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Amateratsu
Caldari Terra Incognita
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Posted - 2008.03.09 11:12:00 -
[1]
Can any enlightened market analists explain the massive drop in price of Tech II?
for example, couple months ago command ships were selling at over 200m. Now you can pick up a Sleipnir for a mere 124m, a drop of 38%.
Yet prices of the raw materials needed to build the TII construction componants appear to have remained steady.
Is it just a case of over supply and players selling at below invention/production costs just to keep ahead of the competition? Or is there something else going on?
Would be interested to hear others thoughts, to satisfy my curiosity
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Akyan
InQuest Ascension
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Posted - 2008.03.09 11:17:00 -
[2]
Originally by: Amateratsu
Can any enlightened market analists explain the massive drop in price of Tech II?
for example, couple months ago command ships were selling at over 200m. Now you can pick up a Sleipnir for a mere 124m, a drop of 38%.
Yet prices of the raw materials needed to build the TII construction componants appear to have remained steady.
Is it just a case of over supply and players selling at below invention/production costs just to keep ahead of the competition? Or is there something else going on?
Would be interested to hear others thoughts, to satisfy my curiosity
I would guess it is more than likely the much higher levels of competition between T2 producers. This being stimiluated by the increasing number of people messing around with invention.
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Lord WarATron
Amarr Black Nova Corp Band of Brothers
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Posted - 2008.03.09 11:26:00 -
[3]
Edited by: Lord WarATron on 09/03/2008 11:27:44 Edited by: Lord WarATron on 09/03/2008 11:26:49
Originally by: Amateratsu
Can any enlightened market analists explain the massive drop in price of Tech II?
for example, couple months ago command ships were selling at over 200m. Now you can pick up a Sleipnir for a mere 124m, a drop of 38%.
Yet prices of the raw materials needed to build the TII construction componants appear to have remained steady.
Is it just a case of over supply and players selling at below invention/production costs just to keep ahead of the competition? Or is there something else going on?
Would be interested to hear others thoughts, to satisfy my curiosity
before it was a sellers market. Lets say that you have built up 2 vagabonds for 20 mil each a year ago. Demand was such that people would pay upto 250mil+. Since only BPO owners could build, they would generally charge a premium where they can get away with one.
Now, you have more competitiors, so your profit margins decreased. Invention means that anyone can become a t2 manufacturere once they train up skills. And newer inventers are happy to undercut while maintaining a healthy profit. There is still healthy profit - just that there is more supply, and thus more competitive prices. --
Billion Isk Mission |
Malcanis
R.E.C.O.N. Black-Out
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Posted - 2008.03.09 11:40:00 -
[4]
Let's all take a moment to review the flavour of those sweet, sweet forum-tears cried by the T2 BPO owners a year ago.
Remember them, the ones who were saying there "wasn't all that much profit" in being a T2 BPO owner?
And now prices are 60-90% lower almost across the board. And that level is set from invented BPCs with negative ME.
mmmm... tasty tears.
CONCORD provide consequences, not safety; only you can do that. |
Valan
The Fated Odyssey.
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Posted - 2008.03.09 11:59:00 -
[5]
They will drop much lower we have the 'it's free' crowd now. They sell ships for less than it costs to build them.
They think minerals and things like datacores are free. They don't factor these into the cost of building.
I have a feeling most of these people are the isk sellers as they don't value time and need to churn the isk over quickly and will therefore constantly undercut.
/start sig I love old characters that post 'I've beeen playing the game four years' when I know their account has been sold on. /end sig |
Amateratsu
Caldari Terra Incognita
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Posted - 2008.03.09 12:00:00 -
[6]
It appears like inventors are selling at a loss. I got lucky with a streak of 4 5 run Succeeding allowing me to produce 20 Sleipnir's for approx 120m each (inc cost of inventing the bpc's).
Had only 1 or 2 of those jobs succeeded, the production costs would have been much higher, which makes me wonder how all these inventors are turning a profit.
Im well aware of the effect the intorduction of invention had on the bpo owners, but for inventors to sell at a loss makes no sense to me...
Unless they have a means to aquire the raw materials at heavily discounted prices
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Franga
NQX Innovations
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Posted - 2008.03.09 12:06:00 -
[7]
Originally by: Valan They will drop much lower we have the 'it's free' crowd now. They sell ships for less than it costs to build them.
They think minerals and things like datacores are free. They don't factor these into the cost of building.
I have a feeling most of these people are the isk sellers as they don't value time and need to churn the isk over quickly and will therefore constantly undercut.
