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Tasko Pal
Heron Corporation
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Posted - 2008.02.23 06:13:00 -
[31]
Edited by: Tasko Pal on 23/02/2008 06:13:25
Originally by: Shadarle
Originally by: Motivated Prophet They wouldn't magically just *poof* run out of implants to sell, Shad. The price would have drifted up over time.
Sorry, I'm calling bull**** on this one unless you have more supporting evidence or some twist to the story you haven't revealed.
MP
They didn't just magically "poof" run out of implants. It slowly happened, but the supply was so massive that it didn't show up to most people. Some people were slowly stockpiling because they saw a trend. As people ran out of LP's and the market went from having thousands of implants to hundreds some enterprising individual went around and bought up all of them. Prices jumped, so some people who stockpiled unloaded their goods which forced prices down a bit again... but then that persons stockpile ran out, so then prices jumped again... and more stockpilers unloaded. This process went on for a while, we're not at the stage where almost every stockpiler has run out of goods and yet demand is still far higher than supply. More and more people are trying to supply them through LP (which are now worth 2-3 times more than they were a month ago).
It's an interesting situation. Made quite profitable as I was one of those enterprising individuals. What's the most interesting is that people are still manipulating some of the markets... which is really cool for me. Every time the prices go down they go back up a day later, so it's become a major windfall.
But the major point is that the prices would have never been so low if all the old timers hadn't come back and crashed the prices when the new graphics was launched. Once those old timers realized they should get more than 300isk per lp the prices have jumped... slowly they will dip again to around the 1000 isk/lp, at least until enough people start running missions again and force prices downward.
It's a persuasive story. I can verify that a number of people in my corp came back for trinity and ran a lot of missions. What bothers me is the claim that it was LP. If I were sitting on a pile of say, Caldari LP, I'd have cashed it in on CNRs or +5 implants before I bothered with +3 or +4. In the case of the CNRs, you don't even need to spend isk to get isk. The lower bonus implants are way underpriced compared to the +5 ones. I always thought storyline rewards were driving down the price of the +3/+4 implants. That's why I mentioned the research alt crowd. Those guys would have run a ton of storylines in order to get standing up quicker. But now that economic opportunity has dried up.
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Tasko Pal
Heron Corporation
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Posted - 2008.02.23 06:18:00 -
[32]
Originally by: Aldelphius
Honsetly this shoud have been expected, seeing as +5's were selling for 10-20m over cost, making lp's 100-200 isk each.
I stand corrected. I didn't realize the +5 implants were selling that low. That certainly sounds like LP store stuff. Are there other sources for +5 implants? I gather that there isn't, but I don't know.
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Shadarle
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Posted - 2008.02.23 08:58:00 -
[33]
Originally by: Tasko Pal It's a persuasive story. I can verify that a number of people in my corp came back for trinity and ran a lot of missions. What bothers me is the claim that it was LP. If I were sitting on a pile of say, Caldari LP, I'd have cashed it in on CNRs or +5 implants before I bothered with +3 or +4. In the case of the CNRs, you don't even need to spend isk to get isk. The lower bonus implants are way underpriced compared to the +5 ones. I always thought storyline rewards were driving down the price of the +3/+4 implants. That's why I mentioned the research alt crowd. Those guys would have run a ton of storylines in order to get standing up quicker. But now that economic opportunity has dried up.
As you seem to have figured out, most of the LP store stuff was selling in then 250-300 isk/lp range a month ago.
Anyone who used their LP's on +5's were idiots, at one point people were selling them for less isk than they payed for them through the store. That was a while back though.
CNR's have never had a good value, too many people redeem their LP's for them. +3's used to be far better to cash in for... until all the old timers came back and found massive amounts of LP's to use and didn't know how to do basic math.
So basically my basic rule of thumb, never underestimate the amount of money you can make off of stupid people, was in full force here. People were redeeming LP for items that were nearly worthless... some smart people were snapping them all up, prices jump drastically, those people unload and make insane money. Stacking Penalty / Resists Explained |
Stefan F
Enrave
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Posted - 2008.02.23 13:27:00 -
[34]
Originally by: Shadarle
They didn't just magically "poof" run out of implants. It slowly happened, but the supply was so massive that it didn't show up to most people. Some people were slowly stockpiling because they saw a trend. As people ran out of LP's and the market went from having thousands of implants to hundreds some enterprising individual went around and bought up all of them. Prices jumped, so some people who stockpiled unloaded their goods which forced prices down a bit again... but then that persons stockpile ran out, so then prices jumped again... and more stockpilers unloaded. This process went on for a while, we're not at the stage where almost every stockpiler has run out of goods and yet demand is still far higher than supply. More and more people are trying to supply them through LP (which are now worth 2-3 times more than they were a month ago).
