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The impending restart of the GTC/PLEX "bubble" :)

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Akita T Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force	Posted - 2009.02.05 01:10:00 - [1] Unanounced as functional yet, the "buy PLEX directly from CCP" system is operational. Well, sort of, anyway, since people are reporting some confusions on how exactly it works or should work... but it works. You can find it as last link on the lower right under "My Account". The bad news ? 2xPLEX costs 34.99, and there's absolutely no discount for 4xPLEX nor 6xPLEX. I can only guess the trend in the previous weeks regarding PLEX prices (the one before the redeeming system was announced) should see a big, bad come-back. Well, that is, unless that's just the provisional price, to be modified later on. _ Create a character \|\| Fit a ship \|\| Get some ISK
Dani SP Rupture Farms Mining	Posted - 2009.02.05 01:36:00 - [2] 30dPLEX costs about 320millions ISK, so it's still cheaper to buy it with real life money. at least for me since I don't earn 160mil isk per hour :)
Ami Nia Caldari	Posted - 2009.02.05 01:58:00 - [3] Originally by: Dani SP 30dPLEX costs about 320millions ISK, so it's still cheaper to buy it with real life money. at least for me since I don't earn 160mil isk per hour :) They used to cost 360+ mil. What Akita means is that they may go up again to that level. However I've noticed that price changes on the forums were faster, while the ingame market have much more inertia. I think they will take an upward trend again, but it may not be an immediate rise (not as fast as they plummeted, I mean). Then again, March 10 is getting close and that will surely push them up in and by itself. I'm holding on my GTCs for the moment. Military experts call it a Templar, a fighter drone used by Amarr carriers. -- Sheriff Jones
Sikozu Prioris Serenity Engineering and Transport Company Wildly Inappropriate.	Posted - 2009.02.05 02:05:00 - [4] OH LOL. For us people in Europe it costs 35euros. Epic fail ccp. I'll stick with the $35 time cards and convert them thanks.
Ami Nia Caldari	Posted - 2009.02.05 02:19:00 - [5] Originally by: Sikozu Prioris OH LOL. For us people in Europe it costs 35euros. Epic fail ccp. I'll stick with the $35 time cards and convert them thanks. GTCs bought in Europe (that is from CCP) have always costed like that. No news here. And yes: that's the only reason a lot of europeans use GTCs AND buy them from US resellers. Military experts call it a Templar, a fighter drone used by Amarr carriers. -- Sheriff Jones
Akita T Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force	Posted - 2009.02.05 03:09:00 - [6] Originally by: Dani SP 30dPLEX costs about 320millions ISK, so it's still cheaper to buy it with real life money. at least for me since I don't earn 160mil isk per hour :) PLEX started at around 310 mil, they dropped to around 290 mil fast, then kept increasing with some fluctuations. They were selling for as high as 390 mil before the "redeeming system" was announced. Immediately after the announcement of the upcoming redeeming system, they started a rather quick plummet, and you could get them for 310 mil again, just a couple of hours ago. You probably still can, now and tomorrow, but two days from now, not very likely. Since now we know that there will be absolutely no discount from the GTC price, and since you CAN'T buy a single one either (and HAVE to buy in pairs), the reason they dropped in the first place is no longer there. As a side-note, an account with 3 near-maxed datacore collection characters (L5 science, L4 RPM/Nego/Conn) can passively collect the equivalent of roughly 350 mil ISK a month in Mechanical Engineering datacores (not the best but a reasonably steady datacore type), or around 420 mil ISK per month in Laser Physics datacores (the best ones right now), at the current market prices. Yeah, sure, not everybody has such accounts, but it's a possibility to be considered. Also, not everybody can earn 17.5$ in two hours, especially not as "additional work" income. There are countries with EVE players where you should be quite happy to earn that in 20 hours, and you can't exactly earn more per month as you already do, since even having a "first job" is hard enough. For those particular people, it would be worth more to pay in ISK even if prices would keep rising for a while.
Raymon James Minmatar Sebiestor tribe	Posted - 2009.02.05 03:59:00 - [7] Good good between my Dcore alts and plexe sales I will be making enough to subsize my ongoing effort do Drive finished goods priced to 10% of base mineral costs! Im just kidding people!
