| Pages: 1 2 3 [4] 5 6 7 :: one page |
| Author |
Thread Statistics | Show CCP posts - 0 post(s) |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar
Vahrokh Consulting
   |
Posted - 2010.04.01 12:10:00 -
[91]
Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha on 01/04/2010 12:10:40
 Quote:
Those are the effects (disregarding t2 as it really doesn't effect the mineral market that much) I've been able to identify.
Basically three downwards pressures on the market and one upwards.
You identified the obvious speculation targets.
Now, since it's speculation it's bad. It's guesswork, it's not strategy.
Now, since everyone and their dog could figure it out, it's bad. It's a cows run, not an opportunity.
If you stopped for a longer time and noticed the mechanically determined consequences that WILL happen instead (even if the patch failed horribly, the "wrong" minerals crashed and so on) then you'd:
- still be speculating but on a narrower risk, where in the worst condition you lose little to nothing, but you can earn and decently well.
- start planning what to do, because you should start "acting" soon enough to have some weeks ahead of you.
- avoid the cows run to slaugther and be in the smaller number of those "doing different" and thus grabbing more pro capita.
On an unrelated matter, I noticed "someone" got it and is already discussing about those "other" and more solid opportunities right on this forum.
-
Auditing & consulting
When looking for investors, please read
http://tinyurl.com/n5ys4h + http://tinyurl.com/lrg4oz
|
Taram Caldar
Royal Black Watch Highlanders
|
Posted - 2010.04.01 12:37:00 -
[92]
Originally by: FunzzeR
Solo mining would never payoff given the current payoff/risk ratio. Organizing into groups that and secure a system might tip the balance much like what is done in 0.0.
You can stop right here and look and see what you wrote.
If you have the firepower to secure a lowsec system you have the firepower to secure a 0.0 system for mining.
Let's think about that for a moment.... if I am a mining outfit... and I've got the firepower to secure a lowsec OR a 0.0 system to mine in.... where would I mine?
Bottom line: There is no way they will ever make lowsec tempting enough to induce any real mining there. Anything you can mine in lowsec you can mine more of, faster in 0.0. The logistics aren't that much harder (in many cases not hard at all) than mining in lowsec the profit potential is far higher and the risk is actually lower.
Market Alerts Mailing List
|
Taram Caldar
Royal Black Watch Highlanders
|
Posted - 2010.04.01 13:31:00 -
[93]
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
On an unrelated matter, I noticed "someone" got it and is already discussing about those "other" and more solid opportunities right on this forum.
I saw that too. Going to be very interesting when that change hits.
Market Alerts Mailing List
|
SpiderWebMayhem
YSS Industries
Shadow of xXDEATHXx
|
Posted - 2010.04.01 14:27:00 -
[94]
Originally by: Hrodgar Ortal
4. Supercap insurance changes => supercaps being used less => reduction in supercap losses => reduction in demand for minerals => downwards pressure
No one is going to stop using supercaps, or even use them less, because of the insurance change. It will just hurt a little more when they are lost.
|
SencneS
Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks
|
Posted - 2010.04.01 14:42:00 -
[95]
Edited by: SencneS on 01/04/2010 14:45:08
I never speculate number wise by objective wise. What is CCP's objective. In the past when one mineral became too pricey (Trit) They stealth buffed Veld in highsec. What some people seem to forget is somethings like what CCP "like" to see, that is their objective, regardless of what changes take place if it doesn't meet their objective more changes will happen until they get there.
Their arbitrarily assigned numbers are
Trit 2
Pyer 8
Mex 32
Iso 128
Nox 512
Zyd 2,048
Megac 8,192
Trit - Check
Pyer - Check
Mex - Check
Iso - Needs a little buff (as in price hike)
Noc - Needs a MAJOR buff
Zyd - Needs a little buff
Megac - Needs a MAJOR buff
It's clear high-sec ors are OK apart from Isogen. From what I understand by what they have said they want T1 to be cheap and disposable. If that is truly the case then Iso, Noc, Zyd, and Megac do not need adjustments but Trit, Pyer, Mex are all doomed for cheaper price. However this does effect T2 mod prices, some require more Minerals then their T1 counterpart. Something like a Major increase in Pyerite supply would effect some T2 mod prices (popular T2 at that).
So what are my predictions...
Compounds have two stages that effect "reward" 1) The minerals that make then, 2) The amount of compounds dropped.
Read it again:-
Originally by: The Dev Blog
The fundamental focus of our changes here was to alter both the quantities dropped of each compound from the entities but also change the quantities of minerals they reprocess to so they more precisely fit with the ratio of materials required by manufacturing and therefore the market demand alongside a general decrease in volume of the loot so will be easier to haul the compounds to station for example.
