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Kwint Sommer Lothian Quay Industries	Posted - 2008.04.25 00:57:00 - [1] Lowest Jita sell, 129 Highest Regional buy with a decent volume, 70 I sold all but 100k units earlier in the week. Anyways, what are people's opinions of this manipulation attempt? I have some doubts about the extent to which they can manipulate a commodity that is so widely mined. It will be interesting.... Purchasing and Shipping Moon Minerals
Petyr Baelich Taggart Transdimensional Virtue of Selfishness	Posted - 2008.04.25 01:21:00 - [2] Originally by: Kwint Sommer Lowest Jita sell, 129 Highest Regional buy with a decent volume, 70 I sold all but 100k units earlier in the week. Anyways, what are people's opinions of this manipulation attempt? I have some doubts about the extent to which they can manipulate a commodity that is so widely mined. It will be interesting.... Definitely small window of opportunity, in fact the price has dropped quite a bit since the manipulation began 5 hours or so ago. Fairly massive manipulation though as it's affecting several regions right now and is not confined simply to The Forge. Say 18 more hours? Tops. Enjoying it while it lasts.
Kwint Sommer Lothian Quay Industries	Posted - 2008.04.25 02:30:00 - [3] So I got my hands on a freighter full of heavy water for not much above the old price. I have a vested interest in dropping prices so I'm going to dump it on the market a decent bit below the current sell prices in Jita. Too low and it will just get bought by the manipulators and have no affect. I could force them to drop 1% at a time but then it won't get sold and I do want to turn a decent profit off of this. So, what do people think is the magic number? 90? 80? 100? Purchasing and Shipping Moon Minerals
Petyr Baelich Taggart Transdimensional Virtue of Selfishness	Posted - 2008.04.25 02:47:00 - [4] Originally by: Kwint Sommer At what price would you be willing to buy up my entire order so that you may continue your manipulation a little longer and turn it from a success to a failure?
Kwint Sommer Lothian Quay Industries	Posted - 2008.04.25 03:07:00 - [5] If you think this has been a success so far then you seriously fail at math. Don't get me wrong, they may pull it off but look at how much they've actually managed to sell at an inflated price, 1.2m units, and they bought ~110M units at an average of ~40% above the previously going rate. So, at the moment they have to sell off their entire stock at ~40% above the previous going rate just to break even. Given how quickly this stuff can be mind and the number of mining corps that will inevitably make private deals to sell at a heavy discount off the inflated rate, (like the one that sold me this freighter full) I suspect the manipulator will end up having a ton of stock that's exceedingly hard to move at prices much above the break-even point. If he only moves a few percent of his stock in these first hours (and so far he's at ~1%) then these gains will be wiped out as the market crashes back down thanks to aggressive mining and forces him to take a loss on the last bit of his stock. Purchasing and Shipping Moon Minerals
Petyr Baelich Taggart Transdimensional Virtue of Selfishness	Posted - 2008.04.25 03:13:00 - [6] I agree completely, in fact I was very surprised to see the extent of the manipulation as very small manipulations seem to work best on minerals and ice/moon products seem to be a popular choice for these micro-moves. For example... Heavy water has been putting along at 5-8% margins for the last several weeks in aggregate, but there have been times when that can be raised to 12-18% and a decent, (albeit not exceptional on its own) profit can be made. The same tactic can be applied profitably to any of the mid-range volume items. I don't see how the original manipulators are going to make a profit on this issue, especially now that it's "public knowledge". Still waiting for you to drop your order, btw. :)
Arthor Dark Gallente N.A.S.A. Skunk-Works	Posted - 2008.04.25 03:19:00 - [7] Some 30 people reading this thread in the middle of night is hardly 'public knowledge.'
Petyr Baelich Taggart Transdimensional Virtue of Selfishness	Posted - 2008.04.25 03:21:00 - [8] Originally by: Arthor Dark Some 30 people reading this thread in the middle of night is hardly 'public knowledge.' Depends on the 30 people.
