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Morkt Drakt
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Posted - 2004.03.25 21:36:00 -
[1]
Edited by: Morkt Drak on 25/03/2004 21:43:06
This really does seem now to have gone well beyond the realms of any such thing as "Luck" or "artifacts".
I've now received reports of FIVE people who have been awarded Elite Frigate BPos twice.
Thats the exact same Uber-Uber-uber rare BPO going to the same char from the same agent twice in a row.
FIVE TIMES
Im not sure exactly what CCP regard as proof, what Hellmar needs to see to get motivated ... but for the love of god stop handing out anymore BPs until this is properly and seriously looked into.
Simple fact of the matter is that an ever growing percentage of your players are becomming more and more worried over this apaprent problem and we need to know it is actually being dealt with and not brushed under the carpet.
I will be exstatic with joy if this is nothing but some flukey aberation but as it stands right now I simply cannot see it being anything other than a serious bug or flaw in the Lottery.
This needed acting upon weeks ago, but as none of you have a time machine "now" will have to be the next best time.
Stop the lottery.
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Tyria Evenstar
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Posted - 2004.03.25 21:41:00 -
[2]
CCP think their right. Playberbase thinks they are wrong. Nothing will happen Morkt.
-Tyria.
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Feral
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Posted - 2004.03.25 21:42:00 -
[3]
Edited by: Feral on 25/03/2004 21:43:23
Add to that theres a thread somewhere were some reports getting 5 bpo's via a method of cancelling there research at 1k rp's and restarting, plus another person receiving 4 via the same method.
How can this possibly be described as either "fair" or "lucky"?
Edit: corrected typo.
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Sabahl
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Posted - 2004.03.25 21:42:00 -
[4]
Seconded. This lottery is broken. We now have enough data in the players' domain to absolutely state that your code is faulty. You may not want to believe it is true but the numbers are not lying.
And I would like to add that as a player who decided in December to continue playing Eve in the hope that Castor would allow me the chance of being able to obtain a tech 2 BP, thus sustaining my interest in the game, this isn't the way I hoped things would pan out. I voiced my concerns about the lottery early on in the patch forum, when it was still on the drawing board. The shoddy implementation and lack of foresight as to the overall dynamics involved, coupled with what has now been demonstrated to be a faulty implementation has more or less made the most important player-effecting part of Castor a complete joke.
Someone please wake me up when we are out of Beta.
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Mr nStuff
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Posted - 2004.03.25 21:44:00 -
[5]
I have 20,000 research points for my Minmatar Starship Engineering research.
Still no blueprint offers.
I have two other R&D agents that have round 300 Research Points each.
Still no offers..
For a year now i've helped newbies on the help channel learn the ropes of the game. Maybe even kept a few from cancelling their accounts..
Still no T2 blueprints though.. 
5 R&D Agents, 10months, Zero BPO Offers..
Onboard navigational [Planetary Avoidance] computer.
My account will be suspended at the end of the current play period.
Expires on 19. September 2004 |
Joshua Calvert
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Posted - 2004.03.25 21:47:00 -
[6]
I feel sorry for those who have dedicated hours and hours of game time doing agent missions/R&D and get nothing.
Then Johnny-Cum-Lately does 3 R&D missions and gets an Interceptor BP to sell for 0.5 billion isk.
LEEEEERRRRRRRRRRROOOOOOOOOYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY! |
Morkt Drakt
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Posted - 2004.03.25 21:49:00 -
[7]
This has got nothing at all to do with how many point any individual has.
Try to get that straight right from the start.
This is about multiple repeat winners.
It has nothing at all whatsoever to do with how many ruddy RPs you, me, or anybody else has and any feelings of being "left out".
Nothing.
At all
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Sabahl
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Posted - 2004.03.25 21:49:00 -
[8]
Before this thread gets derailed by people talking about how many RPs they have please understand this is not about NOT getting BPs. This is about the BP assignment mechanism being broken. So please, no more posts about "I have fifteen squillion RPs and haven;t yet got my Snargle Blaster BP".
Thaaaannnks.
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Temujin Destovai
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Posted - 2004.03.25 21:49:00 -
[9]
Lets not forget the guys who have gotten their third blueprints from the same agent now...
The Chronicles of Xanadu |
Joshua Calvert
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Posted - 2004.03.25 21:52:00 -
[10]
The same happened with the last "big-agent-thing": implants.
Getting them multiply was a matter of cancelling certain missions....same bug?
LEEEEERRRRRRRRRRROOOOOOOOOYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY! |
Xelios
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Posted - 2004.03.25 21:52:00 -
[11]
 Quote:
Someone please wake me up when we are out of Beta.
You may as well just leave the game now then. This game will always be in beta,the only time it will stop being in beta is when CCP stops adding content to it. So unless you want nothing new to enter the game ever again, it will be in a type of beta at all times.
The lottery does need to be stopped. A couple people in MASS have many thousands of RP in research fields and have not seen a damn thing in the past 2 months, while people with under 1k RP have gotten several bp's. It's obvious the system is flawed and CCP needs to look at it right now. Lets get on it folks.
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Sabahl
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Posted - 2004.03.25 21:53:00 -
[12]
Quote:
I feel sorry for those who have dedicated hours and hours of game time doing agent missions/R&D and get nothing.
Then Johnny-Cum-Lately does 3 R&D missions and gets an Interceptor BP to sell for 0.5 billion isk.
