The rate they are killing miners with a new technique in Amarr:



http://eve-kill.net/?a=pilot_detail&view=kills&plt_id=18178&m=3&y=2012

http://eve-kill.net/?a=pilot_detail&view=kills&plt_id=216803&m=3&y=2012



There won't be anyone left to mine for Nocx or silly enough to mine at all.

what do they do?

Concord neither spawns nor warps instantly, so if you're quick you can suicide gank a target, warp out, hit another target, warp out, hit another target, and in theory you can do this for as long as you want. That's what they seem to be doing, at least if their kill/loss to concord ratios are any indicator.

Wasn't evading concord considered an exploit?

Dude is obviously finding exploits as he is getting Pods too in a SOLO Catalyst AFTER the Hulk goes. Makes no sense.

[Not necessarily. Concord is pretty slow in 0.5, it's entirely possible to blow away an untanked miner, get the pod, and escape

This is totally on topic.

swapped from Zyd to nocxium speculation 1 week ago . o/


Not because I dont belive in zyd, its prob gonna go up a lot due to pure speculation(mainly), but long term I belive nocxium gonna go up due to shortage, speculation alone can only keep price up so and so long.

Hands up if you have Nocxium stockpiles



o/

Nocxium has already been drying up everywhere , how high do you think it will go?

The rate they are killing miners with a new technique in Amarr:

Yea, nobody ever thought to gank lolfits before.

Added: Oh you're talking about being able to gank several targets before getting Concorded. That's old news too.

atleast double what it is now

Nocx will keep going up for a while before it tops off at around 700. I have no facts to back this its just a feeling. whatever the case ive been stockpiling for some time now all minerals, I knew they all would go up.


As for the two killing all the hulks. Good on you, thank you for pointing out that most miners are stupid. if you go out with less than 10k hp in your hulk, you deserve to blown the f up.

If mining makes 18% of all nocxium, nothing much will happen when miners will target pyroxeres.

Nocxium already was at its peak price before zydrine saga. I suppose it is because of declining nocxium inflow from mission loot. The data was from 2008 and we know that many people have switched to incursions instead of running missions. Mining nocxium inflow is miserable and nocxium will become the new technetium. Sky is the limit for nocxium. There will be no new stable price, not at 700 and not even at 2000.

The current bubble has nothing to do with the actual Nocx situation.

It's the usual "start manipulation, get as many lemmings in a sack as possible, forum post to gather more, then dump on their face".

Only later the actual shortage will show.

About Nocx, when I mined some years ago, there were amazing amounts of pyroxeres. They just happened to be ignored by everyone because of their low ISK/volume.

Once Nocx will rise past a certain value, suddenly the miners will start targetting pyroxeres and then guess what happens.

That is indeed the key point.

Nocxium is not limited by supply, it's limited by the number of people harvesting that supply.

Once isk/hour of mining mineral X is better than mineral Y then mineral X will get mined. This being particularly true for nocx which has reasonable quantities in high sec.

Once isk/hour of mining in general becomes competitive with similar relatively mindless activities then people will switch to mining.

Will nocx go up? Undoubtedly. How much, I'm not able to say; personally I remember the price levels of nocx before the Noctis came along the christmas before last, so I'm a little cautious of it. What I can say for certain is that the limit for nocx (and indeed zyd) is lower than the sky.

The only rock that drops nocx in high sec is pyro and it has the least ammount of pyro among any of the rocks. Its 0.110 per m3 so every 10m3 you get 1.1 nocx
Yes once it goes up people will start to mine it but can they keep up with the demand for it? React fast enough? I doubt it

**yawn**

did you even read what i wrote in the OP?
given time for stock to run out price WILL go up.

Where are minerals come from
|| Mineral || Ore% || Loot% || Drone Compounds% ||
||-----------||------||-------||------------------||
|| Tritanium || 46% || 43% || 11% ||
|| Pyerite || 29% || 60% || 10% ||
|| Mexallon || 30% || 59% || 11% ||
|| Isogen || 21% || 56% || 23% ||
|| Nocxium || 18% || 32% || 51% ||
|| Zydrine || 43% || 18% || 40% ||
|| Megacyte || 44% || 39% || 16% ||
|| Morphite || 77% || 1% || 22% ||

As you can see over 50% of nocxium came from drone regions. 40% of zydrine comes from drones and that mineral has already doubled and probably will triple in value. Im predicting this will happen to nocxium at the least it will double maybe triple.

That's the sound of stupid.

