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Trit prices: where to next?

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Author	Thread Statistics \| Show CCP posts - 1 post(s)
Ki Anna Ki Tech Industries	Posted - 2008.04.15 16:53:00 - [1] Quote: NPC corporations will no longer be selling shuttles. With this in the patch notes, how high can we expect trit prices to rise? What is the next mineral cap from NPC sold items?
Amarr Citizen 155 Alternative Methods Research Group	Posted - 2008.04.15 17:05:00 - [2] woohoo, another trit thread. I predict the per unit of trit to rise to 1m per unit. ---------------------------------------------- Why do it the hard way when you can do it the AMARR way.
Akita T Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force	Posted - 2008.04.15 17:17:00 - [3] Well, it can only rise SO far before the highends come screeching down slowly, putting a stop to the rise. Besides, there's plenty of other stuff NPC corps sell, which still carry a morsel of tritanium in them, so it's a double whammy. Anyhow, I'd say it won't have much of an impact short of the knee-jerkish panicky reaction... average trit prices were already stabilised below perfect cheap shuttle reprocessing (3.6 per unit), and far below perfect expensive shuttle reprocessing (4.4 per unit)... or am I missing something ? The market might throw a small short-term hissy fit, but should go back to normal soon. ANYWAY, still, there will be some price-fluctuations around here, so doing whatever comes closest to short-selling right now might be a good idea... just get out of it before it compesnates back soon™ 1\|2\|3\|4\|5.
Pang Grohl Gallente Sudo Corp	Posted - 2008.04.15 17:36:00 - [4] The important question to ask is: Shuttle prices: Where to next? Oh, and go Dr.E!! This is exactly the kind of change EVE needs to slow down the deflationary trend in the small ships arena. *** Si non adjuvas, noces (If you're not helping, you're hurting)
Matthew Caldari BloodStar Technologies	Posted - 2008.04.15 17:36:00 - [5] Well, one thing you have to bear in mind is that this will have an effect on the trit market even with the price cap not in effect. People will still need shuttles for their shuttling properties. With NPC's not selling them, that means players will have to build them, and they'll have to use trit to do that. Taking figures from the Q42007 QEN, we know that the typical non-price-cap influenced level of sales of caldari shuttles is approx 200,000 per month. It takes at least 2500 trit to make a shuttle, so we get an increased demand for trit of 500 million units of trit per month. If we assume that the other 3 shuttle types are equally demanded, then that's 2 billion units per month of extra demand for trit. We also know that total traded volume of trit in December was approx 805 billion, so we're talking an increase in demand of about 0.25% of total traded volume. So yes, an effect, but I wouldn't expect it to be a large one. ------- There is no magic Wand of Fixing, and it is not powered by forum whines.
LaVista Vista Conservative Shenanigans Party	Posted - 2008.04.15 17:39:00 - [6] Oh well, since my thread in general discussion was removed, lets go on here. It's an interesting question, what is the next cap? Is it even gonna be reached? Hopefully it will at least create a more dynamic market. But i doubt we will see major changes in the long run.
Wadaya Caldari Trailerpark Industries	Posted - 2008.04.15 17:40:00 - [7] Just guessing 4.00 will be the new trit high price or there abouts. Pyerite will fall even further due to heavy mining of scordite for more trit, causing supply of pyerite to be saturated. Short term, I think alof of small manufacturers will take a hiatus until trit settles on a new price. Expect heavy manipulation from now through Sunday, gearing up for weekend sales. Good times :) Wad
Ki Anna Ki Tech Industries	Posted - 2008.04.15 17:43:00 - [8] Originally by: Matthew Taking figures from the Q42007 QEN, we know that the typical non-price-cap influenced level of sales of caldari shuttles is approx 200,000 per month. It takes at least 2500 trit to make a shuttle, so we get an increased demand for trit of 500 million units of trit per month. But how much of that was shuttles recycled into trit? I doubt that there is much fundamental demand for shuttles. Their primary selling point is one of convience. With that convience gone, how many people will opt for a rookie ship instead of a shuttle? I suppose that a study of demand for shuttles in 0.0 would be helpful to project future demand for high sec shuttles. However, I don't have access to that information.
