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The Mittani
Caldari GoonFleet GoonSwarm
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Posted - 2009.07.16 12:25:00 -
[1]
http://www.tentonhammer.com/node/71300
I've been meaning to write something about this up for years now, but until recently I've lacked an actual explanation for the mechanics behind the cascade. Some recent reading in psych and behavioral economics at last offered rationales for some of the larger questions about alliance death:
Why does it not make a damned bit of difference when an alliance suffers a 'big hit' such as a titan loss or a cap fleet loss, yet 30 days of tedium is a killer?
Why did RA survive against LV/SoCo in C-J6? (hint, it's not because they're russian)
Why didn't Goonswarm cascade after months of undeniable loss against SE/ROL in Feythabolis/Esoteria between October 2008 and February 2009?
Cascades have always been a "know it when you see it" phenomenon, but the process with which to send an alliance into cascade is messy. We know if you hurt the other guy and take their ****, they eventually die. Except that sometimes they don't. A lot of times, the events which commanders assume will send someone into cascade don't appear to make an impact at all. I don't think this is a 'final' theory, since I expect I forgot some stuff that people will point out to me here and elsewhere, but I'm delighted to have delineated some of the phases at last.
There are a ****load of words here, about 4500 of them. At the end of the article are links to talks and various books describing where the relevant psychobabble comes from.
Creationists, classical economists and libertarians may also be offended.
Sins of a Solar Spymaster: my ~fair and balanced~ tentonhammer.com column |
Candy Man
Caldari Fatal Error. DEFI4NT
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Posted - 2009.07.16 12:31:00 -
[2]
1st
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Kris Longknife
Caldari Mentis Fidelis
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Posted - 2009.07.16 12:34:00 -
[3]
Edited by: Kris Longknife on 16/07/2009 12:34:29 delete
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NeoTheo
Caldari Dark Materials
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Posted - 2009.07.16 12:34:00 -
[4]
Edited by: NeoTheo on 16/07/2009 12:36:36 3rd, and place holder for nattter :P Looks like TTH is having intermittant issues atm.
Dark Materials |
The Mittani
Caldari GoonFleet GoonSwarm
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Posted - 2009.07.16 12:38:00 -
[5]
oh also this hasn't been edited properly so expect the odd missing word, once people warn me of the errors i'll have it tweaked~
Sins of a Solar Spymaster: my ~fair and balanced~ tentonhammer.com column |
Reprimander
Caldari Failswarm
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Posted - 2009.07.16 12:55:00 -
[6]
i do not approve of the lack of '~' in the OP
~
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Shinma Apollo
Caldari 4S Corporation Morsus Mihi
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Posted - 2009.07.16 13:11:00 -
[7]
Mittens, great work, but you should check out Robert Pape, Bombing to win He's really good for understanding the processes of the failure cascade, since he models the same thing in real life.
Originally by: CCP Mitnal
Let's not go near moderation discussion.
However, if the excuse involved role-playing Zorro, this did get full marks for creativity
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Scatim Helicon
Caldari GoonFleet GoonSwarm
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Posted - 2009.07.16 13:12:00 -
[8]
Which forum will this weeks thread be moved to? Spin the wheel of fortune!
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Crimson11
Caldari ZipZoom Kaboom
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Posted - 2009.07.16 13:12:00 -
[9]
Fairly interesting, I think it spent too much time on the actual psychology instead of applying it to eve situations or rather it didn't make enough of those connections.
It also doesn't address things as metagaming, emo rage quiting leaders, and hostile takeovers as alliance failures. All of which are pretty well known and documented throughout eve. Each of these I'm sure have many reasons for why they happen and what the player bases reaction to each of these would be.
overall though, worth reading
Crim
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Magic Trev
Gallente Veto. Veto Corp
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Posted - 2009.07.16 13:19:00 -
[10]
nice, well thought out and intereting read imo. congrats. ---------------------- ] |
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Hachi Ironfist
Gallente Rubbish and Garbage Removal Legiunea ROmana
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Posted - 2009.07.16 13:41:00 -
[11]
You mentioned the Polish, Germans, Russians and Hungarians ...but not the Romanians ... tsk tsk
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Mad Shade
Amarr The Hull Miners Union Gentlemen's Club
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Posted - 2009.07.16 13:52:00 -
[12]
Edited by: Mad Shade on 16/07/2009 13:53:04 Keep up the good work... I enjoy reading these articles, It's a nice way to kill time while at work.
Sometimes (aggro) you dont need to induce helplessness... just add a few neckbeards and lack of identification.
STRPR KB - Our Stats Speak for Themselves. |
Berel Oham
Minmatar GoonFleet GoonSwarm
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Posted - 2009.07.16 14:22:00 -
[13]
i don't get why libertarians are supposed to be offended
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DrDevice
Gallente Sniggerdly Pandemic Legion
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Posted - 2009.07.16 14:25:00 -
[14]
a good read :)
Absolutely right about the adversity, and its ongoing nature, however the articles vibe felt a little narrow towards the adversity being largely combat related.