As to nocxium, my take is that the current bump is from people getting out of zydrine. Nocxium has the problem that it's trading at an all time high. It can't go up much more before the low sec roids become more valuable to mine than ABC. And ABC can't go up much more before they're more valuable to mine by players with multiple alts than various grinds like anomalies, WH stuff, and l4 missions.

To give a little perspective to this thread, here's a little question for you all to answer. How many nerfs to loot and drones have happened since this chart was made? How many boosts to mining?

This post is stupid and doesn't make **** sence

Well i think mission loot got nerfed and alot of people run incursions rather than missions, drone poo is gone, i dont think mining has gotten a buff besides rorq bonuses.

TBH - I cannot see Nocx staying above 560 unless things change (drone nerf taken into account)

More than happy to be wrong.

Well I'll sell as much as you can eat over 650 - which I cannot see it making

noxcium was 70 isk a few years ago...

yawn

If only there were something I could buy ad nauseum from NPC markets that supplied this mineral.

Nocxium has a cap you mullets.

yawn

If only there were something I could buy ad nauseum from NPC markets that supplied this mineral.

Nocxium has a cap you mullets.

educate us, please

So with all the mineral price speculation and chances to make big isk i thought i would try and seek out your thoughts on nocxium. It seems people are starting to figure out this mineral is going to go UP UP UP and i agree with them.

Lets look where nocxium comes from.
Crokite | 0,0
Dark Ochre| 0,0
Hedbergite | 0,0 / low sec
Hemorphite | 0,0 / low sec
Jaspet | 0,0 / low sec
Pyroxeres | highsec 0,0 / low sec

As you can see the only way to get it in high sec is from Pyroxeres which needless to say isn't really mined by miners. Also the amount you get from pyro isn't a lot of nocxium at all. Not to mention you dont find many miners going after these kinds of rocks above except crokite of course but crokite is rare and only in 0,0. So where is all this nocxium coming from?? You guessed it Drone regions.

Where are minerals come from
|| Mineral || Ore% || Loot% || Drone Compounds% ||
||-----------||------||-------||------------------||
|| Tritanium || 46% || 43% || 11% ||
|| Pyerite || 29% || 60% || 10% ||
|| Mexallon || 30% || 59% || 11% ||
|| Isogen || 21% || 56% || 23% ||
|| Nocxium || 18% || 32% || 51% ||
|| Zydrine || 43% || 18% || 40% ||
|| Megacyte || 44% || 39% || 16% ||
|| Morphite || 77% || 1% || 22% ||

As you can see over 50% of nocxium came from drone regions. 40% of zydrine comes from drones and that mineral has already doubled and probably will triple in value. Im predicting this will happen to nocxium at the least it will double maybe triple.



TL:DR
Nocxium is going to go up a lot in the coming months

I'd LOVE to know where you pulled those numbers from.

Tornado's don't need nocxium, your argument is invalid.

I can't remember if you've explained your numbers elsewhere or not. Care to?

Mine approach it from the point of view that if certain ores get too pricey, the miners will flock to them driving up supply and driving down prices. Assuming that a solo hulk can pull in 90-95k m3 of ore per hour, and that once a solo hulk's income gets above 20-25M ISK/hr in hi-sec, the market reacts. Because it's not hard to dual or triple-box solo hulks and start pulling in 60-70M ISK/hr when hi-sec ore gets above 200 ISK/m3.

(Keeping in mind that hi-sec orca can boost yields by 40-65% per hour if a small fleet is setup. I used to run 3 hulks + orca and figured that I was topping out at around 350-360k m3/hr of raw ore.)

For null sec, a solo hulk that pulls in 50-60M ISK/hr starts to look very attractive (more so once you toss Rorqual boosts into the mix) - which is around 600 ISK/m3. So once again, I'm not sure that ores can get above 600 ISK/m3 and stay there for very long before the market balances back out.

I really don't expect hi-sec ores to stay above 150 ISK/m3 past mid-June / mid-July. Maybe they will if CCP keeps the botters at bay.

So that's my bet. I'd put nocx at 1200/unit on the low end, with 1700/unit as my top end call.

Interesting... however you should keep in mind there is a lot of speculation and volatility.
It is not impossible that the price goes above your price braket to fall back in when the speculation subsides.

Also interesting to not that actually nox is @750isk/u in Jita, and was somewhere 600isk/u a week ago. Nice jump in price, but not that dramatic.