Clair Bear Perkone	Posted - 2009.02.05 04:46:00 - [8] Definite epic fail here. But it's the thought that counts. CCP still wants to 'fix' the out of reach pricing of gametime. They'll keep trying, of course. Providing for trading opportunities like these. If the credit card fraud doesn't materialize yeah, I'm highly encouraged re: pushing PLEXes to 1B/month. This time for sure!
LaVista Vista	Posted - 2009.02.05 04:58:00 - [9] Do we really need another thread on this when there's a 5 page thread back on page 2?
Akita T Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force	Posted - 2009.02.05 08:58:00 - [10] Like you said, it's on page two... and the title does not reflect current developments at all, quite the opposite.
Permadocked Panda	Posted - 2009.02.05 10:51:00 - [11] Hay guise, Akita picked up a bunch of PLEX at the low last week, let's push the price back up!!!11 /sarcasm :p
Midas Man Caldari Dzark Asylum	Posted - 2009.02.05 15:49:00 - [12] Edited by: Midas Man on 05/02/2009 15:51:23 Originally by: Permadocked Panda Hay guise, Akita picked up a bunch of PLEX at the low last week, let's push the price back up!!!11 Fixed no need for the sarcasm. I called "manipulated" crash in the last thread. Also look at the Jita market and notice the big stacks of plex (eg one for 57 units that keeps appearing trashing 5-10 mill off of the lowest sell price waits for a few lemmings to follow then "dissapears" while all the lemmings sell out. Also notice how much the volume has increased now they are nice and cheap. Not a stead rise obviously someone stockpiling Part 1 1) Plex introduced 2) let them settle for a few weeks to get an idea of current supply/demand. 3) Buy out a large portion of the daily supply (Ricdics and others) and hold onto it 4) Demand spike takes hold as prices start to increase. 5) Spread as much propaganda on the interweb about how safe an investment Plex's are (Majority of the active MD community hmmm wonder how many had fingers in the pie) 6) Sell out majority of original stock at massive profits but retain enough for part 2. Part 2 1) Now spread propaganda about the "Crash" that's about to hit. 2) Use your remaining cheap stock from original manipulation to simulate excess supply and start reducing prices. 3) Continue getting people panicked about price so they all undercut and keep the crash going. 4) once price are nice and low, go back to part 1 step 2 This is where we are now, Akita is just providing the propaganda for the latest manipulation.
WarlockX Amarr Free Trade Corp	Posted - 2009.02.05 16:08:00 - [13] I already posted a thread informing ppl that the crash was manipulation. Noone cared. That's ok more money for me... ----------------------------------------------- Free Trade Corp - Flash page "Nothing about Eve should be easy. Not even ganking." -Rhohan
achoura	Posted - 2009.02.05 16:27:00 - [14] Well cutting the middle man out means more money for ccp. Or at least it would if they hadn't (once again) chosen to ignore the fact that alot of people either cont have credit cards ior don't hand them out to more companies than they can help. I.e if you have a debit card (pretty much everyone with a bank account - what percentage of the user base is that again?) or a payapl account, pretty much everyone who likes not having to worry about being told someone on the other side of the globe has been spending their money, you're still being shafted by ccp. I'm picking on this specifically because i've seen people complaining about the lack of both for longer than i've been playing the game, 3+ years. On top of which it actually costs you more to by from the actual supplier which only provides one of the three main payment methods, than if you buy from a reseller that accepts all three. *The EVE servers and their patches*
Astarte Nosferatu Abrivianius Manufacturing Corporation	Posted - 2009.02.05 16:31:00 - [15] I for one see Plex prices go up to 380mil again before the expansion.
Midas Man Caldari Dzark Asylum	Posted - 2009.02.05 16:49:00 - [16] Originally by: Astarte Nosferatu I for one see Plex prices go up to 380mil again before the expansion. they were higher before the downward manipulation so expect 400 + in the next 2 weeks
Kazzac Elentria	Posted - 2009.02.05 16:54:00 - [17] Originally by: Midas Man Originally by: Astarte Nosferatu I for one see Plex prices go up to 380mil again before the expansion. they were higher before the downward manipulation so expect 400 + in the next 2 weeks Gotta agree here, I said hold em till near patch day once the price seemed to bottom.
