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Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
449
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Posted - 2012.03.28 16:14:00 -
[31] - Quote
Kalipoli wrote:Nocx will keep going up for a while before it tops off at around 700. I have no facts to back this its just a feeling. whatever the case ive been stockpiling for some time now all minerals, I knew they all would go up.
As for the two killing all the hulks. Good on you, thank you for pointing out that most miners are stupid. if you go out with less than 10k hp in your hulk, you deserve to blown the f up.
Considering I have seen killboards with 1 catalyst doing 5600 damage, it'll take all of *two* of them to blow a tanked hulk that still does what it's meant to (which is not about being an all tank zero yeld bait ship).
Considering that to perform the "boomerang" gank tecniques they tend to use tier 3 BCs (those whith huge alpha), a 10k hulk is a non factor.
About Nocx, when I mined some years ago, there were amazing amounts of pyroxeres. They just happened to be ignored by everyone because of their low ISK/volume.
Once Nocx will rise past a certain value, suddenly the miners will start targetting pyroxeres and then guess what happens. Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |
lafforet
Amarr Royal Trust Bank
7
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Posted - 2012.03.28 16:26:00 -
[32] - Quote
If mining makes 18% of all nocxium, nothing much will happen when miners will target pyroxeres.
Nocxium already was at its peak price before zydrine saga. I suppose it is because of declining nocxium inflow from mission loot. The data was from 2008 and we know that many people have switched to incursions instead of running missions. Mining nocxium inflow is miserable and nocxium will become the new technetium. Sky is the limit for nocxium. There will be no new stable price, not at 700 and not even at 2000. |
Black Reagan
Pandemic Region
1
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Posted - 2012.03.28 16:32:00 -
[33] - Quote
lafforet wrote:If mining makes 18% of all nocxium, nothing much will happen when miners will target pyroxeres.
Nocxium already was at its peak price before zydrine saga. I suppose it is because of declining nocxium inflow from mission loot. The data was from 2008 and we know that many people have switched to incursions instead of running missions. Mining nocxium inflow is miserable and nocxium will become the new technetium. Sky is the limit for nocxium. There will be no new stable price, not at 700 and not even at 2000.
It will be interesting to see what happens when the nox supply runs out, think most people have already seen the writing on the wall and are stocking up for when the change happens.
only about 4m units left below 640 now |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
449
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Posted - 2012.03.28 16:50:00 -
[34] - Quote
The current bubble has nothing to do with the actual Nocx situation.
It's the usual "start manipulation, get as many lemmings in a sack as possible, forum post to gather more, then dump on their face".
Only later the actual shortage will show. Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |
Casius Omega
School of Applied Knowledge Caldari State
3
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Posted - 2012.03.28 16:54:00 -
[35] - Quote
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:The current bubble has nothing to do with the actual Nocx situation.
It's the usual "start manipulation, get as many lemmings in a sack as possible, forum post to gather more, then dump on their face".
Only later the actual shortage will show.
did you even read what i wrote in the OP? given time for stock to run out price WILL go up.
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Tekota
The Freighter Factory
216
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Posted - 2012.03.28 17:13:00 -
[36] - Quote
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote: About Nocx, when I mined some years ago, there were amazing amounts of pyroxeres. They just happened to be ignored by everyone because of their low ISK/volume.
Once Nocx will rise past a certain value, suddenly the miners will start targetting pyroxeres and then guess what happens.
That is indeed the key point.
Nocxium is not limited by supply, it's limited by the number of people harvesting that supply.
Once isk/hour of mining mineral X is better than mineral Y then mineral X will get mined. This being particularly true for nocx which has reasonable quantities in high sec.
Once isk/hour of mining in general becomes competitive with similar relatively mindless activities then people will switch to mining.
Will nocx go up? Undoubtedly. How much, I'm not able to say; personally I remember the price levels of nocx before the Noctis came along the christmas before last, so I'm a little cautious of it. What I can say for certain is that the limit for nocx (and indeed zyd) is lower than the sky. |
Casius Omega
School of Applied Knowledge Caldari State
3
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Posted - 2012.03.28 17:18:00 -
[37] - Quote
Tekota wrote:Vaerah Vahrokha wrote: About Nocx, when I mined some years ago, there were amazing amounts of pyroxeres. They just happened to be ignored by everyone because of their low ISK/volume.
