I don't care what you all say: it's NOT the Noctis, NOT some enormous manipulation scheme and it's not massive change in player behavior.

That leaves about one thing: drop rates increased. It's not like CCP didn't screw those up before....

It's not screwing up if done intentionally. Clearly CCP wanted to compensate slightly for the m0 drop changes. I do agree that i dont think player behavior has changes, my guess 90% of M4 were sold before and after. So this amount of volume increase can only mean the droprates have increased.

Bad for traders ofcourse, i used to trade quite a bit in M4 in the days. Especially regionwide buys made me quite a bit of isk (with a lot of work though).

simple as looking at the size of the cargo hold of your average mission runner...

they used to fill it up with meta0 items and would leave plenty of unlooted wrecks on the field (remember mission runners are in it for speed and bounties and picking up what they can, not optimizing every m3 of space).

no meta0 = more room for the other items.


no change in drop rates, just more meta items making it to the market. gonna crash, hard.

Compared to the 7 day average before Escalation, the last 7 days have seen a 45.53% decrease in average m3 of ore mined within high sec.

So many miners have changed their habits and have started doing something else.

For several months now it has been cheaper, far and away to fit Meta 4 over T2.

A mega Pulse Meta 0 costs1.2 mill
T2 Mega pulse is 4.5 mill

Meta 4 Mega Modulated cost 930K to buy and there is no shortage of them.
Conflag and Navy Multifreq both have 50% range penalty. Conflag has a .7 tracking penalty, Navy does not.

30.8 EM/ Therm 55.4 and 32.3 Shield and armor base on the conflag and

32.2 em, 23 therm with 50.6 and 27.8 on the Navy. For the low damage multipliers of Amarr, the dps loss is compensated for with the additional tracking. The point being, once people start to put the math to paper we will see alot more loot fits on the field.

The only exception will be blaster fits because T2 Blaster ammo has 25% range penalty where Navy antimatter has 50%.

Yes lets ignore that T2 do more damage and that the long range t2 ammo is really sweet in many cases, (barrage and scorch are just pure win). And of course since you dont have to use the t2 ammo.. i dont see why we would ever use meta 4 over t2 if we can use t2.

simple as looking at the size of the cargo hold of your average mission runner...

they used to fill it up with meta0 items and would leave plenty of unlooted wrecks on the field (remember mission runners are in it for speed and bounties and picking up what they can, not optimizing every m3 of space).

no meta0 = more room for the other items.


no change in drop rates, just more meta items making it to the market. gonna crash, hard.

yes, can only go up... great time to buy :)

even if the drop rates are fixed, ALL of the merchants are so scared into buying into any meta 4 item right now, simply because there are no safety nets (low and high price caps in place)

The volatility is extreme, thus the risk of ISK loss is much larger then chance for ISK gain over consistent trade periods.

The crash is going on "unseen" since the last big patch time or so.

I have checked some "known good" items that should show some liquidity. Click on "Max days ago 360" and "Week".

1600mm Reinforced Rolled Tungsten Plates I

Prototype 'Arbalest' Heavy Assault Missile Launcher I

Prototype 'Arbalest' Torpedo Launcher

Faint Epsilon Warp Scrambler I


Here is a Meta 3 too:

J5b Phased Prototype Warp Scrambler I


As you can see, the meta 4 behavior is quite similar and any traders station trading those items are basically going counter trend. That is they are buying from buy orders at low price to flip on sell orders but with a falling knife going against them.

Look at example at the Faint Epsilon scrambler (remember to set to weekly view): it's trivial to see how it made a double top (the two big red pin bars in the last weeks) which of course has a target of said double top replicated below.

But don't be fooled by the "bottomed" two last candles that are actually two buyers reactions to try hold price up. Price is still due to fall against their face until they manage to setup a double bottom (M formation = bearish double top, flipped W formation = bullish double bottom) or an inversion pin bar (it HAS to be large and we have small ones ATM).

Yes lets ignore that T2 do more damage and that the long range t2 ammo is really sweet in many cases, (barrage and scorch are just pure win). And of course since you dont have to use the t2 ammo.. i dont see why we would ever use meta 4 over t2 if we can use t2.

Still not flatlining, still dropping. How do I figure out the mineral value on the meta items? Sorry if it is obvious, I have no skill in reprocessing and have never bothered with it before. I just want to know when these things hit the floor.

Playerbase doesent actually grow with new players .. only new alts. Those get trained very fast to use vastly cheaper and effective t2 tank.

In short .. people dont need meta-4 tank mods as much. Combined with more supply the same time from noctis hordes.

I just use everefinery.

Still not flatlining, still dropping. How do I figure out the mineral value on the meta items? Sorry if it is obvious, I have no skill in reprocessing and have never bothered with it before. I just want to know when these things hit the floor.

Meta 4 at mineral prices? That would be interesting from a 'I want to pvp as cheap as possible'-point of view.... :P