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khosta
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Posted - 2008.09.02 14:43:00 -
[1]
Could you explain how you make a profit?
Whenever I try make sense of paying this much for a low chance decryptor, I end up with Idiotic Figures instead 
I realise it could make sense when Hulks sold for 500m a pop, but that is now no longer the case. I would be very grateful if this mystery could be explained, as its been bugging me for ages 
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RaTTuS
BIG
Libertas Fidelitas
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Posted - 2008.09.02 15:03:00 -
[2]
possibly for use with BS BPc's or JF ? [not sure if you can get a 9run JF - but @ ME -6 it will be expensive]
--
BIG Lottery, BIG Deal, InEve
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Carniflex
Caldari
StarHunt
Fallout Project
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Posted - 2008.09.02 15:03:00 -
[3]
I'm not in gallente ship invention myself, but could Ishtar make a reasonable profit with those ?
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Jastra
Gallente
Black Thorne Corporation
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Posted - 2008.09.02 15:05:00 -
[4]
I dont see how as you;re still at the mercy of the gods of chance, you could lose a lot of isk real fast inventing cruisers that way, I'd assume JFs and Marauders.
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Lord Fitz
Project Amargosa
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Posted - 2008.09.02 15:07:00 -
[5]
 Originally by: RaTTuS
possibly for use with BS BPc's or JF ? [not sure if you can get a 9run JF - but @ ME -6 it will be expensive]
For a JF it would be the most idiotic thing you could do, given that the extra loss in materials would cost far more than an invention job or 5 using another decryptor :o . (And no by default you now will get a 1,2,3,5 or 10 run BPC from a jump freighter as 1 run is max runs, so no 9 run outputs.) Not to mention the decreased chance of success would mean that your BPC cost per run would wind up actually being a fortune in comparison to just having more invention attempts.
I imagine it's the sort of thing people would be using for BS/BC's, though I haven't run the numbers on those myself.
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khosta
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Posted - 2008.09.02 15:20:00 -
[6]
Edited by: khosta on 02/09/2008 15:21:06
For BC and above I think it would be logical to use a decryptor that either increases invention chance, or improves the ME of the invented blueprint, or both, which is usually the case. If this assumption is correct, then Symbiotic Figures is a frigate/cruiser decryptor.
There is no way this decryptor can make sense for frigates, in all cases it would be cheaper to just buy the required frigate from the market.
So the people who do pay 25m+ for this decryptor will be using it for cruisers.
But doing so will on average add about 20m per run to their production costs, unless they get very lucky. If just a little unlucky, they will make no profit at all, or even a loss. And yet the price holds, usually around 30m, but was beginning to drop in Jita last time i was there.
Now that datacores are very cheap, I cant help but wonder if it would be cheaper to use no decryptor at all for gallente cruiser/hulk invention. You would have the bonus of having a t2 bpc with better ME taking this approach.
For the above reasons, its still a mystery to me why people pay 25m+ for this decryptor.
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Shintai
Gallente
Balad Naran Orbital Shipyards
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Posted - 2008.09.02 16:51:00 -
[7]
Decrypters are for Commandship/Marauder/Blackups/Jump Freighters. Nothing else...maybe a HAC if the decrypter is really cheap.
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Abstraction and Transcendence: Nature, Shintai, and Geometry |
Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2008.09.02 17:49:00 -
[8]
Actually, you still end up with a profit for Hulk invention even if Symbiotic would cost closer to 40 mil (compared to no decryptor).
_
SHOPS || Mission rewards revamp || better nanofix
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khosta
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Posted - 2008.09.02 17:53:00 -
[9]
Originally by: Akita T
Actually, you still end up with a profit for Hulk invention even if Symbiotic would cost closer to 40 mil (compared to no decryptor).
Any chance you could present a simplified math justification for this statement? (Remember to bear in mind the +2 ME savings resulting from not using a decryptor)
Thanks.
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Sysion
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Posted - 2008.09.02 18:15:00 -
[10]
There was a contract recently for a 10 run Hulk BPO that was going for ~350mil, and the other day it looked like it sold. Using just EVE-MEEP, with a 25mil Symbiotic Figure and a max run Covetor BPC valued at 7mil, get a cost per success of 255mil. So you're looking at a potential profit of near 95mil.
