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Invention Success since Rev 2

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Author	Thread Statistics \| Show CCP posts - 2 post(s)
St Devil Caldari Defcon One Phalanx Alliance	Posted - 2007.06.28 22:23:00 - [31] @Meau Can you send me the formula you use? I will update my sheet ;-) Anyway, I will wait some more days before starting any new invention jobs. Even if I can be unlucky, I still think there could be some bugs roaming around the invention code. Obviously, I'm not the only one to think that something as changed. Personally, I don't think it's in revelation II but in the patch 2 weeks ago. StD
Meau	Posted - 2007.06.28 22:34:00 - [32] Everyones formulaes slowly converge, so no, no need i guess ;P. Biggest difference between my and your numbers is that base items have meta level 0. And to all the people stating there was a change, yes, could be, but a threads like this sprout after every patch, so please understand the scepticism. After any patch, with no change to invention whatsoever, someone is bound to be extremely unlucky, posts here, everybody else whos unlucky reads the post and agrees, while others do normally not bother to read or post. For me, personally, doing 60+ invention jobs a week, i couldnt say that, statistics too low so far.
Elisa Day Koshaku Interstellar Starbase Syndicate	Posted - 2007.06.28 22:41:00 - [33] As someone who does 40 invention jobs per day, from my perspective the success chance has gone up quite a bit the past week, but since Chronotis said nothing's changed, this just shows that even my track record of over a THOUSAND invention runs is not enough to accurately predict the future. Saying something has changed for good or for bad with just a handful of tries is just silly.

CCP Chronotis	Posted - 2007.06.28 22:43:00 - [34] Nothing has changed at all with decryptors either, the only thing that changed was a boost when we increased the supply of datacores lowering their price. Just to be sure,I checked right back for the last 500 jobs for some of you and you had the same chance then as now.

OctavianS Synet Research and Manufacturing INVICTUS.	Posted - 2007.06.28 23:19:00 - [35] Fair enough. Thank you for all your imput everyone. I guess i better get back to it, and hope for better luck. Thank you for your time and help Chronotis. Octavian
Miranda Duvall Gallente OPM Holdings	Posted - 2007.06.28 23:29:00 - [36] Didnt i read somewhere in the patchnotes that CCP was looking at balancing metalevels? or was it just stats on named items? This COULD have an effect, but I cant be sure right now. My Skills -Invention HowTo
Velice	Posted - 2007.06.29 06:28:00 - [37] i have done more than 200(16% success chance) invention jobs before patch and 90 after(8% success) and invention chance was changed. i dont use any meta-items only skills and decryptors.I cant say its just unlucky.
MotherMoon Huang Yinglong Namtz'aar k'in	Posted - 2007.06.29 06:32:00 - [38] sry above but it was just luck ----------------------------------- remember this name devs Jaron D someday I'll be the head of your art department! or at least hold the position of coffee/animation intern guy sign
Mighty Baz HUSARIA Curatores Veritatis Alliance	Posted - 2007.06.29 07:23:00 - [39] Originally by: CCP Chronotis Nothing ... It's not true...the material's requirements are much more than before patch. Secondly I really dont know how I can choose item which I m going to receiving, e.g. if I wanna invent arbitrator to curse I cannot do that. The first is pilgrim, permanently... The same situation is in zealot/sacrilage case...etc etc ______________________________________________ based on legendary XVII century Polish winged cavalry
Taurequis Waylander 01	Posted - 2007.06.29 09:42:00 - [40] Tbh, I think something has changed. With Max skills i've failed tons of jobs in the last week. It is really making me want to give up on invention. I don't get it. Taur
Tunak	Posted - 2007.06.29 16:04:00 - [41] i have done more than 200(16% success chance) invention jobs before patch and 90 after(8% success) and invention chance was changed. i dont use any meta-items only skills and decryptors.I cant say its just unlucky. --------------------------------------------------------- I think something has changed. With Max skills i've failed tons of jobs in the last week. It is really making me want to give up on invention. I don't get it. ---------------------------------------------------------- You display a fundamental lack of understanding of probability and independence then. Please go read up on it. http://mathforum.org/library/drmath/view/62167.html http://arnoldkling.com/apstats/coins.html http://www.fourmilab.ch/rpkp/experiments/statistics.html Say you have a 50% chance of success. That means that each job has a 50% chance of success. If you run 200 jobs each job has a 50% chance of success. This means that all 200 jobs can succeed since each job has a _chance_ of success. This also means that all 200 jobs can fail since each job has a _chance_ of failure. It is fully possible to never succeed at an invention job, ever. Highly highly unlikely but possible.