Irrelevent as well, Joshua. The fact is certain people have received the same BP twice from certain agents. This points to an error in the code to allot the BPs.
And for the benefit of those who can't join the dots, if people are being assigned multiple BPs in a non-random manner (which they obviously are) then it is more or less a dead cert that the original BP assignment process is non-random as well. In which case a large percentage of the research agent runners have been wasting their time.
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Skillz
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Posted - 2004.03.25 21:53:00 -
[13]
ROFL, that would be so funny. If it's true.
Keep on flaming, lamers.
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Ankh
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Posted - 2004.03.25 21:54:00 -
[14]
Same here... 23,000 RP's so far and not a sniff of a bp, all research is giving me atm is more toxic waste to haul across low security systems.
Its like collecting airmiles day after day, but having to pay for them and not being able to cash them in.  If I thought it would culminate in an offer of a tech 2 cruiser in time, it would seem worthwhile, but the way bp's are being allocated atm does not fill me with confidence.
Does anyone know if there's any correlation between the number of RP's you have earned, and the value of the bp you get offered?
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Sabahl
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Posted - 2004.03.25 21:58:00 -
[15]
Tease, I think your findings are symptomatic but not absolute. It wouldn't explain why the same people are getting the same BPs from the same agent, for one thing. A person with 20k RPs getting an interceptor BP and then getting the same interceptor BP a week or two later with a couple of thousand RPs points to something a tad less obvious being wrong.
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Talaq
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Posted - 2004.03.25 22:01:00 -
[16]
well tedious as the missions are thats not the point, point being that with the bugged system, some people are getting multiple bps. and others none. yet another flawed plan, way to go ccp
best way to end this is just admit there is a flaw, phase it out and never use it again
Q: If a tree fell in a forest, and it would hit a mime. would you care?
If at first you don't succeed, destroy all evidence of trying. |
Joshua Calvert
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Posted - 2004.03.25 22:07:00 -
[17]
check market forum and see how many "alts" are selling tech 2 bp's because "they dont want to be hassled ingame".
LEEEEERRRRRRRRRRROOOOOOOOOYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY! |
Mon Palae
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Posted - 2004.03.25 22:13:00 -
[18]
Quote:
I've now received reports of FIVE people who have been awarded Elite Frigate BPos twice.
Not exactly the same thing but I know of one person who got a T-II BP (non-frigate) and two days later with maybe all of 80 RPs got a T-II frigate BP. I am about as positive that this was the case as can be short of it having had happened to me.
While the above is not exactly the same situation you are on about it smacks of the same trend too closely to be ignored.
On the upside waiting to get a T-II generally sees the chances for a more useful T-II BP to be put in the game. The first T-II BP was what...a Micro-Smartbomb? By waiting you may have a chance at perhaps a weapon BP or somesuch as they roll into the game (assuming they are indeed out there). Not much to hang your hat on I know but perhaps it'll make you feel better while hauling toxic waste to another planet 12j across low sec space.
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Synex
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Posted - 2004.03.25 22:15:00 -
[19]
* Heads off to murder his 20k RP agent and alop with a new 100 RP agent... *
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Deadflip2
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Posted - 2004.03.25 22:18:00 -
[20]
I gave up ages ago...............
---
"this song reminds me of the girl i met on a schooltrip, she was really nice, and she really liked me.
I forgot to ask her her phone number" - Nelix trist
OMG im a pretzel!!! |
Morkt Drakt
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Posted - 2004.03.25 22:23:00 -
[21]
Quote:
Edited by: Tease on 25/03/2004 22:02:47
Quote:
Tease, I think your findings are symptomatic but not absolute. It wouldn't explain why the same people are getting the same BPs from the same agent, for one thing. A person with 20k RPs getting an interceptor BP and then getting the same interceptor BP a week or two later with a couple of thousand RPs points to something a tad less obvious being wrong.
except that I shared my findings in game with a few people 2-3 weeks ago and all of them are experiencing the same thing. I won't say who they are since they fear repercussions for "exploiting". I don't consider it an "exploit" because we've told Papa Smurf numerous times what's going on and he continues to deny any bugs or problems in the lottery code.
I remember you saying all that.. I thought "No way - no way could CCP have made such a fubar of it" - i really hope you're wrong.. but everyday that hope gets smaller and smaller.
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Athule Snanm
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Posted - 2004.03.25 23:10:00 -
[22]
What we can glean from the (small amount of) information that's been given out is that enormous alarm bells should be ringing over this.
There are two problems in my opinion. First off is that statistically a lot of the BP rewards will be going to alts, new players and people idling R&D projects with the minimum of skills rather than to people willing to specialise. Suprisingly this is part of the game design - bizarre and wrong IMHO, just like the DCM skill giving out about the same morphite as someone mining for megacyte and getting about the same quantity of morphite over time as a byproduct. Silly, but not a bug.
Secondly there are the cases of multiple BPs going to winners - this is so statistically improbable that I find it extremely hard to believe there isn't a bug.
_______________________________
Doomheim - EVE's only hygiene! |
Aethelgrin
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Posted - 2004.03.25 23:24:00 -
[23]
Edited by: Aethelgrin on 25/03/2004 23:26:10
No. We have so little information that we can't draw any conclusions from this at all.
