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How long is EvE expected to live for ?

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Tek'a Rain Gallente Isis Technologies	Posted - 2007.06.01 19:47:00 - [61] no matter what, if things go pearshaped I hope loving devs will sneak us out the server-side code that will allow clever folks to make their own eve servers.
General Apocalypse Amarr Dark-Rising Fallen Souls	Posted - 2007.06.01 20:00:00 - [62] WEll if we don't do something radical in 15 years global warming and the economic crisis caused by lack of oil will be the end of EVE , even thou we can now make oil out of junk global warming will still kill EVE. On shirt term ppl that are worried about 0.0 being taken over by some alliance can relax , remember what happend to m0o ? In this case proly the Jove will invade and/or outposts will become easy to destroy (1M plutonium anyone ) EVE will never fade , i for one hope that but the recent nerf bat makes me feel quite stupid tbh , TomB does sometimes stupid nerfs and Nathaniel has to fix them . Dear TomB we're just gonna get cpu implants and keep our EANM , besides more ppl use active over pasive Thank You SkyFlyer
Iyanah Minmatar Mining Munitions and Mayhem R i s e	Posted - 2007.06.01 20:04:00 - [63] Originally by: Archeausz the question is in the title... A few more years ? 5 years... What really ? Depends on the revealations 2 Id expect, but anyone have a estimate for how long you think it will live on to ? the same length of time that any MMO is expected to run for: as long as it still makes money. apparently there are like another 10 years worth of content ideas already in development (or at least on the drawing board) right down to full planetary interaction and all that jazz. but one of two things will determine the end of eve: -not enough people are paying for the game to make the running of the servers viable. -the world explodes. ========================================== Iy please remember: I AM a sarcastic ******* and nothing i say has ever represented the thoughts or feelings of my corp, alliance, or anyone really. read
Berand Shadow Of The Light R i s e	Posted - 2007.06.01 20:12:00 - [64] I don't think Eve will succumb to competing MMOs, as others have suggested. Eve is virtually unique in the MMO world, as far as I've seen, in that there is actual risk involved in playing. Sure, it has its share of grinds, but the underlying philosophy to everything in the game, from ships to modules to outposts, is that you can loose it to other players. MMOs from the huge game companies will virtually guaranteed, never have a system that involves significant loss. Because a huge portion of the roving masses of gamers (especially the younger crowed) don't LIKE to loose things. These masses of players will inevitably be appalled at the idea of spending millions and billions of isk on ships and modules, then loosing them in the blink of one mistake to another player, who then takes all the spoils. I imagine your average WoW die-hard would cry at the idea of spending 30 billion isk and months of hard work building a permanent outpost... then loosing it in combat to rivals who kick you out and move in to your former home. Now, I'm not saying I like loosing. Who does? What I like, however, is the fact that everything you gain actually has value to it simply because of the fact that another player can come take it away from you. I don't think this will ever appeal to the mass gaming market (I'm talking WoW-level masses). But it damn well appeals to me, and I'm obviously not the only one. In my opinion, the only way Eve will kill itself is if they start going away from this system of loss and gain in order to appeal to the masses of players who never want significant setbacks. As long as CCP doesn't steer it in that direction, I highly doubt you'll see another MMO come up that can offer an alternative that surpasses what Eve has. New ones, especially from the big companies like Blizzard, are going to appeal to the huge masses, because that's where the massive money is. Sure, other MMOs like WoW may cause the player base to wane at times, as gamers with broader tastes then I go to play them, but what Eve offers will always appeal to some. Berand
Opium Minmatar Shiva Morsus Mihi	Posted - 2007.06.01 20:31:00 - [65] 1500 ppl at peak time if that int he beggining,, a couple hundred on beta.. it was alive then i wouldnt care if it went back to that, and itd still be a great game. itll end when u stop playing and stop thinking about it.