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Jastra
Gallente
Black Thorne Corporation
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Posted - 2008.09.02 18:20:00 -
[11]
Edited by: Jastra on 02/09/2008 18:20:38
yarg, cant add up....
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2008.09.02 18:24:00 -
[12]
Assuming a 1-run Covetor BPC costs around 3 mil, with the current "highest buy order price" for all needed items (datacores, decryptors, materials), you get a combined average Hulk invention and manufacture price per unit of:
No decryptor - aprox 88 mil (48 build + 40 invent x1 at 20%)
Stolen Formulas - aprox 91 mil (50 build + 41 invent x4 at 36%)
Test Reports - aprox 123 mil (44 build + 79 invent x1 at 24%)
Collision Measurements - aprox 96 mil (42 build + 54 invent x1 at 22%)
Engagement Plan - aprox 99 mil (46 build + 53 invent x2 at 20%)
Symbiotic Figures - aprox 83 mil (52 build + 31 invent x9 at 12%)
_
SHOPS || Mission rewards revamp || better nanofix
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Dr Caymus
Gallente
Applied Technologies Inc
Agents of Fortune
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Posted - 2008.09.02 19:30:00 -
[13]
Originally by: Akita T
EDIT : max-run covetor at 7 mil ? WHOA ! I used 20 mil for that :)
This means the figures above would also be slightly lower if I used, say, only 1 mil per 1-run covetor copy.
With 10-run covetor BPC at 7 mil, you get...
No dec - aprox 108 mil (1-run at 3 mil would be better)
Stolen - aprox 85 mil (better this way)
Test R - aprox 92 mil (still crap)
CollM - aprox 114 mil (crap)
EngP - aprox 88 mil (halfway decent)
Symbiotic - aprox 83 mil (pretty much the same, and still the best of them all)
Akita's cost figures on the Hulk compare similarly to our own internal figures, assuming all manufacturing inputs are purchased at market prices. From there, the profit potential of inventing and manufacturing T2 items starts to get real interesting when you also build some or all of your own intermediate components. For example, you'll save 2 to 3 million in the Hulk's cost per unit by building Covetors rather than buying them. Similar cost savings may be had by building your own construction components.
One additional consideration in selecting a decryptor for the invention process is the PE of the resulting BPC. The Engagement Plan, for example, produces a PE 0 BPC. Hulk construction time is about 1.1 days per unit with this BPC. The Symbiotic produces a PE -3 BPC, extending Hulk construction time to nearly 2 days per unit. This is a critical consideration for large-scale manufacturing operations. Do the math using your own costs and production volume... you might find that your profit over time may be maximized by utilizing a "more expensive" decryptor.
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Hufuff
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Posted - 2008.09.02 19:39:00 -
[14]
Your numbers will change quite a bit if you adjust your percentages for science skills. The rough increase is +5% to invention chance for no decryptors, and is proportionately higher or lower for the decryptor impact. There are several programs on this forum that will estimate those percentages for you. From my invention experience (thousands of attempts), the percentage chance of hulk invention with no decryptors is just a hair under 25%.
Your bpc costs also sound high, I buy for well below 1mm for 1 run copies, and 5mm for max run.
If you rerun your calculations with those numbers you will see that there is no purpose to using decryptors in hulk bpc invention. They all add 10mm or more to the per run bpc cost compared to using no decryptor. |
khosta
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Posted - 2008.09.02 19:48:00 -
[15]
Originally by: Akita T
Edited by: Akita T on 02/09/2008 18:30:23
No decryptor - aprox 88 mil (48 build + 40 invent x1 at 20%)
Symbiotic Figures - aprox 83 mil (52 build + 31 invent x9 at 12%)
Firstly thank you Akita for taking the time to show what i asked for. I have highlighted the two cases i found to be most interesting. If one takes into account the possibility of an unlucky run (very possible at success chance of 12%, maybe even likely) then its fairly clear that using no decryptor is quite a safe bet.
Dont think i'll be taking those risks for so little profit/reward, particularly for ships other than hulks. So its still the case that gallente ship invention is skewed and screwed by the presence of the hulk
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Aragote
Gallente
FinFleet
Band of Brothers
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Posted - 2008.09.02 20:20:00 -
[16]
Originally by: Lord Fitz
(And no by default you now will get a 1,2,3,5 or 10 run BPC from a jump freighter as 1 run is max runs, so no 9 run outputs.)
