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Shock
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Posted - 2003.12.08 01:09:00 -
[1]
Edited by: Shock on 08/12/2003 01:14:37 I don't know much about economy, but I foresee another big crash in the economy.
It has all to do with the enormous rise in prices of megacyte and zydrine.
It has been rising steadily for a long time now already, because its seems to become more and more rare and has finally reaching a point where manufacturers in the Empires are getting real troubles to acquiring enough units to keep production up.
Even if you are willing to pay outrageous amounts of money like 20k for megacyte, there is still only like 13.000 Megacyte in whole Essence on the market. Also what's offered on the tradechannel and on forums are all peanuts.
This is resulting in a rise in prices where the border of 100M for a battleship will soon be broken again, only on the other side this time.
As a result both manufacturers and customers are freezing up.
Manufacturer's production lines are halted and the ships that are already built are being stocked. Because the prices that should be asked are practically rising with 0.5 - 5 million ISK a day.
Customers see the very few ships that are placed on the market and refuse to pay the high prices. Partially because everybody is hoping the price for Megacyte is only temporary. And will wait with buying battleship once the price has dropped again.
But the price is temporary indeed, it will only rise, a lot more, just as we though it was 'temporary' a month ago.
An economy where nobody is spending money because they are either unwilling to pay the extremely high prices, or there are no battleships to buy anyway, will come to a grinding halt.
When the big manufacturers are no longer selling ships, they won't buy minerals either.
And that will hit the miners as well, who as a result don't have money to spend either.
As a result the farmers can't sell their stuff either. Only the very few units of Mega and Zyd they get from recycling are quickly sold, but they are really nothing compared to what's the demand.
It's like a house of cards: when one card can no longer hold, it will fall and pull the entire structure down with it.
So why is the Megacyte and Zydrine getting so rare? I don't know...
Perhaps the Alliances are all hoarding it to keep the prices high and only selling small amounts.
Perhaps they are hoarding it because they are fighting wars or are expecting it to do so soon.
Ofcourse we can always blame the baby-roids, but the roids have been doing this for months now, only this time there is a real shortage at going on since it has never been as scarce as now, even though it had seemed to have found some kind of balance a while back at 12-14k a unit.
Perhaps the pirates have scared too many people of with their permacamps in FD, PF 4C etc. But then again, the Alliances are a lot quicker in breaking blockades and a lot of them are strong enough to travel through them anyway. But perhaps the mining majority of the game just no longer has the guts to travel to 0.0 space.
Perhaps one of the people at CCP is doing some research thingy for his study economics, is draining the mega out of the system and we're his labrats.
I don't see why, only where it's going to.
Now I'll let other people who know undoubtly know more about economics then me, fetch their torches and take over... --- soonÖ |
The Enslaver
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Posted - 2003.12.08 01:16:00 -
[2]
I don't view it as a bad thing.
It shows the EVE Economy works. Low Supply pushing up the cost of the item in low supply and all the items that require it for manufacture.
Besides, battleships should never have got so cheap anyway. --------
FireFoxx80: If you think you can do a better job, go find yourself a datacentre to host a box, get a copy of Visual Studio, and STFU. |
Shock
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Posted - 2003.12.08 01:27:00 -
[3]
Edited by: Shock on 08/12/2003 01:34:59
Quote: I don't view it as a bad thing.
It shows the EVE Economy works. Low Supply pushing up the cost of the item in low supply and all the items that require it for manufacture.
Besides, battleships should never have got so cheap anyway.
Though I totally agree that a rise in profits would be a good thing and it's all very cool to see it happening. The way it's it's happening now, is very bad.
This way the margins for everybody aren't rising, only for the people who control the Megacyte and Zydrine. They are already extremely rich and like all rich people they only spent a very small portion of their money on actual items. Only a small portion goes back into the economy.
Also event though rich people start investing by buying blueprints for example, this money is not flowing back into the playereconomy at all.
Everybody always screamed their head off, how Techell was misusing their monopoly on Miner IIs, but that wasn't a real monopoly, you could just use loot lasers just as well.
The problem is with Zydrine and Megacyte, that in this case it IS a monopoly, or at least an oligopoly. In this case people can't say "I'm not going to pay that ungodly amount of ISK for one single unit of Megacyte, I'll wait a bit longer or use some more Noxcium instead" .