Veest FinFleet	Posted - 2007.06.01 20:43:00 - [66] Funnily enough, I asked Oveur at the Copenhagen Gankaton how much longevity he thought that Eve had the potential for. His reply... '25 Years' Just think of how many of us will be close to pension age if we are still playing!!!! And for all those of you out there already claiming your pension, make sure that i'm in your will to get your stuff :)
SiJira	Posted - 2007.06.02 01:48:00 - [67] Originally by: Patch86 Originally by: DarkMatter Originally by: Tecam Hund If I am not mistaken the code was already partially changed some time ago. Yes partially. But I'd imagine at some point in time, the EVE code will be such a monster, it would be more costly to modify it than to start fresh, and migrate everyone's characters & assets to a new "game" That's what I would consider EVE 2... Eventually the game would need to move to totally new software & hardware infrastucture... I'd imagine this process would take more than a 24 hour downtime, etc... I suppose its a matter of semantics as to whether that could be considered EVE 2 or not. It could simply be presented as the next "expansion pack", in which case in what way can it be said that EVE has died? Its a bit like Trigger's Broom- he's used the same broom for 25 years, and never needed a new one once. Of course it's had 6 new handles and 12 new brush heads......... The real test will be if CCP were to charge for it, in my mind. If its free software, with the same price subscription, has migrated characters, and is the only currently running version of EVE, I think I'd be hard pushed to describe it as a sequel. yea so eve will just keep on evolving and thats the point ____ __ ________ _sig below_ the jet cans are made so that people that dont mine can get free ore miners ritually donate the ore to anyone wishing to take some
Wendat Huron Lupus Industries	Posted - 2007.06.02 02:51:00 - [68] Originally by: General Apocalypse ...On shirt term ppl that are worried about 0.0 being taken over by some alliance can relax , remember what happend to m0o ? Actually no, whatever did happen to M0o?
SiJira	Posted - 2007.06.02 03:08:00 - [69] Originally by: Wendat Huron Originally by: General Apocalypse ...On shirt term ppl that are worried about 0.0 being taken over by some alliance can relax , remember what happend to m0o ? Actually no, whatever did happen to M0o? didnt they become bob? ____ __ ________ _sig below_ the jet cans are made so that people that dont mine can get free ore miners ritually donate the ore to anyone wishing to take some
Wendat Huron Lupus Industries	Posted - 2007.06.02 03:11:00 - [70] Originally by: SiJira Originally by: Wendat Huron Originally by: General Apocalypse ...On shirt term ppl that are worried about 0.0 being taken over by some alliance can relax , remember what happend to m0o ? Actually no, whatever did happen to M0o? didnt they become bob? That was my thinking too so what point is he trying to make?
Tecam Hund The Buggers	Posted - 2007.06.02 03:38:00 - [71] Originally by: Wendat Huron Originally by: SiJira Originally by: Wendat Huron Originally by: General Apocalypse ...On shirt term ppl that are worried about 0.0 being taken over by some alliance can relax , remember what happend to m0o ? Actually no, whatever did happen to M0o? didnt they become bob? That was my thinking too so what point is he trying to make? BoB will become mOo once more and the cycle will be complete.
Amarria Black Clan Anthraxx	Posted - 2007.06.02 04:10:00 - [72] Originally by: Tecam Hund Originally by: Wendat Huron Originally by: SiJira Originally by: Wendat Huron Originally by: General Apocalypse ...On shirt term ppl that are worried about 0.0 being taken over by some alliance can relax , remember what happend to m0o ? Actually no, whatever did happen to M0o? didnt they become bob? That was my thinking too so what point is he trying to make? BoB will become mOo once more and the cycle will be complete. Actually, they'll evolve into BoOm.
rackhard	Posted - 2007.06.02 04:12:00 - [73] EvE's end will be determined on REV 2. With other space games coming out with better graphics and new code REV 2 needs to be awesome. To keep players playing. or they will simply go somewhere else. They deff need to fix the lagg that their logs never seem to show. I say another year at best.
