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Methos
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Posted - 2005.09.14 07:02:00 -
[1]
This is what I have for research points thus far, and as of almost 19 months, i have no BPO's to show for this, I am thinking it was a colossal waste of time and isk buy these skills and training them up far enough to be ever really be worth the time/effort and as of yet it has not been. Any kind of possitive feed back to wether this lottery system is actually working correctly would be great.
Methos
Mislolen IssazainenCaldari Starship Engineering 83668.94241.92
Olonashi Nokka Caldari Starship Engineering 86086.33249.60
Harroken ShinunulaCaldari Starship Engineering151441.85266.88
Eistenen ArverasElectromagnetic Physics 10553.56 20.16
Anuken Urpalen Electronic Engineering 11763.58 59.78
Airatomon KidurouchiHydromagnetic Physics 15277.13 41.04
"We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence,
then, is not an act, but a habit." ARISTOTLE |
Corair
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Posted - 2005.09.14 07:13:00 -
[2]
Oh it works, but it's more like the "Wheel of Misfortune" than a lottery.
--------
I use homeless people and small children for fuel. |
Methos
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Posted - 2005.09.14 07:23:00 -
[3]
Well with over 300k in Cald ship you would with that when the "lottery" time comes around that my over a quarter million points might help even some, yet I hear about people getting BPO's with far less RP's than myself or even others. I am just looking to get some reasurance that this park of the game isnt borked the hell up.
Methos
"We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence,
then, is not an act, but a habit." ARISTOTLE |
capt
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Posted - 2005.09.14 08:46:00 -
[4]
Indeed some peole get BPOs for far less research points. But then again it is a lottery.....
IRL you could buy a thousand lottery tickets and win nothing and your neighbour could buy only 1 ticket and win it all.....
Then there is the fact that for some research projects you get far less rps/day than for others. For example rocket science project will give you far less rps than starship engineering......
Then there is the fact that everyone and his grandmother has multiple researchprojects in starship engineering. Thus reducing your chances of getting a BPO even more.....
You chances are a bit better with other projects.
And to keep you motivated, miracles do happen. I got a t2 BPO this weekend and I had that particular project running since day 1 or 2 that they introduced the research agents.... so that's a pretty long time.
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Methos
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Posted - 2005.09.14 08:58:00 -
[5]
First off, Grats for your win. And yes I have had the 151k guy running since pretty much the day they came out. I do have other projects as you can see and fairly high numbers there also and still no wins. I have gotten nothing and am curious if there are others in my same frame of mind that have ungodly amounts of time spent researching these things with nothing to show. I was doing this when they were hardly topping 5-6k on at peak times, now I can see that with so many people trying to get them I is was in the middle somewhere not getting one would not be nearly as annoying as being here since day one and not getting one. I started the game wanting to do the whole R&D thing with BPs back when it first launched and then got turned into a miner/trader with some ratting in between. I have been waiting since the beta and am wondering wtf is going on. SO, thi isnt me only doing it for a few months and getting feed up its me wanting to do this type of thing since the last phases of the beta and still not. Thats all. Its more of a frustration thing than anything else.
"We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence,
then, is not an act, but a habit." ARISTOTLE |
Wendy Holl
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Posted - 2005.09.14 09:36:00 -
[6]
What is it you dont understand about the work "lottery" ?
having large amounts of RP's is no guaranty of getting a tech II BPO
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Trooper B99
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Posted - 2005.09.14 10:02:00 -
[7]
Edited by: Trooper B99 on 14/09/2005 10:02:16
Remember, you may have loads with 300k RP, but I know of at least 3 other people who must have close on a million RP all combined in Caldari Starship Engineering if they haven't gotten BPo's yet and there are plenty more like them.
You've chosen as your primary a field (starship engineering) that is HEAVILY populated. Add to that you chose Caldari which is probably *the* most heavily populated of the Starship engineering fields. Thus your chance to get a BPo is smaller than say if you chose, for example, Amarran starship engineering.
So basically 50% of your possible rsearch projects are in a very very narrow field (x3 mod) with loads of other people all clamoring for very few BPo's per seeding.
Patience if the key with the lottery. Patience that eventually you will get lucky. Me i've gotten lucky 3 times since I started when the lottery started, once from Caldari Starship Engineering. Both other times were from more general fields. I don't wait with baited breath for a mail from my R&D agents simply because the odds are stacked against me even with my general field research projects.
