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Gnulpie
Minmatar
Miner Tech
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Posted - 2009.02.10 09:09:00 -
[1]
T2 ship invention and the resulting t2 ship prices depend cruically on the decryptor prices. If the decryptors get up in price, the ships will get much more expensive, the leverage factor is significant.
With the next expansion at March 10th we will see a new scanning system. Currently you can scan the system to see if and what sort of exploration sites are available and the radar sites contain those decryptors. Actually most of the decryptors come from exploration radar sites. The new system won't allow you do see if and what sites are available so all those radar/decryptor-hunters will have a hard time.
And even if the system is changed so that it will be possible again to see what sites are available, a lot of people will then scan for wormholes instead for radar-sites.
Therefore it is reasonable to predict a drastic decrease in the supply of decryptors available after the next expansion. |
Rogaru
Amarr
Southern Cross Alliance
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Posted - 2009.02.10 10:36:00 -
[2]
Not if finding the sites in general is easier - which the current SiSi testing implies.
In this case you'll have less people finding the sites, but finding them faster and more often.
If prices go up, more ppl will begin scanning, thus bringing the price down.
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Gnulpie
Minmatar
Miner Tech
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Posted - 2009.02.10 10:57:00 -
[3]
 Originally by: Rogaru
Not if finding the sites in general is easier - which the current SiSi testing implies.
That is the crux.
Finding a single site maybe is easier with Apocrypha, but not finding some specific site.
At the moment the decryptor hunters do the following:
1) Enter system, launch multispec probe
2) If no radar signature, go to next system and start at 1 again
3) If radar signature, deploy probes
4) scan scan scan
5) profit!!!
In the future it will be:
1) Enter system, deploy probe(s)
2) If no signature found, go to next system start at 1 again
3) deploy probes to nearest signature found
4) triangulate triangulate triangulate
5) if site is not radar site, go to 3
6) profit!!!
The thing is, with the new system you cannot scan specifically for radar sites. And you have to scan down the site 100% before you can warp to it and see what site it is.
This makes exploration A LOT longer. Therefore there will be less decryptors/day available.
Of course, if decryptor prices are three times as high as they are now, more people will start exploration and they will increase the supply a bit.
But since t2 ship invention profits are quite sensitive to decryptor prices, it will be interesting to see the t2 ship prices in 2 months 
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Kazzac Elentria
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Posted - 2009.02.10 13:11:00 -
[4]
One problem though, decryptors do not decay and the only way they exit the game is through ships going pop.
The supply may vary, but the existing goods do not leave at any rate close to or nearing which they enter the game, so prices will continue to fluctuate down despite short term increases in prices.
...ask anyone who bought a one to do Hulk invention the first 3 months of invention. After 6 months that was a what... 80% drop in price? |
Wadaya
Caldari
Trailerpark Industries
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Posted - 2009.02.10 13:17:00 -
[5]
Decryptors decay, it's the interfaces that do not
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Kazzac Elentria
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Posted - 2009.02.10 13:28:00 -
[6]
Originally by: Wadaya
Decryptors decay, it's the interfaces that do not
...ignore me
I haven't had coffee yet
In any event I don't think we'll see a major shift in invention costs since most decryptors are worthless to use. |
Romanov DeBeers
Gallente
Small Gods
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Posted - 2009.02.10 13:55:00 -
[7]
The t3 decryptors on the test server are not the same decryptors that are currently in the game. Whether this remains so waits to be seen but it now seems likely that these will be new items.
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Clurk Brodon
Yog-Sothoth Heavy Industries
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Posted - 2009.02.10 18:29:00 -
[8]
Originally by: Kazzac Elentria
most decryptors are worthless to use.
Heh, then how do you explain their market price? :)
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Kazzac Elentria
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Posted - 2009.02.10 18:36:00 -
[9]
Originally by: Clurk Brodon
Originally by: Kazzac Elentria
most decryptors are worthless to use.
Heh, then how do you explain their market price? :)
People fail at profit calculations |
SencneS
Amarr
Rebellion Against big Irreversible Dinks
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Posted - 2009.02.10 18:41:00 -
[10]
Originally by: Clurk Brodon
Originally by: Kazzac Elentria
most decryptors are worthless to use.
Heh, then how do you explain their market price? :)
People hording them to limit supply?
People don't know how much they are really worth?
Compulsive marketeers reading threads like this and going stupid buying up loads and loads of them everywhere thinking they'll be worth more after the patch?  
You're guess is as good as mine :) |
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Alex555
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Posted - 2009.02.10 18:50:00 -
[11]
firstly, a price of a specific decryptor cannot be measured without taking into account the whole set of one race decryptors.
secondly, a price of a specific decryptor inside the group of race decryptors is pegged to its characteristics (e.g. runs, success rate, ME, PE)
therefore any shift in a price of specific decryptor can be only due to either sighnificant changes to all decryptors (let's say overwhelming/shortage supply of one type) or some changes to success rate.
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SencneS
Amarr
Rebellion Against big Irreversible Dinks
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Posted - 2009.02.10 19:02:00 -
[12]
Originally by: Alex555
firstly, a price of a specific decryptor cannot be measured without taking into account the whole set of one race decryptors.
secondly, a price of a specific decryptor inside the group of race decryptors is pegged to its characteristics (e.g. runs, success rate, ME, PE)
therefore any shift in a price of specific decryptor can be only due to either sighnificant changes to all decryptors (let's say overwhelming/shortage supply of one type) or some changes to success rate.
