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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
1820
   |
Posted - 2013.10.05 12:14:00 -
[61] - Quote
X ATM092 wrote:[...]Adjusting those with a sale is identical to creating them.
Technically true, but the main distinction is who gets those extra ones initially.
http://wiki.eveonline.com/en/wiki/User:Akita_T
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
1820
|
Posted - 2013.10.07 06:24:00 -
[62] - Quote
Any guesses as to what this second spike these last few days was caused by?
http://wiki.eveonline.com/en/wiki/User:Akita_T
Build your own EVE PC
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Diomedes Calypso
Aetolian Armada
141
|
Posted - 2013.10.07 20:28:00 -
[63] - Quote
Akita T wrote:Any guesses as to what this second spike these last few days was caused by?
"pushing on a string"
A monetary policy of CCP is waning in effectiveness.
The CCP board had some initial success expanding the supply of that special type of currency , PLEX (a hard currency backed by game time) through lower cost at the fed(ccp) to those that infused that type of currency in hopes of avoiding a deflation of active accounts.
The will need to result in a QE , quantitative easing using a direct infusion of the PLEX currency into the markets or let the ISK/PlEX price rise to a ration where players begin to change their demand behavior
---
I might explore this model, albeit imperfect, later - it would be a useful exercise in terms of giving yet another angle of perception for those who aren't looking for a single answer but yearn for any clue of nuances and ability to make incrementally better educated guesses by the abilty of different models to set caps on an element used in a different model. |
Claire Voyant
142
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Posted - 2013.10.08 02:47:00 -
[64] - Quote
Diomedes Calypso wrote:"pushing on a string"
I would guess that a bigger factor is the highly visible but extremely short-term nature of the intervention. It was over before most people knew it was happening. With a clear end of the intervention, there is no reason the expect further action by CCP so prices returned to previous levels.
Contrast that with the previously disclosed intervention by Dr. E to sell confiscated PLEX on the Eve market for isk. It depressed prices, but no one was really sure what the cause was. No one knew when it started or when it ended so speculators were scared away from running prices up too high afterwards. |
mynnna
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
1912
|
Posted - 2013.10.08 04:41:00 -
[65] - Quote
Akita T wrote:Any guesses as to what this second spike these last few days was caused by?
PLEX sales are not and never have been effective long term price controls, nor (I suspect) are they meant to be. Players just choose to assume they are and explain away their ineffectiveness in that regard by claiming EyjoG doesn't know what he's doing. As that's the case, this isn't a spike, merely the expected and rapid return to normal.
Member of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal |
Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
1820
|
Posted - 2013.10.08 09:26:00 -
[66] - Quote
mynnna wrote:Akita T wrote:Any guesses as to what this second spike these last few days was caused by? [...]As that's the case, this isn't a spike, merely the expected and rapid return to normal.
Oh, so you mean the momentary back-towards-ex-normal dip was some short-lived CCP intervention? I suppose it might as well be the case.
However, if that's true, did we reach a consensus as to what the initial price hike trend was all about (and how long might it last) ?
"Sorry, I'm sort of out of the loop these days because of him..."
Emoteicon: (pointing at excrement-splashing screaming baby on the table nearby)
http://wiki.eveonline.com/en/wiki/User:Akita_T
Build your own EVE PC
http://oldforums.eveonline.com/?a=topic&threadID=1559734 |
Cameron Freerunner
Long Jump.
39
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Posted - 2013.10.08 16:17:00 -
[67] - Quote
X ATM092 wrote:The idea that CCP is sitting on a pile of confiscated PLEX doesn't make any kind of sense once you actually think about it. [snip] It's much more likely what CCP meant was they bought PLEX with confiscated isk to sell at a later date.
If they bought the PLEX, they'd be propping up the price by reducing supply. If they sold them later, they'd be keeping the cost down by increasing supply. That would put them on both sides of the equation and would imply that there is a price range that they're trying to maintain.