Gee Lok	Posted - 2007.06.02 04:13:00 - [74] CCP have done some really smart things when it comes to eve. ● They have had the courage to give players almost total control over how they play the game. Unlike other games where people are restricted to a few training paths. ● They have made the game so that new players are competitive. ● They have made the game in a way that pvp doesn't just involve the fight itself, but it also involves logistics, preperation and positioning. ● They allow players to take on unprecidented levels of risk, when you die, or are scammed you really loose a lot. ● They give the players the ability to make the content instead of scripting everything. ● They allow the players to control the market. ● They provide diverse options for playstyle, from pirating, 0.0 pvp, mining, missioning, industry, helping noobs, and trade. Anyhoo, I think there are two threats to the long term stability of eve. Firstly capital ships. In two or three years time there will be a lot of players trained up for capitals, and they may very well dominate the game. God knows how they will be used in future, but everyone flying around in dreads and carriers would be bad for eve in my opinion. Secondly, the bob empire. If bob ends up controlling all of 0.0 then that would also be bad for eve. Not that it is bob's fault. I really believe that diversity in 0.0 is a good thing, and that something should be done to ensure diversity in 0.0. That may involve making it harder to hold lots of systems, or it may involve introducing several hundred or thousand more systems.
Edward Slain Hell's Horsemen Phalanx Alliance	Posted - 2007.06.02 04:39:00 - [75] Dont worry about BoB controlling all of 0.0. Once they start to get close to it, there will be a civil war. Its inevitable, a few corps will build up a power block within the alliance and try to take on the rest. If CCP continues to upgrade the graphics and source code, there is no reason for Eve to end, along with all the diversity available in this game. I for one havent had more fun in another game.
Ares Lightfeather Gallente	Posted - 2007.06.02 05:36:00 - [76] Edited by: Ares Lightfeather on 02/06/2007 05:34:43 Actually, what would be the best for eve is people from bob actually spliting from their own accord, just in order to get more PvP out of eve. That would be fun.
Marcus Starr FATAL Alliance	Posted - 2007.06.02 05:57:00 - [77] all of u mek valid points, but mines still the only one thats write Band of Brothers 2 Stolen Footage
Secy	Posted - 2007.06.02 06:13:00 - [78] I would think this game has another 3-4 years in it. That being said there are MMOs on the horizon that I think could hurt the playerbase. Age of Conan, Darkfall, and Fallen Earth. Infinity might but from what I have read that game is reallllly far off. Star Trek looks like a pile of ass but I am sure it will take a some people away just because its Star Trek.
ThaMa Gebir Gallente Raddick Explorations Executive Outcomes	Posted - 2007.06.02 08:51:00 - [79] Originally by: Patch86 Originally by: DarkMatter Edited by: DarkMatter on 01/06/2007 18:23:48 Originally by: Tecam Hund Originally by: SiJira Originally by: DarkMatter I'm going to say around 2011 EVE will be gone... And replaced by EVE2. The outdated code simply cannot last that long, especially if Infinity takes off and does well... EVE's survival probably depends as much on it's competition as it does on CCP... its code can be completely changed - while still keeping the infrastructure built up from the ground If I am not mistaken the code was already partially changed some time ago. Yes partially. But I'd imagine at some point in time, the EVE code will be such a monster, it would be more costly to modify it than to start fresh, and migrate everyone's characters & assets to a new "game" That's what I would consider EVE 2... Eventually the game would need to move to totally new software & hardware infrastucture... I'd imagine this process would take more than a 24 hour downtime, etc... I suppose its a matter of semantics as to whether that could be considered EVE 2 or not. It could simply be presented as the next "expansion pack", in which case in what way can it be said that EVE has died? Its a bit like Trigger's Broom- he's used the same broom for 25 years, and never needed a new one once. Of course it's had 6 new handles and 12 new brush heads......... The real test will be if CCP were to charge for it, in my mind. If its free software, with the same price subscription, has migrated characters, and is the only currently running version of EVE, I think I'd be hard pushed to describe it as a sequel. Triggers broom is the perfect analogy (sp?) Made me giggle. ---------------------------- Confirmed heaviest member of RDEX........ Hah, no more hijacks here.
