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Kwint Sommer
Lothian Quay Industries
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Posted - 2008.04.28 15:53:00 -
[31]
Unfortunately my POS's hit the 1-day market the night he started manipulating this. Fortunately, I was able to acquire a freighter full at 45 per unit and what didn't go into my POS got sold at 90 for enough profit to not just negate the high cost but to cover the time it took to acquire it. 
If I'm interpreting the numbers right, the manipulator absorbed close to two weeks worth of Jita sales at 3x the going rate and another weeks worth at 1.4x the going rate. Judging from the very short interval over which he sustained these prices, I sincerely doubt he was able to unload any more than a full day's Jita sales worth at these prices. Given the way the price is crashing, this would appear to be the worst attempt at market manipulation I've seen but I made a decent profit off of it so who am I criticize. 
Purchasing and Shipping Moon Minerals |
Carniflex
Caldari
Fallout Research
Fallout Project
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Posted - 2008.04.30 08:40:00 -
[32]
 Originally by: Letrange
Ah, this explains things. Was a bit surprised since the manipulation happened just as I was buying the extra heavy water I need for my POSes. Although it's normally considered a waste product it's actually the item high sec research POSes need the most of in ratio to the other ice products. So it's usually: have the alliance mine what they can and buy extra heavy water off the market.
Obviously there aren't enough high sec research POSes to counterbalance the demands of capital ship movement (which the other two ice products from standard ice go into).
Well. I referred it as 'waste product' bcos it's side product of liquid ozone (dark glitter) and strontsium (krystallos) production, both heavily consumed in greater quantities than heavy water. Long past are the days when those products were refined on the spot in POS refineries and excess HW just dumped into space to make room for 'useful stuff'. Nowdays it's almost all compressed and jumped into local outpost (from where it does not enter into empire usually bcos of bulk and low cost per unit) or into some low sec station (from where it can actually enter into market if one is silly enough to put up region wide buy orders for it at any reasonable prices).
Empire research tower consumes something approx 75 000 units of HW (100% cpu load) while 0.0 sov claiming towers usually consume 75 000 LO (100% powergrid) per month. 1 mil of the stuff will last the tower for approx a year (13 months) so if the guy got 200 mil units of it approx then he will have approx 200 posyears worth of it (mostly propably in various low sec stations where dormant supplies accumulated after the introduction of roquals sit).
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Lord Fitz
Antares Fleet Yards
SMASH Alliance
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Posted - 2008.04.30 14:44:00 -
[33]
Originally by: Letrange
it's actually the item high sec research POSes need the most of in ratio to the other ice products. So it's usually: have the alliance mine what they can and buy extra heavy water off the market.
Empire ice produces twice as much heavy water as liquid ozone, most POS's are going to have at least 50% of their powergrid used, while only the research/reaction POS's will have all their CPU used. Even then most people leave all their guns etc online just in case. So it's going to be 100% grid vs x% cpu, and all the local farmer/macroers will be pulling in 2x as much heavy water as needed. In 0.0, you get more Liquid Ozone from the some of the non-racial ices (Dark Glitter etc) but there it is almost always used 100% powergrid, and extra LO for jump bridges and cyno generators.
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Letrange
Minmatar
Chaosstorm Corporation
Apoapsis Multiversal Consortium
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Posted - 2008.04.30 18:33:00 -
[34]
Originally by: Lord Fitz
Originally by: Letrange
it's actually the item high sec research POSes need the most of in ratio to the other ice products. So it's usually: have the alliance mine what they can and buy extra heavy water off the market.
Empire ice produces twice as much heavy water as liquid ozone, most POS's are going to have at least 50% of their powergrid used, while only the research/reaction POS's will have all their CPU used. Even then most people leave all their guns etc online just in case. So it's going to be 100% grid vs x% cpu, and all the local farmer/macroers will be pulling in 2x as much heavy water as needed. In 0.0, you get more Liquid Ozone from the some of the non-racial ices (Dark Glitter etc) but there it is almost always used 100% powergrid, and extra LO for jump bridges and cyno generators.
