| Pages: [1] :: one page |
|
|
| Author |
Thread Statistics | Show CCP posts - 0 post(s) |
XFreedomX
   |
Posted - 2009.01.23 23:55:00 -
[1]
First, I am making this post simply from the perspective of the audience and wishing everyone understand how the format works so good teams don't get cut because they mis-understood the format.
Week 1.
At the end of week 1 32 teams will be 1-0 and 32 teams will be 0-1
32 1-0 teams will be ranked 1-32 based on points they score (kills). Doesn't matter how much points you lose.
32 0-1 teams will be ranked 33-64 based on points they score (kills). Again, losses don't matter.
Week 2.
32 1-0 team play each other with rank 1 vs 2, 3 vs 4 etc.
32 0-1 team play each other with rank 33 vs 34, 35 vs 36 etc.
The result will be 16 teams 2-0, 32 teams 1-1, 16 teams 0-2.
2-0 teams are in
0-2 teams are out.
1-1 teams ranked by combine kill point and the top 16 are in.
What does this mean?
A team with the ability to score lots of kill points only need to win 1 out of the 2 game to be in.
A team with good tank but not much firepower need to win both match to be in.
Hope I won't hear whinning about the rules after the first two week. 
|
Rajere
No Trademark
Notoriety Alliance
|
Posted - 2009.01.24 06:15:00 -
[2]
Edited by: Rajere on 24/01/2009 06:23:46
And what that means is, barring an opponent pulling out some benny hilling interceptors and the other team failing to bring a counter to it, the Top 32 teams will with very little exceptions all be sat at 125 points, and the 32 winners will be ranked by some other arbitrary standard. The bottom 32 teams will all be sat somewhere between 0 and theoretically, up to 97 points, though in most cases 0-50 is a better estimate.
The winning 32 teams will face each other, 16 will win and automatically make it into the finals. 16 will lose and will combine their 125 points from round one with the points they scored from round 2. 125 + x. These are teams who beat a bad team and lost to a good team.
The bottom 32 teams will face each other, 16 will lose and automatically be out of the running. 16 will win and will combine their 0-50 points from round one with the points they scored from round 2. 0-50 + 125. These are teams who lost to a good team and beat a bad team.
Statistically speaking, Good luck. My gut tells me that who you randomly drew for your first match, and if you win, who you were arbitrarily assigned to fight in your second match, will have more to do with who makes the bottom 16 (of 32) teams that make the finals.
--------------------------
NOTR
Sig removed, inappropriate content. If you would like further details please mail [email protected] - Mitnal |
XFreedomX
|
Posted - 2009.01.26 17:24:00 -
[3]
Here is a recap of week one and the effect on teams chances
32 teams with 1-0 record
26 teams (125 pts) - Win and advance, lose with 80 pts scored will advance.
3 teams (>=115) - Win and advance, lose with 90 pts will advance.
2 with 105 pts - Win and advance, lose with 99 pts will advance
Only The Interbus can be locked out if the lose with 99 pts scored (extremely unlikely)
32 teams with 0-1 record
Only Molotov Coalition is quaranteed advance with a win.
Top 10 team with 0-1 record has reasonable chance to advance with a win.
All other team has almost zero chance even with a win (start praying).
|
Lucai
Jericho Fraction
The Star Fraction
|
Posted - 2009.01.26 18:06:00 -
[4]
Edited by: Lucai on 26/01/2009 18:16:08
While your estimates for the 1 win - 1 loss teams may hold true for a worst case scenario (getting in despite everybody who won the first match scoring above 80 points while losing), its in my opinion not very realistic.
Looking e.g. at the 12 best losers of the first match the points are 81, 73, 72, 65, 58, 56, 52, 46, 46, 30, 30, 26.
Probably roughly 6-8 of them will win the second scoring 125 points, lets even say 8.
The 16 winners of the first match that lose the second one will probably score comparable points by losing as the losers of the first round, ranging from 0-80. (there is lots of rock/paper/scissors involved, having one win at the moment doesnt really prevent people from losing badly next weekend).
So as a rough estimate we will have 16-24 teams with one 125 win and a loss with roughly the distribution above in the end.
