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Wyke Mossari
Staner Industries
24
   |
Posted - 2011.11.27 20:27:00 -
[1] - Quote
My PI Production spreadsheet now includes Player Owned Customs Offices. It dynamically updates it's prices from Eve-Central and production functionality is explained elsewhere. Current Jita prices for all PI materials have been uploaded to Eve Central within the last hour.
POCO build cost (E16) at current market rates is around 104M, it was 100m after DT and 95Million yesterday. Materials are the most significant element of the cost at 85 percent.
Details the current supply situation for P3 & P4 materials, the supply ratio for P4 is shown in column I and columns P V and AB show P3. The lower the number the shorter the supply and hence most profitable items (bright green) for speculation, items in dark green are under supplied but not critically low, items in red are currently over supply compared to likely demand for POCO.
The demand ratios for P3 & P4 to build POCO uses a base line of 1 in 10 low-sec planets needing a new or replacement POCO in the near future. This might seem high but is predominately a base-line to compare relative supply. However, the current supply of P3 & P4 is not even close to satisfying this requirement, there is sufficient supply to replace approximately 3 in every 100 POCO in low-sec and WH systems.
The consequence of this short fall will hit home as the POCO start getting interdicted. POCO have 10 million hit points and I've seen reports that a dozen ship BS fleet can take them down in around 15 mins, which is considered the typical defensive response time. Alliances cannot afford to let their POS supply planets sit idle, they will have to replace them quickly to keep the fuel flowing. A concerted interdiction against POS supply planets will likely make the Oxytopes interdiction look insignificant.
While any interdiction will stress prices of tower fuel, coolant, mechanical parts and robotics, we can also expect P4 rise sharply and those short fall P3 items to literally explode in price.
POCO opens up the opportunity for economic warfare in a way not previously seen in EVE and there is profit to be made in this. |
243636
Science and Trade Institute
Caldari State
0
|
Posted - 2011.11.27 21:04:00 -
[2] - Quote
It will be interesting to see if this tuens out or not.
Either way it looks like a lot of work went into it.
Nice1  |
Alisarina
Center for Advanced Studies
Gallente Federation
15
|
Posted - 2011.11.27 23:07:00 -
[3] - Quote
Thank you very much for updating the sheet. I use it quite regulaly. It is the best I have found out there, assuming Eve-Central is up and running that is :D |
Mantra Achura
Community for Justice
BricK sQuAD.
8
|
Posted - 2011.11.27 23:19:00 -
[4] - Quote
You've done a great work for the community.
I'm using that sheet for several month as a main reference of PI prices.
Keep it up! |
Comdyego
Pator Tech School
Minmatar Republic
5
|
Posted - 2011.11.27 23:28:00 -
[5] - Quote
First id like to say im a big fan of you spreadsheets. The costing looks solid except you might want to cost LP at 2000, which is a more likely number for new items.
I did a calculation on the effect of POCOs on PI Raw Material Demand. I assumed that POCO would be replenished at the same rate as POS's, so I used forge average daily volume (about 155 POSs). Then I calculated the Raw Material Volumes with and without POCOs and compared the two (see Custom Office Gantry Effect sheet). The sheet 'Product Daily Volumes' contains the items that use PI materials for which I calculated Raw Materials. The actual calculation was done in MS SQL Server using the Eve DB Datadump and Market Datadump.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AqV1bpYXPCoTdExFSXdoVkU4NUUzYjhlQ3RiNXM3dHc |
Akrasjel Lanate
Naquatech Conglomerate
199
|
Posted - 2011.11.28 10:19:00 -
[6] - Quote
Nice stuff you have there Wyke.
|
Tahna Rouspel
BWE Special Forces
Rage Alliance
20
|
Posted - 2011.11.29 05:14:00 -
[7] - Quote
You have some nice spreadsheets! Thank you :D |
pmchem
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
92
|
Posted - 2011.11.29 20:50:00 -
[8] - Quote
Yo Wyke I was waiting until postpatch to post in MD, but you probably want to update your taxes. They're way off. Relevant links:
https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=33468&find=unread
http://wiki.eveonline.com/en/wiki/CustomsOffice |
Wyke Mossari
Staner Industries
29
|
Posted - 2011.11.29 21:36:00 -
[9] - Quote
I was waiting for deployment to confirm what was happening about the change of the tax rates, because those on wiki look borked, they are 100 times greater than now e.g.
