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Sphynx Stormlord
Gallente
Anqara Tech
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Posted - 2007.10.08 20:01:00 -
[1]
Anyone care to estimate how many people will be in a position to fly the new tech 2 battleships within a month or so of rev 3's launch.
I'm somewhat curious as to what the demand will be like, and whether inventors will totally swamp it realy quickly with a large supply, or if it will be very deep.
Now, partially this will depend on how good the new t2 battleships are, but it will also depend on how many people are potential pilots for them, from a skills point of view.
So, whats your best guess?
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Ogdru Jahad
Amarr
Ministry of War
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Posted - 2007.10.08 20:10:00 -
[2]
I am basically 3 skills short of flying a maruader.
AWU V
Amarr BS V
and the actual skill. I wont be able to get into one till late nov.
so maybe a week after rev 3 i can climb into one and use t2 large beams and or pulses. depending on boni's
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At last the Gallente can finally lay claim to saying... "my DICtor" is bigger than yours.
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jokerb
Caldari
THE INQUISITI0N
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Posted - 2007.10.08 20:23:00 -
[3]
Basically every Dread Pilot can step into one immediately. Many Carrier Pilots can as well. Double that number and you will have a good idea of the demand. I.E. supply is going to be constrained.
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Washell Olivaw
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Posted - 2007.10.08 20:35:00 -
[4]
A lot of the guys who are in a position to invent the BPC's needed and have the resources on hand are likely to be in and produce for their alliance first, further limiting initial supply.
As for the skills, come november, tons of people will be ready to fly them. I'm 14 months old and only need BS V and the marauder skill to fly those.
Black-ops might see less demand though, if the current pre-reqs make it live.
 Quote:
Everybody has a photographic memory, some people just don't have film.
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cal stark
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Posted - 2007.10.08 21:14:00 -
[5]
I'm guessing supply will not meet demand from the start, and the number of pilots jumping into Tech-2 battleships will not be determined by skills but by the availability of the ships themselves. However, given time, that'll probably change.
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RaTTuS
BIG
Ka-Tet
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Posted - 2007.10.08 22:51:00 -
[6]
Dread cpablie is T2 BS capable with skill.
ao quite alot.
now....
mission runner are possibly not T2 BS capalble - [as much]
black-ops are probably more so
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BIG Lottery, BIG Deal, InEve & RaTTuS Home
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Feng Schui
Minmatar
The Ninja Coalition
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Posted - 2007.10.09 07:12:00 -
[7]
Due to the projected skills and cost, I am probably going to continue with my current skilling plan. Once that is finished, I'll be able to fly one anyways, but it won't be towards the end.
More important stuff to train for.
other than that, I will add nothing to this thread. |
Carniflex
Caldari
Fallout Research
Fallout Project
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Posted - 2007.10.09 08:51:00 -
[8]
Perhaps somewhere in the ballpark of 5000 pilots or so. Most pilots with either 40+ mil SP or with ability to fly capital ships are very close. Plus high enough SP pilots who have been training towards one as their goal after initial skill req. were available.
Ability to fly one within a week however does not mean they would be willing to buy one. That depends on ship bonuses (when they are relased at last) and cost of the ship.
At first main bottleneck will be ability to build one however. At first glance it seems that it's going to take 2 level 5 science skills in addition to battleship construction lev 4 to build. So there will be more pilots capable of inventing them than pilots capable of building them (or flying them).
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Contralto
Gallente
Southern Tallen Labs
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Posted - 2007.10.09 08:52:00 -
[9]
Edited by: Contralto on 09/10/2007 08:59:49
Mission runner here.
AWU V cooking Atm. have all other pre-req's.
I am a Drone junkie but will buy a Kronus and skill up my gunnery a bit more. Be like my Hype and Navy Thron though, sold within a month or two once I have tried it. I always end up back with my old Domi's.
If the Gallente Marauder had been a T2 drone boat the demand would be way higher, for sure every Domi pilot out there would want that one.
The Golem will be the "hot" number, I bet every CNR and Raven pilot will be queuing for that one.
