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FastLearner Fury Holdings Brutally Clever Empire	Posted - 2007.11.07 22:07:00 - [31] Originally by: Shadarle Originally by: Letias Well it seems like he is having problems that kinda was my point. This is because stating returns of 3-6% is not going to get big investors to buy in. I think this would work much better as a co-operative venture, rather than an IPO. Get a bunch of rich traders together and get them to promise to keep all discussions private. Work as a collective body or a cartel to manipulate prices one at a time. I'd be far more interested in this than in buying into an IPO. I tend to agree that it may well work better as a cartel than as an IPO - as that avoids a whole ton of administrative oversight required to run a trustee-based IPO. I'd also suggest that minerals isn't the cheapest or most profitable market to manipulate. T2 materials, for example, would probably be a lot easier/more productive for a few different reasons.
Outa Rileau Federal Navy Academy	Posted - 2007.11.07 22:22:00 - [32] I myself have played with the idea of mineral market manipulation, in my mind, however the scale of it would have to be huge, depending on where you decide to operate. Once i thought of the effects it would have on the entire economy, it became even more interesting to me. The mineral market in eve seems very flexible when you consider how high and low miners are willing to go, as long as they are forced to. A plan such as yours would no doubt have impact on the movement of the average prices, and when or if the prices reach the currently implemented caps, it would dampen or halt any profit. Also thinking of the impact towards people, and the shareholders themselves is intruiging. You'd effectively be manipulating the foundation for almost the entire eve economy. If you fixed prices high, the price of goods would rise, if you managed to somehow lower them, you'd be reducing the cost of goods, but only to your financial ability. With the latter, you might just run out of isk. In the long run, inflation might strike, and result in miners demanding more. If somehow prices would go low, you'd be effectively extending the amount of time needed by miners to make X worth of ISK at it's current value. If you happened to boost the price, all goods would gradually rise in price, and leave mission running and other forms of income less viable. I don't know how much you'd be able to affect the market, or whether you even have the ability to manage a large enough chunk of it, but depending on how and where you decide to do your business, and how much you're willing the drive up prices, an investor might just reduce the value of their own investment in your endeavor over the long run. It's all tied together, and the mineral market is at the center. If you happen to somehow get this going though, i might consider investing to keep my ISKies at their current value Disclaimer(And yes, it's for exactly this post!): I'm no financial genius nor professional; although i do believe my understanding of the eve market is somewhat good, i will never claim any of my thoughts on this to be the absolute truth or to even have any foundation at all. (this is an alt if you couldnt figure btw)
Nebuchadnezzar I Art of War Cult of War	Posted - 2007.11.07 22:47:00 - [33] It is an interesting concept and one many make a living off smallscale in EvE im sure. In EvE, as opposed to raw product manipulation IRL, i do not believe it can be done so massively - put simple due to one element: supply is essentially unlimited.
Kitex Blacktag Test Labs	Posted - 2007.11.08 04:34:00 - [34] Edited by: Kitex on 08/11/2007 04:35:36 Originally by: Mahavy Seth As I posted in his original thread, I support this, I think it will be very hard yes, but if he cant do it, how will it hurt you? You will get your isk back eventually, and still have made some on top. My point was that mineral manipulation on such a large scale would negatively impact profits in my own ongoing operations. Profits from such manipulation aren't coming from nowhere - they'd be coming from other players, a large concentration of whom are probably reading this post and not even realizing that supporting this is bad for them in the long run. It all depends what sector of trade or industry you deal in. Aside from finding it extremely unlikely to ever amass over 1% of EVE's total currency into a single IPO, those are the reasons I would not support this plan with ISK. I'd actually commit considerable assets, both time and currency, to disrupting said manipulations if any [fissure] in the plan or opportunity presented itself. Mineral manipulation is just bad for bid'ness. From my perspective, of course edit: c.rack is apparently a naughty word. Blacktag - Buy ships / Fittings / Drones / Ammo in BULK with Delivery!
