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Jamius	Posted - 2007.03.08 16:31:00 - [31] Originally by: Polly Math i dont see why a mission runner would bother with lowsec if the chances of getting probed down are 100%. you can use a scout for gate camps, you can have guards in the belts, what could a missionrunner do to protect himself from beeing ganked while having a ton of npc aggro on him? pirates got belts and gates for free buffet, should be enough imo. Trying to run a mission and watch out for pirates at the same time is indeed difficult for most people. If it's a deadspace with a jump in gate then it's not so bad. Just keep a close eye on your scanner and stay away from the jump in point. Also, many deadspaces have clouds and other items that de-cloak ships when they jump in so that again makes it very easy to escape. A pirate generally will not know what mission your running so in this respect the mission runner has an advantage they should be able to use to stay pretty safe. Most pirates will be hoping to take advantage of the fact the mission runners think they are safe. Like most pirating, with a little care, you are very very hard to catch. Just DO NOT expect the game to automatically protect you with no effort on your part to stay safe - that's what I fear many people want. NEVER I SAY
Neon Genesis Gallente The Landed Gentry	Posted - 2007.03.08 16:51:00 - [32] Originally by: FooB2 ->BRING BACK 2004<- i yearn for the days when you could MWD bug a scorps shields and you had to click a button to switch between your hi/mid/lowslot mods. when battleships were worth something and people frequented lowsec like you wouldnt believe. They used to bring their BS to the belts and I was happy
kill0rbunny Chimera Intelligence Agency	Posted - 2007.03.08 19:48:00 - [33] Originally by: Polly Math i dont see why a mission runner would bother with lowsec if the chances of getting probed down are 100%. you can use a scout for gate camps, you can have guards in the belts, what could a missionrunner do to protect himself from beeing ganked while having a ton of npc aggro on him? pirates got belts and gates for free buffet, should be enough imo. Place a scout at the mission entrance gate cloaked and kill the scrambling frigs first. Omg, that was a hard bit of brainwork, my head aches, i need to take a rest. Probing mission runners is not that hard. No, Astrometrics Level 1 is not enough to do it. End of Story Killboard
Polly Math Caldari Omega Consulting	Posted - 2007.03.08 21:54:00 - [34] Originally by: kill0rbunny Originally by: Polly Math i dont see why a mission runner would bother with lowsec if the chances of getting probed down are 100%. you can use a scout for gate camps, you can have guards in the belts, what could a missionrunner do to protect himself from beeing ganked while having a ton of npc aggro on him? pirates got belts and gates for free buffet, should be enough imo. Place a scout at the mission entrance gate cloaked and kill the scrambling frigs first. Omg, that was a hard bit of brainwork, my head aches, i need to take a rest. Probing mission runners is not that hard. No, Astrometrics Level 1 is not enough to do it. End of Story erm, not only do you need an alt, you also need a 2nd computer/account?
Christopher Dalran Gallente Deadly Alliance	Posted - 2007.03.08 23:00:00 - [35] Mission runners are fighting the mission rats and because of the nature of the AI they WILL NOT SWITCH TARGETS. Scanning down a mission runner is basically a 100% guaranteed free kill as he must tank the entire mission (when more than one ship enters most missions the game responds by causing all rats to agro the initial agressor, anyone that uses drones knows about this as drones are considered as another entity and trigger this response) while the attacked does not have to worry as NONE of the rats will aggress his until his target is dead (again because they dont switch targets). If the AI is ever changed to cause rats to attack new arrivals then i will support scanning mission runners but untill the system is not stacked heavily against the mission runner giving him almoast 0 chance to escape i will have to continue to suppot CCP's latest action (even if it does mean less loot). ------------------------------- C.D's Formula for success ------------------------------- Credit Card = Game Time Card Gametime Card = ISK Therefore Credit Card = ISK.
Captain Jaikken Caldari	Posted - 2007.03.09 00:20:00 - [36] Probing mission runners is a free no risk kill on an expensively fitted ship. It should NOT be easy.
heheheh	Posted - 2007.03.09 01:13:00 - [37] Quote: The only steady income for low sec pirates are mission people lol seems not in your case, seriously, try to fight someone that can fight back.