My predictions... They are changing the Nocxium and Megacyte reprocess numbers, increase by a lot the amount of compounds which focus on Trit and Pyerite... Remember they just don't need to change reprocessing amount, they said right in the first part, "Focus was to alter quantities of each compound" as well as reprocess values.
BUT BUT YOU JUST SAID THOSE DON'T NEED CHANGING!!
They don't, although Trit is a little overpriced, but nothing that really effects much. There is NO NEED to change a Compound that drops reprocesses to Trit and Pyerte, they can just change the amount the drones drop.
Their objective I'm sure is choke the Nocxium and Megacyte dropped from Drones. The change of increasing the compounds that make low-end minerals is already taken care of by reducing the numbers of compounds that drop those. Each Compound will then go though a change in the amount of Nocxium and Megacyte.
Everything people have proposed have MAJOR changes to Drone space. CCP don't work that way, they would rather do something that passively effects the players. While these changes are direct impact of "Profitability" for Drone space they most certainly do not want to change it so much that Drone space becomes a wasteland.
Remember Drones supplies 30% of all minerals (According to that CSM LVV Posted) If they nerf Drone space so much alliances leave it for greener pastures their job has failed.
One last thing to consider here.
If they nerf Nocx and Megac from Compounds coming in to the game, we all know the effect is the price of those minerals will go up, less supply etc. So the "reward" for the Drone remains the same, eventually. Just it has less minerals it produces will be less. Consider it like... I could sell 100 Nocx for 100 ISK each, or 10 Nocxium for 1,000 each. The reward doesn't change just the mineral supply, and that is what I believe CCP are after.
Amarr for Life |
cosmoray
Bella Vista Holdings Corp
|
Posted - 2010.04.01 15:04:00 -
[96]
Sencnes, if what you say is true about drone compounds CCP does not need to alter drop rates.
Currently megacyte only comes from glossy compound and on Sisi the reprocessing of glossy compound drops from 3 to 1. So that is a 66% drop of all megacyte coming from Drone space.
Nocxium currently comes from 4 compounds, the most important being lustering alloy. This dropped from 35 to 12.
Seeing as the four most important alloys/compounds (plush, glossy, opulent, lustering) are probably the most transported and reprocessed a major nerf is easy to implement without affecting drop rates.
|
Hrodgar Ortal
Minmatar
Ma'adim Logistics
|
Posted - 2010.04.01 15:52:00 -
[97]
Originally by: Xanthar Rex
Edited by: Xanthar Rex on 01/04/2010 11:38:13
Edited by: Xanthar Rex on 01/04/2010 11:37:34
Originally by: Hrodgar Ortal
Edited by: Hrodgar Ortal on 01/04/2010 11:17:24
If a>b => prices fall
If b<a => prices rise
edit: changed numbers to letters since it seems it was unclear.
 
(a>b) = (b<a)
In words, both criteria stated are the same, yet has a different outcome?
True, didn't write what I had intended and it came out as nonsense.
|
SencneS
Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks
|
Posted - 2010.04.01 16:33:00 -
[98]
Originally by: cosmoray
Sencnes, if what you say is true about drone compounds CCP does not need to alter drop rates.
Currently megacyte only comes from glossy compound and on Sisi the reprocessing of glossy compound drops from 3 to 1. So that is a 66% drop of all megacyte coming from Drone space.
Nocxium currently comes from 4 compounds, the most important being lustering alloy. This dropped from 35 to 12.
Seeing as the four most important alloys/compounds (plush, glossy, opulent, lustering) are probably the most transported and reprocessed a major nerf is easy to implement without affecting drop rates.
Read between the lines :)
They also said they wanted to balance the amount of minerals being supplied from Drones, so Drone space can be more self sufficient. This means they plan on increasing mineral supply of low end minerals. Been a while since I was in Drone space and killed a few battleship class drones, but I seem to remember they dropped a decent amount of Glossy. This was when drone space opened up so it might be different now.
Remember, the size of the drone dictates how many and of what compound they drop, frigates drop the basic stuff because the "reward" is not great for killing one, I seem to remember that there are by far more battleship class drones in drone space and very little frigates/cruisers. In order to make Drone space self sufficient a major increase in frigates and cruisers or battleships start dropping a significant amount of low end compounds.
The issue with just increasing that drop or increase the frequency of frigate/cruiser class drones would break the balance in risk vs reward. Decreasing the spawn rate of BS Class would nerf Drone space and break mineral supply as people abandon that part of space.
This is why I believe they plan on adjusting drop rates.