Astarte Nosferatu Abrivianius Manufacturing Corporation	Posted - 2009.02.05 17:37:00 - [18] Originally by: Kazzac Elentria Gotta agree here, I said hold em till near patch day once the price seemed to bottom. I sold mine at 375mil when prices started to fall, having bought them at 330-345mil. Now buying again at 320-335mil to resell after patch at 400+. This coupled with Orca, Covert Ops ship, Covert Ops Cloaking Device, Blockade Runner, Moon Material, mineral and Implant speculation is going to make me quite a few bil, if not 10bil+.
Alex555	Posted - 2009.02.05 20:02:00 - [19] i wonder what will ccp do next if plex prices hit 400mln again?
Thoraemond Minmatar Far Ranger	Posted - 2009.02.05 20:03:00 - [20] Where can I buy PLEX options or futures? Is there a PLEX Reserve venture? Block Ukx?!
zacuis Great Big Research	Posted - 2009.02.05 23:17:00 - [21] im personnaly very unhapp about ccps handling of this issue and anyone that pays for eve with isk should be also. it was a exellent chance to lower the isk value of a plex and they didnt. i just wonder why would love to hear why.
Dreamwalker	Posted - 2009.02.06 00:11:00 - [22] Originally by: Thoraemond Where can I buy PLEX options or futures? Is there a PLEX Reserve venture? Block Ukx?! you can just buy the plex at 300 million like I'm doing and hope and pray that they will raise to 350-400 million. Still holding onto a few orcas for the market to turn.
Aricaan Gallente Playboy Enterprises Dark Taboo	Posted - 2009.02.06 02:22:00 - [23] Originally by: zacuis im personnaly very unhapp about ccps handling of this issue and anyone that pays for eve with isk should be also. it was a exellent chance to lower the isk value of a plex and they didnt. i just wonder why would love to hear why. I gotta disagree... the lower in value they go, the more likely people will use illegal ways to get their isk.
Clair Bear Perkone	Posted - 2009.02.06 04:36:00 - [24] Edited by: Clair Bear on 06/02/2009 04:36:30 Originally by: Dreamwalker you can just buy the plex at 300 million like I'm doing and hope and pray that they will raise to 350-400 million. Confirming I will be receiving ISK from a PLEX runup due to the absolute NO OP event of the direct sales from the web site. Good thing too. I needed somewhere to park my money while the whole t2 materials insanity settles down.
Dreamwalker	Posted - 2009.02.06 05:06:00 - [25] Originally by: Clair Bear Edited by: Clair Bear on 06/02/2009 04:36:30 Originally by: Dreamwalker you can just buy the plex at 300 million like I'm doing and hope and pray that they will raise to 350-400 million. Confirming I will be receiving ISK from a PLEX runup due to the absolute NO OP event of the direct sales from the web site. Good thing too. I needed somewhere to park my money while the whole t2 materials insanity settles down. Or you can tied up all your isk and run missions because you don't want to sell anything as the bulls are running.
Alex555	Posted - 2009.02.06 07:14:00 - [26] i witness a massive sell-off al over the eve universe. seems like people dont want to wait till next expasion
Kazzac Elentria	Posted - 2009.02.06 13:22:00 - [27] Originally by: Aricaan Originally by: zacuis im personnaly very unhapp about ccps handling of this issue and anyone that pays for eve with isk should be also. it was a exellent chance to lower the isk value of a plex and they didnt. i just wonder why would love to hear why. I gotta disagree... the lower in value they go, the more likely people will use illegal ways to get their isk. This I'll agree with, its in the designers best intentions to make purchasing ISK (since effectively that's what GTC and PLEXs are about) easier and rewarding enough to stray them from RMT on ebay and the likes.
echohead	Posted - 2009.02.06 23:02:00 - [28] regarding the plex market being manipulated by players to cause a crash all I have to say is: What a cool game! Seriously, do WOW players ever have to worry about stuff like this?
Juliet SoulBurner	Posted - 2009.02.08 18:56:00 - [29] Isk is FREE and unlimited, but real money is not. Why people sell plexes so cheap is something i do not understand, shouldnt they be like 1B to 2B per 30 days since you can make more then that in a few days of play?