True, but the manipulation happened in empire, so it's the high sec market that you need to take into account. Your typical high sec research pos may have guns anchored but rarely online them so they don't count for the usual fuel calculations, but when I was doing the calculations on the daily blocks of ice equivalent for my small POS - it worked out to 8 blocks of ice of isotopes, 8 blocks of ice for LO and 15 blocks of ice of HW to fuel my tower for a day (when I did these calculations I was trying to figure out exactly how much ice mining capacity the corp was going to need). You'll note that you need almost twice as much heavy water in ratio to the other two. So you can mine enough ice to cover the HW and sell the extra HI and LO. If our manipulator did these calculations eh probably went "This is crazy" and tried to manipulate the market to what he envisioned as it's natural balance point. Loosing track of the fact that most of the ice mined in empire does not go to empire poses - it goes to low sec poses and capital ships.
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Daerkannon Shimmerscale
Paxton Industries
Paxton Federation
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Posted - 2008.05.07 14:26:00 -
[35]
I'm digging this back up because I think the manipulator was successful. In the last few days not only hasn't the price dropped any more, but it's actually gone up a bit. Heavy water seems to be (for the moment) stable at over 2.5x the previous stable price level.
As an interesting side effect, this is putting a lot of downward pressure on liquid ozone too.
---
Honest officer, the dwarf was on fire when I got here!
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Kwint Sommer
Lothian Quay Industries
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Posted - 2008.05.07 15:58:00 -
[36]
Originally by: Daerkannon Shimmerscale
I'm digging this back up because I think the manipulator was successful. In the last few days not only hasn't the price dropped any more, but it's actually gone up a bit. Heavy water seems to be (for the moment) stable at over 2.5x the previous stable price level.
As an interesting side effect, this is putting a lot of downward pressure on liquid ozone too.
He's only successful if he can sell the stock he initially acquired at this high price and thus far there's no way he has. Prices will have to stay where they are for a while longer before this can be called a success.
Purchasing and Shipping Moon Minerals |
Carniflex
Caldari
Fallout Research
Fallout Project
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Posted - 2008.05.08 13:20:00 -
[37]
Well, in theory one could maintain that price level in trade hubs, as long as his buy orders do not reach low sec space and price difference is small enough so it's not worth doing the freighter runs between nearby low sec and local trade hub.
As soon as buy orders reach low sec they attract a lot of 'idle' heavy water just rotting in low sec stations from compressed dark glitter refines.
Maintaining the price level is one thing and making profit in the process entirely another tho. HW consumption rate is quite finite and having to buy up a lot of it to force price up and keep it there is gamble, at best or stupid at worst. That is unless one just wants to get half a billion units of HW for whatever reasons imaginable.
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Kazuo Ishiguro
House of Marbles
Zzz
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Posted - 2008.05.11 08:26:00 -
[38]
Tinfoil hat time: could this possibly have anything to do with the new types of stargate recently seen in a certain demo video? Perhaps someone is gambling that heavy water will be required to activate them?
My research services
Spreadsheets: Top speed calculation - Halo Implant stats |
Marcus Tedric
Gallente
Tedric Enterprises
The Star League
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Posted - 2008.05.11 08:41:00 -
[39]
Originally by: Kazuo Ishiguro
Tinfoil hat time: could this possibly have anything to do with the new types of stargate recently seen in a certain demo video? Perhaps someone is gambling that heavy water will be required to activate them?
I'll give you a more likely one.....
One word....
Orca 
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Ortos
Abyssus Incendia
THORN Alliance
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Posted - 2008.05.11 15:21:00 -
[40]
Originally by: Kazuo Ishiguro
Tinfoil hat time: could this possibly have anything to do with the new types of stargate recently seen in a certain demo video? Perhaps someone is gambling that heavy water will be required to activate them?
If he was gambling he'd buy out everything he could get cheap and pressure the market at launch.
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