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Clurk Brodon
Yog-Sothoth Heavy Industries
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Posted - 2008.02.06 17:17:00 -
[1]
Jita ferrogel market, a few minutes ago.
3.6 million units of ferrogel (88 billion ISK) hovering above a few sloppy buy orders. 33 sell orders representing 2 million units activated in the last 12 hours. Traders desperatly undercutting each other and nobody wants to buy.
Going to be fun.
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Shar Tegral
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Posted - 2008.02.06 17:23:00 -
[2]
Indeed it will be fun to watch.
To Shar -verb:
1 - To say what you mean.
2 - To say what it means.
3 - To say something mean.
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Roguehalo
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Posted - 2008.02.06 17:25:00 -
[3]
Edited by: Roguehalo on 06/02/2008 17:31:40
I see buy orders for 1 million + units at not much below sell order price.
Are we looking at the same market here?
Ok i see your point now . there is rather a lot just been dumped on the market
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Mr McCargo
The Paradox Continium
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Posted - 2008.02.06 17:27:00 -
[4]
Oh oh, I can see meh orders on teh piktur!
Anyways, I'm hoping for some big fish to come and do some cha-cha-cha. Going to be fun indeed.
- Mr C |
Clurk Brodon
Yog-Sothoth Heavy Industries
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Posted - 2008.02.06 17:54:00 -
[5]
Ironically, this 3.6 million units glut is roughly the yearly output of one ferrogel reactor. Or the weekly output of 50 reactors.
50? Sounds familiar.
Bah, no worry. Even if the ferrogel market is on the brink of collapse, fermionic condensate is 100% safe, right?
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Shar Tegral
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Posted - 2008.02.06 18:02:00 -
[6]
 Originally by: Clurk Brodon
Bah, no worry. Even if the ferrogel market is on the brink of collapse, fermionic condensate is 100% safe, right?
I'm smelling market manipulation now. Not in Jita, this thread.
To Shar -verb:
1 - To say what you mean.
2 - To say what it means.
3 - To say something mean.
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Lucas Avignon
Avignon Associates Inc.
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Posted - 2008.02.06 18:06:00 -
[7]
Edited by: Lucas Avignon on 06/02/2008 18:09:32
Originally by: Shar Tegral
Originally by: Clurk Brodon
Bah, no worry. Even if the ferrogel market is on the brink of collapse, fermionic condensate is 100% safe, right?
I'm smelling market manipulation now. Not in Jita, this thread.
I do smell something 
So what your saying is now is a good time to buy ferrogel...
Amirite ...?
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Clurk Brodon
Yog-Sothoth Heavy Industries
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Posted - 2008.02.06 18:19:00 -
[8]
Just watch and enjoy the show.
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Benvie
Benvie Enterprises
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Posted - 2008.02.06 19:01:00 -
[9]
Do you smell what the rock is cooking? I couldn't resist. There's 1.5-2 million units of Ferrogel traded daily in Jita. If there's a glut one day then those who just dumped their goodies won't be shipping another haul for 1-2 weeks. It evens out over the long run. You can't just produce more Ferrogel on demand, it's not like mining. It takes weeks of ramp up time and billions to set up the POSes and initial materials.
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Shar Tegral
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Posted - 2008.02.06 19:12:00 -
[10]
Originally by: Clurk Brodon
Just watch and enjoy the show.
Benvie may have responded to you with his knowledge but I'm going to go a step further indeed. Why? Because I hate a bald face liar that doesn't know when his bluff is that is stinking, not the hand he's trying to play.
Don't play me in poker.
I'll own you there too.
The Real Ferrogel-Jita Market
To Shar -verb:
1 - To say what you mean.
2 - To say what it means.
3 - To say something mean.
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Shar Tegral
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Posted - 2008.02.06 19:13:00 -
[11]
Originally by: Shar Tegral
The Real Ferrogel-Jita Market
BTW that, I should've pointed out, is another one of my excel spreadsheets with some charting. I do not know if it will open for OpenOffice or any other spreadsheet application.
To Shar -verb:
1 - To say what you mean.
