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Quantum Rise - the Death of Eve online ?

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ShardowRhino Caldari Legion 0f The Damned	Posted - 2008.11.06 11:14:00 - [61] Originally by: zombe queen As the OP i am going too keep my own opinion too my self. Discuss... why do people BOTHER starting threads about topics they themselves are unwilling to talk about? saying "discuss" shouldn't get people to spill their opinions while you hide your own. the OP should state what they feel about the topic then ask a question or two if they wish for a discussion. ./shakes head
oilio Caldari State War Academy	Posted - 2008.11.06 11:15:00 - [62] Edited by: oilio on 06/11/2008 11:15:39 Well, if you take a look here: Coldfront and check the bottom graph, you will see that server population is in fact falling. The peak was in March 2008, and the numbers have been levelling off, and then falling slightly ever since that point. Eve is NOT growing in popularity. At best, it's stagnant, but more likely it's just starting to die. All those people who say "oh noes! eve is dying AGAIN!" should look at that graph, because previously the numbers were always increasing. The period since March is the first time in the history of the game that the numbers have started to fall. This is great, in my opinion. I love eve, but I really don't like CCP and by March they should be in major difficulties. The numbers are falling now but once Jumpgate Evolution hits the scene, the figures will fall even more quickly, I think. I also don't like the CCP fanboys and the smug people who still deny that Eve is actually on the decline. Let's wait and see. My accounts run out in December and I won't be renewing. I will return on one account in March just so that I can use the forums where I will either: a) Admit that my prediction was completely inaccurate or hopefully... b) Gloat over the fact that CCP have finally wrecked a game that should have been successful. We'll see... but for all you people who think that Eve is fine and will continue to go from "strength to strength", look at the coldfront graph - that's not what's actually happening Eve isn't dying YET, but it isn't in the best of health either. WONDERFUL! P.S. Take a look at MMORPGChart I suspect that CCP just supply cumulative figures for their player numbers, so it looks like the number of players in Eve is rising, but that's most likely because CCP just supply the number accounts created rather than active accounts. Anyway, from those charts you will see that once an MMORPG starts to level off and decline, it almost NEVER recovers again. Eve is definitely in the "levelling off" phase, and is showing the beginnings of a decline. Is CCP capable of reversing that trend? Can they get the numbers to climb again? NO, OF COURSE NOT! So enjoy your game while it lasts. Let's see how confident you look in March when the coldfront graphs show an undeniable decline
Dianalexia	Posted - 2008.11.06 11:50:00 - [63] Originally by: Kuar Z'thain Adapt or die. Dude, that's so clichT. And gloomy. Boooooorinnnnnnnggggggggg.
Hooch Flux Caldari	Posted - 2008.11.06 11:52:00 - [64] Originally by: oilio Let's wait and see. My accounts run out in December and I won't be renewing. Don't let the door hit you in the... I say prep for dustoff, nuke the site from orbit... Only way to be sure!
Zurrar Gallente Universal Exports FOUNDATI0N	Posted - 2008.11.06 11:53:00 - [65] Originally by: Kuar Z'thain Adapt or die. Now please go away. qft
Heisenburg Principle	Posted - 2008.11.06 11:54:00 - [66] can i have your stuff?
