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Bad Bobby
The Dirty Rotten Scoundrels
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Posted - 2010.03.30 19:48:00 -
[31]
Originally by: Letrange The problem all the "is this a boost to low sec mining" people are ignoring like the elephant it is, is that it's safer to mine in w-space than low sec. So I ask you why the hell should a miner settle for lesser choice of ore in low sec when there's less risk in w-space? The MOST dangerous area in eve to mine is low sec. Unless the rewards are better than 0.0 or w-space there's no reason to mine there except stubbornness.
The only reason people try it is because they have not yet invested the scanning skills and basing requirements necessary for w-space existence. Period.
No, it wasn't ignored. It was exactly that that was being referred to:
Originally by: Bad Bobby Will it be enough to significantly encourage low-sec mining as opposed to 0.0/WH mining?
And...
Originally by: Malcanis How 'bout those ~400 capitals and supercaps fighting in Saranen right now...?
...was listening to my scout reporting on that while I've been on an op in the north...
Originally by: Scout node down yes confirmed.
...as expected.
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Mahke
Aeon Of Strife Discord.
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Posted - 2010.03.30 20:03:00 -
[32]
Edited by: Mahke on 30/03/2010 20:03:32 Since I've put as much isk in as I feel comfortable not caring about if I'm wrong and lose it all (which won't happen ofc, but, still), I'm most heavily in nocx with a smaller investment in isogen for kicks. The nocx I'm confident about, the iso is a coinflip based on ccp rebalancing and exactly how much of the iso from loot is excess from the fact that its overused in mineral compression. Was also thinking about zyd before the spike but sure as heck not touching it now.
Everything is of course up in the air as how ccp rebalanced things, and the basket as a whole is almost certainly going to drop hard.
On that note, the Jita market has gone insane and people are really overshooting values. Mex up 10%, highends up even farther (holy **** zyd), nocx up to 95+ when its still rocking at 86-7 through most other hubs even after I bought out the 80-84 stuff, etc.
there's still a month and a half till patch and the basket as a whole is going down. And remember: just because something may have been a good bet when the blog went live does NOT mean it is after its gone up as far as some of the minerals have.
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sinqlaison
Amarr Capital Builders Inc.
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Posted - 2010.03.30 20:05:00 -
[33]
Very interesting... am long in minerals to the extent of 160 billion ISK ... hope Mahke is wrong saying "the basket as a whole is almost certainly going to drop hard"
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Mahke
Aeon Of Strife Discord.
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Posted - 2010.03.30 20:13:00 -
[34]
Originally by: sinqlaison Edited by: sinqlaison on 30/03/2010 20:09:10
Very interesting... am long in minerals to the extent of 160 billion ISK ... hope Mahke is wrong saying "the basket as a whole is almost certainly going to drop hard" But until now the total mineral basket has appreciated some 3-4% in a few hours making me a nice 5-7 billion ISK
People are stupid and overshot speculation prices + theres no good way to short, and theres still a month of insurance fraud left, I don't expect the stuff thats going to fall to actually do so until shortly before the patch.
I could be wrong on this though. It's all in CCP's hands anyway, and while I've been right more often than wrong don't have a perfect record at all.
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SurrenderMonkey
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Posted - 2010.03.30 20:42:00 -
[35]
Originally by: FunzzeR
Solo mining would never payoff given the current payoff/risk ratio. Organizing into groups that and secure a system might tip the balance much like what is done in 0.0. 0.0 would have the same issues as low sec (even with the huge incentives of ABC ores) if not for the fact that there are organized entities providing some degree of safety.
Organizing into a group does not change the fact that the ores which can be found in low sec which CANNOT also be found in high sec do not pay out as well as the the ores that are found in high sec AND low sec.
Unless you just can't find a suitable volume of scordite anywhere in high sec, or are intending on doing grav sites, there's no good reason to mine in low sec at present, solo, group, or otherwise. --------------- Faction-Militia:Player-Alliance::Newbie-corp:Player-corp |
Licinius CrassusFilius
Amarr Bene Gesserit ChapterHouse
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Posted - 2010.03.30 20:47:00 -
[36]
Originally by: Mahke Edited by: Mahke on 30/03/2010 20:03:32
On that note, the Jita market has gone insane and people are really overshooting values. Mex up 10%, highends up even farther (holy **** zyd), nocx up to 95+ when its still rocking at 86-7 through most other hubs even after I bought out the 80-84 stuff, etc.
there's still a month and a half till patch and the basket as a whole is going down. And remember: just because something may have been a good bet when the blog went live does NOT mean it is after its gone up as far as some of the minerals have.
