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Will Invention raise T2 equipment prices?

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Noluck Ned FATAL REVELATIONS Lotka Volterra	Posted - 2006.10.30 09:21:00 - [1] Ok so we are soon to be granted the ability to produce our own T2 BPC's. Everyone is hoping that this will stop the astronomical infaltion which has been a hot topic on these forums for the longest time. However there is something that has been overlooked by most: The Supply Chain behind T2 production. It boils down to one thing: The relative availability of moon minerals. At the moment we have a limited number of T2 producers competing for a limited number of resources, soon we will have a much higher number of producers, yet at this point there is no indication that the raw materials needed will become any more freely available. Most of the "Good" moons in eve are already being mined and since the best moons are found in 0.0, many in alliance controled territory I somehow doubt that there is going to be any significant increase in the availability of moon products. So what now? Will invention really force T2 prices down or will we see the already runaway inflation picking up even more momentum? Food for thought. F4T4L is Recruiting!
jeNK Caldari STK Scientific Ascendant Frontier	Posted - 2006.10.30 09:28:00 - [2] Edited by: jeNK on 30/10/2006 09:28:04 They will go down until the pinch is felt with t2 components. Then we'll see 'discussions' about it all over the fora, then more moons will be suddenly able to produce the materials needed for components in the next expansion and things will finally get cheaper, but by then t3 will be out and that'll be a whole new bag with "absolute farcical ripoff" scribbled all over it.
Blighter	Posted - 2006.10.30 09:32:00 - [3] We will see moon minerals price rise, as more people will be competing for the materials needed for t2 production. People will try to pass these costs on to customers, but with more people competing to sell, undercutting, as seen in the T1 market would occur, which will probably hold prices pretty constant, if not have them fall a bit So, overall, I think the profit margins of T2 will get a hit, as costs rise, and the product sell for the same, perhaps even a bit less, for mods. Ships are another thing entirely, but HAC's are will probably drop the most due to the aboove factors, as well as the Tier 2 BC's being comparable.
Kanuo Ashkeron Eve Defence Force Ascendant Frontier	Posted - 2006.10.30 09:34:00 - [4] The price for highly overpriced T2 items is composed by 10% production cost and 90% profit. So the shortage of moon minerals increases the 10% by a bit, but the increased supply of T2 items will cut the 90% by much. Kanuo
Xs 142	Posted - 2006.10.30 09:41:00 - [5] I see we have Percentage Slingers around.. Originally by: Oveur Eternally yours, The other dumbass
Za Po Caldari	Posted - 2006.10.30 09:55:00 - [6] It depends. Some T2 items have enormous margins, and increasing cost of components will not significantly affect their retail price. Others have relatively low margins, and the increased cost of components might push their price up.
Yoko Milan Phantom Squad iPOD Alliance	Posted - 2006.10.30 10:29:00 - [7] Well you also have to take into account that there is going to be 8 new regions opening up. Yes it will take a while for some territory disputes, and some dust to settle. But in the end that's going to greatly increase the amount of t2 rescources available. Also many of these lower quality moons are now going to be much more profitable to mine. Overal I belive we are going to see a large drop in the prices of t2. I'll be happy to see the price of hulks drop a couple hundred mil. RL "My front door is Gate Camped"
Xeliya Dark-Rising	Posted - 2006.10.30 10:52:00 - [8] A HAC cost 17mill to build right now but cost 250mill . . . I can only see the cost of building maybe go up to 25mill but HAC's will cost probably around 100mill maybe less. I know I will be making my own HAC's for PVP so the price for me will drop for sure ----------
Akita T Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force	Posted - 2006.10.30 10:57:00 - [9] That's (basically) what I was saying since they started talking about invention in the first place. You could just as well make it so that invention gives out BPOs instead of BPCs, and you still wouldn't have a (significantly) smaller price in T2 items (soon enough), due to the associated costs in manufacture. _____ -sig- This is my only char. These are my skills Always question everything, including yourself
Dark Shikari Caldari Imperium Technologies Firmus Ixion	Posted - 2006.10.30 11:10:00 - [10] Originally by: Xeliya A HAC cost 17mill to build right now but cost 250mill . . . I can only see the cost of building maybe go up to 25mill but HAC's will cost probably around 100mill maybe less. I know I will be making my own HAC's for PVP so the price for me will drop for sure HACs have never cost 17 million to build. Maybe around twice that. -[23] Member- Awesome new space games site, from the editor of E-ON!