Unfortunately, you are correct on most of these points. I don't have the hard data to back this up, but I'm sure you are hitting the nail on the head. Or at least hitting somewhere near the nail.
Many, many ISK buying fools now build and many, many more newbs who use the 'I get them on an unlimited supply from my agent' mentality. The same type of player who says: 'But if I mine it, it's free!'
But the guy above the guy I quoted was correct as well. Not much profit in t2 production? Whatever. Even now there is still plenty. Back then (2006), insane amounts. Check someone like Swaffer's wallet and tell me they were running on tight margins.
Originally by: Rachel Vend ... with 100% reliability in most cases ...
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000Hunter000
Gallente Missiles 'R' Us
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Posted - 2008.03.09 12:07:00 -
[8]
Tbh, it is going more and more to the part where there is no longer a monopoly on T2 goods, now the monopoly lies with those that moonmine the rare moonresources that are needed to create the advanced materials that are needed to build T2 parts.
_______________________________________________________ CCP, let us pay the online shop with Direct Debit!!!
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Malcanis
R.E.C.O.N. Black-Out
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Posted - 2008.03.09 12:17:00 -
[9]
Originally by: 000Hunter000 Tbh, it is going more and more to the part where there is no longer a monopoly on T2 goods, now the monopoly lies with those that moonmine the rare moonresources that are needed to create the advanced materials that are needed to build T2 parts.
Then there will be more sweet tears when CCP unlock the 0.4 sec moons ;o)
CONCORD provide consequences, not safety; only you can do that. |
Thenoran
Caldari The People's Liberation Army
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Posted - 2008.03.09 12:20:00 -
[10]
Originally by: Malcanis
Originally by: 000Hunter000 Tbh, it is going more and more to the part where there is no longer a monopoly on T2 goods, now the monopoly lies with those that moonmine the rare moonresources that are needed to create the advanced materials that are needed to build T2 parts.
Then there will be more sweet tears when CCP unlock the 0.4 sec moons ;o)
No more Papers needed and mining arrays allowed in 0.4...that be sweet ------------------------
Mining over 4000m3 per cycle...with a Rokh |
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Claude Lewis
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Posted - 2008.03.09 13:31:00 -
[11]
Originally by: Malcanis Let's all take a moment to review the flavour of those sweet, sweet forum-tears cried by the T2 BPO owners a year ago.
Remember them, the ones who were saying there "wasn't all that much profit" in being a T2 BPO owner?
And now prices are 60-90% lower almost across the board. And that level is set from invented BPCs with negative ME.
mmmm... tasty tears.
"that level is set from invented BPCs with negative ME" - still WAY above build cost for positive ME BPOs.
To be honest you've just shown yourself out as being bitter about never getting a T2 BPO with this comical little statement.
The only people i hear whining about T2 prices not being high enough are inventers. The ones who have driven the prices so low they cant break even, cutting their own throats 4tw!!
besides, who do you think fueled the increase in complex reaction prices? oo maybe guys who had been making 90-60% more on t2 modules and ships before invention and had a stack of money to throw into setting up mooon mining chains?
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Malcanis
R.E.C.O.N. Black-Out
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Posted - 2008.03.09 13:36:00 -
[12]
Originally by: Claude Lewis
Originally by: Malcanis Let's all take a moment to review the flavour of those sweet, sweet forum-tears cried by the T2 BPO owners a year ago.
Remember them, the ones who were saying there "wasn't all that much profit" in being a T2 BPO owner?
And now prices are 60-90% lower almost across the board. And that level is set from invented BPCs with negative ME.
mmmm... tasty tears.
"that level is set from invented BPCs with negative ME" - still WAY above build cost for positive ME BPOs.
To be honest you've just shown yourself out as being bitter about never getting a T2 BPO with this comical little statement.
The only people i hear whining about T2 prices not being high enough are inventers. The ones who have driven the prices so low they cant break even, cutting their own throats 4tw!!
besides, who do you think fueled the increase in complex reaction prices? oo maybe guys who had been making 90-60% more on t2 modules and ships before invention and had a stack of money to throw into setting up mooon mining chains?
What on earth are you talking about? I buy T2 stuffs and blow them up. I have about 5 SP in industry, which reflects my interest in manufacturing.
CONCORD provide consequences, not safety; only you can do that. |
Burnharder
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Posted - 2008.03.09 13:52:00 -
[13]
Prices have nose-dived on a lot of T2 items since invention came in, especially T2 monopoly items. Before my return to game, I was paying 15-18m PER cap recharger II! Now though, T2 is so cheap, you can't get the kind of prices on named T1 items across the board as you used to (from rat loot).
