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Tehg Rhind
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Posted - 2010.04.02 14:55:00 -
[121]
A lot of the speculation on the affects of insurance are based on the assumption that CCP won't be using any control loops to manage the insurance change payouts with respect to mineral prices. I sincerely hope this is not the case.
This system should be monitored by something called a PID loop. It's a common tool used to regulate the speed and strength of correction factors. Temperature on a reactor is a common example.
If you tune a PID loop wrong, or (god forbid) don't use one, you see massive fluctuations and oscillations in your controlled system. This seems to be what a lot of people here are concerned about. If, on the other hand CCP uses a conservative loop, then changes will occur much more slowly.
This would mean that insurance rates would still maintain a bottom as they slowly slid down, until they hit their sweet spot.
Think of it like a bathtub. You ease into it, you don't jump in, realize it's too hot, then jump out, then jump back in. Or like your shower. When it's too cold do you turn off all the cold water, then it gets too hot and you turn it all the way to cold?
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clixoras
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Posted - 2010.04.02 16:10:00 -
[122]
Edited by: clixoras on 02/04/2010 16:14:03
 Originally by: Tehg Rhind
all speculation aside. I think we can all agree that mineral supply is going to decrease across the board. The removal of mission loot is going to remove a large quantity of mineral supply. What it will hit the worst remains to be seen, and is within the realm of speculation.
A 'side-effect' could be that people will start to salvage their missions less and less and m1-m4 + salvage will get more expensive as will.
edit: about the supercaps. The deployment will be a massive psychological advantage. Parties must be sure of their capacities when they are deploying one right ? ;) So. i dont see them being deployed less.
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Breaker77
Gallente
Reclamation Industries
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Posted - 2010.04.02 16:19:00 -
[123]
Originally by: clixoras
edit: about the supercaps. The deployment will be a massive psychological advantage. Parties must be sure of their capacities when they are deploying one right ? ;) So. i dont see them being deployed less.
TQ can't handle 500 person battles now, so unless thats fixed there won't be any battles as everyone with a supercap will want to outnumber the enemy by 10:1.
I think CCP has just increased the demand for blobing 
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Taram Caldar
Royal Black Watch Highlanders
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Posted - 2010.04.02 16:57:00 -
[124]
Originally by: Doytard
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
They cannot rebalance tag drops as it's just basic demand and offer. Stop all grinding Caldari like chimpanzes and the shortage will magically drop like a stone, LP per isk will finally become better than the LOL it's today and lag will improve.
One if my alts is in NPC Caldari chat (SAK) all what I listen all day long by new players:
- "Hi, I just started today, when can I farm L4" (guess how many low level and low tier tags this yields?)
- "Hi, I just started today, they told me to roll Caldari because it's those that make money quick".
care to tell me where I should run missions to get these awesome kill minmatar missions then?
Let's see... which faction is the minmatar enemy... you get 3 guesses.
Market Alerts Mailing List
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adriaans
Amarr
Ankaa.
Nair Al-Zaurak
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Posted - 2010.04.02 18:08:00 -
[125]
Originally by: Taram Caldar
Originally by: Doytard
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
They cannot rebalance tag drops as it's just basic demand and offer. Stop all grinding Caldari like chimpanzes and the shortage will magically drop like a stone, LP per isk will finally become better than the LOL it's today and lag will improve.
One if my alts is in NPC Caldari chat (SAK) all what I listen all day long by new players:
- "Hi, I just started today, when can I farm L4" (guess how many low level and low tier tags this yields?)
- "Hi, I just started today, they told me to roll Caldari because it's those that make money quick".
care to tell me where I should run missions to get these awesome kill minmatar missions then?
Let's see... which faction is the minmatar enemy... you get 3 guesses.
funny how my amarr mission alt only gets anti-matar missions on average every 25-50 missions... because that's how rare they are in my experience.
my FW alt however could potentially net a lot of them.. but then again, simply blitzing those are better
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McCRAZY
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Posted - 2010.04.02 20:27:00 -
[126]
Well after reading the blog extensively i think it could of gone a lot worse but i was wondering if anyone has considered how the reduction in insurance fraud will affect salvage prices. I imagine its a very small percentage of salvage overall but still something to consider i guess.
