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Shadarle
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Posted - 2008.03.06 06:36:00 -
[1]
Looks like the speculators have hit the mineral market. Price explosions all over.
I'm guessing this is due in part to the GS hulkscapades, some speculators, manipulators jumping in, and a general upward trend that seemed to be due for some time now.
The question is, how high do prices go? My guesses:
Trit: 3.6
Pyer: 7-8
Mex: Stays about the same, maybe a small increase
Iso: Stays about the same.
Nocx: Not sure, but I have the feeling that nocx is greatly undervalued. I could see it jump dramatically, a higher percentage jump than any other mineral.
Zyd: Drop in price a little bit.
Mega: Drop in price even less than zyd.
Guess we'll see what happens.
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Shadarle
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Posted - 2008.03.06 06:46:00 -
[2]
Don't want to edit my original, since I made predictions in it and I want to see if I was right or wrong and to have no one question if I changed anything.
It seems mex may indeed go up a bit. Having done more checking throughout empire I'm going to say Mex will go up at least to 36 if not 40ish. It seems supply is a lot lower than I first realized from my first check.
And Pyer has already exploded it seems. It's already a whole point up... a 20% jump since I posted this. Guess I was right on the money about that.
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Amicus Pauperi
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Posted - 2008.03.06 07:12:00 -
[3]
So how much of your isk did you spend buying up minerals before and after this post?
Economic PvP - Cornering Jita 4-4 |
Nasta443
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Posted - 2008.03.06 08:10:00 -
[4]
i predict trit will go over 4 isk its the natural thing to happen because everyone wishes for growth and profit
this will probably happen right after the patch hits so i'm buying all the trit before you greedy guys get in... ha!
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Treelox
Amarr
Market Jihadist Revolutionary Party
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Posted - 2008.03.06 08:28:00 -
[5]
 Originally by: Nasta443
i predict trit will go over 4 isk
...shuttles....you...<cough>.faceless..idiot
--
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YouGotRipped
Gallente
Ewigkeit
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Posted - 2008.03.06 08:32:00 -
[6]
Originally by: Treelox
Originally by: Nasta443
i predict trit will go over 4 isk
...shuttles....you...<cough>.faceless..idiot
I hereby appoint Treelox my personal representative when dealing with such people. His words are as good as mine.
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YouGotRipped
Gallente
Ewigkeit
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Posted - 2008.03.06 08:36:00 -
[7]
Edited by: YouGotRipped on 06/03/2008 08:38:28
As for the matter at hand, unless Goonswarm have beem more busy than EBANK's personnel (which is impossible given Ricdic's dedication to nullify all kinds of competition) what we're seeing is the result of manipulation on a grand scale.
All that was needed was a wide spread rumor to serve as pretext and the GS hulk hunting was it.
Prices will get back in line after a while.
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YouGotRipped
Gallente
Ewigkeit
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Posted - 2008.03.06 08:52:00 -
[8]
Originally by: Amicus Pauperi
So how much of your isk did you spend buying up minerals before and after this post?
I call forth the bald guy to answer this (in all his fairness as he usually puts it).
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Karanth
Gallente
Eve's Brothers of Destiny
Free Trade Zone.
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Posted - 2008.03.06 08:56:00 -
[9]
It's bad form to multipost like that.
Also, I'll be glad if Nocx goes up a good amount. Even a 20% boost will make me a very happy person.
"Current Earth-Destruction Status" |
Nasta443
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Posted - 2008.03.06 09:12:00 -
[10]
Originally by: Treelox
Originally by: Nasta443
i predict trit will go over 4 isk
...shuttles....you...<cough>.faceless..idiot
lol you fail is so obvious....
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Rho'varo
Parvo Universalis
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Posted - 2008.03.06 09:20:00 -
[11]
Originally by: Treelox
Originally by: Nasta443
i predict trit will go over 4 isk
...shuttles....you...<cough>.faceless..idiot
Well, if (i) shuttles (and similar items) are removed to eliminate the price cap on low ends, and (ii) this change happens in the patch tentatively set for 2008-03-11, then (iii) now's the time for some large-scale mineral price speculation, no?