Block Ukx KDM Corp Firmus Ixion	Posted - 2007.11.08 14:27:00 - [35] Originally by: Letias Edited by: Letias on 07/11/2007 21:35:38 I could at the moment put maybe a billion in but who would supply the other 299, would you still start with a small amount or is it pointless in this venture seeing as your aim is market manipulation? No it is not pointless because I donÆt expect to raise 300B in one day. Pang Grohl comment, ôI see it taking far less than the monthly traded isk volume to be able to guide the market where you want it,ö suggests that this idea might work with less ISK than anticipated. In reality, I donÆt need to collect 300 B to get started, and perhaps 90 B would be enough. At the present time I have no information to accurately determine how much isk is needed to manipulate one Region. The raised capital will be put into work immediately.
Block Ukx KDM Corp Firmus Ixion	Posted - 2007.11.08 14:33:00 - [36] Originally by: Hanoi Hana How hard would you have to work to run this manipulation, also? Is it an hour per day, or 0.01 constantly for 40+ hours a week? It is one of many important things to consider when trusting somebody with a large amount of money. I believe in working smarter not harder. No, IÆm not going to sit down and constantly update orders 0.01 isk at a time; it is not necessary. This venture is not about trading or manufacturing, it is about taking advantage of the market inefficiency.
Block Ukx KDM Corp Firmus Ixion	Posted - 2007.11.08 14:39:00 - [37] Originally by: Nebuchadnezzar I It is an interesting concept and one many make a living off smallscale in EvE im sure. In EvE, as opposed to raw product manipulation IRL, i do not believe it can be done so massively - put simple due to one element: supply is essentially unlimited. While resources are in ôunlimited", time is not. It takes time to turn those resources into something useful. Remember, only 3,771 Billion ISK in minerals was traded last year in Heimatar.
tornpain	Posted - 2007.11.08 14:53:00 - [38] funny enough i think minerals do both too much volume to be susceptible to manipulation given the hard caps CCP has put in on prices -- you'll only sell trivial amounts above the hard caps to the ignorant -- and also not enough volume to liquidate your holdings fast enough if/once you do establish a price bubble. your market data doesn't show you which stations those minerals are moving through. you need to capture order activity in quasi-realtime and this is easily manipulated (even unintentionally) by people cancelling orders. if you focused on manipulating supply you could make some money, but you do it easily with very minute fractions of a trillion isk ;)
tornpain	Posted - 2007.11.08 14:55:00 - [39] Originally by: Block Ukx it is about taking advantage of the market inefficiency. to expand on my comment about the market research you've done; i think your data shows a fictional inefficiency. none of your posts make it sound like you've actually watched mineral buy and sell orders for very long.
Block Ukx KDM Corp Firmus Ixion	Posted - 2007.11.08 15:01:00 - [40] Originally by: Kitex My point was that mineral manipulation on such a large scale would negatively impact profits in my own ongoing operations. Profits from such manipulation aren't coming from nowhere - they'd be coming from other players, a large concentration of whom are probably reading this post and not even realizing that supporting this is bad for them in the long run. It all depends what sector of trade or industry you deal in. Aside from finding it extremely unlikely to ever amass over 1% of EVE's total currency into a single IPO, those are the reasons I would not support this plan with ISK. I'd actually commit considerable assets, both time and currency, to disrupting said manipulations if any [fissure] in the plan or opportunity presented itself. Mineral manipulation is just bad for bid'ness. From my perspective, of course I understand your point, and without me telling you the whole plan I wonÆt be able to convince you that this venture will not hurt your business. I strongly believe this plan will improve the eve economy.
Block Ukx KDM Corp Firmus Ixion	Posted - 2007.11.08 15:04:00 - [41] Originally by: tornpain funny enough i think minerals do both too much volume to be susceptible to manipulation given the hard caps CCP has put in on prices -- you'll only sell trivial amounts above the hard caps to the ignorant -- and also not enough volume to liquidate your holdings fast enough if/once you do establish a price bubble. your market data doesn't show you which stations those minerals are moving through. you need to capture order activity in quasi-realtime and this is easily manipulated (even unintentionally) by people cancelling orders. if you focused on manipulating supply you could make some money, but you do it easily with very minute fractions of a trillion isk ;) Your view of mineral market manipulation is totally different to what I have in mind.