Pax Althaleen Amarr	Posted - 2007.03.09 01:33:00 - [38] Originally by: Jayson Lee I would love to see a change back to the old way, or if the current system stays, give mission runners a way to detect if they are being scanned and make it easier for pirates to scan us down. To remain relatively safe while Missioning in Low Sec... 1) Upon entering System, get on the Missions as much as You can so You can set Your Safespots and Deep Safespots (DSS = Off the Eliptic) in and around that System. With Missions given to You by the same Agent in Satellite Systems, get on those as fast as possible too so that You can set SSs and DSSs in the satellite Systems around Your Main Low-sec area of Operations. 2) Run a PvP setup versus a PvE setup. This may be difficult to some degree but with some Innovative thinking you'll fill the holes in Your setup pretty quickly. It has been my experience so far that NPCs can fall even quicker to a PvP setup as opposed to a PvE setup. Note: The thirteenth day of the Trial was the last time I fitted a PvE setup Myself. 3) Always have Your Ship Scanner out and take Scans AT LEAST every 2 Minutes if there are Baddies in System (Right-click show Info in Local). To do this effectively You need to know what Your enemy is using against You. These would be namely high-end skills in Astrometrics Triangulation and Pinpointing along with the ability to deploy Scan Probes. While You won't be deploying Probes while Mission running, what I'm more getting at is that You need to have similar skills to those that are hunting You to combat them. That said - If Your Skills are greater than those Hunting You, then even better. Know Your enemy if you Intend to counter them, and by having the same skills or better, You'll know how it is that they're able to scan You out. Knowing the Hunter's methods can only be advantageous to remaining safe in Low-sec if You get My meaning... 4) Have "Probes and Drones" plus "Ships" (AT THE LEAST) set as Your selection criteria in Your Ship's Scanner and when Scanning look at ALL the results. Additionally, have Your selections in the Scanner set to be listed by distance closest to You. Even though You will not likely see a distance marker on Your Hunters (If any), TQ will have to set them in the Scanned list based on the distance to You at any rate. This means that as they move around trying to Scan You down, You can relatively see it in Your Scanner as they'll move up and down in the List, signifying to You that they're either getting closer or farther away from You. (EG. We were Missioning in a Low Sec system that We usually patrol, and We were into the Second Gate of three. I did a Scan (As Local had started to fill up) and the Scanner showed Me the Wrecks and Debris We'd left behind in the first Deadspace. We went on to destroy our Targets in the Second Deadspace, and I did a second Scan less than five minutes later. It showed Us the following. The Wrecks and Debris We had Scanned earlier were still listed as being there behind Us but now there were 2 Player Ships mixed in with those results. This told Us one thing and one thing only - We HAD been Probed out and they WERE moving towards Us by travelling to the second gate. I put the word out on COMMs and We Warped out, effectively making that Deadspace disappear once We'd warped out of It to a DSS.) Note: Warping to Station in Low-sec can get you camped in Station pretty fast, especially if the Hunters REALLY want to kill you. That said a Warp out to a SS(s) or a DSS(s) is likely the best bet to accomplishing the Mission as You won't get camped in Station and now the Hunters will have to scan You down again making the job for them tedious. Then cycle through those SSs and DSSs as this is the crux. Create enough tedium in Your Hunters and they'll eventually seek easier less aware prey, elsewhere. 5) Once You arrive in a Deadspace, treat the Warp-in beacon as if it is the plague. DO NOT go near it at all after that unless you have to get near to it to gather loot or wreckage for salvage. Even then, only do so with an eye on Your Scanner and another on Local every couple of minutes due to the fact that You need to be able to see those results as fast as possible to be able to get out in time if being Probed out. I have some "other" methods that I also use to remain "relatively" safe while Missioning in Low-sec, but with that said, I shouldn't post them here for obvious reasons... For the "other" Methods I use, EVEMail Me ingame and We can hook up in a Private chat where I can detail to to You more about it if You'd like. Pax Althaleen Holder - House Althaleen
Linerra Tedora Amarr The Ninja Coalition Phobos Alliance	Posted - 2007.03.09 03:16:00 - [39] Originally by: Damien Smith I used to love probing. I'd even go as far as calling it a profession. Now though it's something I do occasionally on an alt if I'm really pestered to do it. It's just not fun to drop a single probe and scan, scan, scan until you get a result. The old system rewarded skill and perseverence, not skillpoints. Time was your biggest enemy in the old system, not magical dice. Great plan though, screw the old school probers and turn probing into an alts job, the noobs need the entire system changing so they can do exploration without putting any skill into it whatsoever. uhm where did you find that noobs get exploration easily? it actually requires lots of skills to just be able to do it, and also requires lots of knowledge and time if you want to find the more difficult exploration sites...