Not true , ccp removed that. Max run anshar bpc is for example 10 run (if you use the appropriate decryptor since freighter bpc's are always max run's), check the max licensed run part ;) |
Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2008.09.02 20:39:00 -
[17]
Originally by: Aragote
Originally by: Lord Fitz
(And no by default you now will get a 1,2,3,5 or 10 run BPC from a jump freighter as 1 run is max runs, so no 9 run outputs.)
Not true , ccp removed that. Max run anshar bpc is for example 10 run (if you use the appropriate decryptor since freighter bpc's are always max run's), check the max licensed run part ;)
Err, that's eactly what he said.
The max 1 run he's talkig about is the T1 BPC.
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Lord Fitz
Project Amargosa
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Posted - 2008.09.03 02:42:00 -
[18]
Provided you make any profit at all many people will still use Symbiotic Figures over no decryptor as it means they can put on a 10 run BPC to build instead of having to come back reapeatedly and put on single run BPCs. This means that for not alot more effort they make almost 10x the profit, even if it's less profit per hulk.
Also, as long as the belief is there that it's profitable there doesn't need to be an actual profit to affect prices.
Risk becomes irellevant to longer term inventors, ev entually they will be hitting the average so getting longer streaks of failures is not a big concern.
Also I've had to sell 10 run covetor BPCs for as little as 4.5m to get them to sell. You can make more per run by selling single runs, but that involves putting on a copy job every 2.5 days which gets annoying. Not to mention selling alot of BPCs via contracts is very annoying. If I were to invent hulks my BPC cost would be virtually nil because my time taken to sell the BPCs I make myself is pretty much worth about the same as they are anyway, so saving the time makes me more isk.
-ME on the hulk doesn't make nearly as much difference as it does with other ships, as the covetor is a substantial part of the cost and isn't affected by waste.
And yes, what the guy said above is what I said. My point with JF's is that unlike other ships you ALWAYS are using a max run BPC on the input side, as the T1 BPC 1 run = max runs. So you will not get 9 or 4 run outputs from using the +4/+9 decryptors, you will get 10/5 runs. Also with JF's a huge proportion of their cost is the material cost, and their base chance is 30%, so you are best off using a +ME decrytor, +PE decryptor etc.
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khosta
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Posted - 2008.09.03 02:45:00 -
[19]
Akita, I just did a few calculations of my own, that disagree with your invention costs.
16 datacores are required for cruiser class invention (including covetors).
Valuing the datacores at just over 300k which is normal price i get them for, gives us a datacore cost per invention of approx 5m isk. Im going to consider the value of a 1 run bpc to be practically zero just for simplification.
So at 20% chance with no decryptor we have 5x5m = 25m per run
At 12% chance, we require just over 8 attempts, so erm, thats 9 really, especially if factoring in some bad luck.
(9x5m + 9x25m) / 9 = 30m per run
The no decryptor case has better ME, resulting in slightly better build cost too, which you correctly show.
Are you valuing datacores at 500k each?
What is enlightening, is that with datacores at 500k each, the decryptor just about makes sense as long as you are in it for the long haul to compensate for any bad luck runs. But when datacores hit 300k each, using no decryptor makes more sense, being cheaper total build cost and significantly less risk.
Regardless im thankful for your input as it shows that for my purposes, the decryptor doesnt make sense. I always tend to get slightly less than expected success rates over time, which would tip the balance (hence using a 9x multiplier rather than 8.33).
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Lord Fitz
Project Amargosa
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Posted - 2008.09.03 02:58:00 -
[20]
Edited by: Lord Fitz on 03/09/2008 02:59:04
Originally by: khosta
Akita, I just did a few calculations of my own, that disagree with your invention costs.
16 datacores are required for cruiser class invention (including covetors).
Valuing the datacores at just over 300k which is normal price i get them for, gives us a datacore cost per invention of approx 5m isk. Im going to consider the value of a 1 run bpc to be practically zero just for simplification.