Morkt knows of 5 people who've received the same rare BPO from the same agent twice. We also know that due to his public campaign against the lottery, Morkt is the person people are most likely to tell when it happens, thus skewing the proportions a bit. We do not know how many of those BPOs have been awarded, so we don't know what proportion of BPOs have gone to repeat winners, even if Morkt weren't skewing the results with his campaign. We do not know how many potential winners there are, or what the average number of RP held by each one is.
We're missing at least 2 critical pieces of information in order to conclude there is something wrong, and what we do know isn't objective information.
You've gone completely mad, Morkt. You have no rational reason to think the system is broken. You have anecdotal evidence within a contextual vacuum.
Yes, I do research (3 agents), and I've received nothing so far, but unless your default position is to assume the system is broken a priori, you cannot reasonably conclude the system is broken.
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Morkt Drakt
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Posted - 2004.03.25 23:38:00 -
[24]
*******s.
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Athule Snanm
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Posted - 2004.03.25 23:43:00 -
[25]
Quote:
No. We have so little information that we can't draw any conclusions from this at all...or what the average number of RP held by each one is...
Actually we know what, at a point in time a couple of weeks ago, the total RP was in the biggest category. We also know the RP of the best researcher in that category. This is enough to work out what the greatest chance of winning a single draw was at that time. From there you can make upper limit estimates on the probabilities of winning multiple prints in the same area - in fact the true probabilities will be much lower (guaranteed) as you lose the RPs when you complete a project. Check for some of my posts in the mission forum for the various logical steps I've gone thorough - it's a whole lot more than anecdotal evidence.
_______________________________
Doomheim - EVE's only hygiene! |
Kalki Nibiru
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Posted - 2004.03.25 23:43:00 -
[26]
Have any of you considered that maybe Papa Smurf decided to have the "Infinite Improbability Drive" run the BP Lottery system?
Ya see, to him, its working "totally awesome", but he doesnt realize that instead of giving other people Blue Prints, system operates in the most improbable way, thus giving the same person another BP.
So yeah, its technically working just fine. 
Taken from the May 29th 2003 Devchat at EveGate
.
<Muaddid> Q: When will sentry gun and station and similar construction pods be introduced on the market?
<Hellmar> we have various player owned entities already implemented. Sentry guns, power/shield generators, field repair mini-stations, mobile refineries. We are still working out the last tidbits of how they can be over taken, what is the penalty of having a sentry gun kill a n00b etc. and we have been a bit busy with plugging the holes that people have found.I would say that you'd start to see these items on the market in about 2-3 weeks, very expensive to begin with |
Danton Marcellus
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Posted - 2004.03.25 23:52:00 -
[27]
Edited by: Danton Marcellus on 25/03/2004 23:55:42
I've got it, I've got it, put the flame out here myself, nothing more to see...
Just fix it now, denial is as becoming as a combover.
Convert Stations
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Murple
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Posted - 2004.03.26 00:14:00 -
[28]
I predicted this would happen pre-Castor. Sure enough, people are getting screwed. Why not make RP's a harvest item like isk through various methods? There should be a set high limit, I need X amount of RP's to get bp Y. You should have to invest raw materials and equipment for research just like real life. Only those who work towards their bp, should get a bp. We play this game to play the game, not to sit around and twiddle our thumbs every 18-24 hours! 
Now is the time to revamp this flawed research lottery system. CCP, allow your players to "mine" RP's. Reward those who spend hours each day working towards that goal. Those people who log in each day for only 5 minutes shouldn't get a 100 million isk bp. It's the way MMOG's have always worked. Hard work = large reward, it's the way things should always be.
This would at least end the damaging controversy of a bugged lottery.
Gotta love my city-sized roid vacuum cleaner! |
Athule Snanm
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Posted - 2004.03.26 00:29:00 -
[29]
Actually, I don't mind it that one or two people with tiny RPs might get a BP. What I do find bonkers is that the statistics of it mean that these people actually end up getting *most* of the BPs - and that's before we start thinking of any possible bugs that are in there.
_______________________________
Doomheim - EVE's only hygiene! |
Morkt Drakt
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Posted - 2004.03.26 00:41:00 -
[30]
Quote:
Actually, I don't mind it that one or two people with tiny RPs might get a BP. What I do find bonkers is that the statistics of it mean that these people actually end up getting *most* of the BPs - and that's before we start thinking of any possible bugs that are in there.
Aye.
The principle of the "lottery" and the entire Agent RP thing is something Ive supported and still do. As I said back then though CCP would have to ensure that it was incredibly well checked out for bugs etc.
I think what dissipoints me the most, beyond any potential bugs, is that there does seem to be little incentive to "work" research agents at all and the best "strategy" is simply to use RPM to cover more disparate fields, rather than to specialise and work at one.
But thats not really something for here and now... atm i just want to know that ccp is taking this seriously and will see if these claims are a) true b) indicate a problem and c) fix it if there is... oh and d) tell us exactly wth is going on.
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Rinekar
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Posted - 2004.03.26 00:50:00 -
[31]
Edited by: Rinekar on 26/03/2004 00:52:23
I got frustrated with my RD agent and now don't even bother what is the point. I had big number in Gallente Starship Engineering and did missions everyday for nothing. So what is the big point. FIX THE SYSTEM NOW! Its not about me not getting anything its about what Morkt has voiced above. People that have won the "lottery" in a certain research field should not be rewarded again in the same manner...
