Navy Vexor already skyrocketed (at least in Dodixie).

I'm telling you guys. Turbo Encabulators.

Mark my rectangles.

You're sometimes better going for meta 4 turbo encabulators over the tech II as even though you get less power from the meta 4 it still has less side buffeting in the cynosaural field stabilisation range. How far will the price rise on Turbo Encabulators? No one knows, We however do know this, high sec carebears will still buy them at any price to run level 4''s.

I'll start with what I THINK. Hurf durf bunch of speculations.
Mis-direction or fact you decide.

Succubi & Phantasms. Guaranteed Pirate Cruisers are next up on the re balance schedule.

I sunk 125b into patch speculation already.

The target has yet to be mentioned in the thread.

Think I can guess.

Hint: it's a type of ship.

Nope!

Guidance System?????

im thinking new minerals being hinted at will certainly cause a commotion, if these vague rumors are true.

would like pledge 20b

Nope!

Nope!

Amongst other items of note, there was that certain BUY order in Jita for about 8-9 days involving a very generous price for at least 5 million units of a certain material.

posting to state the obvious.

anyone who didn't buy mountains of navy and pirate ships as soon as the first wave of t1 re balances was done over a year ago should not post in this forum ever again. the time to buy was in the last 2 gallente cashouts before the fw nerf... the way things are going now im expecting at least a 800% return in investment

any advice to buy navy ships, bpcs, or tags is completely moot now.... people have been doing it for over a year. im myself sitting on a few thousand navy ships, well over 2k navy vexors, and yeah i over did it there... but the fw people were using them as throwaway ships... i couldn't help it. all i did was set up buy orders in lowsec hubs and i moved my crap when a system was in lockdown, even safer than buying in highsec.

this is my first massive scale investment and im sure some treasurer from a certain lolsec alliance will claim he has over done me a thousand times over... but i don't care. :D


i mean seriously, if you didn't see it coming years ago, you should go back to that other game whose name we don't mention.

posting to state the obvious.

anyone who didn't buy mountains of navy and pirate ships as soon as the first wave of t1 re balances was done over a year ago should not post in this forum ever again. the time to buy was in the last 2 gallente cashouts before the fw nerf... the way things are going now im expecting at least a 800% return in investment

any advice to buy navy ships, bpcs, or tags is completely moot now.... people have been doing it for over a year. im myself sitting on a few thousand navy ships, well over 2k navy vexors, and yeah i over did it there... but the fw people were using them as throwaway ships... i couldn't help it. all i did was set up buy orders in lowsec hubs and i moved my crap when a system was in lockdown, even safer than buying in highsec.

this is my first massive scale investment and im sure some treasurer from a certain lolsec alliance will claim he has over done me a thousand times over... but i don't care. :D


i mean seriously, if you didn't see it coming years ago, you should go back to that other game whose name we don't mention.

Soundwave talked quite a bit about how he'd like ice to matter more in the dev video cast today.

e: People look to be moving on BS tiericide speculation too. Nocx and zyd are the canaries...

People look to be moving on BS tiericide speculation too.

He wants ice to be more like oil, where the flow is controlled by few, and fought over. Though, from the discussion it appeared unlikely that (these) ice changes will make it to this patch. Nevertheless, best to stock up on ice and related products asap.

What changes do you think they will do to ice that makes some people certain of its increase? If you removed it from high sec that would make it way more expensive, but I highly doubt that would happen... they buffed exhumers enough that they are very difficult to gank now, almost promoting semi-afk ice mining in high sec. I don't see why they would work against that.

Already inflated on account of the navy cruiser buffs, so they'd be a risky buy.

Well it hasnt stopped someone doubling their price in Amarr already.

Still touting Caldari Vice Admiral insignia as a zero risk investment due to NPC infinite buy order price of 500K. They used to sell for 5m isk a peice but now due to FW Gallente farming they are only 550k.

My bet is on CCP fixing FW soon as they will get fed up with 95/100 people joining Gallente just because they are winning so they can farm, when that happens vice admirals will sky rocket particularly if new LP data base changes come true.

A few thoughts..

There is a lot of positive to say about the game aspect of patch and expansion speculation, but is it not growing a bit out of proportions?

I am starting to wonder how much eve forum speculation threads are potentially making insider like trading possible.
Now before I get flamed for saying this.. bots, automations, afk etc are all getting discussed frequently and with a lot of passion from those that feel they suffer from its balance issues..