Once Nocx will rise past a certain value, suddenly the miners will start targetting pyroxeres and then guess what happens.
That is indeed the key point. Nocxium is not limited by supply, it's limited by the number of people harvesting that supply. Once isk/hour of mining mineral X is better than mineral Y then mineral X will get mined. This being particularly true for nocx which has reasonable quantities in high sec. Once isk/hour of mining in general becomes competitive with similar relatively mindless activities then people will switch to mining. Will nocx go up? Undoubtedly. How much, I'm not able to say; personally I remember the price levels of nocx before the Noctis came along the christmas before last, so I'm a little cautious of it. What I can say for certain is that the limit for nocx (and indeed zyd) is lower than the sky.
The only rock that drops nocx in high sec is pyro and it has the least ammount of pyro among any of the rocks. Its 0.110 per m3 so every 10m3 you get 1 nocx Yes once it goes up people will start to mine it but can they keep up with the demand for it? React fast enough? I doubt it |
Tekota
The Freighter Factory
216
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Posted - 2012.03.28 17:35:00 -
[38] - Quote
Casius Omega wrote: The only rock that drops nocx in high sec is pyro and it has the least ammount of pyro among any of the rocks. Its 0.110 per m3 so every 10m3 you get 1.1 nocx Yes once it goes up people will start to mine it but can they keep up with the demand for it? React fast enough? I doubt it
If you're asking whether there are enough hi sec rocks, as low in nocx content as they are, in high sec to supply the market's needs then my guess is actually yes, throw in some from wormholes (which weren't around when drone regions were introduced) and resurgence of mining in null (thanks to zyd prices making it attractive) and supply/demand will be there - all it takes is people to harvest it.
And people will harvest it when the price is right.
If you're asking whether they'll be able to react fast enough and switch over to mining rock x instead of rock y or switch from mundane isk making activity X to mining then that's what the market is for. |
lafforet
Amarr Royal Trust Bank
7
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Posted - 2012.03.28 17:48:00 -
[39] - Quote
Sky is the limit does not mean that no one sell the mineral. It means that demand is higher than offer. With 18% and "pubbie miners" attitude I can clearly see that this can be the case. |
Tasko Pal
Spallated Garniferous Schist
198
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Posted - 2012.03.28 17:49:00 -
[40] - Quote
Krixtal Icefluxor wrote:
**yawn**
That's the sound of stupid.
As to nocxium, my take is that the current bump is from people getting out of zydrine. Nocxium has the problem that it's trading at an all time high. It can't go up much more before the low sec roids become more valuable to mine than ABC. And ABC can't go up much more before they're more valuable to mine by players with multiple alts than various grinds like anomalies, WH stuff, and l4 missions.
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Riley Moore
Sentinum Research
395
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Posted - 2012.03.28 17:49:00 -
[41] - Quote
It's currently rising fast. Already have 11.75% profit on my stock. Keep it going Large volumes of highly researched Ammo, drones, charges and ship bpo's. Biggest BPO store in EVE! https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&m=445524#post445524 |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
450
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Posted - 2012.03.28 17:51:00 -
[42] - Quote
Casius Omega wrote: did you even read what i wrote in the OP? given time for stock to run out price WILL go up.
I read the OP but if you read the last number of posts they are mostly about hyping the scarcity and form a bubble. My post was addressed at them.
Also, it might seem odd enough but I have built capitals without mining a single pyroxeres roid.
There are other faucets around. Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |
Tasko Pal
Spallated Garniferous Schist
198
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Posted - 2012.03.28 17:56:00 -
[43] - Quote
Casius Omega wrote:
Where are minerals come from || Mineral || Ore% || Loot% || Drone Compounds% || ||-----------||------||-------||------------------|| || Tritanium || 46% || 43% || 11% || || Pyerite || 29% || 60% || 10% || || Mexallon || 30% || 59% || 11% || || Isogen || 21% || 56% || 23% || || Nocxium || 18% || 32% || 51% || || Zydrine || 43% || 18% || 40% || || Megacyte || 44% || 39% || 16% || || Morphite || 77% || 1% || 22% ||
As you can see over 50% of nocxium came from drone regions. 40% of zydrine comes from drones and that mineral has already doubled and probably will triple in value. Im predicting this will happen to nocxium at the least it will double maybe triple.
To give a little perspective to this thread, here's a little question for you all to answer. How many nerfs to loot and drones have happened since this chart was made? How many boosts to mining?