Zurrar Gallente Universal Exports FOUNDATI0N	Posted - 2008.11.06 11:55:00 - [67] Edited by: Zurrar on 06/11/2008 11:55:47 Originally by: oilio Edited by: oilio on 06/11/2008 11:15:39 Well, if you take a look here: Coldfront and check the bottom graph, you will see that server population is in fact falling. The peak was in March 2008, and the numbers have been levelling off, and then falling slightly ever since that point. Eve is NOT growing in popularity. At best, it's stagnant, but more likely it's just starting to die. All those people who say "oh noes! eve is dying AGAIN!" should look at that graph, because previously the numbers were always increasing. The period since March is the first time in the history of the game that the numbers have started to fall. This is great, in my opinion. I love eve, but I really don't like CCP and by March they should be in major difficulties. The numbers are falling now but once Jumpgate Evolution hits the scene, the figures will fall even more quickly, I think. I also don't like the CCP fanboys and the smug people who still deny that Eve is actually on the decline. Let's wait and see. My accounts run out in December and I won't be renewing. I will return on one account in March just so that I can use the forums where I will either: a) Admit that my prediction was completely inaccurate or hopefully... b) Gloat over the fact that CCP have finally wrecked a game that should have been successful. We'll see... but for all you people who think that Eve is fine and will continue to go from "strength to strength", look at the coldfront graph - that's not what's actually happening Eve isn't dying YET, but it isn't in the best of health either. WONDERFUL! P.S. Take a look at MMORPGChart I suspect that CCP just supply cumulative figures for their player numbers, so it looks like the number of players in Eve is rising, but that's most likely because CCP just supply the number accounts created rather than active accounts. Anyway, from those charts you will see that once an MMORPG starts to level off and decline, it almost NEVER recovers again. Eve is definitely in the "levelling off" phase, and is showing the beginnings of a decline. Is CCP capable of reversing that trend? Can they get the numbers to climb again? NO, OF COURSE NOT! So enjoy your game while it lasts. Let's see how confident you look in March when the coldfront graphs show an undeniable decline ummmm possibly because its cooler out and ppl are out doing things, THERE IS A WORLD OUTSIDE THE HOUSE YOU KNOW. i know ive been on less cause real life, dont mean QR is gonna kill eve... altho obama is gonna rule the world waits for the 666 tats and according to the graphs, eve is growing
Leon vanUber	Posted - 2008.11.06 12:00:00 - [68] Originally by: oilio Edited by: oilio on 06/11/2008 11:15:39 Well, if you take a look here... i really want to disagree, but he has a valid point. It's nothing personal. I just want your stuff, and more importantly the fun of the fight.
Lazuran Gallente Aliastra	Posted - 2008.11.06 12:26:00 - [69] Edited by: Lazuran on 06/11/2008 12:27:23 Originally by: Zurrar ummmm possibly because its cooler out and ppl are out doing things, THERE IS A WORLD OUTSIDE THE HOUSE YOU KNOW. i know ive been on less cause real life, dont mean QR is gonna kill eve... altho obama is gonna rule the world waits for the 666 tats So while some people have pointed out the clearly visible stagnation 5-6 months ago already, we've had the following "explanations": * it's the weather, people are going outside more (than ever?) because it's warm (in Summer) or cooler (now) * it's seasonal, people are going back to college etc. (first time this year obviously) * it's the economic crisis (since March ...) * it's PotBS/AoC/WAR (just when you thought WoW would have killed EVE) * it's not true, I can see it clearly (like the UFOs in the sky) Quote: and according to the graphs, eve is growing Nope.
Lazuran Gallente Aliastra	Posted - 2008.11.06 12:30:00 - [70] Originally by: oilio P.S. Take a look at MMORPGChart I suspect that CCP just supply cumulative figures for their player numbers, so it looks like the number of players in Eve is rising, but that's most likely because CCP just supply the number accounts created rather than active accounts. It's also not updated regularly, it doesn't even have AoC yet (or WAR) ... So the latest EVE numbers might well be from March.
Abrazzar	Posted - 2008.11.06 12:55:00 - [71] If you look at the graphs you'll realize that dying games have usually a sudden and extreme drop in subscribers. EVE does not show this dying behavior. It may be stagnating at the moment subscriber wise, but that isn't death, that's stability. Stagnation in development would be death, but CCP is doing good with regular expansions, so stagnation in that area isn't happening. -------- Ideas for: Mining
SSgt Sniper Gallente MAIDS	Posted - 2008.11.06 13:15:00 - [72] Originally by: Abrazzar If you look at the graphs you'll realize that dying games have usually a sudden and extreme drop in subscribers. EVE does not show this dying behavior. It may be stagnating at the moment subscriber wise, but that isn't death, that's stability. Stagnation in development would be death, but CCP is doing good with regular expansions, so stagnation in that area isn't happening. Well, since a lot of the more recently upset are paid until somewhere into next year........ Let's just wait and see. I know I'm paid until May myself. ------- CEO of Maids. No I didn't pick the name. I've grown rather fond of it though.Poor PR in progress!
