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Thread Statistics | Show CCP posts - 7 post(s) |

Avon
188
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Posted - 2014.03.24 11:06:00 -
[1] - Quote
Tippia wrote:Salvos Rhoska wrote:It is important to remember the very small % of the player base that has actually voted for them. Representation is proportional to how many votes they get, and since the overwhelming majority of players have not voted for them, they cannot be said to represent the interests of those who have not voted for them (ie: the overwhelming majority of the EVE player base). Sure they can. In fact, that's exactly how sampling works. You can get representativeness from as little as 1%. Quote:But it cannot be said that they represent the majority interests of players, even combined throughout the entire panel. Thats just a cold hard fact. No, it's not, unless you can demonstrate that the voters are not a representative sample of the community as a whole.
Tippia, was that an intentional misrepresentation of the significance that can be attributed to sampling, or did you just accidentally overlook the importance of the sample being random?
A statistical sample from a 1% group can be significant so long as it is a random sample. Voters are members of a subset we could call "people who can be arsed to vote". There is no indication that the subset is representative of the group as a whole (or a random sample from that group) and as such we have to discount extrapolation on the grounds of bias.
The disenfranchised (willful or not) are not represented (nor could they be) and any presumption of their views is exactly that. You can't make a legitimate statistical extrapolation from a subset. |

Avon
188
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Posted - 2014.03.24 11:20:00 -
[2] - Quote
Tippia wrote:Salvos Rhoska wrote:Tippia, I lay claim to represent your interests.
According to your logic, you have no means to disprove that Yes I have: I simply notice that you don't and say GÇ£no, you don'tGÇ¥. And that's entirely your logic, not mine because I have no idea where on earth you got that idea from. Quote:You fail to understand both the mechanics of elective representation, as well as the scientific process of constructing and defining a sample grouping that is proportinately an accurate representation of the whole. Nope. You simply fail to understand what representativeness means and make generalisations from one (assumed) situation. You are also (as always) confusing yourself by trying to squeeze out more straw men out of what I say rather than read what I actually write. 14% of a population of 450,000 is more than enough to have a representative sample that can produce a fully representative council. Have a look at your TV the next time there's an election where you live, and you'll see this in practice. Thus, the representatives can very easily both represent and be said to represent the interests of those who did not vote, and since they can elicit and pass on comments from everyone, they can equally easily both represent and be said to represent the interests of those who did not vote for them, specifically. Avon wrote:Tippia, was that an intentional misrepresentation of the significance that can be attributed to sampling, or did you just accidentally overlook the importance of the sample being random? Nope. It was a rejection of the categorical statement that a small sample absolutely cannot be representative.
Good try, but you missed the important bit. To be fair though, at least you went to the effort of using a lot of words to hide the fact.
Until 51% of the eve population post here to disagree with me we will just have to assume that they do agree. |

Avon
188
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Posted - 2014.03.24 11:25:00 -
[3] - Quote
Tippia wrote:Avon wrote:Good try, but you missed the important bit. Nope. But nice try making it appear as if I did without offering anything to support your claim. Actually, no. It was a pretty feeble attempt.
I don't have to support my claim, it is perfectly clear that your reply did not address the key point.
Also, my post got a like, so I shall extrapolate that to mean everyone agrees with me and no-one agrees with you. Seems legit. |

Avon
188
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Posted - 2014.03.24 11:28:00 -
[4] - Quote
Tippia wrote:Avon wrote:I don't have to support my claim Wrong.
Are you trying to hold me to a higher standard than yourself?
Seems a touch unfair. |

Avon
188
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Posted - 2014.03.24 11:33:00 -
[5] - Quote
Tippia wrote:Avon wrote:Are you trying to hold me to a higher standard than yourself? Nope. Ok, I'll be nice to you: your key point was besides the point because it presumed I was making a different point than you thought I was making (GǪthat's a lot of points). My response was that no, that was not the point I was making.
Okay, you win
https://www.ma.utexas.edu/users/mks/statmistakes/biasedsampling.html
"Drawing a conclusion from a biased sample is one form of extrapolation: because the sampling method systematically excludes certain parts of the population under consideration, the inferences only apply to the subpopulation which has actually been sampled." |

Avon
188
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Posted - 2014.03.24 11:37:00 -
[6] - Quote
Tippia wrote:GǪand just because samples can be biased doesn't mean they must be. The question is always Gǣis the sample biased?Gǥ Presuming that it is is just as wrong as presuming that it is not.
I even went to the effort of addressing that for you, but once again for the hard of thinking:
"Drawing a conclusion from a biased sample is one form of extrapolation: because the sampling method systematically excludes certain parts of the population under consideration, the inferences only apply to the subpopulation which has actually been sampled." |