Wirykomi Team Racer - COLOSSUS Championships Year 106
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Methos
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Posted - 2005.09.14 10:05:00 -
[8]
AH yes the word "lottery" I understand it clearly, I also understand that there are ppl who have won multiple times in a row. I am can tell you that 1 person winning a lottery consecutive times is not something you would or could calculate as the numbers would go beyond reason. Although with this particular type of lottery this has happend. i am not only voicing my frustration but that of all the people that have been hard at work running those stupid take my garbage here missions and what not. The word lottery is something i use lightly when compairing it to this type of "lottery". Here in the states if one person won a state lottery we would have a huge racus about it and it would be gone over with a fine tooth comb. In this "lottery" that is not the case or at least was not the case before. If you have nothing constructive to point out then by all means feel free to keep it in 
"We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence,
then, is not an act, but a habit." ARISTOTLE |
Kaaii
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Posted - 2005.09.14 11:10:00 -
[9]
Edited by: Kaaii on 14/09/2005 11:12:34
I say..
Have CCP put in the bp purchase, BUT
You can only purchase bpos with Research points.
Rewards the researchers, poo-poo's the money bags.
Make it an auction of sorts too, a week after notification, the bpo is rewarded to the one that "spent" the highest amount of RPs.
OR,
Everyone that wants to particapate in the lotto pool for a particular bpo, "spends" a certain amount (whatever they want to commit) into a mini-lotto pool for that bpo. then the winner is selected by random number, as before. This way if you don't want a gremlin II rocket bpo you won't be offered it if you haven't joined the "mini-pool"
thoughts?
"..Id rather fall beside 10 lions, then stand with One thousand sheep.."
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Jerod Nox
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Posted - 2005.09.14 11:30:00 -
[10]
To get an idea of the likelyhood of you having never won a raffle (really this is a raffle, not a lottery) inspite having played multiple times you need to know (or at least estimate) a few things:
A) How many raffle tickets are in play.
B) How many of them are yours.
C) How many raffle drawings have taken place.
Now, we know that (A) is very large compared to (B). I would not dare to estimate how large but I think its safe to assume that you have a good deal less than 1% of all the raffle tickets in play.
It is (C) that we can really put a number down on. Somebody here I am sure can provide a very good estimate of the total number of raffles that have taken place.
To calculate the chance that a person with (B) tickets out of (A) total tickets will NOT win ANY out of (C) drawings:
Chance = (1 - A / B) ^ C
As an extremely rough guess, lets say you have 0.1% of all the raffle tickets (1 out of every 1000), and that there have been 300 drawings:
(1 - 1 / 1000) ^ 300
=
(999 / 1000) ^ 300
=
0.74070703
...
so if my estimates are correct, 3 out of 4 people with the same amount of raffle tickets as you have not won a damn thing.
Nox - Superior technology is superior choice.
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capt
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Posted - 2005.09.14 11:46:00 -
[11]
 Originally by: Methos
If you have nothing constructive to point out then by all means feel free to keep it in
Funny you should mention "constructive". Your posts didn't really have anything constructive to ad either....
The only message I keep getting when reading your posts is "waaaa waaaa waaaaa where is my t2 bpo waaaa waaaa waaaa".
I have had the same thoughts. I too have multiple research projects. I started the fisrt or second day the research agents were introduced.
And yes it also made me scream out in anger when people got BPOs with only a handfull of rps.
But all this talk about hard work? Really now........ You honnestly can look me in the eye and tell me that you run each and every mission that those 5 research agents offer you daily?
I only did those missions the first month and then basicly told my agents where he/she could put his/her missions. so use math to calculate it for me, starting right after Castor, did only 1 months worth of missions, 'till last weekend where I finally got a BPO. And it was my very firts BPO offer, I never declined offers. Some people have declined numerous offers for mods theny thought weren't interesting enough.
But yes I hear you. I feel your pain.
I've had my doubts ,and loads of other peope have had their doubts too, on the lottery and if it didn't contain some programming errors or something.... There have been numerous post on the subject... and it never amounted to anything so you just have to trust CCP that this is the fairest system at moment.
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Bryan Durl
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Posted - 2005.09.14 13:56:00 -
[12]
Edited by: Bryan Durl on 14/09/2005 13:57:25
Correct me if im wrong, but you don't seem to have anything to fall back on. I don't do research because i don't see the point, if you waste away all your time doing reasearch and then complain that you don't have anything to do now because you havn't gotten any rewards then i have no sympathy.
Although this entire statement can be changed because im not entirely sure how research agents work.
Sorry if my view is wrong, or recieved badly.
Bry
-------------------
How did i get here?
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Sable Moran
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Posted - 2005.09.14 13:58:00 -
[13]
Originally by: Jerod Nox
A) How many raffle tickets are in play.
B) How many of them are yours.
C) How many raffle drawings have taken place.
I don't profess to have any facts on this (except for B). These are just my educated guesses:
B = about 320k for the OP
C = once per week when there is anything in the queue would not be an entirely bad guess. R&D agents have been around about 90 weeks. In the starthip engineering queues there has been something in them most of that time, let's say 75 weeks. So 75 raffles.