2 - To say what it means.
3 - To say something mean.
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Treelox
Amarr
Market Jihadist Revolutionary Party
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Posted - 2008.02.06 19:28:00 -
[12]
Thank you Shar, for providing proof positive of the reasons why I totally ignore these types of threads except for the humor aspect they provide once the OP has to backstep and/or squirm.
--
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Myrdyr
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Posted - 2008.02.06 19:40:00 -
[13]
Shar's spreadsheet isn't accurate though. There is something in the price history that truncates peak values -- I don't know if it's a requisite volume necessary or what, but Ferrogel definitely was above 30k/unit January 19th/20th; I have the wallet data to prove it, though I wasn't the cause, just piggybacking on someone else's market manipulation.
Please post constructively. ~Saint |
Shar Tegral
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Posted - 2008.02.06 19:43:00 -
[14]
Originally by: Myrdyr
Shar's spreadsheet isn't accurate though. There is something in the price history that truncates peak values -- I don't know if it's a requisite volume necessary or what, but Ferrogel definitely was above 30k/unit January 19th/20th; I have the wallet data to prove it, though I wasn't the cause, just piggybacking on someone else's market manipulation.
It is the average transaction price, not the highest transaction price. Yes, there were occasional sales that high but those are not indicators of market movement. However, don't take my word for it. Actually go and check it yourself. You will find the data to be quite accurate.
To Shar -verb:
1 - To say what you mean.
2 - To say what it means.
3 - To say something mean.
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Myrdyr
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Posted - 2008.02.06 19:48:00 -
[15]
Edited by: Myrdyr on 06/02/2008 19:50:45
I was talking about your raw data spreadsheet, which is, as I said before, inaccurate both in game on the price history tab, as well as in your spreadsheet.
edit: rereading your post makes you sound a little disbelieving..i'll whip up a screenshot in one sec
Please post constructively. ~Saint |
Myrdyr
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Posted - 2008.02.06 19:55:00 -
[16]
Please post constructively. ~Saint |
Shadarle
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Posted - 2008.02.06 20:11:00 -
[17]
Myrdyr nothing in his post is wrong per-say, it is actually an issue with the way CCP reports things.
Outliers are not listed. What determines an outlier in EVE I'm not exactly sure, but the highest values are generally not shown. Anyone who analyzes lots of markets should know this. So Shar is likely pointing out exactly what is listed in game, the fact that a few people sold/bought for more than that does not make the numbers flat out wrong (just incomplete due to CCP's reporting).
Stacking Penalty / Resists Explained |
Shar Tegral
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Posted - 2008.02.06 20:17:00 -
[18]
And, as I've always said regarding this, outliers do not a market make. Great when you can get the occasional super sale but again does not a market make. (And the outliers in my experience, from testing, is more inclusive than exclusive.)
To Shar -verb:
1 - To say what you mean.
2 - To say what it means.
3 - To say something mean.
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Myrdyr
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Posted - 2008.02.06 20:19:00 -
[19]
It most certainly is wrong to portray a clipped set of sample data as anything close to an actual average, and I'm pretty certain (from watching the orders around me that day pretty close) that there was fairly sizable isk volume moved above 30k, but as I wasn't spamming the export orders button I can't be certain.
It's also pretty certain that Shar wasn't aware of the outlier clipping which is all that I'm trying to point out. Unless you're both active in the market at the same time you're surveying through the price history you won't notice it -- and certainly most people won't be doing both at the same time...
Please post constructively. ~Saint |
Shadarle
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Posted - 2008.02.06 20:26:00 -
[20]
Originally by: Myrdyr
It most certainly is wrong to portray a clipped set of sample data as anything close to an actual average, and I'm pretty certain (from watching the orders around me that day pretty close) that there was fairly sizable isk volume moved above 30k, but as I wasn't spamming the export orders button I can't be certain.
It's also pretty certain that Shar wasn't aware of the outlier clipping which is all that I'm trying to point out. Unless you're both active in the market at the same time you're surveying through the price history you won't notice it -- and certainly most people won't be doing both at the same time...
