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Liang Nuren
Parsec Flux
1072
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Posted - 2012.03.16 19:20:00 -
[31] - Quote
Liberty Eternal wrote:Andrea Griffin wrote:For those of us who are less versed in economic matters, what I take away from this is that there is inflation and that I should stick all of my liquid isk into goods instead. C/D? No, there are two types of inflation. One is monetary inflation, where the amount of money [isk] increases. The other is price inflation, where the price of goods increases. The article points to the fact that money supply has increased massively [thirteenfold] while prices have not increased. They have in fact declined a little - although recently prices have started to increase, it is only by single-digit percentage points [compared to the 1,300% increase in money supply]. However, without actual data it is hard to judge what is really going on or to make predictions about price movements in the future. The short-term price trend is slightly upwards, but the overall long-term pressure has always been downwards. So unless there is a fundamental change in game mechanics, don't go putting all your isk into real goods just yet. But do be alert to a possible change in game mechanics which might cause huge amounts of isk to bum-rush into the system and drive up prices.
It seems like he said that ISK that is just made but sits there isn't all that terribly interesting to the economy. What matters is the ISK that's actually used - which is why he went into such laboring over the velocity. Basically: the more people use their accumulated wealth, the higher the price inflation is going to go.
I've been doing some thinking, and it seems to me that a large part of the recent price inflation may be the result of people getting back into the market after resubbing in Crucible after ragequitting in Incarna. The thing about it is that that I would normally expect that to be a temporary price increase, but the amount of available currency may mean that it is more permanent ... its not like anyone has any trouble paying for stuff as it is.
I'm also very curious what amount of that ISK supply just sits in market escrow.
-Liang Normally on 5:00 -> 9-10:00 Eve (Aus TZ?) Blog: http://liangnuren.wordpress.com PVP Videos: http://vimeo.com/user9887127 Twitter: http://twitter.com/LiangNuren
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Adunh Slavy
Ammatar Trade Syndicate
339
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Posted - 2012.03.16 19:28:00 -
[32] - Quote
Dear CCP, can we get some production and destruction numbers as well?
Such as Total Minerals Mined, can be all minerals lumped together in one big number for all I care. A break down of mins from Loot, drone poo and direct mining would be nice to know too. Total Number of Moon goo units produced, can be all units lumped together as one big number. How many units of planetary P0s were generated. How much salvage, total units droped? How much ice was mined?
How many minerals were destroyed by ships blowing up, how much moon goo was destroyed, how much PI materials in terms of P-0s were destroyed. How many ships are sitting in Hangars. How much salvage was destroyed. How much Ice was consumed?
The provided indicies only tell part of the picture, is productivity keeping up with population growth and ISK growth? Is destruction keeping up with population growth? How much hording, or perhaps better phrased, "incendental hording" of materials going on.
Changes in ISK movements, of the total ISK supply, on active accounts, what percentage of that ISK is in escrow on the market. Total value of all markets (sell orders), minus the outliers, over time. Total value of all buy orders, over time.
Other interesting numbers would be changes in PVP related Skill points to industrial skill points. What's the change in ratio over time. Is Industrial SP investment keeping pace with PVP/PVE SP investment.
BPOs from NPCs, is that keeping pace with population growth? How many ships were produced of each class, how is that moving and the ratio of the types over time.
The big question being asked by these numbers is, is productivity keeping pace with population and money supply? Indicies hint that it is, but is it true? Or is something else going on. |

Darth Gustav
Sons Of 0din Fatal Ascension
148
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Posted - 2012.03.16 19:40:00 -
[33] - Quote
Any chance we can get data mining on ISK injection per capita?
Meaningless tripe about bounties is totally misleading and was deliberately phrased as such.
If considerably less than 25% of the population is running incursions, then this is obviously broken.
Stating anything to the contrary is obviously and utterly laughable. He who trolls trolls best when he who is trolled trolls the troller. -Darth Gustav's Axiom |

