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Bad Bobby
The Dirty Rotten Scoundrels
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Posted - 2010.03.30 15:15:00 -
[1]
It's here.
Looking forward to interesting times both for PvP and the market.
I'm liking much of the proposal, although the final balance of insurance payouts is still uncertain. The somewhat vague changes to mineral sources look good to me.
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Breaker77
Gallente
Reclamation Industries
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Posted - 2010.03.30 15:23:00 -
[2]
 Quote:
On the high end game play side of this is the role of strategic ship classes as valuable targets. Here we refer to them as supercapitals, the largest classes of ships in the game which cannot dock in stations. Currently they get a default payout of 40% of the old static value of the ship which is around 5 billion ISK for supercarriers and 20 billion for titans.
The idea is that these are cut to a fraction of their current payout values so they might only get 1-10% for example of the base build value of their ships. This is done with the intention of making strategic ship classes be more valuable targets and their death have much stronger meaning and value.
They are just making the titan BPC business harder and harder 
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Bad Bobby
The Dirty Rotten Scoundrels
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Posted - 2010.03.30 15:27:00 -
[3]
Originally by: "Ze Blog"
We have our own ideas for how much of the full insurance value we want to payout for each ship class which generally is 100% for Tech 1 ship groups, 20-60% for Tech 2 and 100% for Tech 3 ships
Increased affordability of T2 ships, particularly the ones that get the 60%. Increased affordability of T3 ships. Increased demand for these ships will be a likely result.
Originally by: "Ze Blog"
The initial changes will introduce higher amounts of low end minerals such as tritanium, pyerite or mexallon to low sec
Low-sec gets some love. Will it be enough to significantly encourage low-sec mining as opposed to 0.0/WH mining? Will it be a boost to piracy?
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Letrange
Minmatar
Chaosstorm Corporation
Apoapsis Multiversal Consortium
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Posted - 2010.03.30 15:34:00 -
[4]
Originally by: Bad Bobby
Low-sec gets some love. Will it be enough to significantly encourage low-sec mining as opposed to 0.0/WH mining? Will it be a boost to piracy?
no
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FunzzeR
Death of Virtue
MeatSausage EXPRESS
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Posted - 2010.03.30 15:41:00 -
[5]
Originally by: Letrange
no
Sadly this, some people are just too risk adverse no matter how many incentives are provided.
PRAISE THE SCOTTISH FOLD!!
THEIR WILL SHALL BE DONE!! |
Bad Bobby
The Dirty Rotten Scoundrels
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Posted - 2010.03.30 15:43:00 -
[6]
Originally by: Breaker77
Quote:
On the high end game play side of this is the role of strategic ship classes as valuable targets. Here we refer to them as supercapitals, the largest classes of ships in the game which cannot dock in stations. Currently they get a default payout of 40% of the old static value of the ship which is around 5 billion ISK for supercarriers and 20 billion for titans.
The idea is that these are cut to a fraction of their current payout values so they might only get 1-10% for example of the base build value of their ships. This is done with the intention of making strategic ship classes be more valuable targets and their death have much stronger meaning and value.
They are just making the titan BPC business harder and harder
Going from 40% to 1-10% insurance on a capitals will be punishing and will mean there will be less capital buying isk in circulation and it will discourage some capital pilots from being as bold with their chariots. We do need more people losing and replacing capitals. We need more capital warfare not less. However, I believe it's had more to do with the state of warfare (or the lack of it) and the state of the battlefield (lag etc) than it has to do with the basic affordability of the vessels themselves. So I'm not seeing this as a serious blow yet.
Originally by: Letrange
Originally by: Bad Bobby
Low-sec gets some love. Will it be enough to significantly encourage low-sec mining as opposed to 0.0/WH mining? Will it be a boost to piracy?
no
I agree. I think it's a safe bet it will not be enough of a boost... but I can still dream.
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Dariah Stardweller
Gallente
Gung-Ho
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Posted - 2010.03.30 15:46:00 -
[7]
Originally by: FunzzeR
Originally by: Letrange
no
Sadly this, some people are just too risk adverse no matter how many incentives are provided.
Well, atm there ARE no incentives to mine in low sec cuz you make more in hi sec.
If I was still an active miner I would only consider low sec mining if it could effectively give me at least twice the income of high sec mining. So that includes the pain in the arse of logistics and staying on the move to avoid getting ganked.
IMHO: low sec mining is never going to pay off cause it is too risky.
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Matalino
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Posted - 2010.03.30 15:55:00 -
[8]
Originally by: Bad Bobby
Increased affordability of T2 ships, particularly the ones that get the 60%.... Increased demand for these ships will be a likely result.
...which will result in increased cost becuase Tech 2 supply cannot scale with demand, which will result in a return to affordability similar to current levels. Slightly more affordable for ships with higher percentage payouts, worse affordablity for ships with lower percentage insurance payouts.
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Shar Tegral
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Posted - 2010.03.30 16:01:00 -
[9]
Originally by: Breaker77
They are just making the titan BPC business harder and harder
Originally by: Bad Bobby
Going from 40% to 1-10% insurance on a capitals will be punishing and will mean there will be less capital buying isk in circulation and it will discourage some capital pilots from being as bold with their chariots. We do need more people losing and replacing capitals. We need more capital warfare not less.
CCP has simply turn Titans into a massive isk sink. This is a good thing. Those people who can fund and finance a Titan are the most identifiable targets for sucking Isk out of the system. I do shudder though as it is kind of like a "rich caste" tax. Myself... the devblog was nice (and earlier that Akita's dire prediction  ) but still it is hard to say what is what without more detail. I'm just going to let it sink in for a few hours then read it again. Wash, rinse, repeat and hope see more details so that I can actually formulate a more worthwhile opinion to share. Correction: I do have one opinion. The insurance rebalancing and the periodic updating has a distinct stamp of actual Economic theory being applied. I've been critical of the Doctor likening him to a "figurehead". Perhaps I was in error, very much so.
Wealth, howsoever got, in Eve makes
Lords of morons and gentlemen of thieves;
Aptitude and intellect are needless here;
'Tis impudence and money that grants fame. |
Bad Bobby
The Dirty Rotten Scoundrels
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Posted - 2010.03.30 16:03:00 -
[10]
Originally by: Matalino
Originally by: Bad Bobby
Increased affordability of T2 ships, particularly the ones that get the 60%.... Increased demand for these ships will be a likely result.
...which will result in increased cost becuase Tech 2 supply cannot scale with demand, which will result in a return to affordability similar to current levels. Slightly more affordable for ships with higher percentage payouts, worse affordablity for ships with lower percentage insurance payouts.
Indeed. But I'm interested to see the effect of the specific insurance payouts on the demand for each particuar ship and the impact that has on the demand for similar T1/T3 vessels.
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FunzzeR
Death of Virtue
MeatSausage EXPRESS
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Posted - 2010.03.30 16:07:00 -
[11]
Originally by: Dariah Stardweller
Originally by: FunzzeR
Originally by: Letrange
no
Sadly this, some people are just too risk adverse no matter how many incentives are provided.
Well, atm there ARE no incentives to mine in low sec cuz you make more in hi sec.
If I was still an active miner I would only consider low sec mining if it could effectively give me at least twice the income of high sec mining. So that includes the pain in the arse of logistics and staying on the move to avoid getting ganked.
IMHO: low sec mining is never going to pay off cause it is too risky.
Solo mining would never payoff given the current payoff/risk ratio. Organizing into groups that and secure a system might tip the balance much like what is done in 0.0. 0.0 would have the same issues as low sec (even with the huge incentives of ABC ores) if not for the fact that there are organized entities providing some degree of safety.
Like I mentioned before, every ones appetite for risk varies. Some might try mining after the changes, but I predict that most will remain in high sec chasing relatively risk less sources of isk.
PRAISE THE SCOTTISH FOLD!!
THEIR WILL SHALL BE DONE!! |
Shar Tegral
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Posted - 2010.03.30 16:10:00 -
[12]
Originally by: FunzzeR
Some might try mining after the changes, but I predict that most will remain in high sec chasing relatively risk less sources of isk.
I just had a weird hope... CCP makes strip miners unable to operate in 1.0,0.9,0.8 systems. Protects newbs and increases the competition, and depletion, of risk free (or less) mining.
Wealth, howsoever got, in Eve makes
Lords of morons and gentlemen of thieves;
Aptitude and intellect are needless here;
'Tis impudence and money that grants fame. |
Doll
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Posted - 2010.03.30 16:18:00 -
[13]
So what will all of these changes mean for mineral prices? I can't really make up my mind.
T1 gone from mission loot => lower supply of everything except morphite.
Drone loot more "balanced" => higher supply of trit + pyerite (and to lesser extent mex+iso+nocx) and lower supply of morphite.
insurance changes => don't know.
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FunzzeR
Death of Virtue
MeatSausage EXPRESS
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Posted - 2010.03.30 16:28:00 -
[14]
Originally by: Doll
So what will all of these changes mean for mineral prices? I can't really make up my mind.
T1 gone from mission loot => lower supply of everything except morphite.
Drone loot more "balanced" => higher supply of trit + pyerite (and to lesser extent mex+iso+nocx) and lower supply of morphite.
insurance changes => don't know.
I have to think some more about it but my initial impression is that this is an attempt to reach the progression of high ends > mid ends > low ends (in terms of isk/m3) So perhaps high ends increase, mid ends increase, low ends stay the same or decrease?
PRAISE THE SCOTTISH FOLD!!
THEIR WILL SHALL BE DONE!! |
Bad Bobby
The Dirty Rotten Scoundrels
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Posted - 2010.03.30 16:38:00 -
[15]
Originally by: FunzzeR
Originally by: Doll
So what will all of these changes mean for mineral prices? I can't really make up my mind.
T1 gone from mission loot => lower supply of everything except morphite.
Drone loot more "balanced" => higher supply of trit + pyerite (and to lesser extent mex+iso+nocx) and lower supply of morphite.
insurance changes => don't know.
I have to think some more about it but my initial impression is that this is an attempt to reach the progression of high ends > mid ends > low ends (in terms of isk/m3) So perhaps high ends increase, mid ends increase, low ends stay the same or decrease?
How about...
Current levels of oversupply force the prices of all minerals into a downward spiral following insurance payout levels until a new equilibrium is reached whereby oversupply is stopped by lack of reward. Once the equilibrium is reached everything carries on much the same as normal but with a more natural supply and demand dynamic dictating mineral prices.
...I think it would be fun.
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Mahke
Aeon Of Strife
Discord.
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Posted - 2010.03.30 16:43:00 -
[16]
Edited by: Mahke on 30/03/2010 16:44:15
Edited by: Mahke on 30/03/2010 16:43:36
Originally by: Bad Bobby
Originally by: FunzzeR
Originally by: Doll
So what will all of these changes mean for mineral prices? I can't really make up my mind.
T1 gone from mission loot => lower supply of everything except morphite.
Drone loot more "balanced" => higher supply of trit + pyerite (and to lesser extent mex+iso+nocx) and lower supply of morphite.
insurance changes => don't know.
I have to think some more about it but my initial impression is that this is an attempt to reach the progression of high ends > mid ends > low ends (in terms of isk/m3) So perhaps high ends increase, mid ends increase, low ends stay the same or decrease?
How about...
Current levels of oversupply force the prices of all minerals into a downward spiral following insurance payout levels until a new equilibrium is reached whereby oversupply is stopped by lack of reward. Once the equilibrium is reached everything carries on much the same as normal but with a more natural supply and demand dynamic dictating mineral prices.
...I think it would be fun.
I disagree with this and have bought up several regions worth of a certain mineral.
Was right with enough things in dominion that even if it doesn't work out, whatever, didn't want that isk anyway
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Berenices Herculina
Gallente
Center for Advanced Studies
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Posted - 2010.03.30 16:47:00 -
[17]
About ****ing time CCP! Keep it up!
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Letrange
Minmatar
Chaosstorm Corporation
Apoapsis Multiversal Consortium
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Posted - 2010.03.30 17:00:00 -
[18]
The problem all the "is this a boost to low sec mining" people are ignoring like the elephant it is, is that it's safer to mine in w-space than low sec. So I ask you why the hell should a miner settle for lesser choice of ore in low sec when there's less risk in w-space? The MOST dangerous area in eve to mine is low sec. Unless the rewards are better than 0.0 or w-space there's no reason to mine there except stubbornness.
The only reason people try it is because they have not yet invested the scanning skills and basing requirements necessary for w-space existence. Period.
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Mme Pinkerton
United Engineering Services
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Posted - 2010.03.30 17:02:00 -
[19]
Originally by: Mahke
I disagree with this and have bought up several regions worth of a certain mineral.
what mineral was crashed by the drone regions again? 
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Letrange
Minmatar
Chaosstorm Corporation
Apoapsis Multiversal Consortium
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Posted - 2010.03.30 17:10:00 -
[20]
Originally by: Mme Pinkerton
Originally by: Mahke
I disagree with this and have bought up several regions worth of a certain mineral.
what mineral was crashed by the drone regions again?
Zydrine or Megacyte as I recall (probably Zydrine).
BTW as for the "certain mineral", I suggest you look at the published source distributions of minerals published by CCP, certain of them were 60% sourced from melted loot. I suspect that this is what Mahke is buying up. It doesn't take a rocket scientist. I suspect however that what we'll see is an increase of those specific minerals in the low sec ores (which also show up in w-space and 0.0 - surprise surprise).
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Mahke
Aeon Of Strife
Discord.
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Posted - 2010.03.30 17:13:00 -
[21]
Originally by: Letrange
Originally by: Mme Pinkerton
Originally by: Mahke
I disagree with this and have bought up several regions worth of a certain mineral.
what mineral was crashed by the drone regions again?
Zydrine or Megacyte as I recall (probably Zydrine).
BTW as for the "certain mineral", I suggest you look at the published source distributions of minerals published by CCP, certain of them were 60% sourced from melted loot. I suspect that this is what Mahke is buying up. It doesn't take a rocket scientist. I suspect however that what we'll see is an increase of those specific minerals in the low sec ores (which also show up in w-space and 0.0 - surprise surprise).
There are more than one I'm looking at. Might/probably will make a second play.
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Hrodgar Ortal
Minmatar
Ma'adim Logistics
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Posted - 2010.03.30 17:42:00 -
[22]
I'm uncertain how this will turn out in the end.
Seems mining profits will crash to start with.
Ships will be less affordable meaning a higher barrier to entry into pvp. (the difference between payout and cost of ship)
Then the changes to supercaps (he didn't mention caps so where do they fit??) will make them less used, which in turn drives demand down.
If caps are included in the supercap thing then the relative cost of sov warfare goes up which ofc might be fixed by the change to t2 insurance that might drive the price of t2 up but I doubt it will go up significantly.
All in all very mixed feelings about it.
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Olusegun Obasanjo
Minmatar
CENTRAL BANK OF NIGERIA
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Posted - 2010.03.30 17:49:00 -
[23]
Edited by: Olusegun Obasanjo on 30/03/2010 17:49:39
seems like im in the same boat as everyone else in this thread, need to let it sit for a bit and ferment before announcing that the sky is falling 
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Doll
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Posted - 2010.03.30 17:56:00 -
[24]
Originally by: Olusegun Obasanjo
Edited by: Olusegun Obasanjo on 30/03/2010 17:49:39
seems like im in the same boat as everyone else in this thread, need to let it sit for a bit and ferment before announcing that the sky is falling
Yeah, I'm waiting for Akita to announce the verdict
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Kharamete
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Posted - 2010.03.30 18:05:00 -
[25]
Originally by: Doll
Originally by: Olusegun Obasanjo
Edited by: Olusegun Obasanjo on 30/03/2010 17:49:39
seems like im in the same boat as everyone else in this thread, need to let it sit for a bit and ferment before announcing that the sky is falling
Yeah, I'm waiting for Akita to announce the verdict
S/he's probably passed out since s/he hasn't said anything - and the thread over in Eve info is rapidly going onto its seventh page :D
---
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Mashie Saldana
Red Federation
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Posted - 2010.03.30 18:08:00 -
[26]
Originally by: Bad Bobby
Going from 40% to 1-10% insurance on a capitals will be punishing and will mean there will be less capital buying isk in circulation and it will discourage some capital pilots from being as bold with their chariots. We do need more people losing and replacing capitals. We need more capital warfare not less. However, I believe it's had more to do with the state of warfare (or the lack of it) and the state of the battlefield (lag etc) than it has to do with the basic affordability of the vessels themselves. So I'm not seeing this as a serious blow yet.
The blog said supercapitals, not capitals. Of course with the general tweak of insurance carriers/dreads will cost a little more than just the fittings as it is now.
Godly scientist/builder/reverse engineer for sale |
Malcanis
Vanishing Point.
The Initiative.
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Posted - 2010.03.30 18:42:00 -
[27]
Originally by: Bad Bobby
Originally by: Breaker77
Quote:
On the high end game play side of this is the role of strategic ship classes as valuable targets. Here we refer to them as supercapitals, the largest classes of ships in the game which cannot dock in stations. Currently they get a default payout of 40% of the old static value of the ship which is around 5 billion ISK for supercarriers and 20 billion for titans.
The idea is that these are cut to a fraction of their current payout values so they might only get 1-10% for example of the base build value of their ships. This is done with the intention of making strategic ship classes be more valuable targets and their death have much stronger meaning and value.
They are just making the titan BPC business harder and harder
Going from 40% to 1-10% insurance on a capitals will be punishing and will mean there will be less capital buying isk in circulation and it will discourage some capital pilots from being as bold with their chariots. We do need more people losing and replacing capitals. We need more capital warfare not less.
How 'bout those ~400 capitals and supercaps fighting in Saranen right now...?
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cosmoray
Bella Vista Holdings Corp
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Posted - 2010.03.30 18:48:00 -
[28]
For low sec, I hope CCP are going to ADD Trit/Pye/Mex to existing low sec ores like hemorphite and hebdergite to increase their value. Otherwise putting lots of extra large trit/pye/mex roids in low sec will do jack *&$#.
Until I fully understand what is going on, my initial thought is to not own ANY T1 ships/modules or minerals on patch day.
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Companion Trollin
You are going too fast
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Posted - 2010.03.30 18:52:00 -
[29]
I love just about everything they're doing here, fan-****ing-tastic.
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.03.30 19:10:00 -
[30]
Edited by: Akita T on 30/03/2010 19:12:53
Originally by: Kharamete
Originally by: Doll
Originally by: Olusegun Obasanjo
seems like im in the same boat as everyone else in this thread, need to let it sit for a bit and ferment before announcing that the sky is falling
Yeah, I'm waiting for Akita to announce the verdict
S/he's probably passed out since s/he hasn't said anything - and the thread over in Eve info is rapidly going onto its seventh page :D
I was just busy... doing something completely different, but that's another story
Like I just said in the blog comments thread...
Overall, they covered a lot of the things I could have been angry about... so, this is far, FAR better than I had expected it to be, at least in theory.
Of course, in practice, the actual numbers (loot drop tables, what they replace meta-0 loot with, how ore and compound refine ratios will be tweaked and so on) will be extremely difficult to get quite right, and I expect a long, painful transitional period even if they WOULD get it almost perfectly right.
