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Rinekar
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Posted - 2004.03.26 00:50:00 -
[31]
Edited by: Rinekar on 26/03/2004 00:52:23
I got frustrated with my RD agent and now don't even bother what is the point. I had big number in Gallente Starship Engineering and did missions everyday for nothing. So what is the big point. FIX THE SYSTEM NOW! Its not about me not getting anything its about what Morkt has voiced above. People that have won the "lottery" in a certain research field should not be rewarded again in the same manner...
Koensayr Drive Yards [KOEN] Website
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Wraeththu
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Posted - 2004.03.26 00:51:00 -
[32]
I like the premise of the lottery system as it's conceptually laid out (baring some improvements), but the point is that you can only push someone's disbelief so far before they snap.
Even a single double is a statistical anomaly, the fact that there's multiples, and there's even triples, is just too far to accept.
This is another pivotal point in CCP's community management, given recent rapid player entrance, this is their first interaction with how the community is to be delt with. It's obvious the code's going to be changed. The question is how it will (or won't) be presented to the public, Be it coming clean, in-plausable deniability, or lie of various ommisions.
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TomB: End the speed-race. 1 propulsion mod allowed, make turrets affect ship attributes like +speed/+ab speed +agil for progressivly smaller/lighter turrets, -speed/-ab speed -agil for long-range. |
nails
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Posted - 2004.03.26 01:02:00 -
[33]
If that's true then this needs to be fixed right now. The same person getting the exact same rare print twice is not funny, it proves the lottery system is not working. I always did smell fish in the lottery system.
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http://ota-corps.otaku.jp -- Anime l33t level
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Sabahl
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Posted - 2004.03.26 01:06:00 -
[34]
There is only one upside to all this. today I was discussing with one of my associates exactly how best to exploit the marketing potential of her second interceptor BP in the space of two weeks from the same agent. And yes, it was indeed the same interceptor type as well. Of course, it's a tiny tiny upside which affects two people. The downside affects...well...pretty much the rest of the player base.
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voogru
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Posted - 2004.03.26 01:13:00 -
[35]
Excuse me while I murder my agent.
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Your 425mm Prototype I Gauss Gun perfectly strikes Guardian Enforcer, wrecking for 827.3 damage. |
Cabadrin
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Posted - 2004.03.26 01:20:00 -
[36]
I absolutely and toally agree. FIX THE LOTTERY, please. In a random system, there is practically ZERO chance of this happening, if it's random. Have a ball bouncing on a keyboard determine the numbers or something. Just fix it! We all want a fair chance at scoring the blueprints.
And while you're at it, release more tech 2!
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Coalition Kill Board |
Lucas De'Thal
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Posted - 2004.03.26 01:29:00 -
[37]
 Quote:
Edited by: Aethelgrin on 25/03/2004 23:26:10
No. We have so little information that we can't draw any conclusions from this at all.
Morkt knows of 5 people who've received the same rare BPO from the same agent twice. We also know that due to his public campaign against the lottery, Morkt is the person people are most likely to tell when it happens, thus skewing the proportions a bit. We do not know how many of those BPOs have been awarded, so we don't know what proportion of BPOs have gone to repeat winners, even if Morkt weren't skewing the results with his campaign. We do not know how many potential winners there are, or what the average number of RP held by each one is.
We're missing at least 2 critical pieces of information in order to conclude there is something wrong, and what we do know isn't objective information.
You've gone completely mad, Morkt. You have no rational reason to think the system is broken. You have anecdotal evidence within a contextual vacuum.
Yes, I do research (3 agents), and I've received nothing so far, but unless your default position is to assume the system is broken a priori, you cannot reasonably conclude the system is broken.
maybe screaming will help
YOU ARE AN IDIOT. it's called ingnoring the facts. wake up and see the problem.
______________________________________________
Hellmar > sorry for the attitude, playing a n00b character through the current state just left me a bit bitter
dev chat: Mar 18, 2004
hellmar> "you lot are just so clever you have a good history for out smarting us :-S "
dev chat: Feb 12, 2004 |
Kralizec
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Posted - 2004.03.26 01:32:00 -
[38]
I agree something seems fishy. Morkt is only mentioning interceptor bps, there have been similar things happening with the other bp types! Even if this isn't 100% something is bugged it is definately proof enough that it needs further investigation and something done to restore confidence in the system.
This seems like those of us who actualy do the research missions spending money on supplies are being penalized while those who log in reset agent are getting the rewards. between 3 chars in my small corp we have 9 research projects. Thats two rpm books costing a total of 80mil which seems pointless with the way the system is flawed.
fix the system if its broken (and apears that way), if you maintain its working let us see some evidence to counter what we already know to prove otherwise.
