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Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
639
   |
Posted - 2012.04.23 23:14:00 -
[61] - Quote
Retar Aveymone wrote:Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
To you it's a problem, for me price prediction is a non factor.
yes or no, knowing tomorrows prices today is very useful
If you are gifted with clear voyance or whatever, be blessed and enjoy your fore-knowledge.
I am not such gifted and don't know many guys who got such gift, so I don't know - nor care about tomorrow's price.
I see the market taking a certain "posture" (i.e. forming a double bottom) and I get ready to handle what happens *after* that posture unfolds into action, with a range of tools I have been teached to use. That's all really to it.
Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |
corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
185
|
Posted - 2012.04.23 23:22:00 -
[62] - Quote
Don't need to have clairvoyance, just need to know your markets, a skill which you so readily deride.
You know, the entire US right wing is a cult of ignorance. You should immigrate, you'd fit right in. I mean, aside from being an immigrant... |
Retar Aveymone
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
306
|
Posted - 2012.04.23 23:25:00 -
[63] - Quote
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:Retar Aveymone wrote:Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
To you it's a problem, for me price prediction is a non factor.
yes or no, knowing tomorrows prices today is very useful If you are gifted with clear voyance or whatever, be blessed and enjoy your fore-knowledge. I am not such gifted and don't know many guys who got such gift, so I don't know - nor care about tomorrow's price. I see the market taking a certain "posture" (i.e. forming a double bottom) and I get ready to handle what happens *after* that posture unfolds into action, with a range of tools I have been teached to use. That's all really to it.
so let me cut through this attempt to filibuster and get this straight we now all agree that the idea that it is "useless" to know tomorrow's prices today was a completely bizarre statement no intelligent person should have made? |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
640
|
Posted - 2012.04.23 23:31:00 -
[64] - Quote
corestwo wrote:Don't need to have clairvoyance, just need to know your markets, a skill which you so readily deride.
You know, the entire US right wing is a cult of ignorance. You should immigrate, you'd fit right in. I mean, aside from being an immigrant...
I don't deride fundamental analysis ("the know your markets" thing).
Actually if you google:
vaerah vahrokha fundamental analysis
you'll readily have the link to the OP of the main analysis thread 
where in bolded letters, this method's Disadvantages section it's stated:
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:- Technical financial analysis is ALWAYS inferior to fundamental analysis. Both may lead to the so defined "informed trader" (Reference: Trading & Exchanges by chief Economist Larry Harris) but as described in the same reference, the one with access to reliable fundamentals data will have an higher success rate. Here's the catch, access to reliable fundamentals data is not a given, at all. Only the biggest players (both in RL and in game) have the clear vision of what's really going on. All the others have to settle in for more approximate methods.
Also, about your political remarks, I don't follow USA politics a lot, but I feel that both parties stink.
Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
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Sjugar
Science and Trade Institute
Caldari State
40
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Posted - 2012.04.23 23:32:00 -
[65] - Quote
You fail to realize that all your analysis on Nocxium is moot because the item was patched.
Artificial price ceiling, now gone, past pricegraph would have been very different without ceiling, data is now obsolete. Your TA on nocxium: worthless. |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
641
|
Posted - 2012.04.23 23:41:00 -
[66] - Quote
Sjugar wrote:You fail to realize that all your analysis on Nocxium is moot because the item was patched.
Artificial price ceiling, now gone, past pricegraph would have been very different without ceiling, data is now obsolete. Your TA on nocxium: worthless.
No dear.
In the past you'd see a strong range market below M R 570 and you could buy at its base and sell at its ceiling for 10.5% - fees profit per market bounce. In RL markets if you get 2-4% you'd already hop in joy.
In the present, that level is much below current price and so it does no harm.
Data is never obsolete, otherwise you would not have 30-40 years old stocks (and other markets) price history stored.
A RL example: Bank Of Japan and Swiss Central Bank publicly discolosed and apply "hard price cropping" when their currencies get too much appreciated, yet people happily trade at those levels.
Once again, what's a problem to you, for others is an opportunity.
Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
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Retar Aveymone
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
309
|
Posted - 2012.04.24 01:11:00 -
[67] - Quote
Retar Aveymone wrote:
so let me cut through this attempt to filibuster and get this straight we now all agree that the idea that it is "useless" to know tomorrow's prices today was a completely bizarre statement no intelligent person should have made?
vv you seem to have missed this key post just puttin it out there again |
Tauranon
Weeesearch
57
|
Posted - 2012.04.24 04:02:00 -
[68] - Quote
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
My job instead, is about dealing with the future. I identified 3 possible oucomes and wrote down how I'd act in each of them.
In a nutshell, (because this will likely get deleted like most other posts disagreeing with technical analysis).
(a) the 3 possible outcomes are the entire spectrum of possible outcomes for any price. ie I could say prices might go up, down or stay in a range for any price of anything ever. it doesn't need 2 pages to justify, and is not insightful.
(b) the market behavior you identified now is lacking some actors, and its about to lack several more actors. ie the behaviors you have modelled into technical analysis of this price, now involves many action types that simply can no longer occur, and will remodel the behavior of the actors that remain.
ie as a hull producer, I can no longer presume that a "magic price" order will get filled within 10 minutes, and therefore I have to be far more attendant to nocx as a category of order. It now routinely lands as last in my basket to fill, and therefore I routinely have to do the algebra that says 2 bil in minerals are now waiting on this 200mil of minerals, and therefore I am looking at a production stall if I don't take from a sell order.
in short, technical analysis of nocx past right now is a poor indicator of the medium term future of how this market will work.
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corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
185
|
Posted - 2012.04.24 04:38:00 -
[69] - Quote
Tauranon wrote:(a) the 3 possible outcomes are the entire spectrum of possible outcomes for any price. ie I could say prices might go up, down or stay in a range for any price of anything ever. it doesn't need 2 pages to justify, and is not insightful.
no see the important thing is that he laid out what he would do which makes it different because... |
Liberty Eternal
Red Federation
RvB - RED Federation
58
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Posted - 2012.04.24 06:53:00 -
[70] - Quote
Anyone who doesn't find the study insightful doesn't have to read it or use it. I personally found it quite interesting and useful and I'm open-minded to new ideas and trading methods. If people read it properly, they will see the numerous disclaimers that VV has put all over the work pointing out possible faults and imperfections - it is somewhat grandstanding VV to put claims of omniscience into his/her mouth when the original work had no such claim to total certainty. Isn't it therefore superfluous to spend 4 pages pointing out what the author already acknowledged in the original study? |
Nomad I
University of Caille
Gallente Federation
61
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Posted - 2012.04.24 07:58:00 -
[71] - Quote
Tauranon wrote:[quote=Vaerah Vahrokha]
in short, technical analysis of nocx past right now is a poor indicator of the medium term future of how this market will work.
A technical analysis isn't correct as long as any information about the equilibrium isn't available |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
642
|
Posted - 2012.04.24 08:11:00 -
[72] - Quote
Liberty Eternal wrote: Isn't it therefore superfluous to spend 4 pages pointing out what the author already acknowledged in the original study?
Some are just poasters who crap over someone else's work regardless of topic, just look at their posting history on other sub forums.
Some are of the "I can't read more than 10 lines off a thread running since 2010 so I'll cast my important pre-judice on it"
Some love to keep their asymmetry of information advantage.
Others hate to see somebody teaching the others how to disassemble their strategies (price is a good tracker).
Others hate seeing somebody offering an alternative that deprives them of their very easy money they get by using social engineering to push small and less knowledgeable players into loaded rumors for their pump and dump schemes.
I know you'll have noticed how the main thread ran "unharassed" for months as long as it kept quiet and did not attract any interest. All it took is an hot item people have interests into and WHAM! the flames begin.
The above keep markets inefficient and I know you like efficient markets 
Retar Aveymone wrote:Retar Aveymone wrote:
so let me cut through this attempt to filibuster and get this straight we now all agree that the idea that it is "useless" to know tomorrow's prices today was a completely bizarre statement no intelligent person should have made?
vv you seem to have missed this key post just puttin it out there again
I did not miss this post, I don't understand why I should be able to know tomorrow's price today. I am not a diviner, and find useless to try knowing tomorrow's price.
It's useful to know what to do if prices goes up or down or ranges.
Tauranon wrote:Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
My job instead, is about dealing with the future. I identified 3 possible oucomes and wrote down how I'd act in each of them.