Quote:
The taxable value are the same for all items in the same tier
Advanced Commodities: 1,350,000.00 ISK
Specialized Commodities: 70,000.00 ISK
Refined Commodities: 9,000.00 ISK
Basic commodities: 500.00 ISK
Planet Resources: 5,00 ISK
However given the fact I cannot play because my foreground strobes off constantly I suggest that people copy the current spread sheet into their own google account and manually edit the tax rates in columns E & F of the "Teir" sheet. |
Tahna Rouspel
BWE Special Forces
Rage Alliance
20
|
Posted - 2011.11.29 21:58:00 -
[10] - Quote
Tax are indeed 100 times higher than pre-patch (In Highsec) |
Wyke Mossari
Staner Industries
29
|
Posted - 2011.11.29 22:07:00 -
[11] - Quote
Tahna Rouspel wrote:Tax are indeed 100 times higher than pre-patch (In Highsec)
So it seems, while the original dev blog said
Quote:Customs Offices in High Sec will remain under the authority of CONCORD who will, in turn, charge doubled import and export taxes
|
Tahna Rouspel
BWE Special Forces
Rage Alliance
20
|
Posted - 2011.11.29 22:17:00 -
[12] - Quote
The big difference comes from the updated value of PI products. Before the patch, tax was a mere 0.1% of the value or close enough, now it's actually a 10% of the market value.
The Interbus CO in my wormhole has tax set at 17%. Before patch, I was paying 200,000 isk per day, now the number will be closer to 5,000,000 isk per day. That's about 30% of my PI profit. |
Ethilia
Freelance Excavation and Resistance
United Outworlders
5
|
Posted - 2011.11.29 22:44:00 -
[13] - Quote
Tahna Rouspel wrote:The big difference comes from the updated value of PI products. Before the patch, tax was a mere 0.1% of the value or close enough, now it's actually a 10% of the market value. The Interbus CO in my wormhole has tax set at 17%. Before patch, I was paying 200,000 isk per day, now the number will be closer to 5,000,000 isk per day. That's about 30% of my PI profit.
Can you list the pre and post patch tax rates per m3? I can't seem to find a reliable source.
|
Tahna Rouspel
BWE Special Forces
Rage Alliance
20
|
Posted - 2011.11.29 22:51:00 -
[14] - Quote
Ethilia wrote:Tahna Rouspel wrote:The big difference comes from the updated value of PI products. Before the patch, tax was a mere 0.1% of the value or close enough, now it's actually a 10% of the market value. The Interbus CO in my wormhole has tax set at 17%. Before patch, I was paying 200,000 isk per day, now the number will be closer to 5,000,000 isk per day. That's about 30% of my PI profit. Can you list the pre and post patch tax rates per m3? I can't seem to find a reliable source.
I can't find the old values, but I can tell you they were rather insignificant.
Here are the new values taken from the updated wiki;
Taxation
Tax % is taken off the material's taxable value.
This value is set by CCP and is based off the market values in November 2011
Import is always half of export tax
The taxable value are the same for all items in the same tier
Advanced Commodities: 1,350,000.00 ISK
Specialized Commodities: 70,000.00 ISK
Refined Commodities: 9,000.00 ISK
Basic commodities: 500.00 ISK
Planet Resources: 5,00 ISK
Custom tax rates can be set based on corp to corp standings, as well as for alliance members or corp members.
The tax is taken from that value. So Quantity * Product Value * Tax rate
Import tax are about 2/3 of the export tax.
This has a big impact for extraction planets. You pay tax to export the P1, then you pay tax to import the P1 to the manufacturing planet, then you pay taxes to export the P2 to space.