Astarte Nosferatu Abrivianius Manufacturing Corporation	Posted - 2009.02.08 18:57:00 - [30] It is quite funny though, prices are reaching as low as 300mil nowadays. - 5th of Februari 2009: Victory over BoB Day.
Alex555	Posted - 2009.02.08 19:45:00 - [31] Originally by: Astarte Nosferatu It is quite funny though, prices are reaching as low as 300mil nowadays. the volume has increased. still it is a slight upward movement of plex's prices
Breaker77	Posted - 2009.02.08 19:50:00 - [32] Originally by: Alex555 Originally by: Astarte Nosferatu It is quite funny though, prices are reaching as low as 300mil nowadays. the volume has increased. still it is a slight upward movement of plex's prices 284 mil where I'm at and still dropping
Astarte Nosferatu Abrivianius Manufacturing Corporation	Posted - 2009.02.08 19:54:00 - [33] Bubble -> Crash in a week or two timeframe. WE NEED CCP INTERVENTION! - 5th of Februari 2009: Victory over BoB Day.
Alex555	Posted - 2009.02.08 21:08:00 - [34] we dont need any intervention in fact an intervention doesnt make anything good. things must flow in natural way. either way they go the market will decide
Akita T Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force	Posted - 2009.02.08 21:24:00 - [35] Hey, one thing I'm happy to be wrong about ! I shall vouch to try and never, ever again underestimate the lazyness and/or stupidity and/or desperation of really large numbers of people
Astarte Nosferatu Abrivianius Manufacturing Corporation	Posted - 2009.02.08 21:33:00 - [36] Originally by: Alex555 we dont need any intervention in fact an intervention doesnt make anything good. things must flow in natural way. either way they go the market will decide There was a hint of sarcasm in my post.
Kazzac Elentria	Posted - 2009.02.09 04:30:00 - [37] We still have quite a bit until patch day, and once the changes hit the test server Im sure you'll start to see numbers climb again.
Steve Thomas	Posted - 2009.02.11 02:53:00 - [38] Originally by: Kazzac Elentria We still have quite a bit until patch day, and once the changes hit the test server Im sure you'll start to see numbers climb again. nope still slumping with the volume for sale in my market slowly growing. see the reality is that theirs only so many people who actualy USE plex cards (as in redeem them for game time) and none of them want to spend any more ISK than they actualy need to.
Clair Bear Perkone	Posted - 2009.02.11 03:34:00 - [39] Give it a month. I still suspect credit card fraud. With the GTC system CCP had to send a physical card to a real world address. With the new system the PLEX appears in inventory. There's a reason GTC sellers had extra security measures -- and it wasn't because they liked the personal touch of contacting each customer. People who bought ISK with credit cards but are not repeat customers may find some large charges on their bill in 3 weeks or so. Until then stolen CC numbers can generate 1.8B/day for ISK sellers.
Steve Thomas	Posted - 2009.02.11 06:13:00 - [40] I personaly suspect that it was mostly CCP wanting to make a bigger margin than what they were making on the whole deal and wanting to cut out the Gamecode sellers who are quite honestly suspected of being part of the problem currently in EvE.