No in this case, you just can't get enough minerals, or ewhen you are lucky and you can, nobody will buy your stuff anyway.
The market isn't getting healthier, it's getting to a complete stop. --- soonÖ |
Winterblink
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Posted - 2003.12.08 02:12:00 -
[4]
The law of supply and demand at work. I don't see the problem with it. What's the matter, not enough minerals to crank out a fully armed battleship for every citizen of EVE? ___winterblink/warp_drive_active/eve_nature_vraie// |
Fetty Chico
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Posted - 2003.12.08 02:15:00 -
[5]
Battleship possed to be like a Jaguar sure you want it, but most cases you wont waste ya money cruisers is a Navagator and the frig(me choice) is the honda civic
------------------------------------------------ Tell my tale to those who ask. Tell it truly - the ill deeds, along with the good - and let me be judged accordingly.
If this world was supposed to be friendly CCP wouldnt have wasted time paying the devs to code so many weapons |
Kalar Vrask
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Posted - 2003.12.08 02:54:00 -
[6]
Well, Techell, you shouldn't have spunked the entire Universe's supply of Megacyte making cheap ships for months on end, should you?
And you have the nerve to come on here and whine about it?
Didn't you guys have one of the biggest ingame stockpiles at one point?
What's the matter, got no foresight?
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wamingo
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Posted - 2003.12.08 03:01:00 -
[7]
The problem still isn't mineral prices. The problem is demand for produced items. There is none of it. The mineral prices has to ten fold or more to make a difference Reasons: Too much loot makes probably more than 50% of the item prints obsolete. The higher level ships completely out-performs the lower level ships and classes rendering the lower level ships obsolete. People much too rarely lose their stuff, especially not when it's higher level. The higher the level the more careful people are. People use their higher level stuff to make more money and at best risk lower level stuff in pvp or whatever thus making way too much money with very little or no risk at all. There are too many prints on the market. Too many prints plus too little demand equals people will undercut eachothers prices and end up with prices no one can afford to sell at... Only (med-large)corporations spend lots of items/ships but they're all completely self sufficient!! They have all the prints they'll ever need. All the mineral stashes they'll ever want... They never buy anything from other corps and in fact they only grab money from the rest of the galaxy with minerals such as zyd and mega, from newbee's and smaller corps, and never give back... Imagine microsoft some day in the future owned enough of everything to supply itself and its employees with EVERYTHING: food, oil, homes without a dime ever going out, not to anyone, not the population and not the government... Obviously such a world would never work... And it won't either in EVE. The little office space and factory costs don't really do much to dent the wallets of the corps in eve, agreed?
lemme sum up the problems in few words...
Too many prints... Too many bpc's... Too much loot... Too much advantage in higher class and level ships. yet... Too much to risk... thus... Too little pvp... Too borked insurance... Too salty...
BUT... much of this is about to be alleviated in tech 2... Mainly: Mobile Refineries = megacyte and zyd enmass. Frigs and cruisers will get more meaning vs larger ships. Especially in regard to speed. tech 2 bp's will be limited, unlike tech 1, and the loot drops will be much fewer, if any at all (?). So, is the economy failing, yes but it's not dead, and it can yet be saved.
-- I won't not promise to avoid refraining from harming you! .... What? |
Laughingfish
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Posted - 2003.12.08 03:05:00 -
[8]
LOL, so there are two opposing camps on this issue. Group one thinks everything is fine the way it is. I would guess a very large percentage of these people already have battleships.
Group two thinks the problem with the economy is that there's not enough megacyte.
I'm group three...the problem with the economy is the problem with the game, while it's large in scope and aspirations it's quite short on well thought out mechanics and imagination. The scarcity of megacyte is only the latest instance of "let's shut the barn door after the cow has gotten out" thinking. Don't know if CCP is understaffed or undertalented but the gap between potential and reality for this game is alarming and sad.
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Dagny
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Posted - 2003.12.08 03:07:00 -
[9]
increased cost to produce = increased cost to buy.. if you cant accept a higher price because yesterdays price was 1mill lower, but i'm sure you wont say no to getting 1k extra per zyd/mega, but never ever would you agree to get 1k less...
Basically, it ends up in greedy players increasing raw material cost and decreasing sale price until its almost not worth to produce, and when supplies are harder to come by, nobody wants the increased sale cost.
Solution: dont buy, and let those that accept the changing price to do business.