Ryunosuke Kusanagi
24
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Posted - 2012.03.16 19:41:00 -
[34] - Quote
I feel the need to weigh in here
Okay is there a problem with inflation of course
Incursions was released Nov. 2010, which correlates with the small dip in the end of the graph.
Population until Q2 2010 (pulled from Omnis Arcanum of EVE blog) (note I do not know if this is pure tranquility, or taking into account Serenity as well
as of 1900 EVE time 16March2012 there are 40,000 accounts logged onto Tranquility. I don't however know the population distribution of eve Null, Low, high sec. Perhaps Diagoras can provide details
Mission rewards paid out in Feb: 2,470,815,985,076 ISK. Mission bonuses: 2,346,410,541,970 ISK. -- John "Diagoras" Turbefield, Twitter, 2Mar2012, 0100 EVE tim
ISK earnt from NPC bounties in Feb: 32,083,329,999,805 ISK -- Diagoras, 2Mar2012, 2130
8,566,015,400,900 ISK paid out in Incursion rewards in February. --- Diagoras 3Mar2012, 153
So by those numbers alone, yes, there is a lot coming in from bounties, again, I do not know the distribution of those numbers across Hi/Low/Null sec.
Now, here is a problem, with the latest (?) data dump of Sisi(?) there was something that caught my eye, and yes it's relevant. Rogue Drone bounties. The smart, logical way to take this, is that they are removing the alloys and adding bounties to rogue drones. BUT... with this discussion, I think it is actually the reverse that is supposed to happen, Add loot drops, and lower bounties, not add to them. OFC add higher level drops the lower one goes security system wise, you still want to incentivise going into low-null sec, or else you risk overpopulating High sec, and abandoning null. Pastebin in question
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VaMei
Meafi Corp
98
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Posted - 2012.03.16 19:53:00 -
[35] - Quote
When it comes to measuring inflation, the data I'd really like to see is trends for elite modules and bottleneck moongoo.
Player activity (and bot activity) will greatly impact the supply of minerals, Ice, PI, LP goods, low-end moongoo, and T3 materials; but the supply side of tech & officer mods is pretty much fixed, meaning that long term changes in those prices is real money chasing scarce commodities. |

Zircon Dasher
Zirconia Trade Group
82
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Posted - 2012.03.16 20:02:00 -
[36] - Quote
Since folks are asking for more info I figured I would place my request for the Fanfest presentation:
1) Breakdown of faucet and sink activity by security (high/low/null/WH) 2) Faucets and sinks by activity over the past 12 months 3) Demographic breakouts by faucet and sinks
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JitaPriceChecker2
State War Academy Caldari State
56
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Posted - 2012.03.16 20:10:00 -
[37] - Quote
Murashu wrote:I'd love to see how many pilots were involved in earning the 9 trillion ISK (incursions) compared to the 33 trillion isk (bounties). Posting how much ISK the two activities brought in without the other info is just showing a small part of the story.
This again for CCP to read |

Zircon Dasher
Zirconia Trade Group
82
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Posted - 2012.03.16 20:10:00 -
[38] - Quote
Darth Gustav wrote: If considerably less than 25% of the population is running incursions, then this is obviously broken.
Stating anything to the contrary is obviously and utterly laughable.
So if considerably less than 25% of the population is farming wormholes, then, wormholes are obviously more broken than incursions. Since Blue Lewt contributed about 10.4T isk in Feb compared to the 8.6T from incursions (not just highsec incursions). |

JitaPriceChecker2
State War Academy Caldari State
56
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Posted - 2012.03.16 20:12:00 -
[39] - Quote
Zircon Dasher wrote:Darth Gustav wrote: If considerably less than 25% of the population is running incursions, then this is obviously broken.
Stating anything to the contrary is obviously and utterly laughable. So if considerably less than 25% of the population is farming wormholes, then, wormholes are obviously more broken than incursions. Since Blue Lewt contributed about 10.4T isk in Feb compared to the 8.6T from incursions (not just highsec incursions).
Last time i checked there is no concord in wormholes. |

Zircon Dasher
Zirconia Trade Group
82
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Posted - 2012.03.16 20:19:00 -
[40] - Quote
JitaPriceChecker2 wrote:Last time i checked there is no concord in wormholes.
Last time I checked concord did not protect anyone.
Its cool though.
Nobody wants thier little piece of the pie decreased. Better to make the other guy's piece look tastier. |
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Jackie Fisher
Syrkos Technologies Joint Venture Conglomerate
47
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Posted - 2012.03.16 20:21:00 -
[41] - Quote
Zircon Dasher wrote:Darth Gustav wrote: If considerably less than 25% of the population is running incursions, then this is obviously broken.
Stating anything to the contrary is obviously and utterly laughable. So if considerably less than 25% of the population is farming wormholes, then, wormholes are obviously more broken than incursions. Since Blue Lewt contributed about 10.4T isk in Feb compared to the 8.6T from incursions (not just highsec incursions). From twitter on 29th Feb: John Turbefield GÇÅ @CCP_Diagoras Locations of active chars with more than 5m SP just after midnight: High Sec 66.00%, Low sec 7.37%, Null sec 20.73%, Wormhole Space 5.89% |