Pese deu	Posted - 2009.02.11 07:47:00 - [41] Edited by: Pese deu on 11/02/2009 07:50:34 I can't help wondering how long this system will work. This is because something similar was possible in the early years of Eve. Back in 2004 you could buy ETC's directly from CCP and you would get the codes in your email. Then you could sell those codes on the forums for ISK. That system was so abused with fraud that they scrap it and moved the risk to resellers. Now they added back this system with the slight modification of adding an ingame item representing the ETC. I wonder why. All i know is that now Plex buying/selling has become less secure. Let me explain. Imagine the following scenario: - someone purchases with a stolen card 6 plex's. Sells them on market at the highest buy orders. Then he washes the ISK by purchasing skills, bps and move them to a different char(s). What will happen when the chargeback comes in ? What will happen to the honest buyers ? Will CCP remove their time added with plex's that were initially bought with a stolen card ? At this point CCP is in a lose-lose situation. If they remove the added time from honest buyers that did not know they were buying Plex's acquired with stolen cards then you can imagine what happens.... If they do not remove the time added from honest buyers then CCP is offering their services for free. They already lost due to chargebacks and can't punish honest players for something they could not control. Or if they do then those honest buyers will leave eve altogether. This move (of allowing Plex purchasing directly from CCP) was the worst i've seen in years. That is because it will solve nothing: - CCP will not earn more because the will be targeted by hackers and as i've already explained, purchases from stolen credit cards leads to a lose-lose situation for CCP. - RMT will not be eliminated. If anything it will make it easier. As i've seen on some ISK selling sites the current rates are at around 30-40 USD per Billion. At current Plex prices you can buy ISK from CCP at around 60 USD per billion. If the Plex prices go down (as CCP wants), the Billion will cost more (at 200 mil/plex , 1 bil will cost 85 USD). ISK sellers will still offer better prices. And for those that lowest price is more important then transaction safety , then they will still buy ISK not from CCP. Furthermore, now ISK sellers have more way to sell their ISK. They can easily offer on ebay or on their sites Plex's (bought with ISk from Jita) that can be paid with additional payment methods such as Paypal. They have now a new purpose of farming ISK... to buy plex's thus offering and additional product/service with their RMT business. Furtherfurthermore, if CCP plan is to have plex's price going down then this will only help RMTs. That is because, let's say that the plex goes down to 200 mil, then they can buy with 1 billion ISK 5 plex's on the market ingame instead of 3 now. They will then transform their farmed ISK for more money. Whoever took this decision at CCP did not think it through me believes.
Steve Thomas	Posted - 2009.02.11 15:54:00 - [42] Actualy a few counterpoints with the new system they can tie a verified (IE subscribed) players account to the stolen card. use a stolen card the account is banned.(you cant buy plex with a trial account right now) CCP will earn more per duplex sold because they dont have to sell the card at a discount to a third party (I know they are not getting the volume benifit that WoW gets and WoW gets 8.50 per game month for cards and codes sold by third parties) CCP also busted some of the virtual card sellers for being part of the RMT that they are dealing with right now.(seriously what would you do if your real buisness is selling ISK for $, I think I would wrather pay the <8.50 per game month that they have to pay for the GTCs by being a "GTCseller" and by the way also sell some GTCs on the side to legit players) what it boiled down to was CCP was virtualy paying some of the ISK sellers operate as ISK sellers.
Kazzac Elentria	Posted - 2009.02.11 16:14:00 - [43] Originally by: Steve Thomas Edited by: Steve Thomas on 11/02/2009 03:05:54 Edited by: Steve Thomas on 11/02/2009 03:04:45 Edited by: Steve Thomas on 11/02/2009 03:03:20 Originally by: Kazzac Elentria We still have quite a bit until patch day, and once the changes hit the test server Im sure you'll start to see numbers climb again. nope still slumping with the number siting in sell orders constantly growing, and the gap between buy and sell orders increasing. see the reality is that theirs only so many people who actualy USE plex/GTC (as in redeem them for game time) and none of them want to spend any more ISK than they actualy need to. what happend was a bunch of people got the idiot idea that because its so cheesy easy to make ISK in this game that people will be more willing to spend isk instead of Cash to play. This was compounded by the idiots in game who thought WoW! Better get in on this before it hits whatever the magic number is and then bail out, and sunk their ISK into the plex market further driving the price up. the REALITY is that when the Asterics hits the fan it can be cheeper to pay for a months subs with real cash than isk. Right now we have the triple whamy of the Reacter exploit being tanked by CCP, BoB getting, well, BoBed, and the usual market runup in prices prior to the release of an expansion forceing people to decide if its cheeper to pay for a month with cash or with ISK. right now most people want to hold on to ISK and data cores. Supply glut, I still feel we'll see a rise in prices as patch day approaches and into a month or two afterwards. I'd have to look to confirm, but Im pretty sure GTC have followed roughly the same pattern
