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Thread Statistics | Show CCP posts - 7 post(s) |
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CCP Wrangler
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Posted - 2007.09.30 15:43:00 -
[1]
The good Doctor has once again written a long report, this time about ship production. He starts with an overview, continues with production, ship losses etc. and ends with an update on the mineral market as well as a bit about the upcoming Quarterly Economic Newsletter.
As usual it is filled with statistics and numbers, all in all a very interesting report on just what it is we've been doing in EVE all these years. Go ahead and read Econ Dev Blog no. 2 - Production of space ships by Dr.EyjoG, our own Economist!
Wrangler Community Manager EVE Online
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Braeriach
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Posted - 2007.09.30 16:05:00 -
[2]
I love these blogs.
great read, can't wait for the others in November.
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D Gelalder
Gallente Apraxia
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Posted - 2007.09.30 16:06:00 -
[3]
sweet, more graphs :D
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Caiman Graystock
The Caldari Confederation
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Posted - 2007.09.30 16:13:00 -
[4]
Love seeing the figures about how many ships, what ships and such are distributed through the game, awesome.
Currently there is about 80 trillion ISK in EVE
Win.
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Dal Thrax
Multiverse Corporation League of Abnormal Gentlemen
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Posted - 2007.09.30 16:27:00 -
[5]
I'm fairly sure that most ships sold in empire are NOT produced in low sec. Also I believe the good doctor errs as T2 ships can be produced in high sec (though I could be wrong on this).
Dal
Originally by: Seleene It seems to me that 'independence' is a relative term these days, determined mainly by the size and number of your guns.
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2007.09.30 16:36:00 -
[6]
Nice graphs, interesting read overall. A lot of useful numbers too.
But, as expected, some slight inaccuracies in the reasoning presented.
For starters, the Obelisk is the most popular not because it's nice, but because everybody already had Gallente Industrial trained up to L5 already for the Iteron V. Would any other race have had the best T1 hauler (instead of Gallente) and requiring L5 indusrial, that race's freighter would have been the most popular. The Obelisk itself is a pretty crappy ship with nothing spectacular about it. Given the choice, and T1 industrial not being an issue at all, you'd see the Charon as primary favorite with the Fenrir in second place.
In the ship losses section, the Raven losses are not representative of the ships people like to use in combat. They are the representation of how badly Ravens blow in PvP combat, getting wiped out by almost any other racial battleship in 1-vs-1 combat, and being the least useful in larger-scale combat. As yet another note, the numbers of Raven losses and the presence of Dominix in the top10 category has yet another reason : they are the ships of choice of suicide gankers, getting wiped out by CONCORD. Drake, Caracal and especially Kestrels share a similar fate, the number of them killed by CONCORD certainly outnumbers most other CONCORD ship kills by far, percentually speaking (total loss vs CONCORD loss).
And the last, but most important thing... REMOVING the tritanium cap right now would start a pretty nasty chain-reaction within the EVE economy, one that might lead to a huge crash in most lowends. The only reason why tritanium prices AREN'T spiking to 3.6 ISK directly right now is that people KNOW there's a pricecap at 3.6 ISK. Would they have the certainty that all cheap tritanium sources would be removed, I fully expect massive "pricefixing" operations on Tritanium, with prices climbing abruptly and on a very short notice. I strongly urge you to get into the market forum and discuss this issue in a special thread.
Really, please, DO create a thread there yourself, Dr.EyjoG... and just ASK people there something like "what is your opinion, what would happend if ALL top caps on lowend mineral prices (esp. tritanium and pyerite) would be rised significantly, or even removed altogether ?". Prepare for the deluge. _
[CNVTF] is recruiting | Char creation guide | Stack-nerfing explained |
Elaron
Jericho Fraction The Star Fraction
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Posted - 2007.09.30 16:59:00 -
[7]
Originally by: Akita T For starters, the Obelisk is the most popular not because it's nice, but because everybody already had Gallente Industrial trained up to L5 already for the Iteron V.
He said that...
Originally by: CCP Dr.EyjoG ...when it was introduced it was relatively easy for Gallente pilots to train their skill level to be able to fly the ship, hence it gained popularity fast...
