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ferrogel, tulip bulbs, and how it will end

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Dragonz Fire The Graduates Morsus Mihi	Posted - 2008.12.13 14:02:00 - [31] things like hexite and mercury are just now gradually increasing in price. i guess they didnt have a crazy jump like ferrogel+ dysp + t2 ships and all that good stuff cuz people werent thinking about them. mercury is used in the alchemy process to make dysporite.
Jayyne Cobb	Posted - 2008.12.13 15:17:00 - [32] Originally by: Joss Sparq Edited by: Joss Sparq on 12/12/2008 10:23:51 Originally by: Tasko Pal There's too much smart money in the market and alchemy provides some options that I think help calm the dyspro/prom markets. Smart money, perhaps. But I'd stake my ISK on the probability of a magic unicorn that farts rainbow candy before I place high expectations on Alchemy. EDIT: I see I had this particular window open longer than I thought, and Akita T has clearly beaten me to the punch! I have a t-shirt that shows an unicorn crapping out star-shaped marshmallows from a cloud in the sky, and rejoicing domo-kun looking characters below yelling "MARSHMALLOWS!" being rained upon with their sugary goodness. The unicorn also looks like he's constipated. /me gonna do alchemy anyways
PuRuSkA	Posted - 2008.12.13 17:47:00 - [33] Originally by: Dragonz Fire things like hexite and mercury are just now gradually increasing in price. i guess they didnt have a crazy jump like ferrogel+ dysp + t2 ships and all that good stuff cuz people werent thinking about them. mercury is used in the alchemy process to make dysporite. yeah but you get back 95 of the 100 used mercury per hours so actualy the price bump could not be really great
rubico1337 Caldari nefarious badgers inc	Posted - 2008.12.13 18:38:00 - [34] my original assumption was that the impact on the supply of moon minerals would be marginal, im beginning to think that might have been the wrong assumtion after the CCP post. either way, the next couple of weeks will be very volatile, there are so many unknowns btw, which corps were effectively shut down? MM, BoB, goons? Originally by: Blind Man okies so liek when u warp in on them u shod target them... and stuff k.then u FIRE ZE MISSILES and use your heavy nos cause it drain their cap then u click the jhammer and dampenener
Chssmius Capital Support	Posted - 2008.12.14 02:44:00 - [35] I would really be interested to hear from the good Doctor in the post inflationary period we are entering. I think it will be simply fascinating. On the other hand, it will be "interesting" times in the near future. If inspiration is the mother of invention, then adversity is the illegitimate father of profit. Take The EvE Personality Test today!
Tiirae The New Era HUZZAH FEDERATION	Posted - 2008.12.14 03:17:00 - [36] Originally by: Chssmius I would really be interested to hear from the good Doctor in the post inflationary period we are entering. I think it will be simply fascinating. On the other hand, it will be "interesting" times in the near future. If inspiration is the mother of invention, then adversity is the illegitimate father of profit. If the 'good doctor' has any sense and self-respect he'll quit. he's been utterly clueless about this game ever since he was hired. Alchemy isn't going to acheive anything except put a luicrously high cap on dyspro and prom prices. Much higher than we've ever seen. If it takes 20 times as long to produce the same end product, anyone producing at any volume will set up 20 times as man poses. Think about the logistics of maintaining 20 poses instead of just one. In order to be any use, you are going to have to have all this set up and running well in advance of prom/dysp reaching these theoretical price limits. other wise by the time you've got your product to market some other factor is likely to arise; there's just too much risk. Someone will have to have all the resources and logisitics to run 20 poses just sitting there idle until it's suddenly worthwhile. There's far too much risk of other factors rendering the whole operation useless for anyone to actually do it. However, if you were prepared to take a big gamble, you would set up those 20 poses now and start the reactions now, and just keep stockpiling until prices reached the point where it was profitable. I just can't see anyone tying up that much isk and other resources for so long where there's a prety good chance the payoff will never come. A multiplier of 5x might have been more appropriate, I don't know.