A = This is the most difficult to estimate. We can safely assume several thousand guys/gals running R&D agents. Each has 2 or 3 agents doing starship engineering jobs. Lets also assume maximized skills etc. and we will end up at about 250 RP/per day. Lets add up the numbers: 630 days of research done for 2,5 agents at 250 RP/day by about 10000 players.
630 * 250 = 157500 (pretty close to what the OP has on his number 1 agent)
157500 * 2,5 * 10000 = 3937500000
In other words there are almost four thousand million research points in starship engineering alone. Let's make a bold assumption and say that those 4 billion points are equally divided among the four races, that makes 1 billion points in caldari starship engineering.
Quite a lot of research points. The chances for any one individual of getting a BPO are low, very low.
Somebody do the maths to get the exact % for the chances, I can't be arsed.
-----
Sable's Ammo Shop at Alentene 5, Moon 4, Duvolle Laboratories Factory. Ammo at affordable prices. |
Alabaster Plate
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Posted - 2005.09.14 14:10:00 -
[14]
WHere's my t2 BPO? I have 300 rps. That's three hundred - not 300k.
Hope i win before you do
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Cookie
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Posted - 2005.09.14 21:56:00 -
[15]
"What does it take to get a friggen BPO!!!!!"
patience, and ... more important, truckloads of luck, hence that lottery thingy mentioned several times.
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HippoKing
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Posted - 2005.09.14 22:14:00 -
[16]
truckloads of luck, or sleep with the agent.
skill training of Doing Anything to get a Promotion to level 5 completed
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Methos
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Posted - 2005.09.15 05:31:00 -
[17]
Wow I am glad to see that there are other people that are as buggerd about it as myself, I am patient and yes I know everyone and thier cousin and brothers frieds friend is doing Starship research. That being said even to those that have 300 not 300k good luck in the "drawing" and yea I think its more of a raffel than a true lottery. I have always wonderd about it and still and I am sure I will continue to do so. Well thanks everyone for replying to my rant and for those of you that came in with the facts my hats off to you.
Thanks all 
"We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence,
then, is not an act, but a habit." ARISTOTLE |
sonofollo
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Posted - 2005.09.15 09:50:00 -
[18]
1 run t2 BPCs that offer much more often than the t2 BPOs coming soon from CCP - its such a good idea isnt it :)
perhaps 5000 RP for each one or u could knock it back etc.
TBH put the RP up there otehrwise its a waste of time. Better to run level 4 missions - get the LP get the offers save youre ISK and buy a t2 BPO for 2B approx
Be careful of escrow - cause a lot of people pass of t2 BPOs as t1 BPOs (always inspect merchandise to make sure its the real deal
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TotensBurntCorpse
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Posted - 2005.09.15 13:21:00 -
[19]
I kinda agree with the idea of having a BPO / BPC auction using RPs rather than a Lottery.
1) ppl with ridiculous amounts of RPs will finally get something for them.
2) BPCs rather than BPOs would make some Tech2 available to everyone who saves enough RPs to buy them.
3) cash isnt the buying power but RPs saved.
4) BPC sales to players will keep Tech2 flowing into the game without crushing the BPO winners profits.
5) Tech2 flow can be directed by CCP easier with BPC auctions since they can flood or dry up areas as needed.
6) Faction BPCs could be sold the same way for ppl who dont do missions up the ying yang.
7) goofy new BPCs can be entered into the game with reasonable control as testing beds (ie imagine a Navy issue BPO getting out there vs some BPCs, another entry could be implant BPCs to soak up RPs).
8) RPs can become a sub trading currency instead of isks for the RnD markets, allowing poor and unlucky researchers to atleast get a piece of the pie if they spend some RPs from time to time.
I can see CCP fearing the loss of control of too many BPOs out there. But an auction system for BPCs of tech2 would help the frustrated RnD ppl out there. It will also somewhat give a return on stockpiling RPs to infinity.
Just some thoughts. Comments ????
TotensBurntCorpse
Likes
EVE, Starfleet Command Series, Earth & Beyond, Anything Battlefield, MOHAA, Call of Duty.
Dislikes
Not much. |
Arleonenis
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Posted - 2005.09.15 15:19:00 -
[20]
Edited by: Arleonenis on 15/09/2005 15:19:21
agree with toten, buying for rp is far better imho and no i dont have resarch agent and i dont think about getting one, it just seems fair to me. From what i know there was multiple persons that got many tech2 bpos, some guys get it few in the row... sooo its not true lottery, just very bad programming
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Phenomenor
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Posted - 2005.09.15 15:28:00 -
[21]
Aye, copy that mr Totens !!! great idea!!
"The more we know, the brighter the light, but the greater the mating face with things still in the dark..." |
Jolo
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Posted - 2005.09.15 16:02:00 -
[22]
Edited by: Jolo on 15/09/2005 16:03:15
In my opinion it's rigged, CCP is giving those BPO to their own personnel, think about it you hear people getting them but who are they. That's my 2 cents.
