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ferrogel, tulip bulbs, and how it will end

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rubico1337 Caldari nefarious badgers inc	Posted - 2008.12.11 10:04:00 - [1] the current run on the market for ferrogel expecting higher prices in the future due to the exploit is a clear example of pure market speculation based on time sensitive information, an analogous scenario is occurring with the collapse of the housing bubble, speculators would buy houses and take out loans which they could no longer repay, this was not an issue in that they could resell the house in 6 months time and pay of the loan while making a proffit, thus home prices were a self-reinforcing feedback loop, higher prices meant more speculation and higher demand, higher demand meant higher prices. but the demand itself was not linked to the assets worth, but in fact the potential worth at some future point. once the price increase slowed, demand from speculators decrease, meaning decreased home prices, and now the upward spiral turns downward at an accelerating pace resulting an an eventual crash in prices. this is what has happened in the current housing crises, and is a proximate cause for the current financal crises, and it is happening now in the current eve ferrogel market. the current speculation on ferrogel is because of future expectations of decreased supply and thus increased price to to the exploit fix issue, i am not discounting that this could have a significant if not crippling effect on ferrogel and other commmodities and thus the t2 market as a whole, what i am saying is that the extent of the market saturation do to this exploit has remained to be seen, and that those who are most likely responsible for the majority of the exploit might not sell much of the commodity in jita, instead using it for ship construction outside the market for in-corp use. thus even if prices naturally rise to to the decreased supply, the speculation and day trading is not at all tied to the acutal utility of ferrogel, but in fact the future profits for the trader this will end is with an eventual market crash, ferrogel might even go up to 100k at some point. but i give it 4-6 weeks at which point the price for ferrogel will decrease fairly rapidly probably to a point moderately higher than prices where before the announcement so get some popcorn, and caveat emptor Originally by: Blind Man okies so liek when u warp in on them u shod target them... and stuff k.then u FIRE ZE MISSILES and use your heavy nos cause it drain their cap then u click the jhammer and dampenener
Jean Dessaut DEATHFUNK Doctrine.	Posted - 2008.12.11 10:09:00 - [2] And, as with the housing bubble, there will be a few shrewd types who make a fortune off of it, and a whole lot who lose out.
Tasko Pal Heron Corporation	Posted - 2008.12.11 10:16:00 - [3] Not the same. Two big reasons. First, traders aren't highly leveraged. When it actually comes to buy product, you got to pay with cash. Second, the RL examples you give were over considerable periods of time. Tulipmania lasted a couple of years. The housing market jumped from shortly after September 11, 2001 to some point in 2006 through 2008, depending on location. The current speculation is short term, everyone knows more production can come online reducing price modestly over the long term. A better RL example is market panics. Nobody expects the stock market to stay down for more than a few months or years. Neither do they want to be holding the bag at the end of the day. So you can have herdlike behavior worsened by exhaustion of capital for arbitrage and other things that traditionally help keep markets liquid.
rubico1337 Caldari nefarious badgers inc	Posted - 2008.12.11 10:32:00 - [4] Originally by: Tasko Pal Not the same. Two big reasons. First, traders aren't highly leveraged. When it actually comes to buy product, you got to pay with cash. Second, the RL examples you give were over considerable periods of time. Tulipmania lasted a couple of years. The housing market jumped from shortly after September 11, 2001 to some point in 2006 through 2008, depending on location. The current speculation is short term, everyone knows more production can come online reducing price modestly over the long term. A better RL example is market panics. Nobody expects the stock market to stay down for more than a few months or years. Neither do they want to be holding the bag at the end of the day. So you can have herdlike behavior worsened by exhaustion of capital for arbitrage and other things that traditionally help keep markets liquid. i agree its not the same, with the housing crisis when foreclosures started to happen banks started failing, here, a bunch of people will just lose alot of ISK Originally by: Blind Man okies so liek when u warp in on them u shod target them... and stuff k.then u FIRE ZE MISSILES and use your heavy nos cause it drain their cap then u click the jhammer and dampenener
Akita T Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force	Posted - 2008.12.11 10:49:00 - [5] Looking at "The Forge" market history today compared to market history yesterday, up to HALF of the transactions for ferrogel have been reversed and removed from the logs (volume bar now reads 2M on top, yesterday it used to read 4M on top). I'd call that pretty significant... _ Create a character \|\| Fit a ship \|\| Get some ISK
grandool	Posted - 2008.12.11 11:55:00 - [6] how many dyspro moons in eve?