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Breaker77
Gallente
Reclamation Industries
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Posted - 2010.04.02 20:29:00 -
[127]
Originally by: McCRAZY
i was wondering if anyone has considered how the reduction in insurance fraud will affect salvage prices. I imagine its a very small percentage of salvage overall but still something to consider i guess.
Another thing to consider is that if T2 insurance does get a boost and more people start taking risks with T2 ships, how will T2 rig prices react if more T2 salvage is available?
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cosmoray
Bella Vista Holdings Corp
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Posted - 2010.04.02 21:49:00 -
[128]
I am still surprised that no one has mentioned the market effect of the drone alloy/compound changes (reprocessing value)?
Lucent, cough, cough*
For those who have not done the calculations, price change:
Plush = 93.85%
Glossy = 116.21%
Opulent = 100%
lustering = 104.08%
motley = 114.47%
dark = 114.62%
lucent = 160.29%
gleaming = 105.09%
precious = 100%
crystal = 81%
condensed = 116.26%
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Hel O'Ween
Men On A Mission
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Posted - 2010.04.03 08:59:00 -
[129]
Originally by: SencneS
What is CCP's objective. In the past when one mineral became too pricey (Trit) They stealth buffed Veld in highsec.
Just a reminder: the stealth Veldspar respawn buff wasn't implemented due to its price. This was only the symptom. It was meant as a strike against macro miners, because all belts were mined empty by macros shortly after they spawned, leaving real miners without anything to mine. Wasn't it even a byproduct of Holy Rage?
Of course, this did influence Trit price, but ingame market economy wasn't the driving force behind this change.
--
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Claire Voyant
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Posted - 2010.04.03 11:03:00 -
[130]
Originally by: Hel O'Ween
Originally by: SencneS
What is CCP's objective. In the past when one mineral became too pricey (Trit) They stealth buffed Veld in highsec.
Just a reminder: the stealth Veldspar respawn buff wasn't implemented due to its price. This was only the symptom. It was meant as a strike against macro miners, because all belts were mined empty by macros shortly after they spawned, leaving real miners without anything to mine. Wasn't it even a byproduct of Holy Rage?
Of course, this did influence Trit price, but ingame market economy wasn't the driving force behind this change.
Yes and no. Trit prices were rising dramatically after Unholy Rage and people started complaining, so the respawn rate was changed and now people complain about cheap trit. So CCP has reacted to market prices in the past, at least when their actions were the apparent cause of the initial problem, but it shouldn't give us any reassurance that their "corrections" will be well thought out and measured.
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Capt Fossil
Gallente
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Posted - 2010.04.03 14:19:00 -
[131]
Quote:
but it shouldn't give us any reassurance that their "corrections" will be well thought out and measured.
If they do not bring it on along with a major assault on macro-mining it's an exercise in futility. That's alot of paid accounts to close..........
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RJ Nobel
Nobel Research and Development
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Posted - 2010.04.03 16:39:00 -
[132]
Originally by: Claire Voyant
Yes and no. Trit prices were rising dramatically after Unholy Rage and people started complaining, so the respawn rate was changed and now people complain about cheap trit. So CCP has reacted to market prices in the past, at least when their actions were the apparent cause of the initial problem, but it shouldn't give us any reassurance that their "corrections" will be well thought out and measured.
The market logs, they show nothing. Using Jita prices, trit did not "spike" after Unholy Rage. It actually peaked in price around late April and was in a gradual decline all summer. The veldspar buff following Unholy Rage simply accelerated the decline.
Originally by: Capt Fossil
If they do not bring it on along with a major assault on macro-mining it's an exercise in futility. That's alot of paid accounts to close..........
Maybe. Logic would say that there's two types of macro-miners - those in it to generate ISK, and those in it to generate RL income via RMT. The ISK generators most likely fund their accounts via subscription to maximize their ISK revenue (one macro-miner can pay for a lot of PVP, much moreso than simply selling GTC's). This is a "victimless crime" - it's against the rules, but it's hard to articulate a specific injury.
