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Thread Statistics | Show CCP posts - 1 post(s) |
Macewind Kenobii
Security Caldary inc
0
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Posted - 2014.08.13 05:49:00 -
[1] - Quote
I invented drones My skills are 50%
I Run 100 jobs and only 20 bpc t2 susessful!!!!!! 
before fuking crius patch i run 100 jobs and 40 - 60 bpc t2 sussesful
ccp first nerf loot missions,loot dedcomplex
now invention
Next nerf ? Maybe incursions? Wh?
Heyyy ccp you patchs are scrap... |
Jarnis McPieksu
Habitual Euthanasia
Pandemic Legion
534
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Posted - 2014.08.13 06:19:00 -
[2] - Quote
While I'm not one of tinfoil hat types and while I do not have firm data, I have also observed some oddball invention runs... 20 copies of LSE II, 3 success and the likes. With ~49% success probability listead.
I guess I should pull the history and do the math over the past few hundred invention jobs, but :effort:
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Tau Cabalander
Retirement Retreat
Working Stiffs
4030
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Posted - 2014.08.13 06:32:00 -
[3] - Quote
Given how much faster and easier it is to invent, do you really care? |
SJ Astralana
Syncore
58
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Posted - 2014.08.13 06:49:00 -
[4] - Quote
Statistics is a ***** 
Hyperdrive your production business: Eve Production Manager |
Elena Thiesant
Sun Micro Systems
1402
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Posted - 2014.08.13 07:07:00 -
[5] - Quote
Macewind Kenobii wrote:I invented drones My skills are 50% I Run 100 jobs and only 20 bpc t2 susessful!!!!!!
Cool, now keep track for the next 900 and report back afterwards.
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suid0
Habitual Euthanasia
Pandemic Legion
139
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Posted - 2014.08.13 07:24:00 -
[6] - Quote
I did an invention run the other day and got 9/10 successful.. thank you CCP for this nerf, best yet.
the entire enemy support fleet is dead except for one interdictor a titan could easily finish off with drones
-á--áCommander Ted |
Ms Forum Alt
Royal Amarr Institute
Amarr Empire
3
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Posted - 2014.08.13 07:59:00 -
[7] - Quote
Elena Thiesant wrote:
Cool, now keep track for the next 900 and report back afterwards.
You know how much bs I think this kind of thing is? It wouldn't surprise me if there's some dicking about going on server side by CCP on this, or some basic errors. For example, it's very easy to make a random number generator or use an existing generator that doesn't have a uniform distribution. So I tend to take the probabilities with a pinch of salt.
Regardless, after 100 runs I would expect it to be very close to the average as it would tend towards it with each run you do, unless the dice are loaded or broken, in which case I would expect it to behave chaotically as occasionally reported here.
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erg cz
Sliperer
106
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Posted - 2014.08.13 08:02:00 -
[8] - Quote
suid0 wrote:I did an invention run the other day and got 9/10 successful.. thank you CCP for this nerf, best yet.
It is because you are minmatar and OP is caldari. Caldari are bad guys. So CCP made a hidden index for all caldari systems, to make them less populated. They want industry to create a "landscape" and at this moment caldari space is one big china, if you look at the industry map. Caldari installation costs are highest, their chances for successfull invention are crap and they are loosing in their civiliar war.
Now seriosly: I think it is like exploration loot. One day you have 9/10, next day you have 2/10 like the OP. |
Owen Levanth
Sagittarius Unlimited Exploration
235
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Posted - 2014.08.13 10:58:00 -
[9] - Quote
Macewind Kenobii wrote:I invented drones My skills are 50% I Run 100 jobs and only 20 bpc t2 susessful!!!!!! before fuking crius patch i run 100 jobs and 40 - 60 bpc t2 sussesful ccp first nerf loot missions,loot dedcomplex now invention Next nerf ? Maybe incursions? Wh? Heyyy ccp you patchs are scrap...
Thanks for your luck, now I know why I had so many succesful T2-battleship BPCs with about 20% chance. I'm not even sure I can build that many T2-battleships! But if I ever get around to building them, I will have to thank you again for the billions your bad luck has made me. 
And now that we've come back from joke town, please learn statistics before posting again. |
Tau Cabalander
Retirement Retreat
Working Stiffs
4031
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Posted - 2014.08.13 11:41:00 -
[10] - Quote
For those keeping score Brock Nelson won the Crius first-post.
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Elena Thiesant
Sun Micro Systems
1402
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Posted - 2014.08.13 12:06:00 -
[11] - Quote
Owen Levanth wrote: I'm not even sure I can build that many T2-battleships!
I'll be very happy to take some of those off your hands if you can't use them all... 
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Owen Levanth
Sagittarius Unlimited Exploration
235
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Posted - 2014.08.13 12:22:00 -
[12] - Quote
Elena Thiesant wrote:Owen Levanth wrote: I'm not even sure I can build that many T2-battleships! I'll be very happy to take some of those off your hands if you can't use them all...
Hah, you wish. Those will be built, just very slowly. |
Hakan MacTrew
MUTED VOID
Takahashi Alliance
862
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Posted - 2014.08.13 13:07:00 -
[13] - Quote
Wormholers have Bob, Inventors have Statistics...
I delivered 20 jobs the other day, average probability was about 35%, all failed. Day before, Same job types and numbers 3 succeses.
Thats probability, nothing is set in stone. It's like complaining at the casino because the law of averages says you should have won.
http://meme-generator.me/media/created/d3r3t8.jpg |
Qoi
Exert Force
83
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Posted - 2014.08.13 14:50:00 -
[14] - Quote
I assume you forged your numbers, but 20 out of 100 for p=0.5 is indeed extremely unlucky.