Disclaimer this is my view and if you tell anyone I said this I will deny it.
---------------------------------------
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Methos
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Posted - 2005.09.15 18:46:00 -
[23]
The buying BPC with RP is a great idea. i really think it should be suggested to them, at least as a trial thing to see how it works out.
"We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence,
then, is not an act, but a habit." ARISTOTLE |
Tars Tarkhas
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Posted - 2005.09.21 18:17:00 -
[24]
 Have patience. Taking so long and being so random is part of what makes it so fun if/when you do win.
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Johannes Buckbeak
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Posted - 2005.09.21 19:12:00 -
[25]
Originally by: Arleonenis
Edited by: Arleonenis on 15/09/2005 15:19:21
agree with toten, buying for rp is far better imho and no i dont have resarch agent and i dont think about getting one, it just seems fair to me. From what i know there was multiple persons that got many tech2 bpos, some guys get it few in the row... sooo its not true lottery, just very bad programming
That "sooo" is just sooo wrong. Some people get more than their fair share, some get nothing... sooo we know it IS a true lottery. A random process produces precisely this sort of clustering. If everyone got rewarded in proportion to their RPs, and nobody got more or less than their fair share, then we would know for sure that it was not a lottery.
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Mannakin
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Posted - 2005.09.21 19:15:00 -
[26]
Edited by: Mannakin on 21/09/2005 19:19:51
Edited by: Mannakin on 21/09/2005 19:18:09
This may be obvious, but it's only possible to get a BPO if your agent still has some on offer. When you started research there may have been some nice juicy BPOs, but check again.
If it says "Nothing easily predictable." in your science subject, then you are only accumulating points in that science for any future BPO that may be introduced to the game.
Examine your agent "Eistenen Arveras" for an example!
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Zinjan
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Posted - 2005.09.21 21:27:00 -
[27]
Long ago there should have been a rp limit in place, so that only f.ex. 1 month worth of rp's would be entering the drawing. This way a lot more rp's would exit the system, resulting in a more fairly distribution.
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Tarino
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Posted - 2005.09.21 23:42:00 -
[28]
Originally by: Jolo
Edited by: Jolo on 15/09/2005 16:03:15
In my opinion it's rigged, CCP is giving those BPO to their own personnel, think about it you hear people getting them but who are they. That's my 2 cents.
Disclaimer this is my view and if you tell anyone I said this I will deny it.
I was talking to a guy in the Blue Print trade channel and he said he won like 5 t2 bpos this month alone. thought it kinda odd that he also used to be in the BiG Corporation. which has known connections with CCP for events and such.
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Lefia
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Posted - 2005.09.22 04:46:00 -
[29]
I've always been a huge advocate of having research agents use the lotto system to give out BPOs and also have research agents give out "offers" of BPCs that take research points and possibly a small nominal isk or trade good in exchange exchange. This way those who want to play the lottery can, while the rest of us can get a few BPCs and make some of those mods that are currently gouging the market (T2 Cap Rechargers).
Originally by: hired goon
------------------------------------------------
I agree with every point and counter point that has been brought up in this and every other argument ever had.
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Riggwelter
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Posted - 2005.09.22 15:24:00 -
[30]
Originally by: Jolo
Edited by: Jolo on 15/09/2005 16:03:15
In my opinion it's rigged, CCP is giving those BPO to their own personnel, think about it you hear people getting them but who are they. That's my 2 cents.
Disclaimer this is my view and if you tell anyone I said this I will deny it.
Well im not a CCP employee and over 2 Research Characters ive had 6 BPO offers as follows
Harpy
Large Shield Booster
650mm Artillery
Medium Cap Battery
A tech 2 passive armour hardner (no idea what as i declined it)
Dual 250mm Rail Gun
Then again maybe im just very lucky was actually starting to think been a while since i had a BPO offer 
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Kaaii
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Posted - 2005.09.22 17:11:00 -
[31]
Originally by: Riggwelter
Originally by: Jolo
Edited by: Jolo on 15/09/2005 16:03:15
In my opinion it's rigged, CCP is giving those BPO to their own personnel, think about it you hear people getting them but who are they. That's my 2 cents.
Disclaimer this is my view and if you tell anyone I said this I will deny it.
Well im not a CCP employee and over 2 Research Characters ive had 6 BPO offers as follows
Harpy
Large Shield Booster
650mm Artillery
Medium Cap Battery
A tech 2 passive armour hardner (no idea what as i declined it)
Dual 250mm Rail Gun
Then again maybe im just very lucky was actually starting to think been a while since i had a BPO offer
This is just soooo wrong.....