How come there have been so little attention paid to the potential of creative use of insider knowledge, based on the way information is released?

The recent PAX slides was what made me question this a bit more then I used to. I think most of how things have been released works pretty fine all things considered, but this one was kinda different.

Releasing any type of information about upcoming game changes must be available to all of EVE, or it trends towards insider information sharing. Sure EVE players spread the information pretty fast, but is there not a need for some procedural "rules" when disclosing these things?

I think it would be nice to get CSM to actively get a statement and discussion on this, because already there is no way to really control the so called non written parts of information, neither source nor flow..

I am mainly bringing this up because speculation aspects seems to become a bigger and bigger part of patch/expansion economy.. It would be interesting to have access to or information about the hitory of how these positionings have grown?

A few thoughts..

There is a lot of positive to say about the game aspect of patch and expansion speculation, but is it not growing a bit out of proportions?

I am starting to wonder how much eve forum speculation threads are potentially making insider like trading possible.
Now before I get flamed for saying this.. bots, automations, afk etc are all getting discussed frequently and with a lot of passion from those that feel they suffer from its balance issues..

How come there have been so little attention paid to the potential of creative use of insider knowledge, based on the way information is released?

The recent PAX slides was what made me question this a bit more then I used to. I think most of how things have been released works pretty fine all things considered, but this one was kinda different.

Releasing any type of information about upcoming game changes must be available to all of EVE, or it trends towards insider information sharing. Sure EVE players spread the information pretty fast, but is there not a need for some procedural "rules" when disclosing these things?

I think it would be nice to get CSM to actively get a statement and discussion on this, because already there is no way to really control the so called non written parts of information, neither source nor flow..

I am mainly bringing this up because speculation aspects seems to become a bigger and bigger part of patch/expansion economy.. It would be interesting to have access to or information about the hitory of how these positionings have grown?

As an aside: what checks and balances are there on CSM to ensure that they do not use their insider knowledge for financial gains? What prevents them for giving a friend a tip, or from using an alt to speculate?

With respect to alts, at least, do you really think that CCP can't figure out your alts on a whim? I'll grant that I did not go to great lengths (read: no measures taken) to hide them, but they certainly knew about all of my accounts during their investigation into the FW thing.

I'm not really sure about the "tip to a friend" thing though. But if I had to guess, they'd probably keep an eye out for large purchases of relevant items and if they do notice one, investigate from there.

In the game, every player, to an extent, has equal opportunities and access to information about the economy. Unfortunately, due to multiple (some obscure) sources of information out-of-game, access to information for speculation does not follow suit. I may be asking for too much (equal access to game changes info), and probably the skills to acquire this information is one of the prerequisites for speculation.

Everyone does have equal access to game change info, though. Dev blogs and the test server are public, and serve as confirmation. At that point, it's not really "speculation" anymore, to be perfectly frank. It's more like a foot race to see who can get to the market first.

From what im hearing, certain caugh minerals are the focus post patch.

Everyone does have equal access to game change info, though...It's more like a foot race to see who can get to the market first.

Nocx and zyd are the canaries...

Exactly. As a small player you sometimes get lucky timing and you sometimes don't. A consolidated and controlled source would likely mean I never got lucky at all!

Anyway, this is EVE. Why would you expect ANYTHING to be fair? Markets are still a game mechanic regardless of any similarity to RL counterparts. And that's great - we can play with strategies that an exchange regulator might take a decidedly dim view of.

Patch and no patch speculation (swing trading does not require a patch to achieve results) require in depth knowledge of the game and / or knowledge of price reading and is done when the other traders don't even imagine what the hot items could be.

QFT

These are the guys I envy :)

You don't need to, you could always go the lazy way like I do and just do price reading.

After skilltree rebalance Iteron Mark V will only need Gallente industrial level I. Orca training time will be reduced from 49 to 17 days.

Maybe demand for those 2 ship types will rise.

Ice fields disappeared altogether on one test server build source

They are certainly toying with the idea, Soundwave wants to (he has siad as much on the public record).

So maybe Ice moves to Null or Exploration, POS fuel goes through the roof, all those hi-sec POSes doing invention get pricey to run, all Tech 2 goods become much more expensive just in time for the re-balancing of Tech 2 ships.

Sounds like a plan to me.