I miscalculated my daily tax; it's actually closer to 50% of my total sell value per day; 8 mil off 15 mil. |
Wyke Mossari
Staner Industries
29
|
Posted - 2011.11.29 23:07:00 -
[15] - Quote
The old values are still in my spread sheet, look in the tier tab. |
Ethilia
Freelance Excavation and Resistance
United Outworlders
5
|
Posted - 2011.11.29 23:18:00 -
[16] - Quote
Lets do some maths:
1000 coolant/mech/EU @ 10k pu
Sell value = 10m
Tax:
P1 export = 680k
P1 import = 340k
P2 export = 1.53m
Total tax = 2.55m
Total tax rate = 25.5%
P1 export maths: 85.00 (tax pu) * 1000 (P2 total) * 40/5 (P1/P2 ratio) = 680k
P1 import maths: 42.5 (tax) * 1000 (P2 total) * 40/5 (P1/P2 ratio) = 340k
P2 export maths: 1,530 (tax) * 1000 (P2 total) = 1.53m
* I only include importing 1 type of P1 and assume the manufacturing planet is producing the other P1. (Oops, I accidentilly my secrets   )
I think the P4 export tax is actually 135,000 and not 1,350,000. |
Tahna Rouspel
BWE Special Forces
Rage Alliance
20
|
Posted - 2011.11.29 23:27:00 -
[17] - Quote
From all of this, I would definitely expect an increase of the operating cost of POS. It's difficult to say how much that value will be, but I expect 50% increase easily if not more given the increase in PI costs.
It will take some time for markets to stabilize. |
Cygnet Lythanea
World Welfare Works Association
3
|
Posted - 2011.11.29 23:47:00 -
[18] - Quote
The problem is, given the increase in POS costs, there are likely to be wide ranging repercussions throughout the market. This effectively eliminates new player participation in PI and heavily curtails high and low sec POS operations due to the difficulty in defending POCO units, as they're both easily destroyed by battleships and are unarmed. |
EvilCheez
MisUnderestimated
0
|
Posted - 2011.11.30 00:55:00 -
[19] - Quote
Cygnet Lythanea wrote:The problem is, given the increase in POS costs, there are likely to be wide ranging repercussions throughout the market. This effectively eliminates new player participation in PI and heavily curtails high and low sec POS operations due to the difficulty in defending POCO units, as they're both easily destroyed by battleships and are unarmed.
It does not curtail new player participation in pi. It curtails SOLO player participation.
CCP does not want you to play with yourself !!!
(and yes I am currently in a one man corp but my alt is in rvb so back off) |
Scrapyard Bob
EVE University
Ivy League
410
|
Posted - 2011.11.30 01:03:00 -
[20] - Quote
The tariffs will have zero effect on a new player doing PI. Generally, new players start with P1 harvest worlds where they have little if any ongoing costs and they'll now just need to pay attention to making sure they sell their P1 output for more then the export tariff. For the stuff like Chiral Structures (which were selling for about 680 ISK/u), they'll just need to raise their sell price to 730-750 ISK/u and they'll make the same amount of ISK that they did the day before.
For the higher tier goods - nothing much changes. You need to monitor your input costs and include import/export fees in your profit calculations, then make sure that you sell the output for a profitable price. If the end-user market is not willing to pay that profitable price point, then change your factory world to produce something else that is profitable.
Even with the new tariffs - a lot of P2s are still worth making in a P1->P2 factory world. Other P2s will have to go up in price, unless the P1 inputs get a good bit cheaper. At least half of the P3s are still profitable even with the higher import/export tariffs. Making P4 has always been risky and remains so.
For P3 - you will need to consider whether it's more profitable to buy and import P2, or switch to a P1->P3 style factory world in order to purchase the less expensive P1 inputs. Same choice with P4 production - do you buy and import P3, or do you attempt to build from P2?