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Skillz
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Posted - 2004.03.26 03:24:00 -
[39]
Edited by: Skillz on 26/03/2004 03:26:59
Well if so, CCP should take the easy way out. Increase the rate of bp releases of the same kind of module.
BTW: If I got 5 bpo from the same agent, I'd bug report it. If CCP woulden't consider it to be a bug, I woulden't sell the bpo. I'd monopolize it's market.
Then again, this everything can also be a little story that carebears have invented, just to serve their own private interests.
Keep on flaming, lamers.
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Sabahl
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Posted - 2004.03.26 03:30:00 -
[40]
Kind of missing the point there Skillz. If they did increase the release of theBPs then, given the info we have, the same people would merely be receiving more of the same BPs.
Is that really what you want?
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kieron
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Posted - 2004.03.26 03:45:00 -
[41]
Morkt, I got your e-mail and have forwarded it to TomB. As soon as I have more information, I'll pass it along.
kieron
Community Manager,
EVE Online
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Vannessa
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Posted - 2004.03.26 03:48:00 -
[42]
I find the whole thing quite worrying tbh. I specialised in manufacturing and trained skills high to cope with tech II manufacturing.
I have been doing stoopid r&d missions (which amount to costing an absolute fortune) since they were introduced.
I have yet to be offered anything, which i could handle, as it is a lottery after all, but now it looks like the system is shockingly flawed and yet again either the wrong people are getting the cream or some paeople are getting the whole god damn dairy.
Kinda Blows Fresian Blues full time tbh.
CCP sort this out for the love of god , A fair system is now showing definate and apparently proveable signs of being extremely unfair. Which means all my training and r&d time has basically been a complete and utter waste of time.
Manufacturer of fine cruisers
All models made
Free valet with every purchase
'The cruiser in front is from Vannessa corp'
Contact: Vannessa ingame to negotiate prices |
Sally
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Posted - 2004.03.26 04:00:00 -
[43]
Based on
- the history of the game
- the introduction of new game concepts which have major flaws
- having a lot of half implemented game features
- seeing how game mechanics are being changed all the time without allowing the players to respec
you will come to what conclusion?
--
Stories: #1
--
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Yukka Detac
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Posted - 2004.03.26 04:39:00 -
[44]
Just an aside:
Statistically, you only need 23 people in a room in order to have a 50/50 chance that two of them will have the same birthday.
This holds despite the fact that there are 365 days in a year.
A full statistical analysis requires much more information that we are currently privy to. I suspect CCP will have to hire a full time statistician just to handle the complaints. 
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StealthNet
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Posted - 2004.03.26 05:30:00 -
[45]
It's really hard to code random libraries. any computer expert, good programmer or security specialist knows that a perfect random generator code does not exist.
From time to time, someone finds a flaw in a major random generator code used everywhere, mostly with cryptography. I don't need to further detail the repercussions of such occurence.
Now, imagine that we have a lottery. A "lottery" means random code, otherwise, it wouldn't be random or a lottery.
But this lottery is different, because it has a weight from the research points. If someone has a better chance to get an item due to his RPs, then this approach itself denies the random code itself too. It "can't" be a lotteyr simply because there are RPs.
so, we can't have a "lottery" based on a better chance due to research points. Or you give it randomly, or you give it through a RP based queue. I don't know if Im making myself clear enough, but it's kinda impossible to have a weight queue and introduce a random code to sort it out. It stops being random! What ppl can do is, make a system that is "suficiently scrambled" to avoid repetitions. But again, it calls for the introduction of clear rules like
exec lottery
while winner got bpo before then
begin
exclude winer from queue;
exec lottery;
end;
... to avoid the anomalies.
imho, the whole lottery idea misses the point, and can't work as supposed / intended, never. There will always be anomalies from time to time, no matter what. A better solution must be found.
But thats just me, Im tired and sleepy. gn all
_______________________________________________
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MalFunction
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Posted - 2004.03.26 06:51:00 -
[46]
just to inform you all
received a T2 BPO in the field of Amarrian Starship Engineering.
Costed me approx 20k Research points
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Golgrath
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Posted - 2004.03.26 07:40:00 -
[47]
Quote:
so, we can't have a "lottery" based on a better chance due to research points. Or you give it randomly, or you give it through a RP based queue. I don't know if Im making myself clear enough, but it's kinda impossible to have a weight queue and introduce a random code to sort it out. It stops being random! What ppl can do is, make a system that is "suficiently scrambled" to avoid repetitions.
Of course it's possible. Combine all the researchers into one big array with one slot per research point. Generate a random number in range of the array indices. Look who owns that slot. Give BP to that player. Remove the winner's slots from the array.