Ice fields disappeared altogether on one test server build source

They are certainly toying with the idea, Soundwave wants to (he has siad as much on the public record).

So maybe Ice moves to Null or Exploration, POS fuel goes through the roof, all those hi-sec POSes doing invention get pricey to run, all Tech 2 goods become much more expensive just in time for the re-balancing of Tech 2 ships.

Sounds like a plan to me.

Ice fields disappeared altogether on one test server build source

They are certainly toying with the idea, Soundwave wants to (he has siad as much on the public record).

So maybe Ice moves to Null or Exploration, POS fuel goes through the roof, all those hi-sec POSes doing invention get pricey to run, all Tech 2 goods become much more expensive just in time for the re-balancing of Tech 2 ships.

Sounds like a plan to me.

- T2 Ice Harvester Cycle halved from 500 to 250 seconds, presumably they are doubling ice harvesting rates to balance the difficulty of finding an ice field via exploration.

But you will have to find a belt first.....

But you will have to find a belt first.....

All that I know of that's in the public domain is this screenshot from a slideshow at PAX, when they were talking about Industry Rebalance.

http://i.imgur.com/F1sBVFf.jpg

It could imply Moon Minerals (on the right).

It could imply Ice (middle).

Or it could be none of the above.

introduction of player owned starbases could possibly send the prices who knows where.

http://imgur.com/a/c3oYb#10 came from Mynnna's post on top bty, but again, its all up in the sky right now, nothing confirmed as fact from what I understand

introduction of player owned starbases could possibly send the prices who knows where.

what do you think about cap rigs, the production prices are 4 times higher then large rigs:

http://games.chruker.dk/eve_online/item.php?type_id=30994
http://games.chruker.dk/eve_online/item.php?type_id=25895

i noticed the prices going up little, but not that much

cap rigs have always been on this website, it has been there for years. nothing new.

Well, except for CCP officially announcing they would be included in the next patch that is.
And the production prices are 5 times the large rig production price.

And my titan comes out like two days after the patch

where???? link plz

what do you think about cap rigs, the production prices are 4 times higher then large rigs:

http://games.chruker.dk/eve_online/item.php?type_id=30994
http://games.chruker.dk/eve_online/item.php?type_id=25895

i noticed the prices going up little, but not that much

New Decryptors, plus old ones renamed.

https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&m=2882636#post2882636

Pastebin looks to contain a new capital ship called 'Nation' too perhaps.

If Ice Fields have to be scanned, then it must mean they deplete.

Is there anything in Eve you have to scan, but after you find it, it stays there forever and never deplete?

If Ice Fields have to be scanned, then it must mean they deplete.

Is there anything in Eve you have to scan, but after you find it, it stays there forever and never deplete?

Ka-ching.

If Ice Fields have to be scanned, then it must mean they deplete.

Is there anything in Eve you have to scan, but after you find it, it stays there forever and never deplete?

Below is a list of the affected ore types, with the amount of minerals that they provide for each refine volume. Changes are in brackets.

Arkonor: 10000 Tritanium (+9700), 166 Zydrine, 333 Megacyte

Bistot: 12000 Pyerite (+11830), 341 Zydrine, 170 Megacyte

Crokite: 38000 Tritanium (+37669), 331 Nocxium, 663 Zydrine

Dark Ochre: 25500 Tritanium (+25250), 500 Nocxium, 250 Zydrine

Gneiss: 3700 Tritanium (+3529), 3700 Mexallon (+3529), 700 Isogen (+357), 171 Zydrine

Spodumain: 71000 Tritanium (+67810), 9000 Pyerite (+8590), 140 Megacyte

If Ice Fields have to be scanned, then it must mean they deplete.

Is there anything in Eve you have to scan, but after you find it, it stays there forever and never deplete?

http://community.eveonline.com/news/dev-blogs/resource-companion-blog/



Trit and pyer getting much much cheaper ?

That's almost a guarantee, although in the short term you should see prices bolstered somewhat by Tiericide, depending on the changes. A Tier 3 BS still costs ~160m at the low end (maelstrom) and ~200m at the high end (abaddon) even if (for example) trit drops to 4, pyerite to 8, mex to 45 and isogen to 90, with nocx, zyd and mega staying the same as they are now, so if current tier 1 and tier 2 prices are adjusted up to around tier 3 there's a lot of room to move, and people will be building lots of BS.

e: Wrote my deeper analysis, look for it on themittani.com tomorrow.