Just proves that buy on rumour, sell on fact holds true even 25,000 years into the future flying Internet spaceships
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Jeep Rubicon
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Posted - 2010.03.30 20:50:00 -
[37]
Is insurance really needed after you played for more then 1-2 years? EVE is already pretty vicious, why not just make insurance available to players under 2 years of play only? Although now that I think of it, there is probably another exploit to be had with no insurance option.
If CCP were to not allow strip miners in highsec then I think we would all just switch back to regular miners. I will occassionally mine in low/null sec but NEVER as my regular source of income. I go broke if I mine outside of highsec too much, too many people looking for honor in killing off my barges. I would take a loss to my playing income but it would not be anywhere near what I would lose from gankers.
Jeep
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FluorosulfonicAcid
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Posted - 2010.03.30 21:11:00 -
[38]
aww carp I was making 1 B isk a day off insurance with very very little work.
yesterday I made 3-4 M isk per ship on over 250 Rokhs each day, today I would lose 6-7 M isk and climbing per ship.
I guess I will have to do something new to make money, and it is about time, I didn't expect insurance to last forever so its not too bad.
BTW anyone want to buy my supply of trit, I got a couple Billion units left and nothing to use it for.
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Taua Roqa
Minmatar Woe Hole
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Posted - 2010.03.30 21:11:00 -
[39]
it's nice to see things I've lobbied for ages for being implemented it's almost like ccp listen to us.
almost...
:o
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nether void
Caldari Brotherhood of Suicidal Priests R.A.G.E
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Posted - 2010.03.30 23:20:00 -
[40]
Yep, node stability dictating cap destruction, as expected. Insurance fraud temp on hold 'till this min bubble bursts. Will have to halt my ship building for actual sales until bubble pops.
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Zoe Midoru
Selectus Pravus Lupus
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Posted - 2010.03.30 23:59:00 -
[41]
Hm. Increased insurance payouts leads to more T2 ships bought, used, and lost, leads to more demand for T2 ship construction, leads to... bigger profits for T2 ship BPO holders.
'cause T2 ship BPOs weren't already big enough ISK printing machines, CCP?
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2010.03.31 00:33:00 -
[42]
A good start but still vastly insufficient measures at tackling and solving the minerals super-abundance.
I posted a bunch of suggestions at
Link
and even those harsh suggestions are probably not enough to purge the excess of production we got. - Auditing & consulting
When looking for investors, please read http://tinyurl.com/n5ys4h + http://tinyurl.com/lrg4oz
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genette devo
Gallente Center for Advanced Studies
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Posted - 2010.03.31 06:23:00 -
[43]
oh well, got a little use out of scrap metal reprocessing
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Mara Rinn
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Posted - 2010.03.31 06:26:00 -
[44]
*sigh* and Wednesday is my Internet-free night.
Why is it always Wednesday that the market gets funky?
[Aussie players: join channels ANZAC or AUSSIES] |
Charles Park
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Posted - 2010.03.31 07:31:00 -
[45]
Look at the idiots speculate on morphite....
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Companion Trollin
You are going too fast
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Posted - 2010.03.31 08:14:00 -
[46]
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha A good start but still vastly insufficient measures at tackling and solving the minerals super-abundance.
I posted a bunch of suggestions at
Link
and even those harsh suggestions are probably not enough to purge the excess of production we got.
What are you smoking? Can I have some?
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Lillian Blu
Gallente Red Federation
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Posted - 2010.03.31 10:29:00 -
[47]
Any idea how will all this affect T1 and T2 BPO prices?
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Hexxx
Minmatar
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Posted - 2010.03.31 10:59:00 -
[48]
Originally by: Lillian Blu Any idea how will all this affect T1 and T2 BPO prices?
T2 prices are player determined, T1 prices are NPC determined. To answer you question, T1 BPO prices won't be affected by this particular change.
Projects Blog |
clixoras
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Posted - 2010.03.31 11:14:00 -
[49]
With t0 drops almost reducing to zero, it probably will be profitable again to produce these items.
And LMAO at market speculation, for like 2 months everybody is going crazy about min prizes going down by nerfing insurance and the day it's sorta final people are stockpiling.
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2010.03.31 11:18:00 -
[50]
Quote:
Hey, what can I say, the profit on minerals ought to be limited by how people value their time
You said a detail that happens on two levels. One is the "how people value their time" default meaning, that is how far the prices have to crash before people does not bother any longer.
The other is subtler and yet it's very important. An engineer in RMT origin countries earns USD 30-50 a month, he is the upper class. A low wage, low class guy might earn well below USD 20 a month, breaking his back all day long breaking rocks, cleaning dung and similar.
Guess how long will that guy keep RMTing when even being in a sweatshop grinding roids and missions all day long he still earns a lot more than the other guy breaking rocks. Hell will have to almost freeze before that guy stops RMTing.