Damien Smith Turbulent	Posted - 2007.03.09 05:03:00 - [40] Originally by: Linerra Tedora uhm where did you find that noobs get exploration easily? it actually requires lots of skills to just be able to do it, and also requires lots of knowledge and time if you want to find the more difficult exploration sites... Compared to the old system the new one IS easy. Do you have to drop 3 probes, all within range of the target and in a triangle aropund them to get a result? Do you have to do it with probes that don't scan in a sphere? Do you have to do it without that spiffy new system map? How about having to start off with the largest probe possible and have to scan 3 times to get results that may or may not be in a position to drop a probe on the good side of an off plane missioner without a warpable object to make the 3rd point of a triangle at? How about having probes with ridiculously small scan areas? 3au snoops had 1.5au horizontal range, 12au fathoms had 6au range, etc, and pathetic vertical range, meaning lots and lots of rescans and bookmark drops to get your result in vertical range of a target. Skillpoints were meaningless back then apart from giving you access to the longer range probes. The player skill was all about probe placement and working out what YOU messed up with to not get a result. See that was the best thing about it; if you got no result, it was because YOU messed up, not that some magic dice said "sorry dude, no result today". The new system is so simple a noob with a bought covert alt can do it. I still probe people out and so do some of my corpmates, but now it's just a formality to get through to get to the mission runner, not a challenging game of cat and mouse and a race against time. You're just playing the law of averages and you know that given enough scans, you will get a result. ----- My sparkly tinfoil hat is extremely distracting, and makes my eyes bleed. -Conuion Meow ([email protected]) Join channel 'Turby' or die! (bring pie)

Mr Jay Pre-nerfed Tactics	Posted - 2007.03.09 11:30:00 - [41] Originally by: heheheh Quote: The only steady income for low sec pirates are mission people lol seems not in your case, seriously, try to fight someone that can fight back. Mission runners can't fight back? But how do they, if it's a kill mission, kill stuff? Absolute Evil pwned my sig =(
FooB2 Caldari Northern Intelligence Artificial Intelligence.	Posted - 2007.03.09 16:46:00 - [42] BY THE WILL OF THE MIIIIIIIIIND Snip Funny sig but not really appropriate for the eve-o forums - hutch Dont force me to make a Derek sig. - FooB
Katarina Hetiako Republic Military School	Posted - 2007.03.09 17:05:00 - [43] @ this thread... got anything else you want to whine about... maybe spend less time whining and more time probing and you'll get lucky, huh? Yup, I'm an alt... if only you could see my main... he's so strong and tough!
Podruski Reflex.	Posted - 2007.03.11 01:12:00 - [44] Edited by: Podruski on 11/03/2007 01:09:06 Edited by: Podruski on 11/03/2007 01:08:32 The probability of getting them within the range of the probe, should be.. hmm, 100 fking percent? They know the risk of jumping into low sec space, just like every other ship. It shouldn't be safe to them and nobody else. If were not going to fix the probe issue, then give me invulnerable safespots. Imagine a 5% chance of scanning me 1 AU from you with over 3 months of training in probes. Lets see how many people come ***ing. The fact is that this flaw only affects pirates. Nowhere else is there an issue with scanning. Belt pirating as a profession isn't possible. The only thing in belts of low sec, is bait for 30 man fleet nextdoor (2006-07 PVP Tactic of the Year), or some noob npcing in his drake. Lets even up the professions.... Not to mention, if you follow the flow of money: Flow of Money Picture didnt work :\ Podruski
FooB2 Caldari Northern Intelligence Artificial Intelligence.	Posted - 2007.03.11 01:20:00 - [45] BRING ABCK 2004 4ewg\ Snip Funny sig but not really appropriate for the eve-o forums - hutch Dont force me to make a Derek sig. - FooB
Humpalot	Posted - 2007.03.11 01:39:00 - [46] Originally by: Damien Smith You're just playing the law of averages and you know that given enough scans, you will get a result. Maybe I am missing something here and/or my math is shoddy. Admittedly I do not probe down ships but from what I have read in this thread I will go with the following (I'm sure I do not have to ask but feel free to point out where I am in error): Max skills: Snoop Probe = 26 second scan Chance to get a "hit" with the probe: 3% So, take three people and drop some snoops. 9% chance of getting a hit. Do it 6 times and you have a 54% chance of getting a hit (call it 50/50 for convenience). Total scan time is 2.6 minutes. Heck, call it 4 minutes after dealing with time for players to mash buttons. So, in 4 minutes you have a better than one in two chance to nail a mission runner? And you are complaining about what? Probe prices maybe? You know full well if you nail a solo L4 missioner they will have T2 or better mods on and chances are excellent you will recoup your probe losses easily. Maybe I am missing something but for my money probing out missioners is too easy.