So at 20% chance with no decryptor we have 5x5m = 25m per run
At 12% chance, we require just over 8 attempts, so erm, thats 9 really, especially if factoring in some bad luck.
(9x5m + 9x25m) / 9 = 30m per run
The no decryptor case has better ME, resulting in slightly better build cost too, which you correctly show.
Are you valuing datacores at 500k each?
What is enlightening, is that with datacores at 500k each, the decryptor just about makes sense as long as you are in it for the long haul to compensate for any bad luck runs. But when datacores hit 300k each, using no decryptor makes more sense, being cheaper total build cost and significantly less risk.
Regardless im thankful for your input as it shows that for my purposes, the decryptor doesnt make sense. I always tend to get slightly less than expected success rates over time, which would tip the balance (hence using a 9x multiplier rather than 8.33).
On the other hand, (5m+25m)/.12 = 250m = 25m per run. Which is about the same, and although less profit per run, will still make a profit, and a single 10 run BPC takes alot less time to put than 10x1 run BPCs. Alot of people doing this are not going to put on a new build job every day. The PE modifier is also going to build faster which will mean more profit per slot hour even if it's less profit per hulk.
BCs then for example, 10m+25m/.12 = 292m = 30m per run say, but with no decrpytor would be 50m/run.
Obviously again, figures slightly different with skills etc, but again the same applies, a 10 run BPC is a single job, 10 x 1 run BPCs is 10 jobs and 10x the work. If you don't have any capital limitations then % profit is not as important as profit per amount of effort you put in. In the case of BC's it already looks like you make both more profit per run and put in less effort.
BS's 37.5m / run with Symbiotic Figures, 100m without decryptor, etc. Although really you have to compare to the max chance BPC also. And for BS's there is a much more real cost for BPCs as they do sell alot better, for JFs the BPC cost is very very relevant as they take a month to produce etc.
Obviously my above figures are not supposed to be 'perfect' they're simply illustrating some things.
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2008.09.03 08:59:00 -
[21]
Edited by: Akita T on 03/09/2008 09:05:27
Originally by: khosta
Im going to consider the value of a 1 run bpc to be practically zero just for simplification.
Originally by: Akita T
Assuming a 1-run Covetor BPC costs around 3 mil
Of course we'd get hugely different results like that...
You can't just say BPC cost is zero, not even for 1-run frigate BPCs.
Yes, you can say it's quite low, but then you have to also figure that in.
Best case scenario, you are lucky and are churning out BPCs from a NPC copy slot out of a BPC you'll be reselling later at the same price you bought... but even so, there's slot costs to be considered, and capital (2 bil) tied up in the BPO.
If you're not using NPC slots, you have to figure in fuel costs for the POS too.
And if you don't plan to sell the BPO later, you need to recover the cost of the BPO through copying and/or manufacture, or else you've bought it for nothing.
Either way, NOT setting a cost for your BPC is just you shooting yourself in the foot.
_
SHOPS || Mission rewards revamp || better nanofix
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Oli Robbo
Gallente
Galactic Defence Syndicate
Axiom Empire
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Posted - 2008.09.03 10:39:00 -
[22]
Sorry call me a noob, but i thought you needed max run bpc's to invent from?
I've just started invention into gallente ships for myself and would you say it's worthwhile? [buying in the materials - i have the bpo's to make coppies from etc].
thanks in advance.
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Shintai
Gallente
Balad Naran Orbital Shipyards
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Posted - 2008.09.03 11:27:00 -
[23]
Originally by: Oli Robbo
Sorry call me a noob, but i thought you needed max run bpc's to invent from?
I've just started invention into gallente ships for myself and would you say it's worthwhile? [buying in the materials - i have the bpo's to make coppies from etc].
thanks in advance.
Only if you use multi run decrypters. Or inventing modules. All ships without decrypters just need 1 run BPCs.
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Abstraction and Transcendence: Nature, Shintai, and Geometry |
Aragote
Gallente
FinFleet
Band of Brothers
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Posted - 2008.09.03 14:23:00 -
[24]
Ups sorry i missread your post Lord Fitz.
/me starts learning reading comprehension
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Oli Robbo
Gallente
Galactic Defence Syndicate
Axiom Empire
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Posted - 2008.09.03 14:31:00 -
[25]
Originally by: Shintai
Originally by: Oli Robbo
Sorry call me a noob, but i thought you needed max run bpc's to invent from?