The major hurdle that new players face is if they attempt to do PI in lo-sec, without being friendly with the corp that controls the area. Lo-sec PI definitely got a lot riskier. |
Alisarina
Center for Advanced Studies
Gallente Federation
21
|
Posted - 2011.11.30 01:22:00 -
[21] - Quote
As Bob said, you now simply have to monitor taxes alot more than you used to. In the past taxes where pretty much ignored as they hardly ever took a bite out of profitability, and if they did, you just moved onto soemthing more profitable. Now with it being such a large amount and a significant amount of the final products cost, you are forced to pay attention to it.
No more weekend warrior PI crap, you now need to run spread sheets or programs to figure out how much your making or loosing doing a certain thing, which is really what you should of been doing anyways as it's more efficient to use a program rather than working out numbers yourself on a pad of paper (I know..I tried and gave up). |
Tahna Rouspel
BWE Special Forces
Rage Alliance
20
|
Posted - 2011.11.30 01:36:00 -
[22] - Quote
Alisarina wrote:As Bob said, you now simply have to monitor taxes alot more than you used to. In the past taxes where pretty much ignored as they hardly ever took a bite out of profitability, and if they did, you just moved onto soemthing more profitable. Now with it being such a large amount and a significant amount of the final products cost, you are forced to pay attention to it.
No more weekend warrior PI crap, you now need to run spread sheets or programs to figure out how much your making or loosing doing a certain thing, which is really what you should of been doing anyways as it's more efficient to use a program rather than working out numbers yourself on a pad of paper (I know..I tried and gave up).
Spreadsheets are not for everyone. I expect a good chunk of people will simply give up when they see the hefty taxes. |
Tyberius Franklin
Federal Navy Academy
Gallente Federation
23
|
Posted - 2011.11.30 01:41:00 -
[23] - Quote
Tahna Rouspel wrote:Alisarina wrote:As Bob said, you now simply have to monitor taxes alot more than you used to. In the past taxes where pretty much ignored as they hardly ever took a bite out of profitability, and if they did, you just moved onto soemthing more profitable. Now with it being such a large amount and a significant amount of the final products cost, you are forced to pay attention to it.
No more weekend warrior PI crap, you now need to run spread sheets or programs to figure out how much your making or loosing doing a certain thing, which is really what you should of been doing anyways as it's more efficient to use a program rather than working out numbers yourself on a pad of paper (I know..I tried and gave up). Spreadsheets are not for everyone. I expect a good chunk of people will simply give up when they see the hefty taxes.
I'm curious, where do most of the current PI goods come from? Wouldn't the new tax just push floor prices up proportionally and level in a way that leaves highsec profits effectively the same? Or is there enough from low/null alone to make it unprofitable in the long term for some items? |
Tahna Rouspel
BWE Special Forces
Rage Alliance
20
|
Posted - 2011.11.30 01:55:00 -
[24] - Quote
Tyberius Franklin wrote:Tahna Rouspel wrote:Alisarina wrote:As Bob said, you now simply have to monitor taxes alot more than you used to. In the past taxes where pretty much ignored as they hardly ever took a bite out of profitability, and if they did, you just moved onto soemthing more profitable. Now with it being such a large amount and a significant amount of the final products cost, you are forced to pay attention to it.
No more weekend warrior PI crap, you now need to run spread sheets or programs to figure out how much your making or loosing doing a certain thing, which is really what you should of been doing anyways as it's more efficient to use a program rather than working out numbers yourself on a pad of paper (I know..I tried and gave up). Spreadsheets are not for everyone. I expect a good chunk of people will simply give up when they see the hefty taxes. I'm curious, where do most of the current PI goods come from? Wouldn't the new tax just push floor prices up proportionally and level in a way that leaves highsec profits effectively the same? Or is there enough from low/null alone to make it unprofitable in the long term for some items?
Yes, profit will be relative the same once the sell price climb a bit. I know Coolant already went up to 12k.