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Kirja
R.u.S.H. Red Alliance
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Posted - 2007.09.30 17:02:00 -
[8]
Nice.
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Gnulpie
Minmatar Miner Tech
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Posted - 2007.09.30 17:02:00 -
[9]
Nice blog! Thanks.
I like this much more than the previous one.
Meanie though that we have to wait for the QEN, I am all curious now and waiting for it!
But the 40% profit in caracal production, that sounds quite a bit high.
Can we also have some eco-blog about t2 module production? That would be most interesting also! Thanks.
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Niccolado Starwalker
Shadow Templars
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Posted - 2007.09.30 17:09:00 -
[10]
Originally by: Caiman Graystock Currently there is about 80 trillion ISK in EVE
What I want to know is, how much of it comes from Chribba!
Good report though! Much more understandable this time to me, then the first report...
Originally by: Splagada you're on eve-o, just go for blunt insults and random crap, please!
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Anson Halleck
Lost Eden
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Posted - 2007.09.30 17:46:00 -
[11]
Very nice blog, thank you!
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Br0wn 0ps
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Posted - 2007.09.30 18:06:00 -
[12]
Quote: Currently tritanium is trading at 3.00 û 3.25 depending on region. Given the changes in supply and increased demand in the past months, and expectations for higher demand in the future we are expecting so see prices increase further in coming weeks. However, there is a game mechanics price cap of tritanium at about 3.6 ISK per unit. It is a strong recommendation on behalf of the chairman of the economic board that price of shuttles, and other items which create artificial price barriers, be increased or other measures taken in order to avoid price caps on the market for minerals (and any other market for that matter).
The paragraph that launched the purchase of a billion shuttles...
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2007.09.30 18:17:00 -
[13]
Originally by: Gnulpie Furthermode I fully agree that more caps (reproed shuttle = 3.60 isk for trit) on the minerals is not this good. And there won't be a crash in the other minerals because everyone will soon mine veld and nothing else and so the supply of the other minerals comes down and the price rises again.
Do you have any idea how much tritanium costs out in nullsec ? Eventually, expect to see similar prices in empire as you see right now in the 0.0 regions if tritanium price caps are removed. Well, of course, CCP could bounce up Veldspar asteroid respawn rates and seriously increase Veldspar units spawned in each highsec belt, then it wouldn't be quite so tragic, but still a serious upwards hike. Veldspar is already on the verge of becoming the most profitable empire ore to mine, it will soon become THE most profitable one, and won't stop rising as long as L4 mission-running can be significantly more profitable... so, what, say 25 mil ISK/hour from mining Veld with a maxed-out Hulk ? 30 mil ISK/hour ?
What would you say the new "reprocess from NPC-sold items" Tritanium should cost ? I'd say you'd need to hike it up AT LEAST to 6 ISK per unit or so before you eliminate any major chance of it acting like a pricecap... 15k ISK shuttles FTW. Make that 20k (8 ISK/unit), just to be safe. Or keep them like they are, just reduce the manufacture/refine amount. You'd have also rise the price (or reduce mineral needs/reprocess) of most other "tritanium only" or "lots of tritanium" items.
See where this is going ? _
[CNVTF] is recruiting | Char creation guide | Stack-nerfing explained |
Eldwinn
The Tierijev Compact Division of Eden
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Posted - 2007.09.30 18:40:00 -
[14]
Love these economic blogs.
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Trak Cranker
Serenity Inc
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Posted - 2007.09.30 19:15:00 -
[15]
One question: Is the trit used to make capital parts calculated into the trit used for ship production?
And if so what could be the reason for the rising gap between trit bought and trit used for ship production?
Increased outpost production? Increased addistions of other items such as rigs?
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Jakiri
GoonFleet GoonSwarm
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Posted - 2007.09.30 19:17:00 -
[16]
Edited by: Jakiri on 30/09/2007 19:23:46 Edited by: Jakiri on 30/09/2007 19:23:15 Edited by: Jakiri on 30/09/2007 19:21:29 As someone who engages in a majority of the forms of Eve money-making (ratting, mining, production, trading), I find this "report", and its predecessor, to be extremely worrying. Assuming that the dear doctor's evidence, anaylsis and conclusions are valid - which, given his occasional bizarre assertions, such as the claim that the value of trade in Eve has been increasing exponentially, is something I find most unwise in any case - they do not appear to be based around the concept of "does this make Eve more fun to play?"