Treelox Amarr Market Jihadist Revolutionary Party	Posted - 2008.12.14 03:25:00 - [37] Originally by: Tiirae If the 'good doctor' has any sense and self-respect he'll quit. he's been utterly clueless about this game ever since he was hired. While I dont disagree with your conculsion of the "good doctor", he would be a fool to quit. Look at all the free trips off iceland he has gotten to go to all sorts of gaming conventions in the last +year. Cant beat free travel, even if your direct consumer base thinks your a twit. -- Chribba's LoveQuest 17:00hrs Dec. 20th (Prizes!!)
Kazzac Elentria	Posted - 2008.12.14 04:19:00 - [38] Originally by: Treelox Originally by: Tiirae If the 'good doctor' has any sense and self-respect he'll quit. he's been utterly clueless about this game ever since he was hired. While I dont disagree with your conculsion of the "good doctor", he would be a fool to quit. Look at all the free trips off iceland he has gotten to go to all sorts of gaming conventions in the last +year. Cant beat free travel, even if your direct consumer base thinks your a twit. What I find amusing is that since the hiring of an economic adviser, the constant issues we raise here and elsewhere have actually gotten attention. Case in point with Alchemy, shuttle removals, etc... What I find disheartening is that the mechanics put in place to affect changes to these issues have been sorely out in left field.
Treelox Amarr Market Jihadist Revolutionary Party	Posted - 2008.12.14 04:49:00 - [39] Edited by: Treelox on 14/12/2008 04:50:12 Originally by: Kazzac Elentria What I find amusing is that since the hiring of an economic adviser, the constant issues we raise here and elsewhere have actually gotten attention. Case in point with Alchemy, shuttle removals, etc... What I find disheartening is that the mechanics put in place to affect changes to these issues have been sorely out in left field. Which means that the "good doctor" has either no concept how things work in game, has lousy long range forcast abilities, is not listened too, is not influence on these changes that might of already been in action prior to his arrival, or some combination of all of the above. --- made my point a bit more understandable. -- Chribba's LoveQuest 17:00hrs Dec. 20th (Prizes!!)
Chssmius Capital Support	Posted - 2008.12.14 07:52:00 - [40] Edited by: Chssmius on 14/12/2008 07:54:04 Originally by: Kazzac Elentria What I find amusing is that since the hiring of an economic adviser, the constant issues we raise here and elsewhere have actually gotten attention. Case in point with Alchemy, shuttle removals, etc... What I find disheartening is that the mechanics put in place to affect changes to these issues have been sorely out in left field. Which means that the "good doctor" has either no concept how things work in game, has lousy long range forcast abilities, is not listened too, *is not [influential enough]* on these changes that might of already been in action prior to his arrival*, or some combination of all of the above. --- made my point a bit more understandable. I put what I think is the most correct in bold. Compare his devblog on Alchemy to what was actually implemented, then consider CCP's history of overzealous "adjustments" either buff or nerf. It seems almost like there is some invisible council of nerf that presides over almost every final decision in eve. My original post was intended to express my curiosity for the inevitable charts, figures, and data for how the economy will shift and morph to compensate for these drastic changes. I was skirting the issue of apparent negligence. Besides, even though someone should have noticed something like this if they were looking over the data and knew certain critical information, why look for something that shouldn't be when it has "apparently" never been. Like looking for a live talking salt water fish in middle of the Sahara, you know it shouldn't exist so no one bothers looking(except the mad and driven). For example, it is only possible to make X of Y in a given period of time because of hard limits on the # of moons for which Y exists. Knowing that only X of Y is possible is one thing, knowing the value of X is something else. This is especially understandable if the rumors are true and this has been going on for almost as long as there have been POSes. All it takes is one bad unchecked assumption back at the beginning and everything you can compare against sense is skewed. Yes, this issue is a HUGE oversight, but it is an understandable* oversight. And with that I will accept whatever gall you have for me, and willingly sacrifice what infinitesimal and useless credit I have. This is a GAME's economy we are talking about, a very serious, very hard game but still a game. I am interested in how this turns out because I am a geek, economics have always fascinated me, and the virtual world provides near endless risk free opportunities. Imagine what would happen if all the counterfeit money in the world was suddenly removed. Or better yet, imagine if Saudi Arabia had been selling faked barrels of oil for decades and no-one found out until someone opened up a barrel of the strategic reserve to find it empty(assuming all of the barrels were "Saudi Oil"). Neither analogy is perfect but I hope it gets my meaning across. EDIT: FOR GREAT JUSTICE...and spelling. Take The EvE Personality Test today!