On the other hand, RMT macrominers are in it to generate RL income. They use PLEX's to fund their accounts and make their income off selling whatever additional ISK each account produces. This IS harmful to Eve, and it's exactly why CCP put so much effort into Un/Holy Rage. Shutting down RMT macroer's probably has very little impact on CCP's subscription profit, but it makes a sizeable difference for the game economy (and server performance).
As a side-note, I don't think that CCP has any real concern about macro-mining. Much of their official discussion of RMT talks about macro-missioners, which, in theory, make FAR more ISK than miners. I suspect that CCP's next action against macro-miners won't be a ban-wave - it'll be a revamp of the mining mechanics.
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Diomedes Calypso
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Posted - 2010.04.03 18:22:00 -
[133]
How often has teh basket of ores been above the floor ?
Also, do you guys think that CCP with the data they have has a good handle on how much ore is being consumed via that "ier" or whatever you call the sale-of-ships-to-npcs-via-insuring-and-intentionally-destructing?
Have they supplied any guesses? (they'd need to do some gueess work and use some heuristics based on observations)
How about minerals via reprocessing of mission loot? (that they could come close to pinning down)
Anyone have their own guesses for the two figures? I suppose if they reduced the supply to meet the current isk sink they'd be ok...
I also wonder if they've seen an alarming trend in the volume of the ier which would suggest that the growth mined or is far exceeding the ore sink of normal play ship losses and that meeting the current ore balance would do nothing to keep the trend of increased mining from dropping prices til the biggest producers stopped mining more.
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SpiderWebMayhem
YSS Industries
Shadow of xXDEATHXx
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Posted - 2010.04.03 20:58:00 -
[134]
Originally by: cosmoray
I am still surprised that no one has mentioned the market effect of the drone alloy/compound changes (reprocessing value)?
Lucent, cough, cough*
For those who have not done the calculations, price change:
Plush = 93.85%
Glossy = 116.21%
Opulent = 100%
lustering = 104.08%
motley = 114.47%
dark = 114.62%
lucent = 160.29%
gleaming = 105.09%
precious = 100%
crystal = 81%
condensed = 116.26%
It is mostly pointless to use this as a comparison since after the patch, mineral pricing will change dramatically. You just can't predict what a particular alloy will be worth because we have no way of knowing how the insurance and meta0 changes will affect prices.
Alloys could be pure gold or complete crap, depending on how things settle out.
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Tehg Rhind
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Posted - 2010.04.03 21:51:00 -
[135]
Originally by: SpiderWebMayhem
Originally by: cosmoray
I am still surprised that no one has mentioned the market effect of the drone alloy/compound changes (reprocessing value)?
Lucent, cough, cough*
For those who have not done the calculations, price change:
Plush = 93.85%
Glossy = 116.21%
Opulent = 100%
lustering = 104.08%
motley = 114.47%
dark = 114.62%
lucent = 160.29%
gleaming = 105.09%
precious = 100%
crystal = 81%
condensed = 116.26%
It is mostly pointless to use this as a comparison since after the patch, mineral pricing will change dramatically. You just can't predict what a particular alloy will be worth because we have no way of knowing how the insurance and meta0 changes will affect prices.
Alloys could be pure gold or complete crap, depending on how things settle out.
\
This. You have 3 major changes coming into mineral prices simultaneously, with some other minor ones as well. All of these will have direct affects on the mineral market, as well as confounding inter-relationships. Anyone that can correctly predict the final outcome should just quit EvE and go invent a new design of experiments/mathematical/financial modelling system and retire in Hawaii.
I still think the only thing that's known for sure is that 1 source of minerals is completely dissapearing. If they add enough ML equipment to the mission drops you could still see mineral income maintained, but I think that defeats the purpose CCP was going for in the first place.