FFGR Maza Nostra Euphoria Unleashed	Posted - 2006.10.30 11:10:00 - [11] Originally by: Xeliya A HAC cost 17mill to build right now but cost 250mill . . . I can only see the cost of building maybe go up to 25mill but HAC's will cost probably around 100mill maybe less. I know I will be making my own HAC's for PVP so the price for me will drop for sure I sure want to get the prices you get for those compoments and minerals for the HAC building ... @OP Most people that I know of that are in T2 business have seen that also and have stockpiled some compoments. You have to count in though the 8 new 0.0 regions for moon mining though as there will surely be many moons to mine Even though if prices rise on the compoments you can be sure that prices will fall on many products because you will have a semi-open t2 production, cause many people will kill most of the profit like I see on many occasions on the market. Most recent example I had seen on the ship market was a guy that even though there was a sell order of one ship (that is the cheapest order), he went and put 10 ships for a significantly less price. _____________________________ siggys v. 0.5
James Lyrus Lyrus Associates Interstellar Starbase Syndicate	Posted - 2006.10.30 11:50:00 - [12] Edited by: James Lyrus on 30/10/2006 11:50:48 Some T2 items the sale price is entirely controlled by the production rate vs. demand. E.g. T2 ships, and certain modules. Other stuff is vaguely sensibly priced. Suprisingly enough though, it's basically none of the stuff that's used extensively. These latter will become more expensive to produce, thus driving their price up, if we assume that there will be insufficient supply of T2 materials. However, for a long time the 'margin' on POS materials has been very tight. Even the 'very rare' reactions. The problem is fairly simply, that you have to run at least 3 tower to get a complex out, and some you need as many as 5 or 6. Which is a lot of hauling, even if you're out in 0.0 with a fuel discount. If you assume you have reselling of raw -> simple -> complex all the steps of the chain want enough profit to make it worth their effort hauling. My prediction? Component costs will climb initially, driving up production costs. Lower end T2 modules will increase in price, and reach new equilibrum at a higher value (possibly reducing production of these items). Higher end T2 will fall off steadily towards the point where market price reflects the cost and effort involved in inventing stuff. I suspect this will be fairly slow, although with an initial crash as lots of people cash in RPs and start 'having a go' at inventing. Once the vast RP surplus is depleted, then the prices will stabilise again. Exactly what level is going to be very sensitive to a lot of factors from success rate, time required and barriers to entry. Oh, but 0.0 price and availability on T2 is going to improve greatly, as I reckon many more would be prepared to risk an inefficient HAC BPC where they wouldn't risk a BPO.
Azrael Bierce Eve Defence Force	Posted - 2006.10.30 16:53:00 - [13] I honestly don't see invention reducing prices much unless the items you buy with RPs are hella cheap. You'll get a few people doing it, but by and large I'd expect most people to sit on their RPs and not spend them on invention. Why? Because by spending your RPs you are giving up your chance of getting a BPO. That chance is near/at 0 now, but there is always the chance of new seeds. No RPs = no possibility of winning at all. The smaller manufacturers that never bothered with research, the combat pilots that get a couple of low grade agents so they can invent their own replacement ships, those I can see making use of this. The hardcore researchers with millions of RPs that have been grinding out points waiting for that hulk bpo... I just don't see them changing course for a temporary gain.
Labratory Rat	Posted - 2006.10.30 16:58:00 - [14] Originally by: Xeliya A HAC cost 17mill to build right now but cost 250mill . . . I can only see the cost of building maybe go up to 25mill but HAC's will cost probably around 100mill maybe less. I know I will be making my own HAC's for PVP so the price for me will drop for sure Last time I built a few hacs they cost 35-40mil to build.
coldplasma	Posted - 2006.10.30 17:03:00 - [15] i remember the days when hacs cost 100mill... oh those were the days... ____________________________ See you in 0.0 kids...
Seine	Posted - 2006.10.30 17:28:00 - [16] Originally by: Azrael Bierce I honestly don't see invention reducing prices much unless the items you buy with RPs are hella cheap. You'll get a few people doing it, but by and large I'd expect most people to sit on their RPs and not spend them on invention. Why? Because by spending your RPs you are giving up your chance of getting a BPO. That chance is near/at 0 now, but there is always the chance of new seeds. No RPs = no possibility of winning at all. The smaller manufacturers that never bothered with research, the combat pilots that get a couple of low grade agents so they can invent their own replacement ships, those I can see making use of this. The hardcore researchers with millions of RPs that have been grinding out points waiting for that hulk bpo... I just don't see them changing course for a temporary gain. This won't happen since with invention CCP will be removing the current BPO system, there will be no more Tech2 BPOs and hopfully they remove all the current ones as well.