My characters are more highly skilled than they were a few months ago, I have paid a greater initial investment since that time and am losing fewer ships, both in terms of absolute numbers and in isk value, in PvP - why is it harder to make money, and to play a game that I enjoy? Why is it that the insurance system ensures that when the value of lowends increases, the value of highends decreases? It seems somewhat counterintuitive for alliances, and individuals, to spend billions upon billions of isk upon the claiming and holding of space, to mine under a much greater risk of pirates, both NPC and PvP, for the reward in money-making terms (which clearly have been meant, by the developers, to be significant given the base prices of the minerals) to be marginal over those who can mine in perfect safety in Empire.
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Ramblin Man
Empyreum
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Posted - 2007.09.30 19:45:00 -
[17]
I've got to say, this one offered something for everyone. Excellent dev blog. If you can churn these out every bit or so, then I think you might deserve a raise.
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Originally by: Akita T For starters, the Obelisk is the most popular not because it's nice, but because everybody already had Gallente Industrial trained up to L5 already for the Iteron V.
Originally by: CCP Dr.EyjoG A combination of factors make the Obelisk the most popular type. [Stats] ... but when it was introduced it was relatively easy for Gallente pilots to train their skill level to be able to fly the ship, hence it gained popularity fast and is still the most used freighter around.
Originally by: Akita T In the ship losses section, the Raven losses are not representative of the ships people like to use in combat. ...representation of how badly Ravens blow in PvP combat...
You ***** about his methodology, and then you assert that, in part, the numbers are the way they are because 'Ravens suck'?
Originally by: Akita T Really, please, DO create a thread there yourself, Dr.EyjoG... and just ASK people there something like "what is your opinion, what would happend if ALL top caps on lowend mineral prices (esp. tritanium and pyerite) would be rised significantly, or even removed altogether ?"
For christ's sake, please quit harping on this. I'm pretty sure he's heard you by now (and so have the rest of us), so there's no need to keep sniping and then offering access to 'the golden land' as a cure-all solution.
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Goumindong
Amarr Merch Industrial GoonSwarm
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Posted - 2007.09.30 19:56:00 -
[18]
Edited by: Goumindong on 30/09/2007 19:56:52 Dr.EyjoG
Where i can make 1.5m isk/unit selling caracals?
Yours truely,
Might not have a production alt alt, but that is freaking impossible.
Play the game and discuss the stats with people who do play the game before you make statements and assumptions
I would be happy to help you out in this area, and I am sure many other would as well, because a better understanding of how the game works is not bad and can help CCP make decisions, but it cannot be achieved without knowing the backround material first.
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Jakiri
GoonFleet GoonSwarm
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Posted - 2007.09.30 19:58:00 -
[19]
Edited by: Jakiri on 30/09/2007 19:58:46
Originally by: Ramblin Man
...representation of how badly Ravens blow in PvP combat...
You ***** about his methodology, and then you assert that, in part, the numbers are the way they are because 'Ravens suck'?
Agree with the example or not, his methodology is somewhat flawed. He says that looking at losses give us some information on the relative popularity of PvP ships - whilst on some, extremely trivial, level this is correct (if noone flew a Stiletto, for example, noone could possibly lose them), it ignores other factors which may causes these extremely fragile ships to die quite often.
In the past few months, I've mostly been flying recons and command ships, but my only ship losses have been the aforementioned Stiletto interceptor. Why it happens is not really relevent - maybe I'm more carefree about the life of a cheaper ship, maybe it's because it's quite possible to kill one in a single volley from a Muninn at over 100km - but it's a good demonstration of why using the number of losses to determine popularity is drastically oversimplifying the way the game works.
To use a rather over-the-top example, what if you had a completely invincible ship that most of the game was able to fly - you'd seen no losses for it (obviously), does that mean it's the least popular?