While this is true, I believe there is a reasonable chance that CCP will make a case for Battleships similar to battlecruisers, and will only bump tier 1 bs up to the level of tier 2, with the possibility of (a precedent) moving tier 3 down to tier 2, or leaving it where it is. This would see a much more neglible increase in value of investment, with the possibility of isk being lost, with enough of a mineral drop.

We should get more people mining ice as the value increases. Less people will mine veld, keeping the price of Trit up. At the end of the day, I would expect a balance between veld, pyroxies and ice in terms of isk per hour.

The amount of miners will probably decrease (by 33%?) due to people not being able to AFK ice mine.

Yea. 80% off all ice requirements are going to be seeded in hi-sec. Assuming they are fully mined, there will still be a big bottleneck.

I'm glad I bought a bunch of fuel a few weeks ago. I just spent another 4bn on ice for the hell of it, I'd imagine it would have to go up to a decent isk/hr rate now that it will be more or less the same as mining regular ore.

Even with the isotopes at 1000 isk p/u, you will only be pulling in 20m per hour mining ice. No point really, if you can not afk mine any more.

Have you factored the halving of the cycle time into your calculation?

"At our current numbers, the maximum supply of ice from highsec (assuming that each belt is mined out completely five times a day) would provide approximately 80% of the game's ice needs, ensuring that at least some of the ice mining must be undertaken in lower security space"

80% of ice assuming all the ice belts get mined out fully, within the first hour, from every hi-sec, ice holding system in eve.

If I understand it correctly, if you can do it fast enough you might get 6 belts:
1. 11:15 (After DT)
2. 15:55
3. 20:35
4. 1:15
5. 5:55
6. 10:35

True, but what is the likelihood of having all the belts completely mined out within 30 mins. Ice miners are the laziest people i know.
They generally point their lasers at a rock and go afk for 30 mins while watching tv. There is going to be a big reduction in the number of part-time ice miners, not to mention bots.

I dunno, I have a supply for my needs and then a little. I hope it spikes to 1000 and settles around 600. But I haven't really done any proper analysis.

Edit - I also, don't understand the distribution fully. I would imagine that the majority of the caldari towers are in hi-sec. If ice fields are distributed equally among the different faction space, then that may leave a shortfall in hi-sec white-glaze for hi-sec pos.

If I understand it correctly, if you can do it fast enough you might get 6 belts:
1. 11:15 (After DT)
2. 15:55
3. 20:35
4. 1:15
5. 5:55
6. 10:35

http://community.eveonline.com/news/dev-blogs/resource-companion-blog/



Trit and pyer getting much much cheaper ?

I have a gut feeling this is being done to keep people from wreaking havoc on ship prices like what happened to mining ships, (frigates recovered mostly) and the still mostly unprofitable cruisers.
also, im pretty sure this will make low/nulsec a little bit more attractive now.

Moon mat changes, I think that ones pretty obvious, large scale alliance warfare is dead, compared to what it was back when I started playing the game.

I knew tech was going to be the money maker, but I definitely didn't foresee it happening like this, it appears finished products and not advanced moon mats are the focus now.

Even with the isotopes at 1000 isk p/u, you will only be pulling in 20m per hour mining ice. No point really, if you can not afk mine any more.

Even with the isotopes at 1000 isk p/u, you will only be pulling in 20m per hour mining ice. No point really, if you can not afk mine any more.

[

Isotopes and ozone being at 1k result in racial ice products (in null) being closer to 50m/hr, with the non-racial stuff (eg Dark Glitter) going higher. It will be quite lucrative. And more to the point, the fact that the "if I can't AFK it it's not worth it" meme is even a thing is evidence of a fundamental wrongness in the game, which I am exceedingly happy to see them correct.

And more to the point, the fact that the "if I can't AFK it it's not worth it" meme is even a thing is evidence of a fundamental wrongness in the game, which I am exceedingly happy to see them correct.

Succubi & Phantasms. Guaranteed Pirate Cruisers are next up on the re balance schedule.

I've always said that Eve is designed to have an appeal to the entire spectrum of gameplay. From the ultra-extreme hardcore gamer to the ultra-relaxed casual player. If ice was appealing to the ultra-relaxed then Eve is big enough for that style of gameplay and whose anyone to say that their style of play isn't 'acceptable'.

yk

I have trouble defining "that style of gameplay" as actual gameplay, considering there's barely any actual interaction with the game. I'm equally skeptical of calling things like "afktar" ratting - that is, warping an Ishtar with sentries into an anomaly and going afk while your drones wipe out the anomaly - "gameplay" too, for the record, so this isn't just some sort of bias or crusade against highsec.