Koensayr Drive Yards [KOEN] Website
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Wraeththu
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Posted - 2004.03.26 00:51:00 -
[32]
I like the premise of the lottery system as it's conceptually laid out (baring some improvements), but the point is that you can only push someone's disbelief so far before they snap.
Even a single double is a statistical anomaly, the fact that there's multiples, and there's even triples, is just too far to accept.
This is another pivotal point in CCP's community management, given recent rapid player entrance, this is their first interaction with how the community is to be delt with. It's obvious the code's going to be changed. The question is how it will (or won't) be presented to the public, Be it coming clean, in-plausable deniability, or lie of various ommisions.
--
TomB: End the speed-race. 1 propulsion mod allowed, make turrets affect ship attributes like +speed/+ab speed +agil for progressivly smaller/lighter turrets, -speed/-ab speed -agil for long-range. |
nails
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Posted - 2004.03.26 01:02:00 -
[33]
If that's true then this needs to be fixed right now. The same person getting the exact same rare print twice is not funny, it proves the lottery system is not working. I always did smell fish in the lottery system.
------------------
http://ota-corps.otaku.jp -- Anime l33t level
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Sabahl
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Posted - 2004.03.26 01:06:00 -
[34]
There is only one upside to all this. today I was discussing with one of my associates exactly how best to exploit the marketing potential of her second interceptor BP in the space of two weeks from the same agent. And yes, it was indeed the same interceptor type as well. Of course, it's a tiny tiny upside which affects two people. The downside affects...well...pretty much the rest of the player base.
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voogru
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Posted - 2004.03.26 01:13:00 -
[35]
Excuse me while I murder my agent.
-------
Your 425mm Prototype I Gauss Gun perfectly strikes Guardian Enforcer, wrecking for 827.3 damage. |
Cabadrin
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Posted - 2004.03.26 01:20:00 -
[36]
I absolutely and toally agree. FIX THE LOTTERY, please. In a random system, there is practically ZERO chance of this happening, if it's random. Have a ball bouncing on a keyboard determine the numbers or something. Just fix it! We all want a fair chance at scoring the blueprints.
And while you're at it, release more tech 2!
-----------------------------------------------
Coalition Kill Board |
Lucas De'Thal
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Posted - 2004.03.26 01:29:00 -
[37]
Quote:
Edited by: Aethelgrin on 25/03/2004 23:26:10
No. We have so little information that we can't draw any conclusions from this at all.
Morkt knows of 5 people who've received the same rare BPO from the same agent twice. We also know that due to his public campaign against the lottery, Morkt is the person people are most likely to tell when it happens, thus skewing the proportions a bit. We do not know how many of those BPOs have been awarded, so we don't know what proportion of BPOs have gone to repeat winners, even if Morkt weren't skewing the results with his campaign. We do not know how many potential winners there are, or what the average number of RP held by each one is.
We're missing at least 2 critical pieces of information in order to conclude there is something wrong, and what we do know isn't objective information.
You've gone completely mad, Morkt. You have no rational reason to think the system is broken. You have anecdotal evidence within a contextual vacuum.
Yes, I do research (3 agents), and I've received nothing so far, but unless your default position is to assume the system is broken a priori, you cannot reasonably conclude the system is broken.
maybe screaming will help
YOU ARE AN IDIOT. it's called ingnoring the facts. wake up and see the problem.
______________________________________________
Hellmar > sorry for the attitude, playing a n00b character through the current state just left me a bit bitter
dev chat: Mar 18, 2004
hellmar> "you lot are just so clever you have a good history for out smarting us :-S "
dev chat: Feb 12, 2004 |
Kralizec
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Posted - 2004.03.26 01:32:00 -
[38]
I agree something seems fishy. Morkt is only mentioning interceptor bps, there have been similar things happening with the other bp types! Even if this isn't 100% something is bugged it is definately proof enough that it needs further investigation and something done to restore confidence in the system.
This seems like those of us who actualy do the research missions spending money on supplies are being penalized while those who log in reset agent are getting the rewards. between 3 chars in my small corp we have 9 research projects. Thats two rpm books costing a total of 80mil which seems pointless with the way the system is flawed.
fix the system if its broken (and apears that way), if you maintain its working let us see some evidence to counter what we already know to prove otherwise.
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Skillz
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Posted - 2004.03.26 03:24:00 -
[39]
Edited by: Skillz on 26/03/2004 03:26:59
Well if so, CCP should take the easy way out. Increase the rate of bp releases of the same kind of module.
BTW: If I got 5 bpo from the same agent, I'd bug report it. If CCP woulden't consider it to be a bug, I woulden't sell the bpo. I'd monopolize it's market.
Then again, this everything can also be a little story that carebears have invented, just to serve their own private interests.
Keep on flaming, lamers.
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Sabahl
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Posted - 2004.03.26 03:30:00 -
[40]
Kind of missing the point there Skillz. If they did increase the release of theBPs then, given the info we have, the same people would merely be receiving more of the same BPs.
Is that really what you want?
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kieron
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Posted - 2004.03.26 03:45:00 -
[41]
Morkt, I got your e-mail and have forwarded it to TomB. As soon as I have more information, I'll pass it along.
kieron
Community Manager,
EVE Online
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Vannessa
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Posted - 2004.03.26 03:48:00 -
[42]
I find the whole thing quite worrying tbh. I specialised in manufacturing and trained skills high to cope with tech II manufacturing.