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Hoshi
Blackguard Brigade
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Posted - 2007.09.30 20:22:00 -
[20]
I would expect a fairly large number of those raven to be pve losses or pve ravens killed by pvp gangs. ---------------------------------------- A Guide to Scan Probing in Revelations |
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Chainsaw Plankton
IDLE GUNS
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Posted - 2007.09.30 20:24:00 -
[21]
Originally by: Akita T
In the ship losses section, the Raven losses are not representative of the ships people like to use in combat. They are the representation of how badly Ravens blow in PvP combat, getting wiped out by almost any other racial battleship in 1-vs-1 combat, and being the least useful in larger-scale combat. As yet another note, the numbers of Raven losses and the presence of Dominix in the top10 category has yet another reason : they are the ships of choice of suicide gankers, getting wiped out by CONCORD. Drake, Caracal and especially Kestrels share a similar fate, the number of them killed by CONCORD certainly outnumbers most other CONCORD ship kills by far, percentually speaking (total loss vs CONCORD loss).
And the last, but most important thing... REMOVING the tritanium cap right now would start a pretty nasty chain-reaction within the EVE economy, one that might lead to a huge crash in most lowends. The only reason why tritanium prices AREN'T spiking to 3.6 ISK directly right now is that people KNOW there's a pricecap at 3.6 ISK. Would they have the certainty that all cheap tritanium sources would be removed, I fully expect massive "pricefixing" operations on Tritanium, with prices climbing abruptly and on a very short notice. I strongly urge you to get into the market forum and discuss this issue in a special thread.
Really, please, DO create a thread there yourself, Dr.EyjoG... and just ASK people there something like "what is your opinion, what would happend if ALL top caps on lowend mineral prices (esp. tritanium and pyerite) would be rised significantly, or even removed altogether ?". Prepare for the deluge.
what is the pvp loss to pve loss ratio of the raven/drake/caracel/kestral? and yes also concord losses
also is it more of a how bad ravens are in pvp or how many low sp raven pilots there are?
and yes it will still be better isk/hour running level 4s and converting that isk to shuttles-> trit then to actually mine veldspar for trit.
approx 7.6 mil/hr mining veldspar with my alt in a hulk (assuming 4isk/1trit!), as compared to 10mil/hour running level 4s (a rather low end estimate)
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Frug
Zenithal Harvest 101010 Alliance
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Posted - 2007.09.30 20:40:00 -
[22]
Originally by: Goumindong
Dr.EyjoG
Where i can make 1.5m isk/unit selling caracals?
Yours truely,
Might not have a production alt alt, but that is freaking impossible.
Play the game and discuss the stats with people who do play the game before you make statements and assumptions
When I read his claims on the profit margins for caracals I wondered the same thing.
I've looked at the BPs and did some basic calculations and they were nothing near what the dev blog says. What kind of material efficiency blueprint are you talking about? How is that possible?
- - - - - - - - - Do not use dotted lines - - - - - - - If you think I'm awesome, say BOOO BOOO!! - Ductoris Neat look what I found - Kreul Hey, my marbles |
flakeonium
Amarr The Cruciform
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Posted - 2007.09.30 20:40:00 -
[23]
this kind of blog is just cool, thx.
-------------------------------------------------- *<(:-} |
Chainsaw Plankton
IDLE GUNS
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Posted - 2007.09.30 20:54:00 -
[24]
Originally by: Goumindong Edited by: Goumindong on 30/09/2007 19:56:52 Dr.EyjoG
Where i can make 1.5m isk/unit selling caracals?
Yours truely,
Might not have a production alt alt, but that is freaking impossible.
Play the game and discuss the stats with people who do play the game before you make statements and assumptions
I would be happy to help you out in this area, and I am sure many other would as well, because a better understanding of how the game works is not bad and can help CCP make decisions, but it cannot be achieved without knowing the backround material first.
lmfao
i just did a quick spread sheet and came out with a 300k loss on caracals in the citadel (using a somewhat average min cost, unresearched bpo, perfect build) 4.2mil build cost and 3.9mil sell orders
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Sirius Problem
Darkness Inc.