"..Id rather fall beside 10 lions, then stand with One thousand sheep.."
http://www.albinoblacksheep.com/flash/posting.php
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Thalera Saldana
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Posted - 2005.09.23 11:24:00 -
[32]
How about excluding characters from the lottery for 1-2 months after they have won a BPO? Or does this already happen?
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Skybar
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Posted - 2005.09.23 14:20:00 -
[33]
Originally by: Riggwelter
Originally by: Jolo
Edited by: Jolo on 15/09/2005 16:03:15
In my opinion it's rigged, CCP is giving those BPO to their own personnel, think about it you hear people getting them but who are they. That's my 2 cents.
Disclaimer this is my view and if you tell anyone I said this I will deny it.
Well im not a CCP employee and over 2 Research Characters ive had 6 BPO offers as follows
Harpy
Large Shield Booster
650mm Artillery
Medium Cap Battery
A tech 2 passive armour hardner (no idea what as i declined it)
Dual 250mm Rail Gun
Then again maybe im just very lucky was actually starting to think been a while since i had a BPO offer
If we assume that the chance to get a bpo offer is as large/small as the guy on first page calculated, like 0,1%. Then whats the chance to get 6 of them? 0,001^6, you do the math... it showed up alot of zero's in my calculator.
I wont comment on it.
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Mannakin
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Posted - 2005.09.23 18:19:00 -
[34]
For some people to get more than 2 BPO offers just defies the laws of probabilty.
To be honest, there must be a bias in the BPO Lottery somewhere. I'm not saying the lottery is rigged, but the algorithm to assign BPO cannot be truely random based on research points.
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Al Thorr
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Posted - 2005.09.24 09:07:00 -
[35]
Maybe just Maybe its not the lottery system itself but the "random" number generator used. .
Just a thought
Regards Al Thorr
I Am in shape, ROUND is a shape |
Ishmael Hansen
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Posted - 2005.09.24 09:45:00 -
[36]
Originally by: Riggwelter
Originally by: Jolo
Edited by: Jolo on 15/09/2005 16:03:15
In my opinion it's rigged, CCP is giving those BPO to their own personnel, think about it you hear people getting them but who are they. That's my 2 cents.
Disclaimer this is my view and if you tell anyone I said this I will deny it.
Well im not a CCP employee and over 2 Research Characters ive had 6 BPO offers as follows
Harpy
Large Shield Booster
650mm Artillery
Medium Cap Battery
A tech 2 passive armour hardner (no idea what as i declined it)
Dual 250mm Rail Gun
Then again maybe im just very lucky was actually starting to think been a while since i had a BPO offer
Is this any kind of joke? Are you serious? This week I was thinking on doing some missions for a r&d corp so I could get standings to put some agents available, and I found myself doing lvl 2 missions for about 2h, till I thought, what the heck I'll go 0.0 ratting this ain't worth it. I just wish I had my science skillpoints moved to gunnery instead.
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KaunKing
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Posted - 2005.10.09 08:09:00 -
[37]
I have 2R&D Characters with 9 Agents so I have gotten
Stiletto
Malediction
Anathema
Prorator
800mm lrg Proj gun
Orge II drone
And turned down A small beam bpo(should have taken that one oh well)
Must be another lucky one.
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sonofollo
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Posted - 2005.10.09 08:21:00 -
[38]
the idea to implement t2 limited run BPCs in exchange for a small amount of RP and some trade goods has been thrown at CCP so many times over and over and it all seems wasted effort to date - things are on the drawing board but on this one they are going their own and ignoring that particular player suggestion base ... for the worst in my opinion but maybe they can add more diversity and get more players into small scale t2 BPO productoin
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Tomas Nuerin
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Posted - 2005.10.09 09:24:00 -
[39]
Originally by: KaunKing
I have 2R&D Characters with 9 Agents so I have gotten
Stiletto
Malediction
Anathema
Prorator
800mm lrg Proj gun
Orge II drone
And turned down A small beam bpo(should have taken that one oh well)
Must be another lucky one.
This makes me so f...ing angry. Some of us gets multiple (not two, but multiple) BPO's while some of us just sit and watch RP's grow.
I know it's lottery, but still. How can someone have so much luck? I still think there is something wrong with that lottery code. Seems like after you have one offer you have much better chance to get another one.
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KaunKing
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Posted - 2005.10.09 13:30:00 -
[40]
You must understand that I was using the best R&D agents in the game the since day one. I had my standing set so I was ready when they were first introduced. That was well before may players really ran missions. There were no rare bpc drops and the loot and rewards were not so great. So the pool of tickets was small. At this time with the number of players with R&D points my offers are like yours none. I no longer run the daily mission I had done with a passion. AS I also realise the chances have changed. Back when ceptor bpo's first came out they were bought for very little isk compared to now. I still have all the bpo's. I build em, sell em, and make bpc's to sell. Never have I entertained selling a bpo for a high price. I play the game because I love the market.