Quote:
With t0 drops almost reducing to zero, it probably will be profitable again to produce these items.
Not really, T0 items are just condensed minerals. The entry barrier (and thus the possible added value) is about zero. As long as the minerals entering the system are 3 times as much as the system needs, the minerals value will tend to support quotes, where support could drop to close to zero given enough time.
- Auditing & consulting
When looking for investors, please read http://tinyurl.com/n5ys4h + http://tinyurl.com/lrg4oz
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Vlad Wormwing
StarHunt Systematic-Chaos
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Posted - 2010.03.31 12:00:00 -
[51]
Originally by: Bad Bobby
I have to think some more about it but my initial impression is that this is an attempt to reach the progression of high ends > mid ends > low ends (in terms of isk/m3) So perhaps high ends increase, mid ends increase, low ends stay the same or decrease?
How about...
Current levels of oversupply force the prices of all minerals into a downward spiral following insurance payout levels until a new equilibrium is reached whereby oversupply is stopped by lack of reward. Once the equilibrium is reached everything carries on much the same as normal but with a more natural supply and demand dynamic dictating mineral prices.
...I think it would be fun.
The NPC bounties are static.
And while it might be fun it does not mean meaningful. I can already afford 3 fleet fitted battleships per hour or grinding L5 anoms with few accounts thanx to the current insurance dotation on the hulls. With insurance floor knocked out from the hulls tho it might mean that I will be able to afford only 1 or 2 fleet BS per hour of ratting - thus making my loss more meaningful when it happens. Even if mineral prices drop by significant amount.
Overall the changes seem to be well tought thru. We will see how the details turn out ofc.
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Claire Voyant
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Posted - 2010.03.31 13:35:00 -
[52]
Edited by: Claire Voyant on 31/03/2010 13:44:07 File this under "Where this could all go wrong"
What we know:
1. Insurance fraud will be eliminated. People will still suicide gank if it is profitable enough, but no more free ships. Thus a huge demand for minerals has been removed.
2. Adjustments will be made to loot drops and mineral content of drone poo and some asteroids. A reduction in supply certainly, but most of the talk was about rebalancing the mineral supply.
3. The devs expect miners to choose to mine only the most profitable ores which they expect will fine tune the mineral supply and demand rebalancing.
Here is the problem, as I see it. If the devs have misjudged the impact of insurance fraud and macro-mining, mineral prices could fall much more than they expected, thus eliminating almost all economic incentive for real live players to mine. AND removing the economic incentive for player rebalancing though mining.
Macro-miners will still mine hisec ore, even more securely now that there are no more free battleships available to the suicide gankers. Macro-miners will still mine 0.0 ore deep in alliance held territories.
But low sec mining will be even worse than it is now. Even if mid-range minerals are rejiggered, the overall decline in mineral values will make it even less attractive.
I am not making any specific price predictions for individual minerals, and certainly not making any buy recommendations, but what I am saying is that I predict the system will remain broken. Mineral prices will drop dramatically, and where they end up will not be any more balanced than the current situation.
Edit: Of course with much lower mineral prices, suicide ganking while not free would still be pretty darn cheap.
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Saikron
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Posted - 2010.03.31 13:37:00 -
[53]
T1 ship prices will plummet. You people are nuts to be stockpiling minerals IMO. I don't trust CCP to control the drop rates for any minerals in any rational way. There is no way to know which specific minerals are going to crash and which will spike.
I'm betting some minerals will have lower prices than they have ever had before (trit). --------
Don't moderate my sig, bro! |
Shar Tegral
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Posted - 2010.03.31 13:52:00 -
[54]
Originally by: Claire Voyant Macro-miners will still mine hisec ore, even more securely now that there are no more free battleships available to the suicide gankers. Macro-miners will still mine 0.0 ore deep in alliance held territories.
As we all know curing this, Macro-mining, would bring a massive correction to the entire economy. After all, the time value of a bot mining is much less compared to the time value of a person actually mining. Bot has an even lower value than the poor RMT sod that someone tossed into this thread. I guess this my skepticism at this point is akin to what I felt about "alchemy". The numbers, intentions, and perceptions that CCP is using to make these plans are not based upon reality but the distorted game reality that we have. In alchemy it was the duping, here it is macro miners (and collaterally any macro-something). As to suicide gank + insurance, CCP needs to grow a pair of balls and simply go through with earlier plans of "Concorded = 0 insurance". Add in "suicide selected" = 0 Insurance and "Corp Mate killed you" = 0 Insurance. I agree that having insurance payout as a more dynamic factor is inherently a good thing. However this overall blog seems more of someone thinking that they can pull off a "clever" abstraction to cure ills instead of attacking some of the real problems directly. So, not only should CCP grow a pair... they need to stop always thinking that they are so damn clever. It'll spare us all some of the more dramatic fiascos and subsequent apologies. I mean, granted we've supposedly got the most "honest with the customers" developers in the industry. That is only because they keep slipping on their own crap in huge ways and can't hide it - forever.