Matthew Caldari BloodStar Technologies	Posted - 2008.04.15 18:19:00 - [9] Originally by: Ki Anna But how much of that was shuttles recycled into trit? Take a look at the graph in the QEN (figure 9, page 16). It shows a stable level of shuttle purchase of approx 200k units per month for the entire period except for October, when the trit price got above 3 isk per unit. The spike of people buying shuttles to recycle is very obvious and spiked consumption up to 1.6 million shuttles per month. Therefore, I think it is reasonable to assume that the 200k per month level is the base demand for caldari shuttles as shuttles, with minimal recycling demand being included. Originally by: Ki Anna I doubt that there is much fundamental demand for shuttles. Why not? Most times when people buy a ship, they are going to need to use a shuttle at some point to get their new ship to where they want to use it without having to abandon another ship at the purchase location. Econ Dev blog No 2 suggests that in August 2007 there were approx 22k ships produced per day, so approx 660k per month. Assuming there has been no growth since then (when there probably has been), and that caldari shuttles are 1/4 of the shuttle market (they are probably more due to the concentration of players in caldari space), this suggests that approx 165k shuttle purchases per month could be justified by people traveling to pick up their new ships. While it is back of an envelope stuff, 200k caldari shuttles per month does not seem an unreasonable figure for true demand. Originally by: Ki Anna Their primary selling point is one of convience. With that convience gone, how many people will opt for a rookie ship instead of a shuttle? The trick will be getting a rookie ship without leaving another of your ships abandoned in space (at which point you may as well have used the other ship instead). As far as I know they fixed the bug where you could dock your ship while remaining in space in a pod, and you don't have free and cheap shuttles to abandon in space anymore. Of course, it's possible that the convenience factor will push people to use low-end frigates instead of shuttles (e.g. condor), which may spread demand across more minerals. ------- There is no magic Wand of Fixing, and it is not powered by forum whines.
Ki Anna Ki Tech Industries	Posted - 2008.04.15 18:40:00 - [10] Originally by: Matthew The trick will be getting a rookie ship without leaving another of your ships abandoned in space (at which point you may as well have used the other ship instead). As far as I know they fixed the bug where you could dock your ship while remaining in space in a pod, and you don't have free and cheap shuttles to abandon in space anymore. How about right-click on your ship while docked and choose leave ship? Either fly to your new ship in your pod, or dock at any station where you don't already have another ship to get a rookie ship. I don't remember right off, but I think that you might even get one if you dock where you have a ship as long as it is not assembled. I expect that popular stations will be well stocked with shuttles priced right near the mineral price, just like any other T1 ship. Otherwise, people are more likely to use a rookie ship or pod if a shuttle is not available at a reasonable price. Unlike with 0.0, in high-sec, the speed bonus that a shuttle offers over a rookie ship or pod is not likely to allow for much of a price increase.
Pang Grohl Gallente Sudo Corp	Posted - 2008.04.15 18:40:00 - [11] I wonder if it's viable to predict the high limit of racial shuttle prices from the cost of the corresponding mining frigates? IIRC, the mining frigates are available from NPC dealers. *** Si non adjuvas, noces (If you're not helping, you're hurting)
Ki Anna Ki Tech Industries	Posted - 2008.04.15 18:43:00 - [12] Edited by: Ki Anna on 15/04/2008 18:43:41 Originally by: Pang Grohl I wonder if it's viable to predict the high limit of racial shuttle prices from the cost of the corresponding mining frigates? IIRC, the mining frigates are available from NPC dealers. How do you mean? The mining frigates might replace shuttles as a source for low end minerals. But NPC pricing will no longer have a direct effect on shuttles as NPC's no longer buy or sell shuttles.