Lady Natacha Minmatar Water and Power	Posted - 2007.06.29 16:15:00 - [42] Originally by: Tunak Say you have a 50% chance of success. That means that each job has a 50% chance of success. If you run 200 jobs each job has a 50% chance of success. This means that all 200 jobs can succeed since each job has a _chance_ of success. This also means that all 200 jobs can fail since each job has a _chance_ of failure. It is fully possible to never succeed at an invention job, ever. Highly highly unlikely but possible. Sums it up exactly.
Kaaii Caldari Equilibrium LLC FATAL Alliance	Posted - 2007.06.29 16:30:00 - [43] Since rev II, ive yet to have a sucessful run... 38 attempts. Used good/bad/no decryptors Used good/avg/no meta lvl items With max revelant skills (5/5/5) Im thinking, broken... "Id rather fall beside 10 Lions, than stand with 1000 sheep.." Trading 101
Tunak	Posted - 2007.06.29 16:40:00 - [44] Originally by: Kaaii Since rev II, ive yet to have a sucessful run... 38 attempts. Used good/bad/no decryptors Used good/avg/no meta lvl items With max revelant skills (5/5/5) Im thinking, broken... Ok first off read my prior post. Second off I'm batting 71.428571 (repeating) success rate since Rev 2 with 4/4/4 skills, no decryptors, and what ever random metaitem I had lying around or not. Before Kali I was hovering right around 50% By your logic something has been changed for the worse since your batting 0% post Rev 2. Your logic also states that something has changed for the better since my success rate has increased. So which is it? Has the chance gone up or down?
Kaaii Caldari Equilibrium LLC FATAL Alliance	Posted - 2007.06.29 16:44:00 - [45] Id say both...depending on what you are trying for.. We are talking about apples and oranges w/o doing the exact same invention (items), yes? So, it is very possible that the items I've tried lately are not the same ones you are having sucess with, also yes? k "Id rather fall beside 10 Lions, than stand with 1000 sheep.." Trading 101
Tunak	Posted - 2007.06.29 17:00:00 - [46] Originally by: Kaaii Id say both...depending on what you are trying for.. We are talking about apples and oranges w/o doing the exact same invention (items), yes? So, it is very possible that the items I've tried lately are not the same ones you are having sucess with, also yes? k That's possible. Let's try this on for size. You think the devs specifically Chronotis is lying to your face?
Cromwellian	Posted - 2007.06.29 17:59:00 - [47] Mixing the statistics and logic is great fun! The Dev doesn't have to be lying. He could be mistaken by not having looked at all aspects of that formula with respect to all items. Doesn't sound like it but could happen if part of the formulas for certain items are based on a different value then other items. I've had it happen too many times where the IT network people say that something couldn't possible be wrong with the network and I'm sitting at our Help Desk with the phones ringing off the hook with users calling in with the exact same issue.
Tunak	Posted - 2007.06.29 18:52:00 - [48] That's a nice story but not really applicable. See in your story the problem is with the admins. The users can't get to their home directory so they think there is a problem and call. In this case the problem is with the users. They're making conclusions with no data. With invention there is no reason to think anything is wrong. First there was no mention in the patch notes of any change. Second a DEV posted that nothing had changed. Twice. This is a significant event in these forums. CCP is notorious for their bunker mentality. It's one thing they need to really work on. Third every single sample set that has been posted falls within normal. Go back and look at the posts after every patch. Either in this game or another. Everyone always thinks things change. Why is a %60 pre-patch success rate normal and a %40 post patch rate a stealth nerf? How do you know you weren't really lucky before the patch and %40 is closer to normal? They want the higher number. When they don't get the higher number they start crying. Even after a DEV posted twice and I posted a mathematical explination people still continues to post that it was broken. This happens in every game with every patch. For good or bad, likely bad, I decided to stand up and call these people out. I really am showing a higher success rate post patch so I would love it if these chicken littles were right. But I know they're not and at some point I'll have a streak of failures. This is how probabilty works.