Oh, and I'm a bit skeptic about the percentage of build cost they'd be assigning as payout for each ship class, but that's yet again a completely different story. Only time will tell for sure (and a lot of cursing, most likely, from all camps, just at different times).
P.S. There are also some things left unsaid, for instance, if they'll be reverting the Veldspar respwan boosts made last summer, or even altering respawn rates of other ores (and where), but again, it's yet another (although related) story.
_
Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
_
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Bad Bobby
The Dirty Rotten Scoundrels
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Posted - 2010.03.30 19:48:00 -
[31]
Originally by: Letrange
The problem all the "is this a boost to low sec mining" people are ignoring like the elephant it is, is that it's safer to mine in w-space than low sec. So I ask you why the hell should a miner settle for lesser choice of ore in low sec when there's less risk in w-space? The MOST dangerous area in eve to mine is low sec. Unless the rewards are better than 0.0 or w-space there's no reason to mine there except stubbornness.
The only reason people try it is because they have not yet invested the scanning skills and basing requirements necessary for w-space existence. Period.
No, it wasn't ignored. It was exactly that that was being referred to:
Originally by: Bad Bobby
Will it be enough to significantly encourage low-sec mining as opposed to 0.0/WH mining?
And...
Originally by: Malcanis
How 'bout those ~400 capitals and supercaps fighting in Saranen right now...?
...was listening to my scout reporting on that while I've been on an op in the north...
Originally by: Scout
node down yes confirmed.
...as expected.
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Mahke
Aeon Of Strife
Discord.
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Posted - 2010.03.30 20:03:00 -
[32]
Edited by: Mahke on 30/03/2010 20:03:32
Since I've put as much isk in as I feel comfortable not caring about if I'm wrong and lose it all (which won't happen ofc, but, still), I'm most heavily in nocx with a smaller investment in isogen for kicks. The nocx I'm confident about, the iso is a coinflip based on ccp rebalancing and exactly how much of the iso from loot is excess from the fact that its overused in mineral compression. Was also thinking about zyd before the spike but sure as heck not touching it now.
Everything is of course up in the air as how ccp rebalanced things, and the basket as a whole is almost certainly going to drop hard.
On that note, the Jita market has gone insane and people are really overshooting values. Mex up 10%, highends up even farther (holy **** zyd), nocx up to 95+ when its still rocking at 86-7 through most other hubs even after I bought out the 80-84 stuff, etc.
there's still a month and a half till patch and the basket as a whole is going down. And remember: just because something may have been a good bet when the blog went live does NOT mean it is after its gone up as far as some of the minerals have.
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sinqlaison
Amarr
Capital Builders Inc.
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Posted - 2010.03.30 20:05:00 -
[33]
Very interesting... am long in minerals to the extent of 160 billion ISK ... hope Mahke is wrong saying "the basket as a whole is almost certainly going to drop hard"
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Mahke
Aeon Of Strife
Discord.
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Posted - 2010.03.30 20:13:00 -
[34]
Originally by: sinqlaison
Edited by: sinqlaison on 30/03/2010 20:09:10
Very interesting... am long in minerals to the extent of 160 billion ISK ... hope Mahke is wrong saying "the basket as a whole is almost certainly going to drop hard" But until now the total mineral basket has appreciated some 3-4% in a few hours making me a nice 5-7 billion ISK
People are stupid and overshot speculation prices + theres no good way to short, and theres still a month of insurance fraud left, I don't expect the stuff thats going to fall to actually do so until shortly before the patch.
I could be wrong on this though. It's all in CCP's hands anyway, and while I've been right more often than wrong don't have a perfect record at all.
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SurrenderMonkey
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Posted - 2010.03.30 20:42:00 -
[35]
Originally by: FunzzeR
Solo mining would never payoff given the current payoff/risk ratio. Organizing into groups that and secure a system might tip the balance much like what is done in 0.0. 0.0 would have the same issues as low sec (even with the huge incentives of ABC ores) if not for the fact that there are organized entities providing some degree of safety.
Organizing into a group does not change the fact that the ores which can be found in low sec which CANNOT also be found in high sec do not pay out as well as the the ores that are found in high sec AND low sec.
Unless you just can't find a suitable volume of scordite anywhere in high sec, or are intending on doing grav sites, there's no good reason to mine in low sec at present, solo, group, or otherwise.
---------------
Faction-Militia:Player-Alliance::Newbie-corp:Player-corp |
Licinius CrassusFilius
Amarr
Bene Gesserit ChapterHouse
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Posted - 2010.03.30 20:47:00 -
[36]
Originally by: Mahke
Edited by: Mahke on 30/03/2010 20:03:32
On that note, the Jita market has gone insane and people are really overshooting values. Mex up 10%, highends up even farther (holy **** zyd), nocx up to 95+ when its still rocking at 86-7 through most other hubs even after I bought out the 80-84 stuff, etc.
there's still a month and a half till patch and the basket as a whole is going down. And remember: just because something may have been a good bet when the blog went live does NOT mean it is after its gone up as far as some of the minerals have.
Just proves that buy on rumour, sell on fact holds true even 25,000 years into the future flying Internet spaceships
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Jeep Rubicon
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Posted - 2010.03.30 20:50:00 -
[37]
Is insurance really needed after you played for more then 1-2 years? EVE is already pretty vicious, why not just make insurance available to players under 2 years of play only? Although now that I think of it, there is probably another exploit to be had with no insurance option.
If CCP were to not allow strip miners in highsec then I think we would all just switch back to regular miners. I will occassionally mine in low/null sec but NEVER as my regular source of income. I go broke if I mine outside of highsec too much, too many people looking for honor in killing off my barges. I would take a loss to my playing income but it would not be anywhere near what I would lose from gankers.
Jeep
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FluorosulfonicAcid
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Posted - 2010.03.30 21:11:00 -
[38]
aww carp I was making 1 B isk a day off insurance with very very little work.
yesterday I made 3-4 M isk per ship on over 250 Rokhs each day, today I would lose 6-7 M isk and climbing per ship.
I guess I will have to do something new to make money, and it is about time, I didn't expect insurance to last forever so its not too bad.
BTW anyone want to buy my supply of trit, I got a couple Billion units left and nothing to use it for.
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Taua Roqa
Minmatar
Woe Hole
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Posted - 2010.03.30 21:11:00 -
[39]
it's nice to see things I've lobbied for ages for being implemented it's almost like ccp listen to us.
almost...
:o
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nether void
Caldari
Brotherhood of Suicidal Priests
R.A.G.E
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Posted - 2010.03.30 23:20:00 -
[40]
Yep, node stability dictating cap destruction, as expected. Insurance fraud temp on hold 'till this min bubble bursts. Will have to halt my ship building for actual sales until bubble pops.
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Zoe Midoru
Selectus Pravus Lupus
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Posted - 2010.03.30 23:59:00 -
[41]
Hm. Increased insurance payouts leads to more T2 ships bought, used, and lost, leads to more demand for T2 ship construction, leads to... bigger profits for T2 ship BPO holders.
'cause T2 ship BPOs weren't already big enough ISK printing machines, CCP?
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar
Vahrokh Consulting
|
Posted - 2010.03.31 00:33:00 -
[42]
A good start but still vastly insufficient measures at tackling and solving the minerals super-abundance.
I posted a bunch of suggestions at
Link
and even those harsh suggestions are probably not enough to purge the excess of production we got.
-
Auditing & consulting
When looking for investors, please read
http://tinyurl.com/n5ys4h + http://tinyurl.com/lrg4oz
|
genette devo
Gallente
Center for Advanced Studies
|
Posted - 2010.03.31 06:23:00 -
[43]
oh well, got a little use out of scrap metal reprocessing
|
Mara Rinn
|
Posted - 2010.03.31 06:26:00 -
[44]
*sigh* and Wednesday is my Internet-free night.
Why is it always Wednesday that the market gets funky?
[Aussie players: join channels ANZAC or AUSSIES] |
Charles Park
|
Posted - 2010.03.31 07:31:00 -
[45]
Look at the idiots speculate on morphite....
|
Companion Trollin
You are going too fast
|
Posted - 2010.03.31 08:14:00 -
[46]
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
A good start but still vastly insufficient measures at tackling and solving the minerals super-abundance.
I posted a bunch of suggestions at
Link
and even those harsh suggestions are probably not enough to purge the excess of production we got.
What are you smoking? Can I have some?
|
Lillian Blu
Gallente
Red Federation
|
Posted - 2010.03.31 10:29:00 -
[47]
Any idea how will all this affect T1 and T2 BPO prices?
|
Hexxx
Minmatar
|
Posted - 2010.03.31 10:59:00 -
[48]
Originally by: Lillian Blu
Any idea how will all this affect T1 and T2 BPO prices?
T2 prices are player determined, T1 prices are NPC determined. To answer you question, T1 BPO prices won't be affected by this particular change.
Projects Blog |
clixoras
|
Posted - 2010.03.31 11:14:00 -
[49]
With t0 drops almost reducing to zero, it probably will be profitable again to produce these items.
And LMAO at market speculation, for like 2 months everybody is going crazy about min prizes going down by nerfing insurance and the day it's sorta final people are stockpiling.
|
Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar
Vahrokh Consulting
|
Posted - 2010.03.31 11:18:00 -
[50]
Quote:
Hey, what can I say, the profit on minerals ought to be limited by how people value their time
You said a detail that happens on two levels.
One is the "how people value their time" default meaning, that is how far the prices have to crash before people does not bother any longer.
The other is subtler and yet it's very important.
An engineer in RMT origin countries earns USD 30-50 a month, he is the upper class.
A low wage, low class guy might earn well below USD 20 a month, breaking his back all day long breaking rocks, cleaning dung and similar.
Guess how long will that guy keep RMTing when even being in a sweatshop grinding roids and missions all day long he still earns a lot more than the other guy breaking rocks.
Hell will have to almost freeze before that guy stops RMTing.
Quote:
With t0 drops almost reducing to zero, it probably will be profitable again to produce these items.
Not really, T0 items are just condensed minerals. The entry barrier (and thus the possible added value) is about zero.
As long as the minerals entering the system are 3 times as much as the system needs, the minerals value will tend to support quotes, where support could drop to close to zero given enough time.
-
Auditing & consulting
When looking for investors, please read
http://tinyurl.com/n5ys4h + http://tinyurl.com/lrg4oz
|
Vlad Wormwing
StarHunt
Systematic-Chaos
|
Posted - 2010.03.31 12:00:00 -
[51]
Originally by: Bad Bobby
I have to think some more about it but my initial impression is that this is an attempt to reach the progression of high ends > mid ends > low ends (in terms of isk/m3) So perhaps high ends increase, mid ends increase, low ends stay the same or decrease?
How about...
Current levels of oversupply force the prices of all minerals into a downward spiral following insurance payout levels until a new equilibrium is reached whereby oversupply is stopped by lack of reward. Once the equilibrium is reached everything carries on much the same as normal but with a more natural supply and demand dynamic dictating mineral prices.
...I think it would be fun.
The NPC bounties are static.
And while it might be fun it does not mean meaningful. I can already afford 3 fleet fitted battleships per hour or grinding L5 anoms with few accounts thanx to the current insurance dotation on the hulls. With insurance floor knocked out from the hulls tho it might mean that I will be able to afford only 1 or 2 fleet BS per hour of ratting - thus making my loss more meaningful when it happens. Even if mineral prices drop by significant amount.
Overall the changes seem to be well tought thru. We will see how the details turn out ofc.
|
Claire Voyant
|
Posted - 2010.03.31 13:35:00 -
[52]
Edited by: Claire Voyant on 31/03/2010 13:44:07
File this under "Where this could all go wrong"
What we know:
1. Insurance fraud will be eliminated. People will still suicide gank if it is profitable enough, but no more free ships. Thus a huge demand for minerals has been removed.
2. Adjustments will be made to loot drops and mineral content of drone poo and some asteroids. A reduction in supply certainly, but most of the talk was about rebalancing the mineral supply.
3. The devs expect miners to choose to mine only the most profitable ores which they expect will fine tune the mineral supply and demand rebalancing.
Here is the problem, as I see it. If the devs have misjudged the impact of insurance fraud and macro-mining, mineral prices could fall much more than they expected, thus eliminating almost all economic incentive for real live players to mine. AND removing the economic incentive for player rebalancing though mining.
Macro-miners will still mine hisec ore, even more securely now that there are no more free battleships available to the suicide gankers. Macro-miners will still mine 0.0 ore deep in alliance held territories.
But low sec mining will be even worse than it is now. Even if mid-range minerals are rejiggered, the overall decline in mineral values will make it even less attractive.
I am not making any specific price predictions for individual minerals, and certainly not making any buy recommendations, but what I am saying is that I predict the system will remain broken. Mineral prices will drop dramatically, and where they end up will not be any more balanced than the current situation.
Edit: Of course with much lower mineral prices, suicide ganking while not free would still be pretty darn cheap.
|
Saikron
|
Posted - 2010.03.31 13:37:00 -
[53]
T1 ship prices will plummet. You people are nuts to be stockpiling minerals IMO. I don't trust CCP to control the drop rates for any minerals in any rational way. There is no way to know which specific minerals are going to crash and which will spike.
I'm betting some minerals will have lower prices than they have ever had before (trit).
--------
Don't moderate my sig, bro! |
Shar Tegral
|
Posted - 2010.03.31 13:52:00 -
[54]
Originally by: Claire Voyant
Macro-miners will still mine hisec ore, even more securely now that there are no more free battleships available to the suicide gankers. Macro-miners will still mine 0.0 ore deep in alliance held territories.
As we all know curing this, Macro-mining, would bring a massive correction to the entire economy. After all, the time value of a bot mining is much less compared to the time value of a person actually mining. Bot has an even lower value than the poor RMT sod that someone tossed into this thread. I guess this my skepticism at this point is akin to what I felt about "alchemy". The numbers, intentions, and perceptions that CCP is using to make these plans are not based upon reality but the distorted game reality that we have. In alchemy it was the duping, here it is macro miners (and collaterally any macro-something). As to suicide gank + insurance, CCP needs to grow a pair of balls and simply go through with earlier plans of "Concorded = 0 insurance". Add in "suicide selected" = 0 Insurance and "Corp Mate killed you" = 0 Insurance. I agree that having insurance payout as a more dynamic factor is inherently a good thing. However this overall blog seems more of someone thinking that they can pull off a "clever" abstraction to cure ills instead of attacking some of the real problems directly. So, not only should CCP grow a pair... they need to stop always thinking that they are so damn clever. It'll spare us all some of the more dramatic fiascos and subsequent apologies. I mean, granted we've supposedly got the most "honest with the customers" developers in the industry. That is only because they keep slipping on their own crap in huge ways and can't hide it - forever.
Wealth, howsoever got, in Eve makes
Lords of morons and gentlemen of thieves;
Aptitude and intellect are needless here;
'Tis impudence and money that grants fame. |
Markswoman
|
Posted - 2010.03.31 14:08:00 -
[55]
What about where this can all go right!
Insurance fraud and suicide ganking on a huge scale is wrong, reduce this and introduce additional demand for minerals (new things to build), and we have a winner.
The focus of the game has to be pvp, mining and manufacturing, and now adding planetary based manufacture/exploration/research.
Those areas need to work together in harmony, insurance fraud and suicide gankers is not the way, any change to accommodate this has to be welcomed in my view.
|
Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar
Vahrokh Consulting
|
Posted - 2010.03.31 14:12:00 -
[56]
Quote:
And LMAO at market speculation, for like 2 months everybody is going crazy about min prizes going down by nerfing insurance and the day it's sorta final people are stockpiling.
Because they are idiots and don't learn off what happens when you speculate and it goes bad.
It's a bad trader, the one who blindly goes after rumors. News trading is one of the though branches of marketing as is.
Trading is not betting, it's not gambling. It's calculated risk and savy money management (notice, not a general "good sense" management, there are courses about effective money management strategies to adapt to trading strategies).
Furthermore, hoarding zydrine "because drone regions will be nerfed", not only is not a safe bet at all.
An analysis with numbers we do not have is required, to see if just doing what's stated will be enough to actually bring in potential for the relevant market to stop spiralling down.
Else, it's just a coin toss. Those who guessed the right side of the coin will believe blind speculation pays and will do it again till they get burned and lose lots of their savings.
So what's left? There are things that as long as the full blog is put in practice, they are going to change, and unlike minerals these things can be given some confidence that they'll happen even if the minerals rebalance will result in an epic fail.
I quickly found out 3 candidates that don't rely in the zydrine / megacyte etc. speculation, just on the patch being applied:
1) Lowest confidence (say 60%) but highest reward: a number of related items are going to be bought off (and buy orders will be dumped to create spread). The first days they will skyrocket and those who stockpiled before the patch will be able to achieve substantial gains.
The opportunity is short lived though, because the usual trail of slow cows will adapt and start the usual flooding that will completely destroy the profits.
Since those items are here to stay and at higher volume than now, in the long term their price will keep dropping till they are worth less than today.
2) Better confidence (80%): a whole category of items will rise in demand and at first the offer won't be able to match them. Decent opportunity to exploit as long as you were prepared. The two good people who group convoed me some days ago might immediately understand what this category is.
This category will yield less brisk rise of income but will last a lot longer and will stabilize at a value "forever" (unless new patches increase them) above today's.
3) Best confidence (90%+): a small but high volume category of items will rise by several % (less than the above, but high turnover and available in all of the hubs). At first nobody will notice the fact that there is a category of items that by mere basic logic *cannot* be as widespread as today and will become scarcer.
After 1 maybe 2 weeks a global shortage will start a slow rise of value. That rise will slowly grow in profitably till a new equilibrium between demand and offer will be reached then it'll slow down and stabilize. Those with great wallets could make a vast gain with a rate probably near the best bonds.
-
Auditing & consulting
When looking for investors, please read
http://tinyurl.com/n5ys4h + http://tinyurl.com/lrg4oz
|
Jack Coutu
Gallente
Duty.
|
Posted - 2010.03.31 15:24:00 -
[57]
Originally by: Markswoman
What about where this can all go right!
Insurance fraud and suicide ganking on a huge scale is wrong, reduce this and introduce additional demand for minerals (new things to build), and we have a winner.
The focus of the game has to be pvp, mining and manufacturing, and now adding planetary based manufacture/exploration/research.
Those areas need to work together in harmony, insurance fraud and suicide gankers is not the way, any change to accommodate this has to be welcomed in my view.
Someone is really hurt over being suicide ganked. You do realize that most of the time, the cost of ganking someone without insurance will still be totally ignored compared to the vast benefits?
|
Claire Voyant
|
Posted - 2010.03.31 15:32:00 -
[58]
Some guy has posted Sisi drone loot values over in GD.
|
Jack Coutu
Gallente
Duty.
|
Posted - 2010.03.31 15:35:00 -
[59]
Hmm, megacyte and zydrine.
|
Hrodgar Ortal
Minmatar
Ma'adim Logistics
|
Posted - 2010.03.31 15:47:00 -
[60]
Originally by: Jack Coutu
Edited by: Jack Coutu on 31/03/2010 15:36:02
Hmm, megacyte and zydrine.
BUY BUY BUY lol.