tornpain	Posted - 2007.11.08 16:03:00 - [42] Let me back up a bit. Originally by: Block Ukx In order for this to work, I need a large sum of ISK. For instance, in Metropolis alone 300 Billion ISK in minerals was traded last month. The latter doesn't prove the former, and in fact hurts your argument. And from the original thread: Originally by: Block Ukx I think the great appeal of this venture is its nature; to control and manipulate the mineral market. Looking at the size of this market, 100 Billion wonÆt do it. How are you calculating your isk requirements, exactly? Basically any trader in the reprocessing line of work "manipulates" the mineral market, and we all do it very successfully with much, much less isk, with much greater theoretical profit, though potential profit certainly hits an isk ceiling on a per-region basis. You have to also figure that any meddling eventually will put more and more economic incentive on people to compete on the supply side rather than simply satisfying the demand side... I guess the point I'm trying to make is you must be really bad at what you do (or are trying to do) if it takes you a trillion isk to completely dominate a region.
Saint Luka The Illuminati. Triumvirate.	Posted - 2007.11.08 16:14:00 - [43] Potential, buy a seveer amount at a low-med price, making the market dry thus forcing prices up, once you feel prices are at a peak, sell. Once the market has crashed from said influx, buy again, rince and repeat. Smart, with capital it can work well and bring in some awesome profits. We'll just have too see who's up for such a gamble, shame i'm poor. -
Hanoi Hana Mitsubishi Group	Posted - 2007.11.08 16:33:00 - [44] Originally by: Block Ukx Originally by: Hanoi Hana How hard would you have to work to run this manipulation, also? Is it an hour per day, or 0.01 constantly for 40+ hours a week? It is one of many important things to consider when trusting somebody with a large amount of money. I believe in working smarter not harder. No, IÆm not going to sit down and constantly update orders 0.01 isk at a time; it is not necessary. This venture is not about trading or manufacturing, it is about taking advantage of the market inefficiency. Can you please explain how you plan to take advantage of market inefficiency if you are not updating the moment you get bid out? Won't letting orders sit below top spot cause you to lose out on your several percent? This is an interesting idea, but I would like you to be more specific about what inefficiencies exist and a little more about how you plan to take advantage of them, so that we can discuss more the practical implementations rather than a simulation that likely assumes perfect efficiency on your part, which will not be had without you burning your eyeballs by staring at an LCD screen 23/7.
Block Ukx KDM Corp Firmus Ixion	Posted - 2007.11.08 16:58:00 - [45] Originally by: tornpain How are you calculating your isk requirements, exactly? 300 billion is based on Metroplis monthly trades. Some have argued that I would need less. I have no way to know the exact amount needed to observe the changes IÆm looking for, but I would think 300 B should be enough to start with.
Block Ukx KDM Corp Firmus Ixion	Posted - 2007.11.08 17:06:00 - [46] Originally by: Hanoi Hana Can you please explain how you plan to take advantage of market inefficiency... Sorry, but I will not disclosed that information. Originally by: Hanoi Hana Won't letting orders sit below top spot cause you to lose out on your several percent? You are still thinking like a trader. This venture is not your ussual by low sell high tactic. Originally by: Hanoi Hana Will the returns remain at 3% after you begin trading and the market tries to follow you? I expect returns to be better than 3%. Target returns is 5-6% Originally by: Hanoi Hana The 3% is based off of no market response. I am not sure if this is significant or insignificant... Yes, very significant. It is essentially free money sitting on the market.
tornpain	Posted - 2007.11.08 17:59:00 - [47] Originally by: Block Ukx Originally by: tornpain How are you calculating your isk requirements, exactly? 300 billion is based on Metroplis monthly trades. Some have argued that I would need less. I have no way to know the exact amount needed to observe the changes IÆm looking for, but I would think 300 B should be enough to start with. You presented 300 billion as the isk-volume traded in minerals through Metropolis in a month. I am pretty sure you can do whatever you intend to do with as little as 3 billion isk per mineral, based on my personal experience in trading in the mineral markets -- I've personally manipulated the spread on individual minerals with less, though only briefly until someone with more money squeezed me out of my comfort zone. Your proposal for 1-2 trillion sounds less than credible when you point-blank admit you have no idea how much money you need to run the venture you propose.