I feel I got in before the R&D curve was saturated. I is not rigged. I just played it well before every eve player with 5 alts got into the R&D business.
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callisthenes excelsior
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Posted - 2005.10.09 14:12:00 -
[41]
Are there any stats anywhere of the number of points in the pool?
This would help players see that the lotto isn't rigged?
For example, 18 mil points in caldari starship pool versus someone's 300000 points. |
HalfLoaf
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Posted - 2005.10.09 14:23:00 -
[42]
I would love just one offer 
---
Loaf Is For Living !! Loaf It To The Full
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afk demonkiller
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Posted - 2005.10.09 19:36:00 -
[43]
I have the seed of an idea for a complementry sytem to the current one. O.k a while back now i remember there being a char that manufuctured the 100 millionth piece of ammo (or something like that) This char got some neat stuff from ccp couldn't there be more bonus BPO's dropped this way to research chars so an example would be "well done you've hauled the 600'000'th piece of garbage this month he's a little gift of the blue variety". This would A) Reward the peeps that actualy use their research chars rather than just sitting into station gaining rp's for nothing B) Add a true random factor to bpo drops.
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Brock Renslar
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Posted - 2005.10.10 10:16:00 -
[44]
Here's an idea... CCP wouldn't really need to change anything. They could just post a little info for us. I am sure we would all be a little more comfortable with this if they informed us of things such as the dates that the BPOs are given, how many RPs the winners had, how many "tickets" were in the lottery, etc. Just some basic stats would make us feel like there really was a lottery. As it is now, there are no indications as to when the lottery has taken place, etc. People get frustrated because all we see is the accumulation of the RPs in our research journal. We never hear anything like "Congratulations to Joe Pod-Guy who just won a Harpy BPO in this weeks BPO lottery!" Not that I would be totally happy that I didn't win, but I think the knowledge that someone DID win would do some good. It is hard to have blind faith in such things when we rarely see any results.
...unless of course, this info is being given out already and I just don't know about it.
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Scarion
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Posted - 2005.10.10 10:34:00 -
[45]
How does that lottery work?
Is it on daily base? Or what kind of frequency do they use?
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spRAYed
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Posted - 2005.10.10 10:59:00 -
[46]
Maybe u are all getting scammed! If players can do it....then y cant NPC corps do it aswell 
Mining 4tw.
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<it cant be 2 big now.....it just cant> |
JackDonkey
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Posted - 2005.10.10 19:49:00 -
[47]
the lottery is some lame ****, unless I am "selected" to receive a bpo then it kicks ass.
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Mo Steel
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Posted - 2005.10.11 03:56:00 -
[48]
Originally by: KaunKing
You must understand that I was using the best R&D agents in the game the since day one. I had my standing set so I was ready when they were first introduced. That was well before may players really ran missions. There were no rare bpc drops and the loot and rewards were not so great. So the pool of tickets was small. At this time with the number of players with R&D points my offers are like yours none. I no longer run the daily mission I had done with a passion. AS I also realise the chances have changed. Back when ceptor bpo's first came out they were bought for very little isk compared to now. I still have all the bpo's. I build em, sell em, and make bpc's to sell. Never have I entertained selling a bpo for a high price. I play the game because I love the market.
I feel I got in before the R&D curve was saturated. I is not rigged. I just played it well before every eve player with 5 alts got into the R&D business.
And you still haven't gotten it yet? So what? If I bought a lottery ticket in real life, and didn't win in twenty years, even if I did it every day and started first on the first day, it doesn't mean I'm entitled to win. Get over it would be my advice, it's a game and it's a lottery.
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Xune
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Posted - 2005.10.11 06:39:00 -
[49]
Originally by: Mo Steel
Originally by: KaunKing
You must understand that I was using the best R&D agents in the game the since day one. I had my standing set so I was ready when they were first introduced. That was well before may players really ran missions. There were no rare bpc drops and the loot and rewards were not so great. So the pool of tickets was small. At this time with the number of players with R&D points my offers are like yours none. I no longer run the daily mission I had done with a passion. AS I also realise the chances have changed. Back when ceptor bpo's first came out they were bought for very little isk compared to now. I still have all the bpo's. I build em, sell em, and make bpc's to sell. Never have I entertained selling a bpo for a high price. I play the game because I love the market.
I feel I got in before the R&D curve was saturated. I is not rigged. I just played it well before every eve player with 5 alts got into the R&D business.
And you still haven't gotten it yet? So what? If I bought a lottery ticket in real life, and didn't win in twenty years, even if I did it every day and started first on the first day, it doesn't mean I'm entitled to win. Get over it would be my advice, it's a game and it's a lottery.
And from how many people you know that have won the lottery-jackpots 5 times ?
lame response, realy
1 time... yes
2 times OK it COULD happen
3 times um.... how much % chanche do you have for that ?
4...................