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Kalar Vrask
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Posted - 2003.12.08 03:14:00 -
[10]
Quote: The problem still isn't mineral prices. The problem is demand for produced items. There is none of it.
PLENTY of demand for BS's, look at trade channel or Techell's channel.
Quote: The higher level ships completely out-performs the lower level ships and classes rendering the lower level ships obsolete.
Changing next patch, play on Chaos.
Quote: People much too rarely lose their stuff, especially not when it's higher level. The higher the level the more careful people are.
Come and live in 0.0 and say that
Quote: People use their higher level stuff to make more money and at best risk lower level stuff in pvp or whatever thus making way too much money with very little or no risk at all.
Has already been pointed out by the dev's and they've stated they're going to nerf it.
Quote: There are too many prints on the market. Too many prints plus too little demand equals people will undercut eachothers prices and end up with prices no one can afford to sell at... Only (med-large)corporations spend lots of items/ships but they're all completely self sufficient!! They have all the prints they'll ever need.
Tech I is supposed to be the baseline, available to everyone who wants it.
Quote: All the mineral stashes they'll ever want... They never buy anything from other corps and in fact they only grab money from the rest of the galaxy with minerals such as zyd and mega, from newbee's and smaller corps, and never give back...
So why are Techell, Eve's defunct 'uber production' powerhouse posting about mineral shortages then?
Quote: Too many prints... Too many bpc's... Too much loot... Too much advantage in higher class and level ships. yet... Too much to risk... thus... Too little pvp... Too borked insurance... Too salty...
contradictions....
Quote: Mainly: Mobile Refineries = megacyte and zyd enmass.
I don't think so - mobile refineries are hugely penalised in their refining quantites.
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Johnathan Roark
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Posted - 2003.12.08 03:29:00 -
[11]
the problem is there is no profit margin on ships too low. Right now, if you buy an origanal blueprint, there is no way you will make a profit in a resunable amount of time. A level 2 Battleship cost about 60mil(estimate) using 12k isk per unit of mega, but its hard to sell unless its priced drastically low. How are corps to earn a profit on making items? There are too many unlimited copies arround, so corperations wont build ships. Mega prices only complicate this farther. So corperations try to sale copies to pay there originals off, but now there are too many blueprint copies. It is over supply that is killing eve's market ------------------------------------- Quantum Industries
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Capn Blood
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Posted - 2003.12.08 04:11:00 -
[12]
Another knock-on effect of high Meg and Zyd is ship prices go up drastically....
...therefore less PvP as insurance isn't covering as much as it used to.
Anybody think less PvP is good for this game?
I for one don't.....EVE is basically just a glorified space shoot em up, despite the promises on the box.....so no PvP makes EVE pointless. ============================================== "Trust no man who says to you that 'The ends justify the means' or who says that 'We will do whatever it takes...'. These men have no honour, and are fit only to be politicians."
The book of Rab Chapter 1, Verse 3. ============================================== |
Ly'sol
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Posted - 2003.12.08 04:26:00 -
[13]
Time to pack up the osses get granny and the kids and head west!!!
*starts singing songs from Oklahoma! -------------------------- Vist the Jericho Fraction Forums
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Randolph Scott
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Posted - 2003.12.08 05:09:00 -
[14]
No demond for Battleships? Huh?
You can see a direct relationship between rising mega/zyd prices and the lower numbers of peeps playing
less peeps playing = less peeps mining mega/zyd = less than normal supply of mega/zyd
Mix into the above the problems many have been going on about the lengths to aquire mega/zyd bearing ores.
I've been told by our sales staff that BS prices are starting to skyrocket. Good for folks who sell battleships, bad for folks who are looking to buy one. Top level Battleship prices are close to/exceed full retail prices.
Once again I see a great opportunity for folks to talk about some of the balancing changes in another aspect of the game that are going to be necessary missed by a the usual *****ing and moaning
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The Reclaimer
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Posted - 2003.12.08 05:13:00 -
[15]
You dont need a battleship for PvP ffs. In fact, I think Eve is better off if noobs dont use bs after playing the game for a month. Rediclius...
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Herophant
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Posted - 2003.12.08 07:31:00 -
[16]
Edited by: Herophant on 08/12/2003 07:32:17
Quote: No demond for Battleships? Huh?