Take for instance Dual Heavy Beam Lasers. Those sell at a daily volume of ~2-3k in forge. Their mineral value is ~450k (low ball). This item alone generates ~1 bil in minerals. For comparison the entire tritanium market of forge is worth ~120 billion daily. Pyr is ~40 bil, and mex is ~50 bil. So this 1 item (which is mainly composed of those 3 minerals) accounts for ~.5% of the mineral market.
That's ONE item. Here's some other ones.
Dual 250mm Railgun I = 300 mil
Dual Heavy Pulse laser = 360 mil
250mm railgun i = 600 mil
large proton smartbomb = 350 mil
My math may be a little off on this, as I dont have access to my....well to my Access db, but its generally not that far off (although I may have missed a 0 in one of these). These are some of the higher value reprocessing items, and are mostly composed of trit, pyr, and mex.
I still want to look at the math on drone alloys to see if they are going to be increasing the volume of alloys enough to compensate, but from what I have seen the alloys don't include a bump to mexallon, which is a huge part of the value calculation for these.
And to be honest if CCP decides to compensate for the loss of minerals by increasing drone alloy quantities I may just stop trading, as that would narrow the focus in trading down even farther than it already is, which I think is a shame (big fan of trading needing to require handling 100+ buy orders. 5 order traders are....well they do make a lot of money. Can't argue with that.)
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Seminole Sun
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Posted - 2010.04.04 01:06:00 -
[136]
Is it unreasonable to expect the end goal of these changes to be a reording of profitability on the roids that somewhat resembles risk?
So Veldspar, Scordite, etc should be the LEAST profitable with the low-sec stuff in the middle and the null-sec stuff at the top. You could back in to some rough estimates for mineral prices from that. Any change almost CERTAINLY has to lead to an increased value in Nocx (which, I think, we all agree is wildly undervalued based purely on the economics of production).
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ChrisIsherwood
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Posted - 2010.04.04 03:04:00 -
[137]
Originally by: Seminole Sun
Is it unreasonable to expect the end goal of these changes to be a reording of profitability on the roids that somewhat resembles risk?
The most common objection is that 0.0, especially in an upgraded system your alliance controls, can return better minerals and yet be less risk than losec.
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Venkul Mul
Gallente
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Posted - 2010.04.04 06:42:00 -
[138]
Originally by: Breaker77
Originally by: McCRAZY
i was wondering if anyone has considered how the reduction in insurance fraud will affect salvage prices. I imagine its a very small percentage of salvage overall but still something to consider i guess.
Another thing to consider is that if T2 insurance does get a boost and more people start taking risks with T2 ships, how will T2 rig prices react if more T2 salvage is available?
In theory there will be an increase in T1 rig prices as less mission runners and ratters will be looting and salvaging the NPC ships.
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Celia Therone
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Posted - 2010.04.04 07:34:00 -
[139]
Originally by: Seminole Sun
Is it unreasonable to expect the end goal of these changes to be a reording of profitability on the roids that somewhat resembles risk?
So Veldspar, Scordite, etc should be the LEAST profitable with the low-sec stuff in the middle and the null-sec stuff at the top. You could back in to some rough estimates for mineral prices from that. Any change almost CERTAINLY has to lead to an increased value in Nocx (which, I think, we all agree is wildly undervalued based purely on the economics of production).
My guess is that eventually you'll end up with two types of asteroids: High sec asteroids (Veldspar, Pyroxeres, Plagioclase, Scordite, Omber and Kernite) which should all be locked in to about the same isk per cubic meter. With a few possible outlyers based on Materials for War Preparation, rarity (you can run out of scordite for example, and kernite doesn't spawn in all regions).
Then you'll have everything else which will be mined almost exclusively in zero sec and wormholes and will stabilize at approximately the same isk per cubic meter which will be some (fairly small) multiple of the high sec m3 price.
Depending on how brutal they are with meta 0 and drone loot those may still distort mineral prices.
Still a lot of unknowns and it's a huge change so I wouldn't be surprised to see some huge swings on the way. Like crisis selling of trit when the patch goes live forcing the price way down. However, depending on how they do insurance, it's possible that the insurance fraudsters will be able to keep going and smooth the potential crashes out.