5 freaking hell whats happening here ?
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Teles666
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Posted - 2005.10.11 12:54:00 -
[50]
I've not got a single RP, so I guess I can't win :)
But the comments in this thread show me the randomness of the lottery is not random. Do CCP know what is happening and plan to fix it?
If I was going into R&D I think I'd use multiple accounts and alts to do it - don't put all your eggs in one basket as it appears some baskets are broken.
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Maggot
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Posted - 2005.10.11 13:43:00 -
[51]
As a multiple bpo winner (9 of them so far from this character from 7 different agents, i,e two agents have dropped twice and then I upgraded to level IV agents), I would recommend that you run the non-bonus streams, e.g. mech eng, electronic engineering, etc. However the past is no guarantee of future performance.
I have two alts with 11 agents between them running the more specialised streams and they have never had a single drop.
Maggot.
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Fergus Runkle
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Posted - 2005.10.11 17:41:00 -
[52]
Oh come on, how can there be people that win any fair lottery 5, 6 or 9 (NINE!) times. That just defies belief.
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Sarah Ponytails
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Posted - 2005.10.11 18:04:00 -
[53]
Hallo thar!!! I come from texas and ai've won maself the sweepstakes 9 times this year, why ia'm a multi-billionaire 
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D'ni
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Posted - 2005.10.17 05:49:00 -
[54]
Just thought I'd add in my 0.02isk worth on this. (And please note that I'm only a comp sci student rather than an experienced professional so this is all to the best of my understanding. My appologies if I got it wrong.)
My main note is about the whole lottery aspect, or more specifically, the randomness of it: The main problem with this is that computers are not able to truly be random, regardless of how complex/advanced a random number generator is used. This is why, in real life, tumbling machines with multiple numbered balls are used to determine the winning lotto numbers. The hardest part about the RP lotto is the simple fact that it has to deal with variable amounts of "tickets".
The basic explanation of how computers get random numbers is to access an unrealated area of memory and convert whatever data is in that location into a number. This skews the odds however as it now factors in what data values are common in the memory of the computer, hence the clustering effect. Advanced methods are used to counter this effect, but they are notably less effective when the range of random values isn't fixed. (Lots of weird binary math that I have yet to fully comprehend...)
What I'm trying to say is that the main problem is inherent in the hardware itself.
As such, I think that the RP auction idea is a great one. It's a good way to give people with masses of RP a chance to cash in, with those who haven't won anything having many more RP to spend on such than those who have.
There's also another option though that could stir things up a bit: allow both isk AND RP to be used in BPO auctions. Of course, the value of RPs would have to be established in isk. The best way to make this work would be to have 1 RP worth a fair chunk of isk. (10:1, 100:1, 1000:1, higher?) Effectively, this would treat the auctions as a method of rushing the R&D teams into finishing a project (BPO) faster. Hence why RP are worth more than isk: collaboration, rather than additional funding, is the most efficient way to speed up research by solving critical stumbling blocks. (Anyone who's worked with complex algorithms (advanced math, programming, etc.) will be familiar with the problem of the invisible stupid mistake: 2+2=5, but you don't see it till someone else glances over your shoulder and points it out. Damn is that ever a ****-off after hours/days of looking for what's wrong to no avail...)
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D'ni
Specialist Research Scientists / Industrialist |
Mnengli Noiliffe
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Posted - 2005.10.17 11:41:00 -
[55]
I think there are some hidden inside criterias they consider when deciding who give the bpos to. I guess one of the main of them is that the person must be in respectable corp, and things like that... Because they feel it's just giving away lots of isk for nothing when a person who, by their internal standards, didn't deserve it, receives a BPO worth several billion isk. Read this for example...
Thus people within small corps (or in npc corps) and research alts with hard to guess main are most unlikely to receive anything, ever.
It's just a theory though.
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Dilettante
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Posted - 2005.10.17 11:55:00 -
[56]
I won a BPO recently, I picked the R&D agent about 9 months ago. I never did any mission for him nor his corporation, I just ignored him for 9 months.
I have corpmates who have 4 or 5 agents for more than a year, some used to do missions and they have maybe 3 or 4 times more RP than I had when I won my BPO.
I really take this as a lottery, keep your RD running in background and focus on something completely different meanwhile. |
Maggot
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Posted - 2005.10.17 12:50:00 -
[57]
Originally by: Mnengli Noiliffe
I think there are some hidden inside criterias they consider when deciding who give the bpos to.
Why would they care?
Did you write this from your underground bunker?
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Joshua Foiritain
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Posted - 2005.10.17 14:53:00 -
[58]
If my RnD agent wasnt a female would have slept with her wife a looong time go just to punish her for being such a crappy RnD agent 
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[Coreli Corporation Mainframe] |
Kyle Caldrel
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Posted - 2005.10.18 01:28:00 -
[59]
if you want a bpo, go to any station and buy a shuttle bpo.