Avon
188
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Posted - 2014.03.24 11:46:00 -
[7] - Quote
Tippia wrote:Sure it can. After all, that's the whole point of sampling and of representativeness.
Ah, I see the source of your confusion. You are mixing up statistical representation with elected representatives.
You could probably even fool some people with that. Clever bit of sophism there. |

Avon
188
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Posted - 2014.03.24 12:07:00 -
[8] - Quote
Tippia wrote: Actually, what I'm saying is this:
The 14% that vote can be a fully representative cross-section of the entire EVE population.
I know what you are saying, I'm just pointing out that you are wrong.
All they can be is representative of the subset group "people who vote". It's just basic statistics.
HOWEVER,
If you said: "Under a democratic system of elected representatives which accepts a 14% turnout as a legitimate threshold, the views of the representatives are an indication of the mindset of the electorate as a whole." I would agree. That's democracy.
Any link between the two is a fallacy.
Politics and statistics are two very different things. The truth is mathematics; fortunately politics is not about truth.
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Avon
188
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Posted - 2014.03.24 12:10:00 -
[9] - Quote
Tippia wrote:Salvos Rhoska wrote:@Tippia: Prove the CSM council elected by 14% of the population, represents the entire population. Why should I?
Heh, what did I say before about holding other people to a higher standard?
Go on, indulge us. Post your proof. |

Avon
188
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Posted - 2014.03.24 12:16:00 -
[10] - Quote
Tippia wrote:Avon wrote:Heh, what did I say before about holding other people to a higher standard?
Go on, indulge us. Post your proof. That's just it: I never claimed that they did represent the entire population, only that they can. Exactly how that can be done has already been explained, and you can indulge in it at will. So my response to what you said about higher standards still stands. Can Gëá must Gëá is.
And, once more, you are wrong.
It isn't a case of Can Gëá must Gëá is; just can't.
Your extrapolation can only ever apply to the subset sampled.
It isn't even a complicated point. |
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Avon
188
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Posted - 2014.03.24 12:22:00 -
[11] - Quote
Tippia wrote:Avon wrote:And, once more, you are wrong.
It isn't a case of Can Gëá must Gëá is; just can't. Prove it. Demonstrate how it is in every way impossible for the sample to be representative. Not just GÇ£it is likely that there is a systematic bias in the subsetGÇ¥ but that it is impossible for the subset to be unbiased. Quote:Your extrapolation can only ever apply to the subset sampled. GǪand the subset sampled can be representative of the population as a whole. Salvos Rhoska wrote:I see no proof anywhere. Then learn to read.
Yeah, and the flying spaghetti monster *may* get elected to the next CSM.
If we are moving from statistics to probability I am well up for that. You may want to take a quick 101 first though. Get back to me when you are ready. |

Avon
189
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Posted - 2014.03.24 12:32:00 -
[12] - Quote
Salvos Rhoska wrote:This claim was made by her here: Tippia wrote:The 14% that vote can be a fully representative cross-section of the entire EVE population. She has not proven this to be true.
For the assertion to be true a total of 0 players out of the entire playerbase must hold views not represented For the assertion to be false a total of 1 player out of the entire playerbase must hold views not represented
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Avon
189
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Posted - 2014.03.24 12:34:00 -
[13] - Quote
Tippia wrote:Avon wrote:Yeah, and the flying spaghetti monster *may* get elected to the next CSM. Yes, but he's in an NPC corp so it's highly unlikely.
I didn't say it was likely, just that it was a possibility. Much in the way you justify what you say. |

Avon
190
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Posted - 2014.03.24 12:40:00 -
[14] - Quote
Benny Ohu wrote:Salvos Rhoska wrote:I simply state that no CSM that I do not vote for, represents me. As I am part of that full representation, if I make the assertion that any of the CSM do not represent me, I have negated the possibility for that body to represent the full population of EVE.
With this simple act, I have refuted the possibility of this "can" situation ever occuring, or ever being true.
It CANNOT be true, as long as I do not acknowledge that I am fully represented. i think in that situation you're being represented by darius iii
oh snap |

Avon
190
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Posted - 2014.03.24 13:11:00 -
[15] - Quote
Tippia wrote:Salvos Rhoska wrote:Where have you proven this? In the discussion starting from where you made the claim that it was impossible and onwards. Again, the problem is that you're expecting proof that they do, when what I said is that they can. You're not seeing it because you're assuming the wrong modality..
Actually you should be using the modal verb "could" rather than "can" as you are expressing a possibility rather than an ability. You aren't saying they are currently able to fully represent the whole playerbase, just that the situation is possible.
Added: Unless your assertion is that they *do* fully represent the playerbase, in which case "can" would be the correct usage. |

Avon
190
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Posted - 2014.03.24 13:18:00 -
[16] - Quote
Could |

Avon
191
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Posted - 2014.03.24 13:29:00 -
[17] - Quote
Let's just agree that the situation *could* arise with a probability of 1/(total number of actual players) and be done with it.
It *could* happen, it is just bloody unlikely.
Importantly, it isn't the case right now and any assertion to the contrary would need to be backed up. The very minimum would be a bar graph but extra merit will be awarded for a pie chart made from actual pie and sent to my home address. |