Andrue Amarr	Posted - 2008.11.06 13:34:00 - [73] Whiners will whine. Intelligent players will enjoy the fun of adapting to the changes and working out new angles. Eve will die on the day that the devs stop balancing things. That's the day when it starts to become stale and predictable. -- (Sarcastic mission running veteran, 4+ years) [Brackley, UK] My budgie can say "ploppy bottom". You have been warned.

Chribba Otherworld Enterprises Otherworld Empire	Posted - 2008.11.06 13:36:00 - [74] I think most of us has died at least once since beta. Secure 3rd party service ■ Veldspar

Rob Z0mbie	Posted - 2008.11.06 14:11:00 - [75] Originally by: Kuar Z'thain Adapt or die. Now please go away. \(o.0)/
Bit Steen	Posted - 2008.11.06 14:31:00 - [76] How do YOu feel about the comming and recent changes too the game and the pricing schemes? Did i miss something? Will it be more expensive? If not, i dont care. How have these changes effected your opinion, enjoyment and participation of our beloved game? As long as the price dont sky rocket, its ok and i think i love the blockade runner changes.
Jas Dor Minmatar	Posted - 2008.11.06 14:50:00 - [77] Well tbh my mains corp is seeing a lot of old players return to the game. Lots of folks were just completely turned off by the nano age. Lots of folks looking forward to a return of the "bring fire and steel" days of PvP. The heavy ships and the assault frigates are being readied. To are nano friends, welcome to the world that many of the vets know, a world where the looser gets wiped out and the winner looses half their ships. Please fit faction, k. Names, Dates, Times, Engagements, Losses, Op-Tempo or STFU!
Boogle Mcfoog	Posted - 2008.11.06 14:52:00 - [78] Originally by: Kuar Z'thain Adapt or die. Now please go away. like we had to do at the other nano nerfs? why don't you adapt by putting a heavy nuet on your ratting ship instead of a slavager or tractor beam. We have to change what all of our skills our specced for. You would have to adapt by putting 1 mod on your ship.
Pesky LaRue Minmatar	Posted - 2008.11.06 15:05:00 - [79] Originally by: oilio Well, if you take a look here: Coldfront We'll see... but for all you people who think that Eve is fine and will continue to go from "strength to strength", look at the coldfront graph - that's not what's actually happening b) Gloat over the fact that CCP have finally wrecked a game that should have been successful. you're a pretty laughable individual and while feeding the trolls is a bad idea - 1. anyone that doesn't expect SOME decline after FIVE FRIGGING YEARS is an idiot - seems you fit that bill 2. the whole "wrecked a game that should have been successful" - again, this game has been around for five years, was intended as a niche-game but has actually become the 2nd most successful MMOG after WoW - you'd have ot be an idiot to call that failure, but again, you fit that bill. ++ ++ ++ ++ ++ ++ ++
Dizeezer Velar Caldari League of Disgruntled Fast Food Employees	Posted - 2008.11.06 15:09:00 - [80] Horrible patch for anyone that has invested months and months of speccing in battleship combat. Especially blaster platforms. This patch brings noobs on par with veterans in that small ship platforms will be the preferred ship choice and the person with the most falcon alts wins everything. Sweet?