It's an interesting situation. Made quite profitable as I was one of those enterprising individuals. What's the most interesting is that people are still manipulating some of the markets... which is really cool for me. Every time the prices go down they go back up a day later, so it's become a major windfall.
But the major point is that the prices would have never been so low if all the old timers hadn't come back and crashed the prices when the new graphics was launched. Once those old timers realized they should get more than 300isk per lp the prices have jumped... slowly they will dip again to around the 1000 isk/lp, at least until enough people start running missions again and force prices downward.
Jep this is most of the story, small scale manipulation in a market with more demand then supply worked very well again. I only put in 800M last week, got it up to 1,6B 4 days later. Nice turnover ratio for me, and i surely must have made some stockpilers like you happy too in the process
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Jin Chandra
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Posted - 2008.02.23 21:02:00 -
[35]
Originally by: Shadarle
Once those old timers realized they should get more than 300isk per lp the prices have jumped... slowly they will dip again to around the 1000 isk/lp, at least until enough people start running missions again and force prices downward.
Well to be honest, the prices some weeks ago where even lower then what people paid to the LP store in ISK for the implants
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Toria Nynys
Minmatar
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Posted - 2008.02.23 21:14:00 -
[36]
To toss my 5ISK in: I'm not getting +4 implant storyline offers anywhere nearly as often as I used to. Could be just the random number generator, or it could be the supply has just been squeezed shut.
The storyline implants are the ones selling below LP store isk cost -- they are 'free', like ores people mine.
Seems like a good time to cash out a few million LP, see what develops.
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Shadowsword
COLSUP Tau Ceti Federation
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Posted - 2008.02.24 00:21:00 -
[37]
Originally by: Shadarle So basically my basic rule of thumb, never underestimate the amount of money you can make off of stupid people, was in full force here. People were redeeming LP for items that were nearly worthless... some smart people were snapping them all up, prices jump drastically, those people unload and make insane money.
Well, I'm not an expert trader, but I'd be wary of investing in anything that is dependant on LP. Because the supply can increase very, very fast, if tongues start moving, and because a lot of mission-runners are, well, mindless drones, and would keep selling what was perceived at "the best lp stuff to sell, period" long after said stuff wasn't profitable anymore. Navy issue ravens are a good example of that. It would be, inconvenient, to find yourself with a stock of stuff whose price would stay very low for a long while. ------------------------------------------
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Ashina Sito
Gallente Center for Advanced Studies
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Posted - 2008.02.24 06:37:00 -
[38]
I can't find the second thread I wanted to post. It was about a guy in China that went to an Eve ISK macro farming sweatshop for a job interview. The important part was that they had 200 pilots running and were looking to expand to 1,000.
http://oldforums.eveonline.com/?a=topic&threadID=709600
Do the math.
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Desu Terror
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Posted - 2008.02.24 14:40:00 -
[39]
Originally by: Ashina Sito I can't find the second thread I wanted to post. It was about a guy in China that went to an Eve ISK macro farming sweatshop for a job interview. The important part was that they had 200 pilots running and were looking to expand to 1,000.
http://oldforums.eveonline.com/?a=topic&threadID=709600
Do the math.
This. Before the prices went up I got 90% of my implants from Ingunn where about 100 macro haulers where running missions 24/7. Now they are all gone for some reason and the implant supply came to a sudden stop.
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Pickled Herring
Uncle Fester's Olde Tyme Barbershoppe
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Posted - 2008.02.24 16:50:00 -
[40]
Originally by: Desu Terror
This. Before the prices went up I got 90% of my implants from Ingunn where about 100 macro haulers where running missions 24/7. Now they are all gone for some reason and the implant supply came to a sudden stop.