Wealth, howsoever got, in Eve makes Lords of morons and gentlemen of thieves; Aptitude and intellect are needless here; 'Tis impudence and money that grants fame. |
Markswoman
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Posted - 2010.03.31 14:08:00 -
[55]
What about where this can all go right!
Insurance fraud and suicide ganking on a huge scale is wrong, reduce this and introduce additional demand for minerals (new things to build), and we have a winner.
The focus of the game has to be pvp, mining and manufacturing, and now adding planetary based manufacture/exploration/research.
Those areas need to work together in harmony, insurance fraud and suicide gankers is not the way, any change to accommodate this has to be welcomed in my view.
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2010.03.31 14:12:00 -
[56]
Quote:
And LMAO at market speculation, for like 2 months everybody is going crazy about min prizes going down by nerfing insurance and the day it's sorta final people are stockpiling.
Because they are idiots and don't learn off what happens when you speculate and it goes bad.
It's a bad trader, the one who blindly goes after rumors. News trading is one of the though branches of marketing as is.
Trading is not betting, it's not gambling. It's calculated risk and savy money management (notice, not a general "good sense" management, there are courses about effective money management strategies to adapt to trading strategies).
Furthermore, hoarding zydrine "because drone regions will be nerfed", not only is not a safe bet at all. An analysis with numbers we do not have is required, to see if just doing what's stated will be enough to actually bring in potential for the relevant market to stop spiralling down. Else, it's just a coin toss. Those who guessed the right side of the coin will believe blind speculation pays and will do it again till they get burned and lose lots of their savings.
So what's left? There are things that as long as the full blog is put in practice, they are going to change, and unlike minerals these things can be given some confidence that they'll happen even if the minerals rebalance will result in an epic fail.
I quickly found out 3 candidates that don't rely in the zydrine / megacyte etc. speculation, just on the patch being applied:
1) Lowest confidence (say 60%) but highest reward: a number of related items are going to be bought off (and buy orders will be dumped to create spread). The first days they will skyrocket and those who stockpiled before the patch will be able to achieve substantial gains. The opportunity is short lived though, because the usual trail of slow cows will adapt and start the usual flooding that will completely destroy the profits. Since those items are here to stay and at higher volume than now, in the long term their price will keep dropping till they are worth less than today.
2) Better confidence (80%): a whole category of items will rise in demand and at first the offer won't be able to match them. Decent opportunity to exploit as long as you were prepared. The two good people who group convoed me some days ago might immediately understand what this category is. This category will yield less brisk rise of income but will last a lot longer and will stabilize at a value "forever" (unless new patches increase them) above today's.
3) Best confidence (90%+): a small but high volume category of items will rise by several % (less than the above, but high turnover and available in all of the hubs). At first nobody will notice the fact that there is a category of items that by mere basic logic *cannot* be as widespread as today and will become scarcer. After 1 maybe 2 weeks a global shortage will start a slow rise of value. That rise will slowly grow in profitably till a new equilibrium between demand and offer will be reached then it'll slow down and stabilize. Those with great wallets could make a vast gain with a rate probably near the best bonds.
- Auditing & consulting
When looking for investors, please read http://tinyurl.com/n5ys4h + http://tinyurl.com/lrg4oz
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Jack Coutu
Gallente Duty.
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Posted - 2010.03.31 15:24:00 -
[57]
Originally by: Markswoman What about where this can all go right!
Insurance fraud and suicide ganking on a huge scale is wrong, reduce this and introduce additional demand for minerals (new things to build), and we have a winner.
The focus of the game has to be pvp, mining and manufacturing, and now adding planetary based manufacture/exploration/research.
Those areas need to work together in harmony, insurance fraud and suicide gankers is not the way, any change to accommodate this has to be welcomed in my view.
Someone is really hurt over being suicide ganked. You do realize that most of the time, the cost of ganking someone without insurance will still be totally ignored compared to the vast benefits?
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Claire Voyant
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Posted - 2010.03.31 15:32:00 -
[58]
Some guy has posted Sisi drone loot values over in GD.
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Jack Coutu
Gallente Duty.
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Posted - 2010.03.31 15:35:00 -
[59]
Hmm, megacyte and zydrine.
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Hrodgar Ortal
Minmatar Ma'adim Logistics
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Posted - 2010.03.31 15:47:00 -
[60]
Originally by: Jack Coutu Edited by: Jack Coutu on 31/03/2010 15:36:02 Hmm, megacyte and zydrine.
BUY BUY BUY lol.
Seems a bit premature ;)
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