Lysianna Celestial Janissaries Curatores Veritatis Alliance	Posted - 2008.11.06 15:16:00 - [81] This patch will make the cookie cutter easy mode player cry. That's about it... The speed nerf has been needed for a long time... ________________________________________________ Lysianna Hazumason Celestial Janissaries Curatores Veritatis Alliance
Jas Dor Minmatar	Posted - 2008.11.06 15:19:00 - [82] Originally by: oilio Edited by: oilio on 06/11/2008 11:15:39 Well, if you take a look here: Coldfront and check the bottom graph, you will see that server population is in fact falling. The peak was in March 2008, and the numbers have been levelling off, and then falling slightly ever since that point. Sir I'm afraid to inform you of several logical flaws in your argument. The first of course being that QR has not be released yet. In fact the possibility of a speed nerf has only been announced for the last four months. It therefor follows as a logical conclusion that the speed nerf is not responsible for the decline in total accounts online. It would logically follow that we must look at conditions present in the early part of 2008 to identify why total accounts online have dropped. Of these there are four possibilities: 1) The end of the BoB war in the early part of 2008 left people burnt out, or at least with less reason to logon. 2) The beginning of the high nano age in early 2008 turned many people off. 3) The current state of (super)capital warfare has convinced many players that their is no accessible endgame resulting in a drop in sub numbers. 4) some procedural change to either industry or mission running has put many of the empire carebears who are the backbone of CCP's income off from the game. My expereince out in 0.0 shows that 2) is one of the top reasons folks go inactive with 3) (especially as relates to supercaps) also being a major reason. On the other hand my gut is telling me that 4) is somehow involved, but I haven't ran a mission since my main got 8.0 standings with a NPC corp that has jump clones. Names, Dates, Times, Engagements, Losses, Op-Tempo or STFU!
oilio Caldari State War Academy	Posted - 2008.11.06 15:35:00 - [83] Originally by: Jas Dor Sir I'm afraid to inform you of several logical flaws in your argument... Yeah, sorry - I wasn't suggesting that the fall in player numbers was because of Quantum Rise - simply countering the arguments that "Eve is fine". For whatever reasons, Eve appears to be on the decline. No doubt your observations are some of the contributary factors, but overall I think it comes down to general mis-management by CCP.
oilio Caldari State War Academy	Posted - 2008.11.06 15:40:00 - [84] Originally by: Pesky LaRue you're a pretty laughable individual and while feeding the trolls is a bad idea - 1. anyone that doesn't expect SOME decline after FIVE FRIGGING YEARS is an idiot - seems you fit that bill 2. the whole "wrecked a game that should have been successful" - again, this game has been around for five years, was intended as a niche-game but has actually become the 2nd most successful MMOG after WoW - you'd have ot be an idiot to call that failure, but again, you fit that bill. If there's one thing sadder than a company fanboy, it's a company fanboy in denial You're defending CCP out of blind loyalty. I NEVER suggested why Eve is going into decline. I was simply noting that it is - in response to all the posts that implied that "eve is doing fine". It isn't. Like I said: see you in March, fanboy. I'll be happy to admit that I am wrong if Eve begins to gain players again... ...but I really doubt it will. I'm near certain that the decline will be much more pronounced by then. Will you cry fanboy tears for your beloved company when it becomes clear that they have screwed up?
Todd Doughnut	Posted - 2008.11.06 16:02:00 - [85] I canceled 2 accounts because of nano. You cant operate 3 ships at the speed necessary to fight nano. Now that its being nerfed my accounts will pop back on.