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar
Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2010.04.04 10:57:00 -
[140]
Quote:
The most common objection is that 0.0, especially in an upgraded system your alliance controls, can return better minerals and yet be less risk than losec.
Maybe, just maybe, this is another push to do what CCP wanted: kick people in their butts till they move to such 0.0. Aka Dominion in a nutshell.
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Auditing & consulting
When looking for investors, please read
http://tinyurl.com/n5ys4h + http://tinyurl.com/lrg4oz
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Breaker77
Gallente
Reclamation Industries
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Posted - 2010.04.04 12:13:00 -
[141]
Originally by: Venkul Mul
In theory there will be an increase in T1 rig prices as less mission runners and ratters will be looting and salvaging the NPC ships.
Another reason to make wrecks scannable to open up the salvaging profession.
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Venkul Mul
Gallente
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Posted - 2010.04.04 12:26:00 -
[142]
Edited by: Venkul Mul on 04/04/2010 12:28:13
Originally by: Breaker77
Originally by: Venkul Mul
In theory there will be an increase in T1 rig prices as less mission runners and ratters will be looting and salvaging the NPC ships.
Another reason to make wrecks scannable to open up the salvaging profession.
What make you think that reducing even more PvE combat in low sec will make EVE better?
Probing wrecks mean that the missions locations, encounters and complex will be found in a few seconds if there is even a few wrecks in them and that even if you warp away to a safespot to avoid probers the location were you were will be discovered making useless to return there.
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Breaker77
Gallente
Reclamation Industries
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Posted - 2010.04.04 12:45:00 -
[143]
Originally by: Venkul Mul
Probing wrecks mean that the missions locations, encounters and complex will be found in a few seconds if there is even a few wrecks in them and that even if you warp away to a safespot to avoid probers the location were you were will be discovered making useless to return there.
 You are completely wrong. Right now you can scan out ships so if someone is running a mission/plex/whatever in lowsec they will be found. Scan out the ship, warp to it, and then they know the location of the site making it useless to return there anyway. It's impossible to make a ship unscannable and still have enough tank and DPS to run a site in lowsec.
I'm talking about the thousands of wrecks that no one salvages that are just floating in space with no way to scan them down?
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Jack Coutu
Gallente
Duty.
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Posted - 2010.04.04 14:22:00 -
[144]
Originally by: mourningdawn
I had a big long tl;dr post written out and decided I could simplify. So here is my only insight: I am very sure that there is a reason Hammerhead's blog is linked in the opening paragraph of this economic fixes blog. Read both together.
As far as what to do about it, well buy low sell high. 
Also, to the speculators in Megacyte the other day: thank you. Rest assured your isk has a good home and I will feed it, care for it, and name it George.
Bet you feel like an ass atm.
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adriaans
Amarr
Ankaa.
Nair Al-Zaurak
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Posted - 2010.04.04 15:27:00 -
[145]
Edited by: adriaans on 04/04/2010 15:28:40
Originally by: Breaker77
Originally by: Venkul Mul
Probing wrecks mean that the missions locations, encounters and complex will be found in a few seconds if there is even a few wrecks in them and that even if you warp away to a safespot to avoid probers the location were you were will be discovered making useless to return there.
You are completely wrong. Right now you can scan out ships so if someone is running a mission/plex/whatever in lowsec they will be found. Scan out the ship, warp to it, and then they know the location of the site making it useless to return there anyway. It's impossible to make a ship unscannable and still have enough tank and DPS to run a site in lowsec.
I'm talking about the thousands of wrecks that no one salvages that are just floating in space with no way to scan them down?
a tengu does that just fine for a fitting of merely 65 mill at the cheapest (+ ship + subs obviously). Doesn't even need implants.
(stats: 600 dps, 200 dps tank which is more than enough when AB speed is 650+, does any low sec plex and mission without problem, although if you're in a plex you can be found as they can probe the plex)
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Support the Field Command ship boost: Here |
Capt Fossil
Gallente
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Posted - 2010.04.04 17:22:00 -
[146]
High end minerals have been climbing all weekend in Jita.
