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Plumpy McPudding
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Posted - 2008.11.09 08:13:00 -
[1]
With Tritanium back on the rise since September, it's reaching almost 4 ISK per in some trade hubs. Is this do to the Orca coming out so everyone is stocking up on Trit? Is that the only reason? Also, when should the prices begin to deflate?
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Fear me for I have an insatiable appetite!
Proprietor and inventor of Chocolate Chip Chocolate Donut flavored Ice Cream. |
Cheopis
Ardishapur Ammunition and More
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Posted - 2008.11.09 08:24:00 -
[2]
When Orca prices start to tank shortly after the first ones roll off the production lines, IMHO. Timetable for this happening? Not quite sure.
At that point people will be putting BPO's in research and starting to look for consistent profit rather than balloon profit. Consistent profit won't support inflated trit prices very well.
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Sanguis Sanies
Amarr
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Posted - 2008.11.09 09:11:00 -
[3]
Edited by: Sanguis Sanies on 09/11/2008 09:11:30
yes, it is more or less solely the Orca, it will stay this way for about a month (maybe two) then fall back down.
Trit prices are fairly consistent over a year; during the Northern Summer (southern Winter) the price plummets (I've seen as low as 1.0 isk!) as all the school kids start logging in serious time and more miners (as in double or triple what are usually logged on) strip entire regions of Veldspar (I invoke CHRIBBA!!  ) the price plummets, then the holidays are over and the prices slowly creep up again, then back down over the year, so this, whilst unusual, is not unprecedented.
You'll notice that high-ends (Zydrine, Megacyte and Morphite) have started to fall, and in some hubs Megacyte is cheaper than Zydrine
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Desu Sigs |
Lady Andromedae
Caldari
The Andromedae
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Posted - 2008.11.09 15:21:00 -
[4]
Yes for Orca and of course every other production too. Since expansion release means always a break up on supply, manufactures want to have good stocks available right after expansion is out so they don't miss time.
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Korizan
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Posted - 2008.11.09 15:45:00 -
[5]
Edited by: Korizan on 09/11/2008 15:51:55
Basically.
Trit prices tend to go up just before and after a patch.
So people basically stop selling Trit and wait for the market to go up.
When it does people sell off huge amounts of Trit.
Market gets flooded.
Prices drop. Sales stop
Trit sales drop over the next few months.
Next expansion comes along and prices start rising as people aren't selling.
Price hits critical levels and the cycle begins again.
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s73v3n2k
Caldari
UK Corp
Mostly Harmless
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Posted - 2008.11.10 06:31:00 -
[6]
There is a nomber of factors probably causing these prices to rise and one is simply that a patch is on its way.
Personally i started manufacturing components for my future Orca business about 2 weeks ago and have about 1000 components stacked up and ready. However everyone else will be doing the same because they first orca's in game will sell at a high profit margin so its covers the extra cost of low end mineral price rises. Because of this people just keep buying them no matter what the price is and he miners see this and keep putting the price up more.
However once demand drys up for this new ship it will drop again and if anything the orca will actually increase suppy in the long term causing prices to fall too.
Aswell as the above we have had more frequent big battles in the north and by the looks of it, its kicking off in the south too. All these capitals need replaced so this again has cause a surge in demand for minerals especially trit and pye.
Before there was always something to stop prices going too high i.e. refining npc supplied items ingame instead of buying the minerals. Now CCP has removed most of these from the npc market or changed their mineral requirements which is going to cause prices i predict to go up more before they drop.
if you need the minerals and price matters buy them before all the orca suppliers start building their 2nd and 3rd batches because there not all going to have the components built already and the prices will still carry one going up.
the new empire large assembly array also allows a 25% reduction in manufacturing time of orca's and freighters this too will result in a freak surge in demand as producers produce large amounts in a short period and the market/miners can't keep up with demand.
conclusion
....4isk p/u here we come
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Esab
Caldari
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Posted - 2008.11.10 08:48:00 -
[7]
Im no expert but I should imagine that the fact that so many belts in high sec are almost non existant and therefore making it harder and more time consuming to get the said minerals could be a factor in it to.