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Mar vel
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Posted - 2005.10.18 03:28:00 -
[60]
I bought into RA's early; @ 40m isk, it is undoubtedly the worst waste of isk I have ever tossed away. That's a pretty expensive lottery ticket. All of you griefers who say you can't play w/o a ticket can kiss my a** right in the *****. A $40m entrance fee is no joke, and it shouldn't be taken lightly.
I have nowhere near the kinds of RP's some of the characters here have: I have never deluded myself that I will "win" anything. I let my RA's do whatever it is that they do. If I ever see one in 0.0 it's KOS.
That being said:
Whoever thinks that there's anything random about the current system had better pull their heads out of the a**.
Someone who gets 6 (or even 9) BPO's should raise a BIG RED FLAG that there's nothing random going on here. Look at the numbers. I don't give a poo how early you got in - that shouldn't make THAT much of a difference.
Look at the link from the Dev chat just a week ago. OMG, blatant admission.
and...just so that I can demonstrate even further, I know of one individual in particular who had several hundred thousand RP's in various field who complained diligently about his lack of offers; after POS's came out, he was running a T2 manufacturing consortium - but had no BPO's to speak of. After interfacing with some Dev's in re: POS problems, he was suddenly (oh my gosh, it happened) was flush with SEVERAL BPO's within a few weeks passing. He then bought a few others just to round out his collection. This was March 2005.
So don't tell me it's random. Talk to the Left.
Mar
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Maggot
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Posted - 2005.10.18 07:22:00 -
[61]
Originally by: Mar vel
Someone who gets 6 (or even 9) BPO's should raise a BIG RED FLAG that there's nothing random going on here. Look at the numbers. I don't give a poo how early you got in - that shouldn't make THAT much of a difference.
The strategy I picked was to go for the large groups with no bonuses, rather than focus on the specialised routes. I think that paid off, along with the fact that I was in research since day one of research agents being available and got some of the very first bpos released. All the probability examples I have seen have not taken into account the game theory behaviour of everyone ploughing into the specialised routes such as the ship queues, which has increased the probability of a payout for those using the non-bonus queues.
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B0rn2KiLL
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Posted - 2005.10.18 18:20:00 -
[62]
well, i dont know much of anything really, but:
seeming as we pay 15$ a month for this game, and CCP maintain the hardware and try to answer every one of our petitions, why not just make the lottery operated by humans, devs, mods, or whoever is encharge.. have a couple devs encharge of a few R&D agent group.. and actually do a good ol` sturring the pot and snatching a ticket witha name on it.
have a comp generate name clipings from the DB, spew them into a pot, n have someone put his hand in, shake it, and pull out a note..
this BPO stuff realy effects the game.. and having some few lucky ppl with multibil-tril isks is just a bit unfair to me.. especialyl when a ticket is 40 mil isks. why people who won enough bpo might target a few corps and war thm to death cause they have enough money to outsurvive the siege..
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When It Absolutely Positively Has To Be Desotroyed. |
Kaaii
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Posted - 2005.10.18 22:05:00 -
[63]
Originally by: Mar vel
Look at the link from the Dev chat just a week ago. OMG, blatant admission.
Mar
I haved looked for this chat and can't find it, can you link it please?
"..Id rather fall beside 10 lions, then stand with One thousand sheep.."
http://www.albinoblacksheep.com/flash/posting.php
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Sable Moran
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Posted - 2005.10.19 09:35:00 -
[64]
Originally by: Kaaii
I haved looked for this chat and can't find it, can you link it please?
Chat: Linkage
Post chat interview: Linkage
BTW, I don't agree with Mar Vel. Having read the chat I don't see any blatant admission of rigged lottery, all I see is another whiner who has little to no knowledge of statistical mathematics.
-----
Sable's Ammo Shop at Alentene 5, Moon 4, Duvolle Laboratories Factory. Ammo at affordable prices. |
Maggot
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Posted - 2005.10.19 11:36:00 -
[65]
K, I knocked together a spreadsheet today to see how implausuble the probabilities are of getting 9 drops.
The results are quite interesting. I assumed a binomial distribution. If you assume a stream with lots of people researching it, the chances of getting a drop are pretty low. As soon as you start to reduce the pool of people researching a given stream the probabilities increase drastically. This shifts even further with taking into account any advantage you might have from having higher standings or having being in the streams longer than others.
I cannot post my spreadsheet at work, but use these inputs and see what you get:
Number of BPO items in a stream (I assumed 100, which the basic streams must have had easily)
Number of BPOs instances (e.g. 20)
Total Number of BPOs in stream (thus 2000)
Number of research projects (this is guess work, but remember some streams are more popular than others, I guessed at 2000)
Average Research points per researcher (10000)
Your points (50000)
Have fun
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