Dr. E (in the fanfest video linke by Bobby) says specifically that they aren't aiming for a specific price. However, he doesn't really explain how that jibes with the concept of intervening in the PLEX market. If they're bringing the price down, they may not be aiming for a number, but they're aiming for something. I'd love to know what that something is. He also states that they have ~10k PLEX. While it may not be common for people to hold on to PLEX, I know at least one person who bought ~100 when the price dipped to ~500mil a while back. He intended to use them for subscriptions, but held them so that he could liquidate at will during price spikes. Anyone trading in PLEX is likely to be doing the same, so it seems reasonable for there to be stacks sitting around in extraordinarily wealthy RMTers wallets (and those guys don't get warnings btw, just insta perma bans). |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
4376
|
Posted - 2013.10.08 20:27:00 -
[68] - Quote
Cameron Freerunner wrote:
Dr. E (in the fanfest video linke by Bobby) says specifically that they aren't aiming for a specific price. However, he doesn't really explain how that jibes with the concept of intervening in the PLEX market. If they're bringing the price down, they may not be aiming for a number, but they're aiming for something. I'd love to know what that something is.
They are doing what RL exchanges do: they don't care about the securities values but to keep the daily price variations within a contract enforced minimum and maximum percentage. If a security goes ballistic, they suspend its trading.
CCP know PLEX is one of the top speculative items, played by the "big guys".
They want to prevent PLEX spiking like crazy, its inherent value is so large that it could cause major ripple effects on other markets. Plus large RMTers could also get benefits by being able to make lots of ISK in a "legit way" by leveraging on illicit ISK stashes.
CCP have created a single point of failure in their economy, this is why they watch it like hawks.
Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |
Claire Voyant
142
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Posted - 2013.10.08 20:58:00 -
[69] - Quote
Akita T wrote:did we reach a consensus as to what the initial price hike trend was all about (and how long might it last) ?
I don't know about a consensus, but I can try to restate my long-held theory. There is only one long-term price trend in Eve and that is the price of PLEX. It goes up year after year because of "mudflation" which is the incessant growth of of all forms of in-game items including isk. Call it inflation if you look at PLEX in terms of isk, or deflation if you look at it the other way around, the result is the same.
The real interesting question is why do PLEX prices ever go down? In that regard, I am a supply-sider. The influx of PLEX into the game from people that want to spend real-life cash to fly spaceships is the primary cause of short-term price movements. People come into and put money into the game around expansions. Some expansions are more popular than others. The influx of PLEX around the very popular Apocrypha expansion depressed the PLEX market for some months. Incursion combined with the removal of learning skills which caused a massive buying of capital ship skill books not only brought PLEX into the market but took trillions of isk out of the game and almost caused a PLEX price crash.
On the other hand, bad publicity causes PLEX prices to increase. Witness monocle-gate in the summer of 2011. So for the future, expect a small decline during November-December due to the ho-hum nature of the upcoming expansion followed by prices above 600 again early next year. |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
4376
|
Posted - 2013.10.08 23:03:00 -
[70] - Quote
I have written a consistent PLEX market analysis. It indeed shows a years long uptrend.
Reading the article you'll also see "someone" had drawn that trend on May 2012 already.
Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |
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Vis Aldent
Federal Navy Academy
Gallente Federation
3
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Posted - 2013.10.09 16:04:00 -
[71] - Quote
Offer and Demand.
The higher the demand the higher the offer goes on the market that is.
Auction trade are not related in the same way although also affected.
0.9 The Forge - Jita5587,687,667ISKStation< 5 minutes ago
The more people try to buy PLEX from ingame ISK the higher the price goes if there is less offer.
Less offer means that the number of PLEx is less than the number of PLEx in demand, to be purchased.
That means that lots of players made a lot of ISKs, from loot, war, FW or other .
Maybe a lot of production came to be and transfer of products were made into ISK which goes back to buying PLEX.
I could have bought 6 PLEx at $75 even if outside of USA although I'd needed a 'valid' contact there.
That gives the equivalent of about 1.5 -1.25 PLEX.
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Claire Voyant
142
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Posted - 2013.10.09 20:03:00 -
[72] - Quote
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:I have written a consistent PLEX market analysis. It indeed shows a years long uptrend. Reading the article you'll also see "someone" had drawn that trend on May 2012 already.
I see: "The next days will be great days to secure a profit for a large portion of the stock. The remaining part may be left in the market to try and GÇ£let the profits runGÇ¥."