Murashu
Phoibe Enterprises
25
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Posted - 2012.03.16 20:26:00 -
[42] - Quote
Zircon Dasher wrote:Darth Gustav wrote: If considerably less than 25% of the population is running incursions, then this is obviously broken.
Stating anything to the contrary is obviously and utterly laughable. So if considerably less than 25% of the population is farming wormholes, then, wormholes are obviously more broken than incursions. Since Blue Lewt contributed about 10.4T isk in Feb compared to the 8.6T from incursions (not just highsec incursions). I think you are talking apples to oranges if you compare the continuous risk of being killed by other players in wormhole space and the logistics involved in moving blue loot back to empire to sell to the safety of running highsec incursions and getting instant bounty rewards. |

Darth Gustav
Sons Of 0din Fatal Ascension
150
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Posted - 2012.03.16 20:29:00 -
[43] - Quote
Jackie Fisher wrote:Zircon Dasher wrote:Darth Gustav wrote: If considerably less than 25% of the population is running incursions, then this is obviously broken.
Stating anything to the contrary is obviously and utterly laughable. So if considerably less than 25% of the population is farming wormholes, then, wormholes are obviously more broken than incursions. Since Blue Lewt contributed about 10.4T isk in Feb compared to the 8.6T from incursions (not just highsec incursions). From twitter on 29th Feb: John Turbefield GÇÅ @CCP_Diagoras Locations of active chars with more than 5m SP just after midnight: High Sec 66.00%, Low sec 7.37%, Null sec 20.73%, Wormhole Space 5.89%
I guess that answers your question then. He who trolls trolls best when he who is trolled trolls the troller. -Darth Gustav's Axiom |

Aineko Macx
Royal Amarr Institute Amarr Empire
145
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Posted - 2012.03.16 20:48:00 -
[44] - Quote
Since CCP seems unwilling to consider dynamic faucets, we'll have to live with occasional nerfs (and unintended buffs)... |

Zircon Dasher
Zirconia Trade Group
82
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Posted - 2012.03.16 21:05:00 -
[45] - Quote
Murashu wrote: I think you are talking apples to oranges if you compare the continuous risk of being killed by other players in wormhole space and the logistics involved in moving blue loot back to empire to sell to the safety of running highsec incursions and getting instant bounty rewards.
A true evaluation of risk does not stop at the mere possibility of loss. It calculates the probability, the extent of damages, etc. If the probability of loss is low, due to intel or a lack of population to name a few examples, then there is less overall risk.
In any event, if one is concerned about inflation stemming from money supply these things do not mean much. One should be much more concerned about the overall influx/sink of isk from various activites. I, personally, am glad that CCP is looking at the broad range of faucets if they are truely concerned about inflation from ISK. So far no CCP employee has given an indication that they are, but..... guess we have to wait till fanfest. |

Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
5632
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Posted - 2012.03.16 21:09:00 -
[46] - Quote
The Snowman wrote:FFUuuuuuuuuuuu people who claim incursions cause inflation hahaha....
In the end it was actually 0.0 carebears running anomolies that was causing inflation. Nope. GÇ£If you're not willing to fight for what you have in GëívGëí you don't deserve it, and you will lose it.GÇ¥
Find more rants over at Tippis' Rants. |