Quote:
In[1]: Probability[x <= 20, x \[Distributed] BinomialDistribution[100, 0.5]]
Out[1]: 5.57954*10^-10
And your expectation of 40 to 60 is actually pretty good
Quote:
In[2]: Probability[x >= 40 && x <= 60, x \[Distributed] BinomialDistribution[100, 0.5]]
Out[2]: 0.9648
http://eve-industry.org |
Lady Zarrina
Republic Military School
Minmatar Republic
151
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Posted - 2014.08.13 15:05:00 -
[15] - Quote
I have noticed my invention percents seem rather low. Especially my drones?? I know how random works, and I am willing to give it a few more months (I have had real bad streaks last what seems weeks). But, if enough people are seeing bad numbers perhaps something did change?
I really expect it is just the human mind looking for a pattern, especially after a significant event. But, I'm willing to give it a nod so hopefully CCP makes sure nothing nasty happened :)
damn it is hard to delete my signature |
Ginger Barbarella
1990
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Posted - 2014.08.13 15:15:00 -
[16] - Quote
1) WTF does "my skills are 50%" mean? Your related Science skills necessary for Drone invention are T L2 or L3?
2) Invention appears to be working fine from where I sit. No major change noticed here at all, including with drone invention.
3) inb4 random is random
You didn't say one word about your relevant skills or the drones you were attempting to invention, but I'l go ahead and do some testing today for you. Given that my R&D alts are all L4 and L5 in relevant skills, I'll go ahead anyway. I'll repost here with my results later today. FYI, I typically have well over 50% success rates, both before and after Crius.
"Blow it all on Quafe and strippers." --- Sorlac |
Team Bidders
Center for Advanced Studies
Gallente Federation
0
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Posted - 2014.08.13 15:20:00 -
[17] - Quote
The random number generator used by EVE seems to be very uneven. I once installed 11 invention jobs with 50% success chance. All 11 jobs failed. It has actually happened to me twice during my two-year "inventor career".
Now, did I ever have all success on 11 jobs? No, never, ever.
It seems to me that the probability is far from Normal Distribution and kind of skewed towards invention fails. |
Veinnail
FinFleet
Northern Coalition.
102
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Posted - 2014.08.13 15:21:00 -
[18] - Quote
i've seen roughly the same as before crius. I think you just rolled some unlucky dice bro. dont be sads. |
Ginger Barbarella
1990
|
Posted - 2014.08.13 15:30:00 -
[19] - Quote
Team Bidders wrote:The random number generator used by EVE seems to be very uneven. I once installed 11 invention jobs with 50% success chance. All 11 jobs failed. It has actually happened to me twice during my two-year "inventor career".
Now, did I ever have all success on 11 jobs? No, never, ever.
It seems to me that the probability is far from Normal Distribution and kind of skewed towards invention fails.
I think CCP uses the NSA's RNG they sold to RSA for $10mil
"Blow it all on Quafe and strippers." --- Sorlac |
Cyniac
Twilight Star Rangers
207
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Posted - 2014.08.13 16:12:00 -
[20] - Quote
Macewind Kenobii wrote:I invented drones My skills are 50% I Run 100 jobs and only 20 bpc t2 susessful!!!!!! before fuking crius patch i run 100 jobs and 40 - 60 bpc t2 sussesful ccp first nerf loot missions,loot dedcomplex now invention Next nerf ? Maybe incursions? Wh? Heyyy ccp you patchs are scrap...
Heh...
Here is the outcome of my invention runs so far on Crius (Base invention chance 37%)
6/20
14/20
8/20
9/20
3/20
Overall 40/100 which is a bit higher than I expected. It's still a small sample but if I had looked only at my last run I would be screaming bloody murder looking at my second run looks like Crius is really my friend.
Nothing has changed. Random is random.
However by all means, stop inventing now!
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Owen Levanth
Sagittarius Unlimited Exploration
236
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Posted - 2014.08.13 23:00:00 -
[21] - Quote
Team Bidders wrote:The random number generator used by EVE seems to be very uneven. I once installed 11 invention jobs with 50% success chance. All 11 jobs failed. It has actually happened to me twice during my two-year "inventor career".
Now, did I ever have all success on 11 jobs? No, never, ever.
It seems to me that the probability is far from Normal Distribution and kind of skewed towards invention fails.
Counterpoint:
I once had five jobs with a chance of 36% and each of them succeeded. Was quite jawdropping. Of course, the next three jobs all failed and all was well again.
Then I had three battleship jobs with something like 23% chance, all went through at the same time. The next two? One failed, one did not. Then I had one out of four, then nothing from three, then two out of three.
**** happens. Sometimes you get lucky, sometimes not. |
Moonlit Raid
State War Academy
Caldari State
200
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Posted - 2014.08.14 01:52:00 -
[22] - Quote
Tau Cabalander wrote:Given how much faster and easier it is to invent, do you really care?
Cost.
If brute force isn't working, you're just not using enough. |
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ISD Dorrim Barstorlode
ISD Community Communications Liaisons
3315
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Posted - 2014.08.14 22:40:00 -
[23] - Quote
Quote:3. Ranting is prohibited.
A rant is a post that is often filled with angry and counterproductive comments. A free exchange of ideas is essential to building a strong sense of community and is helpful in development of the game and community. Rants are disruptive, and incite flaming and trolling. Please post your thoughts in a concise and clear manner while avoiding going off on rambling tangents.
Thread closed.
ISD Dorrim Barstorlode
Captain
Community Communication Liaisons (CCLs)
Interstellar Services Department |
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