Kwint Sommer Lothian Quay Industries	Posted - 2008.04.25 03:25:00 - [9] Originally by: Petyr Baelich Still waiting for you to drop your order, btw. :) Hey, my Fenrir aint the fastest ship in the fleet, especially when autopiloting halfway across high sec and back. I think I'm going to ship a chunk out to my a group of my POS's (it's time for their feeding) and put the remaining 1.75M on the market at 90. If it gets bought up I made a sweet profit for less effort than this thread took and if not everyone drops to match me I'll drop it to 80 and then just accept a buy order at 70. Even at 70 the profit will cover the extra cost of what's ending up in my reactors. Purchasing and Shipping Moon Minerals
Petyr Baelich Taggart Transdimensional Virtue of Selfishness	Posted - 2008.04.25 03:28:00 - [10] Originally by: Kwint Sommer Originally by: Petyr Baelich Still waiting for you to drop your order, btw. :) Hey, my Fenrir aint the fastest ship in the fleet, especially when autopiloting halfway across high sec and back. I think I'm going to ship a chunk out to my a group of my POS's (it's time for their feeding) and put the remaining 1.75M on the market at 90. If it gets bought up I made a sweet profit for less effort than this thread took and if not everyone drops to match me I'll drop it to 80 and then just accept a buy order at 70. Even at 70 the profit will cover the extra cost of what's ending up in my reactors. Better hurry, the 1% game is in full swing.
Kwint Sommer Lothian Quay Industries	Posted - 2008.04.25 03:43:00 - [11] Ha! I got 10 more per unit. Purchasing and Shipping Moon Minerals
Petyr Baelich Taggart Transdimensional Virtue of Selfishness	Posted - 2008.04.25 03:59:00 - [12] Originally by: Kwint Sommer Ha! I got 10 more per unit. Yep. On that order. :) TYPE: PRICE: QUANTITY: Heavy Water 128.89 824,733 Did better on this one. By the look of the new buy orders it looks like we both underestimated the lengths the manipulator will go to in order to sustain his market.
Kwint Sommer Lothian Quay Industries	Posted - 2008.04.25 04:20:00 - [13] Originally by: Petyr Baelich Originally by: Kwint Sommer Ha! I got 10 more per unit. Yep. On that order. :) TYPE: PRICE: QUANTITY: Heavy Water 128.89 824,733 Did better on this one. By the look of the new buy orders it looks like we both underestimated the lengths the manipulator will go to in order to sustain his market. Nice and apparently we both bet too low. Purchasing and Shipping Moon Minerals
SonOfAGhost Minmatar Minmatar Munitions and Tactical Assets Repository Zzz	Posted - 2008.04.25 10:09:00 - [14] Originally by: Kwint Sommer Nice and apparently we both bet too low. Better than betting too high ----- Originally by: kedoremos EVE's economy is **** for CPAs, Annuities, and Stock Brokers.
Carniflex Caldari Fallout Research Fallout Project	Posted - 2008.04.25 16:08:00 - [15] Well. Most people who need it are already sitting at few years pile of it bcos nobody likes to fly around with half empty freighter. So there will be someone sitting on a big pile of it for the rest of his life when this is over. Heawy water has been 'waste' sideproduct of ice mining for past 3-4 years so I doubt that there is any single entity in EVE with enough isk to keep the price manipulation up when all the ice miners sitting on massive piles of it figure out that there is opportunity to get rid of it.
Athre Minmatar The HIgher Standard	Posted - 2008.04.25 19:06:00 - [16] hm, I thought POS in High Sec use heavy water to run... hardly a "waste" byproduct.
Kwint Sommer Lothian Quay Industries	Posted - 2008.04.25 19:49:00 - [17] Originally by: Athre hm, I thought POS in High Sec use heavy water to run... hardly a "waste" byproduct. All POS's use it to run their modules but at its normal price it's worth so little per hour that no one intentionally mines it. They just end up with it as a result of clearing out other stuff. Hence, it's a "waste" byproduct.