The lowest ones drop out, and about 40 points, +-10, (or a total of 165+-10) will probably be the requirement to make it for the 1-1 teams.
|
XFreedomX
|
Posted - 2009.01.26 18:33:00 -
[5]
I think we are saying the same thing.
I stated that the top 10 teams on the losing side has a reasonable chance to advance should they win.
The interesting effect of the swiss system is that the top score team for the 0-1 team will play each other.
This means that the 8 winner of the top 16 team assuming 125 points or close to it on their wins will have more points then the bottom 16 teams. Teams with less then 20 pts need to hope that less then 8 teams on the win side will lose with less points then they did on the first day. How likely is that?
Statistically speaking, of the teams with 1-1 record at the end of week 2, 12 will be from the win side and 4 from the losing side with the 4 from the losing side coming from the top 10 teams from the losing side. However, higher number will come from the win side if they all fit their ships for max kill.
|
Lucai
Jericho Fraction
The Star Fraction
|
Posted - 2009.01.26 18:40:00 -
[6]
Edited by: Lucai on 26/01/2009 18:41:47
Yep, we do agree on the assessment of chances for the teams having one loss so far. I just disagree on the 80-90 points needed for the teams that won one match so far, in case they lose the second, thinking its more like 30-50.
And yep, i also agree that at least some of the teams that won the first match will probably go for heavy dps, not trying to win perfectly and elegantly, but instead trying to win or at least inflict heavy losses while going down.
|
XFreedomX
|
Posted - 2009.01.27 14:46:00 -
[7]
Here is something to help the audience when watching the next round of matches...
Matches on the winning side:
1 Winner advance.
2 Loser if they score 0 points is out, anthing higher has chance to advance, over 40 very good chance and over 80 is automatic.
Matches on the losing side:
1 Loser is out
2 Winner needs to score max points and have enough teams on the win side score less then their own first round score equal to advance. How many depends on their (rank - 32)/2 (assuming all winner score max point or very close to it)
Example:
KIA needs to win with max points and have (52 - 32）/ 2 = 10 teams lose with less then 10 points scored to advance. Good luck KIA. |
KIAEddZ
Caldari
KIA Corp
KIA Alliance
|
Posted - 2009.01.27 15:11:00 -
[8]
If KIA win, I am fairly confident it will mean a place in the TV finals for them/us.
There will be plenty of teams that won their first match taht lose thier second with less than 10 points scored, and there will be teams above us also losing.
I think your first staement of only the top 10 from the loosers having any chance is misguided at best.
|
XFreedomX
|
Posted - 2009.01.27 18:11:00 -
[9]
 Originally by: KIAEddZ
If KIA win, I am fairly confident it will mean a place in the TV finals for them/us.
There will be plenty of teams that won their first match taht lose thier second with less than 10 points scored, and there will be teams above us also losing.
I think your first staement of only the top 10 from the loosers having any chance is misguided at best.
First, let me say that KIA was selected as an example because they are well know and still have a chance to advance. It is not meant as a flame intentionally.
Second, I am hoping that KIA make it also. Your commentary have been entertaining and even more so when KIA are in it.
However, you do need to be more objective as a commentator imo.
Example:
The Minmatar Faction Warfare team to which you refered to as utter trash in terms of performance and have no chance of advancing has...
1. Better chance then KIA should they win the next round.
2. Fielded a better setup then KIA
3. Went against a better setup vs them then KIA did.
4. Performed better in the match then KIA
5. Should they advance to the TV round, fought better opposition then KIA will have (Notoriety and Soloar vs The Bastards and Attrocitas) |
Jedziah
The Bastards
|
Posted - 2009.01.27 18:21:00 -
[10]
Originally by: XFreedomX
Originally by: KIAEddZ
If KIA win, I am fairly confident it will mean a place in the TV finals for them/us.
There will be plenty of teams that won their first match taht lose thier second with less than 10 points scored, and there will be teams above us also losing.
I think your first staement of only the top 10 from the loosers having any chance is misguided at best.
First, let me say that KIA was selected as an example because they are well know and still have a chance to advance. It is not meant as a flame intentionally.