Why would you suggest selling now if you expect the market to break out towards 700 next year? |
Vis Aldent
Federal Navy Academy
Gallente Federation
3
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Posted - 2013.10.17 15:53:00 -
[73] - Quote
Back up to 591m + in Amarr VIII (x17) and Jita IV (x24+) from:
EVE Central 30 Day Pilot's License Extension (PLEX) - Market Browser
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Zifrian
Licentia Ex Vereor
Black Core Alliance
1098
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Posted - 2013.10.20 13:38:00 -
[74] - Quote
Akita T wrote:Any guesses as to what this second spike these last few days was caused by?
That drop and then spike was caused by the PLEX sale on Amazon. It went right back up after it was over.
As for current prices steadily going up, not sure what is going on. Although, there hasn't been a CCP discount sale in awhile, might be part of it since that seems to level out the price.
Maximze your Industry Potential! - Get EVE Isk per Hour! |
Tigerras
Smash Incorporated
25
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Posted - 2013.10.20 13:53:00 -
[75] - Quote
PLEX seem to operate similarly to US Bonds....
Only one agency can create them (Fed or CCP)
They fluctuate in value, but appear to be increasing in value over time. (relative value, vs inflation or plex price)
the Fed/CCP buying or selling them seems to fluctuate the price up and down respectively.
They are backed by a standard, hard value (30 days time, the amount of the bond itself)
PLEX, of course, don't earn interest, unless you count the increase in plex price over time. |
Dirk Decibel
Pator Tech School
Minmatar Republic
44
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Posted - 2013.10.20 14:02:00 -
[76] - Quote
Third char training that is being introduced in a few days will most likely give another push to prices. |
Vis Aldent
Federal Navy Academy
Gallente Federation
4
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Posted - 2013.10.22 18:11:00 -
[77] - Quote
Buy Orders
Region =System - Station =Price =Qty =Expires =Reported Time
Domain [-] 1.0 Amarr VIII (Oris) - Emperor Family Academy (Station) =606,000,000.03 =1 =2014-01-20 =1 minutes ago
http://eve-central.com/home/quicklook.html?typeid=29668#buys |
Dirk Decibel
Pator Tech School
Minmatar Republic
44
|
Posted - 2013.10.23 09:24:00 -
[78] - Quote
Dirk Decibel wrote:Third char training that is being introduced in a few days will most likely give another push to prices.
Dunno if this is what's pushing it up but it IS going up for sure :D |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
4453
|
Posted - 2013.10.23 13:39:00 -
[79] - Quote
Claire Voyant wrote:Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:I have written a consistent PLEX market analysis. It indeed shows a years long uptrend. Reading the article you'll also see "someone" had drawn that trend on May 2012 already. I see: "The next days will be great days to secure a profit for a large portion of the stock. The remaining part may be left in the market to try and GÇ£let the profits runGÇ¥." Why would you suggest selling now if you expect the market to break out towards 700 next year?
Because position and money management are as if not more important than knowing when to open a position.
A RL trader would not keep all his risk capital in the market till the end.
A RL trader is in for the long haul so he gradually secures his profits with progressive take profits.
A RL trader knows to buy low and sell high.
So, when price is high enough and profits are OK, the trader sells, well knowing that price swings. So the current higher high will become an higher low shortly after, where to re-purchase stock at lower price with expectation for the next higher swing to provide for a "sell high" further opportunity.
So, since I am a RL trader, I just do that in EvE too, and enjoy the results. 
Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |
ngaly
Pator Tech School
Minmatar Republic
55
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Posted - 2013.10.23 17:50:00 -
[80] - Quote
One reason among others for increasing PLEX prices is tolerated RMT. More people are buying ISK directly from players using the lottery trick instead of only buying PLEX/GTC => PLEX supply in-game decreases => PLEX price in-game increases. |
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Vis Aldent
Federal Navy Academy
Gallente Federation
4
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Posted - 2013.10.23 18:08:00 -
[81] - Quote
ngaly wrote:One reason among others for increasing PLEX prices is tolerated RMT. More people are buying ISK directly from players using the lottery trick instead of only buying PLEX/GTC => PLEX supply in-game decreases => PLEX price in-game increases.
To 618,003,000.00 ISK Buy Orders price x 10 in Jita IV 4 Navy Plant 0 minutes ago.