Petyr Baelich Taggart Transdimensional Virtue of Selfishness	Posted - 2008.04.26 03:29:00 - [18] Day two now, and he keeps correcting the price. I'd be impressed if I didn't think the action futile. This guy's going to end up with a ton of water on his hands.
Segge Bolled Caldari Dirty Sexy Pilots New Age Solutions Amalgamated	Posted - 2008.04.26 05:31:00 - [19] Originally by: Petyr Baelich This guy's going to end up with a ton of water on his hands. Well it is heavy water, after all.
Shar Tegral	Posted - 2008.04.26 09:15:00 - [20] Originally by: Petyr Baelich Day two now, and he keeps correcting the price. I'd be impressed if I didn't think the action futile. This guy's going to end up with a ton of water on his hands. The irony of this is: If he manipulates the market properly he may wind up in a position where any left over product is paid for from the manipulation. Perhaps he wants to wind up with alot of heavy water. I.e. almost 2 years ago I purchased up several million units of heavy water at dirt cheap. My heavy water needs have been met, and will be for another year or so, from that purchase. If I could've manipulated the market to have that purchase isk neutral I would have. I just think it is always important that in reviewing someone else's activities, in how they affect you, never think that the game you play or would play is the one that they are playing... at all. To Shar -verb: 1 - To say what you mean. 2 - To say what it means. 3 - To say something mean.
Petyr Baelich Taggart Transdimensional Virtue of Selfishness	Posted - 2008.04.26 12:13:00 - [21] Originally by: Shar Tegral The irony of this is: If he manipulates the market properly he may wind up in a position where any left over product is paid for from the manipulation. Perhaps he wants to wind up with alot of heavy water. I.e. almost 2 years ago I purchased up several million units of heavy water at dirt cheap. My heavy water needs have been met, and will be for another year or so, from that purchase. If I could've manipulated the market to have that purchase isk neutral I would have. I just think it is always important that in reviewing someone else's activities, in how they affect you, never think that the game you play or would play is the one that they are playing... at all. Shar, we're not talking about several million, or even tens of millions of units. That would be inline with daily volumes and fit my criterion of a manipulation with a good chance of success. I'm typically trading between 1 and 3 million units of heavy water a day, for example and that's in the 2-4 hours that make up my typical play session. This guy has bought up more than 200 million units, and has sold at best 15-20m. If he can somehow extend this to make a profit, I think that's awesome. But he's working against market forces, and sooner or later he will be drowned by supply.
Shar Tegral	Posted - 2008.04.26 12:24:00 - [22] Originally by: Petyr Baelich But he's working against market forces, and sooner or later he will be drowned by supply. I was just offering a small example to avoid any derailments based on "egoism". But your own conclusion supports my statement. There is a reason that this is being done. It is being done systematically as well. This could possibly be a bad move on someone's part but that is on the low end of probability. So, it begs the question from those of us looking in, from outside, is: "WTF?" Which brings us to the final point... this person is doing something. Just because it does not make sense to us does not mean it does not make sense though. I'd be delighted to know though it is undoubtedly wise for none of us to know anytime soon. Originally by: Petyr Baelich I'd be impressed if I didn't think the action futile. Basically I was just responding to this: when someone puts a lot of resources into something that you don't understand, they are not playing the same game as you. To Shar -verb: 1 - To say what you mean. 2 - To say what it means. 3 - To say something mean.
Daerkannon Shimmerscale Paxton Industries Paxton Federation	Posted - 2008.04.26 14:16:00 - [23] Consider this: this person could have been stockpiling massive quantities of heavy water at 'normal' prices for weeks or even months now in preparation for this. If you exert as much pressure on the market as he is for long enough, it starts to build momentum. Other manipulators jump in on the buy orders, helping to suck up the supply that would push prices down faster. People start to need supplies at any price. Eventually the market starts to move again. Now while I agree ultimately that prices will correct themselves to historical levels, in the meantime he may just generate enough market momentum to keep the mean price high enough to generate massive profits off of his existing supply of low cost heavy water. How hard would it be, after all, to maintain a price level of 50 isk/unit for a couple of weeks before the market fully corrects? --- Honest officer, the dwarf was on fire when I got here! Can't find a mechanical engineering agent? Need a non-Caldari Navy agent? http://www.eve-agents.com/ for all your agent needs!
