| Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 :: one page |
| Author |
Thread Statistics | Show CCP posts - 2 post(s) |
Mary Magdalene
   |
Posted - 2007.06.27 13:15:00 -
[1]
Im just trying to find out if other people have had a noticable decrease in successfull invention jobs since Rev 2.
I tend to invent manticores, using installation guides and kestrels ect. Before the patch i was getting a average success rate, for example. i always installed just 2 invention jobs at a time, and sometimes both would fail , but then the next 2 jobs would always result in at least 1 success.
Basically from 30 - 50 % success rate.
Now since the patch , nothing on my side has changed, same skills, same decryptors ect. Absolutly nothing altered on my part.
Yet every single job has failed since the patch
5 straight fails in a row. I know it is chanced based ect, and maybe ive just been unlucky. But it does seem odd.
Ive stopped at the moment until i get a response from this thread. Just in case it is the patch ,.
How has it been for everyone else ?
|
Nap ViRii
|
Posted - 2007.06.27 14:10:00 -
[2]
hi Mary,
I've been spamming this question around as well. I was succesfully getting cerberus bpc's like 35-40% of the time, using "installation guide," t1 caracals and 5/5/5/ on encryption, starship eng, and mech. eng. until Rev II. I'm about 0/10 since that and wondering if something's been seriously tweaked or bugged. Honestly, CCP's been so good about releasing the maths behind game mechanics that invention seems like a black box kind of career. We don't even have figures on these new drafsman implants. . . CCP: please be more transparent about invention. At present, it seems to be a losing endeavor even with max skills and best quality decoders.
|
Mary Magdalene
|
Posted - 2007.06.27 14:18:00 -
[3]
thank you for responding, based on what we are both experiancing , it is starting to point towards an alteration in the last patch . I think im gonna stop inventing untill the new patch is out .
It will still be interesting to see if anymore people have had similar results .
|
Mr M
|
Posted - 2007.06.27 14:23:00 -
[4]
Same here, I invent modules and I used to succeed with 60% of my invention jobs before the patch, but now I'm down to 30%(-ish).
EVEgeek | EVE Tribune |
Velice
|
Posted - 2007.06.27 14:52:00 -
[5]
I think the chance be decreased by 100%. It will increase bpc cost on contracts.
Before patch i had 16% chance, after 7.5%
|
Trak Cranker
Serenity Inc
|
Posted - 2007.06.27 14:54:00 -
[6]
The number of tries don't quite sound large enough to support any conclusion - but something might be up, ofc.
Mary M and others - can't you post your exact number of tries and relevant modifiers?
5 straight fails on manticores does not seem extreemly strange, considering the %'s I have seen on ship invention. Bad yes, but nowhere near impossible.
But its still guesswork ofc.
|
Horb
F.R.E.E. Explorer
EVE Animal Control
|
Posted - 2007.06.27 14:58:00 -
[7]
I'm 0 for 9 on ships since the patch with max skills.
|
Mr M
|
Posted - 2007.06.27 15:41:00 -
[8]
I believe ships has a lower success rate than modules. I have 4/4/4 and use the tech 1 modules when I invent and get an average of 4/10 from modules after the last patch, but I've had less success with ships.
EVEgeek | EVE Tribune |
OctavianS
|
Posted - 2007.06.28 04:50:00 -
[9]
I have also noticed a severe drop in the sucess rate since Revelations 2.
I used to get the "You have a firm grasp of concept, but you need a fair bit of luck" (something like that), but now i keep geting the "You feel slightly out of your league" comment when i fail.
Yes I/my corp members have had a dramatic amounts of failed jobs recently. Would really help if CCP would have pointed it out unstead of us having to discover it ourselfs while wasting silly money (or was that their real plan?). 
|
LordKain
The Scope
|
Posted - 2007.06.28 06:19:00 -
[10]
the same situation, after the patch I ve invented nothing with the best decryptors. before patch my chance of ship inventing was moreless 50%.
|
Levestra
|
Posted - 2007.06.28 07:08:00 -
[11]
Same here. Since Rev 2, I've tried 5 seperate jobs, various modules and one ship of amarr and minmatar with all skills at 4 or 5. I've failed every single job. That's a really really bad luck stretch considering I would have normally succeeded on probably 2 jobs at least. Seeing so many other people with the same troubles, it makes me wonder what's up. I would like to think that the invention success chances didn't get reduced to make room for the implants that will "increase success chance"...
|
Anopheli
Pillowsoft
|
Posted - 2007.06.28 07:31:00 -
[12]
I noticed one massive dip about a week before Rev 2.0, where all my jobs, and those of my corpmates failed for several days. I think I blew about 50 datacores before getting fed up.