Market Narc	Posted - 2008.12.11 13:20:00 - [7] Originally by: Akita T Looking at "The Forge" market history today compared to market history yesterday, up to HALF of the transactions for ferrogel have been reversed and removed from the logs (volume bar now reads 2M on top, yesterday it used to read 4M on top). I'd call that pretty significant... JFC Akita, you've been here this long, and you still don't know what the **ing market data tab looks like? Remove the tinfoil that's blocking your vision, and look at it again. There is no conspiracy...there is triple** the normal volume showing for the tenth. Over 6m pcs. Learn how to use and read the tools provided before inciting yet more "OMFG CCP H@x0rZ" threads. We have enough sh!t flying around without ppl like you adding to it.
Akita T Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force	Posted - 2008.12.11 13:27:00 - [8] Originally by: Market Narc We have enough sh!t flying around without ppl like you adding to it. But... but... it's fun to mess with people's heads in a time of crysis _ Create a character \|\| Fit a ship \|\| Get some ISK
Market Narc	Posted - 2008.12.11 13:30:00 - [9] Originally by: Akita T Originally by: Market Narc We have enough sh!t flying around without ppl like you adding to it. But... but... it's fun to mess with people's heads in a time of crysis Ok, if you're just trying to mess with ppl, then my respect for you is restored. Readers, plz disregard my posting, Akita is right, there is a conspiracy...being paid to say this? WTF you talking 'bout, Willis?
Gnulpie Minmatar Miner Tech	Posted - 2008.12.11 16:22:00 - [10] Alchemy will become profitable. That means the materials used in alchemy will become more expensive. And of course pos fuel will become also more expensive.
Jean Dessaut DEATHFUNK Doctrine.	Posted - 2008.12.11 17:10:00 - [11] Lol - T2 ship prices are looking completely unaffected. That suggests that all of the other increases (for now, anyway) are due entirely to speculation, and not at all due to tightening supply. In a few weeks, though, as a PvPer, I can see myself crying.
Xabier Amarr THE SORORITY	Posted - 2008.12.11 17:22:00 - [12] Originally by: Jean Dessaut Lol - T2 ship prices are looking completely unaffected. That suggests that all of the other increases (for now, anyway) are due entirely to speculation, and not at all due to tightening supply. In a few weeks, though, as a PvPer, I can see myself crying. Ever looked at the build times for t2 ships? It will take time for prices to adjust, in the meantime purchasing up existing unadjusted stock is one of the better market moves someone could take, of course I'm not going to say which ones ;) Xabiers Capital Bond #1/2 (FINISHED) Xabiers Capital Bond #3/4
Mari Katarin	Posted - 2008.12.11 17:33:00 - [13] I'll ruin it for you. Hulks and other select gallente hulls: e.g. Arazu. Hulks in particular because until the t2 market settles into a new equilibrium the safety and profits will be in humping empire veld. I don't have enough cash to play in that league so you're welcome to my analysis. If you make billions feel free to share the wealth.
Kazzac Elentria	Posted - 2008.12.11 18:45:00 - [14] Originally by: Xabier Originally by: Jean Dessaut Lol - T2 ship prices are looking completely unaffected. That suggests that all of the other increases (for now, anyway) are due entirely to speculation, and not at all due to tightening supply. In a few weeks, though, as a PvPer, I can see myself crying. Ever looked at the build times for t2 ships? It will take time for prices to adjust, in the meantime purchasing up existing unadjusted stock is one of the better market moves someone could take, of course I'm not going to say which ones ;) Again... you had to graduate from the same school of evil
Mace Blackhammer Pwnhammer Hauling and Pizzeria	Posted - 2008.12.11 19:17:00 - [15] Originally by: Jean Dessaut Lol - T2 ship prices are looking completely unaffected. That suggests that all of the other increases (for now, anyway) are due entirely to speculation, and not at all due to tightening supply. People are already buying t2 ships up theres 1 only nighthawk for sale in the forge atm
Recon Jack	Posted - 2008.12.11 19:20:00 - [16] In general, smaller hull ships would be the safest play. They usually run at the tightest margins already so have lower to fall in a worst case and a smaller isk change will give you a bigger percent change for an increase. I've picked up some inties and af's myself and may look to add dictors if it looks like prices are starting to jump. I saw a screeny from another forum where a guy who just got banned showed a screeny of the setup they used and they were running hexite and ferrogel so they could also be good plays since you can assume supply has gone down now. It's scrapheap if anyone wants to read up.
Dragonz Fire The Graduates Morsus Mihi	Posted - 2008.12.11 19:30:00 - [17] at one point all cap recharger and DCU t2s were bought up. i wonder when things like nanoelectrical microprocessors and tesseract capacitor units and the things that make up this stuff will go up in price too ^_^.
Jean Dessaut DEATHFUNK Doctrine.	Posted - 2008.12.11 20:27:00 - [18] Originally by: Dragonz Fire at one point all cap recharger and DCU t2s were bought up. i wonder when things like nanoelectrical microprocessors and tesseract capacitor units and the things that make up this stuff will go up in price too ^_^. I haven't checked those components specifically, but most of the components and reaction products I did look at were already trading at least 20-30% up on the prices from the week before. The ships are going more slowly, but that is the logical next step.