Interesting... however you should keep in mind there is a lot of speculation and volatility.
It is not impossible that the price goes above your price braket to fall back in when the speculation subsides.

Also interesting to not that actually nox is @750isk/u in Jita, and was somewhere 600isk/u a week ago. Nice jump in price, but not that dramatic.

I completely missed WHY nocx is going up. What happened with supply?

CCP removed npc sold item that reprocessed into nocx. That item allowed for an unlimited supply of nocx putting the nocx price at a cap of around 530. (if price = higher, it's profitable to buy the npc good and reprocess to sell on market)

\o/

CCP removed npc sold item that reprocessed into nocx. That item allowed for an unlimited supply of nocx putting the nocx price at a cap of around 530. (if price = higher, it's profitable to buy the npc good and reprocess to sell on market)

Since the cap has been removed, would anyone tell us who are lazy what the item was?

o/

\o (but sadly way to little)

So, here is why I think you are wrong.



Lowsec is a player desert. There are very, very few people there, basically because the risk:reward is crap given hisec incursions, hisec missions, and all that other stuff. To make the risk worthwhile, the reward has to rise, and frankly, at your prices, it just isn't.

With your top-end case, lowsec ores are pretty much identical to highsec ores. Maybe a little better, but not enough to get people to venture out. They're in the 24-25m/hr range for Hedbergite and Hemorphite, 20-21m for Jaspet, assuming a hulk with average skills & T1 strip miners.

Now on the other hand, if we keep your prices the same but inflate Nocxium in a way that is out of proportion for your model, interesting things happen. At 1500/unit, say, suddenly hedbergite is worth about 35m/hr, hemorphite 38m/hr, and jaspet 33m/hr. Additionally, Dark Ochre gets up to about 35m/hr, so people in 0.0 might actually notice it, and crokite actually passes Arkonor and Bistot, exceeding 45m/hr, guaranteeing that it gets mined first.

At 1700/unit the nocx-bearing lowsec ores actually approach 0.0 ores.


So that's my bet. I'd put nocx at 1200/unit on the low end, with 1700/unit as my top end call.


e: It was pointed out that I'd overlooked pyroxeres. It's a non-issue. My top end makes it quite attractive (24m/hr) to highsec miners, but the actual output per refine is low - 11 units - and the asteroids are always small and get cleared quickly. I do not consider it to be a significant contributor.

Patch notes for EVE Online: Crucible 1.6.3

Released on Tuesday, April 3, 2012.
Fixes

[...]

World Shaping

Pax Amarria is back in print, now using an optimized production process.

It should be noted that low sec ores are the best supply of nocx - which is also where the least amount of mining is done. It might be interesting if nocx prices rise enough to make low sec mining lucrative enough to offset the risk.

This is part of the reason for my argument for 1200-1700/unit. Get up in that range and (provided my math is correct) a max skills max yield hulk with bonuses can get 60m/hr or more mining jaspet, hemorphite or hedbergite. That might just be enough to get some people to come out of their safe little highsec shell.

... where goons are waiting for you in cheap pvp ships.

It should be noted that low sec ores are the best supply of nocx - which is also where the least amount of mining is done. It might be interesting if nocx prices rise enough to make low sec mining lucrative enough to offset the risk.

But how many noob highsec carebear miners do you know what will jump right now into low sec and mine?

Hell, odds are they have NO IDEA that low sec ores are worth more.

oh and destroyer pvp should be tons of fun ganking those noobs

But how many noob highsec carebear miners do you know what will jump right now into low sec and mine?

Hell, odds are they have NO IDEA that low sec ores are worth more.


oh and destroyer pvp should be tons of fun ganking those noobs

There's chatter about mid and high end ores in WH's getting axed at some point, too... buried somewhere in CSM minutes or some such document... so don't get your hopes up about *future* Nocx and Zydrine supplies coming out of WH's as they currently do.

Hell, odds are they have NO IDEA that low sec ores are worth more.
oh and destroyer pvp should be tons of fun ganking those noobs

The reason I don't see that happening is that the risk is approximately equal between null / w-space. With null having easier logistics due to not having to worry about w-hole mass limits, while in w-space you can't be hot-dropped.

We'll probably see a small increase in lowsec mining corporations/alliances, but no great migration of people. Scanning down a WH or two everyday with gravsites will be far easier and even safer than flying around lowsec mining fields. Plus the wormholes give you ABC ore, not just small pockets of Jaspet and Hedbergite.

You sure do assume a lot.....even though you know NOTHING.