Second, I am hoping that KIA make it also. Your commentary have been entertaining and even more so when KIA are in it.
However, you do need to be more objective as a commentator imo.
Example:
The Minmatar Faction Warfare team to which you refered to as utter trash in terms of performance and have no chance of advancing has...
1. Better chance then KIA should they win the next round.
2. Fielded a better setup then KIA
3. Went against a better setup vs them then KIA did.
4. Performed better in the match then KIA
5. Should they advance to the TV round, fought better opposition then KIA will have (Notoriety and Soloar vs The Bastards and Attrocitas)
Not to be picky at all, but I am sure Eddz will agree somewhat. Saying that a team went against a 'better' setup is entirely your opinion and you cannot possibly expect to pull that off as some kind of semi-factual evidence.
The Bastards fielded a setup which we thought would blow KIA out of the water with what we had expected them to field on the open day of a tournament. To our surprise, it probably turned out better than expected in combination with the opposing pilot error. Nonetheless, Eddz has already said that those errors aside, it still would have been a fight biased in our favour.
Once you come up with a setup that trounces an Ishtar team in just over 2 minutes then I will allow you to use such a comment as fact. You only fight what is in front of you and no setup will 'win the tournament'.
|
|
|
XFreedomX
|
Posted - 2009.01.27 18:33:00 -
[11]
Edited by: XFreedomX on 27/01/2009 18:35:34
Edited by: XFreedomX on 27/01/2009 18:33:30
Originally by: Jedziah
Originally by: XFreedomX
Originally by: KIAEddZ
If KIA win, I am fairly confident it will mean a place in the TV finals for them/us.
There will be plenty of teams that won their first match taht lose thier second with less than 10 points scored, and there will be teams above us also losing.
I think your first staement of only the top 10 from the loosers having any chance is misguided at best.
First, let me say that KIA was selected as an example because they are well know and still have a chance to advance. It is not meant as a flame intentionally.
Second, I am hoping that KIA make it also. Your commentary have been entertaining and even more so when KIA are in it.
However, you do need to be more objective as a commentator imo.
Example:
The Minmatar Faction Warfare team to which you refered to as utter trash in terms of performance and have no chance of advancing has...
1. Better chance then KIA should they win the next round.
2. Fielded a better setup then KIA
3. Went against a better setup vs them then KIA did.
4. Performed better in the match then KIA
5. Should they advance to the TV round, fought better opposition then KIA will have (Notoriety and Soloar vs The Bastards and Attrocitas)
Not to be picky at all, but I am sure Eddz will agree somewhat. Saying that a team went against a 'better' setup is entirely your opinion and you cannot possibly expect to pull that off as some kind of semi-factual evidence.
The Bastards fielded a setup which we thought would blow KIA out of the water with what we had expected them to field on the open day of a tournament. To our surprise, it probably turned out better than expected in combination with the opposing pilot error. Nonetheless, Eddz has already said that those errors aside, it still would have been a fight biased in our favour.
Once you come up with a setup that trounces an Ishtar team in just over 2 minutes then I will allow you to use such a comment as fact. You only fight what is in front of you and no setup will 'win the tournament'.
I retract statement #3 and #5 in the interest of keeping this from deteriating into a mud slinging thread．
|
GabrIeI Night
|
Posted - 2009.01.29 12:33:00 -
[12]
So out of the bottom 32, 16 can go through depending how many kills they get over this weekend?
What are the chances of the teams that didnt kill anything in the first round? I assume odds will be greatley against them as they need to kill more ships this weekend than the other 31 teams combined from the last qualifier. |
Tyrrax Thorrk
Amarr
Guiding Hand Social Club
Otherworld Empire Productions
|
Posted - 2009.01.29 12:39:00 -
[13]
Edited by: Tyrrax Thorrk on 29/01/2009 12:42:20
Originally by: GabrIeI Night
So out of the bottom 32, 16 can go through depending how many kills they get over this weekend?
What are the chances of the teams that didnt kill anything in the first round? I assume odds will be greatley against them as they need to kill more ships this weekend than the other 31 teams combined from the last qualifier.
The teams that didn't kill anything basically have no chance at all of going through.