Mr Horizontal Gallente KIA Corp KIA Alliance	Posted - 2008.04.15 18:47:00 - [13] Edited by: Mr Horizontal on 15/04/2008 18:48:26 Originally by: Ki Anna I suppose that a study of demand for shuttles in 0.0 would be helpful to project future demand for high sec shuttles. However, I don't have access to that information. Joke right? everyone farts around in a ceptor in 0.0 unless you're a goon. Always armed. Director \| www.eve-bank.net
Altaree Red Frog Investments Blue Sky Consortium	Posted - 2008.04.15 18:54:00 - [14] Originally by: Mr Horizontal Edited by: Mr Horizontal on 15/04/2008 18:48:26 Originally by: Ki Anna I suppose that a study of demand for shuttles in 0.0 would be helpful to project future demand for high sec shuttles. However, I don't have access to that information. Joke right? everyone farts around in a ceptor in 0.0 unless you're a goon. Always armed. Interceptors... Otherwise known as T2 Shuttles Blue Sky
Matthew Caldari BloodStar Technologies	Posted - 2008.04.15 19:17:00 - [15] Originally by: Ki Anna Originally by: Matthew The trick will be getting a rookie ship without leaving another of your ships abandoned in space (at which point you may as well have used the other ship instead). As far as I know they fixed the bug where you could dock your ship while remaining in space in a pod, and you don't have free and cheap shuttles to abandon in space anymore. How about right-click on your ship while docked and choose leave ship? Either fly to your new ship in your pod, or dock at any station where you don't already have another ship to get a rookie ship. Good point, I stand corrected. ------- There is no magic Wand of Fixing, and it is not powered by forum whines.
Havok Pierce Gallente D00M. Triumvirate.	Posted - 2008.04.15 19:23:00 - [16] I just find this slightly annoying--I liked being able to get ahold of a shuttle at an NPC station when I needed one. Now they'll all be in Jita. Originally by: CCP Wrangler There's a Community petition category??
Pang Grohl Gallente Sudo Corp	Posted - 2008.04.15 19:25:00 - [17] Originally by: Ki Anna Edited by: Ki Anna on 15/04/2008 18:43:41 Originally by: Pang Grohl I wonder if it's viable to predict the high limit of racial shuttle prices from the cost of the corresponding mining frigates? IIRC, the mining frigates are available from NPC dealers. How do you mean? The mining frigates might replace shuttles as a source for low end minerals. But NPC pricing will no longer have a direct effect on shuttles as NPC's no longer buy or sell shuttles. In theory given that a mining frigate has the same availability as a shuttle, no one would pay more than a certain percentage of the cost of a mining frigate to acquire a shuttle. The difference in mineral value alone should support this. The with shuttle prices uncapped, mining frigates can compete with shuttles for the cheap, readily available conveyance, market space. Shuttles can also rise to prices that remove the throw-away factor. With warp to zero the speed advantage of shuttles is less of a factor as well. Because of these factors mining frigates could replace shuttles both as a source of low-end minerals, and as a cost effective small cargo ship, when their price gets high enough. *** Si non adjuvas, noces (If you're not helping, you're hurting)
Zarstrax	Posted - 2008.04.15 19:28:00 - [18] Edited by: Zarstrax on 15/04/2008 19:42:37 Maybe 4.0 or 5.0 per unit I think. I bought 500mil worth of trit so hope It goes up a bit.
Ki Anna Ki Tech Industries	Posted - 2008.04.15 19:56:00 - [19] Originally by: Pang Grohl Because of these factors mining frigates could replace shuttles both as a source of low-end minerals, and as a cost effective small cargo ship, when their price gets high enough. Are any frigates still sold by NPC's? I am having a hard time confirming this using out-of-game tools and cannot currently log in to verify it myself.
Kwint Sommer Lothian Quay Industries	Posted - 2008.04.15 20:12:00 - [20] Oh God! My shuttles!!! I buy so many shuttles, it's perfectly normal for me to go through half a dozen in a week. Now what the hell am I supposed to do when I'm out in some remote corner of low sec and need something to zip around in? There are few ships as fast and agile and the odds of finding one of those at a remote low sec station are pretty slim.... I really wish they had just quadrupled the price but left them those NPC orders on the market. Then we'd still have the convenience they offered and it would have moved the price ceiling so high it would be a non-issue. There was definitely a better way to do this CCP. Purchasing and Shipping Moon Minerals
Matthew Caldari BloodStar Technologies	Posted - 2008.04.15 20:17:00 - [21] Originally by: Ki Anna Are any frigates still sold by NPC's? I am having a hard time confirming this using out-of-game tools and cannot currently log in to verify it myself. Well there's no NPC sells for any T1 frigate on the Lonetrek market, though there are plenty of low-end frigates around on player orders that are a considerably better deal than the ridiculous pricing currently going on in the shuttle market. ------- There is no magic Wand of Fixing, and it is not powered by forum whines.