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Casius Omega
School of Applied Knowledge Caldari State
3
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Posted - 2012.03.28 17:56:00 -
[44] - Quote
Tasko Pal wrote:Krixtal Icefluxor wrote:
**yawn**
That's the sound of stupid. As to nocxium, my take is that the current bump is from people getting out of zydrine. Nocxium has the problem that it's trading at an all time high. It can't go up much more before the low sec roids become more valuable to mine than ABC. And ABC can't go up much more before they're more valuable to mine by players with multiple alts than various grinds like anomalies, WH stuff, and l4 missions.
This post is stupid and doesn't make **** sence |
Casius Omega
School of Applied Knowledge Caldari State
3
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Posted - 2012.03.28 17:58:00 -
[45] - Quote
Tasko Pal wrote:Casius Omega wrote:
Where are minerals come from || Mineral || Ore% || Loot% || Drone Compounds% || ||-----------||------||-------||------------------|| || Tritanium || 46% || 43% || 11% || || Pyerite || 29% || 60% || 10% || || Mexallon || 30% || 59% || 11% || || Isogen || 21% || 56% || 23% || || Nocxium || 18% || 32% || 51% || || Zydrine || 43% || 18% || 40% || || Megacyte || 44% || 39% || 16% || || Morphite || 77% || 1% || 22% ||
As you can see over 50% of nocxium came from drone regions. 40% of zydrine comes from drones and that mineral has already doubled and probably will triple in value. Im predicting this will happen to nocxium at the least it will double maybe triple.
To give a little perspective to this thread, here's a little question for you all to answer. How many nerfs to loot and drones have happened since this chart was made? How many boosts to mining?
Well i think mission loot got nerfed and alot of people run incursions rather than missions, drone poo is gone, i dont think mining has gotten a buff besides rorq bonuses. |
lafforet
Amarr Royal Trust Bank
7
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Posted - 2012.03.28 18:03:00 -
[46] - Quote
Actually, yes... nocx price will not rise any more... unload your sotckpile now! So that I can buy some more nocx for lower price! |
Tasko Pal
Spallated Garniferous Schist
198
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Posted - 2012.03.28 18:07:00 -
[47] - Quote
Casius Omega wrote:
This post is stupid and doesn't make **** sence
Agreed. Maybe you ought to think before you post?
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Casius Omega
School of Applied Knowledge Caldari State
3
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Posted - 2012.03.28 18:08:00 -
[48] - Quote
Currently only 23mill of nocx in jita at below 788. After that there is a 788 wall of 20mill then .. practically nothing. |
Tasko Pal
Spallated Garniferous Schist
198
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Posted - 2012.03.28 18:13:00 -
[49] - Quote
Casius Omega wrote:
Well i think mission loot got nerfed and alot of people run incursions rather than missions, drone poo is gone, i dont think mining has gotten a buff besides rorq bonuses.
Mission loot and drones have been nerfed a lot of times with the only boost being the noctis. As to mining, we have the rorqual, orca, t2 mining ganglinks, and WH grav sites.
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Driftfire
Northern Star Enterprises
0
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Posted - 2012.03.28 18:58:00 -
[50] - Quote
TBH - I cannot see Nocx staying above 560 unless things change (drone nerf taken into account)
More than happy to be wrong.
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lafforet
Amarr Royal Trust Bank
7
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Posted - 2012.03.28 19:19:00 -
[51] - Quote
Driftfire wrote:TBH - I cannot see Nocx staying above 560 unless things change (drone nerf taken into account)
More than happy to be wrong.
All listen to this argumented opinion! Unload your stockpile now! Last chance!! |
Driftfire
Northern Star Enterprises
0
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Posted - 2012.03.28 20:07:00 -
[52] - Quote
Well I'll sell as much as you can eat over 650 - which I cannot see it making |
lafforet
Amarr Royal Trust Bank
7
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Posted - 2012.03.28 20:31:00 -
[53] - Quote
Driftfire wrote:Well I'll sell as much as you can eat over 650 - which I cannot see it making
Why should it make if drone region nerf is still to come in some future and current rise is only because people are making their stockpiles? Will see, however, how many days it will take to climb from 640 to 650. Then feel free to unload your stockpile. |
Driftfire
Northern Star Enterprises
0
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Posted - 2012.03.28 20:36:00 -
[54] - Quote
I have strong faith in my convictions - if you want to hedge against future rises contract me. Happy to see prices rise, so I do not want to affect the Jita price.