Pick Me	Posted - 2006.10.30 17:38:00 - [17] Originally by: Seine This won't happen since with invention CCP will be removing the current BPO system, there will be no more Tech2 BPOs and hopfully they remove all the current ones as well. You miss-read the thing they said because there will be much lottery involved in the next tech 2 wave and tech 3 one too. Invention is a nice way for people to lose their RP so there is more bpo for us.
Dutarro Kydance Radiant Industries Interstellar Starbase Syndicate	Posted - 2006.10.30 17:39:00 - [18] There must be thousands of unused moons in the existing EVE regions, let alone the 8 new regions. How many PvP alliances that claim a region have actually probed all the moons they control and set up industrial POSs on the good ones? If moon product demand rises a lot, there will be more financial incentive for alliances to exploit their own territory, or let industrial corps come in and rent moons. *opinions stated are not necessarily those of my corporation or alliance
Akita T Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force	Posted - 2006.10.30 17:44:00 - [19] Originally by: Seine This won't happen since with invention CCP will be removing the current BPO system, there will be no more Tech2 BPOs and hopfully they remove all the current ones as well. Of course, you realize, this is 100% wishful thinking and not at all what was "promised". What WAS said was T2 BPOs stay as they are, lottery is STILL the same means of aquiring a new T2 BPO (at the slower-than-a-snail rate they are dispensed) and all you get from invention is the CHANCE for a T2 BPCopy (out of a T1 BPCopy and loads of RP-costing items, and then some other stuff), copy that's not even as high-count or high-ME/PE as the original. In other words, burn RPs to get stuff that maybe allows you to get limited runs of T2 items, while lowering your chance to get any new T2 BPOs, if/when they get released. Yeah, helluva' tradeoff, if you ask me... NOT. _____ -sig- This is my only char. These are my skills Always question everything, including yourself
000Hunter000 Gallente Leviathan Corperation LTD	Posted - 2006.10.30 17:55:00 - [20] prods ccp, i'm ready for my T2 bpo now guys 200k LP gotta be worth something, hell i even did some R&D missions. Banner will be updated shortly
Primaxin Gallente Harbingers of Sarrow	Posted - 2006.10.30 18:30:00 - [21] The T2 mods in highest demand now, such as cap recharger 2's, have an astronomical profit margin. I think I calculated it recently at 24000%, or something like that. Unless I'm very much mistaken, those margins will come down significantly. Production costs are not an issue for modules with such high profit margins. This could be wrong if the "invention" process turns out to be too cumbersome or unwieldly. Only way we will know for sure is to see how it works after Kali comes out. I, for one, will trade RP's for invention-related stuff IF it makes economic sense. For example, if I can trade 1-2K RP's for part of what I need to get a BPC for a few cap recharger 2's, even if the price goes down to 15M, it would still be worth it, IMO.
Frezik Dirty Deeds Done Dirt Cheap	Posted - 2006.10.30 18:40:00 - [22] The best profit margins may well switch from the BPO holders to the moon miners. This is something we should all be happy about. No matter how much effort or isk you put into it, it's unlikely you could break into the t2 market as it stands now (except, perhaps, for modules with little use, like 50mm plates). If you want to break into the POS production market, you can go find a good moon to mine, or get a contract to buy and sell moon minerals and reactions. If you want to mine a moon and can't find a good one, you can always attack someone else's. It might not be easy, but at least it's not a completely closed market like t2 currently is. As for the prices of t2 items, they will almost certainly go down for products that currently have high margins. Even if the cost of manufacturing doubles, high margin items (e.g. HACs) will still drop because of so many new people entering the market. The margins will no longer be as good, though I don't think they'll drop as far as the t1 market (where the margins are basically non-existent).