I have been doing stoopid r&d missions (which amount to costing an absolute fortune) since they were introduced.
I have yet to be offered anything, which i could handle, as it is a lottery after all, but now it looks like the system is shockingly flawed and yet again either the wrong people are getting the cream or some paeople are getting the whole god damn dairy.
Kinda Blows Fresian Blues full time tbh.
CCP sort this out for the love of god , A fair system is now showing definate and apparently proveable signs of being extremely unfair. Which means all my training and r&d time has basically been a complete and utter waste of time.
Manufacturer of fine cruisers
All models made
Free valet with every purchase
'The cruiser in front is from Vannessa corp'
Contact: Vannessa ingame to negotiate prices |
Sally
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Posted - 2004.03.26 04:00:00 -
[43]
Based on
- the history of the game
- the introduction of new game concepts which have major flaws
- having a lot of half implemented game features
- seeing how game mechanics are being changed all the time without allowing the players to respec
you will come to what conclusion?
--
Stories: #1
--
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Yukka Detac
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Posted - 2004.03.26 04:39:00 -
[44]
Just an aside:
Statistically, you only need 23 people in a room in order to have a 50/50 chance that two of them will have the same birthday.
This holds despite the fact that there are 365 days in a year.
A full statistical analysis requires much more information that we are currently privy to. I suspect CCP will have to hire a full time statistician just to handle the complaints.
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StealthNet
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Posted - 2004.03.26 05:30:00 -
[45]
It's really hard to code random libraries. any computer expert, good programmer or security specialist knows that a perfect random generator code does not exist.
From time to time, someone finds a flaw in a major random generator code used everywhere, mostly with cryptography. I don't need to further detail the repercussions of such occurence.
Now, imagine that we have a lottery. A "lottery" means random code, otherwise, it wouldn't be random or a lottery.
But this lottery is different, because it has a weight from the research points. If someone has a better chance to get an item due to his RPs, then this approach itself denies the random code itself too. It "can't" be a lotteyr simply because there are RPs.
so, we can't have a "lottery" based on a better chance due to research points. Or you give it randomly, or you give it through a RP based queue. I don't know if Im making myself clear enough, but it's kinda impossible to have a weight queue and introduce a random code to sort it out. It stops being random! What ppl can do is, make a system that is "suficiently scrambled" to avoid repetitions. But again, it calls for the introduction of clear rules like
exec lottery
while winner got bpo before then
begin
exclude winer from queue;
exec lottery;
end;
... to avoid the anomalies.
imho, the whole lottery idea misses the point, and can't work as supposed / intended, never. There will always be anomalies from time to time, no matter what. A better solution must be found.
But thats just me, Im tired and sleepy. gn all
_______________________________________________
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MalFunction
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Posted - 2004.03.26 06:51:00 -
[46]
just to inform you all
received a T2 BPO in the field of Amarrian Starship Engineering.
Costed me approx 20k Research points
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Golgrath
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Posted - 2004.03.26 07:40:00 -
[47]
Quote:
so, we can't have a "lottery" based on a better chance due to research points. Or you give it randomly, or you give it through a RP based queue. I don't know if Im making myself clear enough, but it's kinda impossible to have a weight queue and introduce a random code to sort it out. It stops being random! What ppl can do is, make a system that is "suficiently scrambled" to avoid repetitions.
Of course it's possible. Combine all the researchers into one big array with one slot per research point. Generate a random number in range of the array indices. Look who owns that slot. Give BP to that player. Remove the winner's slots from the array.
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Psy Corp
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Posted - 2004.03.26 07:54:00 -
[48]
Edited by: Psy Corp on 26/03/2004 07:56:24
Quote:
I've now received reports of FIVE people who have been awarded Elite Frigate BPos twice.
well i know two that has gotten 2 interceptor bps of the same ship each  not from the same agent.. one got with a few days between.. other one had like 2-3 weeks befor he got his second inteceptor bp
so thats 4 inteceptor bps to only 2 persons
I Have The Power Of The Mighty Lo.0lipop..
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TGIF
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Posted - 2004.03.26 09:07:00 -
[49]
Ah well, after a while people who do agent missions quit the game and move on. CCP then wonders why only a few do agent missions ( the ones who get the bp's) and then start fixing it. Great system. Hope tech3 gets released the same way, maybe i should suck up to t0ri or papa smurf for getting in the right que. 
- - -
Absinthe Fueled |
Hardin
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Posted - 2004.03.26 09:17:00 -
[50]
I was made aware last night of a friend who I trust that he had recieved 2 tech2 BPOs within 24hrs from the same agent... the second time he won he had 80 RP...
Now it is supposedely a lottery - so its perfectly feasible that this happened. Also as the majority of RP agent runners have small RP totals (as revealed by PapaSmurf) it is more likely to go to someone with a small RP total.
However by the same token for a BPO to go to the same runner through the same agent with a small total twice in a row beggars belief.
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Juan Andalusian
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Posted - 2004.03.26 09:32:00 -
[51]
CCP are just lucky that the last 50 games or so that have gone gold are completely crap.
Why worry about Tech II so much? It's fairly obvious that this "Recycle, Rinse, Reapeat" form of introducing what they deem is "content" ain't gonna change anything, everything is going to be the same, it will just have a different number... wether it works properly/fairly or not.