Most of the top 16 loser teams chances aren't that great either tbh since they're competing with the 16 teams that'll lose their next match but already have one win.
I'd say any loser team with over 28 points (28 being the average points number losing teams got in first weekend) has a decent chance of advancing if they get 125 points in their next match, anyone below needs to start praying ;P
So that's 11 out of the 32 losers that have a decent chance..
|
csebal
HUN Corp.
HUN Reloaded
|
Posted - 2009.01.29 14:09:00 -
[14]
Lets take a look at it:
16 teams with 2 wins. and 16 teams with two losses.. lets not even discuss them.
32 teams on 1 win 1 loss. Judging from last weekend's results, winning means 125 points most of the time. Out of the 32 winners, only 4 didnt get 125 points and even they were above 100. So to advance from the middle you will have the most points won on your lost match.
What complicates this, is the fact that teams next to eachother in points play againt eachother. So lets assume that 1 team from each 1loss team is going to get 125 points as a win, and 1 team from each 1win team will lose with a point distribution similar to last weekend. Further complicating things is the fact, that the high scoring losers might come from amongst the teams that lost one already, so their high score will probably mean nothing.
Anyway, 1 win from each losing pair would mean:
125, 125, 128, 129, 131, 133, 135, 141, 145, 148, 153, 163, 174, 182, 193, 202
I took each pair, averaged their current points and added 125. As you can see, last weekend half the losing teams were over 15 points so if we take that as an average expectation (average is actually 28.1), we can say that at least half the winning teams will end up having 140 points or more (their 125 + at least 15). You can see, that that mixed with the above list would result in a field of about 16-20 teams over the 140 point treshold.
I would say 140-150 will be the mark to pass for the finals
Obviously team with less that that also have a mathematical chance of going though, but just that.. mathematical. I wouldnt hold my breath if i were you.
My post does not represent the general or official opinion of anyone else besides me. No matter what YOU believe.
Phear the arrows of the HUNs >>----> |
Tyrrax Thorrk
Amarr
Guiding Hand Social Club
Otherworld Empire Productions
|
Posted - 2009.01.29 14:33:00 -
[15]
I suspect the teams that won their last match will score more points while losing this time, making it even worse for us loser teams who have to compete with them ;O
Seems reasonable to me that higher quality teams would get more points when losing than lower quality ones...
|
DJTheBaron
Caldari
FinFleet
Band of Brothers
|
Posted - 2009.01.29 15:02:00 -
[16]
Its worth noting that a good team who made a bad call or who had a strong oponnent and failed miserably in the first round are likley to destroy a poor opponent, but by that same token, some of the winning teams did not put on a strong show and simply had an enemy who made that bad call or were poor to begin with.
What im saying is it will be very possible for teams with 80-125 points to not score anything in the next round, and leave openings for teams who may only have 10 points but get 125 in their next match.
The short number of qualifying matches and the new swiss system give plenty of chance for upset and suprise. Im looking forward to the weekend to see how it all plays out.
|
csebal
HUN Corp.
HUN Reloaded
|
Posted - 2009.01.29 16:35:00 -
[17]
Edited by: csebal on 29/01/2009 16:40:43
Edited by: csebal on 29/01/2009 16:39:50
Originally by: Tyrrax Thorrk
I suspect the teams that won their last match will score more points while losing this time, making it even worse for us loser teams who have to compete with them ;O
Seems reasonable to me that higher quality teams would get more points when losing than lower quality ones...
Having lost does not necessarily mean being lower quality. With the rules the way they are, you can get a very well thought out setup, great tactics and still fail horribly due to the opponent bringing the one setup that you are helpless against.
The difference between good and bad teams is the number of setups they are unable to counter. Even the best ones can get their asses kicked and even the worst ones can get lucky on their choice.
I would expect rather similar results than what we've seen last weekend.
Originally by: DJTheBaron
Its worth noting that a good team who made a bad call or who had a strong oponnent and failed miserably in the first round are likley to destroy a poor opponent, but by that same token, some of the winning teams did not put on a strong show and simply had an enemy who made that bad call or were poor to begin with.
What im saying is it will be very possible for teams with 80-125 points to not score anything in the next round, and leave openings for teams who may only have 10 points but get 125 in their next match.