MacLuven
EL Bernays School of Strategic Communication
9
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Posted - 2012.03.16 21:24:00 -
[47] - Quote
Liang Nuren wrote:It seems like he said that ISK that is just made but sits there isn't all that terribly interesting to the economy. What matters is the ISK that's actually used - which is why he went into such laboring over the velocity. Basically: the more people use their accumulated wealth, the higher the price inflation is going to go.
Enough also has to be spent to alter the balance in supply and demand and lower the inventory of the products being purchased that there's upward pressure on the price of the product (and it's components' cost). Just spending it isn't enough.
Here are the key sentences from the DevBlog for other readers who may not have been quite following what you were getting at:
CCPRecurve wrote:ItGÇÿs also important to note that money supply and the velocity of money are far from being the only things that affect inflation. Supply side changes can have a big impact on prices.
The big things that keep us from jumping off the side of Inflation Mountain are, 1) we have a single currency in a common market, 2) we have a tremendous capacity in our manufacturing base, 3) people have gobs of inventory. This makes our economy extremely resilient to the influx of money supply and it's influence on inflation.
Quote:I've been doing some thinking, and it seems to me that a large part of the recent price inflation may be the result of people getting back into the market after resubbing in Crucible after ragequitting in Incarna. The thing about it is that that I would normally expect that to be a temporary price increase, but the amount of available currency may mean that it is more permanent ... its not like anyone has any trouble paying for stuff as it is.
We already know the game population went from 340k in December to 352.5 in March (MMOData.net). So, yes, it's fair to say that a bunch of those 12,500 people went shopping.
Prices are stubborn. I would suggest there are three reasons for this, 1) market manipulators are able to keep a prices up for a spell, 2) suppliers take time to get enough inventory back into the market to drown out the effects of the price manipulators, 3) the CPI is sticky up to tech 2 prices -- most people don't melt down tech2 (and tech3 for that matter) mods and ships to recover components for sale in the market. So the more the CPI price is determined by Tech2 and tech3, the stickier it will be.
Tech1, however, goes up and down with the mineral market like a girl ... err ... like a girl on a pogo stick. |

Nair Alderau
EVE University Ivy League
2
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Posted - 2012.03.16 21:46:00 -
[48] - Quote
Sentient Blade wrote:
Inflation is positive if it's kept a certain rate; if it goes too low then the market stalls as people wait for products to become cheaper, hence things don't sell, people don't get paid, bad times.
That (your "too low" inflation) is a description of the effects of deflation, which is indeed very bad.
No risk of that right now. The rest of your post is correct, but I dont think we are even close to hyper-inflation right now.
I am not very fond of the current inflation rates, but its still on the managable side. |

Nair Alderau
EVE University Ivy League
2
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Posted - 2012.03.16 21:47:00 -
[49] - Quote
Gilbaron wrote:To what extend can those increased prices be explained by the following factors:
Increased demand for maelstrom, Drakes, 1400mm guns, heavy missile launchers and maybe abbadons, lazers and tier 3 battlecruisers?
Plex prices?
Zydrine speculation?
None of the above. Which is quite easy to prove.
The first group is downright ... strange. Prices for T1 and T2 items are set by raw material prices, not demand (or only for a very short time period). |

Jada Maroo
Mysterium Astrometrics Bringers of Death.
603
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Posted - 2012.03.16 21:57:00 -
[50] - Quote
Tippia wrote:The Snowman wrote:FFUuuuuuuuuuuu people who claim incursions cause inflation hahaha....
In the end it was actually 0.0 carebears running anomolies that was causing inflation. Nope.
Right on! Stick with your assertion no matter what! What does CCP know anyway!  |
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Chokichi Ozuwara
Lucky Dragon Convenience
22
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Posted - 2012.03.16 22:07:00 -
[51] - Quote
Sentient Blade wrote:Inflation is positive if it's kept a certain rate; if it goes too low then the market stalls as people wait for products to become cheaper, hence things don't sell, people don't get paid, bad times. This is an economic fallacy, and history doesn't bear this out. Bad news for you, Keynes is dead.
Start a corp and do it yourself. You'll fail, but you'll enjoy failing. Tears will be shed and pants will need to be changed all round. |

Chokichi Ozuwara
Lucky Dragon Convenience
22
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Posted - 2012.03.16 22:08:00 -
[52] - Quote
Liberty Eternal wrote:No, there are two types of inflation. One is monetary inflation, where the amount of money [isk] increases. The other is price inflation, where the price of goods increases. Finally an intelligent post.
Start a corp and do it yourself. You'll fail, but you'll enjoy failing. Tears will be shed and pants will need to be changed all round. |