Take a look in the CSM.. Skaz's first question. Look at the answer, if you can call that an answer, he gets.
We've been playing follow the patch for 3/4 of a year. Do you seriously expect anything?
If i was CCP i would have coded Tech II distribution like this on purpose... just to take the ****.
**Pain is meant to be felt** |
McWatt
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Posted - 2004.03.26 10:57:00 -
[52]
Edited by: McWatt on 26/03/2004 11:01:18
i too think that there are 2 problems:
1. the double BP to same guy bug
2. the system in general
to 1.
looking at the history of missions, i m not suprised to see some "irregularities".
(sorry, my knowledge of combinatorics is all but perfect!)
* the system ccp is using is one of those "drawing balls from cups situations, with/without putting back" that most of you will remember from school.
* the system they are using is a complicated one, we are surely mising some informations (which is good imo, as a system which is calculateable for everyone would be rather boring)
a) there are lots of cups with different BPs
b) some BPs can be handed out via different cups (ships)
c) BPs seem to trickle out over time(this allows ppl to regain some points and get a second one)
* the situation in a double handout of same BP via same agent is an eassier situation.
and it is very different from this one:
Quote:
Statistically, you only need 23 people in a room in order to have a 50/50 chance that two of them will have the same birthday.
This holds despite the fact that there are 365 days in a year.
it s rather similar to the "lottery winner hit s jackpot twice in a row" or the famous "lottery winner hit by lightning on same day" situation.
it s simply extremly unlikely to happen to multiple ppl
to 2.
as the current system has some other drawbacks as well, and as ccp is looking into the subject anyway (i hope!) i guess it s a good idea to use this topic to talk about additional improvements. (though they shouldn t be mixed up with the problem at hand)
here s what i think:
* dedicated researchers, especialy if concentrated on a limited field, should have the biggest chance of drawing a BP, not one random small fish in the barrel.
* it would be great if player action would trigger the release of BPs. devs adding them when they seem fit feels lame to me.
* (you re going to love this one!)
tech 2 production and BP efficiancy research should be limited to systems with sec rating 0.4 or below.
a) this makes much more interaction possible
b) makes them an "advanced" game feature
c) takes some focus from high sec.
in high sec there s very little that you can do against a tech 2 monopoly, and it s particularly sad if it was generated by a bug!
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Nemesis I
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Posted - 2004.03.26 11:17:00 -
[53]
I dont mind the lottery idea, I do feel there is a problem with its coding with this evidence.
I will simply adapting to the bug however, as history shows CCP wont react quickly to this!
Nem
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Aralis
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Posted - 2004.03.26 11:22:00 -
[54]
Just adding my support to this topic. Only person in our corp to get a BPO got it after 4 days of research with a low level agent. Compared with many long lasting projects (I have one with over 32k rp). Individually doesn't prove everything but you hear the same from everyone just about. (Yes I read one guy got one with 20k - sounds like the more you have the less likely it is.)
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Griffin Smith
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Posted - 2004.03.26 12:17:00 -
[55]
How about this, give each bpo a set no. of research points needed to get it, or a set no. of rp in different fields to get it. then allow the player to set the no. of rp they wish to spend in each field to gain a certain type of bpo.
Then when they have completed the research and get the bpo that they sought they lose the rp they have alotted to get the bpo. That will mean if u want to get good or better bpo's u'll need to continue gaining rp so that u can BUY the bpo with ur rp.
This system is fairer then a lottery as those who have done the work in research and have a large no. of rp will be able to BUY bpo's, where as those who have just started can also get bpo's but of a lesser value as they haven't yet done the research to get rp.
It would be nice also to have tradable research points so that everyone in a corp can contribute to getting bpo's that the corp wants, like isk in the wallet.
All that is truely urs, is whats in ur head. |
Athule Snanm
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Posted - 2004.03.26 12:22:00 -
[56]
Repeated with some additions from the missions forum:
Statistically the BPs going to non-specialists is not a suprise, given the evidence we have. People who go on about things like 'I have 10 times the chance, twice the chance, etc' are looking at it from the wrong point of view. The highest R&D researcher a few weeks ago had a probability of winning in their field of 0.76%. That is, roughly 99.24% chance of not winning. If the same researcher had just idled their agent then they'd have a chance of 0.29% - ie 99.71% of not getting one. Let's say that a lowish earner is getting a 10th of their R&D (I suspect the ratio when you discount multipliers is less, but let's say it's a 10th) then the chances of winning are 0.03% - ie 99.97% not going to get a BP.
So let's look at those figures: 99.24, 99.71, 99.97 - no matter if you work your guts out or sit back sipping G&Ts all day you are basically unlikely to get a BP in any given draw. Because there are tonnes of small projects, odds are that most of the BPs will go to them. It's like buying 100 lottery tickets in the thoughts that you will then be guaranteed to win the jackpot - it just doesn't work like that. This is the world of ants that PapaSmurf was talking about. The only significant difference is whether you're in a lottery or not - as if you're not you'll never win. My personal opinion is that with the current setup doing R&D agent missions is probably a waste of time. I stopped doing them weeks ago.
The other side of the issue is the duplicate winners - this is phenomenally unlikely, especially for the rarer BPs where people probably aren't turning them down. The fact that it appears to have happened on several occasions already screams out for further and careful investigation - or at least some very solid counters to the speculations on the forums which are likely to just get louder and louder as time goes by.