All Low Sec Ores are scannable in High Sec grav Sites.

No need to go to low.....where everyone knows the more valuable ores are.

I would say sell anything above 1,100 ISK. I don't beleive Nocxium will remain stable above 1,000 ISK for a long time. So now is the time to sell.

I would say sell anything above 1,100 ISK. I don't beleive Nocxium will remain stable above 1,000 ISK for a long time. So now is the time to sell.

Have you been in those grav sites? They are quite rare, not to mention that ore quantities are not that substantial. Most miners don't even bother. Only a few explorers mining them won't make a difference.

Yeah, that's a big issue with the size of grav sites. CCP makes the "small" ones so small that they're just not worth scanning down most of the time. Boost the size of grav sites by 5x in volume and they'll be a lot more interesting and worthwhile to go hunting for.

Impossible to tell what will be the prices in a month.
But for the moment the prices have doubled in what? A week?
It is a typical bubble situation, or an EVE translation of the RL High Frequency Trading, where it is possible to see variations out of the reality.

I bet on a crash before the expansion and a slow raise after. 1929 style

Only one thing is sure, the nocxium is way overpriced ATM.
In hazardous times, it is better to stick to basics!

It is also possible that nocx's price goes up and down between 700 and 1000 isk/u several times in the next weeks.

/me just saying.

Nocxium has taken a little bit of a dip in Amarr so far today compared to where it was yesterday. I suppose it may just be a weekend thing as people drop what they mined/reproccessed yesterday, seemingly oblivious to the upcoming patch. Hopefully the prices will start shooting back up again during the week when less people are online. :)

Sales were extremely slow on Sunday from my PoV. My guess is a bit of profit-taking, holidays and the market taking a breath before it goes nutzo again closer to the April 24th patch.

Mineral index is still generally up.
http://www.evemarketeer.com/trade/mineralindex

Nocx definitely showed some weakness on Sunday.
http://www.evemarketeer.com/item/info/38#3

The spread is also rather large. Top 5 region buy is 740, but the sell is 933.

My wallet on the other hand, nowhere near as fat as most people I assume on these MD forums, doesn't like it quite as much... for now.

I'm thinking that Nocxium's price will go up a fair bit during the next few weekdays. Not a guarantee, of course. Just a feeling. :o

I think this is something to take into account. When the bubble first started, and anyone watching fanfest with a brain was able to see that nocx was going up, many traders jumped in. Hence the rapid ascent. However, many of the 'smaller' traders are starting to see their wallets completely consumed by Nocx, and that doesn't always sit well.

These 'smaller' traders may be cashing out so they can free up liquid ISK for various other investments that aren't as 'long-term' as Nocx is going to be.

Just a thought.

Durin

120 million units of nocxium ready to crash the market here.

Don't make me use it.

Prices go up and down in swings.

It's actually a very negative sign when price stops taking a breath every few days, because then it chokes and crashes.

Look at this little quick graph I slapped together.

I marked the swings with arrows, price goes down a bit, takes a breather, then resumes the climb.
At the bottom of most swings it's possible to buy "low" (compared to 2-3 days earlier) and take a larger profit later. I marked the appropriate price action with "buy".

The last swing it goes "hyperbolical" with no further pauses. When it starts going down, it shows a price action bar (a pin bar) like in the previous swings but it will be an exhaustion pin bar this time also known as inverse pin bar. Who will buy there will get burned. Price in fact often will drop till it will "sit" right on top of the previous swing bars highs.

Wise traders will wait till price crashes a bit, then buy. Only then, a second high top will form and the classic pattern called "double top" will appear. Past that, it's free fall till the double top target, often it's at least as big of a drop as the double top height.

Now is the right time to unload nocx stockpile ...

Vaerah, that looks more like speculators profit taking than anything. In a breakout situation doesn't the previous resistance become the new support? That particular pattern is seen in two of the last 3 dips that the price has had. Just a note that I am a market noob and only have about 5 minutes of technical analysis under my belt here (and testing my newly acquired skills)

Thoughts?

Vexx

If you want I can post the full graph and you'll see how indeed the price tanked, formed a double top and then dove down to 2 swings below. You can see by yourself by opening any Forex EURUSD monthly graph.

Concord neither spawns nor warps instantly, so if you're quick you can suicide gank a target, warp out, hit another target, warp out, hit another target, and in theory you can do this for as long as you want. That's what they seem to be doing, at least if their kill/loss to concord ratios are any indicator.

Definitely an exploit according to CCP definition.