Seems a bit premature ;)
|
Kharamete
|
Posted - 2010.03.31 15:54:00 -
[61]
Originally by: Linas IV
For all those who are interested in this, here is a comparison of
current TQ and Sisi refining-values for the Different Drone-alloys
Tri | Pyr | Mex | Iso | Nox | Zyd | Meg | Morph
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Condensed 88 | 44 | 11 | (TQ Values)
160 | 40 | 9 | (Sisi Values)
Crystal | 39 | 2 |
| 24 | 6 |
Precious | 7 | | 18 |
| 128 | 24 | 14 |
Gleaming 299 | | 5 |
638 | | 2 |
Sheen 124 | 44 | | 23 | 1 |
512 | 106 | | 8 | 2 |
Lucent | 174 | 2 | 11 | 5 |
| 192 | 48 | 13 | 2 |
Dark | 23 | 10 |
| 32 | 8 |
Motley | 28 | 13 |
| 40 | 9 |
Lustering | 88 | 32 | 35 | 2 |
| 192 | 48 | 13 | 2 |
Plush | 120 | | 20 | | 18 |
~4200 |~1000| | 64 | | 4 |
Glossy | 4 | | 6 |
| 194 | | 24 | | 1 |
Opulent | 2 |
| 2 |
Excuse if there are any minor Typos, but most of the above values should be correct.
From the GD thread. Let's bring out the tea leaves and the crystal balls...
---
|
Grozen
Caldari
Titan Core
|
Posted - 2010.03.31 16:01:00 -
[62]
I do not believe that minerals will skyrocket.Any kind of price raise will be killed swiftly by big mineral holders and we will return to where we are atm.
knowledge is power |
Capt Fossil
Gallente
|
Posted - 2010.03.31 16:02:00 -
[63]
Personally, I think the speculators are in for a rude awakening, and the Mineral traders who were dumb enough to keep up.
Just the the ONE guy who WAS self-destructing 250 BS's per day. Do you realize how much Megacyte, Nocxium, Isogen and Zydrine per day that is??? Nevermind the Freighters full of Trit and Pyerite. How many haulers aren't gonna be getting courier contracts? BPC sales??? Again, that's just one guy......
I am small time, 2 man op compared to him. Do all our own hauling, avg 30 BS per day,. I WAS making over 7M per BS for the last few months...now like 4M :(
But, I am still also prolly 25% of the currrent mineral demand in my region. Worst thing that's gonna happen to me is I am stuck with a bunch of high quality BS BPC's. Now getting stuck with 100's of millions of units of high end minerals......Suicide gankers are tiny compared to the amount of minerals that were being consumed by insurance fraud.
Too bad we don't have a commodities futures market....I would be shorting the heck out of high end minerals today.
|
cosmoray
Bella Vista Holdings Corp
|
Posted - 2010.03.31 17:02:00 -
[64]
Originally by: Kharamete
Originally by: Linas IV
For all those who are interested in this, here is a comparison of
current TQ and Sisi refining-values for the Different Drone-alloys
Tri | Pyr | Mex | Iso | Nox | Zyd | Meg | Morph
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Condensed 88 | 44 | 11 | (TQ Values)
160 | 40 | 9 | (Sisi Values)
Crystal | 39 | 2 |
| 24 | 6 |
Precious | 7 | | 18 |
| 128 | 24 | 14 |
Gleaming 299 | | 5 |
638 | | 2 |
Sheen 124 | 44 | | 23 | 1 |
512 | 106 | | 8 | 2 |
Lucent | 174 | 2 | 11 | 5 |
| 192 | 48 | 13 | 2 |
Dark | 23 | 10 |
| 32 | 8 |
Motley | 28 | 13 |
| 40 | 9 |
Lustering | 88 | 32 | 35 | 2 |
| 192 | 48 | 13 | 2 |
Plush | 120 | | 20 | | 18 |
~4200 |~1000| | 64 | | 4 |
Glossy | 4 | | 6 |
| 194 | | 24 | | 1 |
Opulent | 2 |
| 2 |
Excuse if there are any minor Typos, but most of the above values should be correct.
From the GD thread. Let's bring out the tea leaves and the crystal balls...
That chart is so spectacularly wrong its not even funny.
For a start some of the TQ numbers are wrong.
|
Capt Fossil
Gallente
|
Posted - 2010.03.31 17:09:00 -
[65]
Edited by: Capt Fossil on 31/03/2010 17:09:26
When I went to bed last night, Zydrine was over 1500 on buy orders in Jita. Just checked, 1132 isk.
Somebody is holding ALOT of overpriced Zydrine.
|
Chssmius
Deep Core Mining Inc.
|
Posted - 2010.03.31 17:10:00 -
[66]
I think speculators are under estimating by just how much demand is currently inflated because of the IER. A demand reduction of a mere 10%* and the supply increase at the bottleneck low-end minerals (as suggested in the blog) could very well put the price of all minerals in free fall until the basket quasi-stabilizes around the new insurance values. At least, until the next insurance re-evaluation or the next major mineral change.
*I think this may be conservative as approximately 350 tier 3 battleships a day being self-destructed is equal to ~10% of the Jita Trit volume per day.
We are almost certain to experience a situation not entirely unlike that of farmers and corn in the 1930s leading to the passing of the AAA in the U.S.A. as a part of the New Deal in 1936 and again in 1938. That is, falling demand for minerals is met by rising supply from mineral producers, meaning deflation and surplus. A trend that will continue with every insurance adjustment until enough producers leave the market and pickup other professions that flood the market with isk, raising demand and inflating prices until the next time the equation changes.
Take The EvE Personality Test today! |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar
Vahrokh Consulting
|
Posted - 2010.03.31 17:11:00 -
[67]
Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha on 31/03/2010 17:14:09
Quote:
Just the the ONE guy who WAS self-destructing 250 BS's per day. Do you realize how much Megacyte, Nocxium, Isogen and Zydrine per day that is??? Nevermind the Freighters full of Trit and Pyerite. How many haulers aren't gonna be getting courier contracts? BPC sales??? Again, that's just one guy......
Cosmoray just got promoted to Urban Legend status.
Quote:
Too bad we don't have a commodities futures market....I would be shorting the heck out of high end minerals today
There are cases where you are forbidden short selling (or increase short selling positions) in case of declining markets. I guess CCP would just impose such restriction exactly now, in order to prevent leveraged crashing.
This is expecially true for financial stocks.
Quote:
When I went to bed last night, Zydrine was over 1500 on buy orders in Jita. Just checked, 1132 isk.
Somebody is holding ALOT of overpriced Zydrine
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
Because they are idiots and don't learn off what happens when you speculate and it goes bad.
It's a bad trader, the one who blindly goes after rumors. News trading is one of the though branches of marketing as is
Just quoting myself for the 100th time...
-
Auditing & consulting
When looking for investors, please read
http://tinyurl.com/n5ys4h + http://tinyurl.com/lrg4oz
|
cosmoray
Bella Vista Holdings Corp
|
Posted - 2010.03.31 17:19:00 -
[68]
I don't know why people are wildly speculating, the swings yesterday were knee-jerk silly.
According to some rough calculations I made from the drone regions (could change and be +/-).
Changes to mineral supply from drone region:
Trit = +18%
Pyerite = +54%
Mexallon = +32%
Isogen = +70%
Noxcium = - 22%
Zydrine = - 40%
Megacyte = - 66%
Although drone regions will reduce the high ends, the sov bonus to mining may counteract that, along with reduced demand for insurance fraud.
Theoretically mega/zyd should go up, but have to see whole package changes.
|
Capt Fossil
Gallente
|
Posted - 2010.03.31 17:33:00 -
[69]
Well not only are speculators (and CCP) underestimating the impact of Insurance fraud, but CCP is ignoring the impact of macro-miners. Out of the billions of units of low end minerals I have bought in the past few months, at least 50% of them come from the same few 23/7 folks. Fact.
We will never have any sort of real market for miners until they are gone.
|
Chssmius
Deep Core Mining Inc.
|
Posted - 2010.03.31 17:42:00 -
[70]
Originally by: cosmoray
I don't know why people are wildly speculating, the swings yesterday were knee-jerk silly.
According to some rough calculations I made from the drone regions (could change and be +/-).
Changes to mineral supply from drone region:
Trit = +18%
Pyerite = +54%
Mexallon = +32%
Isogen = +70%
Noxcium = - 22%
Zydrine = - 40%
Megacyte = - 66%
Although drone regions will reduce the high ends, the sov bonus to mining may counteract that, along with reduced demand for insurance fraud.
Theoretically mega/zyd should go up, but have to see whole package changes.
What we really need to do is adjust the percentage of each mineral coming from the looting reduction. The assumption is that the "large" meta 0 modules will virtually disappear and be supplanted(mostly) with scrap metal. I feel the loot data + the drone compounds would be most telling for nox and everything below(based on historic data) and zyd, mega, and morph continue to be the primary exports from 0.0. I don't anticipate significant transformation of 0.0 mining to occur from whatever is being done to null-sec ores and belts. And whatever change there is I only see as serving to further depress the low-end minerals.
Take The EvE Personality Test today! |
Gabriel Rosencrantz
|
Posted - 2010.03.31 18:06:00 -
[71]
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
Cosmoray just got promoted to Urban Legend status.
I believe Fossil is referring to Fluoro, not Cosmo.
Originally by: FluorosulfonicAcid
yesterday I made 3-4 M isk per ship on over 250 Rokhs each day...
To address Fossil's specific comment: Red Frog Freight deals with many producers engaged in IER activities. They make up a much smaller percentage of the total number of courier contracts than you might imagine. There may be some short-term change to the number of courier contracts issued, but those sorts of runs will be replaced by others. Minerals form the basis of all production; there will still be plenty of mins/ore flowing around the universe. My hope is that with the focus slowly shifting back to miners, we'll see more Miner/Traders looking to move their own mins to market by way of courier contracts.
Personally, I think there will be an uptick in the number of T2 and T3 production lines and there will be a commensurate rise in the number of courier contracts (mass produced T3 items are just too valuable to move in anything but a freighter). I think that planetary resource harvest will also increase the need for courier contracts and dedicated logistics networks. If, as has been rumored, there is a shift to player production of NPC POS fuel items, I predict a Golden Age for haulers (or at least those are the visions that dance in my head when I fall asleep each night).
Finally, they've told us what they'll be pulling out of the mineral stream, but we haven't yet heard about new sinks. So it still seems premature to speculate on the exact outcomes for the market. It seems clear they aren't looking to kill the mining profession, so I doubt they will do anything that will absolutely kill the price of minerals. Then again, who knows? |
Jason Rebourne
|
Posted - 2010.03.31 18:47:00 -
[72]
Its still all about buying low and selling high.
The only question is who will now be the alpha buyer? For the past little while it has been the IER builders. So who is going to replace them going forward?
They had a NPC supported flow of ISK that was not only steady but predetermined, that makes for a strong ability to know how to buy and at what margins. Without that the market is goign to be much less stable, the only thing effecting prices was their profit margin, and since enough of the builders were doing it they had a healthy competition for minerals. Now that is all gone.
Not saying it is good or bad, just that there will have to be a new group to replace them. And if macro miners arent squelched then this new change isnt going to work. Speculators can make up a small portion of the buying force, but even they know their limitations, what good is it to speculate perpetually and never reap the benefits (if they happen at all). So greed is a major deciding factor in an unstable market. it even outwieghs fear. because if a guy has massive holdings he will become definat if he cant make a profit and will have the attitude of "they'll fix it eventually". That is why a virtual economy can never mimic a real one. But that being said those guys who do that help in their own way, because if the markets crash and they freak out and dump everything it just makes it that much worse.
So while greed is a major factor demand is the biggest. because if a guy has a concrete profit outlet he wants to be able to take advantage of it. if he loses alittle here and there in profits he can live with it. So while he is gredy a known price point can curb that greed a little. but now there is no concrete area. Again might be good or bad dont know yet.
But I do know that somewhere some group will have to step up and be the guys that buy stuff and spend ISK to support the economy. Which might take awhile to find a steady reliable income for them.
Then you have to keep taking into account the macrominers. they dont care about competiton. To them all their ore and minerals are free. They sell for the highest price where they are regardless of how high or low it is. Something human players wont do. Not that macro miners arent human, they just dont think human. So these unthinking unsleeping entities continue to sell for or maybe post sell orders onto a market that may or may not be able to keep up with them. Therein lies the problem. Prices can drop to nothing but an unstable market makes it difficult for alpha manufactorers to set aprice for their good. Why buy minerals to support the economy when by the time you makes something it is worth less than the minerals it cost to make it, and you still cant sell it, even at a loss.
Again, that is why the IER thing worked, because it was NPC supported. I know no one wants and NPC based system, but a little support doesnt kill it.
We saw that yesterday. No real changes were made, but prices on minerals went up enough to make IER non proftable for a short time.
So ultimately it comes down to this. Who will the next alpha buyer group be? If no one steps up and real players leave and macroplayers stay how much more will that hurt the stability? If it is obvious it isnt working how long before it gets "fixed" again? And how will that effect future values of things going forward and stuff already in the game?
|
Dariah Stardweller
Gallente
Gung-Ho
|
Posted - 2010.03.31 19:55:00 -
[73]
Originally by: FunzzeR
Solo mining would never payoff given the current payoff/risk ratio.
No mate, you don't get it, with the current payoff/risk ratio no low sec mining operation would pay off really, since the hi sec ores are worth more than the low sec ores.
|
nether void
Caldari
Brotherhood of Suicidal Priests
R.A.G.E
|
Posted - 2010.03.31 20:24:00 -
[74]
Originally by: Capt Fossil
Edited by: Capt Fossil on 31/03/2010 17:09:26
When I went to bed last night, Zydrine was over 1500 on buy orders in Jita. Just checked, 1132 isk.
Somebody is holding ALOT of overpriced Zydrine.
Thank GOD! Zyd prices yesterday were really screwing up my 'for sales' production. Good to know for now it's back to pretty much norm.
Not saying it won't drop through the floor when the ins changes hit, which it will, but would like to get another month or two of production in before closing shop while the market goes ****ing crazy.
|
clixoras
|
Posted - 2010.03.31 22:25:00 -
[75]
Edited by: clixoras on 31/03/2010 22:25:38
Originally by: Capt Fossil
Well not only are speculators (and CCP) underestimating the impact of Insurance fraud, but CCP is ignoring the impact of macro-miners. Out of the billions of units of low end minerals I have bought in the past few months, at least 50% of them come from the same few 23/7 folks. Fact.
We will never have any sort of real market for miners until they are gone.
Finally, someone who understands. If i recall correctly, CCP didnt even MENTION macro-miners in the blog. This balancing mechanism won't work if they also don't take Macro-miners out of the equation.
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Mahke
Aeon Of Strife
Discord.
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Posted - 2010.03.31 22:34:00 -
[76]
Bah, I have a couple billion to unload in my smaller buys assuming those drone values are correct and will hold.
turns out nocx and mega were the right choices, oh well.
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Mahke
Aeon Of Strife
Discord.
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Posted - 2010.03.31 23:41:00 -
[77]
Edited by: Mahke on 31/03/2010 23:45:53
Originally by: cosmoray
I don't know why people are wildly speculating, the swings yesterday were knee-jerk silly.
According to some rough calculations I made from the drone regions (could change and be +/-).
Changes to mineral supply from drone region:
Trit = +18%
Pyerite = +54%
Mexallon = +32%
Isogen = +70%
Noxcium = - 22%
Zydrine = - 40%
Megacyte = - 66%
Although drone regions will reduce the high ends, the sov bonus to mining may counteract that, along with reduced demand for insurance fraud.
Theoretically mega/zyd should go up, but have to see whole package changes.
Assuming Cosmo's numbers are correct, that all minerals from reprocessing come from loot (which is obviously false because people use compression to move them around, especially for trit/pye/mex, but, whatever, lets run with it for now), and that the 2008 table for mineral source still holds true (see last caveat about this being clearly false but better than nothing):
total supply change, roughly:
[almost certainly overstated using this method]
trit: -41%
pyrite: -54.6%
mex: -55.5%
[/almost certainly overstated using this method]
iso: -40%
nocx: -43.2%
zyd: -34%
mega: -49%
morphite: lol
what is most noticeable in this data is the mega change (which,as its less likely to be skewed by compression than mex/trit which capital builders need moved in massive quatities, and pyrite which is the current soft bottleneck for battleship insurance fraud, puts it definitively at the top of the pack). Please note that I am not endorsing or suggesting against mega at current, post-increase prices here.
the other thing that is noticeable is that assuming these results are at all accurate, zydrine supply is going to drop significantly less than everything else (also its a relatively major component of rokhs).
edit: this suggests mega up sharply, mex possibly up due to high % and trit clearing heading for a heavy fall (mex and trit seesaw thanks to capital production, large trit drop could support mex prices), nocx probably up as the second best after mega, and everything else falling ( I know, I know, pyrite has good numbers but insurance fraud consumption is just so critical to its demand). Of course, considering the three shaky assumptions the numbers are built on I'd say the chance that these numbers are accurate is significantly less than half.
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Taerna Kallintte
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Posted - 2010.04.01 01:19:00 -
[78]
Originally by: Mahke
Edited by: Mahke on 31/03/2010 23:57:23
total supply change, roughly:
[almost certainly overstated using this method]
trit: -41%
pyrite: -54.6%
mex: -55.5%
[/almost certainly overstated using this method]
iso: -40%
nocx: -43.2%
zyd: -34%
mega: -49%
morphite: lol
This is fairly close to my rough estimations (I didn't assume ALL Loot would disappear.)
So, if the IED currently takes 40% of the current minerals, then prices would remain fairly stable, and miners would have a larger control of the market.
A lot of IF's in that statement.
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Celia Therone
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Posted - 2010.04.01 01:49:00 -
[79]
Originally by: Taerna Kallintte
This is fairly close to my rough estimations (I didn't assume ALL Loot would disappear.)
So, if the IED currently takes 40% of the current minerals, then prices would remain fairly stable, and miners would have a larger control of the market.
A lot of IF's in that statement.
Looking at this another way, wouldn't one expect that high sec mining income without insurance floor subsidy would fall to approximately that of high sec ice mining (with a small premium as mining isn't quite so afk as ice harvesting)? Which could imply a drop of 30-45% for high sec mining? Caveat, guestimating numbers.
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Chssmius
Deep Core Mining Inc.
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Posted - 2010.04.01 03:53:00 -
[80]
Edited by: Chssmius on 01/04/2010 03:54:05
Originally by: Celia Therone
Originally by: Taerna Kallintte
This is fairly close to my rough estimations (I didn't assume ALL Loot would disappear.)
So, if the IED currently takes 40% of the current minerals, then prices would remain fairly stable, and miners would have a larger control of the market.
A lot of IF's in that statement.
Looking at this another way, wouldn't one expect that high sec mining income without insurance floor subsidy would fall to approximately that of high sec ice mining (with a small premium as mining isn't quite so afk as ice harvesting)? Which could imply a drop of 30-45% for high sec mining? Caveat, guestimating numbers.
That is in the neighborhood of what I am guessing the low-ends will drop by, but what do I know.
All of this is very speculative.
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Hrodgar Ortal
Minmatar
Ma'adim Logistics
|
Posted - 2010.04.01 05:04:00 -
[81]
Lots of speculation.