I've just started invention into gallente ships for myself and would you say it's worthwhile? [buying in the materials - i have the bpo's to make coppies from etc].
thanks in advance.
Only if you use multi run decrypters. Or inventing modules. All ships without decrypters just need 1 run BPCs.
ok, so i just did my first invention job on a maxed run vexor bpc, and ended up with a one run ishtar bpc, i didn't use any decryptors or anything, so i could have infact got away with using just a 1 run vexor bpc?  
ok so you only need the max run bpc's when using decryptors or invention mods, correct? If so, is it worth investing in the multi run decryptors etc? [sorry i think i've just gone in a full circle]..
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Lord Fitz
Project Amargosa
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Posted - 2008.09.03 14:39:00 -
[26]
Originally by: Oli Robbo
ok so you only need the max run bpc's when using decryptors or invention mods, correct? If so, is it worth investing in the multi run decryptors etc? [sorry i think i've just gone in a full circle]..
The formula for runs is:
round down((Input Runs / T1 Production Limit) * (T2 Production Limit / 10)) + decryptor runs
You get a minimum of 1 run if successful though, so if you were only going to get 1 run with a max run input, you'd still get that 1 run anyway.
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2008.09.03 15:55:00 -
[27]
Originally by: Oli Robbo
ok so you only need the max run bpc's when using decryptors or invention mods, correct?
You never NEED more than just 1 run on the T1 BPC, however, for some invention jobs (especially modules), it's cheaper overall if you use max runs instead.
It's all about how much a 1 run vs max run BPC costs when compared to the rest of the invention costs (datacores and, if any, the decryptors or meta 1+ items) and looking at how many more runs you get in the end.
Ships have a max base output of 1, so using maxruns on the T1 BPC only adds 1 run to the T2 BPC (in most cases anyway, if you use a +0 runs decryptor you still only get one run, not two)... but on modules and most other items, the max base output is 10, which is quite significant.
_
SHOPS || Mission rewards revamp || better nanofix
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Oli Robbo
Gallente
Galactic Defence Syndicate
Axiom Empire
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Posted - 2008.09.04 10:03:00 -
[28]
ok cheers guys, i think i'm slowly getting the idea. I've had a look for guides to do with invention, but haven't found a clear one yet.. if you guys have any, i'd be greatful.
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Salisuka
Caldari
98.4
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Posted - 2008.09.04 18:16:00 -
[29]
I'd like to add that a 9-run bpc is much much better than a 4-run bpc for large production operations.
A 9-run bpc comes out to 5.34 hours per run while a 4-run bpc works out to 12 hours per run. That's double the time, time that could be used to invent even more bpc's to sell / produce from. Most serious builders and corps have more than enough builders at hand (takes only roughly two months to train one) and are short on bpc's most of the time.
To the OP, remember, it takes isk to make isk.  |
Lord Fitz
Project Amargosa
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Posted - 2008.09.05 12:01:00 -
[30]
Edited by: Lord Fitz on 05/09/2008 12:02:55
Originally by: Salisuka
I'd like to add that a 9-run bpc is much much better than a 4-run bpc for large production operations.
A 9-run bpc comes out to 5.34 hours per run while a 4-run bpc works out to 12 hours per run. That's double the time, time that could be used to invent even more bpc's to sell / produce from. Most serious builders and corps have more than enough builders at hand (takes only roughly two months to train one) and are short on bpc's most of the time.
To the OP, remember, it takes isk to make isk.
Hmm, you can usually invent faster than you can build, but it depends on what. If you're inventing alot of single run ship BPCs then maybe not. Personally I only have 1 Minmatar/Amarr inventor (10 slots) and 1 Gallente/Caldari inventor (another 10), but I can press 40 build slots into use building T2 stuff quite easily, it's rather impressive to use every single slot in an NPC station yourself. If the POS arrays were better it would be good.
That said, usually the short invention times for alot of things will leave you with empty invention slots if you're not online to keep feeding things through, and the same if you were building smaller runs. There's nothing like a 10 run ship BPC to keep a build slot busy while you're busy IRL for a week or so.
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