In your case, the reason, apparently, is HERE
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Ashina Sito
Gallente Center for Advanced Studies
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Posted - 2008.02.24 18:49:00 -
[41]
Originally by: Desu Terror
This.
Thanks for the confirm.
Shadarle had the right idea but got there with wrong route. In other words, got lucky. Now that operation will move to another location and start again. Can't lose their RL cash flow. When they are back up and running full speed you will see implant prices plumet again. Then they will rise after people go and gank the hell out of them.
I didn't have any numbers but a wild guesstimate came up with 1 +5 implnat and 8 each of +4 and +3 for every 5 pilot gang every other day of farming. That is in addition to about 2.3 billion ISK in mission pay. Your looking at a LOT of implant production that just went poof.
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Shadarle
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Posted - 2008.02.24 20:16:00 -
[42]
Originally by: Ashina Sito I didn't have any numbers but a wild guesstimate
Well, how could anyone argue with your detailed logical reasoning here? Obviously you must be correct!
Making numbers up out of thin air is usually the best way to make an argument I've always found.
Stacking Penalty / Resists Explained |
Tachypnea
Blue Moon Rising Blood and Steel
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Posted - 2008.02.24 20:18:00 -
[43]
43.6% of statistics are made up on the spot, and 76.1% of people know this.
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Shadarle
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Posted - 2008.02.24 21:12:00 -
[44]
Originally by: Tachypnea 43.6% of statistics are made up on the spot, and 76.1% of people know this.
11% of people know that statistic and 91% still use it incorrectly. Stacking Penalty / Resists Explained |
Ashina Sito
Gallente Center for Advanced Studies
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Posted - 2008.02.24 23:33:00 -
[45]
Originally by: Shadarle
Originally by: Ashina Sito I didn't have any numbers but a wild guesstimate
Well, how could anyone argue with your detailed logical reasoning here? Obviously you must be correct!
Making numbers up out of thin air is usually the best way to make an argument I've always found.
Hence...
Originally by: Ashina Sito I didn't have any numbers but a wild guesstimate
I did the math using the general understanding I have of how courier missions could be semi-automated. Since I am at work, not on the water, and nothing is going on here ya go.
I get 879 as a commen ammout of LP on a courier mission. I never bothered to level socail skills higher then L3 so you should be able to reach 1000 LP per mission with skills and a better agent then I use. They are running in LOW-SEC so they get Quality 20 agents (this is assumed, would be stupid to do otherwise since players could interfear with the operation.) So...
1000 PL per mission * 3 missions per hour. (conservitive number, should be able to do mre then this.)
So one pilot earning 3k PL per hour is the result.
3*23 hours = 69000 LP per day
You have 4 other pilots in the gang sharing LP.
69000 * 4 = 276000 LP
5 pilots in gang so devide that by 5...
276000 / 5 = 55200 per pilot per day.
1 Pliot makes 124200 LP per day
4 pilots make 55200 LP per day
or
1 pilot makes 248200 LP every 2 days.
4 Pilots make 110400 LP every 2 days.
Now, I don't have the cost of a +5 implant on hand but it seems to me that it should be around 300k LP right? Out mythical pushed pilot doesn't have that much LP so we have a problem right? Wrong.
CCP in their infinate wisdom groups the top end agents together. Anyone know how many agents are in the system mentioned in the links above? There should be 2-3 L4 Q20 agants there... In the same station if CCP is true to form...
Multiply the numbers above by the number of additional agents.
2 agents = 248400/110400 PER DAY
3 agents = 372600/165600 PER DAY
Now apply that to 100 pilots which would break down to 20 groups of pilots EVERY ONE of them making those numbers listed above...
As I said, "wild guesstimate". It's not worth my time to break down the actual numbers and get it with a variance of .01%. THere are gaps in my understanding of the process and I don't know how many agents or the layout of the local systems to balance time efficiency for running courier missions there. Frankly it doesn't really matter and I don't care, I am not running an ISK for cash farming operation. The fact is this...
If I am over estimating by 50%... They are still producing a crapload of implants and Eve players spent time busting the operation and that flow of implants has been removed from the game... oddly enough at the same time your seeing a rise in implant costs... gee... wonder if there is a link...
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cosmoray
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Posted - 2008.02.25 00:55:00 -
[46]
Originally by: Ashina Sito
Originally by: Shadarle
Originally by: Ashina Sito I didn't have any numbers but a wild guesstimate
Well, how could anyone argue with your detailed logical reasoning here? Obviously you must be correct!