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Nasta443
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Posted - 2008.03.06 10:09:00 -
[12]
Originally by: Rho'varo
Originally by: Treelox
Originally by: Nasta443
i predict trit will go over 4 isk
...shuttles....you...<cough>.faceless..idiot
Well, if (i) shuttles (and similar items) are removed to eliminate the price cap on low ends, and (ii) this change happens in the patch tentatively set for 2008-03-11, then (iii) now's the time for some large-scale mineral price speculation, no?
See. This man wishes for growth and profit.
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Kazuo Ishiguro
House of Marbles
Zzz
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Posted - 2008.03.06 10:11:00 -
[13]
FYP:
Originally by: Shadarle
My guesses:
...
Nocx: Buy Nocx now! Buy! Buy! I want the value of my investments to increase!
My research services
Spreadsheets: Top speed calculation - Halo Implant stats |
Nyphur
Pillowsoft
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Posted - 2008.03.06 11:08:00 -
[14]
Originally by: Rho'varo
Well, if (i) shuttles (and similar items) are removed to eliminate the price cap on low ends, and (ii) this change happens in the patch tentatively set for 2008-03-11, then (iii) now's the time for some large-scale mineral price speculation, no?
The risk is too high for anyone without insider info. And let's not pretend that volunteers and RL friends of devs haven't used insider info to play the market in the past.
Eve-Tanking.com - We're sorry, something happened. |
Ricdic
Caldari
Corporate Research And Production Pty Ltd
Zzz
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Posted - 2008.03.06 11:58:00 -
[15]
Here's hoping Isogen goes up. I stockpiled an absolute ton of it some time ago and have been sitting on it waiting on a rainy day. Well, the sky is cloudy 
http://oldforums.eveonline.com/?a=topic&threadID=500043
Largest Empire Research Alliance in EVE! |
Confuzer
Polaris Project
Curatores Veritatis Alliance
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Posted - 2008.03.06 12:08:00 -
[16]
Yes rise! rise!
Pay me back my investment in hiring GS 
-----------------
Destiny is not a matter of chance. It is a matter of choice. It's not a thing to be waited for - it is a thing to be achieved. |
Yuck Fu
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Posted - 2008.03.06 12:10:00 -
[17]
Originally by: Ricdic
Here's hoping Isogen goes up. I stockpiled an absolute ton of it some time ago and have been sitting on it waiting on a rainy day. Well, the sky is cloudy
Isnt Isogen held almost %100 stable because of Mission mining omber?
Im sorry to say you may be waiting a long time
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YouGotRipped
Gallente
Ewigkeit
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Posted - 2008.03.06 12:24:00 -
[18]
Edited by: YouGotRipped on 06/03/2008 12:29:27
Originally by: Yuck Fu
Originally by: Ricdic
Here's hoping Isogen goes up. I stockpiled an absolute ton of it some time ago and have been sitting on it waiting on a rainy day. Well, the sky is cloudy
Isnt Isogen held almost %100 stable because of Mission mining omber?
Im sorry to say you may be waiting a long time
Isogen is far too abundant (kernite in high sec amarr space, omber in gallente, not to mention the copious amounts you get from recycling modules), all this related to really low demands for production.
Of course people might now switch to mining higher trit and pye containing ores instead. We'll have to wait and see if that's enough to cause a shortage of iso but I wouldn't get my hopes up.
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Cergorach
Amarr
The Helix Foundation
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Posted - 2008.03.06 12:34:00 -
[19]
Edited by: Cergorach on 06/03/2008 12:36:36
While shuttles might provide tritanium @3.6 isk per tritanium, that's only when you have a perfect refine and a standing of 6.7 with the corp your refining at. Obviously many folks have that, but many don't. So the folks that have perfect refining wouldn't be interested in purchasing tritanium above 3.6 isk, but the folks that don't have perfect refining might buy at a higher price, not to mention all the folks that don't know about the shuttle 'trick'. It would be fun if CCP made the shuttle scale dynamically with the price of tritanium, leaving shuttles to the player base would also be very interesting, just not very practical.