Frug Zenithal Harvest	Posted - 2007.06.02 09:01:00 - [80] FOREVER *****ES - - - - - - - - - Do not use dotted lines - - - - - - - If you think I'm awesome, say BOOO BOOO!! - Ductoris Neat look what I found - Kreul Hey, my marbles
Kidd Chaos Gallente The Blackstone Group Brutally Clever Empire	Posted - 2007.06.02 09:58:00 - [81] 2012
SiJira	Posted - 2007.06.02 10:06:00 - [82] Originally by: Amarria Black Actually, they'll evolve into BoOm. you win eve ____ __ ________ _sig below_ the jet cans are made so that people that dont mine can get free ore miners ritually donate the ore to anyone wishing to take some
Darkstar BP Caldari eXceed Inc. INVICTUS.	Posted - 2007.06.03 09:06:00 - [83] Eve has lost its momentum in terms of growth. Despite all the hoopla surrounding Revelations (the trailer, the reviews), there was nil growth since December 2006. Eve peaked in January 2007 at 34,000 on-line players, and has never broken that record since. Compare this to the year before. Between September 2005 and April 2006 Eve grew about 40% (from 15,000 to 25,000 on-line players on peak moments). In June/July 2006 the number of on-line players was still the same as in April 2006 (so the summer softness had a very limited effect). Of course in January CCP came clean on the cheating of T20 and BoB and there were a lot of players who alledged they would quit. Apparently quite a few did, as it stunted Eve's growth. Now with the new CCP problems, and with the same arrogant stance (note Kieron's remarks, inviting people to leave if they don't like the way CCP handles things) and with the threat of lawsuits against ordinary players, something similar may happen: this week's numbers are 10% lower than last week's, maybe people are beginning to tune out in droves as CCP doesn't care and the endgame is known. There is a small seasonality effect in this 10%, but this did not happen last year, when the summer decline was much much smaller. There is beauty in decay, if you are willing to see it.
Amarria Black Clan Anthraxx	Posted - 2007.06.03 09:17:00 - [84] Originally by: Darkstar BP Eve has lost its momentum in terms of growth. Despite all the hoopla surrounding Revelations (the trailer, the reviews), there was nil growth since December 2006. Eve peaked in January 2007 at 34,000 on-line players, and has never broken that record since. Compare this to the year before. Between September 2005 and April 2006 Eve grew about 40% (from 15,000 to 25,000 on-line players on peak moments). In June/July 2006 the number of on-line players was still the same as in April 2006 (so the summer softness had a very limited effect). Of course in January CCP came clean on the cheating of T20 and BoB and there were a lot of players who alledged they would quit. Apparently quite a few did, as it stunted Eve's growth. Now with the new CCP problems, and with the same arrogant stance (note Kieron's remarks, inviting people to leave if they don't like the way CCP handles things) and with the threat of lawsuits against ordinary players, something similar may happen: this week's numbers are 10% lower than last week's, maybe people are beginning to tune out in droves as CCP doesn't care and the endgame is known. There is a small seasonality effect in this 10%, but this did not happen last year, when the summer decline was much much smaller. There is beauty in decay, if you are willing to see it. You're analyzing a long-term trend with short-term numbers. Some of it's the summer slump. Some of it could be due to pure real-world economics. Some of it could be due to measures taken against macro ops and isk-sellers. I'm not saying that no one is quitting in frustration; merely that we don't know if this is a minor period of stagnation and a tiny blip of decline, or the heralding of a great mass exodus.