Making numbers up out of thin air is usually the best way to make an argument I've always found.
Hence...
Originally by: Ashina Sito I didn't have any numbers but a wild guesstimate
I did the math using the general understanding I have of how courier missions could be semi-automated. Since I am at work, not on the water, and nothing is going on here ya go.
I get 879 as a commen ammout of LP on a courier mission. I never bothered to level socail skills higher then L3 so you should be able to reach 1000 LP per mission with skills and a better agent then I use. They are running in LOW-SEC so they get Quality 20 agents (this is assumed, would be stupid to do otherwise since players could interfear with the operation.) So...
1000 PL per mission * 3 missions per hour. (conservitive number, should be able to do mre then this.)
So one pilot earning 3k PL per hour is the result.
3*23 hours = 69000 LP per day
You have 4 other pilots in the gang sharing LP.
69000 * 4 = 276000 LP
5 pilots in gang so devide that by 5...
276000 / 5 = 55200 per pilot per day.
1 Pliot makes 124200 LP per day
4 pilots make 55200 LP per day
or
1 pilot makes 248200 LP every 2 days.
4 Pilots make 110400 LP every 2 days.
Now, I don't have the cost of a +5 implant on hand but it seems to me that it should be around 300k LP right? Out mythical pushed pilot doesn't have that much LP so we have a problem right? Wrong.
CCP in their infinate wisdom groups the top end agents together. Anyone know how many agents are in the system mentioned in the links above? There should be 2-3 L4 Q20 agants there... In the same station if CCP is true to form...
Multiply the numbers above by the number of additional agents.
2 agents = 248400/110400 PER DAY
3 agents = 372600/165600 PER DAY
Now apply that to 100 pilots which would break down to 20 groups of pilots EVERY ONE of them making those numbers listed above...
As I said, "wild guesstimate". It's not worth my time to break down the actual numbers and get it with a variance of .01%. THere are gaps in my understanding of the process and I don't know how many agents or the layout of the local systems to balance time efficiency for running courier missions there. Frankly it doesn't really matter and I don't care, I am not running an ISK for cash farming operation. The fact is this...
If I am over estimating by 50%... They are still producing a crapload of implants and Eve players spent time busting the operation and that flow of implants has been removed from the game... oddly enough at the same time your seeing a rise in implant costs... gee... wonder if there is a link...
Wow maths. You lost yourself, in the algebra. When you share LP rewards you 'share', so the rewards still revert back to your premise.
If a person runs 3 missions per hr @ 1K per mission, then you get 69K LP per day per pilot. Just leave the maths at that.
When added up it is still a lot, but if 1 market is going up, they flood it, prices drop, rinse repeat.
But the massive market changes occuring in time with Trinity were a large combination of events. Returning players cashing out LP and RP points. Players stocking up on cores for new invention, the escalation of war in Delve, pre-trinity stockpiling, etc.....
Every patch/expansion will be the same. There will be some individuals who will work out certain outcomes that will likely occur at the patch and make a killing, and others will make a whopping loss. Thats how markets work.
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Ashina Sito
Gallente Center for Advanced Studies
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Posted - 2008.02.25 02:58:00 -
[47]
Originally by: cosmoray When you share LP rewards you 'share', so the rewards still revert back to your premise.
Your missing an element. Your making a pusher to get more LP to buy those expensive items faster. 1 pilot turns in for self. The other 4 do a gang turn in. That way the pushed pilot gets 1.8x the LP they would get if they just ran solo.
You need to think like an ISK farmer/seller. Your under threat of getting banned at any time. You want to make sure your cashing out your ISK/LP as fast as you can to minimize losses when/if banned. By making a pushed pilot your doing two things at once. First your spreading out the items you sell to keep from over saturating the market for that item. Also your getting that expensive item bought and converted into ISK quickly so that you don't lose that stored LP.
A few hundred ISK farmers are going to make far more of a dent then a few stupid returning Eve players.
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2008.02.25 04:55:00 -
[48]
+5 implants are 65 mil ISK + 65k LP, not the "300k" you guys seem to mention over here. Also, wouldn't it make more sense to get *3 LP in case of a 5-man "concentrator" operation (the other 4 get *0.5) ?