BlondieBC Minmatar Ardent Industrial Hydra Alliance	Posted - 2008.04.15 20:30:00 - [22] trit should go to the next price capped npc item. I believe that the demand for trit is inelastic, so it will be very sensitive to this move. I think trit will behave much as crude oil does in the real world.
Pang Grohl Gallente Sudo Corp	Posted - 2008.04.15 20:44:00 - [23] Originally by: Matthew Originally by: Ki Anna Are any frigates still sold by NPC's? I am having a hard time confirming this using out-of-game tools and cannot currently log in to verify it myself. Well there's no NPC sells for any T1 frigate on the Lonetrek market, though there are plenty of low-end frigates around on player orders that are a considerably better deal than the ridiculous pricing currently going on in the shuttle market. Hmmm... even better then. On mineral value alone shuttles should float at approximately 30% of mining frigates. *** Si non adjuvas, noces (If you're not helping, you're hurting)
Robacz Essence Trade Essence Enterprises	Posted - 2008.04.15 20:59:00 - [24] The Trit market exploded.
SonOfAGhost Minmatar Corporate Research And Production Pty Ltd Zzz	Posted - 2008.04.15 21:05:00 - [25] The only reasons trit could rise is the same reasons it's as high as it was before the patch. Speculation, manipulation and FUD. Supply still significantly exceeds demand. The price of trit going up today is an demonstration of group psychology not market forces. Not that it doesn't mean an opportunity to make isk ----- Originally by: kedoremos EVE's economy is **** for CPAs, Annuities, and Stock Brokers.
wamingo Amarr Imperial Shipment	Posted - 2008.04.15 21:25:00 - [26] Don't you think this change will be reversed by popular demand? Afterall, NOT being able to get a shuttle from anywhere is a huge change to the game. People will often have to fly pods now. -- I won't not promise to avoid refraining from harming you! .... What?
Ikserak tai Caldari Ghengis Tia Corp	Posted - 2008.04.15 21:47:00 - [27] Trit is going for 6.15 Isk in Jita, and rising over 5 Isk in most empire regions. Think the asteroid belts will be full this weekend?? YOU'VE NEVER ROCKED 'TIL YOU'VE UNDOCKED.
Fitz VonHeise The New Order. SMASH Alliance	Posted - 2008.04.15 22:07:00 - [28] Originally by: Ikserak tai Trit is going for 6.15 Isk in Jita, and rising over 5 Isk in most empire regions. Think the asteroid belts will be full this weekend?? CCP wanted to force or incentivize people to go to 0.0 for the isk one can make mining crok and other ore. Now people will be making more isk then ever before mining trit. How does that make people want to go to 0.0 space?
BlondieBC Minmatar Ardent Industrial Hydra Alliance	Posted - 2008.04.15 22:19:00 - [29] Edited by: BlondieBC on 15/04/2008 22:19:31 quote]CCP wanted to force or incentivize people to go to 0.0 for the isk one can make mining crok and other ore. Now people will be making more isk then ever before mining trit. How does that make people want to go to 0.0 space? It will be interesting how the serious 0.0 miners react. Will they all move to high sec? Is there enough veldspar rocks in high sec to supply demand? I have not personally looked at high sec belts in a year? ** Is there another price cap that Trit will hit? I did some calculation on break even, (being a crokite miner). Think a price of 13.00 isk for a unit of trit is when i start mining trit. I do not plan to move soon. Interested in hearing others thoughts. I also bought 2 billion iskies of trit on speculation near 3.6. Expect to double my money in 30 days
Pang Grohl Gallente Sudo Corp	Posted - 2008.04.15 22:21:00 - [30] Originally by: wamingo Don't you think this change will be reversed by popular demand? Afterall, NOT being able to get a shuttle from anywhere is a huge change to the game. People will often have to fly pods now. I doubt it. There's always the vaunted rookie ships. This is also a grand opportunity for budding entrepreneurs to get into the production business. *** Si non adjuvas, noces (If you're not helping, you're hurting)

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