It all boils down to:
1. How much minerals are used in IER
2. How much minerals are produced by the loot CCP is reducing/removing.
If 1>2 => prices fall
If 2<1 => prices rise
If 1=2 => prices are stable
(the basket price that is)
I doubt the changes are anywhere near what has been posted here. Everything is just guesstimation at this point really.
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Sturmwolke
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Posted - 2010.04.01 05:22:00 -
[82]
One thing that bothers me is why Chronotis's blog seems to indicate or imply a mineral shortage that would drive up the price - which could either across the board or towards the high-end .... and players are talking about massive oversupply.
Think about it, for you'll need data on :
a) Total consumed in ships/modules built.
b) Total destroyed in ships/modules.
b) Refined total put into the system from NPC loot.
c) Refined total put into the system from drone loot.
d) Refined total put into the system from ores.
Yes, barring hoarding of mineral stockpile, asset stockpile, manufacturing stock, logistical delays and those destroyed in transit, the above should tell you (more or less) about the moving volume in consumption/supply situation per mineral in a particular timeframe.
Drone loot - the SISI composition changes is meaningless without volume data. You could use the Jita volume to get some figures, but the global ultimate will only come from the refinery records.
NPC loot - blog did not mention any composition changes, so quantifying the reduced frequency in which it drops is almost next to impossible. Nevertheless, you can still get Jita volume data for the top 10 or so T1 M0 favourites for melting.
So back to the topic of mineral oversupply, the final missing piece is the ore refining. Unless the fellows at CCP are total incompetent, I'd at least expect to see a global breakdown total for each ore refined and which region. That'll tell me a few things :
- which ores are being overmined
- its distribution by place and sec status
- which mineral is being oversupplied
Assuming he has all these data at his fingertips, and then some more to account for other misc factors not mentioned above ... WHY is this guy optimistic about not crippling the miner as a profession, especially in view of the insurance changes?
Conclude away! 
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Venkul Mul
Gallente
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Posted - 2010.04.01 06:13:00 -
[83]
Originally by: Letrange
Originally by: Bad Bobby
Low-sec gets some love. Will it be enough to significantly encourage low-sec mining as opposed to 0.0/WH mining? Will it be a boost to piracy?
no
As usual, players will go directly to 0.0 to mine after leaving high sec (if will get any profit after the change).
With the nice industrial upgrades they will have plenty of the boosted low sec minerals to mine and less risk.
I don't see why someone would chose the "play stupid" option where you get less isk and you have more risk.
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Umega
Republic Military School
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Posted - 2010.04.01 06:17:00 -
[84]
Originally by: Sturmwolke
One thing that bothers me is why Chronotis's blog seems to indicate or imply a mineral shortage that would drive up the price - which could either across the board or towards the high-end .... and players are talking about massive oversupply.
Think about it, for you'll need data on :
a) Total consumed in ships/modules built.
b) Total destroyed in ships/modules.
b) Refined total put into the system from NPC loot.
c) Refined total put into the system from drone loot.
d) Refined total put into the system from ores.
Yes, barring hoarding of mineral stockpile, asset stockpile, manufacturing stock, logistical delays and those destroyed in transit, the above should tell you (more or less) about the moving volume in consumption/supply situation per mineral in a particular timeframe.
Drone loot - the SISI composition changes is meaningless without volume data. You could use the Jita volume to get some figures, but the global ultimate will only come from the refinery records.
NPC loot - blog did not mention any composition changes, so quantifying the reduced frequency in which it drops is almost next to impossible. Nevertheless, you can still get Jita volume data for the top 10 or so T1 M0 favourites for melting.
So back to the topic of mineral oversupply, the final missing piece is the ore refining. Unless the fellows at CCP are total incompetent, I'd at least expect to see a global breakdown total for each ore refined and which region. That'll tell me a few things :
- which ores are being overmined
- its distribution by place and sec status
- which mineral is being oversupplied
Assuming he has all these data at his fingertips, and then some more to account for other misc factors not mentioned above ... WHY is this guy optimistic about not crippling the miner as a profession, especially in view of the insurance changes?
Conclude away!
Holy purple triangles fling from monkies.. it is about time someone grew up in reality and realized that CCP is the ONE with all the numbers and information, and not some ego hungry 'genius' EVE player that believes they have more knowledge and information than the EVE devs.
I too took that as the biggest thing said in the blog, how he implyed of a mineral shortage after a period of time that would cause a mineral value increase.
It'll be funny when so many T1 mods are melted and destroyed, then when loot tables drop.. the supply won't meet the demand of the T2 mod recipes for T1 modules. Both T2 and T1 mods jump in value.. minerals are then needed to supplement this 'new' increased production market for T1 modules, but where do the minerals come from if not the T1 mods anymore.. ore, miners.
Pyroxeres.. might be good to grab while dirt cheap and low man on totem pole.
----------------------------------------
-Treat the EVE Market like you're a pimp and it is your 'employee'.. freely fondle it as you wish and make it pay you for it- |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar
Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2010.04.01 07:46:00 -
[85]
Quote:
how he implyed of a mineral shortage after a period of time that would cause a mineral value increase
Self delusional statements...
ATM the "miners" are already working at low capacity and reduced crew. My hulks are parked since months (I mine much better in missions).
The day a vague smell of shortage comes up, the big mining ops of the past resume and then minerals will come 5 times as much till prices crash again.
It's why I suggested a nerf in mining ships yield, the potential to drive minerals in game is massively insane.
The number of minerals consumers is just too small compared to the gargantuan global mining capability.
Plus it scales like production, in case of need you can just slam more alts in the task till you fulfill ANY amount of request.
Quote:
Pyroxeres.. might be good to grab while dirt cheap and low man on totem pole
Pyroxeres yields 844 units of bad priced (and bound to fare bad) tritanium vs 11 units of Nocxium.
It'll take some very heavy overpricing of Nocx before it outweighs the "cabbage" factor.
-
Auditing & consulting
When looking for investors, please read
http://tinyurl.com/n5ys4h + http://tinyurl.com/lrg4oz
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Hrodgar Ortal
Minmatar
Ma'adim Logistics
|
Posted - 2010.04.01 08:31:00 -
[86]
Originally by: Umega
Holy purple triangles fling from monkies.. it is about time someone grew up in reality and realized that CCP is the ONE with all the numbers and information, and not some ego hungry 'genius' EVE player that believes they have more knowledge and information than the EVE devs.
I too took that as the biggest thing said in the blog, how he implyed of a mineral shortage after a period of time that would cause a mineral value increase.
It'll be funny when so many T1 mods are melted and destroyed, then when loot tables drop.. the supply won't meet the demand of the T2 mod recipes for T1 modules. Both T2 and T1 mods jump in value.. minerals are then needed to supplement this 'new' increased production market for T1 modules, but where do the minerals come from if not the T1 mods anymore.. ore, miners.
Pyroxeres.. might be good to grab while dirt cheap and low man on totem pole.
Lots of people have said that it is only CCP that actually have the numbers.
What the main difference in opinion is about if he states anything in the blog about any kind shortage or surplus.
I haven't been able to see any implications in his blog about this.
Basically people are reading way to much into his blog compared to what he has stated.
1. T1m0 loot reduction => less minerals => upwards price pressure
2. Mineral distribution changes => downwards pressure in general on the minerals they are boosting in 0.0 (mostly trit and pye I expect)
3. Insurance made dynamic => downward spiral on minerals (this effect is uncertain, it depends on IF the m0 loot reduction are larger than the usage of minerals by "insurance fraud")
4. Supercap insurance changes => supercaps being used less => reduction in supercap losses => reduction in demand for minerals => downwards pressure
Those are the effects (disregarding t2 as it really doesn't effect the mineral market that much) I've been able to identify.
Basically three downwards pressures on the market and one upwards.
The by far biggest and hardest to know anything about is 3.
It can go either way. My personal bet is that it will go down. So I would try to go "short" on minerals positions, or basically use IER to liquidate mineral assets before the change hits.
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Xanthar Rex
Noir.
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Posted - 2010.04.01 10:36:00 -
[87]
Originally by: Hrodgar Ortal
If 1>2 => prices fall
If 2<1 => prices rise
 
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Jagga Spikes
Minmatar
Spikes Chop Shop
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Posted - 2010.04.01 10:58:00 -
[88]
Originally by: Xanthar Rex
Originally by: Hrodgar Ortal
...
It all boils down to:
1. How much minerals are used in IER
2. How much minerals are produced by the loot CCP is reducing/removing.
If 1>2 => prices fall
If 2<1 => prices rise
tho, tbh, it got me at first, as well.
________________________________
: Forum Bore 'Em : Foamy The Squirrel |
Hrodgar Ortal
Minmatar
Ma'adim Logistics
|
Posted - 2010.04.01 11:18:00 -
[89]
Originally by: Xanthar Rex
Originally by: Hrodgar Ortal
If 1>2 => prices fall
If 2<1 => prices rise
Yes. Point 1 and point 2 not the numbers themselves. Changed it to be more clear.
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Xanthar Rex
Noir.
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Posted - 2010.04.01 11:37:00 -
[90]
Edited by: Xanthar Rex on 01/04/2010 11:38:13
Edited by: Xanthar Rex on 01/04/2010 11:37:34
Originally by: Hrodgar Ortal
Edited by: Hrodgar Ortal on 01/04/2010 11:17:24
If a>b => prices fall
If b<a => prices rise
edit: changed numbers to letters since it seems it was unclear.
(a>b) = (b<a)
In words, both criteria stated are the same, yet has a different outcome?
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar
Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2010.04.01 12:10:00 -
[91]
Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha on 01/04/2010 12:10:40
Quote:
Those are the effects (disregarding t2 as it really doesn't effect the mineral market that much) I've been able to identify.
Basically three downwards pressures on the market and one upwards.
You identified the obvious speculation targets.
Now, since it's speculation it's bad. It's guesswork, it's not strategy.
Now, since everyone and their dog could figure it out, it's bad. It's a cows run, not an opportunity.
If you stopped for a longer time and noticed the mechanically determined consequences that WILL happen instead (even if the patch failed horribly, the "wrong" minerals crashed and so on) then you'd:
- still be speculating but on a narrower risk, where in the worst condition you lose little to nothing, but you can earn and decently well.
- start planning what to do, because you should start "acting" soon enough to have some weeks ahead of you.
- avoid the cows run to slaugther and be in the smaller number of those "doing different" and thus grabbing more pro capita.
On an unrelated matter, I noticed "someone" got it and is already discussing about those "other" and more solid opportunities right on this forum.
-
Auditing & consulting
When looking for investors, please read
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Taram Caldar
Royal Black Watch Highlanders
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Posted - 2010.04.01 12:37:00 -
[92]
Originally by: FunzzeR
Solo mining would never payoff given the current payoff/risk ratio. Organizing into groups that and secure a system might tip the balance much like what is done in 0.0.
You can stop right here and look and see what you wrote.
If you have the firepower to secure a lowsec system you have the firepower to secure a 0.0 system for mining.
Let's think about that for a moment.... if I am a mining outfit... and I've got the firepower to secure a lowsec OR a 0.0 system to mine in.... where would I mine?
Bottom line: There is no way they will ever make lowsec tempting enough to induce any real mining there. Anything you can mine in lowsec you can mine more of, faster in 0.0. The logistics aren't that much harder (in many cases not hard at all) than mining in lowsec the profit potential is far higher and the risk is actually lower.
Market Alerts Mailing List
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Taram Caldar
Royal Black Watch Highlanders
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Posted - 2010.04.01 13:31:00 -
[93]
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
On an unrelated matter, I noticed "someone" got it and is already discussing about those "other" and more solid opportunities right on this forum.
I saw that too. Going to be very interesting when that change hits.
Market Alerts Mailing List
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SpiderWebMayhem
YSS Industries
Shadow of xXDEATHXx
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Posted - 2010.04.01 14:27:00 -
[94]
Originally by: Hrodgar Ortal
4. Supercap insurance changes => supercaps being used less => reduction in supercap losses => reduction in demand for minerals => downwards pressure
No one is going to stop using supercaps, or even use them less, because of the insurance change. It will just hurt a little more when they are lost.
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SencneS
Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks
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Posted - 2010.04.01 14:42:00 -
[95]
Edited by: SencneS on 01/04/2010 14:45:08
I never speculate number wise by objective wise. What is CCP's objective. In the past when one mineral became too pricey (Trit) They stealth buffed Veld in highsec. What some people seem to forget is somethings like what CCP "like" to see, that is their objective, regardless of what changes take place if it doesn't meet their objective more changes will happen until they get there.
Their arbitrarily assigned numbers are
Trit 2
Pyer 8
Mex 32
Iso 128
Nox 512
Zyd 2,048
Megac 8,192
Trit - Check
Pyer - Check
Mex - Check
Iso - Needs a little buff (as in price hike)
Noc - Needs a MAJOR buff
Zyd - Needs a little buff
Megac - Needs a MAJOR buff
It's clear high-sec ors are OK apart from Isogen. From what I understand by what they have said they want T1 to be cheap and disposable. If that is truly the case then Iso, Noc, Zyd, and Megac do not need adjustments but Trit, Pyer, Mex are all doomed for cheaper price. However this does effect T2 mod prices, some require more Minerals then their T1 counterpart. Something like a Major increase in Pyerite supply would effect some T2 mod prices (popular T2 at that).
So what are my predictions...
Compounds have two stages that effect "reward" 1) The minerals that make then, 2) The amount of compounds dropped.
Read it again:-
Originally by: The Dev Blog
The fundamental focus of our changes here was to alter both the quantities dropped of each compound from the entities but also change the quantities of minerals they reprocess to so they more precisely fit with the ratio of materials required by manufacturing and therefore the market demand alongside a general decrease in volume of the loot so will be easier to haul the compounds to station for example.
My predictions... They are changing the Nocxium and Megacyte reprocess numbers, increase by a lot the amount of compounds which focus on Trit and Pyerite... Remember they just don't need to change reprocessing amount, they said right in the first part, "Focus was to alter quantities of each compound" as well as reprocess values.
BUT BUT YOU JUST SAID THOSE DON'T NEED CHANGING!!
They don't, although Trit is a little overpriced, but nothing that really effects much. There is NO NEED to change a Compound that drops reprocesses to Trit and Pyerte, they can just change the amount the drones drop.
Their objective I'm sure is choke the Nocxium and Megacyte dropped from Drones. The change of increasing the compounds that make low-end minerals is already taken care of by reducing the numbers of compounds that drop those. Each Compound will then go though a change in the amount of Nocxium and Megacyte.
Everything people have proposed have MAJOR changes to Drone space. CCP don't work that way, they would rather do something that passively effects the players. While these changes are direct impact of "Profitability" for Drone space they most certainly do not want to change it so much that Drone space becomes a wasteland.
Remember Drones supplies 30% of all minerals (According to that CSM LVV Posted) If they nerf Drone space so much alliances leave it for greener pastures their job has failed.
One last thing to consider here.
If they nerf Nocx and Megac from Compounds coming in to the game, we all know the effect is the price of those minerals will go up, less supply etc. So the "reward" for the Drone remains the same, eventually. Just it has less minerals it produces will be less. Consider it like... I could sell 100 Nocx for 100 ISK each, or 10 Nocxium for 1,000 each. The reward doesn't change just the mineral supply, and that is what I believe CCP are after.
Amarr for Life |
cosmoray
Bella Vista Holdings Corp
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Posted - 2010.04.01 15:04:00 -
[96]
Sencnes, if what you say is true about drone compounds CCP does not need to alter drop rates.
Currently megacyte only comes from glossy compound and on Sisi the reprocessing of glossy compound drops from 3 to 1. So that is a 66% drop of all megacyte coming from Drone space.
Nocxium currently comes from 4 compounds, the most important being lustering alloy. This dropped from 35 to 12.
Seeing as the four most important alloys/compounds (plush, glossy, opulent, lustering) are probably the most transported and reprocessed a major nerf is easy to implement without affecting drop rates.
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Hrodgar Ortal
Minmatar
Ma'adim Logistics
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Posted - 2010.04.01 15:52:00 -
[97]
Originally by: Xanthar Rex
Edited by: Xanthar Rex on 01/04/2010 11:38:13
Edited by: Xanthar Rex on 01/04/2010 11:37:34
Originally by: Hrodgar Ortal
Edited by: Hrodgar Ortal on 01/04/2010 11:17:24
If a>b => prices fall
If b<a => prices rise
edit: changed numbers to letters since it seems it was unclear.
(a>b) = (b<a)
In words, both criteria stated are the same, yet has a different outcome?
True, didn't write what I had intended and it came out as nonsense.
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SencneS
Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks
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Posted - 2010.04.01 16:33:00 -
[98]
Originally by: cosmoray
Sencnes, if what you say is true about drone compounds CCP does not need to alter drop rates.
Currently megacyte only comes from glossy compound and on Sisi the reprocessing of glossy compound drops from 3 to 1. So that is a 66% drop of all megacyte coming from Drone space.
Nocxium currently comes from 4 compounds, the most important being lustering alloy. This dropped from 35 to 12.
Seeing as the four most important alloys/compounds (plush, glossy, opulent, lustering) are probably the most transported and reprocessed a major nerf is easy to implement without affecting drop rates.
Read between the lines :)
They also said they wanted to balance the amount of minerals being supplied from Drones, so Drone space can be more self sufficient. This means they plan on increasing mineral supply of low end minerals. Been a while since I was in Drone space and killed a few battleship class drones, but I seem to remember they dropped a decent amount of Glossy. This was when drone space opened up so it might be different now.
Remember, the size of the drone dictates how many and of what compound they drop, frigates drop the basic stuff because the "reward" is not great for killing one, I seem to remember that there are by far more battleship class drones in drone space and very little frigates/cruisers. In order to make Drone space self sufficient a major increase in frigates and cruisers or battleships start dropping a significant amount of low end compounds.
The issue with just increasing that drop or increase the frequency of frigate/cruiser class drones would break the balance in risk vs reward. Decreasing the spawn rate of BS Class would nerf Drone space and break mineral supply as people abandon that part of space.
This is why I believe they plan on adjusting drop rates.
Amarr for Life |
Stafen
Killer Koalas
|
Posted - 2010.04.01 16:50:00 -
[99]
All the drone loot drop details have been made public here by CCP Grayscale.
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cosmoray
Bella Vista Holdings Corp
|
Posted - 2010.04.01 16:50:00 -
[100]
iirc a BS in Drone space drops around 29 plush and like 40+ glossy.
Plush just got a major Trit boost from 3200 to 4097, and pye from 800 to 1027. Glossy just got major boost on mexallon from 210 to 383.
Right there is all the major changes in a BS drop. Huge boost to low ends and a massive nerf to megacyte (3 to 1) and zyd (9 to 3).
At least CCP realises in 0.0 people will chain the BS's for better drops so the big changes have happened on the two big compound/alloy drops that will cause the major difference.
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SencneS
Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks
|
Posted - 2010.04.01 17:11:00 -
[101]
LOL I thought those numbers given earlier in the thread where speculation and I didn't know a Dev had already given out numbers.