1|2|3|4|5. |
Ashina Sito
Gallente Center for Advanced Studies
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Posted - 2008.02.25 05:18:00 -
[49]
I was the one saying 300... use to looking at faction implants.
None the less, point still stands.
Don't understand the question the way you have it phrased there.
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2008.02.25 08:16:00 -
[50]
Meaning, if you want to "focus" LPs in a group of 5, it would make more sense to: * person 1 (focus) completes missions solo = *1 * person 2 gangs person 1 and completes mission in gang of two, then leaves = each *0.5 * persons 3,4,5 do the same as person 2 Person 1 has *3, persons 2,3,4,5 have *0.5 of average LP now.
1|2|3|4|5. |
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Arvald
Caldari House of Tempers
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Posted - 2008.02.25 21:30:00 -
[51]
i say we all get naked, get a greased up pig and have us a party........nevermind ---------------------------------------------
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Tasko Pal
Heron Corporation
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Posted - 2008.02.25 23:58:00 -
[52]
Edited by: Tasko Pal on 25/02/2008 23:58:32 Incidentally, to get some idea of the scale of these operations, apparently someone popped a freighter (in January) in high sec space with 15 navy throns. That's 9 mil LP carried in one ship. Unfortunately, the freighter pilot managed to come back and pop the wreck before the ships could be removed. In low sec, that's probably around 1000 kill missions or 5000 courier missions (assuming good social skills).
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Carniflex
Caldari Fallout Research Fallout Project
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Posted - 2008.02.26 09:32:00 -
[53]
Originally by: Shadarle
Originally by: Tachypnea 43.6% of statistics are made up on the spot, and 76.1% of people know this.
11% of people know that statistic and 91% still use it incorrectly.
Ummm ... wait. 102% total. *goes for tinfoil hat*. There is 2% of aliens among us controlling our toughts. Cheap implants was their plot to take over the world.
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Tron Sarkus
Blue. Blue Federation
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Posted - 2008.02.27 14:06:00 -
[54]
They have now dropped quite far overnight. At least in the Forge.
I'm confused...
Blue CEO Red vs Blue |
cosmoray
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Posted - 2008.02.27 15:27:00 -
[55]
Originally by: Tron Sarkus They have now dropped quite far overnight. At least in the Forge.
I'm confused...
To late to join the bandwagon? Cash out now, and invest elsewhere
Everyone is now buying Amarr stuff because of patch changes, well according to Akita anyway!!
Buy more Scorch !!!!!
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Lobster Man
Metafarmers
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Posted - 2008.02.27 17:57:00 -
[56]
The number of farmers in lowsec seems to have dropped quite a bit in the past few weeks also (thanks partly to us, I like to think ), and they were quite a large source of implants. We would pop noobships in ingunn with 10 of each type of +4 in them on a fairly regular basis. With the number of farmers seemingly diminished, I can only imagine that would lead to a diminished supply of implants from their LP stores. With demand staying more or less the same, it is only natural that prices go up.
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Shadarle
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Posted - 2008.02.27 18:52:00 -
[57]
Originally by: Tron Sarkus They have now dropped quite far overnight. At least in the Forge.
I'm confused...
I take it you have not really been following this market over the past two weeks?
The prices jump/dive every day. A range of 30-40% isn't uncommon in Jita right now. If prices are low for the last few days it just means they are about to jump back up again.
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Kwint Sommer
Lothian Quay Industries Zzz
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Posted - 2008.02.27 20:11:00 -
[58]
Edited by: Kwint Sommer on 27/02/2008 20:14:05 I guess I chose a bad time to loose Admiral Kwint's +4 clone
5% Mining & Manufacturing Implants |
Death4free
Caldari R0ADKILL
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Posted - 2008.02.27 20:13:00 -
[59]
EVERYONE WHAT THE OP SAYS IS TRUE AND HEARS THE PROOF
i was casually observing the jita market and i checked implants when suddenly...bang an implant exploded and killed my ship
any donations would b gratefully accepted
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Ulstan
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Posted - 2008.02.27 22:16:00 -
[60]
If implant prices are rising, I can't say I'm surprised.
Last time I looked at a set of +4's they were about 11 mill each? Something ridiculously low like that anyway.
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