Fergus Runkle Minmatar	Posted - 2007.06.29 21:44:00 - [49] Can I make a suggestion, when people talk about their success rates and failure rates can you specify if they are ship, module or ammo/drone jobs. It may take some of the confusion out of the thread and may help identify a problem if there is one. Personally I have not had time to do any invention since Rev 2.0 but one of my corp members has run 10-20 ship jobs and they have ALL failed. Thats quite unlikely (ok not impossible) and I am hearing similar stories from people I have spoken to, ship invention seems to be giving high failure rates since Rev 2. Module invention is OK, same as before, but ship invention is where there feels to be an issue.
Deja' Vu Super Secret Hot Chic's Hideout	Posted - 2007.06.30 03:15:00 - [50] Well i just popped in 5 ship jobs and got 2/5 success so its not bad imho.
luain	Posted - 2007.06.30 12:46:00 - [51] I would like to see an end to the inane comment from the game when an invention attempt is unsuccessful. They are unhelpful and do not contribute to our understanding of the process...I even had a too bad comment from a successful attempt
Ricdic Caldari Corporate Research And Production Pty Ltd Zzz	Posted - 2007.06.30 16:38:00 - [52] Originally by: CCP Chronotis Nothing has changed at all with decryptors either, the only thing that changed was a boost when we increased the supply of datacores lowering their price. Just to be sure,I checked right back for the last 500 jobs for some of you and you had the same chance then as now. In actual fact, I reckon something has changed. And not for the worse as people here are complaining. Since discovering a hidden secret last week, I have done 23 invention jobs. Partially on rigs, and the other part on modules. Off 3 rig attempts (using t1 equiv + installation guides+ I had 2 successes = 66.6% Off the other 20 module bpcs, I have had 15 successes, using Test Reports and no base module. This comes to about 75% success rate in this area. Obviously my test numbers are quite low, but the success has been extremely consistent over this past week, the complete opposite of before I found it (secret) where I was lucky to succeed 2/10 times on every set under the same conditions. Need Empire Research Slots. Click here
Trak Cranker Serenity Inc	Posted - 2007.06.30 18:01:00 - [53] Originally by: Ricdic Since discovering a hidden secret last week.. Spill the beans, man. :) Or a hint at least.. :)
Rhonda Sword Minmatar Sebiestor tribe	Posted - 2007.06.30 18:13:00 - [54] Edited by: Rhonda Sword on 30/06/2007 18:18:53 Congrats on your success and recent discovery Ricdic! I've had a bad run of luck lately myself, so I'm especially curious about this secret of yours. Is there any way you'd be willing to disclose it? If you have no intention of doing so, I'm left thinking you just wanted to make the rest of us jealous. Very naughty of you, if that's your intention. Either way, good luck with it, and I hope the numbers continue to support your theory. Could be nothing more than a winning streak, you know. ;) RS
Ker Ching	Posted - 2007.06.30 22:41:00 - [55] It's nice to see a post with dev responses instead of player speculation. I was just about to sell all my invention stuff, due to having ZERO successful jobs since the patch. I was averaging 20% success pre Rev 2. Now, I think I'll hold on to it for a while and see what happens. Originally by: Sahwoolo Etoophie Please stop posting threads. click
Ricdic Caldari Corporate Research And Production Pty Ltd Zzz	Posted - 2007.07.01 02:41:00 - [56] Ok the secret: There is an implant currently avaialble via LP (well 2 actually, of various levels), and when I plugged it in, I reckon it added a good 25-30% to my success rate. Like I said, my numbers are way too short to give any factual information, but I have personally noticed a major increase in success over this past week, which only started the second I plugged her in. If any of you need this implant, I should be able to provide them in-game from my agent (if you don't have access to it yourself). Just standard science related corporations (Duvolle Labs, etc) Need Empire Research Slots. Click here