A lot of people are math averse though, they see that million export tax and already assume they're losing money. |
Kurumia
EVE University
Ivy League
0
|
Posted - 2011.11.30 02:01:00 -
[25] - Quote
I am just curious about one thing. Won't the Interbus offices all be gone in a week anyway, since anyone can blow them up just for kicks? |
EvilCheez
MisUnderestimated
1
|
Posted - 2011.11.30 02:26:00 -
[26] - Quote
not in hisec -- wh and ls yes |
Cygnet Lythanea
World Welfare Works Association
4
|
Posted - 2011.11.30 02:35:00 -
[27] - Quote
Tahna Rouspel wrote:
Yes, profit will be relative the same once the sell price climb a bit. I know Coolant already went up to 12k.
A lot of people are math averse though, they see that million export tax and already assume they're losing money.
The problem is not so much the prices on the market as the increase in overhead for doing other operations.
Example: POS profits for non-low/null sec are pretty thin, but represent almost half of the T2 mods sold on the market, according to some estimates. Small corps use PI to reduce overhead by producing their own fuel and either stockpiling or selling any surplus.
That surplus now, though, actually reduces short term profits due to the increased price of exports, assuming that the product does not sell immediately, and creates difficulties in acquiring materials, as too much of the corps money quickly becomes tied up in merchandise which is slow to move.
The net result is that T2 prices rise across the board as players give up due to low perceived returns and T2 becomes a rich man's game again, just like in the bad old days of the BPO lottery. This reduction in T2 production would pretty much be the death blow to the moon goo market, causing major alliances to loose money as their primary export goes into freefall.
And it will squeeze out new players, and the simple reason is that most of them will set up a single P1 planet, and see their first PI op costs more to export than their ship does, at little profit. I ran a one day load of oxygen and it cost more then most destroyers to export. I'm sure if i wait a while it will sell at a (small) profit, once sales taxes get done with it we're looking at maybe 50%, but that's assuming that the market remains stable (which is a joke in PI) and that I'm patient enough not to sell to buy orders (something I remember NOT being as a newb) at which point you may actually very well BE taking a loss. |
Ptraci
3 R Corporation
206
|
Posted - 2011.11.30 06:16:00 -
[28] - Quote
Kurumia wrote:I am just curious about one thing. Won't the Interbus offices all be gone in a week anyway, since anyone can blow them up just for kicks?
10 million shield HP is more than just for kicks. While it's certainly do-able by any gang with time to kill, you have to want to do it. You also have to not get blobbed while doing it. These things don't exactly insta-pop. |
Callduron
18
|
Posted - 2011.11.30 13:24:00 -
[29] - Quote
I think people are underestimating just how much these will get blown up.
I've flown with several fleets from a number of different corps and I've run a couple of fleets in low sec. Let me explain how I think FCs will see these things. (More experienced FCs very welcome to chime in!)
A major problem with FCing is people getting bored. It's a constant struggle between finding a suitable target and spending too long flying about not shooting anything. POCOs are a great paliative to boredom. I can park my fleet at a red or grey POCO while waiting for my scouts to report. The twitchy kids in my fleet have something to shoot while the dozy ones get to go afk or alt tab. They will make a very useful stopping place while we're looking for a proper fight.
There's really no reason to park everyone up at a safe spot rather than parking people at a poco. Who knows maybe the locals will come to contest our casual vandalism which grants us the fight my scouts aren't managing to find. And if we reinforce it we've got a very likely fight in 24 hours time.
The only reason a FC would not be blowing up a POCO is when he wants to move the fleet to a better location or actually has a target enemy fleet or ship to engage. And this is entirely apart from any strategic or economic reasons - my members are simply happier if they're doing something rather than doing nothing. |
Roime
Blue Republic
RvB - BLUE Republic
36
|
Posted - 2011.11.30 13:31:00 -
[30] - Quote
Cygnet Lythanea wrote:
The net result is that T2 prices rise across the board as players give up due to low perceived returns and T2 becomes a rich man's game again, just like in the bad old days of the BPO lottery. This reduction in T2 production would pretty much be the death blow to the moon goo market
Unless T2 production moves more in to null sec space.
Which might be a major motivator behind this change.
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