From my experiences of fail cascade adversity can take many forms and be a lot more subtle.
Boredom and leadership absences can all take their toll.
It might be an interesting experiment to 'arrange' for the key FCs' for a timezone to go 'afk' for a few weeks at the same time and see what happens :)
this wouldn't need to be during any massive wars or anything that would cause any military failures, just take away the day-to-day direction.
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Fuujin
Caldari GoonFleet GoonSwarm
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Posted - 2009.07.16 14:33:00 -
[15]
Always love these reads. Keep them coming! :)
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Fuujin
Caldari GoonFleet GoonSwarm
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Posted - 2009.07.16 14:38:00 -
[16]
Originally by: DrDevice a good read :)
Absolutely right about the adversity, and its ongoing nature, however the articles vibe felt a little narrow towards the adversity being largely combat related.
From my experiences of fail cascade adversity can take many forms and be a lot more subtle.
Boredom and leadership absences can all take their toll.
It might be an interesting experiment to 'arrange' for the key FCs' for a timezone to go 'afk' for a few weeks at the same time and see what happens :)
this wouldn't need to be during any massive wars or anything that would cause any military failures, just take away the day-to-day direction.
I think he was focusing on the cascade-by-external-forces (spys seeding dissent aside). Leadership gaps will always cause turmoil and a loss of cohesion--whether the damage is superficial or mortal really depends on whether your alliance/corporate culture encourages people to step up and try and lead when there's a vaccuum.
Of course, even then it could be bad if someone steps up and sucks at the job. But then, there's a reason why assassination is an effective tool when done right.
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Aditia Holdem
Minmatar Doom Guard Wildly Inappropriate.
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Posted - 2009.07.16 14:49:00 -
[17]
Edited by: Aditia Holdem on 16/07/2009 14:50:44 I was about to post that CAOD is dead. This post injected some life into it!
Good read.
thanx
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Galaor
Amarr Senex Legio Get Off My Lawn
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Posted - 2009.07.16 14:55:00 -
[18]
Fun read as usual, but I think you're muddling up causes with effects a bit. This isn't any different than explaining the difference between a stock market downturn and a crash, or a military retreat vs. a rout. The common denominator is a failure (temporary or permanent) to believe in a system that requires such belief in order to work (you call it change in identification). The rest of the stuff you talk about may or may not be present.
There's all sorts of excellent analysis work on exactly how the rifleman square (think redcoats) worked, why certain armies had excellent results copying it and certain others never got it right, and how and why it failed when it did. You can get pretty much the same studies on the effect of cavalry charges on masses of footmen (and the effect of masses of footmen on cavalry charges). It's fun stuff.
For more recent examples, read any book on why World War 1 ended the way it did. If you want real life failure cascades (*lots* of them), it's hard to find better examples than that.
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Captian Duffy
Gallente Darke Aurora
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Posted - 2009.07.16 14:58:00 -
[19]
Originally by: Hachi Ironfist You mentioned the Polish, Germans, Russians and Hungarians ...but not the Romanians ... tsk tsk
nobody cares about you seriously, why so much nationalism?
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Garia666
Amarr T.H.U.G L.I.F.E White Core
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Posted - 2009.07.16 14:58:00 -
[20]
Edited by: Garia666 on 16/07/2009 15:00:32 Its time your alliance starts to die.. www.garia.net |
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The Mittani
Caldari GoonFleet GoonSwarm
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Posted - 2009.07.16 15:06:00 -
[21]
Originally by: DrDevice a good read :)
Absolutely right about the adversity, and its ongoing nature, however the articles vibe felt a little narrow towards the adversity being largely combat related.
From my experiences of fail cascade adversity can take many forms and be a lot more subtle.
Boredom and leadership absences can all take their toll.
It might be an interesting experiment to 'arrange' for the key FCs' for a timezone to go 'afk' for a few weeks at the same time and see what happens :)
this wouldn't need to be during any massive wars or anything that would cause any military failures, just take away the day-to-day direction.
adversity can take many forms, which is why i tried to keep it in those terms rather than just combat
having your forums goonrushed and being a public laughingstock, a la aggressionperiod, is certainly adversity
leadership vanishing tends to occur in the late stages of cascade, when an individual leader is bashed into helplessness. that absolutely accelerates things, as it provides a new excuse for a pilot to stop bothering: "even though i love my alliance, why should i show up and fight when the leadership doesn't, it's not my fault, it's theirs"
the reasons why alliances like aggression and fallen souls end up cascading so quickly is because they add so many new corps so fast (in some cases doubling in size in 3 months or less) that pilots haven't shifted their identification to the alliance
so if you see an alliance 'bloat' it's not a sign of strength but weakness; the older corps who were there pre-bloat blame the newer corps for ****ing things up, the newer corps don't have any stake in the alliance, etc.