To be honest the only information I went off was the dev blog and what I suspected was correct. At least one part of it. I still believe they will adjust drop rates of compounds in all drones. Because well you know the 1/10 drone complex's spread all over highsec just became pretty profitable. :)
Amarr for Life |
Graysteel
|
Posted - 2010.04.01 17:17:00 -
[102]
If they want more minerals coming from miners why couldn't they just add trit (or any other one or make up a new one) to every type of roid and remove it from any drop?
That way it forces that one mineral to come mining and no where else, and if you add it to every roid it would benefit hi, low, 0.0 and WH. |
Johnette Napolitano
|
Posted - 2010.04.01 17:54:00 -
[103]
Originally by: Stafen
All the drone loot drop details have been made public here by CCP Grayscale.
When he starts out by saying "Ah hell, it's a holiday, have some actual numbers." when today is April Fool's day...? I'm skeptical any numbers on Sisi are accurate until they need to be (patch day). |
Stafen
Killer Koalas
|
Posted - 2010.04.01 18:13:00 -
[104]
Originally by: Johnette Napolitano
Originally by: Stafen
All the drone loot drop details have been made public here by CCP Grayscale.
When he starts out by saying "Ah hell, it's a holiday, have some actual numbers." when today is April Fool's day...? I'm skeptical any numbers on Sisi are accurate until they need to be (patch day).
My hunch is that they may change if they find some better numbers, but at the moment it is there best effort. Judging on the feedback, the numbers sound good.
If you look at the changes to T2 components usage for T2 ships, the numbers pretty much ended up with what was on Sisi, plus a few tweaks. I say that is what will happen here.
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Shar Tegral
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Posted - 2010.04.01 18:41:00 -
[105]
Originally by: Johnette Napolitano
I'm skeptical any numbers on Sisi are accurate until they need to be (patch day).
It would not be the first time that CCP has sabotaged speculators. The only people who will definitely know what is going to happen before patch day is CCP.... and anyone on their MSN list. /joke
Wealth, howsoever got, in Eve makes
Lords of morons and gentlemen of thieves;
Aptitude and intellect are needless here;
'Tis impudence and money that grants fame. |
mourningdawn
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Posted - 2010.04.01 18:45:00 -
[106]
I had a big long tl;dr post written out and decided I could simplify. So here is my only insight: I am very sure that there is a reason Hammerhead's blog is linked in the opening paragraph of this economic fixes blog. Read both together.
As far as what to do about it, well buy low sell high. 
Also, to the speculators in Megacyte the other day: thank you. Rest assured your isk has a good home and I will feed it, care for it, and name it George.
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Doytard
FaDoyToy
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Posted - 2010.04.01 20:10:00 -
[107]
some thoughts of mine
on the drone poo. looking at glossy and plush the new values follow the building curve with some extra Mex and Nocx. (I'm assuming these will be the only ones really picked up, and I'm only looking at t1 so ignoring the opulent) I guess depending on what exactly people pick up there could be a surplus of lowends, not exactly sure what is happening on the roid front, but that surplus might not be too bad as it may balance out with ABC mining.
t1 manufacturing... lol. I think the only use of t1 manufacturing will be for input into t2 production. I doubt it will ever be profitable to build t1 items for sale.
as for t1 ships I see them taking a bit of a loss, at least initially. they should stabilize at some point. but I guess the big question is how much of a mineral sink was the Insurance fraud/exchange.
I just wonder if there will be a rebalanced on tag drops, like the shortage on certain tags, see the Republic Fleet captain tags. ~900k in jita, where npc price is 60k. and to a lesser extent the Federation Navy Colonel tags. get more than enough II tags, and not enough I tags. (no issues with some supply and demand, but it makes me wonder about the ratios going on)
but if it is just the crap pirate tags... meh.
also not quite sure what the loot change will do to marauder demand. guess we will have to wait to see what they do.
Hi how are you
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Tehg Rhind
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Posted - 2010.04.01 21:21:00 -
[108]
Ooph.
As I undrstand I the problem with insurance fraud was that it kept mineral prices artificially high by creating a bottom. Below X value of combined minerals you could build a ship and blow it up. From this I think I hear a lot of people speculating that this will crash the low end mineral market.
It won't.
The biggest item on this list isn't insurance stuff. It's ML0 items being removed from missions. This is going to kill my current trading system, but as the saying goes, adapt or die. You will definitely see a return to profitability in manufacturing these items, although I'm not so sure how much that will be (as most players don't use them.)
The biggest effect is going to be seen in the minerals market. I hear a lot of people talking about how zydrine/megacyte/nocx/isogen prices are going to go up. My bet is that trit/pyr/Mex are going to skyrocket, as they are the primary minerals grabbed from mission loot. This will tank the prices of the other minerals.
Good news (maybe) is that this will make minng a profitable venture again. I doubt it will affect low sec/null sec mining in any way other than badly. Mainly this will make high sec mining more profitable.
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Capt Fossil
Gallente
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Posted - 2010.04.01 22:29:00 -
[109]
Quote:
But from what I have seen in my own region reprocessed mission items make up a far larger part of the low end minerals market than drone alloys do the high end.
In my region macro miners produce almost 50% of the low end minerals, at least what I have been buying. Without them I would expect an increase across the board, but as it is I see Trit especially tanking if Insurance fraud goes away.
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Fitz VonHeise
Eye Bee Em
Stellar Defense Alliance
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Posted - 2010.04.01 22:30:00 -
[110]
If you look at what Zyd and Megac prices were a year ago... mining high ends has become much less profitable. I think CCP is trying to fix the high ends... to rebalance the prices back closer to where they were. (Miners in 0.0/WH space are suppose to have high reward for high risk)
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Tehg Rhind
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Posted - 2010.04.01 22:43:00 -
[111]
Hmmm. Tritanium probably will tank. I don't generate as much of that (as a percentage of the market) as I do pyerite and mexallon. Pyerite and Mex though.... I usually fillmy regions major hubs top buy order each day. Gonna need to do the maths when I get home.
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Syds Sinclair
J0urneys End
Journeys End Alliance
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Posted - 2010.04.01 22:45:00 -
[112]
..Speculating from the perspective that the blog hinted at a shortage of mins after the next expantion. Banning of all (or most) macro miners? Not just RMT macros, but even the player macro community that do it just for isk. If they were all gone, there would be a HUGE shortage of mins.
Buy my BPOs |
Breaker77
Gallente
Reclamation Industries
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Posted - 2010.04.01 22:46:00 -
[113]
Originally by: Fitz VonHeise
(Miners in 0.0/WH space are suppose to have high reward for high risk)
While true, I have found from experience that mining in WH space is much safer than highsec. Even more if you have a POS there. All the highend ores can be found in a C1 WH which won't even allow a battleship into it!!! Seriously, how risky is that??
Stay aligned, hit the scan button. No ****tards waiting to gank you because "my 1337 PvP skills let me kill a hulk that couldn't shoot back so my KB looks better". No hulkageddon. None of that stupid highsec bull**** that goes on.
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Fitz VonHeise
Eye Bee Em
Stellar Defense Alliance
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Posted - 2010.04.01 23:00:00 -
[114]
Originally by: Breaker77
...mining in WH space is much safer than highsec...
Well... my point really is that compaired to a year ago all zyd and megc prices have tanked. High end miners earn less then half what they use to. If it tanks any more you might find many miners leaving 0.0 space... or just parking their hulks like some here have said they already did.
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Kanatta Jing
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Posted - 2010.04.02 00:06:00 -
[115]
Originally by: Venkul Mul
Originally by: Letrange
Originally by: Bad Bobby
Low-sec gets some love. Will it be enough to significantly encourage low-sec mining as opposed to 0.0/WH mining? Will it be a boost to piracy?
no
As usual, players will go directly to 0.0 to mine after leaving high sec (if will get any profit after the change).
With the nice industrial upgrades they will have plenty of the boosted low sec minerals to mine and less risk.
I don't see why someone would chose the "play stupid" option where you get less isk and you have more risk.
Funny thing...
This is the safety bar, Use it to determine what area is safest and what are is most dangerous in EVE.
Highsec>blue nulsec>Wormhole Space>neutral nulsec>red nulsec>lowsec
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Tehg Rhind
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Posted - 2010.04.02 03:42:00 -
[116]
all speculation aside. I think we can all agree that mineral supply is going to decrease across the board. The removal of mission loot is going to remove a large quantity of mineral supply. What it will hit the worst remains to be seen, and is within the realm of speculation.
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar
Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2010.04.02 07:15:00 -
[117]
Quote:
It's clear high-sec ors are OK apart from Isogen.
... huge discussion about Nocx among others
How comes that if needed I can easily mine Nocxium to make:
- T1 basic mods to later use to make T2 versions
- Battleships
- Freigthers
all in hi sec, at regular belts?
Quote:
I just wonder if there will be a rebalanced on tag drops, like the shortage on certain tags, see the Republic Fleet captain tags. ~900k in jita, where npc price is 60k.
They cannot rebalance tag drops as it's just basic demand and offer. Stop all grinding Caldari like chimpanzes and the shortage will magically drop like a stone, LP per isk will finally become better than the LOL it's today and lag will improve.
One if my alts is in NPC Caldari chat (SAK) all what I listen all day long by new players:
- "Hi, I just started today, when can I farm L4" (guess how many low level and low tier tags this yields?)
- "Hi, I just started today, they told me to roll Caldari because it's those that make money quick".
-
Auditing & consulting
When looking for investors, please read
http://tinyurl.com/n5ys4h + http://tinyurl.com/lrg4oz
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Doytard
FaDoyToy
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Posted - 2010.04.02 08:32:00 -
[118]
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
They cannot rebalance tag drops as it's just basic demand and offer. Stop all grinding Caldari like chimpanzes and the shortage will magically drop like a stone, LP per isk will finally become better than the LOL it's today and lag will improve.
One if my alts is in NPC Caldari chat (SAK) all what I listen all day long by new players:
- "Hi, I just started today, when can I farm L4" (guess how many low level and low tier tags this yields?)
- "Hi, I just started today, they told me to roll Caldari because it's those that make money quick".
care to tell me where I should run missions to get these awesome kill minmatar missions then?
Hi how are you
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Kerfira
Audaces Fortuna Iuvat
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Posted - 2010.04.02 11:15:00 -
[119]
Originally by: Hrodgar Ortal
1. T1m0 loot reduction => less minerals => upwards price pressure
2. Mineral distribution changes => downwards pressure in general on the minerals they are boosting in 0.0 (mostly trit and pye I expect)
3. Insurance made dynamic => downward spiral on minerals (this effect is uncertain, it depends on IF the m0 loot reduction are larger than the usage of minerals by "insurance fraud")
4. Supercap insurance changes => supercaps being used less => reduction in supercap losses => reduction in demand for minerals => downwards pressure
Your point #4 is speculative and probably mostly wrong. People will still use supercaps pretty much just as they have. If mineral prices drop, more people will use them.
You also forgot one:
5. If mineral prices drop, less macro-miners will mine and convert to macro-missioning. This'll not be an upwards/downwards pressure, but will act as a stabiliser for whatever equilibrium is found.
I base this one on a fact that most people ignore. Macro-miners are the group of EVE 'players' who're MOST sensitive to price drops!
Personally, based ONLY on the content of this change, prices will probably drop (a lot), mainly because of your #3. It depends a lot of how much meta 0 loot is removed, and how large a percentage of total mineral production it is. We have no figures for this!
One factor that could confuse the figures is if the campaign up north turns into a real (virtual) bloodbath. If thousands of capitals and hundreds of supercaps are lost, that alone might put enough of an unknown factor into the equation that it'll be difficult to discern cause and effect in the mineral price changes that will happen.
In the end, I do not believe any of us have enough information to predict what will happen. We all have our best guesses and beliefs, but there's simply not enough information for us to make any educated estimates....
Which is exactly as it should be
Originally by: CCP Wrangler
EVE isn't designed to just look like a cold, dark and harsh world, it's designed to be a cold, dark and harsh world.
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar
Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2010.04.02 11:59:00 -
[120]
Quote:
care to tell me where I should run missions to get these awesome kill minmatar missions then?
Are you trolling?
-
Auditing & consulting
When looking for investors, please read
http://tinyurl.com/n5ys4h + http://tinyurl.com/lrg4oz
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Tehg Rhind
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Posted - 2010.04.02 14:55:00 -
[121]
A lot of the speculation on the affects of insurance are based on the assumption that CCP won't be using any control loops to manage the insurance change payouts with respect to mineral prices. I sincerely hope this is not the case.
This system should be monitored by something called a PID loop. It's a common tool used to regulate the speed and strength of correction factors. Temperature on a reactor is a common example.
If you tune a PID loop wrong, or (god forbid) don't use one, you see massive fluctuations and oscillations in your controlled system. This seems to be what a lot of people here are concerned about. If, on the other hand CCP uses a conservative loop, then changes will occur much more slowly.
This would mean that insurance rates would still maintain a bottom as they slowly slid down, until they hit their sweet spot.
Think of it like a bathtub. You ease into it, you don't jump in, realize it's too hot, then jump out, then jump back in. Or like your shower. When it's too cold do you turn off all the cold water, then it gets too hot and you turn it all the way to cold?
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clixoras
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Posted - 2010.04.02 16:10:00 -
[122]
Edited by: clixoras on 02/04/2010 16:14:03
Originally by: Tehg Rhind
all speculation aside. I think we can all agree that mineral supply is going to decrease across the board. The removal of mission loot is going to remove a large quantity of mineral supply. What it will hit the worst remains to be seen, and is within the realm of speculation.
A 'side-effect' could be that people will start to salvage their missions less and less and m1-m4 + salvage will get more expensive as will.
edit: about the supercaps. The deployment will be a massive psychological advantage. Parties must be sure of their capacities when they are deploying one right ? ;) So. i dont see them being deployed less.
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Breaker77
Gallente
Reclamation Industries
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Posted - 2010.04.02 16:19:00 -
[123]
Originally by: clixoras
edit: about the supercaps. The deployment will be a massive psychological advantage. Parties must be sure of their capacities when they are deploying one right ? ;) So. i dont see them being deployed less.
TQ can't handle 500 person battles now, so unless thats fixed there won't be any battles as everyone with a supercap will want to outnumber the enemy by 10:1.
I think CCP has just increased the demand for blobing
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Taram Caldar
Royal Black Watch Highlanders
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Posted - 2010.04.02 16:57:00 -
[124]
Originally by: Doytard
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
They cannot rebalance tag drops as it's just basic demand and offer. Stop all grinding Caldari like chimpanzes and the shortage will magically drop like a stone, LP per isk will finally become better than the LOL it's today and lag will improve.
One if my alts is in NPC Caldari chat (SAK) all what I listen all day long by new players:
- "Hi, I just started today, when can I farm L4" (guess how many low level and low tier tags this yields?)
- "Hi, I just started today, they told me to roll Caldari because it's those that make money quick".
care to tell me where I should run missions to get these awesome kill minmatar missions then?
Let's see... which faction is the minmatar enemy... you get 3 guesses.
Market Alerts Mailing List
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adriaans
Amarr
Ankaa.
Nair Al-Zaurak
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Posted - 2010.04.02 18:08:00 -
[125]
Originally by: Taram Caldar
Originally by: Doytard
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
They cannot rebalance tag drops as it's just basic demand and offer. Stop all grinding Caldari like chimpanzes and the shortage will magically drop like a stone, LP per isk will finally become better than the LOL it's today and lag will improve.
One if my alts is in NPC Caldari chat (SAK) all what I listen all day long by new players:
- "Hi, I just started today, when can I farm L4" (guess how many low level and low tier tags this yields?)
- "Hi, I just started today, they told me to roll Caldari because it's those that make money quick".
care to tell me where I should run missions to get these awesome kill minmatar missions then?
Let's see... which faction is the minmatar enemy... you get 3 guesses.
funny how my amarr mission alt only gets anti-matar missions on average every 25-50 missions... because that's how rare they are in my experience.
my FW alt however could potentially net a lot of them.. but then again, simply blitzing those are better
--signature--
Support the Field Command ship boost: Here |
McCRAZY
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Posted - 2010.04.02 20:27:00 -
[126]
Well after reading the blog extensively i think it could of gone a lot worse but i was wondering if anyone has considered how the reduction in insurance fraud will affect salvage prices. I imagine its a very small percentage of salvage overall but still something to consider i guess.
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Breaker77
Gallente
Reclamation Industries
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Posted - 2010.04.02 20:29:00 -
[127]
Originally by: McCRAZY
i was wondering if anyone has considered how the reduction in insurance fraud will affect salvage prices. I imagine its a very small percentage of salvage overall but still something to consider i guess.
Another thing to consider is that if T2 insurance does get a boost and more people start taking risks with T2 ships, how will T2 rig prices react if more T2 salvage is available?
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cosmoray
Bella Vista Holdings Corp
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Posted - 2010.04.02 21:49:00 -
[128]
I am still surprised that no one has mentioned the market effect of the drone alloy/compound changes (reprocessing value)?
Lucent, cough, cough*
For those who have not done the calculations, price change:
Plush = 93.85%
Glossy = 116.21%
Opulent = 100%
lustering = 104.08%
motley = 114.47%
dark = 114.62%
lucent = 160.29%
gleaming = 105.09%
precious = 100%
crystal = 81%
condensed = 116.26%
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Hel O'Ween
Men On A Mission
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Posted - 2010.04.03 08:59:00 -
[129]
Originally by: SencneS
What is CCP's objective. In the past when one mineral became too pricey (Trit) They stealth buffed Veld in highsec.
Just a reminder: the stealth Veldspar respawn buff wasn't implemented due to its price. This was only the symptom. It was meant as a strike against macro miners, because all belts were mined empty by macros shortly after they spawned, leaving real miners without anything to mine. Wasn't it even a byproduct of Holy Rage?
Of course, this did influence Trit price, but ingame market economy wasn't the driving force behind this change.
--
EVEWalletAware - an offline wallet manager |
Claire Voyant
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Posted - 2010.04.03 11:03:00 -
[130]
Originally by: Hel O'Ween
Originally by: SencneS
What is CCP's objective. In the past when one mineral became too pricey (Trit) They stealth buffed Veld in highsec.
Just a reminder: the stealth Veldspar respawn buff wasn't implemented due to its price. This was only the symptom. It was meant as a strike against macro miners, because all belts were mined empty by macros shortly after they spawned, leaving real miners without anything to mine. Wasn't it even a byproduct of Holy Rage?
Of course, this did influence Trit price, but ingame market economy wasn't the driving force behind this change.
Yes and no. Trit prices were rising dramatically after Unholy Rage and people started complaining, so the respawn rate was changed and now people complain about cheap trit. So CCP has reacted to market prices in the past, at least when their actions were the apparent cause of the initial problem, but it shouldn't give us any reassurance that their "corrections" will be well thought out and measured.
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Capt Fossil
Gallente
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Posted - 2010.04.03 14:19:00 -
[131]
Quote:
but it shouldn't give us any reassurance that their "corrections" will be well thought out and measured.
If they do not bring it on along with a major assault on macro-mining it's an exercise in futility. That's alot of paid accounts to close..........