In a nutshell, (because this will likely get deleted like most other posts disagreeing with technical analysis).
/Dons tinfoil hat
Yeah there's an eBil CCP conspiracy to promote technical analysis! The very Dr. Ejyo is behind this and I am his ugly minion!
Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
642
|
Posted - 2012.04.24 08:20:00 -
[73] - Quote
Tauranon wrote:
(a) the 3 possible outcomes are the entire spectrum of possible outcomes for any price. ie I could say prices might go up, down or stay in a range for any price of anything ever. it doesn't need 2 pages to justify, and is not insightful.
The 2 pages are:
1.5 pages explaining the various elements basics, like a course. I pick markets that show things I did not cover before and proceed explaining the various elements including when they happened in a distant past and thus are not even relevant today any longer.
In example, if I find a double bottom or triangle 6 months ago, I will spend 1.5 pages explaining what's a double bottom, I put pictures of it etc.
The remaining part is a simplified description of what is going on today. I could re-write it like in RL trading but then the never ending acronyms form an hostile jargon for an already difficult thread in a GAMING forum.
Tauranon wrote:
(b) the market behavior you identified now is lacking some actors, and its about to lack several more actors. ie the behaviors you have modelled into technical analysis of this price, now involves many action types that simply can no longer occur, and will remodel the behavior of the actors that remain.
The same happens in RL trading, when a central bank point blank decides to clip their currency or decide not to (depending on their current politics).
If tomorrow BoJ decides to not clip at 1.2 (BRN!) those expecting a magic fill will have to harden up. Markets are not babysitting anybody's wishes.
In particular, the behavior of *price* (not me, notice the huge difference) back at the time was faultless (price is NEVER wrong): a range market you could trade from a base to a top, dump and rinse again.
That's it. Now it's over, price (not me) produced some nice bullish bars to say so, now that past became a memory.
3 years from now, something could happen to make price return back to there and price WILL pause and do something (range, a swing bottom...) despite the hard cap has been lifted.
Tauranon wrote:
in short, technical analysis of nocx past right now is a poor indicator of the medium term future of how this market will work.
First of all a little premise: technical analysis is an hugely broad term. It covers anything from the scammiest "proprietary $99 magic squiggly indicators trading system, from $100 to $5000 in 1 week" to price action study.
In this ample range, WPD-WPG method tries to avoid all kinds of hype inducing stuff and only sticks to price formations.
Price formations may or may not happen (some are rare-ish), price talks how and when *it* wants.
I am sorry this won't provide you the indicator you want. If this method promised that, then it'd be a scam.
What it can do is to find a close-to-best, wallet conservative course of action to engage in case a number of next scenarios happen.
Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |
Danari
Invictus Australis
Northern Coalition.
3
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Posted - 2012.04.24 08:30:00 -
[74] - Quote
lol
Chartists are cute,
but at the end of the thread they're still
Chartists.
lol
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Tauranon
Weeesearch
57
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Posted - 2012.04.24 10:59:00 -
[75] - Quote
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:Tauranon wrote:
in short, technical analysis of nocx past right now is a poor indicator of the medium term future of how this market will work.
In this ample range, WPD-WPG method tries to avoid all kinds of hype inducing stuff and only sticks to price formations. Price formations may or may not happen (some are rare-ish), price talks how and when *it* wants. I am sorry this won't provide you the indicator you want. If this method promised that, then it'd be a scam. What it can do is to find a close-to-best, wallet conservative course of action to engage in case a number of next scenarios happen.
I don't sell nocx untransformed - and I buy it all the time to transform high or low - individual prices are scaled by the basket I need to acquire. So long as the basket and finished goods track reasonably well, I don't care much for individual movements - ie I don't need/want an indicator as such.
As it turns out the manufacturing basket has a further obvious insulation against individual movements, which can also be considered a fundamental.
---
I would say that the reason that most people barked - myself included - when seeing the second thread, is that we were cross linked to the middle of a thread that it was probably really important to -read- the introduction post. ie your analysis as such is far more reasonable in context.
given that certain fundamentals are widely known, pure charting analysis unintentionally appearing to masquerade as "the analysis", is always going to draw attacks.