Plutoinum German Cyberdome Corp Veritas Immortalis	Posted - 2006.10.30 19:21:00 - [23] Edited by: Plutoinum on 30/10/2006 19:30:18 Originally by: Akita T In other words, burn RPs to get stuff that maybe allows you to get limited runs of T2 items, while lowering your chance to get any new T2 BPOs, if/when they get released. Yeah, helluva' tradeoff, if you ask me... NOT. Good point. If that happens, CCP needs to lower the rp costs for invention, otherwise it would be useless.Actually spending the points for invention needs to be a lot more rewarding on average than just sitting and waiting for a bpo. ( The system smells like an idea to sell more accounts anyway. CCP knows that some people run alt-accounts just to collect RP ... and for invention, even more people might do it. Can't say that I'm very pleased that CCP promotes this way to buy yourself into the tech-2 buisiness ... /edit: They should have left RP out of it and just reward effort/work in invention imho. )
Paigan Amarr Katsu Corporation	Posted - 2006.10.30 19:53:00 - [24] If T2 prices are AT LAST determined by the amount of production material, then T2 FINALLY makes sense in eve. I have no problem paying 50mil for ship that has a "theoretical" worth of only 17mil, because of the huge supply chain behind it. This is something that CAN be changed by ingame methods. I.e. alliances fighting for territories to get more supply. T2 monopole as it now is is something can CAN'T be changed through ingame methods, because it is limited TECHNICALLY by the seeding amount of BPOs. I see no problem if the T2 prices stay a "little" high, if the cause is ingame related and not technical related. -- This game is still in beta stage
Patch86 Di-Tron Heavy Industries	Posted - 2006.10.30 20:31:00 - [25] Luckily, moon minerals are pretty far from limited. Not easy to get at, maybe, but theres certainly plenty to go around. And it'll finally make T2 production a resource to be fought over- if the controlling factor is who has the moon minerals, valuable moons will become a valuable strategic resource. It may also see a rejuvenation in POS ownership. Until now, the market for moon minerals has been pretty slow, what with most T2 BPO owners having their own steady supply already. Running a POS production chain will finally be a profession worth doing. Side effect of that, of course, is more isk sink from POS fuels (woo!) as well as a more demanding Ice market (making ice more valuable to mine = worth the hassle of mining it = more woo!). Invention is the messiah -----------------------------------------------
Pick Me	Posted - 2006.10.31 05:40:00 - [26] Originally by: Patch86 Invention is the messiah Amen Now can I have a bpo?
violator2k5 Caldari	Posted - 2006.10.31 07:40:00 - [27] is it me or have you guys not noticed that certain t2 bpo holders have pulled their items off of the market in preperation for this :/ not gonna say more then that but tbh im expecting those items to come back out at a much higher price then what was previously charged due to this.
Rick Dentill Lynx Frontier Inc. Ascendant Frontier	Posted - 2006.10.31 08:14:00 - [28] I imagine that people will focus invention on particular areas of the t2 component market. T2 BPOs currently fall into several broad areas: Uber items - the best HAC bpos, cap rech II etc the ones you can charge what you want and people buy. Good items - Ones with a high mark up, good profit but either limited production or high build cost. Better than t1 - Lots of bpos will make a good profit margin but not insane. Marginal - There are many bpos which make stuff people don't use. Micro this and that etc. I think the focus of invention will be on the main items i.e. ships, cap rechargers, guns, things like that, so the system is likely to be skewed that way. It also depends on the % chance of failure I guess and the cost of that too. Remember also that invention bpcs will be very inefficient, so if the price of components goes up too high I think people won't bother with it. _______
Patch86 Di-Tron Heavy Industries	Posted - 2006.10.31 09:39:00 - [29] Originally by: Rick Dentill I imagine that people will focus invention on particular areas of the t2 component market. T2 BPOs currently fall into several broad areas: Uber items - the best HAC bpos, cap rech II etc the ones you can charge what you want and people buy. Good items - Ones with a high mark up, good profit but either limited production or high build cost. Better than t1 - Lots of bpos will make a good profit margin but not insane. Marginal - There are many bpos which make stuff people don't use. Micro this and that etc. I think the focus of invention will be on the main items i.e. ships, cap rechargers, guns, things like that, so the system is likely to be skewed that way. It also depends on the % chance of failure I guess and the cost of that too. Remember also that invention bpcs will be very inefficient, so if the price of components goes up too high I think people won't bother with it. With any luck, the prices should be selfe regulating. Those prices that rise sky high will suddenly be the focus of invention (both for private use and resellers wanting a piece of the profit margin). With any luck that'll keep most prices reasonable. -----------------------------------------------
Blighter	Posted - 2006.10.31 09:44:00 - [30] Originally by: Azrael Bierce I honestly don't see invention reducing prices much unless the items you buy with RPs are hella cheap. You'll get a few people doing it, but by and large I'd expect most people to sit on their RPs and not spend them on invention. Why? Because by spending your RPs you are giving up your chance of getting a BPO. That chance is near/at 0 now, but there is always the chance of new seeds. No RPs = no possibility of winning at all. The smaller manufacturers that never bothered with research, the combat pilots that get a couple of low grade agents so they can invent their own replacement ships, those I can see making use of this. The hardcore researchers with millions of RPs that have been grinding out points waiting for that hulk bpo... I just don't see them changing course for a temporary gain. Yeah, but that will get offset by people getting RP hardcore. I mean, every account has 3 character slots. Not much work to skill up a RnD character and get the standings. Caldari and missiles for missions, cosmos missions also provide standings. Or the wealthy can just buy RnD ready characters. SO with some time and grinding, you can be getting RP from 18 agents a day.

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