As I see it there are two ways to counter the statistical skewing towards people with small projects as a group and thus crowding out the specialists.
First off, the R&D missions could give a much bigger bonus. Not double, but more like 100 or 1000 times the idling rate. This would still leave people with low points the chance of winning, but their chances would be much smaller as a group vs the specialists as a group. I am a little dubious about this as it turns missioning into even more of a treadmill than it currently is, but if these missions were long, involved and difficult then these feeling would probably be minimised.
Secondly there could be an 'advanced science project skill' requiring the equivalent science skill at 5. The skill itself should only be available from corp missions that need a standing of 9+ - and thus be very rare and hard work to come by. The skill would give 200% bonus per level or more. This would be my preferred solution. Again it would weigh heavily against alts and people dabbling in research, without excluding them completely.
_______________________________
Doomheim - EVE's only hygiene! |
Danton Marcellus
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Posted - 2004.03.26 13:29:00 -
[57]
As for the fix make it so that only people with an excess of 20k RP even enter the lottery for more potent blueprints to be released, that'd put a cap on the number of people exploiting the flawed system cancelling their research after having struck out on the initial break-off point.
Let the exploiters have the frigates and give the rest of us a shot at the cruisers and battleships.
Convert Stations
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Lucre
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Posted - 2004.03.26 13:50:00 -
[58]
Corp mate has been researching ship engineering since a few days after Castor. Without success. He gets RPM, starts a new project and within days gets an Interceptor bpo from the second agent.
Yes, it's statistically possible that the win would come from his 200 rp agent rather than his 20000 rp agent. But the odds were 100:1 against it...
Anyone else had similar experiences? Because if they have it again moves from possible-but-might-happen-to-someone and into the probability-lottery-is-bugged territory.
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Scalor Valentis
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Posted - 2004.03.26 13:58:00 -
[59]
I'd like to point out, that of course they got multiple
BPs from the SAME agent, so will I eventually.
I'm only doing research for one agent, so she
will be the one who gives the BPs...
I just don't see the point people are making
about getting BPs from the same agent.
Multiple BPs is a different thing, however.
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Juan Andalusian
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Posted - 2004.03.26 14:14:00 -
[60]
Their point is that winners are being awarded twice, and to top it off they are being awarded the same BP twice.
**Pain is meant to be felt** |
Morkt Drakt
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Posted - 2004.03.26 14:16:00 -
[61]
Quote:
I just don't see the point people are making
about getting BPs from the same agent.
They got a BPO - RPs get zero'd, within two weeks they got another BPO, the exact same type of BPO.
Its significant that its the same agent and not a 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th or 6th one (or even another account char) because the chances of it occuring on the same agent are so astronimically high.
The fact that some people only have one agent, and thus are bound to, given infinite years, get repeat wins on that agent, is not at issue.
Same BP, within a very short time, from same agent is.
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Harisdrop
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Posted - 2004.03.26 14:18:00 -
[62]
Quote:
Quote:
I just don't see the point people are making
about getting BPs from the same agent.
They got a BPO - RPs get zero'd, within two weeks they got another BPO, the exact same type of BPO.
Its significant that its the same agent and not a 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th or 6th one (or even another account char) because the chances of it occuring on the same agent are so astronimically high.
The fact that some people only have one agent, and thus are bound to, given infinite years, get repeat wins on that agent, is not at issue.
Same BP, within a very short time, from same agent is.
What are you saying. It could never be !!!!!!!!!
--------------------------
Garsh ma it soo cool killing people in there space thingies |
Harisdrop
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Posted - 2004.03.26 14:27:00 -
[63]
Please move to Idea Lab forum.
--------------------------
Garsh ma it soo cool killing people in there space thingies |
Tease
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Posted - 2004.03.26 15:41:00 -
[64]
Quote:
Please move to Idea Lab forum.
why? so this issue can be "officially" ignored instead of just plain ignored?
-----------------------------------------
[2003.12.17 06:35:20] Corwin > Orvolle is .4? Doesn't that mean that it's
less than .5 ? and isn't .5 what starts the danger level?
[2003.12.30 07:15:50] Corwin > Tech 2, IE expanded cargo holds I, MIning
lasers 2, etc.... TL2 is being released all around you
[2003.12.30 07:21:20] Corwin > tech 2 is released to players. Some players
are busy researching the BPs before building stuff. Others are sitting on
the BPs making copies to make money off of them that way |
Orestes
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Posted - 2004.03.26 15:45:00 -
[65]
It¦s not being ignored ..
Already forwarded to a number of people.
Join the IC! |
Morkt Drakt
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Posted - 2004.03.26 15:50:00 -
[66]
Edited by: Morkt Drak on 26/03/2004 15:52:15
Quote:
Quote:
Please move to Idea Lab forum.
why? so this issue can be "officially" ignored instead of just plain ignored?
Its not being ignored. (Just ignore Hari he cyber-stalks my posts just to post stuff like that. hes been doing it for weeks now)
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Tease
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Posted - 2004.03.26 15:59:00 -
[67]
Edited by: Tease on 26/03/2004 16:00:47
Quote:
It¦s not being ignored ..
Already forwarded to a number of people.
that's what we've been getting told now for 2 or 3 months.
we keep being told that it's "being looked into", meanwhile more and more people are giving up altogether because nothing is being done.