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Brea Lafail
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Posted - 2008.03.09 14:53:00 -
[14]
Originally by: Amateratsu Unless they have a means to aquire the raw materials at heavily discounted prices
That's the ticket. To match current market price on a lot of things (tach IIs for example) you need to produce the moon poo yourself, otherwise you got one more middleman to split the profit with.
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Zarin
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Posted - 2008.03.09 15:17:00 -
[15]
Trinity changed the decryptors to have a higher success rate and less material useage datacore prices have crashed too, so now it's not that expensive to invent, and you're only looking at 10-20% more wast than a BPO owner.
Even the mighty hulk BPO only makes about 240m/week now. (from something that once made billions per week).
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Meridius Dex
Amarr Foundation R0ADKILL
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Posted - 2008.03.09 15:36:00 -
[16]
Originally by: Amateratsu
Can any enlightened market analists explain the massive drop in price of Tech II?
for example, couple months ago command ships were selling at over 200m. Now you can pick up a Sleipnir for a mere 124m, a drop of 38%.
QFT I just saw a freaking Stabber Fleet Issue in the Jita market for 92M. Just a few weeks ago they were still at least 120. -- Meridius Dex --
Amarr = EVE on Hard setting |
Atreus Danerun
Amarr Caldari Bank
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Posted - 2008.03.09 15:40:00 -
[17]
Look at Eos. It is now selling at negative. I have been buying the ships from those who have been selling them under the "mineral" price and reprocessing them for my other T2 manufacture. I also have mothballed my Eos BPO, sine it is not worth to produce from it.
T2 SALES & SERVICE
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anomalousresult
Middleton and Mercer LLP The Omni Federation
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Posted - 2008.03.09 15:56:00 -
[18]
It doesn't seem too hard to work out. As more people get invention skills so more T2 items are produced without necessarily an increase in demand. Prices therefore drop.
Bring on T3.
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Ardent Rellik
Gallente MURAKAMI INDUSTRIES
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Posted - 2008.03.09 16:40:00 -
[19]
Who cares? I mean the T2 this, T2 that. There is no real manufacturing game anymore. Just bunch of ISK farmers getting into the game of invention and getting ISK in any way they can and crashing the market.
Whatever.... I sold all my T2 BPOS a while ago at good margins, allot of them are worthless now, and I am laughing all the way to the bank at the idiots who bought them for billions upon billions of ISK.
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Valan
The Fated Odyssey.
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Posted - 2008.03.09 17:02:00 -
[20]
If myself an Ardent are correct then this doesn't bode well for EVE.
80% of EVE are in high sec a lot of those are industry characters. If the market is crashed below profitability by isk sellers there is a large portion of the EVE universe suddenly out of the picture.
If I was CCP I would come up with some software monitoring to see where the isk is going form the prolific under sellers. Bannage!
/start sig I love old characters that post 'I've beeen playing the game four years' when I know their account has been sold on. /end sig |
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Riho
Mercenary Forces
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Posted - 2008.03.09 17:13:00 -
[21]
aye.. t2 stuff is getting lot cheaper... it makes me happy because my pvp ships get cheaper.. but then again it gimps my proffit from invention :P
in the last 2 months iv seen most mods i invent drop around 30% in price... ---------------------------------- This is Me, fighting stupidity one post at a time. PS: There are no computer BUGs, there is stuff called "Random Features"
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AleRiperKilt
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Posted - 2008.03.09 17:26:00 -
[22]
I readed in a dev blog CCP disbanded an small group that was holding almost all the BPOs and datacores keeping prices artificially high to have more ISK to sell. CCP reseeded these items back so now there is more competition and better prices. --- 1. Mine Ice in T1 Barge 2. Get suicide ganked by goons 3. ???? 4. PROFIT! |
Amateratsu
Caldari Terra Incognita
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Posted - 2008.03.09 17:27:00 -
[23]
This example says it all...
Raptor (Caldari Interceptor)
Perfect ME build cost approx 6m (if you buy the componants off the market) Invented BPC -5 ME build cost approx 10m (ignoring cost of inventing the bpc's)
Current Jita price for a Raptor...... 5.9m
Not a lot one can say to that....
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Thornat
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Posted - 2008.03.09 17:48:00 -
[24]
Its a funny thing about the Eve market it really hasn't functioned like a real market ever before so its always been very difficult to analyze. It's only recently that it started acting as expected and I believe a big part of that was the result of the game actually becoming a true free market.