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RJ Nobel
Nobel Research and Development
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Posted - 2010.04.03 16:39:00 -
[132]
Originally by: Claire Voyant
Yes and no. Trit prices were rising dramatically after Unholy Rage and people started complaining, so the respawn rate was changed and now people complain about cheap trit. So CCP has reacted to market prices in the past, at least when their actions were the apparent cause of the initial problem, but it shouldn't give us any reassurance that their "corrections" will be well thought out and measured.
The market logs, they show nothing. Using Jita prices, trit did not "spike" after Unholy Rage. It actually peaked in price around late April and was in a gradual decline all summer. The veldspar buff following Unholy Rage simply accelerated the decline.
Originally by: Capt Fossil
If they do not bring it on along with a major assault on macro-mining it's an exercise in futility. That's alot of paid accounts to close..........
Maybe. Logic would say that there's two types of macro-miners - those in it to generate ISK, and those in it to generate RL income via RMT. The ISK generators most likely fund their accounts via subscription to maximize their ISK revenue (one macro-miner can pay for a lot of PVP, much moreso than simply selling GTC's). This is a "victimless crime" - it's against the rules, but it's hard to articulate a specific injury.
On the other hand, RMT macrominers are in it to generate RL income. They use PLEX's to fund their accounts and make their income off selling whatever additional ISK each account produces. This IS harmful to Eve, and it's exactly why CCP put so much effort into Un/Holy Rage. Shutting down RMT macroer's probably has very little impact on CCP's subscription profit, but it makes a sizeable difference for the game economy (and server performance).
As a side-note, I don't think that CCP has any real concern about macro-mining. Much of their official discussion of RMT talks about macro-missioners, which, in theory, make FAR more ISK than miners. I suspect that CCP's next action against macro-miners won't be a ban-wave - it'll be a revamp of the mining mechanics.
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Diomedes Calypso
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Posted - 2010.04.03 18:22:00 -
[133]
How often has teh basket of ores been above the floor ?
Also, do you guys think that CCP with the data they have has a good handle on how much ore is being consumed via that "ier" or whatever you call the sale-of-ships-to-npcs-via-insuring-and-intentionally-destructing?
Have they supplied any guesses? (they'd need to do some gueess work and use some heuristics based on observations)
How about minerals via reprocessing of mission loot? (that they could come close to pinning down)
Anyone have their own guesses for the two figures? I suppose if they reduced the supply to meet the current isk sink they'd be ok...
I also wonder if they've seen an alarming trend in the volume of the ier which would suggest that the growth mined or is far exceeding the ore sink of normal play ship losses and that meeting the current ore balance would do nothing to keep the trend of increased mining from dropping prices til the biggest producers stopped mining more.
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SpiderWebMayhem
YSS Industries
Shadow of xXDEATHXx
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Posted - 2010.04.03 20:58:00 -
[134]
Originally by: cosmoray
I am still surprised that no one has mentioned the market effect of the drone alloy/compound changes (reprocessing value)?
Lucent, cough, cough*
For those who have not done the calculations, price change:
Plush = 93.85%
Glossy = 116.21%
Opulent = 100%
lustering = 104.08%
motley = 114.47%
dark = 114.62%
lucent = 160.29%
gleaming = 105.09%
precious = 100%
crystal = 81%
condensed = 116.26%
It is mostly pointless to use this as a comparison since after the patch, mineral pricing will change dramatically. You just can't predict what a particular alloy will be worth because we have no way of knowing how the insurance and meta0 changes will affect prices.
Alloys could be pure gold or complete crap, depending on how things settle out.
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Tehg Rhind
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Posted - 2010.04.03 21:51:00 -
[135]
Originally by: SpiderWebMayhem
Originally by: cosmoray
I am still surprised that no one has mentioned the market effect of the drone alloy/compound changes (reprocessing value)?
Lucent, cough, cough*
For those who have not done the calculations, price change:
Plush = 93.85%
Glossy = 116.21%
Opulent = 100%
lustering = 104.08%
motley = 114.47%
dark = 114.62%
lucent = 160.29%
gleaming = 105.09%
precious = 100%
crystal = 81%
condensed = 116.26%
It is mostly pointless to use this as a comparison since after the patch, mineral pricing will change dramatically. You just can't predict what a particular alloy will be worth because we have no way of knowing how the insurance and meta0 changes will affect prices.
Alloys could be pure gold or complete crap, depending on how things settle out.
\
This. You have 3 major changes coming into mineral prices simultaneously, with some other minor ones as well. All of these will have direct affects on the mineral market, as well as confounding inter-relationships. Anyone that can correctly predict the final outcome should just quit EvE and go invent a new design of experiments/mathematical/financial modelling system and retire in Hawaii.
I still think the only thing that's known for sure is that 1 source of minerals is completely dissapearing. If they add enough ML equipment to the mission drops you could still see mineral income maintained, but I think that defeats the purpose CCP was going for in the first place.
Take for instance Dual Heavy Beam Lasers. Those sell at a daily volume of ~2-3k in forge. Their mineral value is ~450k (low ball). This item alone generates ~1 bil in minerals. For comparison the entire tritanium market of forge is worth ~120 billion daily. Pyr is ~40 bil, and mex is ~50 bil. So this 1 item (which is mainly composed of those 3 minerals) accounts for ~.5% of the mineral market.
That's ONE item. Here's some other ones.
Dual 250mm Railgun I = 300 mil
Dual Heavy Pulse laser = 360 mil
250mm railgun i = 600 mil
large proton smartbomb = 350 mil
My math may be a little off on this, as I dont have access to my....well to my Access db, but its generally not that far off (although I may have missed a 0 in one of these). These are some of the higher value reprocessing items, and are mostly composed of trit, pyr, and mex.
I still want to look at the math on drone alloys to see if they are going to be increasing the volume of alloys enough to compensate, but from what I have seen the alloys don't include a bump to mexallon, which is a huge part of the value calculation for these.
And to be honest if CCP decides to compensate for the loss of minerals by increasing drone alloy quantities I may just stop trading, as that would narrow the focus in trading down even farther than it already is, which I think is a shame (big fan of trading needing to require handling 100+ buy orders. 5 order traders are....well they do make a lot of money. Can't argue with that.)
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Seminole Sun
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Posted - 2010.04.04 01:06:00 -
[136]
Is it unreasonable to expect the end goal of these changes to be a reording of profitability on the roids that somewhat resembles risk?
So Veldspar, Scordite, etc should be the LEAST profitable with the low-sec stuff in the middle and the null-sec stuff at the top. You could back in to some rough estimates for mineral prices from that. Any change almost CERTAINLY has to lead to an increased value in Nocx (which, I think, we all agree is wildly undervalued based purely on the economics of production).
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ChrisIsherwood
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Posted - 2010.04.04 03:04:00 -
[137]
Originally by: Seminole Sun
Is it unreasonable to expect the end goal of these changes to be a reording of profitability on the roids that somewhat resembles risk?
The most common objection is that 0.0, especially in an upgraded system your alliance controls, can return better minerals and yet be less risk than losec.
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Venkul Mul
Gallente
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Posted - 2010.04.04 06:42:00 -
[138]
Originally by: Breaker77
Originally by: McCRAZY
i was wondering if anyone has considered how the reduction in insurance fraud will affect salvage prices. I imagine its a very small percentage of salvage overall but still something to consider i guess.
Another thing to consider is that if T2 insurance does get a boost and more people start taking risks with T2 ships, how will T2 rig prices react if more T2 salvage is available?
In theory there will be an increase in T1 rig prices as less mission runners and ratters will be looting and salvaging the NPC ships.
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Celia Therone
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Posted - 2010.04.04 07:34:00 -
[139]
Originally by: Seminole Sun
Is it unreasonable to expect the end goal of these changes to be a reording of profitability on the roids that somewhat resembles risk?
So Veldspar, Scordite, etc should be the LEAST profitable with the low-sec stuff in the middle and the null-sec stuff at the top. You could back in to some rough estimates for mineral prices from that. Any change almost CERTAINLY has to lead to an increased value in Nocx (which, I think, we all agree is wildly undervalued based purely on the economics of production).
My guess is that eventually you'll end up with two types of asteroids: High sec asteroids (Veldspar, Pyroxeres, Plagioclase, Scordite, Omber and Kernite) which should all be locked in to about the same isk per cubic meter. With a few possible outlyers based on Materials for War Preparation, rarity (you can run out of scordite for example, and kernite doesn't spawn in all regions).
Then you'll have everything else which will be mined almost exclusively in zero sec and wormholes and will stabilize at approximately the same isk per cubic meter which will be some (fairly small) multiple of the high sec m3 price.
Depending on how brutal they are with meta 0 and drone loot those may still distort mineral prices.
Still a lot of unknowns and it's a huge change so I wouldn't be surprised to see some huge swings on the way. Like crisis selling of trit when the patch goes live forcing the price way down. However, depending on how they do insurance, it's possible that the insurance fraudsters will be able to keep going and smooth the potential crashes out.
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar
Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2010.04.04 10:57:00 -
[140]
Quote:
The most common objection is that 0.0, especially in an upgraded system your alliance controls, can return better minerals and yet be less risk than losec.
Maybe, just maybe, this is another push to do what CCP wanted: kick people in their butts till they move to such 0.0. Aka Dominion in a nutshell.
-
Auditing & consulting
When looking for investors, please read
http://tinyurl.com/n5ys4h + http://tinyurl.com/lrg4oz
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Breaker77
Gallente
Reclamation Industries
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Posted - 2010.04.04 12:13:00 -
[141]
Originally by: Venkul Mul
In theory there will be an increase in T1 rig prices as less mission runners and ratters will be looting and salvaging the NPC ships.
Another reason to make wrecks scannable to open up the salvaging profession.
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Venkul Mul
Gallente
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Posted - 2010.04.04 12:26:00 -
[142]
Edited by: Venkul Mul on 04/04/2010 12:28:13
Originally by: Breaker77
Originally by: Venkul Mul
In theory there will be an increase in T1 rig prices as less mission runners and ratters will be looting and salvaging the NPC ships.
Another reason to make wrecks scannable to open up the salvaging profession.
What make you think that reducing even more PvE combat in low sec will make EVE better?
Probing wrecks mean that the missions locations, encounters and complex will be found in a few seconds if there is even a few wrecks in them and that even if you warp away to a safespot to avoid probers the location were you were will be discovered making useless to return there.
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Breaker77
Gallente
Reclamation Industries
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Posted - 2010.04.04 12:45:00 -
[143]
Originally by: Venkul Mul
Probing wrecks mean that the missions locations, encounters and complex will be found in a few seconds if there is even a few wrecks in them and that even if you warp away to a safespot to avoid probers the location were you were will be discovered making useless to return there.
 You are completely wrong. Right now you can scan out ships so if someone is running a mission/plex/whatever in lowsec they will be found. Scan out the ship, warp to it, and then they know the location of the site making it useless to return there anyway. It's impossible to make a ship unscannable and still have enough tank and DPS to run a site in lowsec.
I'm talking about the thousands of wrecks that no one salvages that are just floating in space with no way to scan them down?
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Jack Coutu
Gallente
Duty.
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Posted - 2010.04.04 14:22:00 -
[144]
Originally by: mourningdawn
I had a big long tl;dr post written out and decided I could simplify. So here is my only insight: I am very sure that there is a reason Hammerhead's blog is linked in the opening paragraph of this economic fixes blog. Read both together.
As far as what to do about it, well buy low sell high.
Also, to the speculators in Megacyte the other day: thank you. Rest assured your isk has a good home and I will feed it, care for it, and name it George.
Bet you feel like an ass atm.
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adriaans
Amarr
Ankaa.
Nair Al-Zaurak
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Posted - 2010.04.04 15:27:00 -
[145]
Edited by: adriaans on 04/04/2010 15:28:40
Originally by: Breaker77
Originally by: Venkul Mul
Probing wrecks mean that the missions locations, encounters and complex will be found in a few seconds if there is even a few wrecks in them and that even if you warp away to a safespot to avoid probers the location were you were will be discovered making useless to return there.
You are completely wrong. Right now you can scan out ships so if someone is running a mission/plex/whatever in lowsec they will be found. Scan out the ship, warp to it, and then they know the location of the site making it useless to return there anyway. It's impossible to make a ship unscannable and still have enough tank and DPS to run a site in lowsec.
I'm talking about the thousands of wrecks that no one salvages that are just floating in space with no way to scan them down?
a tengu does that just fine for a fitting of merely 65 mill at the cheapest (+ ship + subs obviously). Doesn't even need implants.
(stats: 600 dps, 200 dps tank which is more than enough when AB speed is 650+, does any low sec plex and mission without problem, although if you're in a plex you can be found as they can probe the plex)
--signature--
Support the Field Command ship boost: Here |
Capt Fossil
Gallente
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Posted - 2010.04.04 17:22:00 -
[146]
High end minerals have been climbing all weekend in Jita.
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Rodarine
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Posted - 2010.04.04 19:05:00 -
[147]
Originally by: Capt Fossil
High end minerals have been climbing all weekend in Jita.
Because peopel with way too much money and looking for soem excitement in a rather boring game (trade wise) are ooking to try and speculate thatthe prices of thoseminerals will rise due to a lack of loot refining. Which may or may not happen, but is mostly dependant upon whetjer nul sec and low sec mining picks up. Everyone already knows that hi sec minerals are going to crash and crash hard. Trit and Pyer are plummeting. But speculators are hoping that people wont mine the hi end minerals and thus what they have will be a good supply and will sell for a premium. So they are relying on miners unwillingness to risk anything rather than a game mechanic. If the miners do in fact go and mine thse minerals these guys will maybe take a abth, unless some work around or 'fix' comes to help artificially prop up mineral prices accross the board.
As it is right now even weeks before this update is coming out, demand for most things is nearly non existant. Mineral channel is a ghost town, while a couple weeks ago there were so many buyer that sellers couldnt keep up. Now no one is buying and sellers (which were scarce to begin with) dont even talk inthere. Unless it about religion or politics.
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Jack Coutu
Gallente
Duty.
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Posted - 2010.04.04 22:02:00 -
[148]
Originally by: Rodarine
Originally by: Capt Fossil
High end minerals have been climbing all weekend in Jita.
Because peopel with way too much money and looking for soem excitement in a rather boring game (trade wise) are ooking to try and speculate thatthe prices of thoseminerals will rise due to a lack of loot refining. Which may or may not happen, but is mostly dependant upon whetjer nul sec and low sec mining picks up. Everyone already knows that hi sec minerals are going to crash and crash hard. Trit and Pyer are plummeting. But speculators are hoping that people wont mine the hi end minerals and thus what they have will be a good supply and will sell for a premium. So they are relying on miners unwillingness to risk anything rather than a game mechanic. If the miners do in fact go and mine thse minerals these guys will maybe take a abth, unless some work around or 'fix' comes to help artificially prop up mineral prices accross the board.
As it is right now even weeks before this update is coming out, demand for most things is nearly non existant. Mineral channel is a ghost town, while a couple weeks ago there were so many buyer that sellers couldnt keep up. Now no one is buying and sellers (which were scarce to begin with) dont even talk inthere. Unless it about religion or politics.
Don't think so Rodarine, people are buying highends for a reason. While you may consider the mega prices "inflated" they are nothing compared to old prices. The drone regions rebalance mixed with the nerfing of mission loot will hit high ends hard. I know alot of it is speculation but even AFTER major speculation somethings remain high (technetium). Eithier way I would imagine those who bought alot of mega at the 2k to 2.3k range will do quite well. I invested in this myself once I saw the changes occuring and bought a few regions out. I am sure many more will hope on now, and they in my opinion are right too. High sec mining is also prime macro mining. Not many are willing to afk macro it in 0.0. Mission runners will no longer be dumping high ends into the markets and miners in 0.0 aren't a majority. In all the market may be volatile but when has it not been?
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xylopia
Gallente
Center for Advanced Studies
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Posted - 2010.04.05 00:35:00 -
[149]
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
1) Lowest confidence (say 60%)
2) Better confidence (80%)
3) Best confidence (90%+)
Thank you Vaerah for the sweet post. You've cleared my mind very throughly with that. |
Doytard
FaDoyToy
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Posted - 2010.04.05 01:38:00 -
[150]
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
Quote:
care to tell me where I should run missions to get these awesome kill minmatar missions then?
Are you trolling?
dead serious. I would love a source of highly overpriced tags. because afaik there is a level 3 mission that drops 2 of them, and enemies abound 5/5 drops 4 (I think I might have had some already and mixed them) of them. did I mention both are offered in caldari space!?
is there an awesome level 5 out there? (sorry I can't remember exactly what drops them, but it isn't a battleship, and most level 5s look pretty battleship heavy)
Faction warfare maybe?
or do people have to move to angel space to get kill minmatar missions to get tags for the amarr lp store
Hi how are you
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Stephente
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Posted - 2010.04.05 04:40:00 -
[151]
Short selling is possible with the minerals market. For example, if you look at tritanium like it is a currency, the current exchange rate is something like 1 ISK = 2.94 tritanium. If you know that the price of tritanium will drop, you can convert all of your tritanium into ISK, and after tritanium hits rock bottom, you can buy back your original amount of tritanium at a fraction of its original ISK value.
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Rodarine
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Posted - 2010.04.05 04:58:00 -
[152]
Well I remember a certain someone was paying 2800 for mega a couple months ago (when it was still 2600 or so and before it freefell) trying to corner the market on it. Wouldnt be surprised if he and his crew werent the ones buying up all the mega again. But as it stands mega is right about where it was right after Dominion first came out. So the prices really arent that high (yet). But I saw sell orders in Jita for almost 2900 and buy orders are at 2675. So that is starting to creep up there. But then again it is Sunday and a rumor and a speculation and a lot of people start seeing a scamper and people empty some of their holdings.
Be intersting to see how these prices hold up during the week, if they go back down to 2100 or so then it looks like a fire sale and a head fake to make a few ISK mesing with people. If it stays and gets even higer, say 3K, then it mght be time to give the speculators something to buy :P.
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Clair Bear
Ursine Research and Production
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Posted - 2010.04.05 07:37:00 -
[153]
Plenty of scc-lounge regulars saw this coming when someone first noticed changed insurance payouts. Most have long since liquidated their T1 mountains, and the more forward thinking even ejected their researched BS BPOs.
Here's the deal. There are MANY multi-account holders who would have to cancel their accounts when the miners and manufacturers can no longer produce at least 280M ISK/month. You don't need 10+ accounts to grind level 4s. 2 or 3 is enough, especially if you no longer need to loot.
Which means CCP will try to figure out some way to give miners purpose. But seeing how every previous effort at rebalancing has had more unintended than intended consequences... The big money will be in predicting the vast collateral damage.
My only prediction: major L4 mission hubs will see a drastic increase in population.
And in summary, bigger blobs are the answer. Now what was the question? |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar
Vahrokh Consulting
|
Posted - 2010.04.05 07:56:00 -
[154]
Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha on 05/04/2010 07:57:58
Quote:
dead serious. I would love a source of highly overpriced tags
Well, since it's in direct competition with one of the activities I do, I won't be too much specific.
- Caldaris are not in direct war like Amarr are.
- There is one hi sec L4 mission where you are sent to kill your own allies. Those doing it don't even know what to do of those tokens. This should tell you where to look for.
- There are "sacks" of tokens and there are tools to find them out.