Casual gameplay, in my mind, means something a player who can only log in for a short period of time can undock and go and complete. The new exploration stuff is a great example of this. It's quick, interesting, probably is fairly rewarding, and most importantly, there's actual player/game engagement. You know, "gameplay".

Semantics.

World English Dictionary

game 1 (+íe+¬m) [Click for IPA pronunciation guide]

GÇö n
1. an amusement or pastime; diversion

All that is required.

An again. If you don't find it appealing, then don't do it. Duh. For those that otherwise liked the slow, lackadaisical minimalism that still allows them to login to the make-believe sci-fi fiction of Eve, then so be it.

What's your argument? That mining trit requires 3 button pushes every 5 minutes, so its 'gameplay', but mining ice requires 3 button pushes every 30 minutes so that is not? Completely arbitrary. Your not them and you can't dictate what they do or don't enjoy.

yk

I have trouble defining "that style of gameplay" as actual gameplay, considering there's barely any actual interaction with the game.

I'm not certain why this is such a point of contention for you. As Yuuknow pointed out it doesn't really effect you so why do you care? However, since that didn't put you off your attack I will make a single point.


CCP IS changing ice mining. Therefore your argument over it's current state is not only an entirely moot, but has nothing to do with the topic of this thread.

On the contrary, my argument regarding the current state of mining is extremely relevant, as CCP's changes - taking away the ability to do extremely low interaction "gameplay" all day long and replacing it with something that demands a higher level of interaction - demonstrates that they feel the same way.

Can't say that I read minds, but my impression was that the ice changes were less about eliminating afk'er and more about turning ice into the conflict-driver that it had the potential to become. Resource competition and economic incentive are generally good conflict-drivers, and the presence of an infinite/never-depleting rock that could be mined forever didn't have any contribution to the economic conflicts that help to make Eve interesting. Turning ice more into the Eve version of RL oil, and rightfully so, makes things more dynamic, which I think everyone would agree with.

But hopefully not because ccp wanted to suppress the game-style of some of its players which choose solo mine or afk miner play.

yk

Can't say that I read minds, but my impression was that the ice changes were less about eliminating afk'er and more about turning ice into the conflict-driver that it had the potential to become. Resource competition and economic incentive are generally good conflict-drivers, and the presence of an infinite/never-depleting rock that could be mined forever didn't have any contribution to the economic conflicts that help to make Eve interesting. Turning ice more into the Eve version of RL oil, and rightfully so, makes things more dynamic, which I think everyone would agree with.

So what do you guys think will happen to super prices?

1. Stay the same.
2. Go down. (if so by what %)
3. Go up.

I...

wait...

why are we even arguing again? We seem to agree.

I...

wait...

why are we even arguing again? We seem to agree.

People mine ice exactly because it's easy money. Make it a PITA to mine ice and no one is going to mine ice. It just won't be worth it. You can make much more money mining ore even now that the ice is endless. Put a limit on the amount of ice combined with a 4 hour possible wait time and no one is going to touch the stuff.

This, exactly.

Looking at a few of the ice fields in Caldari space over the past week, the smaller numbers suggests that some ice miners have already shifted back to ore in the hopes of getting ahead on BS production before Odyssey.

And, of course, after a few weeks of chasing anoms the "Can't Be Arsed" factor will climb steadily.

The devs seemed to have no idea about those ships at fanfest. I'd be very surprised if they're boosted in the next 2-3 iterations.

-Liang

Miners will scatter to the wind in search of a system to mine. Far far away from any ice field.

People mine ice exactly because it's easy money. Make it a PITA to mine ice and no one is going to mine ice. It just won't be worth it. You can make much more money mining ore even now that the ice is endless. Put a limit on the amount of ice combined with a 4 hour possible wait time and no one is going to touch the stuff.

gotta admit, it's unsettling that nobody has anything to say about my previous post. no trolling, or anything.

I wonder if this is one of those cases where I can't spot the fool.

you know, you're right.

I had a brilliant idea.

I'm going to scour killboards and look for T2 CCC fit thanny losses and ask if they'd be interested in a replacement.