Amarr for Life |
Stafen
Killer Koalas
|
Posted - 2010.04.01 16:50:00 -
[99]
All the drone loot drop details have been made public here by CCP Grayscale.
|
cosmoray
Bella Vista Holdings Corp
|
Posted - 2010.04.01 16:50:00 -
[100]
iirc a BS in Drone space drops around 29 plush and like 40+ glossy.
Plush just got a major Trit boost from 3200 to 4097, and pye from 800 to 1027. Glossy just got major boost on mexallon from 210 to 383.
Right there is all the major changes in a BS drop. Huge boost to low ends and a massive nerf to megacyte (3 to 1) and zyd (9 to 3).
At least CCP realises in 0.0 people will chain the BS's for better drops so the big changes have happened on the two big compound/alloy drops that will cause the major difference.
|
SencneS
Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks
|
Posted - 2010.04.01 17:11:00 -
[101]
LOL I thought those numbers given earlier in the thread where speculation and I didn't know a Dev had already given out numbers.
To be honest the only information I went off was the dev blog and what I suspected was correct. At least one part of it. I still believe they will adjust drop rates of compounds in all drones. Because well you know the 1/10 drone complex's spread all over highsec just became pretty profitable. :)
Amarr for Life |
Graysteel
|
Posted - 2010.04.01 17:17:00 -
[102]
If they want more minerals coming from miners why couldn't they just add trit (or any other one or make up a new one) to every type of roid and remove it from any drop?
That way it forces that one mineral to come mining and no where else, and if you add it to every roid it would benefit hi, low, 0.0 and WH. |
Johnette Napolitano
|
Posted - 2010.04.01 17:54:00 -
[103]
Originally by: Stafen
All the drone loot drop details have been made public here by CCP Grayscale.
When he starts out by saying "Ah hell, it's a holiday, have some actual numbers." when today is April Fool's day...? I'm skeptical any numbers on Sisi are accurate until they need to be (patch day). |
Stafen
Killer Koalas
|
Posted - 2010.04.01 18:13:00 -
[104]
Originally by: Johnette Napolitano
Originally by: Stafen
All the drone loot drop details have been made public here by CCP Grayscale.
When he starts out by saying "Ah hell, it's a holiday, have some actual numbers." when today is April Fool's day...? I'm skeptical any numbers on Sisi are accurate until they need to be (patch day).
My hunch is that they may change if they find some better numbers, but at the moment it is there best effort. Judging on the feedback, the numbers sound good.
If you look at the changes to T2 components usage for T2 ships, the numbers pretty much ended up with what was on Sisi, plus a few tweaks. I say that is what will happen here.
|
Shar Tegral
|
Posted - 2010.04.01 18:41:00 -
[105]
Originally by: Johnette Napolitano
I'm skeptical any numbers on Sisi are accurate until they need to be (patch day).
It would not be the first time that CCP has sabotaged speculators. The only people who will definitely know what is going to happen before patch day is CCP.... and anyone on their MSN list.  /joke
Wealth, howsoever got, in Eve makes
Lords of morons and gentlemen of thieves;
Aptitude and intellect are needless here;
'Tis impudence and money that grants fame. |
mourningdawn
|
Posted - 2010.04.01 18:45:00 -
[106]
I had a big long tl;dr post written out and decided I could simplify. So here is my only insight: I am very sure that there is a reason Hammerhead's blog is linked in the opening paragraph of this economic fixes blog. Read both together.
As far as what to do about it, well buy low sell high. 
Also, to the speculators in Megacyte the other day: thank you. Rest assured your isk has a good home and I will feed it, care for it, and name it George.
|
Doytard
FaDoyToy
|
Posted - 2010.04.01 20:10:00 -
[107]
some thoughts of mine
on the drone poo. looking at glossy and plush the new values follow the building curve with some extra Mex and Nocx. (I'm assuming these will be the only ones really picked up, and I'm only looking at t1 so ignoring the opulent) I guess depending on what exactly people pick up there could be a surplus of lowends, not exactly sure what is happening on the roid front, but that surplus might not be too bad as it may balance out with ABC mining.
t1 manufacturing... lol. I think the only use of t1 manufacturing will be for input into t2 production. I doubt it will ever be profitable to build t1 items for sale.
as for t1 ships I see them taking a bit of a loss, at least initially. they should stabilize at some point. but I guess the big question is how much of a mineral sink was the Insurance fraud/exchange.