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Psy Corp
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Posted - 2004.03.26 07:54:00 -
[48]
Edited by: Psy Corp on 26/03/2004 07:56:24
Quote:
I've now received reports of FIVE people who have been awarded Elite Frigate BPos twice.
well i know two that has gotten 2 interceptor bps of the same ship each  not from the same agent.. one got with a few days between.. other one had like 2-3 weeks befor he got his second inteceptor bp
so thats 4 inteceptor bps to only 2 persons
I Have The Power Of The Mighty Lo.0lipop..
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TGIF
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Posted - 2004.03.26 09:07:00 -
[49]
Ah well, after a while people who do agent missions quit the game and move on. CCP then wonders why only a few do agent missions ( the ones who get the bp's) and then start fixing it. Great system. Hope tech3 gets released the same way, maybe i should suck up to t0ri or papa smurf for getting in the right que. 
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Absinthe Fueled |
Hardin
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Posted - 2004.03.26 09:17:00 -
[50]
I was made aware last night of a friend who I trust that he had recieved 2 tech2 BPOs within 24hrs from the same agent... the second time he won he had 80 RP...
Now it is supposedely a lottery - so its perfectly feasible that this happened. Also as the majority of RP agent runners have small RP totals (as revealed by PapaSmurf) it is more likely to go to someone with a small RP total.
However by the same token for a BPO to go to the same runner through the same agent with a small total twice in a row beggars belief.
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Juan Andalusian
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Posted - 2004.03.26 09:32:00 -
[51]
CCP are just lucky that the last 50 games or so that have gone gold are completely crap.
Why worry about Tech II so much? It's fairly obvious that this "Recycle, Rinse, Reapeat" form of introducing what they deem is "content" ain't gonna change anything, everything is going to be the same, it will just have a different number... wether it works properly/fairly or not.
Take a look in the CSM.. Skaz's first question. Look at the answer, if you can call that an answer, he gets.
We've been playing follow the patch for 3/4 of a year. Do you seriously expect anything?
If i was CCP i would have coded Tech II distribution like this on purpose... just to take the ****.
**Pain is meant to be felt** |
McWatt
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Posted - 2004.03.26 10:57:00 -
[52]
Edited by: McWatt on 26/03/2004 11:01:18
i too think that there are 2 problems:
1. the double BP to same guy bug
2. the system in general
to 1.
looking at the history of missions, i m not suprised to see some "irregularities".
(sorry, my knowledge of combinatorics is all but perfect!)
* the system ccp is using is one of those "drawing balls from cups situations, with/without putting back" that most of you will remember from school.
* the system they are using is a complicated one, we are surely mising some informations (which is good imo, as a system which is calculateable for everyone would be rather boring)
a) there are lots of cups with different BPs
b) some BPs can be handed out via different cups (ships)
c) BPs seem to trickle out over time(this allows ppl to regain some points and get a second one)
* the situation in a double handout of same BP via same agent is an eassier situation.
and it is very different from this one:
Quote:
Statistically, you only need 23 people in a room in order to have a 50/50 chance that two of them will have the same birthday.
This holds despite the fact that there are 365 days in a year.
it s rather similar to the "lottery winner hit s jackpot twice in a row" or the famous "lottery winner hit by lightning on same day" situation.
it s simply extremly unlikely to happen to multiple ppl
to 2.
as the current system has some other drawbacks as well, and as ccp is looking into the subject anyway (i hope!) i guess it s a good idea to use this topic to talk about additional improvements. (though they shouldn t be mixed up with the problem at hand)
here s what i think:
* dedicated researchers, especialy if concentrated on a limited field, should have the biggest chance of drawing a BP, not one random small fish in the barrel.
* it would be great if player action would trigger the release of BPs. devs adding them when they seem fit feels lame to me.
* (you re going to love this one! )
tech 2 production and BP efficiancy research should be limited to systems with sec rating 0.4 or below.
a) this makes much more interaction possible
b) makes them an "advanced" game feature
c) takes some focus from high sec.
in high sec there s very little that you can do against a tech 2 monopoly, and it s particularly sad if it was generated by a bug!
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Nemesis I
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Posted - 2004.03.26 11:17:00 -
[53]
I dont mind the lottery idea, I do feel there is a problem with its coding with this evidence.
I will simply adapting to the bug however, as history shows CCP wont react quickly to this!
Nem
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Aralis
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Posted - 2004.03.26 11:22:00 -
[54]
Just adding my support to this topic. Only person in our corp to get a BPO got it after 4 days of research with a low level agent. Compared with many long lasting projects (I have one with over 32k rp). Individually doesn't prove everything but you hear the same from everyone just about. (Yes I read one guy got one with 20k - sounds like the more you have the less likely it is.)