You can see a direct relationship between rising mega/zyd prices and the lower numbers of peeps playing
less peeps playing = less peeps mining mega/zyd = less than normal supply of mega/zyd
Mix into the above the problems many have been going on about the lengths to aquire mega/zyd bearing ores.
I've been told by our sales staff that BS prices are starting to skyrocket. Good for folks who sell battleships, bad for folks who are looking to buy one. Top level Battleship prices are close to/exceed full retail prices.
Once again I see a great opportunity for folks to talk about some of the balancing changes in another aspect of the game that are going to be necessary missed by a the usual *****ing and moaning
Less people--> less need. Stupid.....
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Archemedes
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Posted - 2003.12.08 07:35:00 -
[17]
Edited by: Archemedes on 08/12/2003 07:36:36 Reclaimer, only an idiot would use a battleship in PVP combat after playing one month. It takes two months just to get the combat skills to USE a battleship effectively (three if you train anything else). A 1-month player in a battleship would be less dangerous than a 6-month veteran in a good cruiser...
As for megacyte prices, they WON'T go up much higher. There is a HUGE supply of zero-risk Megacyte sitting in Empire space: NPC-produced modules. If the Megacyte price ever goes above what it costs to buy armor repairers, giant cans, or whatever and recycle them people will just quit buying from miners and recycle.
Of course the fact that Megacyte costs over three times NPC price is silly in the first place. There's near-limitless supplies of it out there in deep space, but nobody wants to fly 40-50 jumps (one way) to get it. Stain alone could probably supply every manufacturer in EVE with Megacyte forever, but they DON'T because they got used to mining it 2 jumps out from a station and now that they'd have to go 20 jumps they don't want to... Add in all the wars the alliances are getting in to and it's easy to see how most of 0.0 space is either too dangerous to mine in, picked clean, or too far from a station. After all, many players aren't on for 4-5 hours at a time to MAKE all those 50-hop trips....
Maybe Stain or Curse should open up their "protectorates" to limited mining by outsiders? After all, THEY aren't mining those 50-hop systems, so let other people do it in a relatively safe area (since alliances tend to keep pirates out where possible) in exchange for a cut of the ore. But the important thing is for people to realize that if you have a good sized mining group, once the ore starts flowing mining 50 jumps out is just as profitable as 20. You need more haulers and it takes longer to set up the op, but once you start mining it WILL work.
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Kalar Vrask
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Posted - 2003.12.08 07:58:00 -
[18]
Quote: As for megacyte prices, they WON'T go up much higher. There is a HUGE supply of zero-risk Megacyte sitting in Empire space: NPC-produced modules. If the Megacyte price ever goes above what it costs to buy armor repairers, giant cans, or whatever and recycle them people will just quit buying from miners and recycle.
Someone told me yesterday that the price of secure cans had been doubled on the NPC market to avoid capping megacyte to 20k per unit, I've yet to verify the cost per unit exactly atm.
Quote: There's near-limitless supplies of it out there in deep space, but nobody wants to fly 40-50 jumps (one way) to get it. Stain alone could probably supply every manufacturer in EVE with Megacyte forever, but they DON'T because they got used to mining it 2 jumps out from a station and now that they'd have to go 20 jumps they don't want to...
Not according to the Stain guy I spoke to...
Let's hope you're right
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Naz Farooq
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Posted - 2003.12.08 08:01:00 -
[19]
Edited by: Naz Farooq on 08/12/2003 08:03:38
Quote:
As for megacyte prices, they WON'T go up much higher. There is a HUGE supply of zero-risk Megacyte sitting in Empire space: NPC-produced modules. If the Megacyte price ever goes above what it costs to buy armor repairers, giant cans, or whatever and recycle them people will just quit buying from miners and recycle.
Exactly. The current price rises are due to the doubling in cost of certain megacyte-bearing NPC items, which in effect are a CCP-instituted cap on the price of megacyte and zydrine. Expect prices to either rise to the new cap level or have PC-driven supply meet the demand at a price below the new cap.
Edit: hehe, I guess I'm not alone...
Sure, everyone supports saving Einstein's brain, but when you put it in the body of a Great White Shark, suddenly you've "gone too far". |
j0sephine
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Posted - 2003.12.08 09:09:00 -
[20]
"There's near-limitless supplies of it out there in deep space, but nobody wants to fly 40-50 jumps (one way) to get it. Stain alone could probably supply every manufacturer in EVE with Megacyte forever, but they DON'T because they got used to mining it 2 jumps out from a station and now that they'd have to go 20 jumps they don't want to... "
... Actually, 'tis seems Stain is at the moment having kind of a local war over whatever lil' of bistot they have left. :s
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Thanatar Thed
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Posted - 2003.12.08 09:20:00 -
[21]
Another big crash on the way.