Any link(s) to CCP's take down on those tricks or ongoing reports directly sent and addressed to them (personally or corporately)? |
X ATM092
Clan Shadow Wolf
Fatal Ascension
107
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Posted - 2013.10.23 19:25:00 -
[82] - Quote
Vis Aldent wrote:ngaly wrote:One reason among others for increasing PLEX prices is tolerated RMT. More people are buying ISK directly from players using the lottery trick instead of only buying PLEX/GTC => PLEX supply in-game decreases => PLEX price in-game increases. To 618,003,000.00 ISK Buy Orders price x 10 in Jita IV 4 Navy Plant 0 minutes ago. Any link(s) to CCP's take down on those tricks or ongoing reports directly sent and addressed to them (personally or corporately)?
CCP doesn't recognise giving someone an out of game reward that can be easily turned into in game currency in exchange for an out of game service as RMT, even though it qualifies by any idiots definition. Blink is therefore allowed to RMT with impunity, so long as they only exchange $ for blink credit (and then blink credit for isk). |
Diomedes Calypso
Aetolian Armada
146
|
Posted - 2013.10.24 00:27:00 -
[83] - Quote
X ATM092 wrote:Vis Aldent wrote:ngaly wrote:One reason among others for increasing PLEX prices is tolerated RMT. More people are buying ISK directly from players using the lottery trick instead of only buying PLEX/GTC => PLEX supply in-game decreases => PLEX price in-game increases. To 618,003,000.00 ISK Buy Orders price x 10 in Jita IV 4 Navy Plant 0 minutes ago. Any link(s) to CCP's take down on those tricks or ongoing reports directly sent and addressed to them (personally or corporately)? CCP doesn't recognise giving someone an out of game reward that can be easily turned into in game currency in exchange for an out of game service as RMT, even though it qualifies by any idiots definition. Blink is therefore allowed to RMT with impunity, so long as they only exchange $ for blink credit (and then blink credit for isk).
To the extent people buy less Plex because they get they get 100million more bang for their buck buying GTCs from SOMER, ccp there would be less PLEX coming to market.
The offset to that is that all of that gambling motivates more $ being used to buy plex.....
... we can all take wild ass guesses of our own.. My wild ass guess , from personal knowledge of peoples behavior in the world beyond EVE,
I'd certainly guess that there are a lot more people using $ to buy plex because of the intoxication of wanting to gamble more and having lost their isk.. than there are people who are tight with their $ and look for the most efficient way to use real $ to buy pixels.
That would mean more plex coming onto the market.. which would certainly be a force towards lowering the price of plex.... a force that direction.. they're helping plex/isk price from rising even more.
... as for the RMT issue... yeah SOMER Blink is finding a way to use ISK as a motivation to get people to buy gametime from them instead of from others. They get more $ in commisions from the use of isk . By the same token, given my wild ass guess above (which i'm almos certain is correct).. .. they help CCP sell GTCs to a crowd of people beyond those that would have bought them without the gambling .
Clearly CCP wants to sell more net GTCS ... and clearly CCP already anticpated paying $ commisions to GTC sellers.
The people running SOMER Blink are putting in real Out of game human hours into the operation of the marketing /gaming site.. doing programing etc. In that sense they are getting paid for their time doing Meta work that helps the game with $ ...
yes I understand how the use of isk to get more "work" could be called a ISK to $ shift in the end. BUT, the work involved and the fact that ONLY somer employees are profitting that way really tempers the idea that this is a way that people can turn isk into $ without work that is worth real world $
tempers.. that means it is not as starkly clear..... softens the effect. or whatever
SOMER has a clear way of making the ISK that they use as bonuses with GTC purchases ... they're not buying it with $ from third parties. Basically.. those that lose in auctions are paying people who buy GTCs at the auctions extra isk along with their purchase.
It is a clever marketing scheme but.. not anyway to make real $ without real life work.
Removing this signature seems to be beyond my UI navagation capacity. -á(I suppose I could just use a -á" . ") |
Vis Aldent
Federal Navy Academy
Gallente Federation
4
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Posted - 2013.10.24 14:36:00 -
[84] - Quote
1 Buy Order at 625,100,842.32 Jita IV 4 Navy Plant makes me want to buy it.
I'd loose on important collateral if I didn't although the relative value of the collateral is much lower.
The relative amount by which the value is lower can be or could be derived from this thread:
Calculations of Costs Compared to Ingame Income to Derive the actual amount of real Ingame Profit.
