0.2%

The result is not dependent on the outcome of the previous roll so chance stays the same.

But if you have a 0.2% chance to be ganked the first 23 hours and 0.2% chance for 2nd 23 hours, it's clearly greater than 0.2% chance to be ganked in the 46 hours

Dunno.... think I'll call troll here. Type in Retriever in zKillboard and you get several pages of highsec miner kills for just one day. Add Covetors, Hulks, Mackinaws, the odd yield Skiff or Procurer... I'd say miner ganking is alive and well. Though of course your mileage may vary, if you're lucky.

edit: to clarify on amnesia : If the Poisson distribution of chance says for example, that you have a 5% chance to be ganked each hour, its just that. Spending additional hours does not add to the chance. Another example is human lifespan, if each person has for eg. a 1% chance to die at any given time, someone who is already 110 years old still has the same chance (1%) to die at any given time.
It might seem logical for an old person to have increased chance, but its incorrect. Math is fun, eh?

Welcome to GD you'll see Nevil posting these crack filled mania inspired threads from time to time.

Welcome to GD you'll see Nevil posting these crack filled mania inspired threads from time to time.

I'm thinking there's more than one troll in this thread though. There's also the ones going 'sob sob highsec ganking is dead sob sob'...

Miners, listen to OP. Don't tank your ships, buy the best yield modules available. And put your favorite mining systems into your Bio, just in case.

The maths is fine so long as you don't ignore relevant factors such as the chances of someone dying does change with age.

just because you say so?
because chance distribution theory says different. Are you ready to disprove it with solid mathematical proof??

If not, please refrain from saying things just because "they make sense to you" when someone has already pointed out that its wrong, it promotes mathematical illiteracy.

thanks.

first of all, the chance was never 0.2, this is out of total people online. We would need the average of people mining in highsec.

If we assume this to be.. 1/10th? of all people online, chances climb to 2%. Even thats not correct, since its vague, (2% per what?)
Mining is an ongoing process in time, and therefore a Poisson distribution needs to be used to determine proper chance of being ganked (per day/hour/minute) while mining in highsec.

And yes, the Poisson dist. does have the "amnesia" property, meaning that, for example, not being ganked for the past year, or just having been ganked does not alter the chance to be ganked again in any way.

edit: to clarify on amnesia : If the Poisson distribution of chance says for example, that you have a 5% chance to be ganked each hour, its just that. Spending additional hours does not add to the chance. Another example is human lifespan, if each person has for eg. a 1% chance to die at any given time, someone who is already 110 years old still has the same chance (1%) to die at any given time.
It might seem logical for an old person to have increased chance, but its incorrect. Math is fun, eh?

just because you say so?
because chance distribution theory says different. Are you ready to disprove it with solid mathematical proof??

If not, please refrain from saying things just because "they make sense to you" when someone has already pointed out that its wrong, it promotes mathematical illiteracy.

thanks.

The frailness of the elderly is not my say so

The frailess of the elderly is not a mathematic variable. If you make it one, how is it compared to the frailness of infants or middle aged people?

the sentence "Old people have more chances to die" only seems logical to you because you havent thought it through.

If you try your best and see cannot see how wrong it is, perhaps logic is not your strong point, you are an intuitive type who is better suited for literature or poetry. i dunno.

The threat of gankers possibly coming for me was the only thing that kept mining somewhat interesting.


Miiners should really be thanking gankers.

you get points for moving out ofbeing removed from the new bro section.

FTFY. One can dream.

5. Trolling is prohibited.

Trolling is a defined as a post that is deliberately designed for the purpose of angering and insulting other players in an attempt to incite retaliation or an emotional response. Posts of this nature are disruptive, often abusive, and do not contribute to the sense of community that CCP promote.