Now i'll only have to get that Tritanium I bought at 2 isk to market, the problem is that it's all located in low-sec ;-)
Wasn't CCP working on getting T1 modules out of the loot tables? If/when that happens, module mining would probably be not as profitable. Prices of Isogen might rice then (if the above is actually true).
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cosmoray
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Posted - 2008.03.06 13:26:00 -
[20]
What I like about this situation (if it is in fact GS activities), is that it is not the direct loss of barges that is causing the short supply but the fear aspect.
What is clear is that while there is the potential carnage going on, quite a lot of miners are doing other things while this blows over. The fear effect may also mean people are stockpiling minerals to protect their industrial base.
I honestly didn't think that GS could have this much effect, but props to them.
GS guys, send me a note when you start your next campaign and I will go long on mins!
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Danari
Amarr
Viper Squad
Triumvirate.
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Posted - 2008.03.06 13:43:00 -
[21]
The only mineral with legs is Trit, and nothing is fundamentally different than the last time it spiked over 3.3. It'll go no higher than it did 5.5 months ago. It's unlikely the rolling average of the mineral aggregate will rise another 2 points. The aggregate still hasn't topped its short-term high from 3 weeks ago.
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Admiral Nova
Strike Team Nova
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Posted - 2008.03.06 14:51:00 -
[22]
The reason iso and nocx are so cheap is that they're plentiful in drone loot. Omber is the least valuable ore at the moment due to the low price, so that has nothing to do with the low price of iso. The fact that it's found in Kernite which has the higher than historically priced Mex, probably contributes.
Trit will never hit 3.6 because people just reprocess shuttles at that level, and more so it indicates that part of the game is broken.
At the moment there is conflict in the north, south east and west, so we may see high end prices go up, and low end prices go down.
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Ulstan
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Posted - 2008.03.06 17:16:00 -
[23]
It seems a good time to get rid of stocks of trit, at least.
And yes, I feel sorry for anyone who mines Omber nowadays.
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Shadarle
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Posted - 2008.03.06 17:50:00 -
[24]
Trit is basically maxing out right now. Considering it was at 3.0 a few days ago that is a quick rise. Without shuttles it would likely be hitting 4.0 any day now.
Pyer, without a low cap, seems like it is ready to explode. It jumped last night, some people unloaded stock, but it seems to have jumped again. If Pyer doesn't hit 6+ I'd be surprised... it really seems supply is far under demand. If speculation hits this market expect a gigantic price hike. 100% seems plausible at least for some time.
Mex just got a major supply infusion recently, but even that appears to be drying up. The only question is how much spare mex is floating around. There isn't even close to the daily traded volume at current prices in Jita, so prices are likely to rise a bit, especially if speculators get involved here.
Nocx is iffy. I see it having great potential for growth, but I'm not sure how the demand is. I think it's so close that someone with 10-15 bil could speculate here, buying up all stock for 2-3 days, then unloading it all for a 50% profit. I'd do it myself if I had the spare ISK, I recently dumped a massive amount into other things which is ****ing me off because of how good this time is for speculating on minerals.
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Letrange
Minmatar
Chaosstorm Corporation
Apoapsis Multiversal Consortium
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Posted - 2008.03.06 18:32:00 -
[25]
Actually I think the conflict is the major contributer to the rise in mineral prices. Let's face it, the major drain on the trit supply is BS and Cap production. I don't know if you noticed but the inventory of cheap Typhoons got stripped out of Metro, Heim and Molten heath last weekend. So even with the rise in mineral prices it's still profitable to make BS (price is actually rising faster than the cost I think).