While I agree to the theory behind what you're saying, I don't know if you are aware of this, but Radar sites are found in high sec as well. And on average (At least for me) spit out 2-5 decryptors per find.
Considering with top skills, mods, implants I can scan down a radar site in highsec within 20 minutes it makes it very profitable. That's with the current probing system which is slow and complex, difficult for newbies to understand.
I think the biggest change that will be the fact that they are going to make scanning very easy to use. So I would imagine the supply will be up, hence price will be down.
Amarr for Life |
Alex555
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Posted - 2009.02.10 19:22:00 -
[13]
Originally by: SencneS
I think the biggest change that will be the fact that they are going to make scanning very easy to use. So I would imagine the supply will be up, hence price will be down.
agree.
by the way, how the chance of a drop of a decryptor, let's symbiotic figure, is determined? or is it just random number?
because the type of a decryptor is important |
SencneS
Amarr
Rebellion Against big Irreversible Dinks
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Posted - 2009.02.10 19:32:00 -
[14]
Edited by: SencneS on 10/02/2009 19:35:31
Originally by: Alex555
Originally by: SencneS
I think the biggest change that will be the fact that they are going to make scanning very easy to use. So I would imagine the supply will be up, hence price will be down.
agree.
by the way, how the chance of a drop of a decryptor, let's symbiotic figure, is determined? or is it just random number?
because the type of a decryptor is important
Totally random. However they are empire specific. For exmaple, the Decryptors that say "For use in Caldari research" is only found in Caldari space.
Edit:- To give you an idea, I was in a 0.9 system and picked up 4 Decryptors once, so sec status doesn't appear to be a factor. Although I know low-sec/0.0 you get a high chance of finding multiples. At least that is what I've found.
Amarr for Life |
Alex555
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Posted - 2009.02.10 19:44:00 -
[15]
ok. now it is clear as for racial identity of a decryptor
but what about type? decryptors of one race really differ in prices. is there any interconnection between the number of runs they add (succes rate they give) and the probability they drop?
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Mr Krosis
The humble Crew
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Posted - 2009.02.11 06:04:00 -
[16]
Just a comment about how scanning currently is on Sisi. It's not currently working yet, but how it is planned is you get more information about the site as you get closer/stronger signal. So you'll see that it's a radar site before you see that it's a site named "whatever" before you finally get a warp to zero.
Will that take longer than a multispec? Quite possibly. Or maybe not. With level 4 scanning skills and a non-faction launcher on TQ I think it takes about 3 minutes to run a scan. I think with a sisters launcher and L5 skills its down to about 2 mins. On Sisi it takes me about 5 minutes to pin down a site with warp to 0. I did 3 sites in the same system in just over 10 minutes.
-- Mr Krosis
The greatest obstacle to discovery is not ignorance; it is the illusion of knowledge. |
Rivqua
Caldari
Omega Wing
R.E.P.O.
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Posted - 2009.02.11 09:05:00 -
[17]
Originally by: Mr Krosis
Just a comment about how scanning currently is on Sisi. It's not currently working yet, but how it is planned is you get more information about the site as you get closer/stronger signal. So you'll see that it's a radar site before you see that it's a site named "whatever" before you finally get a warp to zero.
Will that take longer than a multispec? Quite possibly. Or maybe not. With level 4 scanning skills and a non-faction launcher on TQ I think it takes about 3 minutes to run a scan. I think with a sisters launcher and L5 skills its down to about 2 mins. On Sisi it takes me about 5 minutes to pin down a site with warp to 0. I did 3 sites in the same system in just over 10 minutes.
Did you manage to do this with signatures or anomalies ?
/Riv
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Qual
Gallente
Cornexant Research
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Posted - 2009.02.11 10:34:00 -
[18]
Originally by: Rivqua
Did you manage to do this with signatures or anomalies ?
/Riv
Yeah, the sigs take slightly longer, but they are quite doable in 5 mins average (and will be more so once the interface gets a bit more streamlined). Doing 3 in 10 mins does involve a bit of luck and/or player skill.
"The short version: Qual is right." -Papa Smurf |
Carniflex
Caldari
StarHunt
Systematic-Chaos
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Posted - 2009.02.11 10:38:00 -
[19]
The new scanning system takes some time to get used to. In principle the idea is good, but moving the probes to get proper trinagulation is a bit awkward. Something on the lines how you move POS mods. Try it without going far away from control tower ... the new probe navigation is not as fustrating, but something on those lines. I'm sure however that they fine tune the probe navigation system a bit more before relase. Main issue seems that navigation arrows scale with set probe range, so at max range they cover the whole system you are in usually.
Actual scan time might be shorter for 'hard' signals, easy ones will propably take approx the same time. Most of the time one spends navigating the probes around to get proper hit, as scan cykle itself is considerably shorter.
Overall the new system seems better than the old one. It's more interactive thus if one is 'good' at it at player skill level he will propably get good resualts considerably faster than someone who just can push the button.
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Hoshi
Eviction.
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Posted - 2009.02.11 12:48:00 -
[20]
Once the site identification system works it's going to be very fast to identify sites, to get the 100% strength needed for an identification you only need to get 1 probe into place close to the site.
This actually have some interesting implifications for pvp, I can as the system is right now on sisi send a combat probe over to a gate in the other end of the system and get a list of the shiptypes present without having to warp there.
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A Guide to Scan Probing in Revelations |
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