Tasko Pal Heron Corporation	Posted - 2008.12.14 09:31:00 - [41] Originally by: Treelox Which means that the "good doctor" has either no concept how things work in game, has lousy long range forcast abilities, is not listened too, is not influence on these changes that might of already been in action prior to his arrival, or some combination of all of the above. I thought every economist had those features installed by default.
Cheopis Amarr One Stop Mining Shop One Stop Research	Posted - 2008.12.14 10:03:00 - [42] Edited by: Cheopis on 14/12/2008 10:04:22 Originally by: Treelox Edited by: Treelox on 14/12/2008 04:50:12 Originally by: Kazzac Elentria What I find amusing is that since the hiring of an economic adviser, the constant issues we raise here and elsewhere have actually gotten attention. Case in point with Alchemy, shuttle removals, etc... What I find disheartening is that the mechanics put in place to affect changes to these issues have been sorely out in left field. Which means that the "good doctor" has either no concept how things work in game, has lousy long range forcast abilities, is not listened too, is not influence on these changes that might of already been in action prior to his arrival, or some combination of all of the above. --- made my point a bit more understandable. It might also be that his input is listened to, then discarded in favor of other ideas. Just because there is an economist on the team, doesn't mean he's part of the actual decision-making process.
Tiirae The New Era HUZZAH FEDERATION	Posted - 2008.12.14 14:53:00 - [43] I do have some sympathy for him; real-world economists have to deal with a system of such complexity that having confidence in your predictions is all but impossible; usually the best they can do is make a prediction and then give some estimate of how much they could be wrong. I think when this guy was offered this gig he thought 'great, a limited system, should be easy to model and make predictions about with 90% accuracy'. it seems that even Eve's limited economy is too complex for our feeble human minds. And I don't think he's thrilled about all the free trips to gaming conferences; I got the impression that the economic community thinks his job is all a bit of a joke, so he's not getting any respect from his peers either. May as well break out the Fibonacci sequence and the ****-flinging-monkey, two standards that have been as accurate over time as any sophisticated economic model.
Draxus Grado Caldari Caldari Dragon	Posted - 2008.12.15 12:11:00 - [44] Originally by: Chssmius For example, it is only possible to make X of Y in a given period of time because of hard limits on the # of moons for which Y exists. Knowing that only X of Y is possible is one thing, knowing the value of X is something else. This is especially understandable if the rumors are true and this has been going on for almost as long as there have been POSes. All it takes is one bad unchecked assumption back at the beginning and everything you can compare against sense is skewed. This exactly the kind of discrepancy that should have been caught, which to me screams that we actually need more fulltime eyes on the economy of EVE, a larger team to catch unusual flows of cash and/or material. (And to provide us with more of interesting insights on the markets) Considering that bugs like these are bound to exist and even be created anew (Just how many more there are affecting the economy right now? None or several? I think somewhere inbetween..) For this particular exploit there is no other way to solve it except punish those involved.. the option just to reset economy on some level does not exist, nor to take away or add something to market. This is the game we are left with. So we should have further safeguards in place. I want to have confidence that CCP will catch similar exploits in the future, currently I am not convinced.