Anyway. I only invent modules and may have noticed a -slight- decrease. I'm getting 3-4 out of 7 runs succeeding right now with no Decryptor used. It used to be around a more steady 4.
|
Zasra
Crown Royal Mining Corp
|
Posted - 2007.06.28 11:37:00 -
[13]
Well that stinks, guess I'll put off experimenting with invention till some official reply comes.
The t2 market was finally stablizing, my guess is bob wasn't making enough money from their bpos so they nuked the success rate. Just another reason to cancel my account I suppose.
|
Trak Cranker
Serenity Inc
|
Posted - 2007.06.28 12:42:00 -
[14]
 Originally by: Zasra
The t2 market was finally stablizing, my guess is bob wasn't making enough money from their bpos so they nuked the success rate. Just another reason to cancel my account I suppose.
Can I have your invention stuff?
|
Zasra
Crown Royal Mining Corp
|
Posted - 2007.06.28 13:52:00 -
[15]
Originally by: Trak Cranker
Originally by: Zasra
...guess I'll put off experimenting with invention till some official reply comes.
Can I have your invention stuff?
I guess that part of my post was hard to understand for you? Moron.
|
Trak Cranker
Serenity Inc
|
Posted - 2007.06.28 14:02:00 -
[16]
Originally by: Zasra
Originally by: Trak Cranker
Originally by: Zasra
...guess I'll put off experimenting with invention till some official reply comes.
Can I have your invention stuff?
I guess that part of my post was hard to understand for you? Moron.
I understood that part just as well as I understood the childish reference to a BoB preference in CCP and the even more childish "threat" to cancel your account over it.
I take it the last word is your signature?
|
OctavianS
Synet Research and Manufacturing
INVICTUS.
|
Posted - 2007.06.28 16:31:00 -
[17]
I am no fan of BOB, but blaming everything on them i belive is equaly wrong.
I belive it is important to stay true to the topic and get as many confirmation or even rejections of the theory that invention success rate has been downgraded.
I hope CCP will take a moment to read this thread, and give us a sign of life, even if just a "Hello" (make us a feel a bit less ignored) 
|
Counterparty
|
Posted - 2007.06.28 17:08:00 -
[18]
O Great and Mighty Dev, we beseech thee to shine your countenance upon this humble thread. Hold our hands as we traverse the valley of improbability. Lead us unto the stars of peaceful assurance.
Praise be the Devs,
Amen |
|
CCP Chronotis
|
Posted - 2007.06.28 17:30:00 -
[19]
Nothing has changed formula wise and if it did we would tell you. As people have pointed out your dealing with probabilities, just because your success rate is 5/10 jobs one week does not infer a 50% base success chance. The actual probability could be 1% and you were just extraordinarily lucky those five times and get hit by the proverbial apple a lot.
The next time we may possibly revamp the invention system is Kali 3+ and beyond as we build up and enhance the system for tech 3.
|
|
Counterparty
|
Posted - 2007.06.28 17:56:00 -
[20]
That was unexpected. I was poking fun, but this could be a new sideline for me....
If anyone needs gold bars in a thread, send me isk and i'll pray for your thread too. |
Nicho Void
Gallente
Hyper-Nova
|
Posted - 2007.06.28 18:02:00 -
[21]
lmao.
Priceless.
---------------
|
Trak Cranker
Serenity Inc
|
Posted - 2007.06.28 18:18:00 -
[22]
Counterparty, you are officially the mascot of inventors now.
|
OctavianS
Synet Research and Manufacturing
INVICTUS.
|
Posted - 2007.06.28 18:22:00 -
[23]
Thank you for your repply Chronotis, the only reason why i am concerned it might have been / is otherwise is because, these are not just my invention results i am talking about. I have 2 other people in my corp doing invention as well, we though the odds of sucess droped because we usualy conduct 100+ invention tries per month. Its either been a real bad month for all of us, or something has changed.
Thank you for taking the time to adress our cencerns.
Octavian.
|
St Devil
Caldari
Defcon One
Phalanx Alliance
|
Posted - 2007.06.28 18:25:00 -
[24]
Originally by: CCP Chronotis
Nothing has changed formula wise and if it did we would tell you. As people have pointed out your dealing with probabilities, just because your success rate is 5/10 jobs one week does not infer a 50% base success chance. The actual probability could be 1% and you were just extraordinarily lucky those five times and get hit by the proverbial apple a lot.
Why can't you post the Formula? I'm getting discouraged because I had 17 jobs ending sadly one after the other and I don't know why, as the worse formula I can find gives me a 26% chance of success. With such a success ratio having 17 jobs that fails consecutively can only happen 1 time on 200.