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Rodarine
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Posted - 2010.04.04 19:05:00 -
[147]
Originally by: Capt Fossil
High end minerals have been climbing all weekend in Jita.
Because peopel with way too much money and looking for soem excitement in a rather boring game (trade wise) are ooking to try and speculate thatthe prices of thoseminerals will rise due to a lack of loot refining. Which may or may not happen, but is mostly dependant upon whetjer nul sec and low sec mining picks up. Everyone already knows that hi sec minerals are going to crash and crash hard. Trit and Pyer are plummeting. But speculators are hoping that people wont mine the hi end minerals and thus what they have will be a good supply and will sell for a premium. So they are relying on miners unwillingness to risk anything rather than a game mechanic. If the miners do in fact go and mine thse minerals these guys will maybe take a abth, unless some work around or 'fix' comes to help artificially prop up mineral prices accross the board.
As it is right now even weeks before this update is coming out, demand for most things is nearly non existant. Mineral channel is a ghost town, while a couple weeks ago there were so many buyer that sellers couldnt keep up. Now no one is buying and sellers (which were scarce to begin with) dont even talk inthere. Unless it about religion or politics.
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Jack Coutu
Gallente
Duty.
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Posted - 2010.04.04 22:02:00 -
[148]
Originally by: Rodarine
Originally by: Capt Fossil
High end minerals have been climbing all weekend in Jita.
Because peopel with way too much money and looking for soem excitement in a rather boring game (trade wise) are ooking to try and speculate thatthe prices of thoseminerals will rise due to a lack of loot refining. Which may or may not happen, but is mostly dependant upon whetjer nul sec and low sec mining picks up. Everyone already knows that hi sec minerals are going to crash and crash hard. Trit and Pyer are plummeting. But speculators are hoping that people wont mine the hi end minerals and thus what they have will be a good supply and will sell for a premium. So they are relying on miners unwillingness to risk anything rather than a game mechanic. If the miners do in fact go and mine thse minerals these guys will maybe take a abth, unless some work around or 'fix' comes to help artificially prop up mineral prices accross the board.
As it is right now even weeks before this update is coming out, demand for most things is nearly non existant. Mineral channel is a ghost town, while a couple weeks ago there were so many buyer that sellers couldnt keep up. Now no one is buying and sellers (which were scarce to begin with) dont even talk inthere. Unless it about religion or politics.
Don't think so Rodarine, people are buying highends for a reason. While you may consider the mega prices "inflated" they are nothing compared to old prices. The drone regions rebalance mixed with the nerfing of mission loot will hit high ends hard. I know alot of it is speculation but even AFTER major speculation somethings remain high (technetium). Eithier way I would imagine those who bought alot of mega at the 2k to 2.3k range will do quite well. I invested in this myself once I saw the changes occuring and bought a few regions out. I am sure many more will hope on now, and they in my opinion are right too. High sec mining is also prime macro mining. Not many are willing to afk macro it in 0.0. Mission runners will no longer be dumping high ends into the markets and miners in 0.0 aren't a majority. In all the market may be volatile but when has it not been?
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xylopia
Gallente
Center for Advanced Studies
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Posted - 2010.04.05 00:35:00 -
[149]
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
1) Lowest confidence (say 60%)
2) Better confidence (80%)
3) Best confidence (90%+)
Thank you Vaerah for the sweet post. You've cleared my mind very throughly with that. |
Doytard
FaDoyToy
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Posted - 2010.04.05 01:38:00 -
[150]
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
Quote:
care to tell me where I should run missions to get these awesome kill minmatar missions then?
Are you trolling?
dead serious. I would love a source of highly overpriced tags. because afaik there is a level 3 mission that drops 2 of them, and enemies abound 5/5 drops 4 (I think I might have had some already and mixed them) of them. did I mention both are offered in caldari space!?
is there an awesome level 5 out there? (sorry I can't remember exactly what drops them, but it isn't a battleship, and most level 5s look pretty battleship heavy)
Faction warfare maybe?
or do people have to move to angel space to get kill minmatar missions to get tags for the amarr lp store
Hi how are you
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