Midas Man Caldari Dzark Asylum	Posted - 2008.12.15 14:17:00 - [45] Edited by: Midas Man on 15/12/2008 14:17:02 Originally by: Wasdasjetzt There are about 200 Dys moons in eve +/- 20 We have at least 70 accounts banned, some of them were running up to 10 posses, lets say every account had 5 posses with 2 reactions each produicing high ends like ferrogel. So there were another virtually 700 dys (reactionwise) moons. Now they are gone and cant replaced with new moons cause there are no free dys moons :) So do math yourself what will happen hmmmm....whose bought big into the dyps manipulation. It is impossible that someone not in a corp or alliance could have any POS's producing anything. Nice attempt at forcing the dyps price up more though
Talsha Talamar Amarr Nebula Rasa Holdings Nebula Rasa	Posted - 2008.12.15 15:02:00 - [46] Actually I have the feeling that the people still playing the market, are in for a very sharp and ugly wake up call after the CSM minutes are released. If the numbers I crunched based on the information from the chat, prices on Components using Ferrogel should not see a sustained increase of more than 15% to 30%, depending on the role it plays in their composition. The final product prices should go up even less once the market has stabilized. Yet the informations were limited and investigations are still going on, so one never knows.
Akita T Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force	Posted - 2008.12.16 05:27:00 - [47] "exploit as being possible (code wise) from at least February 2007 [...] able to confirm exploits starting in March 2008, with the bulk of it becoming operational in May/June 2008" Told you the prices started moving in a verry funny way 5-ish months ago "rough estimates: Roughly 35% of the Ferrogel market [...] the primary materials being produced were Dysporite, Fermionic Condensates, Ferrofluid, Ferrogel and Prometium. Ferrogel was by far the most exploited material [...] the only plan for now is to monitor the situation and make sure there will not be a shortage of goods. Shortage = absolute shortage, i.e. product not available" Translation : see thread above - everything we said in here BEFORE the CSM meeting is pretty much still standing just as written initially. _ Create a character \|\| Fit a ship \|\| Get some ISK
Lexander Morinex Caldari LDD Investments	Posted - 2008.12.16 06:00:00 - [48] Originally by: Treelox Which means that the "good doctor" has either no concept how things work in game, has lousy long range forcast abilities, is not listened too, is not influence on these changes that might of already been in action prior to his arrival, or some combination of all of the above. I am Statistician, not an Economist, but I do feel I can comment a little about the "good doctor". He seems to be committing a very common error amongst data analysts. These large databases are prone to 'fishing expeditions' and other tricky data mining problems. There is a lot of random noise in a big database, and it is typical to generate lots of different metrics, meaningful or not. But in the end, the data you generate is only as good as the subject matter expertise that drives it. In my current dissertation work we deal with low-level gene microarrays. I have spent countless hours pouring over chart after chart, often to find out that what seems so important to me is completely obvious to the biologist. It is a collaborative process, and the 'good doctor' seems to not spend enough time studying what players find to be important. I am not convinced this kind of exploit would be discovered with the current information. With the sheer amount of white noise in the system, an exploit of this type can get missed. Even if one or two results showed up as significant, there is the deeper problem that the Type I (false positive) error rate is just too high for practical use. Unless the information can be filtered with expertise about the game, the statistical analysis is going to be useless. The deeper concern I have is not that this exploit was 'missed', so much as the fact that the economic situation as a whole is not properly evaluated. The numbers coming out of the economic reports say very little about the player experience and a lot about a bunch of numbers. In statistics there is a distinction made between statistical significance (a result unlikely to happen by chance) and practical significance. Too many of the results shown in the economic reports have very little practical significance. Traditional economic measures are no substitute for a deeper understanding of an online economy. Just because the metric meant something in the real world does not make it useful in the game. The 'good doctor' is producing a lot of metrics that might be useful to real life bankers but are essentially useless to players. It is rather sad to see that much intellectual brainpower essentially wasted chasing the wrong problem. - Lexander Morinex
Ludmia Houliakan	Posted - 2008.12.16 17:28:00 - [49] Originally by: Akita T "exploit as being possible (code wise) from at least February 2007 [...] able to confirm exploits starting in March 2008, with the bulk of it becoming operational in May/June 2008" Told you the prices started moving in a verry funny way 5-ish months ago "rough estimates: Roughly 35% of the Ferrogel market [...] the primary materials being produced were Dysporite, Fermionic Condensates, Ferrofluid, Ferrogel and Prometium. Ferrogel was by far the most exploited material [...] the only plan for now is to monitor the situation and make sure there will not be a shortage of goods. Shortage = absolute shortage, i.e. product not available" Translation : see thread above - everything we said in here BEFORE the CSM meeting is pretty much still standing just as written initially. I love the way you are trying to influence the market. But let us face it, 35% is more than anybody's guess in this thread, and this is an insane proportion of the ferrogel sold. At a point it means 35% less t2 ships on market. The CSM meeting report was sent late in the night, but now EU traders are loging and jita prices just started exploding again.