Im no expert but from what I have seen the belts are in a bad way in most places.
Esab
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Shintai
Gallente
Balad Naran Orbital Shipyards
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Posted - 2008.11.10 09:31:00 -
[8]
It started to happen before the orca. The reason is the heavy 0.0 wars with 100s (if not 1000s) of cap loses and a few titans.
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Abstraction and Transcendence: Nature, Shintai, and Geometry |
Kazzac Elentria
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Posted - 2008.11.10 13:19:00 -
[9]
This is all speculative buying from traders and the ramp up of stock for capital parts.
Expect prices to stabilize within a few months after patch. Like it does for every single other major release. |
Lord Fitz
Project Amargosa
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Posted - 2008.11.10 14:23:00 -
[10]
It looks to me like trit is already on the way back down, I think many capital builders have finished their stockpile for the initial Orca building burst and are going to wait until they sell before buying more. I expect it to keep dropping, given that Orca's will likely be causing supply to increase as well as demand to decrease post-patch.
░▒▓ ORCA Pre-Orders ▓▒░ |
Animenick
Mobius Rising
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Posted - 2008.11.10 18:36:00 -
[11]
This is off topic, but does anyone know the average production time on the Orca?
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Kazzac Elentria
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Posted - 2008.11.10 18:48:00 -
[12]
 Originally by: Animenick
This is off topic, but does anyone know the average production time on the Orca?
About 5 days if you have the parts already |
Alpha Dorn
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Posted - 2008.11.10 19:03:00 -
[13]
Originally by: Animenick
This is off topic, but does anyone know the average production time on the Orca?
Based on what I see on the test server, standard build time is 1 week, but skills bring that down. Mine's at 5+ days
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Lord Fitz
Project Amargosa
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Posted - 2008.11.12 02:05:00 -
[14]
I churn them out every 4 days, 2 hours, 18 minutes. First ones available for sale/pre-order from 2008.11.16 03:38.
This is about as fast as you can build them outside of a 0.0 factory outpost, so not exactly 'average'.
░▒▓ ORCA Pre-Orders ▓▒░ |
Tamarana
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Posted - 2008.11.12 23:23:00 -
[15]
The tritanium prices started to rise after the july patch, because the CCP killed a courier mission called "Insane Industrialist". With it people had a collateral very low, so it was very profitable to sell the tritanium at 1 isk instead of delivering and complete the mission. Kor-Azor and Khanid volumes dropped from 2 billion units of tritanium a day to near zero in few days. And this happened in other regions too.
The tritanium hitting the market dropped 4-10 billions a day in EVE.
So the price started rise from 2.5 to 3.5 now (and growing).
We need something like a Capital miner ship (not the Rorqual). Something able to fit 8 capital strip miners and harvest veldspar in the 0.0 and low sec systems. Industrialist need the tritanium to continue to serial building freighters, jump freighters, carriers, mother and titans.
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NeoSmith
Rex Corp
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Posted - 2008.11.13 03:19:00 -
[16]
Having a bigger mining ship is probably what most miners want, me included.
But try to look at it in the bigger whole.
The impact of a bigger mining ship is the loose dependency of 0.0 and empire high sec in term of mineral supply.
I mean, currently 0.0 supply most of the high-end minerals while the highsec supply a big chunk of low-end minerals.
If a bigger mining ship is to be introduce, the relationship will break.
It might upset the economy relationship.
If we are to have that high yielding mining ship better than the incredible hulk, the Jovian (read: CCP) will have to find another way to bind 0.0 and empire.
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Lusulpher
Raddick Explorations
BlackWater.
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Posted - 2008.11.13 07:47:00 -
[17]
Edited by: Lusulpher on 13/11/2008 07:49:52
Edited by: Lusulpher on 13/11/2008 07:48:42
Originally by: Tamarana
We need something like a Capital miner ship (not the Rorqual). Something able to fit 8 capital strip miners and harvest veldspar in the 0.0 and low sec systems. Industrialist need the tritanium to continue to serial building freighters, jump freighters, carriers, mother and titans.