The short number of qualifying matches and the new swiss system give plenty of chance for upset and suprise. Im looking forward to the weekend to see how it all plays out.
As i said, very similar.. i expect about half the teams that won last week but will lose this time to pass the mark, which leaves the second half to be filled with the teams from last week. As you can see, there will be AT LEAST 8 teams from last week's loosers who make it to 140-150 points already. Obviously that assuming that the teams score 125 point victories, but based on last weeks results, i dont think that trend is going to change. The only real question is this: do we really believe that there will not be at least 8 teams from last weeks winners who make at least 15-20 points in their matches? Sure there is a chance, but if we go purely from the statistics, thats - again - unlikely to happen.
My post does not represent the general or official opinion of anyone else besides me. No matter what YOU believe.
Phear the arrows of the HUNs >>----> |
Sintho
|
Posted - 2009.01.29 16:54:00 -
[18]
Im sorry if one of the other posts answered this question but it did not seem to.
My main question is are 0-2 teams automatically out of it? Even if they have more points then a 1-1 team?
When Molotov & Atlas fight, say Molotov wins and atlas gets 80 pts.
Now Atlas would have 153pts. Lets say many of the teams with 1 win get less then 28 pts. 1 win and 27 pts and they will only have 152 pts. So that would give the team with 2 losses more pts then a team with 1 loss and 1 win.
|
Elfaen Ethenwe
Caldari
Infusion.
PROBABLE CAUSE
|
Posted - 2009.01.29 17:11:00 -
[19]
Its also proberbly worth noting for the better quallity teams that have already got 125pts It'll be important to score high again to get yourself an easier fight in the next round, while ensuring you win so you dont have to be looking over your shoulder to see how many points everyone else is getting. Im expecting most teams to go on the offensive this time round. Should make for good viewing, although i think eve radio willl have to find 3 songs to fill the gap between some of the fights.
<><><>Together we gank, devided we pop<><><><>
|
Elfaen Ethenwe
Caldari
Infusion.
PROBABLE CAUSE
|
Posted - 2009.01.29 17:13:00 -
[20]
Originally by: Sintho
Im sorry if one of the other posts answered this question but it did not seem to.
My main question is are 0-2 teams automatically out of it? Even if they have more points then a 1-1 team?
When Molotov & Atlas fight, say Molotov wins and atlas gets 80 pts.
Now Atlas would have 153pts. Lets say many of the teams with 1 win get less then 28 pts. 1 win and 27 pts and they will only have 152 pts. So that would give the team with 2 losses more pts then a team with 1 loss and 1 win.
0-2 teams are out. regardless of points. In the same way that 2-0 teams are through, even if they only win there fight by a sole frigate kill.
<><><>Together we gank, devided we pop<><><><>
|
|
|
ry ry
|
Posted - 2009.01.29 23:47:00 -
[21]
as awesome as the tourney is, it;s a showcase.
you turn up with a gang and it will sink or swim - there isn't much margin for stalemates. everything depends on what your opponent brings - the simple truth is the best pvpers in eve could be beaten by the worst if they gambled on the wrong setup.
KIA lost. damn straight. they had the **** kicked out of them. does that mean they have any less chance of winning the second match? no.
i like the tourney because it's entertaining and something fun to chat about, not for the superb pvp m4d ski1lz.
|
Joe Shooter
Infusion.
PROBABLE CAUSE
|
Posted - 2009.01.30 03:50:00 -
[22]
Originally by: ry ry
KIA lost. damn straight. they had the **** kicked out of them. does that mean they have any less chance of winning the second match? no.
I sense bitter KIA alt?
Oh and, LolKIA
___________
|
Tractus Vesica
Caldari
Atrum Flamma
Order of the Black Dragons
|
Posted - 2009.01.30 04:07:00 -
[23]
What the hell is the point to having a point system, when the round ends by one team completely having eliminated the other?
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
"Don't fight a battle if you don't gain anything by winning."
-German Field Marshal Erwin Rommel
(The Dese |
|
|
| |
|
| Pages: [1] :: one page |
| First page | Previous page | Next page | Last page |