Xedrik Amarr	Posted - 2007.06.03 09:40:00 - [85] Edited by: Xedrik on 03/06/2007 09:40:11 In my personal opinion about the title and content of EVE-Online; it has a huge potential. Theoretically the customer base could easily grow ten- or even hundred-folded, considering the fact that science fiction and space games are a very popular. However, with EVE-Online being built around one huge server cluster, Tranquility, this growth is severely hampered. Also we're talking about a game that is managed and run by CCP. This is where I fail to see how it could, in reality, reach these numbers. With the seemingly never-ending increase in mistrust for CCP, EVE-Online is already dying. This has nothing to do with the title itself nor the content, because it's brilliant (at least I'll have to give CCP credit for that). I wouldn't be surprised if CCP abandon ship within 1 year from now, that is if they continue to behave and handle issues as badly as they have done in the past. So to sum it up: EVE-Online as a product, is worth alot and have much more to give. But with the current state of the company owning and running it, it will not prevail long enough to prove it.
Liang Nuren The Refugees	Posted - 2007.06.03 10:09:00 - [86] I give Eve 2 years until it stops pulling in any appreciable amount of new blood, and 3 years after that until its no longer profitable to run the servers. 5 years, barring unforeseen circumstances (another t20 scandal, confirmed cheating by the devs, etc). Some things that might also hurry this up is the network problems that they've been having lately. Spend 2-3 months with a horrible network, and you're likely to see your subscriber base dwindle. In fact, I'd lay better than even money that half the people that have left Eve in the last month have been over the network problems. The other half? The Goonies and Dianaboilc's bullcrap. Liang Originally by: Dianabolic, of BOB, referring to MSN the fact that many of us speak to the devs / gm's / employees of CCP on a regular basis as friends is already common knoweldge?
James Duar Merch Industrial We Are Nice Guys	Posted - 2007.06.03 11:22:00 - [87] I'm probably about 1 more scandal away from setting a long skill, canceling my account and then seeing if I care in month's time. Actually I'm almost about there now due to the stupid game mechanics (Titans).
Manny Tanato Caldari Provisions	Posted - 2007.06.03 12:13:00 - [88] Originally by: Darkstar BP ... and with the same arrogant stance (note Kieron's remarks, inviting people to leave if they don't like the way CCP handles things) ... I totally agree. I have no idea what the social mores in Iceland is like, but I was shocked that a representative of any commercial entity was allowed to talk to its customer base in this manner. I can think of 10 seperate occasions where people have lost their jobs over much lesser transgressions. This sort of institutional arrogance absolutely will destroy the company if left to fester. The moment you start thinking that your customers' money is unworthy of your own time and efforts, well, that's the end. No one in their right mind who recieved such a blatant slap on the face would stay and continue putting money into your pocket. I for one have always had the nagging feeling that CCP censors its customers, and that we, the people who pay for this product have too little means of discourse should something go wrong. CCP's recent actions and stance have reinforced my view. CCP really needs some internal policing and some checks and balances. Either they administer their own bitter pill, or the nature of the free global market will punish them severly. -=[ I huff and I puff and nothing falls... ]=-
Sasakisan	Posted - 2007.06.03 13:39:00 - [89] This game is designed to be harsh, played on one shard, and appeal to a niche market. I feel that this game design will always appeal to enough people to keep the game going. Since it is aimed at a niche market, though, I am not sure how much growth is possible. Another question is what can the game company do to grow its space game franchise and maximize its profits. As other MMOs show, games with different types of servers (RP, PVP, PVE, etc.), instanced content, moderate death penalties, and mechanics in place to prevent scamming attract a lot of customers. The game company could develop a second MMO offering, separate from and in addition to their current space game. This second MMO could be designed with mass market appeal in mind to really maximize the return the game company gets on its intellectual property.
Gumpy Nighthawk Amarr Octavian Vanguard RAZOR Alliance	Posted - 2007.06.03 13:58:00 - [90] Well eve better not die in the coming 230 days, because after that i'll finally be able to use my dread.

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