My apologies for misunderstanding the intended scope of your posts.
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Liberty Eternal
Red Federation
RvB - RED Federation
58
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Posted - 2012.04.24 16:38:00 -
[76] - Quote
Wow, did this thread go on a diet and shed a couple of pages? Looking much better hunny! |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
649
|
Posted - 2012.04.24 17:04:00 -
[77] - Quote
Tauranon wrote:
I would say that the reason that most people barked - myself included - when seeing the second thread, is that we were cross linked to the middle of a thread that it was probably really important to -read- the introduction post. ie your analysis as such is far more reasonable in context.
given that certain fundamentals are widely known, pure charting analysis unintentionally appearing to masquerade as "the analysis", is always going to draw attacks for this mineral.
My apologies for misunderstanding the intended scope of your posts.
My apologies for replying you in a more than intended sarcastic way! I was getting quite goon-blasted so my bee repellant shields were overheated 
I think I posted about 5-6 "satellite" threads to the big one, expecially before the new forums. In some of them I put disclaimers and such and I - maybe mistakenly - believed I would not need to re-apply those boring blurbs here.
As I also have stated some times in the past, this is not meant to be the super duper anything. Conceptually speaking, this is the byproduct of The Slow Sell System for Lazy Marketeers and of Kazzac Ellentria / others at his time trading strategy.
The linked thread is about a lower income (compared to station trading) way to trade that is totally AFK and lazy like I am.
I liked it and it enticed me to understand how those big wallet guys managed to - as they said - make a killing by flipping 10 orders a day / week tops.
Now, if I recall correctly, that thread was about placing orders and let them sit there, till the markets "ebbs and flows" would take them.
That was inspiring and conceptually OK but I felt there was something "more" to it.
There had to be a way to earn more and quicker while being a lazy bum!
Coincidentally, around that time, I watched a seminar where some RL traders had charts showing daily bars, not the usual 5 minutes bars that intraday traders love to torture themselves with (I got started into RL trading by learning economy on MD, I did not know anything before playing EvE).
After a lot of investigations and research I found out that the markets "ebbs and flows" were called swings and some mechanics could be called to improve the Slow Sell System. At the same time I also applied the stuff in RL with alternating results till I found a guy teaching trading in an actually organic way that made sense. So I learned his stuff as good as I could and "backported" some of it in EvE.
So at the end of the old forums thread I ended the previous way (using crossing SMAs to find dips) and started using the WPD-WPG method.
So, in the end, as repeatedly stated, I don't aim at slamming some novel breaking news stuff. I won't out-trade fundamental analysis traders, I won't out-trade station traders.
I WILL out-AFK them and out-perform the Slow Sell System though.
Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |
Evil Brock Nelson
T2 Technologies Unlimited
9
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Posted - 2012.04.25 02:45:00 -
[78] - Quote
Promiscuous Female wrote:let me explain how pax amarria worked http://games.chruker.dk/eve_online/item.php?type_id=11585You can buy a single unit of PA for 3,328 ISK. It refined into two (2) isogen and six (6) nocxium. Iso went for 80 isk, so that leaves us with 3168 isk. Divide that by 6 and you get a price of 528 isk/unit. Pax Amarria can be acquired in literally infinite supply, which means that any time buys went above 535 or so (taxes/couriers factor into the slight bump), you could crush them with literal infinite supply.
Jesus ******* christ, how the hell is your back supporting that massive set of titanic ****? |
Promiscuous Female
GBS Logistics and Fives Support
Goonswarm Federation
96
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Posted - 2012.04.25 02:51:00 -
[79] - Quote
Evil Brock Nelson wrote:Promiscuous Female wrote:let me explain how pax amarria worked http://games.chruker.dk/eve_online/item.php?type_id=11585You can buy a single unit of PA for 3,328 ISK. It refined into two (2) isogen and six (6) nocxium. Iso went for 80 isk, so that leaves us with 3168 isk. Divide that by 6 and you get a price of 528 isk/unit. Pax Amarria can be acquired in literally infinite supply, which means that any time buys went above 535 or so (taxes/couriers factor into the slight bump), you could crush them with literal infinite supply. Jesus ******* christ, how the hell is your back supporting that massive set of titanic ****?
let me tell you what I did with all the nocx I got |
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