You're trying to attack Shar and his data but you are doing so disingenuously. The point of his data is to show the market trends. It does that. The fact that a few people payed more than the average does not change anything. You can say you "believe" all you want, but according to the hard data your beliefs are wrong. If enough people payed more money then they wouldn't have been dropped as outliers.
I fail to see how anything you're arguing has any bearing on anything.
Stacking Penalty / Resists Explained |
Kylar Renpurs
Dusk Blade
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Posted - 2008.02.06 21:02:00 -
[21]
Meh,, my Ferrogel-related products are still for sale. As far as I'm concerned, the market is pretty normal.
Improve Market Competition! |
Kwint Sommer
Incoherent Inc
Otaku Invasion
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Posted - 2008.02.06 21:07:00 -
[22]
Using lowest Jita sell values updated 5-minutes ago; a normal Ferrogel reaction chain produces 576k units per month.
Cost of raw minerals going into 576k units of Ferrogel: 12,116,520,000 ISK
Value of 576k units of Ferrogel: 13,989,312,000 ISK
Difference: 1,872,792,000 ISK
Fuel for the 4 POS's needed: 1,132,698,240 ISK
Monthly Profit: 740,093,760 ISK
Profit per unit of Ferrogel: 1285 ISK
% of Ferrogel Cost representing profit: 5.3%
To sum up, anyone that thinks Ferrogel's price is inflated is an idiot.
To those looking at that number and wondering how that even justifies running the POS's, let alone makes me a solid profit: I assure you there are ways to make at least 30% a month off of those rather skimpy looking numbers.
5% Mining & Manufacturing Implants |
Benvie
Benvie Enterprises
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Posted - 2008.02.06 21:12:00 -
[23]
Edited by: Benvie on 06/02/2008 21:12:33
The prices of Promethium and Dysprosium, especially Promethium, have inflated to an extreme degree over the last two weeks. Either they will go down or Ferrogel will go up. Right now we're just at momentary blip in the market where both prices have gone a bit haywire. It'll take a couple weeks for the Ferrogel price to rebound, but it will assuming Dysprosium and Promethium stay in the stratosphere.
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Myrdyr
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Posted - 2008.02.06 21:13:00 -
[24]
Originally by: Shadarle
You're trying to attack Shar and his data but you are doing so disingenuously. The point of his data is to show the market trends. It does that. The fact that a few people payed more than the average does not change anything. You can say you "believe" all you want, but according to the hard data your beliefs are wrong. If enough people payed more money then they wouldn't have been dropped as outliers.
I fail to see how anything you're arguing has any bearing on anything.
Cropping outliers when they're legitimate market data is going to hide the effects of market manipulation. CCP's behavior (which is obviously to help prevent/hide the misclicks-or-manipulations-for-billions) helps people who make money manipulating actual prices as opposed to manipulating averages; I think that's just as bad as the problem they seem to think they're solving, and this seemed like a good time to raise that point.
Originally by: Kwint Sommer
To those looking at that number and wondering how that even justifies running the POS's, let alone makes me a solid profit: I assure you there are ways to make at least 30% a month off of those rather skimpy looking numbers.
Gee, could it be by buying simple reactions when appropriate according to build cost on the market?
Please post constructively. ~Saint |
Shadarle
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Posted - 2008.02.06 21:24:00 -
[25]
Originally by: Myrdyr
Originally by: Shadarle
You're trying to attack Shar and his data but you are doing so disingenuously. The point of his data is to show the market trends. It does that. The fact that a few people payed more than the average does not change anything. You can say you "believe" all you want, but according to the hard data your beliefs are wrong. If enough people payed more money then they wouldn't have been dropped as outliers.
I fail to see how anything you're arguing has any bearing on anything.
Cropping outliers when they're legitimate market data is going to hide the effects of market manipulation. CCP's behavior (which is obviously to help prevent/hide the misclicks-or-manipulations-for-billions) helps people who make money manipulating actual prices as opposed to manipulating averages; I think that's just as bad as the problem they seem to think they're solving, and this seemed like a good time to raise that point.