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Posted - 2007.09.30 21:08:00 -
[25]
Much better graph design in this blog than the last. Still, a few of them don't covey information very well.
Keep up the good work. ---- Some people say I have a bad attitude. Those people are stupid.
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Wodka
Gallente 5punkorp
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Posted - 2007.09.30 21:18:00 -
[26]
Interesting read Could make some good assumptions and conclusions out of this report.
But one thing I wonder about..
From one graph I see about 23.000 units of hulks have been built so far this year... On another graph I see about 2,500 of em have been destroyed.
On another paragraph I read: "and 12,500 Ore Tech 2 ships mine the asteroid fields of EVE."
So, not even taking into account the other T2 barges besides the hulks, where did the 7,500 hulks go that didnt got destroyed? reprocessed? on inactive accounts? or did you actually figure out how many hulks actually undock from a station?
/me is confused
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Elise Masutra
M. Corp
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Posted - 2007.09.30 21:35:00 -
[27]
Interesting read
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HydroSan
GoonFleet GoonSwarm
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Posted - 2007.09.30 21:54:00 -
[28]
Okay, because CCP doesn't seem to be understanding just how important the trit cap is to the game, I'm going to spell it out for you.
Removing the Tritanium cap without including some other way of meeting or exceeding the current demand for tritanium would destroy the economy and therefore the game. Read the bolded line. Read it again.
Currently there is no way outside of NPC sell orders to get Tritanium in any reasonable quantity. Without shuttles (or previously, coupling arrays), there is no way for anyone to make capital ships without spending weeks mining for the minerals. Even reprocessing rat loot which makes up a fair percentage of the Trit on the market (and you guys have said are planning of phasing out) cannot support the economy.
Unless you want to see a massive recession in the game and the complete destruction of the economy, you would do well to introduce a viable alternative of acquiring Tritanium in the quantities that are moving on the market this very second. Have your economist look at how much Trit gets moved and used in production right now. Now try to come up with an alternative to reprocessing shuttles that can, reasonably, produce that much trit without someone doing it all hours of the day.
The dynamic of this game comes from the economy. People lose ships and don't get them back after they die. Trit is the lifeblood of all production in the game from ships to modules.
To summarize: Produce a way to get trit in large quantities IN THE VOLUME THAT MOVES RIGHT NOW, or do not mess around with the 'artificial' tritanium cap. If you don't do it properly, you will, without a doubt, destroy the game.
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Delvainar
GoonFleet
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Posted - 2007.09.30 21:58:00 -
[29]
Quote: Currently tritanium is trading at 3.00 û 3.25 depending on region. Given the changes in supply and increased demand in the past months, and expectations for higher demand in the future we are expecting so see prices increase further in coming weeks. However, there is a game mechanics price cap of tritanium at about 3.6 ISK per unit. It is a strong recommendation on behalf of the chairman of the economic board that price of shuttles, and other items which create artificial price barriers, be increased or other measures taken in order to avoid price caps on the market for minerals (and any other market for that matter).
I give up on writing any sort of explanation because I can't keep myself from name-calling.
This is a terrible idea, and there is a game design to consider here. Trit is supposed to be cheap, that's how the game was designed. If it takes NPC price ceilings to make it happen, so be it, the alternative is a broken game.
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Toria Nynys
Minmatar
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Posted - 2007.09.30 22:28:00 -
[30]
Dear Doctor,
Please talk to even a single industrialist playing the game before making your blog look like the laughing stock it is. 40% profit margin on a T1 ship indeed.
That single paragraph makes the rest of the numbers suspect. Never mind the fishy sounding hulks produced being 2x the hulks used.
Oh, and removing the trit cap -- awesome idea. Make life in 0.0 utterly unprofitable. Let's force everyone back to empire highsec to fight for veld roids! I for one think it'd be great for the game. From the whining I keep hearing nobody likes POS wars, bubble camps, cap ship blobs and the rest of 0.0 'content.'
And if you can't figure out why trit at 15-19isk/pu means high ends at 1/5 their current prices (read: highsec veld mining paying about the same as 0.0) -- well. Check out the market forum for a bit of a hint re: why the Eve economy regarding player produced goods works the way it works.
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