I'm well aware of what's going on in the Typhoon market as I'm currently in the middle of running that BS BPO experiment. Our alliance has miners but since we use current market prices as a barometer for the value of the ores mined (and consequently how much to compensate the miners), the mineral price has a direct impact on production costs. Before last weekend, there were arround 10-ish Typhoons available for under 60mil. Now the price of the cheapest one is 74mil or so (when I checked this morning). At one point last weekend the number of BS's on sale droped to 2 (both at prohibitive 80mil+ prices when there were still ones available in heim in the 60's). The thing is that with that level of pricing, those who have the BPO but have been avoiding producing any because the profit was too low for their tastes are getting back in the market, which will increase the demand for minerals in general.
It'll be interesting to see what happens this weekend.
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2008.03.06 19:54:00 -
[26]
Originally by: Shadarle
Trit is basically maxing out right now. Considering it was at 3.0 a few days ago that is a quick rise. Without shuttles it would likely be hitting 4.0 any day now.
Actually, even WITH shuttles, it can still go up to almost 4.4, since shuttle prices are also dynamic.
But, yeah, price over 3.7 would be highly unlikely.
1|2|3|4|5. |
Alz Shado
Ever Flow
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Posted - 2008.03.06 21:11:00 -
[27]
Edited by: Alz Shado on 06/03/2008 21:14:26
Traditionally I've noticed that when lowends soar, the highends tank, and vice versa. I can't really remember a time when Trit, Pyer, Zyd and Megacyte were all up over average at the same time for very long.
I do miss 600 isk Nocxium though. Those were the days!
As for where it's going, I'd have to say that the production of highends are more likely to keep up with demand, and the lowends might raise up slightly.
My guesses:
Tr 3.5
Py 5.5
Mx 35
Is 65
Nx 100
Zy 2500
Mg 2350
Mp 10000
-------------------
"Kill a man one is a murderer; kill a million, a conqueror; kill them all, a God." -- Jean Rostand |
Pang Grohl
Gallente
Sudo Corp
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Posted - 2008.03.06 22:48:00 -
[28]
Originally by: Shadarle
Trit is basically maxing out right now. Considering it was at 3.0 a few days ago that is a quick rise. Without shuttles it would likely be hitting 4.0 any day now.
Pyer, without a low cap, seems like it is ready to explode. It jumped last night, some people unloaded stock, but it seems to have jumped again. If Pyer doesn't hit 6+ I'd be surprised... it really seems supply is far under demand. If speculation hits this market expect a gigantic price hike. 100% seems plausible at least for some time.
Mex just got a major supply infusion recently, but even that appears to be drying up. The only question is how much spare mex is floating around. There isn't even close to the daily traded volume at current prices in Jita, so prices are likely to rise a bit, especially if speculators get involved here.
Nocx is iffy. I see it having great potential for growth, but I'm not sure how the demand is. I think it's so close that someone with 10-15 bil could speculate here, buying up all stock for 2-3 days, then unloading it all for a 50% profit. I'd do it myself if I had the spare ISK, I recently dumped a massive amount into other things which is ****ing me off because of how good this time is for speculating on minerals.
All of the low-end minerals can be extracted from NPC supplied goods in significant quantities. No one tends to talk about them because they aren't pure sources like shuttles are for trit, but they aren't hard to find.
The mid-range minerals (iso, mex, and nocx) will be the ones to watch, because there aren't pure enough sources of them on either the NPC market or in the asteroid belts.
***
Si non adjuvas, noces
(If you're not helping, you're hurting)
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Shadarle
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Posted - 2008.03.06 22:59:00 -
[29]
Originally by: Pang Grohl
All of the low-end minerals can be extracted from NPC supplied goods in significant quantities. No one tends to talk about them because they aren't pure sources like shuttles are for trit, but they aren't hard to find.
Yes, but at what price? If any of them had a real low price cap because of this then it would have an impact. But it doesn't seem they do as no one even talks about em.
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Astorothe
Aperture Science Industries
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Posted - 2008.03.06 23:59:00 -
[30]
The last four years of mining and stockpiling Veld will finally pay off!!! *shakes fist at the Eve gods* 
Deus Ex Machina ~ Eve Corp, Web Design & Gaming News |
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