Kazzac Elentria	Posted - 2008.12.11 22:35:00 - [19] Edited by: Kazzac Elentria on 11/12/2008 22:35:27 Originally by: Jean Dessaut Originally by: Dragonz Fire at one point all cap recharger and DCU t2s were bought up. i wonder when things like nanoelectrical microprocessors and tesseract capacitor units and the things that make up this stuff will go up in price too ^_^. I haven't checked those components specifically, but most of the components and reaction products I did look at were already trading at least 20-30% up on the prices from the week before. The ships are going more slowly, but that is the logical next step. If you're a consumer of the items. If you're a trader, you'd start working your way down the production line... not up. *edited cause I fail at grammar
Mara Rinn Minmatar	Posted - 2008.12.12 04:28:00 - [20] My prediction is that small corp POS will start sprouting up all over lowsec. This will cause more yarr action for pirates, more moon material manufacture, more neophytes to scam, more wars to declare... it's nothing but good news all around, from my perspective.
Kazzac Elentria	Posted - 2008.12.12 04:33:00 - [21] Originally by: Mara Rinn My prediction is that small corp POS will start sprouting up all over lowsec. This will cause more yarr action for pirates, more moon material manufacture, more neophytes to scam, more wars to declare... it's nothing but good news all around, from my perspective. Agreed. Feels like 2005 all over again
Brock Nelson Caldari Flux Technologies Inc	Posted - 2008.12.12 05:33:00 - [22] Why bother declaring war if moon mining/reaction is all in low-sec? 10% for Returning Customers
J Tang	Posted - 2008.12.12 07:20:00 - [23] I wish there was a way of short selling these commodities so we could take advantage of the bubble on the down-turn.
Tasko Pal Heron Corporation	Posted - 2008.12.12 07:54:00 - [24] Thinking about it, I just don't see a bubble worth the name at this time. There's too much smart money in the market and alchemy provides some options that I think help calm the dyspro/prom markets.
Minny Sky	Posted - 2008.12.12 10:02:00 - [25] It's not the same. These people introduced an amount of materials to the game that couldnt otherwise be here, not even close.
Akita T Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force	Posted - 2008.12.12 10:09:00 - [26] Originally by: Tasko Pal alchemy provides some options that I think help calm the dyspro/prom markets. Only when dyspro prices go closer to 40x-50x cadmium prices (and cadmium prices are also bound to quickly rise to compensate, so the profitability window is quite thin)... and I doubt anybody will actually bother with prom-replacement-alchemy at all. _ Create a character \|\| Fit a ship \|\| Get some ISK
Joss Sparq Caldari ANZAC ALLIANCE Southern Cross Alliance	Posted - 2008.12.12 10:23:00 - [27] Edited by: Joss Sparq on 12/12/2008 10:23:51 Originally by: Tasko Pal There's too much smart money in the market and alchemy provides some options that I think help calm the dyspro/prom markets. Smart money, perhaps. But I'd stake my ISK on the probability of a magic unicorn that farts rainbow candy before I place high expectations on Alchemy. EDIT: I see I had this particular window open longer than I thought, and Akita T has clearly beaten me to the punch!
Mara Rinn Minmatar	Posted - 2008.12.13 11:13:00 - [28] Originally by: Joss Sparq But I'd stake my ISK on the probability of a magic unicorn that farts rainbow candy before I place high expectations on Alchemy. How about a magic unicorn that get's his kidney nicked after being rolled in Candy Mountain? Alchemy was not commercially viable in the POS exploited Ferrogel market. What are the odds that the quantity of Ferrogel being synthesised from raw vacuum was greater than 20 times the quantity that would otherwise have existed? How much Ferrogel do folks like Goons and BoB have stashed away? How long until supplies of the stuff actually dry up? Too many unknowns are frying my brain. Back to licking big salty rocks while watching everyone else cry that their T2 combat drones have doubled in price.
Joss Sparq Caldari ANZAC ALLIANCE Southern Cross Alliance	Posted - 2008.12.13 12:22:00 - [29] Originally by: Mara Rinn Originally by: Joss Sparq But I'd stake my ISK on the probability of a magic unicorn that farts rainbow candy before I place high expectations on Alchemy. How about a magic unicorn that get's his kidney nicked after being rolled in Candy Mountain? That was ... horrible Please, don't ever do that again
Wasdasjetzt	Posted - 2008.12.13 13:22:00 - [30] There are about 200 Dys moons in eve +/- 20 We have at least 70 accounts banned, some of them were running up to 10 posses, lets say every account had 5 posses with 2 reactions each produicing high ends like ferrogel. So there were another virtually 700 dys (reactionwise) moons. Now they are gone and cant replaced with new moons cause there are no free dys moons :) So do math yourself what will happen

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