FooB2 Caldari Northern Intelligence Artificial Intelligence.	Posted - 2007.03.11 01:41:00 - [47] Originally by: Humpalot Originally by: Damien Smith You're just playing the law of averages and you know that given enough scans, you will get a result. Maybe I am missing something here and/or my math is shoddy. Admittedly I do not probe down ships but from what I have read in this thread I will go with the following (I'm sure I do not have to ask but feel free to point out where I am in error): Max skills: Snoop Probe = 26 second scan Chance to get a "hit" with the probe: 3% So, take three people and drop some snoops. 9% chance of getting a hit. Do it 6 times and you have a 54% chance of getting a hit (call it 50/50 for convenience). Total scan time is 2.6 minutes. Heck, call it 4 minutes after dealing with time for players to mash buttons. So, in 4 minutes you have a better than one in two chance to nail a mission runner? And you are complaining about what? Probe prices maybe? You know full well if you nail a solo L4 missioner they will have T2 or better mods on and chances are excellent you will recoup your probe losses easily. Maybe I am missing something but for my money probing out missioners is too easy. AR RYOUF CUKING INSAEN>? Snip Funny sig but not really appropriate for the eve-o forums - hutch Dont force me to make a Derek sig. - FooB
Podruski Reflex.	Posted - 2007.03.11 02:04:00 - [48] Originally by: Humpalot Originally by: Damien Smith You're just playing the law of averages and you know that given enough scans, you will get a result. Maybe I am missing something here and/or my math is shoddy. Admittedly I do not probe down ships but from what I have read in this thread I will go with the following (I'm sure I do not have to ask but feel free to point out where I am in error): Max skills: Snoop Probe = 26 second scan Chance to get a "hit" with the probe: 3% So, take three people and drop some snoops. 9% chance of getting a hit. Do it 6 times and you have a 54% chance of getting a hit (call it 50/50 for convenience). Total scan time is 2.6 minutes. Heck, call it 4 minutes after dealing with time for players to mash buttons. So, in 4 minutes you have a better than one in two chance to nail a mission runner? And you are complaining about what? Probe prices maybe? You know full well if you nail a solo L4 missioner they will have T2 or better mods on and chances are excellent you will recoup your probe losses easily. Maybe I am missing something but for my money probing out missioners is too easy. Ok... unless your just plain idiotic, im gonna point out the obvious. Your chance doesnt increase each time you scan. Say hypothetically that you actually get 3 coverts with max skills, and probes at the same spot...hahahahahahahh. You still have a 9% chance on each scan. So to answer your question, yes, your math is shoddy. And so is your post, find a brick wall and apply yourself to it.
Goberth Ludwig The Establishment Establishment	Posted - 2007.03.11 02:36:00 - [49] Whiner - Gob
Jex Jast Go for the booty	Posted - 2007.03.11 03:17:00 - [50] Quote: UN-nerf probes I believe the proper terminology is "denerf". ----------

Termina	Posted - 2007.03.11 03:52:00 - [51] It's a bit of a pain in the ass, but I have a cov-ops with two prob rigs and all scan related skills =< 4... It usually takes me 20 mins on average to bust a mission. Sometimes I get them right away, sometimes not at all, but more often than not I get them. My advice, find a system with a lot of mission runners so you have a better chance of catching at least one of them. As to the nerf, I'm personally happy with the current system. If it were any easier mission runners would never come to low sec. They all seem so surprised and that's the way I like it :) But if you're trying to scan with your average ship with average scan skills don't waste your time on mission runners.