I just wonder if there will be a rebalanced on tag drops, like the shortage on certain tags, see the Republic Fleet captain tags. ~900k in jita, where npc price is 60k. and to a lesser extent the Federation Navy Colonel tags. get more than enough II tags, and not enough I tags. (no issues with some supply and demand, but it makes me wonder about the ratios going on)
but if it is just the crap pirate tags... meh.
also not quite sure what the loot change will do to marauder demand. guess we will have to wait to see what they do.
Hi how are you
|
Tehg Rhind
|
Posted - 2010.04.01 21:21:00 -
[108]
Ooph.
As I undrstand I the problem with insurance fraud was that it kept mineral prices artificially high by creating a bottom. Below X value of combined minerals you could build a ship and blow it up. From this I think I hear a lot of people speculating that this will crash the low end mineral market.
It won't.
The biggest item on this list isn't insurance stuff. It's ML0 items being removed from missions. This is going to kill my current trading system, but as the saying goes, adapt or die. You will definitely see a return to profitability in manufacturing these items, although I'm not so sure how much that will be (as most players don't use them.)
The biggest effect is going to be seen in the minerals market. I hear a lot of people talking about how zydrine/megacyte/nocx/isogen prices are going to go up. My bet is that trit/pyr/Mex are going to skyrocket, as they are the primary minerals grabbed from mission loot. This will tank the prices of the other minerals.
Good news (maybe) is that this will make minng a profitable venture again. I doubt it will affect low sec/null sec mining in any way other than badly. Mainly this will make high sec mining more profitable.
|
Capt Fossil
Gallente
|
Posted - 2010.04.01 22:29:00 -
[109]
Quote:
But from what I have seen in my own region reprocessed mission items make up a far larger part of the low end minerals market than drone alloys do the high end.
In my region macro miners produce almost 50% of the low end minerals, at least what I have been buying. Without them I would expect an increase across the board, but as it is I see Trit especially tanking if Insurance fraud goes away.
|
Fitz VonHeise
Eye Bee Em
Stellar Defense Alliance
|
Posted - 2010.04.01 22:30:00 -
[110]
If you look at what Zyd and Megac prices were a year ago... mining high ends has become much less profitable. I think CCP is trying to fix the high ends... to rebalance the prices back closer to where they were. (Miners in 0.0/WH space are suppose to have high reward for high risk)
|
Tehg Rhind
|
Posted - 2010.04.01 22:43:00 -
[111]
Hmmm. Tritanium probably will tank. I don't generate as much of that (as a percentage of the market) as I do pyerite and mexallon. Pyerite and Mex though.... I usually fillmy regions major hubs top buy order each day. Gonna need to do the maths when I get home.
|
Syds Sinclair
J0urneys End
Journeys End Alliance
|
Posted - 2010.04.01 22:45:00 -
[112]
..Speculating from the perspective that the blog hinted at a shortage of mins after the next expantion. Banning of all (or most) macro miners? Not just RMT macros, but even the player macro community that do it just for isk. If they were all gone, there would be a HUGE shortage of mins.
Buy my BPOs |
Breaker77
Gallente
Reclamation Industries
|
Posted - 2010.04.01 22:46:00 -
[113]
Originally by: Fitz VonHeise
(Miners in 0.0/WH space are suppose to have high reward for high risk)
While true, I have found from experience that mining in WH space is much safer than highsec. Even more if you have a POS there. All the highend ores can be found in a C1 WH which won't even allow a battleship into it!!! Seriously, how risky is that??
Stay aligned, hit the scan button. No ****tards waiting to gank you because "my 1337 PvP skills let me kill a hulk that couldn't shoot back so my KB looks better". No hulkageddon. None of that stupid highsec bull**** that goes on.
|
Fitz VonHeise
Eye Bee Em
Stellar Defense Alliance
|
Posted - 2010.04.01 23:00:00 -
[114]
Originally by: Breaker77
...mining in WH space is much safer than highsec...
Well... my point really is that compaired to a year ago all zyd and megc prices have tanked. High end miners earn less then half what they use to. If it tanks any more you might find many miners leaving 0.0 space... or just parking their hulks like some here have said they already did.
|
Kanatta Jing
|
Posted - 2010.04.02 00:06:00 -
[115]
Originally by: Venkul Mul
Originally by: Letrange
Originally by: Bad Bobby
Low-sec gets some love. Will it be enough to significantly encourage low-sec mining as opposed to 0.0/WH mining? Will it be a boost to piracy?
no
As usual, players will go directly to 0.0 to mine after leaving high sec (if will get any profit after the change).
With the nice industrial upgrades they will have plenty of the boosted low sec minerals to mine and less risk.
I don't see why someone would chose the "play stupid" option where you get less isk and you have more risk.
Funny thing...
This is the safety bar, Use it to determine what area is safest and what are is most dangerous in EVE.