- You won't get good token amounts in the agent you are using (don't ask me how I know, I just do). AFAIK (but hey I am not such a PRO elder player, I started EvE in 2009) the agents, even those of the same level, have assigned missions off "pools". I know where I mission there is one agent that gives frequent faction missions and others who do that every 20-30 missions instead.
And finally, my reply was a provocation. It was about stopping grinding Caldari, being the race every chimp farms they will be the most competitive, spreads suck, income sucks, agents rewards suck, even R&D agents suck (no joke, my L4 R&D agent near Jita yields(ed) below a L2 agent I got elsewhere).
Spend 2 weeks and grind an alt for another race and you will see another kind of gains, quality and income.
-
Auditing & consulting
When looking for investors, please read
http://tinyurl.com/n5ys4h + http://tinyurl.com/lrg4oz
|
Jack Coutu
Gallente
Duty.
|
Posted - 2010.04.05 13:06:00 -
[155]
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha on 05/04/2010 07:57:58
Quote:
dead serious. I would love a source of highly overpriced tags
Well, since it's in direct competition with one of the activities I do, I won't be too much specific.
- Caldaris are not in direct war like Amarr are.
- There is one hi sec L4 mission where you are sent to kill your own allies. Those doing it don't even know what to do of those tokens. This should tell you where to look for.
- There are "sacks" of tokens and there are tools to find them out.
- You won't get good token amounts in the agent you are using (don't ask me how I know, I just do). AFAIK (but hey I am not such a PRO elder player, I started EvE in 2009) the agents, even those of the same level, have assigned missions off "pools". I know where I mission there is one agent that gives frequent faction missions and others who do that every 20-30 missions instead.
And finally, my reply was a provocation. It was about stopping grinding Caldari, being the race every chimp farms they will be the most competitive, spreads suck, income sucks, agents rewards suck, even R&D agents suck (no joke, my L4 R&D agent near Jita yields(ed) below a L2 agent I got elsewhere).
Spend 2 weeks and grind an alt for another race and you will see another kind of gains, quality and income.
This, people far more resoruceful than the whiner about kill minnie missions have been gathering tags and profiting for ages. If you can't figure it out on your own with so many options available, you should probably just stick to lvl4 grinding and leave us alone.
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J'J'J'Jita
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Posted - 2010.04.05 16:13:00 -
[156]
Originally by: Rodarine
Be intersting to see how these prices hold up during the week, if they go back down to 2100 or so then it looks like a fire sale and a head fake to make a few ISK mesing with people. If it stays and gets even higer, say 3K, then it mght be time to give the speculators something to buy :P.
Megacyte is well set up for long term gains. It's the only highend whose loot table is being reduced in drone compounds, and there will also be less of it from non-drone npc drops. Its year-long history shows that a much higher price for it is sustainable, and the changes to insurance (encouraging expensive ships) and the Max2 campaign (lots of ships blowing up) help spur its short-term use until Tyrannis is released. Buy mega.
Or rather, read this and wish you had bought mega.
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mourningdawn
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Posted - 2010.04.05 22:28:00 -
[157]
Originally by: Jack Coutu
Originally by: mourningdawn
I had a big long tl;dr post written out and decided I could simplify. So here is my only insight: I am very sure that there is a reason Hammerhead's blog is linked in the opening paragraph of this economic fixes blog. Read both together.
As far as what to do about it, well buy low sell high.
Also, to the speculators in Megacyte the other day: thank you. Rest assured your isk has a good home and I will feed it, care for it, and name it George.
Bet you feel like an ass atm.
Ass man status confirmed. Though we'll see if this change sticks.
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Tehg Rhind
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Posted - 2010.04.05 22:35:00 -
[158]
Does anyone have any idea what the quantity of drone alloy that goes into the market each day is? I was looking over the EvE metrics data on Forge is, but I don't think that accurately represents the market since most of it is coming out of the drone regions.
Based on the Forge numbers it looks like the alloys represent a pretty small part of the mineral market, but I believe that is not representative.
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LarcatOfRens
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Posted - 2010.04.05 22:43:00 -
[159]
Originally by: Stephente
Short selling is possible with the minerals market. For example, if you look at tritanium like it is a currency, the current exchange rate is something like 1 ISK = 2.94 tritanium. If you know that the price of tritanium will drop, you can convert all of your tritanium into ISK, and after tritanium hits rock bottom, you can buy back your original amount of tritanium at a fraction of its original ISK value.
This post makes me think you don't know what short selling is. Hint: Selling from a long position is not short selling.
The only currenlty possible way to short would be what is sometimes called a "synthetic" short. I haven't figured one out, but there may be one hidden somewhere in the game. The basic way one works is thing A increases in value when thing B goes down in value. Buying thing A is a synthetic short of B.
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Kenz Rider
J Club
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Posted - 2010.04.05 22:44:00 -
[160]
Originally by: Stephente
Short selling is possible with the minerals market. For example, if you look at tritanium like it is a currency, the current exchange rate is something like 1 ISK = 2.94 tritanium. If you know that the price of tritanium will drop, you can convert all of your tritanium into ISK, and after tritanium hits rock bottom, you can buy back your original amount of tritanium at a fraction of its original ISK value.
That's not the definition of selling short. That's the definition of owning cash.
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FunzzeR
Death of Virtue
MeatSausage EXPRESS
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Posted - 2010.04.06 02:43:00 -
[161]
Originally by: Kenz Rider
Originally by: Stephente
Short selling is possible with the minerals market. For example, if you look at tritanium like it is a currency, the current exchange rate is something like 1 ISK = 2.94 tritanium. If you know that the price of tritanium will drop, you can convert all of your tritanium into ISK, and after tritanium hits rock bottom, you can buy back your original amount of tritanium at a fraction of its original ISK value.
That's not the definition of selling short. That's the definition of owning cash.
Agreed unless you actually borrowed the trit from another party.
PRAISE THE SCOTTISH FOLD!!
THEIR WILL SHALL BE DONE!! |
Stephente
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Posted - 2010.04.06 06:31:00 -
[162]
Edited by: Stephente on 06/04/2010 06:34:38
Originally by: LarcatOfRens
Edited by: LarcatOfRens on 05/04/2010 22:47:56
Originally by: Stephente
Short selling is possible with the minerals market. For example, if you look at tritanium like it is a currency, the current exchange rate is something like 1 ISK = 2.94 tritanium. If you know that the price of tritanium will drop, you can convert all of your tritanium into ISK, and after tritanium hits rock bottom, you can buy back your original amount of tritanium at a fraction of its original ISK value.
This post makes me think you don't know what short selling is. Hint: Selling from a long position is not short selling.
The only currenlty possible way to short would be what is sometimes called a "synthetic" short. I haven't figured one out, but there may be one hidden somewhere in the game. The basic way one works is thing A increases in value when thing B goes down in value. Buying thing A is a synthetic short of B.
The situation you are describing requires you to have a preexistant long position in trit. If we could short it this way, it would mean that I could be fully liquid, with total NAV == wallet balance, and still, somehow, take a market position that benefits from trit going down.
Yeah you are right. A couple hours after my post, I was thinking about it, and it didn't make sense anymore.
I think a more accurate statement would be that ISK will be the equivalent of gold when stock markets crash. Most minerals are going to crash, especially low ends. It's debatable whether or not high ends will crash. High end supply will be dropping, but will the reduced supply outweigh the reduced demand? It will really come down to whether or not more ships are blowing up post-patch than pre-patch... which seems risky considering that insurance has made current-patch hulls essentially free.
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J'J'J'Jita
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Posted - 2010.04.06 07:16:00 -
[163]
Megacyte continues to climb - if one high end appears to be truly setting a new long-term base price, that's the one. Even non-Jita market hubs such as Amarr are being dragged up, which never happens for cases of simple market manipulation.
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Diomedes Calypso
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Posted - 2010.04.06 07:49:00 -
[164]
Edited by: Diomedes Calypso on 06/04/2010 07:49:58
Originally by: Clair Bear
Plenty of scc-lounge regulars saw this coming when someone first noticed changed insurance payouts. Most have long since liquidated their T1 mountains, and the more forward thinking even ejected their researched BS BPOs.
Here's the deal. There are MANY multi-account holders who would have to cancel their accounts when the miners and manufacturers can no longer produce at least 280M ISK/month. You don't need 10+ accounts to grind level 4s. 2 or 3 is enough, especially if you no longer need to loot.
Which means CCP will try to figure out some way to give miners purpose. But seeing how every previous effort at rebalancing has had more unintended than intended consequences... The big money will be in predicting the vast collateral damage.
My only prediction: major L4 mission hubs will see a drastic increase in population.
Thanks.. I got a lot from this..on a few levels
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SencneS
Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks
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Posted - 2010.04.06 15:13:00 -
[165]
Originally by: Clair Bear
My only prediction: major L4 mission hubs will see a drastic increase in population.
I agree with this prediction, but for other reasons. I truly believe that the changes to Drone space are going to "break" low-end minerals. This means it'll lower the price of Trit, Pyer, Mex, Nocx is already broken, Leaving the already shaky Isogen left.
My reason is pretty simple... Jump Freighters..
People in Drone space are already use to the idea of transporting your compounds back to highsec for tax free, perfect reprocessing. That's assuming they don't have that already at an outpost. Why would they bother changing this? People dislike change, since they already have established trade routes to and from Jita, simply changing the amounts of minerals per component (Nerfing high-end, buffing low-end) will have do exactly that in Jita.
There is no reason to build your stuff out in space when you already make weekly trips back and forth from Jita.
This along with my theory of them adjusting the compounds that get dropped per Drone, I'm speculating on a high-end's being HIGH Priced (Another reason CCP has manipulated for people to travel out in to 0.0/WH) and low-end being worthless to mine.
The side effect of this would be, people abandoning mining in high-sec, giving CCP an excuse to reduce/remove belts and implement the "Probed out Belts" they want to focus on to make Macro's jobs next to impossible without a lot of pre-activity. This would indeed make Missioning in high-sec the primary source of income... Oh but what... what's this I hear, Moving lvl 4s to Low-sec!! Something else CCP are thinking of doing in order to get people out of high-sec..
Video Related
Amarr for Life |
Lori Salvadoria
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Posted - 2010.04.06 20:54:00 -
[166]
Originally by: J'J'J'Jita
Megacyte continues to climb - if one high end appears to be truly setting a new long-term base price, that's the one. Even non-Jita market hubs such as Amarr are being dragged up, which never happens for cases of simple market manipulation.
That's because a lot of people took the opportunity to haul from other region sell orders to Jita, and earn a quick buck.
I was one of them. *Cuddles with the quick buck.*
What's more interesting, is that Megacyte still managed to recover from that, after the sudden immense influx of Megacyte into Jita, and is now climbing again.
Expect Megacyte to continue to go up.
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar
Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2010.04.06 21:27:00 -
[167]
Originally by: Lori Salvadoria
Originally by: J'J'J'Jita
Megacyte continues to climb - if one high end appears to be truly setting a new long-term base price, that's the one. Even non-Jita market hubs such as Amarr are being dragged up, which never happens for cases of simple market manipulation.
That's because a lot of people took the opportunity to haul from other region sell orders to Jita, and earn a quick buck.
I was one of them. *Cuddles with the quick buck.*
What's more interesting, is that Megacyte still managed to recover from that, after the sudden immense influx of Megacyte into Jita, and is now climbing again.
Expect Megacyte to continue to go up.
Hmm, late 3rd or early 5th Elliot Wave? In any case, there's people bound to witness and be ***chslapidated by wave "a".
-
Auditing & consulting
When looking for investors, please read
http://tinyurl.com/n5ys4h + http://tinyurl.com/lrg4oz
|
My Postman
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Posted - 2010.04.07 12:06:00 -
[168]
As my main is miner/producer/missionrunner i feel i have to give my two cents.
Returning from Wormhole 3 months ago, where mining was pretty easy mode. When ABCM ore went down so much i saw no reason for spamming the directional every 15 sec. Anyway, this was the main reason for leaving WH (since this time, seeing directional open i feel like murdering someone), and logistics was a pain in the a**.
So what, i thought, lets see what to make when mining the "proper" high sec ore, and it didŠnt turn out too bad, as logistics is easy, and what you "loose" while mining low end ore you can easily make producing, with no hauling pain.
And what ive seen in high sec belts, other people mining veld, worth next to nothing while pye is high, i couldŠnt beleve. I was wondering if those are macroers or just dumb.
Anyway this must be a reason of oversupply of trit as well.
Prices in my region are slightly beginning to go down as well on trit, pye and mex (gallente space) and i think a lot of the oversupply is because miners getting rid of their stockpiles of low end ore (like me).
So i assume to have all low ends sold by beginning of may which causes a shutdown of production lines as well for some time but my sentry domi is ready for grinding L4Šs again.
But what will a dedicated miner do, not having any gunnery skills, starting doing L1 missions? Or moving to 0.0 with his hulk which is the only ship he can fly properly, completely depending on "good will" of his new 0.0 corps. Going to low sec for a suicide?
What will happen to "miner alts" when they canŠt afford the plex anymore?
As the community is clear about what will happen to low end ores iŠm not quite sure what will happen to those players. Mass whining on forums anyway, but i doubt there will be a mass exodus to nullsec. This would not be "carebearlike". So will there be a mass emo-rage quitting from high sec miners? This can not be the intention of CCP, and not losing the minerŠs alts either.
To get rid of those macroers is a good thing, and when the macro canŠt bring in the plex itŠs useless, but who knows where the "borderline" for a 23/7 macro RMT Trader isk wise is?
So there are a lot of questions and all i (we) can hope is that the patch will do well.
Thanks for reading.
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Rodarine
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Posted - 2010.04.07 17:18:00 -
[169]
Mega is high because there are enough peopel who believe the hype inthe forums that the high end stuff will be a good long term investment, you only need 4 or 5 people reading that to cause enough competition to get the prices ridiculously high. So while it might not be short term manipulation, it is probably some sort of mental manipulation by fooling people into 'investing' in mega right now and thus competing against each other, and causing a tertiary reaction from everyone. (making them think that someone knows 'something') and maybe making them either try and buy up shorter buy orders, or maybe hold mega themselves, or a combination fo these and other things.
I watched mega go from about 2450 in Dodixie to 2900 BUY orders the other day. it is now "down' to 2860. But there is more than just trying to think of a long term investement when peopel are paying that much for something, especially when there were ample supplies around at 2100 less than a week ago. So basically they were putting buy order up for 50% more than what they could have bought all they wanted to buy 10 days ago. Guys were delivering bulk for 2050. All because of a little speculation and a lot of hype, and the fact that 4 or 5 guys started competing in a station for it.
But it is a good case study in how people reactand what they will do when greed sets in. But more than likely it will end up biting them in the ass. because eventually they will have to sell it or put it in something and sell that at more than what they paid for it. Will mega hit and stay at 3K a unit? Or be equal to 3K a unit in some product? I somehoe doubt it. Unles the hype machine goes overboard again after the changes and they can convince people to keep on buying that stuff. that way all the guys who bought this time around can dump in on those guys. And let them worry about wha they are going to do with it.
But it is the same old principle. Sell for more than you paid.
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sinqlaison
Amarr
Capital Builders Inc.
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Posted - 2010.04.07 18:48:00 -
[170]
Good news is that JITA prices are TANKING big time:
- iso down 54,x to 52,x
- mex down 30,x to 28,x
- nocx down 88,x to 83,x
- pye down 7,3x to 7,0x
- trit down 2,93 to 2,80
So, get out if you still can, mega and zyd are next in line after the speculators lost their shirts
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Capt Fossil
Gallente
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Posted - 2010.04.07 19:20:00 -
[171]
Originally by: sinqlaison
Good news is that JITA prices are TANKING big time:
- iso down 54,x to 52,x
- mex down 30,x to 28,x
- nocx down 88,x to 83,x
- pye down 7,3x to 7,0x
- trit down 2,93 to 2,80
So, get out if you still can, mega and zyd are next in line after the speculators lost their shirts
This is also an indicator of just how BIG an impact Insurance fraud is, IMO. Huge amounts of minerals that were being consumed are sitting in inventories. Oh and Zydrine is already down 10% over the last day or two.
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Aeneidae
Caldari
Perkone
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Posted - 2010.04.07 19:22:00 -
[172]
Originally by: sinqlaison
Good news is that JITA prices are TANKING big time:
- iso down 54,x to 52,x
- mex down 30,x to 28,x
- nocx down 88,x to 83,x
- pye down 7,3x to 7,0x
- trit down 2,93 to 2,80
Which is wonderful news. My production lines are affected mainly by Trit, Pye and Mex so Zydrine and Mega going up doesn't affect me much (at least now, on short term).
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Rodarine
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Posted - 2010.04.07 20:39:00 -
[173]
Originally by: Aeneidae
Originally by: sinqlaison
Good news is that JITA prices are TANKING big time:
- iso down 54,x to 52,x
- mex down 30,x to 28,x
- nocx down 88,x to 83,x
- pye down 7,3x to 7,0x
- trit down 2,93 to 2,80
Which is wonderful news. My production lines are affected mainly by Trit, Pye and Mex so Zydrine and Mega going up doesn't affect me much (at least now, on short term).
Might seem like it now but with all these prices dropping it means people arent using them, you might be, but without people buying it it wont be long before you are out of cash and sitting on things that no one wants to buy, or can buy cheaper elsewhere. Also peopel are more apt to spend alittlemore if they know they are making alitle more, and have a pretty reliable source of income.
It is awesome how people automatically think that lower prices means more profits for them. When in fact it is irrelevant. people will pay whatever. But if they dont have any money they wont pay anything.
So with one group of builders who were supplying cash for a whole array of people all stop doing what they did to make ISK< that means all those people they were supporting will need to look elsewhere to find ISK. Because the builders arent getting that cash they were bfore.
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Celia Therone
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Posted - 2010.04.07 22:57:00 -
[174]
Originally by: J'J'J'Jita
Megacyte continues to climb - if one high end appears to be truly setting a new long-term base price, that's the one. Even non-Jita market hubs such as Amarr are being dragged up, which never happens for cases of simple market manipulation.
I have to say that I don't get this at all. The new null sec industry pretty much forces miners to mine to keep their access to high grade ores. Wormholes have also increased access to the high ends. Together this seems like it would cause huge long term downward pressure on the high ends, especially zydrine and megacyte. (If CCP tweak the industry decay rate to be kinder, this could make a big difference.)
Furthermore if the low ends really do crash hard then at least a few of those multi-boxing low ends will make the move to wormholes or null sec (although I think a lot will mothball their alt accounts, perhaps just leaving them as non-paying research alts) which will put even more downward pressure on megacyte.
There might be some upward movement on Nocxium, but it could well be that the general downward pressure on the mineral basket overwhelms it and it just falls less than the rest.
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Shar Tegral
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Posted - 2010.04.07 23:35:00 -
[175]
There are dozens of rationales fueling the speculators. Which ones are right, only patch day will tell.
Wealth, howsoever got, in Eve makes
Lords of morons and gentlemen of thieves;
Aptitude and intellect are needless here;
'Tis impudence and money that grants fame. |
Jerid Verges
Gallente
The Society of Innovation
The Last Stand
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Posted - 2010.04.08 04:29:00 -
[176]
Edited by: Jerid Verges on 08/04/2010 04:29:34
What if CCP increased the mineral requirements to produce ships? Couldn't they do that to balance against mineral market oversupply?