Supply and demand prevents "Capital Ships Online" from occurring. Never ask for a bigger ship, but a more specialized ship or fitting.
Imaginge a Mining Dread causing the price of every ore to be 100 ISK. And 60 Titans vs 50 Titans + 35 Motherships. Any game would lose credibility.
Industrial rigs need variety.
Live and Let Die...All of it...null |
Raijen Ar'Desh
Gallente
Interstellar Business Machines Corp.
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Posted - 2008.11.13 09:09:00 -
[18]
Originally by: Lusulpher
Industrial rigs need variety.
I wholeheartedly agree with this, I think that a rig, or specilized mining upgrade, that gives +x% to yield to ore Y would be nice. Keep the generic mining upgrade the way it is, but have the specialized ones add, say 50% more to the one ore type, and none to the other types.
Just an idea.
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Venkul Mul
Gallente
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Posted - 2008.11.13 09:56:00 -
[19]
Originally by: Tamarana
The tritanium prices started to rise after the july patch, because the CCP killed a courier mission called "Insane Industrialist". With it people had a collateral very low, so it was very profitable to sell the tritanium at 1 isk instead of delivering and complete the mission. Kor-Azor and Khanid volumes dropped from 2 billion units of tritanium a day to near zero in few days. And this happened in other regions too.
The tritanium hitting the market dropped 4-10 billions a day in EVE.
So the price started rise from 2.5 to 3.5 now (and growing).
We need something like a Capital miner ship (not the Rorqual). Something able to fit 8 capital strip miners and harvest veldspar in the 0.0 and low sec systems. Industrialist need the tritanium to continue to serial building freighters, jump freighters, carriers, mother and titans.
That mission had 2 million unit of tritanium with a collateral of 2 millions. So while I see it being failed to sell the tritanium at 3 isk or more (but the loss of standing is still a pain, so for me getting 4 millions would not be so high a reward) I really doubt that it was giving out 2 billions unit every day. That would require 1.000 refused mission every day and that missions wasn't so common.
Even thinking that it was the source of 10% of the 4-10 billions unit/day that you cite, that would require 200-500 failed missions every day. As the mission was uncommon and the pick up systems is not always in a convenient position, so most of the time the mission wasn't even accepted, if seem a improbable quantity of failed missions.
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Tasko Pal
Heron Corporation
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Posted - 2008.11.13 12:07:00 -
[20]
Originally by: Venkul Mul
That mission had 2 million unit of tritanium with a collateral of 2 millions. So while I see it being failed to sell the tritanium at 3 isk or more (but the loss of standing is still a pain, so for me getting 4 millions would not be so high a reward) I really doubt that it was giving out 2 billions unit every day. That would require 1.000 refused mission every day and that missions wasn't so common.
Even thinking that it was the source of 10% of the 4-10 billions unit/day that you cite, that would require 200-500 failed missions every day. As the mission was uncommon and the pick up systems is not always in a convenient position, so most of the time the mission wasn't even accepted, if seem a improbable quantity of failed missions.
No, I agree with Tamarana. The mission is rare, but there were an insane number of macrohaulers at the time. A thousand insane industrialist missions per day in some of these regions is not surprising. For these macros, the faction hit was irrelevant compared to the isk from selling the trit.
The numbers are a bit high too. You need to take into account that the mission was to ship 2.5 mil trit and that the volumes above include multiple sales.
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Tamarana
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Posted - 2008.11.15 13:38:00 -
[21]
And the multiple sales was exactly the same quantity the "insane industrialist" yeld or multiples.
We did an insane quantity of isks ferrying the tritanium from low sec stations in the deep to a low sec station one jump from high sec and then using it for capital production and selling it to Jita.
Something like 1-2 billions of tritanium every week.
The limiting factor was the throughput of a single Jump Freighter as we were not able to move more than 32 millions units pf tritanium for jump. Two trips for cycle of the cyno. We cynoed with industrial ships for hours to move a billion of units of tritanium with a JF. Unfortunatly, when we were able to field 2 and then 3 JF  the tritanium mission was killed. 
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