Pese deu	Posted - 2009.02.11 17:20:00 - [44] e few counter-counterpoints :) You can imagine a credit card hacker can upgrade an account from trial to paid simply by using a stolen card. they then buy plexes with the same card. Thus they don't care about their "paid" account. They buy plex's and fast sell them for ISK. That ISK either is going to ISK sellers that now can simply offer ISK at even lower prices or that ISK is used by the hacker's main accounts after a careful ISK washing. Do not underestimate them.. if they can stole credit cards they can wash the ISK too. My point is if the hacker that buys some Plex's with a stolen card has the time to sell them to other players ingame (honest buyers) then CCP loses just because those Plex's that they offered for nothing (due to chargeback) are used to pay for subscriptions. I truly hope CCP will not punish others for their mistakes. Usually card chargebacks takes some time to "appear". The original owner of the card has no clue it's money is being used to make purchases on the net until the next monthly statement comes. I don't know what are the discounts for GTC sellers but CCP is 100% safe selling to authorized resellers. I doubt they (CCP) are offering a refund for a GTC seller that gets scammed. Now thy're taking all the risk. As i've told you before and others also pointed, CCP DID offered game codes via email back in 2004, codes that could be purchased by credit cards. A very very similar system to the current one. They scrap it... guess why. Now, maybe due to the global economics situation or who knows, they are taking some risks. As for GTC resellers that are ISK sellers then i think they should simply not allow resellers from sites that also sell ISK. I know one can open two sites, a pretended GTC reselling site and an ISK selling site but that is a risk that a company must take. They can't just verify everything and their only alternative is to not have resellers at all. Time will tell what will happen. My honest opinion is that current system is a step BACK from transaction safety. Now hackers have a big target. A target that is way easier to scam then a small reselling company that has many security measures like phone calling, billing address verifying , etc. CCP's system has absolutely no verification requirement other then a simple IP matching that can be easily bypassed with a VPN account.
Mara Rinn	Posted - 2009.02.11 21:22:00 - [45] From my reading of it, Akita, the "trend" of PLEX rising to 380-odd last week was fueled entirely by you and your PLEX-trading friends buying out the cheap ones and selling them at inflated prices. Looks to me like the volume traded increased significantly when the price returned to sane levels. It's not the sellers who determine the ISK value of a PLEX, sad to say.
Steve Thomas	Posted - 2009.02.12 06:21:00 - [46] Ive said this elsewhere but it bears repeating PLEX come from outside the game, and are consumed inside the game. the limit break with plexes are the total number of people who are actualy willing to fork over ISK for a plex to play the game for another 30 days, and how mutch isk they have to fork over. Its not like ships-modules-ammo and what have you that burns up Trit thus forceing everyone to directly or indirectly mine and produce. in fact by its very natue PLEXes are hostile to the existing market. They are NOT a comodity. its literaly an avoidable tax. you want a PLEX then you have to divert ISK from what you want to buy ingame for the right to play for another month in game but not everyone wants to spend time mining/ratting/burning Datacores/selling ISK for PLEX when they could be doing the same to get an upgrade to their ship. some people thought that Datacores were being "produced" to pay for plexes. well It looks like the "Datacores are Free = Free PLEX LOL" argument(for now) is loosing (thats not counting the people who honestly see their ISK ballance as the game score, that kind of person just is not going to shell out ISK for a plex card.) Lets face it its $15 a month (or less) to play. and that is not realy that mutch for someone who wants to play in the US. its 2 hours work at my local Walmart after taxes for the stockers.
Steve Thomas	Posted - 2009.02.12 06:26:00 - [47] Originally by: Mara Rinn From my reading of it, Akita, the "trend" of PLEX rising to 380-odd last week was fueled entirely by you and your PLEX-trading friends buying out the cheap ones and selling them at inflated prices. Looks to me like the volume traded increased significantly when the price returned to sane levels. It's not the sellers who determine the ISK value of a PLEX, sad to say. thats the true Irony with plexes, you cant safely manipulate them in game for long because just like the duped moon minerals, all it takes is a few keystrokes to make two apear. they are not earned by in game actions or effort. and any effort to drive up the plex price just results in you telling the very people who are willing to spend RL$$$ for cash to toss 35 or more bucks into the pot to do so now!
Coronae Borealis	Posted - 2009.02.12 06:29:00 - [48] Originally by: Sikozu Prioris OH LOL. For us people in Europe it costs 35euros. Epic fail ccp. I'll stick with the $35 time cards and convert them thanks. That's why you buy GTC from USA and transfer it to PLEX with aroudnd 26 euros.

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