Ranger 1 Amarr Shiva Morsus Mihi	Posted - 2008.11.06 16:09:00 - [86] Edited by: Ranger 1 on 06/11/2008 16:15:16 Originally by: oilio Lots of poorly thought out crap from a person that has their panties in a bunch over the ghost training nerf. Let me just make a few points: Weather does play a part in participation in MMO's. Nicer weather (not necessarily based on warmer or cooler) tends to get people outside more. Bad weather (generally winter time, nothing to do outside weather) tends to increase indoor activities like playing a MMO. I can't address the rest of the world, but here in the states we are jut now beginning to enter into the poor weather time of year. I think you'll see what I mean. CCP just cleaned house on ghost training, so yes we are going to see the numbers level out or even decline for a time. I'm not going into my views on whether this is a good thing or a bad thing here, its just a fact. I don't have much doubt that new subscriptions will quickly balance this out and swing it back to its stable growth curve. Speaking of those new subscriptions, over the next few months we will be seeing additions to the game that should HEAVILY increase the numbers of new people giving EVE a try, the biggest of which is ambulation. Personally, I think its interesting but I doubt it will affect most of us old timers a lot one way or another (unless it tends to reduce lag in busy systems with lots of stations) but I certainly don't object to anything that brings greater appeal to the masses (as long as it doesn't have a detrimental effect on current gameplay. And honestly, more building blocks like this in the base code of EVE makes it more and more likely that we will see new area's of interesting game play over time, like planetary resouces or atmospheric combat to control those resources. A lot of the base programing is being revamped to more easily allow for expansion, which is a wise strategic move on CCP's part. Let us also recognize that over the time period you mention, lag had reached the point where it was a deciding factor for many people as to whether they could get a good gaming experience. Huge strides in this area have recently been achieved, with fairly dramatic results easily observed by even the most casual of players. This is going to bring back a lot of people, and bring in a lot of new people as well. It will just take a bit of time for people to drop the "but the lag sucks" addendum that in the past was always added when describing EVE to new folks. All quips aside, I'm sorry that so many people feel shafted by the ghost training and time card nerf. I sympathize, but I also can't agree with the "I hope CCP fails now because I can't run as many extra accounts" attitude that a vocal minority are splashing across the forums. You can voice that opinion on these private forums as long as CCP will tolerate it, but be aware that a great many of us enjoy the game immensely and will continue to voice that opinion here as well. Edit: I forgot to mention this. No one is denying the validity of the graphs you point to, things have leveled out over the last few months. However I think many of us believe that your analysis of what is generating those statistics is incorrect, along with your predictions about it signaling a future decline.
Mallikan Gallente Plundering Penguins Anarchy.	Posted - 2008.11.06 16:11:00 - [87] Uggggh... I just want to see the devs get fed up with the ungrateful snobs like oilio and perma ban them from the forums. --- lol.. I messed up.
oilio Caldari State War Academy	Posted - 2008.11.06 16:24:00 - [88] Originally by: Mallikan Uggggh... I just want to see the devs get fed up with the ungrateful snobs like oilio and perma ban them from the forums. Now THAT's a fanboy response! I assume you don't PAY to play this game, yes? Daddy buys your timecards? CUSTOMERS don't need to be GRATEFUL. My GRATITUDE comes in the form of paying a subscription. Do you think CCP give a damn whether you're grateful or not? They want your money (and I'm not criticising that at all). Don't give me this "you should be grateful" crap. This is a paid service.
Arte AFK	Posted - 2008.11.06 16:25:00 - [89] Originally by: Abrazzar EVE IS DYING !!! Not again...
Ranger 1 Amarr Shiva Morsus Mihi	Posted - 2008.11.06 16:27:00 - [90] Originally by: oilio Originally by: Mallikan Uggggh... I just want to see the devs get fed up with the ungrateful snobs like oilio and perma ban them from the forums. Now THAT's a fanboy response! I assume you don't PAY to play this game, yes? Daddy buys your timecards? CUSTOMERS don't need to be GRATEFUL. My GRATITUDE comes in the form of paying a subscription. Do you think CCP give a damn whether you're grateful or not? They want your money (and I'm not criticising that at all). Don't give me this "you should be grateful" crap. This is a paid service. You might take into consideration that if people don't agree with you, and think CCP does a fairly good job of providing this service, that doesn't make them fan boys. That makes them satisfied customers.

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