Dal Thrax Nova Inc. Pride - Honor - Duty	Posted - 2007.07.01 04:38:00 - [57] Originally by: Taurequis Tbh, I think something has changed. With Max skills i've failed tons of jobs in the last week. It is really making me want to give up on invention. I don't get it. Taur Well from what I understand is this. There is some number (which the Dev who posted in this forum knows) which = success. That number has not changed. To make sure there was not a problem he pulled some of the posters invention jobs and checked the logs for what random number was generated for them. The random numbers in question indicated failure. If folks are having a wave of failures then the its either luck or a problem with the random number generator that CCP uses. As the Dev probably has access to aggregate reports on job type we can eliminate the possibility of a macro error in the generator (if success rates where halved across the board CCP would know about it). This does not eliminate the possibility that certain sets of circumstances related to certain players may cause a problem on the micro level for the random number generator. To detect this would require a professional statistician to analyze the invention data. So in short it's probably bad luck. Dal Originally by: Seleene It seems to me that 'independence' is a relative term these days, determined mainly by the size and number of your guns.
Dal Thrax Nova Inc. Pride - Honor - Duty	Posted - 2007.07.01 04:43:00 - [58] Originally by: Ricdic Originally by: CCP Chronotis Nothing has changed at all with decryptors either, the only thing that changed was a boost when we increased the supply of datacores lowering their price. Just to be sure,I checked right back for the last 500 jobs for some of you and you had the same chance then as now. In actual fact, I reckon something has changed. And not for the worse as people here are complaining. Since discovering a hidden secret last week, I have done 23 invention jobs. Partially on rigs, and the other part on modules. Off 3 rig attempts (using t1 equiv + installation guides+ I had 2 successes = 66.6% Off the other 20 module bpcs, I have had 15 successes, using Test Reports and no base module. This comes to about 75% success rate in this area. Obviously my test numbers are quite low, but the success has been extremely consistent over this past week, the complete opposite of before I found it (secret) where I was lucky to succeed 2/10 times on every set under the same conditions. Does secret relate to the level of ME/PE research that has been performed on a BPO (as that is the only possible additional variable). Dal Originally by: Seleene It seems to me that 'independence' is a relative term these days, determined mainly by the size and number of your guns.
Hohne Antares Fleet Yards SMASH Alliance	Posted - 2007.07.01 11:55:00 - [59] A vote of confidence in an item from a guy who can coincidentally sell it to you :p Never happened before. I'm thinking 3/5% based on their LP cost. And they should be much cheaper than they currently are (based on LP unless the value of LP is going to go way way up), so they're a great item to auction off for isk while you can ;) I sometimes do 10 jobs, get none, sometimes get 8, sometimes get 5... I can get a bunch in a row then have huge drought.. You really need to be looking at a sample of at least 100 before you make and judgements, and even then you're probably only looking at an accuarcy of 5-10% on what you real chance is. 1% accuracy you probably need 1000-1500 jobs. :o And it still won't tell you what you will get out of the next 10 jobs ;) Some things really annoy me though, the biggest thing atm is the 50% chance of each type of some items.... It really cuts into profit, and forces some T2 manufacturer who isn't actually making 'that much' profit, right down to the wire just because people are trying for the alternative version (which gets to keep an inflated price to an extent).
Ricdic Caldari Corporate Research And Production Pty Ltd Zzz	Posted - 2007.07.01 15:09:00 - [60] Originally by: Hohne A vote of confidence in an item from a guy who can coincidentally sell it to you :p If I was intent on selling only, would I have advised which corp offers it for LP's?? Simply put, I have plenty of LP's left, and don't mind grabbing a few of these plants for those who want them. I haven't even bothered accepting more than just 1 as it is. Need Empire Research Slots. Click here

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