Sins of a Solar Spymaster: my ~fair and balanced~ tentonhammer.com column |
The Mittani
Caldari GoonFleet GoonSwarm
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Posted - 2009.07.16 15:08:00 -
[22]
Originally by: Galaor
There's all sorts of excellent analysis work on exactly how the rifleman square (think redcoats) worked, why certain armies had excellent results copying it and certain others never got it right, and how and why it failed when it did. You can get pretty much the same studies on the effect of cavalry charges on masses of footmen (and the effect of masses of footmen on cavalry charges). It's fun stuff.
For more recent examples, read any book on why World War 1 ended the way it did. If you want real life failure cascades (*lots* of them), it's hard to find better examples than that.
i deliberately avoid analogies to real-life combat as eve is much more analagous to a no-contact sport than war. this is why quoting sun tzu about eve is such a laughingstock: no one gets killed or risks death and everyone can escape negative situations in eve simply by logging off
that said grossman's 'on killing' is a fascinating book
Sins of a Solar Spymaster: my ~fair and balanced~ tentonhammer.com column |
Malur Fy'Lap
Caldari Heavy Influence BearForceOne.
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Posted - 2009.07.16 15:08:00 -
[23]
Nice work Muffin.. i mean mittan
Very nice read
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The Mittani
Caldari GoonFleet GoonSwarm
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Posted - 2009.07.16 15:14:00 -
[24]
Originally by: Berel Oham i don't get why libertarians are supposed to be offended
modern psychology demonstrates that the classic summum bonums of typical lolbertarians are bs
objectivists/randians worship rationality, humans aren't only irrational but in many ways it is impossible for us to force ourselves into a rational mindest
lolbertarians of the nonrandian type often espouse the joys of a self-regulating 'free market' and behavioral economics blows bloody gaping holes in that
some nonrandian lolbertarians hold 'free will' to be their highest good, justifying both smoking pot and capitalism through it, the only problem is that 'free will' doesn't exist given how irrational and easily manipulated humans are, let's not even begin to touch on the number of inherent flaws in cognition which render free will a dangerous ideal
Sins of a Solar Spymaster: my ~fair and balanced~ tentonhammer.com column |
Xtreem
Gallente Knockaround Guys Inc. Exxxotic
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Posted - 2009.07.16 15:18:00 -
[25]
as much as i hate to, i really like these posts of yours.
good read
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TimMc
Gallente Brutal Deliverance
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Posted - 2009.07.16 15:19:00 -
[26]
Originally by: Berel Oham i don't get why libertarians are supposed to be offended
Me neither. I am a libertarian and was not offended. Maybe I am a **** libertarian.
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Le Skunk
Gallente Low Sec Liberators
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Posted - 2009.07.16 15:30:00 -
[27]
Edited by: Le Skunk on 16/07/2009 15:30:34 An interesting 5 min read.
Thanks
SKUNK (o)
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Dante Algermain
Gallente Silver Snake Enterprise Systematic-Chaos
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Posted - 2009.07.16 15:33:00 -
[28]
I've just studied this text, and whilst i went into it with an open mind, i find your typical "yank" writing style or using too many big words to explain things, detracts from what could be a well written piece of journalism.
I fully expect to get flamed for this, but opinions are like ********s, everybody's got one.
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The Mittani
Caldari GoonFleet GoonSwarm
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Posted - 2009.07.16 15:37:00 -
[29]
Originally by: Dante Algermain I've just studied this text, and whilst i went into it with an open mind, i find your typical "yank" writing style or using too many big words to explain things, detracts from what could be a well written piece of journalism.
I fully expect to get flamed for this, but opinions are like ********s, everybody's got one.
it is unabashedly psych gobbledy****, i have a psych ba vOv
Sins of a Solar Spymaster: my ~fair and balanced~ column TheMittani @ Twitter
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Dante Algermain
Gallente Silver Snake Enterprise Systematic-Chaos
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Posted - 2009.07.16 15:38:00 -
[30]
Originally by: The Mittani
Originally by: Berel Oham i don't get why libertarians are supposed to be offended
modern psychology demonstrates that the classic summum bonums of typical lolbertarians are bs
objectivists/randians worship rationality, humans aren't only irrational but in many ways it is impossible for us to force ourselves into a rational mindest
lolbertarians of the nonrandian type often espouse the joys of a self-regulating 'free market' and behavioral economics blows bloody gaping holes in that
some nonrandian lolbertarians hold 'free will' to be their highest good, justifying both smoking pot and capitalism through it, the only problem is that 'free will' doesn't exist given how irrational and easily manipulated humans are, let's not even begin to touch on the number of inherent flaws in cognition which render free will a dangerous ideal
A "self regulating" free market leads to the current global economic slow down and the "boom & bust" cycle.
Individual "free will" does exist, however it is belittled by "the mob" which turns people into sheep.
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