Khyle
Gallente
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Posted - 2007.02.23 11:44:00 -
[1]
Edited by: Khyle on 23/02/2007 12:01:11
 Originally by: Effei Gloom
updated with job 9 - failure -
score: 1 win / 4 loss = 20% (1 of 5 total) - 30% (best descryptor) = -10% base chance
"Sadly you were unable to produce anything of value in this job.
This is far from an impossible job, but one that might require a few tries before succeeding."
loss: 281 mil isk
total loss: 1285.2 mill isk
The best decryptor has 30% bonus on the invention chance to my knowledge. BUT that means it has a multiplier of 1.3
Ergo:
20% / 1.3 = 15%
With your skills the base chance seems to be at 15%, but this "measurement" has a huge error.
Strictly speaking you have 1 win out of 5, a very simple estimate would be that the error is about 1, meaning the real chance could be close to 0 and you were just lucky, or the real chance could be 2 out of 5 and you were unlucky.
Id say base chance is somewhere between 10% and 30% to be more precise one would need a lot more data.
Moreover concerning the 620M income from the successful run, a -7 ME BPC should have around 60% waste. If im not mistaken build cost for a vaga should be ~30M(correct me if im wrong), giving you a profit of around ~165M per unit built if you sell for 210M and built with 60% waste. Thus the worth of the BPC should have been around 825M and not 620M.
People were admittedly quite reluctant to buy it(probably scared off by the -7 ME), but if you produce the ship yourself its indiscernable from one built with ME 15 :) .
Wouldnt have made it profitable so far, but it is still a difference.
If you were not unusually unlucky, ship invention is still extremely broken. Even with 30% base chance one could maybe make a small profit, but the price wont really drop.
The problem is, though, if it would be hugely profitable to invent Vagas, everybody would be doing it(as everybody can, just as the t1 market) and then the question would be if the price really drops that much or if datacore and encryptor prices just skyrocket ;)
Anyway, something everybody with a bit of loose cash can do without further restrictions will never be hugely profitable(at least if the chance for profit is obvious).
Edit: As i may sound a bit cynical above:
Mad props for trying it out and making the results available! \o/
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