Shadarle	Posted - 2007.11.08 18:17:00 - [48] Edited by: Shadarle on 08/11/2007 18:19:27 For any sort of price manipulation to work it has to be done in multiple regions and on some (not all) of the minerals. Trit is the easiest to manipulate as it is the hardest to haul around in large quantities. If you buy out a billion trit from the market it will take a long time for that much to get hauled back... and people will pay an inflated price in that period. Unfortunately trit still has a price ceiling, making it not worth doing this to. The reason to have 300 billion or 1 trillion isk is not to cause a bubble but to keep the bubble inflated for a set period of time until you can sell off all your stuff at the inflated price. You do this for half of the minerals and hold it for several days if not a week in multiple regions. This causes the other minerals to start dipping in price to keep the basket price from jumping too far. As those dip low enough to let the bubble burst and you buy up mass quantities of all the other minerals instead and watch the whole situation reverse itself. Rinse and repeat. You just need a massive amount of money to be able to manipulate the market across multiple regions and to be able to hold the manipulation for a long enough time that it effects the other minerals. The only reason I'm giving this much away is because I don't think this will actually occur. Only people with 100+ billion could even attempt it... so I'm not worried about random people trying this. But I see this being worth about 20-30% on each swing, which would take a week or two. So I would imagine if done correctly the returns would be in the 50% range monthly. It's WAYYYY too risky to do it for a meagerly 3-6% return as you could just as easily try this just as 20 freighter loads of high end minerals come in and overwhelm you. Tanking Setups Compared Stacking Penalty / Resists Explained
tornpain	Posted - 2007.11.08 18:27:00 - [49] What Shadarle describes is already being done in game, and already has other people doing their best to disturb the market manipulators. It's a shame it's not the kind of thing that gets more publicity. Maybe if we got prettier charts and graphs...
Block Ukx KDM Corp Firmus Ixion	Posted - 2007.11.08 18:39:00 - [50] Originally by: Shadarle But I see this being worth about 20-30% on each swing, which would take a week or two. So I would imagine if done correctly the returns would be in the 50% range monthly. It's WAYYYY too risky to do it for a meagerly 3-6% return as you could just as easily try this just as 20 freighter loads of high end minerals come in and overwhelm you. You will be buying shares, so if you are correct and earnings are that hi you will receive them. IÆm going to distribute the profits. This is NOT a Bond offer.
Shadarle	Posted - 2007.11.08 19:20:00 - [51] Originally by: Block Ukx Originally by: Shadarle But I see this being worth about 20-30% on each swing, which would take a week or two. So I would imagine if done correctly the returns would be in the 50% range monthly. It's WAYYYY too risky to do it for a meagerly 3-6% return as you could just as easily try this just as 20 freighter loads of high end minerals come in and overwhelm you. You will be buying shares, so if you are correct and earnings are that hi you will receive them. IÆm going to distribute the profits. This is NOT a Bond offer. The question is if you'd be doing the same thing I discussed or if you had other plans. The only reason it would be hard to make 30% profit would be a lack of minerals to buy up, thus unused capital. If you maintained the bubble with 1/2 your money then the returns would only be 15%. I honestly think 300 billion is overkill unless you're trading across every region in safe space and manipulating them all at the same time. In which case you may need that much if you try to hold prices steady for more than a few days. Tanking Setups Compared Stacking Penalty / Resists Explained
Block Ukx KDM Corp Firmus Ixion	Posted - 2007.11.08 20:17:00 - [52] Originally by: Shadarle The question is if you'd be doing the same thing I discussed or if you had other plans. No, my plan is different. There wonÆt be any mass hauling and I wonÆt attempt to create a bubble like the one you described. However it will feed from those mineral swings like the one you explained. Originally by: Shadarle I honestly think 300 billion is overkill unless you're trading across every region in safe space and manipulating them all at the same time. In which case you may need that much if you try to hold prices steady for more than a few days. For starters, IÆm going to focus in two Regions. You might be correct that 300 B is overkill and therefore IÆll attempt to raise money in phases, look at the effects of my plan, collect data, and then decide if more money is needed.