Kazzac Elentria	Posted - 2008.12.16 18:09:00 - [50] Originally by: Akita T "exploit as being possible (code wise) from at least February 2007 [...] able to confirm exploits starting in March 2008, with the bulk of it becoming operational in May/June 2008" Told you the prices started moving in a verry funny way 5-ish months ago "rough estimates: Roughly 35% of the Ferrogel market [...] the primary materials being produced were Dysporite, Fermionic Condensates, Ferrofluid, Ferrogel and Prometium. Ferrogel was by far the most exploited material [...] the only plan for now is to monitor the situation and make sure there will not be a shortage of goods. Shortage = absolute shortage, i.e. product not available" Translation : see thread above - everything we said in here BEFORE the CSM meeting is pretty much still standing just as written initially. I feel vindicated now when I got scoffed at for calling anywhere from 30-50 of the market came out of thin air.
Fitz VonHeise The New Order.	Posted - 2008.12.16 20:34:00 - [51] The day after this happened I put in my two cents to my alliance about one aspect that most people would not have thought of: Oxygen Isotopes. I told them to sell all their oxy iso now. I read one estimate that the Galante towers being used for this exploit was costing about 50b isk per month. I can't imagin these people were mining it... they are exploiters why do that. So they have do buy it. So if you have 50+ billion isk less buyers of a product your going to have a glut on the market and prices will go down drastically. Was I right? I noticed all iso seemed to be dropping but last I looked oxygen was dropping faster then all of them.
Roemy Schneider BINFORD	Posted - 2008.12.20 13:03:00 - [52] there was an update in the news yesterday, speaking "178 starbases that were exploiting this issue" assuming each had one ferrogel output, that would be ~1.7m ferrogel each day. or maybe half an the other half going for fermionics. anyways, i still find 800k a LOT when looking at 2mil daily volume in jita - and i'm sure a mentionable part was reselling. looking at the jita graph.... may i deliberately estimate an average of... 22k for the past year? if all towers had indeed been ferrogel'ing; 22k * 178 * 400 = about 1.5billion an hour = about 37b a day throw in any argument you want; it wasnt all one corp, thats ideal numbers, jita does so many trillions isk a day... but you cant tell me that 30+ bil a f* day isnt much -.- - putting the gist back into logistics
Tasko Pal Heron Corporation	Posted - 2008.12.20 16:22:00 - [53] Originally by: Roemy Schneider throw in any argument you want; it wasnt all one corp, thats ideal numbers, jita does so many trillions isk a day... but you cant tell me that 30+ bil a f* day isnt much -.- 30+ bil a day isn't much in a market of trillions a day.
Roemy Schneider BINFORD	Posted - 2008.12.21 00:41:00 - [54] if you could undock in your lump of pure ferrogel that'd be true... - putting the gist back into logistics
Tasko Pal Heron Corporation	Posted - 2008.12.21 02:39:00 - [55] Originally by: Roemy Schneider if you could undock in your lump of pure ferrogel that'd be true... Woosh, what was that about? Were you talking to someone?
Sheerborn Minmatar Native Freshfood	Posted - 2009.01.30 02:14:00 - [56] /necro 2 months later the tulip is still growing. ----------- Evil is a point of view. God kills indiscriminately and so shall we. For no creatures under God are as we are, none so like him as ourselves. -----------
Tasko Pal Heron Corporation	Posted - 2009.01.30 18:27:00 - [57] The tulip needs grow a lot more before I get excited. Little idea on whether T3 helps or hinders. More dyspro and prom moons, but more long term customers for T2 too. And T3 might suck up a lot of these moon minerals as well.

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