Random Womble
Emo Rangers Electric Monkey Overlords
13
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Posted - 2012.03.16 22:39:00 -
[53] - Quote
I would be interested to know what the average per POS export cost of PI goods for fuelling POSs is verses the old per POS cost when PI goods were sold on the market by NPCs. Thereby seeing if the POS based isk sink has increased or decreased following the introduction of PI.
However of concern would be that now with player owned customs offices there is the potential for the isk sink aspect to disappear all together and it certainly is likely to diminish to a very small sum.
I meant to say while its been a while since i did incursions so correct me if im wrong but do incursion rats also not have bounties so a small proportion of the rat bounties can surely be tacked effectively on the incursion sum and removed from the bounties one. |

Nair Alderau
EVE University Ivy League
2
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Posted - 2012.03.16 23:32:00 -
[54] - Quote
Chokichi Ozuwara wrote:Sentient Blade wrote:Inflation is positive if it's kept a certain rate; if it goes too low then the market stalls as people wait for products to become cheaper, hence things don't sell, people don't get paid, bad times. This is an economic fallacy, and history doesn't bear this out. Bad news for you, Keynes is dead.
Got your degree in Chicago? *cough* |

Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
5633
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Posted - 2012.03.16 23:37:00 -
[55] - Quote
Jada Maroo wrote:Right on! Stick with your assertion no matter what! What does CCP know anyway!  They know a fair bit, and they're certainly not claiming what The Snowman saysGǪ
No, incursions most certainly cause inflation.
GÇ£If you're not willing to fight for what you have in GëívGëí you don't deserve it, and you will lose it.GÇ¥
Find more rants over at Tippis' Rants. |

Nair Alderau
EVE University Ivy League
2
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Posted - 2012.03.16 23:43:00 -
[56] - Quote
Tippia wrote:Jada Maroo wrote:Right on! Stick with your assertion no matter what! What does CCP know anyway!  They know a fair bit, and they're certainly not claiming what The Snowman saysGǪ No, incursions most certainly cause inflation.
Let's say they were a contributing factor. Some people forget that the Concord LP handed out is actually an ISK sink. I've never seen that number separated from the other LP store sinks, though, so I won't comment on how much it does actually dampen the ISK payout of incursions. Somebody got numbers? (or rough approximations?)
I actually fear the drone region change a tad more now - we don't need more ISK in the system, or at least not much. It's still under control, but I wouldn't mind lowering the ISK rewards of incursions and bumping the LP some. |

glowreef1
Pinky's Cream Pie Boutique
0
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Posted - 2012.03.17 00:07:00 -
[57] - Quote
And then there are things like this going on. This must also be taken into account. Evenews Market manipulation Made my head spin |

Mara Rinn
Cosmic Industrial Complex Cosmic Consortium
1041
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Posted - 2012.03.17 00:11:00 -
[58] - Quote
Nair Alderau wrote:Let's say they were a contributing factor. Some people forget that the Concord LP handed out is actually an ISK sink. I've never seen that number separated from the other LP store sinks, though, so I won't comment on how much it does actually dampen the ISK payout of incursions. Somebody got numbers? (or rough approximations?)
If all LP earned incursions was sunk into the CONCORD LP store, about 80% or so of the ISK rewards would be sunk. The catch is that Incursion ISK flows so freely that it is easier for many people to run another site rather than spend the time travelling to the LP store, picking items up, transporting them to a market hub and listing items for sale.
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Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
5633
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Posted - 2012.03.17 00:21:00 -
[59] - Quote
Nair Alderau wrote:Let's say they were a contributing factor. Some people forget that the Concord LP handed out is actually an ISK sink. I've never seen that number separated from the other LP store sinks, though, so I won't comment on how much it does actually dampen the ISK payout of incursions. Somebody got numbers? (or rough approximations?) Diagoras posted some numbers on the topic a month ago.
During that day, the LP store sunk some 180bn ISK, which I would translate into roughly 200 million LP being cashed in. Incursions paid out a mere 4.7 million LP during that day. GÇ£If you're not willing to fight for what you have in GëívGëí you don't deserve it, and you will lose it.GÇ¥
Find more rants over at Tippis' Rants. |
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CCP Dr.EyjoG
C C P C C P Alliance
4

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Posted - 2012.03.17 00:25:00 -
[60] - Quote
Bienator II wrote:so, did the money supply through bounties change? If not, it does not realy matter if its the largest piece of the pie or not, incursions or something else can still be the cause for the inflation.
Yes, all NPC bounties are a faucet for the EVE economy. All NPC paid rewards are as well, so Incursions do contribute to the problem but the picture is much bigger and is not solve by just "Nerf Incursions". |
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