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Plave Okice
Gallente
5hockWave
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Posted - 2007.10.09 08:59:00 -
[10]
I can train Marauders skill as soon as it's released, won't be buying one straight away though, if it all, I don't NPC and it's not looking like been too PvP worthy given likely cost. I won't mind paying 300 mill but I think they're gonna be alot more than that, anything from 500 mill to a bill, certainly at first.
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2007.10.09 09:07:00 -
[11]
I fully expect even over 1 bil at release, but should quickly go under 400 mil, in a couple of months even under 300 mil.
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Contralto
Gallente
Southern Tallen Labs
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Posted - 2007.10.09 12:28:00 -
[12]
I think supply and demand is going to be critical to pricing in the case of the BS,
8 new ships and only a select few inventors and manufacturers with the skills and capital to produce them, I wonder just how many current T2 inventors/builders will settle for producing the other 12 lesser T2 ships instead of spending months adding skills for the BS.
Up to 1 Bill for each T1 hull Bpo, 64 datacores at ever increasing prices, Mech Eng at 2 mill already in Sinq laison, Starship up from 70k to 400k in the last 3 weeks.
Initially few will be produced but also few will be bought as buyers wait for skills and for prices to drop. as demand ramps up ,will invention be able to keep pace? if not then prices will stay high for a long while. And I imagine a lot of initial production will be in house for corp/alliance use.
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Garalan
Minmatar
FireStar Inc
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Posted - 2007.10.09 13:20:00 -
[13]
Dont forget that the builders also need to skill the "battleship construction skill" before the can start building the ship.
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Malena
Perpetual Dawn
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Posted - 2007.10.09 13:47:00 -
[14]
What section are you guys reading about the skill reqs and stats for the ships?
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RaTTuS
BIG
Ka-Tet
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Posted - 2007.10.09 13:48:00 -
[15]
Edited by: RaTTuS on 09/10/2007 13:50:01
you can invent them on sisi but cannot build or fly them yet because of skills.
umm some pictures where linked in the general forum
...
Here
and
here
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BIG Lottery, BIG Deal, InEve & RaTTuS Home
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pandymen
Caldari
Red Dwarf Mining Corporation
space weaponry and trade
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Posted - 2007.10.09 15:16:00 -
[16]
Not only does building them require battleship construction to 5, it also requires mechanical engineering 5 and racial starship engineering 5 (atm at least). So while some people have those skills already (I almost do), there's alot of people that will need to train for a solid 2-3 months just to be able to build these battleships.
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Contralto
Gallente
Southern Tallen Labs
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Posted - 2007.10.09 15:32:00 -
[17]
Originally by: pandymen
Not only does building them require battleship construction to 5, it also requires mechanical engineering 5 and racial starship engineering 5 (atm at least). So while some people have those skills already (I almost do), there's alot of people that will need to train for a solid 2-3 months just to be able to build these battleships.
I am 95% sure its battleship construction IV not V, I did look when I was on Sisi and thats only 10 to 12 days skilling with a rank 10 skill, less for these uber science alts with 30+ intelligence.
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Mag's
MASS
Ministry Of Amarrian Secret Service
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Posted - 2007.10.09 17:49:00 -
[18]
I can train both Gall ones as soon as they are available.
But not sure I'll be running to do that tbh, having to much fun in other ships atm. 
Mag's
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Jei'son Bladesmith
The Storm Knights
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Posted - 2007.10.09 20:00:00 -
[19]
I know a few people that are hesitating on the skills (myself included) until we have a more solid idea about the ships actual capabilities. Last info I saw gave the Marauders only 4 weapon hardpoints, which unless they have radical weapon bonuses, are not enough to get me to trade in my machariel.
I ♥ Cake...☼☼☼...12 Seconds |
Soren
PAK
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Posted - 2007.10.09 22:19:00 -
[20]
Aside from cloaking 5 (and unreleased skills) I'm ready to fly 6 of the new bs's...
And ofc I will be waiting on prices / bonuses before I decide it's worth it over other ships.
☠-->-->--
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Yokaar
Caldari
the united
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Posted - 2007.10.09 22:23:00 -
[21]
hmmm, cloaking battleships. Can you say Macro-npcer.
http://cristgaming.com/pirate.swf |
dalman
Finite Horizon
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Posted - 2007.10.09 22:47:00 -
[22]
Without knowing skill/role bonuses it's completely impossible to estimate what the demand will be.