Regardless, the ISK can also be used for legally purchasing Pilot on the EVE forums Character Bazaar.
However, I understand that most just like to try the game and therefore requires funding to pay for it.
Whether it is for pure enjoyment, the curiosity of satisfying scientific facts or comparison.
It is related to investments put in the game. |
Dirk Decibel
Pator Tech School
Minmatar Republic
45
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Posted - 2013.10.27 21:32:00 -
[85] - Quote
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00A2CI8LE/ref=dsvrt_review_asin_detail
This for real? 3 PLEX for 5 dollah??? If it is I can imagine this having a rather profound effect on PLEX pricing.... |
Diomedes Calypso
Aetolian Armada
146
|
Posted - 2013.10.28 04:27:00 -
[86] - Quote
Dirk Decibel wrote:http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00A2CI8LE/ref=dsvrt_review_asin_detail
This for real? 3 PLEX for 5 dollah??? If it is I can imagine this having a rather profound effect on PLEX pricing....
You didn't read it right.. there are different tabs to press for different packages..
for 5$ you get 30 days instead of 14 days free trial and you get the collector shuttle.. basicaly it's 5$ for 1/2 a plex and for new accounts only.
The other packages weren't that speciall came to $15 ish per plex
. |
Lipbite
Express Hauler
1122
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Posted - 2013.10.28 05:25:00 -
[87] - Quote
I see PLEX market is being brutally manipulated: during last 3 days someone is fulfilling hundreds of buying orders in Jita including those 30-50mil below normal cost (630mil => 580mil).
Either it's Russian oligarch (again) - or CCP themselves use artificially generated PLEXes to suppress prices growth.
Want cheaper plex? Just place 580-585mil buy order in Jita next Friday - even if normal price will be 650mil. |
Bad Bobby
Bring Me Sunshine
In Tea We Trust
277
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Posted - 2013.10.28 06:47:00 -
[88] - Quote
Dirk Decibel wrote:http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00A2CI8LE/ref=dsvrt_review_asin_detail
This for real? 3 PLEX for 5 dollah??? If it is I can imagine this having a rather profound effect on PLEX pricing....
CCP Guard wrote:Hey everyone.
It appears that Amazon, who operate as a third party re-seller for some of our products, put the wrong price on a package of PLEX and then quickly pulled the offer once the error was discovered.
A few thousand extra PLEX are in circulation as a result which is not enough to cause any significant or lasting impact on the in-game markets.
Source: https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&m=3794242#post3794242
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Claire Voyant
142
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Posted - 2013.10.28 11:38:00 -
[89] - Quote
It get's better: https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&m=3795441#post3795441
CCP Falcon wrote:Jalebi wrote:CCP has started banning people who bought PLEX from the erroneous Amazon sale. Brace for impact! For reference, if anyone finds their accounts disabled due to this, then please file a support ticket to have the issue cleared up. We are not banning people's accounts due to this, and any action taken against an account because of this issue has been triggered automatically due to our billing system being notified of a charge-back by the third party retailer. If you find your EVE account locked down due to this, please file a support ticket under the billing category and the GM Team will be happy to help. 
So let's say Amazon is out something like $50,000, which is enough to get someone fired. Amazon has terms in their standard "agreement" that says that they can reverse sales if there was an incorrect price listed. There is also a mechanism in place for resellers to notify CCP if PLEX were purchased fraudulently so CCP can freeze the account. Amazon clearly wants its money back and CCP would probably like to avoid the bad publicity involved in seizing in-game assets or banning accounts for something that was clearly the fault of its reseller.
Let's just say that this is probably going to be worked out between Amazon and CCP at some high level. My guess is that CCP will probably end up eating most of it. So maybe Dr. E is going to have to dip into his stash again? Call it an accidental intervention? No harm done really. |
Elizabeth Norn
Nornir Research
96
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Posted - 2013.10.28 16:47:00 -
[90] - Quote
Claire Voyant wrote:
Let's just say that this is probably going to be worked out between Amazon and CCP at some high level. My guess is that CCP will probably end up eating most of it. So maybe Dr. E is going to have to dip into his stash again? Call it an accidental intervention? No harm done really.
You think CCP will take a loss because someone at Amazon messed up?
.
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