Shadarle	Posted - 2007.11.08 21:16:00 - [53] Originally by: Block Ukx There wonÆt be any mass hauling Not sure if this was meant as a differentiation from my idea. But my strategy involved no hauling either. It seems to me any hauling would just be a LOT of work. Tanking Setups Compared Stacking Penalty / Resists Explained
Nummb	Posted - 2007.11.08 21:38:00 - [54] I have been investing with Block since around February-March of 2007. He has been "in" the mineral market for a long time. I think he is unintentionally leaving out some information because as we like to say "it's a trade secret". His BSAC mineral track record has been impressive, and those investors who have put in hundreds of millions of isk have seen growth. The thing is, he is running his business like a real company instead of a virtual pretend business that only works within the confines of a game. His business model has been to find a niche, study it and then reside in the background always having a hand in everything that goes on. Also, he mentions the 300 million free isk sitting on the markets. That is an interesting and very valid but very misunderstood point. We talk all day long about buying low and selling high. We also talk about supply and demand etc...What we don't talk about is how the interactions all tie together. Everything in the market that can be produced (i.e. all T1 and T2 items) has a life cycle. I am not talking about items that can be looted from NPC's, only those items which need players to create them. There are two ways to buy from the market; through a buy order, which 95% of Eve does not use or uses in very limited capicity due to the initial limit of 5 and through current sell orders which are put up by other players. It is not uncommon to open up the market and find lots of items and minerals up in sell orders that are less than buy orders in the same region. Most of this is due to people selling stuff in low sec for less than it goes for in high sec, but some of it boils down to the basics of all business...location, location, LOCATION. Anyway, now I am rambling. Block already has a hand in the market, he just is asking for more money, hence the IPO to further his business plan. -
Hanoi Hana Mitsubishi Group	Posted - 2007.11.08 21:39:00 - [55] Originally by: Block Ukx For starters, IÆm going to focus in two Regions. You might be correct that 300 B is overkill and therefore IÆll attempt to raise money in phases, look at the effects of my plan, collect data, and then decide if more money is needed. How can you split your plan into parts? I was under perhaps a mistaken impression that it's all or nothing.
Block Ukx KDM Corp Firmus Ixion	Posted - 2007.11.08 21:56:00 - [56] Originally by: Hanoi Hana How can you split your plan into parts? I was under perhaps a mistaken impression that it's all or nothing. There seems to be a controversy as to what would be the ideal amount to manipulate the mineral market. I donÆt have any solid evidence to say that is 300 B, thatÆs my intuition. Certainly the plan can be put into action with less, but it might not be as effective. So a possible compromise is to release the venture in stages, gather information and decide as to what should be the optimal size.
tornpain	Posted - 2007.11.09 02:44:00 - [57] So you really have no clue how much isk you'll need? Christ, man, do a dry run with a couple billion and extrapolate.
FastLearner Fury Holdings Brutally Clever Empire	Posted - 2007.11.09 02:51:00 - [58] Originally by: tornpain So you really have no clue how much isk you'll need? Christ, man, do a dry run with a couple billion and extrapolate. That's just not possible. There's a "critical mass" of ISK required for any decent market manipulation - below that you get your fingers burned and learn nothing about what would happen with more capital. That critical mass varies depending on lots of factors (region, item, source of item etc). The tricky part is picking an initial invesmtment size for this which is definitely large enough to succeed - but doesn't leave too much ISK sitting around idle.
tornpain	Posted - 2007.11.09 04:12:00 - [59] Obviously you pick an item with less volume. Do I have to do all the work for this for you and your alt?
Akita T Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force	Posted - 2007.11.09 04:20:00 - [60] Originally by: tornpain Obviously you pick an item with less volume. Do I have to do all the work for this for you and your alt? WTS: clues, by the cartload. Complementary cluebats and cluehammers included. The mineral market is NOT like "any other market". "Insights" you gather over price manipulation in any other markets DO NOT apply verbatim to the mineral market. _ New character creation guide \| [CNVTF] corp recruiting \| Stacknerfs explained

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