You do understand what an outlier is, correct?
Originally by: Wikipedia
In statistics such as stratified samples, an outlier is an observation that is numerically distant from the rest of the data. Statistics derived from data sets that include outliers will often be misleading. For example, if one is calculating the average temperature of 10 objects in a room, and most are between 20 and 25 degrees Celsius, but an oven is at 350 ŚC, the median of the data may be 23 but the mean temperature will be 55. In this case, the median better reflects the temperature of a randomly sampled object than the mean. Outliers may be indicative of data points that belong to a different population than the rest of the sample set.
The market averages is exactly what is required to see the trend of a market. Shar provided the averages. This is what should be looked at. I do not understand why you continue to argue about this. Who cares that outliers were not listed? Why should they be? They don't show anything important as regards to this topic. We are looking at the general trends of the market.
Stacking Penalty / Resists Explained |
Myrdyr
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Posted - 2008.02.06 21:38:00 -
[26]
Originally by: Shadarle
You do understand what an outlier is, correct?
Being condescending works better when you're right.
The point is that valid data (actual market transactions, not market transactions done to manipulate averages and highs/lows) is being excluded from the data set. Any kind of volatility analysis will be corrupted as a result.
Why do you think Shar's charts show such nice curves rather than seeing some jagged spikes? There should be spikes according to which days ferrogel saw peak-ish volume. My sample set, from a seller's viewpoint, looks like this:
My screenshot shows data that is most certainly not an outlier, yet CCP's algorithms (whatever they may be) decided to trim them out. BS, I say.
Furthermore,
Please post constructively. ~Saint |
Shar Tegral
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Posted - 2008.02.06 22:00:00 -
[27]
Originally by: Myrdyr
Why do you think Shar's charts show such nice curves rather than seeing some jagged spikes? There should be spikes according to which days ferrogel saw peak-ish volume. My sample set, from a seller's viewpoint, looks like this:
Actually the nice curve is from trending and standardization. For analysis such techniques are used to demonstrate... well trends. It is not designed to demonstrate unique instances. (This is not to sound condescending btw) Outliers are unique instances that can be used to jigger the market. I know as I've done it a number of times. It is still possible to do this but you have to do it so that it happens under the outlier range. (It's mostly a matter of volume.) But the end result is this, while you may point out that my numbers are not all the numbers in play (that there can be even higher numbers going on), the charts and data presented is accurate enough to refute the bullcrap that the OP was saying to start with. That I think we can all agree with... except the OP.
To Shar -verb:
1 - To say what you mean.
2 - To say what it means.
3 - To say something mean.
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Myrdyr
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Posted - 2008.02.06 22:12:00 -
[28]
Originally by: Shar Tegral
...the charts and data presented is accurate enough to refute the bullcrap that the OP was saying to start with.
That I think we can all agree with... except the OP.
Most definitely 
Looking over your charts again they're really not that far off; it's just the lows will be over-represented relative to the highs because of the false-outlier trimming. A false low will always get washed out due to buy order volume where a false high (as in, not showing a high enough price) being missing will lead you to underestimates.
Anyway mostly I got excited someone else whipped out their stats in the same field I've been watching the past couple months. The really cool chart to watch is the build cost of complex reactions relative to their component cost (simple reactions), further relative to the mineral cost. I haven't overlaid all of them on top of each other yet in a graph though, but it doesn't take much before you can say "Oh, see, the supply/price of Dysprosium got disrupted there and it took X days to ripple up into the simple reactions, but this one wasn't enough to affect complex reactions prices but a few days later this was."
Please post constructively. ~Saint |
jongalt
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Posted - 2008.02.06 22:15:00 -
[29]
Originally by: Shar Tegral
Don't play me in poker.
I'll own you there too.
all roads eventually lead to nyc. 
-jg.
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Drab Cane
Caldari
Mining Emporium inc.
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Posted - 2008.02.06 22:21:00 -
[30]
Edited by: Drab Cane on 06/02/2008 22:23:57
- Post deleted - no longer relevant -
- Who Dares, Wins |
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