Xendie Celestial Apocalypse Insurgency	Posted - 2007.03.11 04:38:00 - [52] Originally by: Podruski Ok... unless your just plain idiotic, im gonna point out the obvious. Your chance doesnt increase each time you scan. Say hypothetically that you actually get 3 coverts with max skills, and probes at the same spot...hahahahahahahh. You still have a 9% chance on each scan. So to answer your question, yes, your math is shoddy. And so is your post, find a brick wall and apply yourself to it. actually i think that someone did the math on it and came out with a 3% chance so you wont have 9% only that each of them will have a 3% chance at max skills. damn silly by CCP to slaughter probing. now its only going to be a alt proffession. oh well, one more thing that ccp fubared this year and it has only started Originally by: "darth solo" bad men came, bad men didnt go home, bad men left containers.
Humpalot	Posted - 2007.03.11 05:21:00 - [53] Originally by: Podruski Ok... unless your just plain idiotic, im gonna point out the obvious. Your chance doesnt increase each time you scan. Say hypothetically that you actually get 3 coverts with max skills, and probes at the same spot...hahahahahahahh. You still have a 9% chance on each scan. So to answer your question, yes, your math is shoddy. And so is your post, find a brick wall and apply yourself to it. Thanks for he helpful slam. You are correct my math was bogus (as eventually you would get a 100% chance of success which cannot happen in this situation...even a million attempts could in theory produce no result). So I bothered to look it up and here is the deal. You need to turn the equation around. If there is a 3% chance of success there is a 97% chance of failure. Each attempt being independent from the others. So, for each try you would multiply .97 against itself over and over like the following: Three attempts = .97.97.97 = .9127 So for three attempts you have a 91.27% chance of failure and an 8.73% chance of success. For ten attempts by one person (4.3 minutes of time max skilled with ship boniis) they'd have a 26.25% chance of success. So, for one person spamming probed in 5 minutes (assuming max skills) they have a bit better than 1 in 4 chance of nailing the mission runner. Sounds pretty good to me for the pirates and you want BETTER? Seriously...sounds perfectly awful for the missioners. One out of every four trips someone looks for me I get attacked? For L4 missioners that generally means a battleship with at least T2 fittings if not better. I guarantee low sec missions are nowhere near valuable enough to lose a ship every 4 trips out. Not even every 10 or 20 compared to what you get in hi sec. And that is with just one person probing them out. Let's assume the "impossible" notion of a gang of three probers with max skills. If you do the math on ten tried each they'd net just shy of a 60% chance of a hit (59.899% to be exact). To nail juicy, T2/faction loaded mission ships I'd say that is a great set of odds for the pirates and well worthwhile money/timewise.
Bellum Eternus Gallente CRICE Corporation Lotka Volterra	Posted - 2007.03.11 07:06:00 - [54] Originally by: Termina It's a bit of a pain in the ass, but I have a cov-ops with two prob rigs and all scan related skills =< 4... It usually takes me 20 mins on average to bust a mission. Sometimes I get them right away, sometimes not at all, but more often than not I get them. My advice, find a system with a lot of mission runners so you have a better chance of catching at least one of them. As to the nerf, I'm personally happy with the current system. If it were any easier mission runners would never come to low sec. They all seem so surprised and that's the way I like it :) But if you're trying to scan with your average ship with average scan skills don't waste your time on mission runners. Go to a system that actually has mission runners, and also is low sec, so you can actually shoot them. Then sit around and see how many actually undock and run missions. If there's 20 in local, one, maybe (and that's a big maybe) two people will be running a mission. Then on top of that, find out of the single mission runner is within 4 au of a celestial object. If not, go back and dock, because recon probes are useless. If so, probe him out. Using regular scan probes works, but it's still not 100%. More like 40-50%. And then there's the range problem. Really poor. The concept of finding more than one mission runner within 4 au of each other, and yourself is next to impossible. At least when probing in a system where you can actually kill people (not in a .9 with 200+ mission morons). Life Begins at -10! FIX RECON PROBES
Xendie Celestial Apocalypse Insurgency	Posted - 2007.03.11 07:26:00 - [55] since the "real" chance of succes on each scan is 3% you dont get 9% chance by doing 3 scans as the scans do not "stack" so to speak. each scan gives you a 3 % chance and then when you do the next you still only have 3% chance. Originally by: "darth solo" bad men came, bad men didnt go home, bad men left containers.