PS - not a massive player so keep your orders below 5mil chunks - will fill within the day... |
Page Starcaster
Society of lost Souls
0
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Posted - 2012.03.28 20:36:00 -
[55] - Quote
As stated in the OP you do get a little nox from pyrox in high sec. Contrary to what the op stated about pyrox not being mined in high sec, pyrox is mined a lot in caldari space. I always hit every pyrox rock in every belt. If I do leave a belt unstripped there is no pyrox left.. it is at the moment the highest value per m3 ore in high sec Some minerals that can not be acquired in high sec other than from former drone poo will go way up as low sec and wormhole mining are way higher risk and not so common.
Any mineral that can be mined in high sec even in small amounts will not be hit heavy by the drone poo nerf. High sec mining will get more profitable but minerals like nox are only needed in small amounts compared to the more common minerals. As there are so many high sec miners there will be no problem meeting the demand for nox from high sec mining
Other minerals however like morphite which I used to get primarily from drone poo, is going to get very hard to find. if the only source for morphite is mercoxit then where will the supply to hubs like Jita come from? mercoxit is hard to find. Even the rarest high sec grav sites never have mercoxit, never seen it in low either, can find it in only a few null sec belts in systems that have been upgraded, some null sec and wormhole grav sites, but that is it. Most null sec alliances and wormhole dwellers who bother to mine it keep it for themselves. I would say at least 90% of the morphite sold in Jita in the last year has been from drone poo. I am really glad I have a stock pile of almost 10,000 units. I bought it months ago(mostly in the form of drone alloys) for T2 production but may now keep it and sell it for massive profit when the price really goes up
The only minerals that will really go up in price due to the drone poo nerf are minerals that the only way to get them in high sec was from drone poo. Anything that can be mined in high sec will maybe double. Anything that can now only come from wormholes and null may go up by x5 or more.
I might have to reactivate my old mining crew accounts and dust off the old hulks. Mining just might give decent returns in the near future. |
Herping yourDerp
Federal Navy Academy Gallente Federation
426
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Posted - 2012.03.28 23:11:00 -
[56] - Quote
noxcium was 70 isk a few years ago... |
Mr Blue
Sniggerdly Pandemic Legion
22
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Posted - 2012.03.29 00:34:00 -
[57] - Quote
problem with morph and to a certain degree zyd/mega, is that they are so a limited player on the industri. atleast morph is only used in t2 (last I checked) and only very little. zyd/mega is more common, but still totaly possible to supply with a "few" hundred dedicated miners.
Nocx is a big player and thus while its easyer to obtain is needed in much bigger quantities. So I dont think it easy to say its gonna go up or down beyond this and that unless your the oracle herself. |
Vaal Erit
Science and Trade Institute Caldari State
81
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Posted - 2012.03.29 01:03:00 -
[58] - Quote
Herping yourDerp wrote:noxcium was 70 isk a few years ago...
I really wish I was smarter and put all my isk into nocx then.
I'm trying to remember when and why nocxium went skyrocket mode and I'm having trouble remembering. Was it the mission loot nerf/drone loot rebalance/ insurance rebalance patch of 2010? Was it the noctis dev blog? Or just good ol' fashioned speculation/market manipulation?
I don't think I'm buying the idea that nocxium is at the "low" price of 500-600 because of drone lands and will spike afterwards. Zydrine was at like 2k and drone lands reduced it to 850ish but nocxium did not suffer the same fate. There might be a small rise in nocxium price due to lower supply from drone lands but since nocxium can be mined in high sec I can't imagine it will spike like zyd. Pyro is the most isk/m3 to be mined in high sec or close to it, yes?
Although I am happy to haul around for a bit and buy up low 500 nocx orders and dump to 600 buy orders. |
Patri Andari
Thukker Tribe Antiquities Importer
71
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Posted - 2012.03.29 01:44:00 -
[59] - Quote
yawn
If only there were something I could buy ad nauseum from NPC markets that supplied this mineral.
Nocxium has a cap you mullets.
Patri
Miners! Make Moar Isks Nao! |
corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
106
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Posted - 2012.03.29 04:32:00 -
[60] - Quote
That's the problem with secrets. People just can't stand to keep them. |
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