Sophie Daigneau Risky Advanced Production Enterprises GoonSwarm	Posted - 2008.04.26 15:01:00 - [24] Has anyone considered the possibility that this is a hedge against a possible change to heavy water in an upcoming patch?
Macdeth Ephemeral Misgivings	Posted - 2008.04.26 19:47:00 - [25] Originally by: Shar Tegral Basically I was just responding to this: when someone puts a lot of resources into something that you don't understand, they are not playing the same game as you. I've actually considered doing this to heavy water before, suspect it can be sustained for weeks or months if the person cares to, but odds are they're just hoping for other would-be manipulators to put up high buy orders and dumping to them. Worst case, they're out a few billion what with heavy water being so cheap. Easier to just play the bid/ask spread though unless you want to be able to point at the market history charts and say 'Look what I did!'. It's too much work to mine & transport great enough volumes to break it outright, for the people rich enough to do so, if it was even in their interest, unless by fluke chance someone already had a stockpile of a few hundred million units in a major hub... And heavy water is still such a minor share of starbase fuel cost that people will suck it up and pay it if it lasts more than a few days. Let's (not so arbitrarily) say I consume 25m units of heavy water a month, or roughly 3% of Jita's trade volume, though I don't source anywhere near all of it from there. Instead of this costing me under 1b, it costs me 2-3b. Who cares? That's lost in the noise of week to week isotope variation.
Petyr Baelich Taggart Transdimensional Virtue of Selfishness	Posted - 2008.04.26 21:41:00 - [26] Shar, if he can somehow make money out of this, he'll have my profound respect and I'd say he was a far far better trader than I. I don't see that happening, though, I really don't. He's buying almost 3x the "normal" daily volume in order to sustain this. As it stands now he needs a month to sell off what he has bought already, and that's without any more manipulations on his part. He's buying much more than he can sell, and he's doing it every day. Is it a ton of money? No, not really, maybe 3-5Bn so far... but that's still 3-5Bn.
Kazzac Elentria	Posted - 2008.04.27 15:31:00 - [27] Sometimes taking a small loss in forge is enough to move the market elsewhere and ride those waves to generate profit. ...and that's all I'll say on that one
Feronia Gallente Magma Industries	Posted - 2008.04.28 12:50:00 - [28] It looks like he gave up. He changed his region-wide buy orders from 140 to 30 Isk. Lets see how long it takes before the supply side will follow. My guess is he bought about 200 mill units Heavy Water in the last few days. About 100 mill units at start, average price of 44 Isk. The other half with buy orders between 100-140 Isk. Looking at his sell orders, I think his initial plan was to raise the price to 300 Isk.
Letrange Minmatar Chaosstorm Corporation Apoapsis Multiversal Consortium	Posted - 2008.04.28 15:09:00 - [29] Ah, this explains things. Was a bit surprised since the manipulation happened just as I was buying the extra heavy water I need for my POSes. Although it's normally considered a waste product it's actually the item high sec research POSes need the most of in ratio to the other ice products. So it's usually: have the alliance mine what they can and buy extra heavy water off the market. Obviously there aren't enough high sec research POSes to counterbalance the demands of capital ship movement (which the other two ice products from standard ice go into).
Kazuo Ishiguro House of Marbles Zzz	Posted - 2008.04.28 15:10:00 - [30] I'm pleased to report that my POS, doubtless along with many others, had enough fuel to ride out the whole affair unaffected. I'd like to thank CCP for increasing the fuel bay size last year, and significantly reducing my exposure to market turbulence. My research services Spreadsheets: Top speed calculation - Halo Implant stats

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