Termina	Posted - 2007.03.11 10:55:00 - [56] Edited by: Termina on 11/03/2007 10:54:00 I bust half my mission runners with 10 AU probes. It's far from impossible. As for the math probability thing.... I believe you use a Binomial distribution to solve the actual % chance of busting a mission over a given number of yes/no trials. It's been about 6 years since I actually had to solve a Binomial distrubution, but I think given a 3% probabilty over 6 trials the chance of gettting at least 1 positive result is around 16.702...% Why did I pick 6? Because quite often if you scan a mission you will be scanning for 6 objects in the deadspace pocket. 16.7 sounds a bit high to me, so I really think the chance of picking something out of a mission is probably in the 1-2% range per object in the mission. I think most of the numbers people throw out are just guesses. All I know is that I use both 10 and 5 au probes depending on the situtation and I can bust most missions in less than 20 minutes... which really isn't that bad considering how well some mission runners are fit. Oh one other thing... I think people often forget you can run more than one probe at a time... hint hint.
Damien Smith Turbulent	Posted - 2007.03.11 12:38:00 - [57] I don't know about everyone else, but the chance of finding someone is irrelevant to me. I don't care if I get a result on every scan, or it takes 50,000 tries. I really don't want CNR flying mission runners falling in my lap once a minute, because if I wanted free and easy isk I'd be running missions wouldn't I? My problem is that regardless of how weighted the chance is in your favour, it's still chance based. Nothing I can physically do besides overlapping probes will give me any more chance of finding someone, and we had to do that x3 in the old system anyway. I'd like a system where it takes me a massive time investment to find someone. A system whereby you learned through trial and error. I'd like it to be back to where only those who dedicated their time to learn could competently find people. A system whereby a skilled covert pilot was more of an asset to a pvp corp than the most 1337 of battleship pilots. That system is dead and coverts are now just alts that have been skillpoint grinded. As far as I'm concerned, as far as fun gameplay probing is dead. It's now just a means to an end and is as boring as gatecamping. It's just something you do in order to get loot. ----- My sparkly tinfoil hat is extremely distracting, and makes my eyes bleed. -Conuion Meow ([email protected]) Join channel 'Turby' or die! (bring pie) Actually... no, it was teh sig. I'm wearing tinfoil goggles already. -Teh Meow
Humpalot	Posted - 2007.03.11 12:51:00 - [58] Edited by: Humpalot on 11/03/2007 12:51:11 Originally by: Xendie since the "real" chance of succes on each scan is 3% you dont get 9% chance by doing 3 scans as the scans do not "stack" so to speak. each scan gives you a 3 % chance and then when you do the next you still only have 3% chance. Yes and no. As each "roll" of the CCP dice happens you have a 3% chance of success regradless of what happened on previous rolls. In probability these events are called independent. However, you can calculate the probability that a given event will occur. Say you roll a 6 sided die and want to know your chances that a "1" will show up. Simple enough, on one roll there is a 1/6 (or .167 or 16.7%) chance that a "1" will show. Now, if I asked you to roll that die 10 times you would expect the chances that a "1" will show at least once over the course of those rolls to increase and it does (83.9% chance that at least one out of 10 die rolls will be a "1"). If it makes it easier consider a million die rolls. You can see you would have to be staggeringly unlucky to never have a "1" show. Originally by: Termina As for the math probability thing.... I believe you use a Binomial distribution to solve the actual % chance of busting a mission over a given number of yes/no trials. I do not know about binomial distributions but I double checked my math with a math guru I know and the calculations I showed above is how you'd go about this particular problem. For all I know that is a binomial distribution but whatever. Interesting notion that your scan roll has a chance to hit on multiple objects in the mission area. Certainly changes thinking on it.
JonLuc McPew	Posted - 2007.03.11 14:56:00 - [59] Edited by: JonLuc McPew on 11/03/2007 14:55:18 Quote: Quote:un-nerf probes You people seem to have VERY short memories.
Manheart	Posted - 2007.03.11 15:05:00 - [60] I love the new probes and as long as you have good skills you can bust deadspace amd misions runner fairly quick, just like me :) however I bet you have rubbish skills and need to do some more learn yet



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