Up until invention, in effect your ability to compete in the market was based on a lottery... literly. Can you get stupid lucky and get a T2 BPO or not would determine wether or not you could ever become a real player in the market. Sure you could compete in the Tech I market, but since most tech I items are easy to make and often rat droppings the market tends to be flooded everywhere you go and not really worth competing. I mean you would be better off mining and selling resources then using resources to make stuff and trying to sell it.
Since that has now changed with invention suddenly anyone who wants to get into a market can and as such oppertunities are everywhere not only for those building the items but for those mining the resources and those who are buying the items. More importantly the market has become more predictable and steady.
This however has been without question the plan all along in the development of the game. After all, T2 BPO's were a design mistake, I think at this point everyone at CCP can admit that and worse yet was the T2 Lottery. It has now been corrected with invention and the game is healthier for it.
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Quelque Chose
Gallente
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Posted - 2008.03.09 17:55:00 -
[25]
Originally by: Valan If myself an Ardent are correct then this doesn't bode well for EVE.
80% of EVE are in high sec a lot of those are industry characters. If the market is crashed below profitability by isk sellers there is a large portion of the EVE universe suddenly out of the picture.
If I was CCP I would come up with some software monitoring to see where the isk is going form the prolific under sellers. Bannage!
Think about what you're saying there:
1. ISK farmers are going to a whole lot of trouble to farm less ISK in more time.
2. They're doing this to deliberately make things cost less, thereby reducing demand for their own product: who needs to buy a ton of ISK when everything's cheap?
[obligatory] 3. ????? 4. Uh... profit? [/obligatory]
______________________________
"Eve Online is a massively multiplayer game about trolling in outer space." |
Valan
The Fated Odyssey.
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Posted - 2008.03.09 18:24:00 -
[26]
I agree completely and it will continue to a point where running a sweat shop is no longer profitable. So that all dpends on the strength of their local currency doesn't it?
Wouldn't even like to attempt to work out what the levels would be before it doesn't become worth it in the back of beyond. /start sig I love old characters that post 'I've beeen playing the game four years' when I know their account has been sold on. /end sig |
Grimpak
Gallente Trinity Nova Trinity Nova Alliance
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Posted - 2008.03.09 18:30:00 -
[27]
Edited by: Grimpak on 09/03/2008 18:33:52
Originally by: Amateratsu
This example says it all...
Raptor (Caldari Interceptor)
Perfect ME build cost approx 6m (if you buy the componants off the market) Invented BPC -5 ME build cost approx 10m (ignoring cost of inventing the bpc's)
Current Jita price for a Raptor...... 5.9m
Not a lot one can say to that....
however there's a reason why the raptor is called "craptor"
tbh many people go for the T2 ships invention and don't bother with module invention.
and that's where is the profit.
a 10-run cap recharger II bpc can yeld 11mil.
that's nearly over 2x more the production and invention costs with me.
and I have prod. eff. at lvl3.
oh and FYI, the most expensive part in inventing and producing T2 cap rechargers is the invention itself, wich at the price of the datacores atm is arround 3mil. another 2 mil for production costs and voillß: 5-6mil profit per 10-run bpc.
doesn't look that much, but I have to say that I started to invent just a few weeks ago. ---
Trinity Nova Mercenary Services Web Site - Nominated for the 2008 E-ON Magazine Awards |
Valan
The Fated Odyssey.
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Posted - 2008.03.09 18:32:00 -
[28]
Edited by: Valan on 09/03/2008 18:31:47 So people are building Raptors below cost because there is no demand?!?!?!?
/start sig I love old characters that post 'I've beeen playing the game four years' when I know their account has been sold on. /end sig |
Grimpak
Gallente Trinity Nova Trinity Nova Alliance
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Posted - 2008.03.09 18:35:00 -
[29]
Originally by: Valan Edited by: Valan on 09/03/2008 18:31:47 So people are building Raptors below cost because there is no demand?!?!?!?
there's a sweet spot where the demand drop starts to increase the price of the ship.
the raptor hasn't reach such spot yet. ---
Trinity Nova Mercenary Services Web Site - Nominated for the 2008 E-ON Magazine Awards |
Reem Fairchild
Minmatar Military Industrial Research
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Posted - 2008.03.09 18:42:00 -
[30]
Tech 2 prices are low because people are lemmings witn no business sense constantly rushing into invention in greater numbers expecting it to automatically be profitable no matter what (since it's tech 2).
Which is good for me because they stay away from the things I build in this way.
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