*YAWN*
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Miso
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Posted - 2003.12.08 09:43:00 -
[22]
Regarding megacyte shortage, high prices of BS etc...how about PvPing in something else other than a Battleship, for starters?
The rumour is there are other types of ship out there -------------------------------------------- Dead
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Drethen Nerevitas
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Posted - 2003.12.08 09:47:00 -
[23]
Quote:
The rumour is there are other types of ship out there
_______________________________________________________________________
IMPORTANT: Devs (and players) please take notice. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. |
Nicholas Marshal
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Posted - 2003.12.08 09:48:00 -
[24]
Yes, I'm not sure why everyone seems to be under the delusion that you NEED a BS for pvp.
Just go to war in cruisers. Get a few Blackbirds, a Moa (or Maller), a Caracal and a couple of Kestrels and you have a great force.
People need to get this ship levelling idea out of their heads. The point of eve is NOT, I repeat NOT, to get into a BS as soon as possible.
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j0sephine
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Posted - 2003.12.08 09:51:00 -
[25]
Edited by: j0sephine on 08/12/2003 09:55:32
"The rumour is there are other types of ship out there"
o.o; Lies! *hugs her Raven Lite*
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Ariell Lucinwind
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Posted - 2003.12.08 09:52:00 -
[26]
Quote: The rumour is there are other types of ship out there
WHAT
My Thorax and Incursus are not Battleships ?
How dare I be lied to like that after all this time.
<<Wanders off to abuse her Battleship sales rep>> -=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-
Came back cause I love you guys :P |
Miso
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Posted - 2003.12.08 10:02:00 -
[27]
Edited by: Miso on 08/12/2003 10:02:43
Quote: Edited by: j0sephine on 08/12/2003 09:55:32
"The rumour is there are other types of ship out there"
o.o; Lies! *hugs her Raven Lite*
josephine dear, you'll never get in BS. Its simply not you, besides, your bum would look to big in it.
Frigates are better, everyone knows that..and they're more complimentary on the figure... -------------------------------------------- Dead
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Lord Guerdo
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Posted - 2003.12.08 10:20:00 -
[28]
Edited by: Lord Guerdo on 08/12/2003 10:22:00 I think i read somewhere in a review... i forget which mag it was in. But in it CCP stated that they were trying to break up the alliances because they are too powerful.
Now alliances are formed over mutual resource harvesting and working together to protect each others a$$.
Now throw into the equation "baby roid" factor.
Can you see where this is going?
If theres no resources left there is no need for these huge alliances to continue. The alliances then turn in on eachother to claim territory for when the Baby roid fixes itself so they can claim as much of it as poss. Which then leads to break down of alliances and internal wars. Ergo CCP accomplished what it setout to do. Distribute power among the up and coming corps and take some away from the already established alliances.
This is my take on it
*edit* typos I mean c'mon, just think about it. What would make more sense then the 3 most hated alliances teaming up to lay waste to the people they all hate anyways? CA is already allied with PA, and TPS lies between the two alliances. Natural allies to be sure. But it's not just that, all but PA (and even some of them) have adopted a "stfu and die, or come and fight us, we don't give a **** what you think or do" philosophy, as well as a PvP Kill everyone not friend kind of mentality. These are the people in eve that kill or convert, the ones dedicated to the death of others, because history, circumstance, and the rest of eve have driven then to do so (except TPS, who are just cool ass pirates ). |
Miso
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Posted - 2003.12.08 10:24:00 -
[29]
Well, I definitely think that CCP has done this on purpose, and it makes sense that it was in the hope of breaking up alliances.
All in all, a good thing. Conflict is good.
"May you live in interesting times." -------------------------------------------- Dead
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Violane
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Posted - 2003.12.08 10:25:00 -
[30]
Well what happens to the people who actually DO have large amounts of megacyte that they purchased at 20k a peice,when ccp finaly fixes the spawn rate and megacyte crashes back to 8k a peice? hehehhehehhehee i gonna laugh my ass to the floor at all the new poor people
I AM YOUR MASTER MUPPET NOW BOW! |
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