-----------------------------------------
[2003.12.17 06:35:20] Corwin > Orvolle is .4? Doesn't that mean that it's
less than .5 ? and isn't .5 what starts the danger level?
[2003.12.30 07:15:50] Corwin > Tech 2, IE expanded cargo holds I, MIning
lasers 2, etc.... TL2 is being released all around you
[2003.12.30 07:21:20] Corwin > tech 2 is released to players. Some players
are busy researching the BPs before building stuff. Others are sitting on
the BPs making copies to make money off of them that way |
Orestes
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Posted - 2004.03.26 16:03:00 -
[68]
Quote:
that's what we've been getting told now for 2 or 3 months.
we keep beeing told that it's "being looked into", meanwhile more and more people are giving up altogether because nothing is being done.
Not really. What you see and what is happening are often two entirely dfferent things.
PapaSmurf is investigating. Judging by his presence in IRC, as well as his comments on the boards, he never makes statements out of the blue. If PS says he will investigate , he will investigate.
I passed this link to some people (not that they hadn't already noticed the thread), because I agree with Morkt. Whilst this is being investigates, it would be a good idea to halt research on limited, high-prifile blueprints, such as Interceptor blueprints.
Join the IC! |
Arcadian
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Posted - 2004.03.26 16:18:00 -
[69]
Soon as they announced the method of giving out T2 BP's I stopped doing research agent missions..... Waste of time.... the fact that it would be FUBAR is pretty damn predictable based on past CCP history.
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Mon Palae
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Posted - 2004.03.26 17:04:00 -
[70]
FYI: Papa Smurf has replied to this in the Missions Forum.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Papa Smurf:
There are a bunch of rumours going on about the lottery and various theories about how to exploit it.
Yes, I have heard the rumours.
I'm looking into the issue, have and will be adding even more logging to properly analyze the distribution. Until I've finished analyzing the data, there is nothing new worthwhile for me to say on the subject however. This does not mean that I'm ignoring the issue, and it doesn't mean that I'll have a result tomorrow or the day after.
SOURCE: The "Lottery Situation"
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Agent Shield
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Posted - 2004.03.26 17:49:00 -
[71]
Quote:
Its like collecting airmiles day after day, but having to pay for them and not being able to cash them in.
And if you have my bad luck, after collecting the required amount of miles to cash in; they move the carrot another 5k miles to use them. It happened to me that I needed 20k miles, got them, then went to cash, now the rules are 25k miles for same ticket.
If this lottery is abandoned/changed, I just wonder how far the carrot will move this time.
Agent Shield |
drunkenmaster
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Posted - 2004.03.26 19:52:00 -
[72]
Just for the record, I got an Ares (frig) BPO with my 'since castor' total of 9k RP. I haven't had a second one yet. If I do, I'll let you all know.
.
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Asmodia
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Posted - 2004.03.27 12:44:00 -
[73]
I have 4 mission projects running and no BPO, but i am still happy. I got a nice mission with 4 nice npc cruisers. Looks like the agent database in under constrution :D
I can not confirm a bug with double BPO, i never got one.
btw. when the unlimited BPCs (T1) will be changed ?
------------------------------------------------
CEO of Spectre Syndicate - Curse Alliance
------------------------------------------------ |
NightDragon
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Posted - 2004.03.27 23:04:00 -
[74]
you know i dont think we would be so mad, as long as people who got a blueprint get another one in such a quick time, also, i think the R&D should be you pick a project, and you pick what you want to get, then its a random number that you need to research toget that BP, and then it should also be based on how many other people are picking that same BPC and then let it be randomized on who gets it next |
Ankh
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Posted - 2004.03.28 00:11:00 -
[75]
Quote:
Whilst this is being investigates, it would be a good idea to halt research on limited, high-prifile blueprints, such as Interceptor blueprints.
Oh this is SOOOO encouraging... 24,000 RP's under my belt researching starships and you advise me to stop researching? C'mon guys. This thread is about the fair allocation of the few bp's available for starships etc, not which research subjects are more likely to give you a bp.
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Fester Addams
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Posted - 2004.03.28 02:16:00 -
[76]
The problem with this is its all based on hersay, Morkt has himself stated this.
I have personally not heard of anyone getting 2 BPO in a row like it is described here but if people say that is the case then I think its up to CCP to investigate... wich they are *yay*
Untill Papa Smurf comes back with the verdict I will consider this a moot issue.
There have been far too many "this is how you beat the spread" posts on all things from how to get an implant to how to make NPC drop better loot.
I have found that playing like the devs intended (I think) seems to in the long run pay off.
In short, I will remain sceptical about this untill a dev, papa I guess would be most probable, comes out and confirms it.
I am however expecting him to deny it, sadly there are alot of ppl who claim they have gotten this or that.
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Kulath
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Posted - 2004.03.28 02:40:00 -
[77]
Couldn't agree more. The lottery is broken and this is finally the first time I'm speaking out on the forums about it. I actually wrote CCP about it and basically got told to ----off. They can't face the fact they've screwed this up worse then they screwed Miner 2's up. They should have left it where they were gonna do invention and reverse engineering. And I've actually restarted my first agent and currently have 5 research agents and training for a 6th. And I still won't get a damn thing. In fact have over half our corp doing research projects and have only received 1 T2 bpo to date. Sorry but if you ask me, this brings back memories of another game, Everquest, where people were setting up friends and themselves to receive all the good items.
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