Highsec>blue nulsec>Wormhole Space>neutral nulsec>red nulsec>lowsec
|
Tehg Rhind
|
Posted - 2010.04.02 03:42:00 -
[116]
all speculation aside. I think we can all agree that mineral supply is going to decrease across the board. The removal of mission loot is going to remove a large quantity of mineral supply. What it will hit the worst remains to be seen, and is within the realm of speculation.
|
Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar
Vahrokh Consulting
|
Posted - 2010.04.02 07:15:00 -
[117]
Quote:
It's clear high-sec ors are OK apart from Isogen.
... huge discussion about Nocx among others
How comes that if needed I can easily mine Nocxium to make:
- T1 basic mods to later use to make T2 versions
- Battleships
- Freigthers
all in hi sec, at regular belts?
Quote:
I just wonder if there will be a rebalanced on tag drops, like the shortage on certain tags, see the Republic Fleet captain tags. ~900k in jita, where npc price is 60k.
They cannot rebalance tag drops as it's just basic demand and offer. Stop all grinding Caldari like chimpanzes and the shortage will magically drop like a stone, LP per isk will finally become better than the LOL it's today and lag will improve.
One if my alts is in NPC Caldari chat (SAK) all what I listen all day long by new players:
- "Hi, I just started today, when can I farm L4" (guess how many low level and low tier tags this yields?)
- "Hi, I just started today, they told me to roll Caldari because it's those that make money quick".
-
Auditing & consulting
When looking for investors, please read
http://tinyurl.com/n5ys4h + http://tinyurl.com/lrg4oz
|
Doytard
FaDoyToy
|
Posted - 2010.04.02 08:32:00 -
[118]
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
They cannot rebalance tag drops as it's just basic demand and offer. Stop all grinding Caldari like chimpanzes and the shortage will magically drop like a stone, LP per isk will finally become better than the LOL it's today and lag will improve.
One if my alts is in NPC Caldari chat (SAK) all what I listen all day long by new players:
- "Hi, I just started today, when can I farm L4" (guess how many low level and low tier tags this yields?)
- "Hi, I just started today, they told me to roll Caldari because it's those that make money quick".
care to tell me where I should run missions to get these awesome kill minmatar missions then?
Hi how are you
|
Kerfira
Audaces Fortuna Iuvat
|
Posted - 2010.04.02 11:15:00 -
[119]
Originally by: Hrodgar Ortal
1. T1m0 loot reduction => less minerals => upwards price pressure
2. Mineral distribution changes => downwards pressure in general on the minerals they are boosting in 0.0 (mostly trit and pye I expect)
3. Insurance made dynamic => downward spiral on minerals (this effect is uncertain, it depends on IF the m0 loot reduction are larger than the usage of minerals by "insurance fraud")
4. Supercap insurance changes => supercaps being used less => reduction in supercap losses => reduction in demand for minerals => downwards pressure
Your point #4 is speculative and probably mostly wrong. People will still use supercaps pretty much just as they have. If mineral prices drop, more people will use them.
You also forgot one:
5. If mineral prices drop, less macro-miners will mine and convert to macro-missioning. This'll not be an upwards/downwards pressure, but will act as a stabiliser for whatever equilibrium is found.
I base this one on a fact that most people ignore. Macro-miners are the group of EVE 'players' who're MOST sensitive to price drops!
Personally, based ONLY on the content of this change, prices will probably drop (a lot), mainly because of your #3. It depends a lot of how much meta 0 loot is removed, and how large a percentage of total mineral production it is. We have no figures for this!
One factor that could confuse the figures is if the campaign up north turns into a real (virtual) bloodbath. If thousands of capitals and hundreds of supercaps are lost, that alone might put enough of an unknown factor into the equation that it'll be difficult to discern cause and effect in the mineral price changes that will happen.
In the end, I do not believe any of us have enough information to predict what will happen. We all have our best guesses and beliefs, but there's simply not enough information for us to make any educated estimates....
Which is exactly as it should be
Originally by: CCP Wrangler
EVE isn't designed to just look like a cold, dark and harsh world, it's designed to be a cold, dark and harsh world.
|
Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar
Vahrokh Consulting
|
Posted - 2010.04.02 11:59:00 -
[120]
Quote:
care to tell me where I should run missions to get these awesome kill minmatar missions then?
Are you trolling?
-
Auditing & consulting
When looking for investors, please read
http://tinyurl.com/n5ys4h + http://tinyurl.com/lrg4oz
|
| |
|
| Pages: 1 2 3 [4] 5 6 7 :: one page |
| First page | Previous page | Next page | Last page |