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Alain Kinsella
Minmatar
On the Rocks
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Posted - 2010.04.08 05:34:00 -
[177]
From what I've seen in various areas, they're moving to ice belts in empire. Same Exhumer skill gets you Mackinaw bonus (just train the ice mining skill if you've not already), or just create a rather good AFK ice mining Hulk.
Also, I don't like having a character with no 'fallback' profession. So my missioner just recently got access to a ice-mining retriever, and I can mission L3 and maybe L4 if needed (though long-term I'd like to head toward Orca and Rorqual).
--A_K
Originally by: My Postman
But what will a dedicated miner do, not having any gunnery skills, starting doing L1 missions? Or moving to 0.0 with his hulk which is the only ship he can fly properly, completely depending on "good will" of his new 0.0 corps. Going to low sec for a suicide?
What will happen to "miner alts" when they canŠt afford the plex anymore?
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Alice Celadon
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Posted - 2010.04.08 05:57:00 -
[178]
I predict low end minerals are all going up about 50% a few months after Tyrannis hits and will rise from there. It has nothing to do with loot drops or build requirements or anything of the kind.
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Aeneidae
Caldari
Perkone
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Posted - 2010.04.08 06:49:00 -
[179]
Originally by: Rodarine
Might seem like it now but with all these prices dropping it means people arent using them, you might be, but without people buying it it wont be long before you are out of cash and sitting on things that no one wants to buy, or can buy cheaper elsewhere. Also peopel are more apt to spend alittlemore if they know they are making alitle more, and have a pretty reliable source of income.
I buy my minerals in JITA. I produce stuff that is easily in the top 10 of most used ships/modules in EVE at the moment. I understand what you're saying, however it's actually a very low risk of me going out of business (which is irrelevant anyway as my production character is also my Marauder missioneer.
Quote:
It is awesome how people automatically think that lower prices means more profits for them. When in fact it is irrelevant. people will pay whatever. But if they dont have any money they wont pay anything.
Actually, i wasn't referring to me making bigger profits. I was referring strictly to me not having diminished profits due to Zyd and Mega going up.
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Shar Tegral
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Posted - 2010.04.08 07:01:00 -
[180]
Edited by: Shar Tegral on 08/04/2010 07:02:16
Originally by: Rodarine
It is awesome how people automatically think that lower prices means more profits for them. When in fact it is irrelevant. people will pay whatever. But if they dont have any money they wont pay anything.
For myself, I read this I thought, "awesome, another person who doesn't know what I know." Lower prices does mean more profits for me. Last year, I bought several million units of fullerides at 250 isk per unit. I bought so much because I believed the price had bottomed and I use a lot of it in my production cycles. Imagine my surprise when I come back after a 6 month vacation and prices are 1000 - 1200 per unit. I may factor the price for my products at 1000 isk per unit (heck I even sold off several millions straight to the market) but it still only cost me 250 isk per unit. Guess what: That's enough profit for me. So, as things bottom out today I will buy up plenty of it thinking about my production needs tomorrow, next week, next month, and next year. Between us, you and I, it is likely only one of us will profit sense you don't seem to factor in anything other than today. This is what ITSAssassin would like to hide.
Wealth, howsoever got, in Eve makes
Lords of morons and gentlemen of thieves;
Aptitude and intellect are needless here;
'Tis impudence and money that grants fame. |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar
Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2010.04.08 08:03:00 -
[181]
Quote:
I have to say that I don't get this at all.
You are in THE giant free ad space played by those who are manipulating the prices, and you don't get how they are playing you?
I mean, re-read the past posts in this thread, along with "true" attempts at speculating price changes, there are blatant "X is rising / crashing all act NOW" to social engineer you into dropping your pants.
Quote:
Between us, you and I, it is likely only one of us will profit sense you don't seem to factor in anything other than today.
You are implementing a sort of trend following strategy. It works. After a while, and require foresight and not a "GIMME ALL NAO" mentality, but they work indeed.
-
Auditing & consulting
When looking for investors, please read
http://tinyurl.com/n5ys4h + http://tinyurl.com/lrg4oz
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My Postman
|
Posted - 2010.04.08 10:58:00 -
[182]
Originally by: Alice Celadon
I predict low end minerals are all going up about 50% a few months after Tyrannis hits and will rise from there. It has nothing to do with loot drops or build requirements or anything of the kind.
Can you please elaborate on this statement why, when 99 % of the community (including me) thinks, that low end ore will "rock bottom"?
Or did i miss your point in the previous 6 pages?
Thank you!
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Lori Salvadoria
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Posted - 2010.04.08 12:09:00 -
[183]
Because oversupplies have stacked up over time.
Of course low end minerals will drop at a beginning, when a lot of insurance fraud builders try to dump their mineral stocks. What we're seeing now with the low end minerals might be the start of that.
But once those excesses of low end minerals have been cleaned out (which they will, eventually), the changes that looks to be on the horizon (in particular m0 loot drops), give an indication that the mineral supply will go down more so than the production demand will.
Mineral prices going up a few months after the release of Tyrannis, is a quite just and reasonable prediction. Though it's anything but certain.
Increased mineral prices would also fall in line with CCP's proclaimed intention of making mining worthwhile.
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Shar Tegral
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Posted - 2010.04.08 13:29:00 -
[184]
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
You are implementing a sort of trend following strategy. It works. After a while, and require foresight and not a "GIMME ALL NAO" mentality, but they work indeed.
Well I described it the long way for people who are not familiar with such methods. And yes, it works. I find that calm patience serves me well in both carebear and pvp areas alike. Keeping calm won't have you always winning. But if you let yourself get frazzled, you guarantee your loss(es). This is what ITSAssassin would like to hide.
Wealth, howsoever got, in Eve makes
Lords of morons and gentlemen of thieves;
Aptitude and intellect are needless here;
'Tis impudence and money that grants fame. |
SencneS
Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks
|
Posted - 2010.04.08 14:23:00 -
[185]
Edited by: SencneS on 08/04/2010 14:25:42
Originally by: My Postman
Originally by: Alice Celadon
I predict low end minerals are all going up about 50% a few months after Tyrannis hits and will rise from there. It has nothing to do with loot drops or build requirements or anything of the kind.
Can you please elaborate on this statement why, when 99 % of the community (including me) thinks, that low end ore will "rock bottom"?
Or did i miss your point in the previous 6 pages?
Thank you!
Not the first time Alice Celadon has gone against logic and the collective "group think" of MD. I guess he'll be right one day and I'm sure we'll all hear about it
Several of the real nail hitters in past speculation have all said low-ends are diving. I believe this and I've been close and spot on in a few speculations before, some are even documented on MD.
The main cause of the drive is because they are adding low-ends to drone components. CCP are removing T1 from loot drops because they don't want Trit to be valued at 0.01 ISK. This is an indication they believe low-ends are currently OVERSUPPLIED. When you're adding a supply source you have to take away another unless there is a shortage. And evidence as to low-end shortage is very much lacking.
While I'm open to suggestions I doubt anyone can come up with any real plausible speculation as to why low-end minerals will climb in value.
Amarr for Life |
Diomedes Calypso
|
Posted - 2010.04.08 17:12:00 -
[186]
Senc
I agree with you mostly and fear an across the board deflation . (diminished demand for so many items even beyond ore tied up with the production capacity employed in the Sale of ships to NPC's via insuance eliminated, great net reduction of a major isk faucet that the markets are accustumed to having in circulation, partial switch of purely isk focussed power miners (especially rmt?S) towards missions which might collapse named items values if previously scarce items become even a little more common.)
Playing devils advocate though, Alice seems to think that the expansion will immediately close some isk sinks by allowing player production of currently Npc seeded items which would counter the money supply concerns and also give an entirely new isk creation opportunities for all of those suddenly out of work people previously tied to the blow-up industry.
On an entirely different meta level, guys that fancy them selves industrialists and like to nerd otu in the produciton schemes will souddenly have a whole new box of toys to play with. The FUN motivation of tryign something new might leed quite a chunk of the people running the most oiled mining machines to suddenly be distracted stop mining and start spending their play time exploring planets.
Will it be enough to keep low ends from falling ? I don't know, but it will have at least some impact on the supply equation that I hadn't thought of.
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Frunia
|
Posted - 2010.04.08 18:20:00 -
[187]
It seems that skyrocketing mega has started to correct itself and rebounds from the psychological 2900 ISK barrier. Predictions where will it end now?
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Alice Celadon
|
Posted - 2010.04.08 21:22:00 -
[188]
Originally by: Lori Salvadoria
Mineral prices going up a few months after the release of Tyrannis, is a quite just and reasonable prediction. Though it's anything but certain.
I almost want to start a new thread entitled "You're all wrong and completely missing the point of the most significant change CCP will ever make to the economy."
Tell you what, I'll do just that.
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My Postman
|
Posted - 2010.04.09 12:09:00 -
[189]
Ok Alice, i worked through all your elaboration of the impact of PI, but again all there is a statement of yours that low end ores will rise, but in no way WHY they should.
As the dev blog states clearly that PI will have nothing to do with "mining" existing "ores" or "minerals", beside the fact that low ends will be added to drone compounds massively, again i donŠt see your point, why they shoud go up.
Saing that, your elaborate includes no facts, just insulting MD community as blah blahfng idiots, trying to make my e-peen-ometer explode when typing "Alice".
But, if all happens like you assume, and i doubt, you can read my apologies here in July.
Nothing personal, feeling just
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Rodarine
|
Posted - 2010.04.09 16:00:00 -
[190]
Originally by: Shar Tegral
Edited by: Shar Tegral on 08/04/2010 07:02:16
Originally by: Rodarine
It is awesome how people automatically think that lower prices means more profits for them. When in fact it is irrelevant. people will pay whatever. But if they dont have any money they wont pay anything.
For myself, I read this I thought, "awesome, another person who doesn't know what I know." Lower prices does mean more profits for me. Last year, I bought several million units of fullerides at 250 isk per unit. I bought so much because I believed the price had bottomed and I use a lot of it in my production cycles. Imagine my surprise when I come back after a 6 month vacation and prices are 1000 - 1200 per unit. I may factor the price for my products at 1000 isk per unit (heck I even sold off several millions straight to the market) but it still only cost me 250 isk per unit. Guess what: That's enough profit for me. So, as things bottom out today I will buy up plenty of it thinking about my production needs tomorrow, next week, next month, and next year. Between us, you and I, it is likely only one of us will profit sense you don't seem to factor in anything other than today. This is what ITSAssassin would like to hide.
So taking 6 months off from the game and havign them change something in the game that artificially made what you had bought 6 months prior makes it a valid argument?
But that is pretty much whatI said. If the changes go into effect as is, the sub numbers will more than likely drop at least 25% if not more simply because people will find they dont have anything to do. So fast forward 6 months or more and if they make changes to make it better then there mightbe more people.
But claiming that 6 months game time is a valid reason as to why something 'works" isn't a very good argument. especially when the game/market probably didnt correct itself but some change to the game mechanic was changed which more thanlikely caused the prices of the minerals those things were made with to rise, thus making their refine values higher.
And that is again something people arent realizing. Prices arent determined by anything other than refine values for about 90% of the stuff in this game. Your tech II & III stuff and rare mission drop stuff makes up a remainder of the other, and the isurance price of ships fills in the gaps. Well the insurance determiner is going to be eliminated. So then it will come down to refine value mostly determining it.
SO I guess the best thing for everyone to do is empty their wallets and buy a bunch of crap that they think has bottomed out in price and then come Christmas log back in to see if the game is worth playing again? Somehow I dont think that is what CCP has in mind.
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Alice Celadon
|
Posted - 2010.04.09 19:40:00 -
[191]
Originally by: My Postman
I hates the Alice.
In short I'm predicting that PI replaces hisec mining as a more engaging and even less risky venture AND [and this is key] significantly increases the spending power of all the poor schlubs in eve.
It's fine to think I'm wrong. I probably am.
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Snabbik Shigen
|
Posted - 2010.04.09 20:05:00 -
[192]
Originally by: sinqlaison
Good news is that JITA prices are TANKING big time:
- iso down 54,x to 52,x
- mex down 30,x to 28,x
- nocx down 88,x to 83,x
- pye down 7,3x to 7,0x
- trit down 2,93 to 2,80
So, get out if you still can, mega and zyd are next in line after the speculators lost their shirts
Those price changes are actually closer to the recent prices in the outlying hi-sec areas. Jita was a bit of a market bubble the past month with higher prices.
(Prices are slipping a bit in the outlying hi-sec regions, but not a lot. There's also a ton of speculation in Mega/Morph/Zyd prices.)
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Kerfira
Audaces Fortuna Iuvat
|
Posted - 2010.04.10 08:39:00 -
[193]
If anyone should be interested, this is the spread of minerals I've gotten from L4 mission loot in Caldari space over 142 mission.
Note that this does include drone goo from drone missions.
Tritanium: 51,794,766
Pyerite: 19,741,231
Mexallon: 5,508,267
Isogen: 1,332,590
Nocxium: 330,960
Zydrine: 35,913
Megacyte: 19,805
Morphite: 382
Might be useful.... Then on the other hand, it might not... 
Originally by: CCP Wrangler
EVE isn't designed to just look like a cold, dark and harsh world, it's designed to be a cold, dark and harsh world.
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Venkul Mul
Gallente
|
Posted - 2010.04.10 10:55:00 -
[194]
Edited by: Venkul Mul on 10/04/2010 11:00:11
Originally by: SencneS
Edited by: SencneS on 08/04/2010 14:25:42
Originally by: My Postman
Originally by: Alice Celadon
I predict low end minerals are all going up about 50% a few months after Tyrannis hits and will rise from there. It has nothing to do with loot drops or build requirements or anything of the kind.
Can you please elaborate on this statement why, when 99 % of the community (including me) thinks, that low end ore will "rock bottom"?
Or did i miss your point in the previous 6 pages?
Thank you!
Not the first time Alice Celadon has gone against logic and the collective "group think" of MD. I guess he'll be right one day and I'm sure we'll all hear about it
Several of the real nail hitters in past speculation have all said low-ends are diving. I believe this and I've been close and spot on in a few speculations before, some are even documented on MD.
The main cause of the drive is because they are adding low-ends to drone components. CCP are removing T1 from loot drops because they don't want Trit to be valued at 0.01 ISK. This is an indication they believe low-ends are currently OVERSUPPLIED. When you're adding a supply source you have to take away another unless there is a shortage. And evidence as to low-end shortage is very much lacking.
While I'm open to suggestions I doubt anyone can come up with any real plausible speculation as to why low-end minerals will climb in value.
We don't really know what modules will be removed/nerfed, but my impression is that the first to go will be the large guns. They are tritanium rick modules so it is possible that the % of tritanium removed from reprocessing will be higher that of other low end minerals.
At the same time (from the Dev blog) the total composition of drone loot will move toward mirroring the percentages used in ship composition.
Without any hard data is hard to guess, but I will not be surprised by a stability or even slight increase in tritanium price while most of the other minerals will be tanking.
Genera increase in low end? no.
Possible small increase in tritanium price? yes.
Originally by: Diomedes Calypso
Playing devils advocate though, Alice seems to think that the expansion will immediately close some isk sinks by allowing player production of currently Npc seeded items which would counter the money supply concerns and also give an entirely new isk creation opportunities for all of those suddenly out of work people previously tied to the blow-up industry.
I think the NPC sell orders (and so the isk sink) will stay up at least a month, if not more.
Setting up the production chains for the materials will require time and no one know when there will be enough production to cover POS and T2 production requirements.
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Stafen
Killer Koalas
|
Posted - 2010.04.10 20:08:00 -
[195]
Originally by: Kerfira
If anyone should be interested, this is the spread of minerals I've gotten from L4 mission loot in Caldari space over 142 mission.
Note that this does include drone goo from drone missions.
Tritanium: 51,794,766
Pyerite: 19,741,231
Mexallon: 5,508,267
Isogen: 1,332,590
Nocxium: 330,960
Zydrine: 35,913
Megacyte: 19,805
Morphite: 382
Might be useful.... Then on the other hand, it might not...
I was bored waiting for pew pew so I put the numbers in excel.
I weighted each material against rough production usage 1:4:16:...
and then found how high each mineral was against the average.
That should show how much mission loot gets produced above build requirements (<1 is not enough, >1 too much):
Tritanium0.72
Pyerite1.09
Mexallon1.22
Isogen1.18
Nocxium1.17
Zydrine0.51
Megacyte1.12
So mission loot is overproducing Mexallon,Isogen,Nocxium and Megacyte. So the prices of these might rise after the changes.
While Trit and Zydrine was being under supplied.
The adjustments due to selective mining must be taken into account (like mining veldspar in high sec) and also the drone region ratting (but that is mainly plush and glossy so can also be calculated)
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Raiment Epoch
|
Posted - 2010.04.11 05:36:00 -
[196]
what about morphite? It is the forgotten mineral when the basket is described. Speculation has already driven it pretty high, not quite to pre-dominion levels (dominion reduced amount required for t2 production unless I'm mistaken) trading on about double volume. Since it is involved with t2 production and not t1 it should have a different fate than the rest of the mineral basket? The insurance changes seem like they might even increase t2 demand which would be super good.
I've bought a little bit to hoard till the patch.
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Kerfira
Audaces Fortuna Iuvat
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Posted - 2010.04.11 10:21:00 -
[197]
Edited by: Kerfira on 11/04/2010 10:21:23
Originally by: Raiment Epoch
what about morphite? It is the forgotten mineral when the basket is described.
No, Morphite is just not part OF the basket! The basket is defined by the average mineral amounts used to built a T1 ship (mainly Battleships), which uses no Morphite.
Originally by: CCP Wrangler
EVE isn't designed to just look like a cold, dark and harsh world, it's designed to be a cold, dark and harsh world.
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Raiment Epoch
|
Posted - 2010.04.11 17:34:00 -
[198]
Originally by: Kerfira
Morphite is just not part OF the basket! The basket is defined by the average mineral amounts used to built a T1 ship (mainly Battleships), which uses no Morphite.
the current basket price is limited by IER of t1 ships so morphite isn't a part of it. However I was talking about the basket post-patch. Many people are making predictions on the basket, it will go down...it will go up. But I am predicting it will switch to a more miner based supply. Which means morphite as a mined mineral must change in price to match the new opportunity cost of mining other things. Also insurance changes have very little impact on morphite demand.
I think morphite should be considered part of the mineral basket post-patch
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Breaker77
Gallente
Reclamation Industries
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Posted - 2010.04.11 21:07:00 -
[199]
Originally by: Raiment Epoch
But I am predicting it will switch to a more miner based supply. Which means morphite as a mined mineral must change in price to match the new opportunity cost of mining other things. Also insurance changes have very little impact on morphite demand.
Mercoxit is easily found in WH space, even C1 systems. If the price starts getting to high again then more people will just start going to WH space to mine it.
Also insurance changes will have an impact on Morphite demand. If T2 insurance payouts increase then more people could start using T2 in PvP. If more people lose T2 ships then the demand will increase to replace those ships.
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