Am I forced to have any regret?
I've become the lie, beautiful and free
In my righteous own mind
I adore and preach the insanity you gave to me |
hostile killerz
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Posted - 2007.10.13 07:07:00 -
[23]
where can i find the spec and skills for these ships?????????????
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Malcanis
High4Life
SMASH Alliance
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Posted - 2007.10.13 12:46:00 -
[24]
Originally by: Yokaar
hmmm, cloaking battleships. Can you say Macro-npcer.
Um, with the DPS these things will have, why would you use one over a far cheaper raven + T2 cloak?
CONCORD provide consequences, not safety; only you can do that. |
Atius Tirawa
Minmatar
Wreckless Abandon
Triumvirate.
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Posted - 2007.10.13 15:22:00 -
[25]
Originally by: Malcanis
Originally by: Yokaar
hmmm, cloaking battleships. Can you say Macro-npcer.
Um, with the DPS these things will have, why would you use one over a far cheaper raven + T2 cloak?
Warping while cloaked is. . .nice.
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CFC Fodder
Gallente
R.E.C.O.N.
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Posted - 2007.10.14 05:38:00 -
[26]
Edited by: CFC Fodder on 14/10/2007 05:37:57
I'll wait till the ships are actually released, thanks. I remember the sting still when the tier 3 Battleships came out, as far as the cost goes then versus now. I suspect such shall be the same for the first month, at least, of their release, and then demand and interest will drop off steadily.
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Solant
Minmatar
Ventis Secundis
R0ADKILL
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Posted - 2007.10.14 05:55:00 -
[27]
Let us not forget the massive strain that the entire market was put under when Tier 3 BS first came out.. mineral prices skyrocketed, and many builders straight up could not acquire more for a time.
Consider that, and the fact that this time around we're looking at several times the number of brand new ships... expect _everything_ to be more expensive for a little while..
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Red lensman
Gallente
BlackSky inc.
Edge Of Sanity
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Posted - 2007.10.19 12:18:00 -
[28]
Tect 2 bs's 32 mech eng datacores @ 2.5 million +32 ship cores@500k = +
best decryptor@80 million =44 million per ship per try
no decryptor =96 million per ship per try
and ship + tech 2 comps = a lot more
so i doubt they will drop below 600 million for a long time :(
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Holleeder
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Posted - 2007.10.19 12:55:00 -
[29]
with those jump drive skills as pre-req is suspect those things are gonne be low sec only, and no high sec.
I think I will not bother then
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2007.10.20 00:47:00 -
[30]
Originally by: Red lensman
Edited by: Red lensman on 19/10/2007 12:28:03
Tect 2 bs's 32 mech eng datacores @ 2.5 million +32 ship cores@500k = +
best decryptor@80 million =44 million per ship per try
no decryptor =96 million per ship per try
and ship + tech 2 comps = a lot more
so i doubt they will drop below 600 million for a long time :(
and with a success rate of about 1 in 3 atm on test 3 out of 8 trys atm thats with best decryptors (stolen formulas) on Domi = Sins = 132 million per bs + 62 million for ship thats a base cost with out a load of tech 2 comp's and morphite of 194 million
Well, TBFH, you can be bloody certain that ME datacores won't stay high for too long, and will go right back under 2 mil "soonish". They are getting traded even at 1.8 mil as we speak, in Jita, by the impatient... and there are several "harvesting projects" underway (plus, everybody and their dog is starting to get ME agents).
As for ship cores, I know of many people that are STILL hoping that T2 ship BPOs will be delivered via the lottery (in spite of the fact CCP announced otherwise on several occasions), so once the revelation hits them, there should be a massive flood of ship cores compared to mech cores (so, basically, deadweight cores, at dumping prices, since nobody can use them all, so they are almost completely unneeded, those "extras").
I am not sure what "best decryptors" you speak of, but you can still buy Caldari decryptors at 20-ish mil for the "best chance" and well under 5 mil for "most runs"... and the Golem is sure to be one of the MOST popular T2 BSs after the patch (since, you know, it's basically a HAC-Raven).
I fully expect them to sell well under 500 mil within a month, and at around 350 mil in two months past patchday.
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