At least can you have a look at this and just tell me "it's pure (un)luck" or "the formula used is completely wrong" or "you are so stupid, don't you know that these items can't be invented".
Thanks,
Originally by: St Devil
Ok. Here am I !!! The king of misfortune.
Here are my skills and decryptor:
Caldari Encryption Method: 3
Hydromagnetic Physics: 4
Quantum Physics: 3
Item used: Basic (meta=1)
Decryptor Used: Interface Alignment Chart (chance factor: 0.4)
Item invented (or more exactly: not invented): Large Shield Extender, Invulnerability Field, Heat Dissipation Field, Ballistic Deflection Field, Photon scattering Field.
I made 5 copies of 300 runs of each of these 5 Items.
One or two weeks ago I get the needed Datacore to launch 8 invention jobs (5 Large shield Extender and 3 Invulnerability Field). I get 2 Large shield Extender II BPC and 2 Invulnerability Field II BPC of 19runs each.
Then came the Patch and I started the remaining Invulnerability Shield BPC, both failed.
And then Revelation II was deployed and since than I have launch my 15 remaining jobs all of them failed.
I found a formula in this forum that gives me a 26% chance of success with my current skills and decryptor.
I try to find with this value what was my chance to get 17 consecutive failing jobs.
Chance = (1-26%)^17 = 0.6% !!!!!!
|
Trak Cranker
Serenity Inc
|
Posted - 2007.06.28 18:53:00 -
[25]
Edited by: Trak Cranker on 28/06/2007 18:52:59
Originally by: CCP Chronotis
Nothing has changed formula wise and if it did we would tell you.
Very good to know, Chronotis. That is a nice assurance really, and what I have missed most lately.
Any chance we could get a sort of hint in the skill descriptions on chance improvement pr level, as we do in basically all other areas?
Not to make the incention box totally transparent, but to at least make a little bit less gray?
|
Meau
|
Posted - 2007.06.28 18:53:00 -
[26]
@St devil
According to my data your chance of success is 0,47 times base chance.
If this base chance is assumed as 40% you end up with 18,8% chance. The chance to have 17 fails in a row is 2,9%.
Thus about 3 out 100 people trying invention will get 17 fails in a row right at the start. As you had already had runs before your failure streak, your chance is actually higher than 3%.
If the base chance, which is unknown would be 30%, you end up with 7,5% for 17 fails in a row. which is not low at all.
I personally experienced more than 30 fails in a row more than once, though my chance is overal measured to be 10,5%.
Could still be broken, or just statistics. Somebody is bound to have streaks like that seeing the sheer number of people doing invention.
|
OctavianS
Synet Research and Manufacturing
INVICTUS.
|
Posted - 2007.06.28 19:36:00 -
[27]
Trying to stay focused on the topic at hand and i wil not be throwing any percentile of sucess and junk around. But there has been a change to invention in one way or another. If not intentional by the Dev team, there might need to be some looking at the code.
To those of us that run hundreds of invention jobs per month, i can hoestly say, there is a sever drop in success rates. Now, if the invention formula has not changed, the next logical question is: Have the values of the decryptors changed? And if so, by how much?
Respectfuly: Octavian
|
Jifai
|
Posted - 2007.06.28 19:50:00 -
[28]
Good grief. How much hand holding do you need Octavian?? You already got a dev reply. Learn a little bit about uniform random distributions.
We run 180 invention jobs a week and this has been a very very good week for us. This week are seeing 50% more successes than expected.
Overall we expect losing streaks of 30+ jobs at least every month.
|
Braaage
Laborius Chapter
|
Posted - 2007.06.28 19:51:00 -
[29]
Originally by: Counterparty
That was unexpected. I was poking fun, but this could be a new sideline for me....
If anyone needs gold bars in a thread, send me isk and i'll pray for your thread too.
ROTFL 
BTW CCP aren't gonna tell us the formula.
|
OctavianS
Synet Research and Manufacturing
INVICTUS.
|
Posted - 2007.06.28 20:14:00 -
[30]
Dear Jifai, there is no need to be abrasive.
I did ask for people to support or contradict the theory of drop in invention success rates, you coming out of the wood work claming a very sucessfull month for your alliance is encouraging, but a more positive tone would be appreciated next time.
And as you can see there are plenty more other people who feel the same way i do. If there are more people out there who dissagree with the theory of success rate droping, please step forward and say so.
Cheers: Octavian
|
| |
|
| Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 :: one page |
| First page | Previous page | Next page | Last page |