Avon
193
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Posted - 2014.03.24 13:47:00 -
[18] - Quote
Salvos Rhoska wrote:Even that claim to a tiny margin of "can/could" has no evidence to support that it actually ever "can/could". Its an empty claim, with no method of proof.
It is just statistics mate:
1/(Total number of individual players) is the probability of the CSM fully representing the entire playerbase. It doesn't require proof of method, it is self contained.
I would agree that the inherent unlikelihood makes the modal verb "could" more appropriate than "can" and that the use of the second variant puts a misleading amount of weight on the possibility.
Has it happened? Very unlikely Could it happen? Very unlikely Can it happen? Well, yes there a defined probability = very unlikely.
By using a modal verb which implies a positive outcome to an unlikely event the argument was cleverly skewed, but regardless the probability remains the same (i.e. bugger all) |

Avon
196
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Posted - 2014.03.24 14:03:00 -
[19] - Quote
If the CSM works anything like Tippia and myself then it doesn't really matter exactly how many people they represent.
We had opposing points of view.
We thrashed it out.
We established a common ground around the subject of pie.
That, dear readers, is what politics is all about. |

Avon
196
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Posted - 2014.03.24 14:07:00 -
[20] - Quote
Salvos Rhoska wrote:Avon wrote:It is just statistics mate: Even in statistics, there exists such a quantity (or lack thereof) as 0 (zero). Somethings can never happen, no matter what contrived circumstances you set as a premise for them to do so. Nor does that eliminate the onus to prove that that set of circumstances can ever actually come to pass, no matter with how small a margin of likelihood.
You are mathematically contradicting your own argument.
If you claim that the CSM can't represent everyone then you establish that at least 1 person must not be represented. You have defined that it is a non-zero sum, therefore the probability is as I stated. |
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Avon
197
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Posted - 2014.03.24 14:21:00 -
[21] - Quote
Salvos Rhoska wrote:Avon wrote:You are mathematically contradicting your own argument.
If you claim that the CSM can't represent everyone then you establish that at least 1 person must not be represented. You have defined that it is a non-zero sum, therefore the probability is as I stated. She cannot prove the probability that the conditions she stipulated can/could occur. With no proof that it can/could occur, the probability remains at zero. As to the 1 person not being represented, that is sufficient, in current context, to evidence that the CSM does not represent the entirety of the EVE population. And there is no proof that there will not always be that 1 person sufficient to disprove those conditions in future.
I'm not absolutely sure that you understand what mathematical probability means. |

Avon
197
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Posted - 2014.03.24 14:25:00 -
[22] - Quote
Salvos Rhoska wrote:Avon wrote:I'm not absolutely sure that you understand what mathematical probability means. Calculate and prove to me then the realistic probability of the CSM panel representing the entirety of the EVE population.
1 / (total number of individual players) |

Avon
197
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Posted - 2014.03.24 14:30:00 -
[23] - Quote
Tippia wrote:Salvos Rhoska wrote:Calculate and prove to me then the realistic probability of the CSM panel representing the entirety of the EVE population. You're moving the goalposts. The probability that all 450,000(ish) TQ accounts randomly agree on a matter is 1:2^450,000(ish) (or, more accurately, the probability that they hold at least one opinion on the matter, to the power of 450,000). This is a non-zero value. If they all agree, the opinion they all hold on the matter is represented on the CSM.
Even if they disagree, so long as at least one member of the CSM holds the same viewpoint they are still represented
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Avon
197
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Posted - 2014.03.24 14:40:00 -
[24] - Quote
Salvos Rhoska wrote:Tippia wrote:Salvos Rhoska wrote:All it takes, is one dissenter. Nope. That just invalidates that particular case, not the probability itself You have not invalidated that particular case always being the case, however. You might as well try to argue that the chance gravity will magically turn off is 1/X. There is no figure small enough to represent that probability. That is called 0.
You would have to define the parameters of magic before we could calculate the probability. |

Avon
197
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Posted - 2014.03.24 14:43:00 -
[25] - Quote
Salvos Rhoska wrote:Avon wrote:Remember, if the CSM / Government takes your interests into consideration, they are representing you whether you voted for them or not. That part I do not agree on, and that is the division between us. We will have to agree to disagree.
Fortunately facts don't require your agreement to remain true. |

Avon
199
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Posted - 2014.03.24 18:10:00 -
[26] - Quote
This thread sure has been derailed from the important concept of someone delivering me some pie.
Quite disappointed.
Now, enough of all the silly "he said, she said" - it should be clear by now which people consider thinking optional and they should be left to stew in their own juices rather than being continually grilled .... oh, bugger, I'm thinking about pie again, aren't I? |
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