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Griffin Smith
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Posted - 2004.03.26 12:17:00 -
[55]
How about this, give each bpo a set no. of research points needed to get it, or a set no. of rp in different fields to get it. then allow the player to set the no. of rp they wish to spend in each field to gain a certain type of bpo.
Then when they have completed the research and get the bpo that they sought they lose the rp they have alotted to get the bpo. That will mean if u want to get good or better bpo's u'll need to continue gaining rp so that u can BUY the bpo with ur rp.
This system is fairer then a lottery as those who have done the work in research and have a large no. of rp will be able to BUY bpo's, where as those who have just started can also get bpo's but of a lesser value as they haven't yet done the research to get rp.
It would be nice also to have tradable research points so that everyone in a corp can contribute to getting bpo's that the corp wants, like isk in the wallet.
All that is truely urs, is whats in ur head. |
Athule Snanm
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Posted - 2004.03.26 12:22:00 -
[56]
Repeated with some additions from the missions forum:
Statistically the BPs going to non-specialists is not a suprise, given the evidence we have. People who go on about things like 'I have 10 times the chance, twice the chance, etc' are looking at it from the wrong point of view. The highest R&D researcher a few weeks ago had a probability of winning in their field of 0.76%. That is, roughly 99.24% chance of not winning. If the same researcher had just idled their agent then they'd have a chance of 0.29% - ie 99.71% of not getting one. Let's say that a lowish earner is getting a 10th of their R&D (I suspect the ratio when you discount multipliers is less, but let's say it's a 10th) then the chances of winning are 0.03% - ie 99.97% not going to get a BP.
So let's look at those figures: 99.24, 99.71, 99.97 - no matter if you work your guts out or sit back sipping G&Ts all day you are basically unlikely to get a BP in any given draw. Because there are tonnes of small projects, odds are that most of the BPs will go to them. It's like buying 100 lottery tickets in the thoughts that you will then be guaranteed to win the jackpot - it just doesn't work like that. This is the world of ants that PapaSmurf was talking about. The only significant difference is whether you're in a lottery or not - as if you're not you'll never win. My personal opinion is that with the current setup doing R&D agent missions is probably a waste of time. I stopped doing them weeks ago.
The other side of the issue is the duplicate winners - this is phenomenally unlikely, especially for the rarer BPs where people probably aren't turning them down. The fact that it appears to have happened on several occasions already screams out for further and careful investigation - or at least some very solid counters to the speculations on the forums which are likely to just get louder and louder as time goes by.
As I see it there are two ways to counter the statistical skewing towards people with small projects as a group and thus crowding out the specialists.
First off, the R&D missions could give a much bigger bonus. Not double, but more like 100 or 1000 times the idling rate. This would still leave people with low points the chance of winning, but their chances would be much smaller as a group vs the specialists as a group. I am a little dubious about this as it turns missioning into even more of a treadmill than it currently is, but if these missions were long, involved and difficult then these feeling would probably be minimised.
Secondly there could be an 'advanced science project skill' requiring the equivalent science skill at 5. The skill itself should only be available from corp missions that need a standing of 9+ - and thus be very rare and hard work to come by. The skill would give 200% bonus per level or more. This would be my preferred solution. Again it would weigh heavily against alts and people dabbling in research, without excluding them completely.
_______________________________
Doomheim - EVE's only hygiene! |
Danton Marcellus
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Posted - 2004.03.26 13:29:00 -
[57]
As for the fix make it so that only people with an excess of 20k RP even enter the lottery for more potent blueprints to be released, that'd put a cap on the number of people exploiting the flawed system cancelling their research after having struck out on the initial break-off point.
Let the exploiters have the frigates and give the rest of us a shot at the cruisers and battleships.
Convert Stations
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Lucre
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Posted - 2004.03.26 13:50:00 -
[58]
Corp mate has been researching ship engineering since a few days after Castor. Without success. He gets RPM, starts a new project and within days gets an Interceptor bpo from the second agent.
Yes, it's statistically possible that the win would come from his 200 rp agent rather than his 20000 rp agent. But the odds were 100:1 against it...
Anyone else had similar experiences? Because if they have it again moves from possible-but-might-happen-to-someone and into the probability-lottery-is-bugged territory.
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Scalor Valentis
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Posted - 2004.03.26 13:58:00 -
[59]
I'd like to point out, that of course they got multiple
BPs from the SAME agent, so will I eventually.
I'm only doing research for one agent, so she
will be the one who gives the BPs...
I just don't see the point people are making
about getting BPs from the same agent.
Multiple BPs is a different thing, however.
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Juan Andalusian
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Posted - 2004.03.26 14:14:00 -
[60]
Their point is that winners are being awarded twice, and to top it off they are being awarded the same BP twice.
**Pain is meant to be felt** |
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