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Trit prices: where to next?

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Tommy TenKreds Animal Mercantile Executive	Posted - 2008.04.16 18:41:00 - [61] Edited by: Tommy TenKreds on 16/04/2008 18:51:34 Originally by: Robacz ... trit price before they removed shuttles was under shuttle cap. It was like 3.4-3.5. So when tritanium is traded at this price and shuttles are removed, it shouldn't have any significant effect (as they were not used as source for trit anyway). The reason that the price remained in the range it did was the price shadowing effect caused by the existence of the hard cap. That is to say that no-one would attempt to engineer the price upwards of 3.6 because it would have been pointless. With the cap removed, there is nothing to dictate trit prices except supply vs demand. It would be easy to assume that supply and demand kept the price around 3-3.4 before the removal of the cap and that it should therefore have remained in that range, but this is not the case. The hard cap kept the price at that level. When demand or market manipulation force the price up, it is quite possible that it will find a new stable range at a far higher level, since all parties may become content to pay/receive the higher price and, in the long term, we cannot predict how much cash committed miners will want to be paid for their efforts, now that they are not forced to accept a price below 3.6. In short, the upper price before the cap removal was meaningless, regardless of supply levels not necessitating the widespread use of shuttles.
Shadarle	Posted - 2008.04.16 19:06:00 - [62] Originally by: Tommy TenKreds Edited by: Tommy TenKreds on 16/04/2008 18:51:34 Originally by: Robacz ... trit price before they removed shuttles was under shuttle cap. It was like 3.4-3.5. So when tritanium is traded at this price and shuttles are removed, it shouldn't have any significant effect (as they were not used as source for trit anyway). The reason that the price remained in the range it did was the price shadowing effect caused by the existence of the hard cap. That is to say that no-one would attempt to engineer the price upwards of 3.6 because it would have been pointless. With the cap removed, there is nothing to dictate trit prices except supply vs demand. It would be easy to assume that supply and demand kept the price around 3-3.4 before the removal of the cap and that it should therefore have remained in that range, but this is not the case. The hard cap kept the price at that level. When demand or market manipulation force the price up, it is quite possible that it will find a new stable range at a far higher level, since all parties may become content to pay/receive the higher price and, in the long term, we cannot predict how much cash committed miners will want to be paid for their efforts, now that they are not forced to accept a price below 3.6. In short, the upper price before the cap removal was meaningless, regardless of supply levels not necessitating the widespread use of shuttles. Sorry, that just doesn't hold water. The entire idea behind supply/demand curves is that prices gravitate to the point at which the level of supply equals the level of demand. If shuttles were not being used heavily to refine into trit recently (which they weren't) then they were not affecting the price. If the supply remains the same but the price rises the demand will drop (as some items will no longer be profitable to produce). A drop in demand and perhaps an increase in supply (due to increased price making mining more profitable) would mean a drop in prices. There is no way trit could handle an increased price unless demand increased or supply dropped or a combo of both. The only way you could argue otherwise is if shuttles were supplying a large amount of trit, which it doesn't seem they were.
Aceoil D00M. Triumvirate.	Posted - 2008.04.16 19:19:00 - [63] Tritanium is the hot topic of the week. With the price cap removed, so is the hesitation in the market. In the next few weeks we should see people jumping into the trit market to try and manipulate prices . Squash supply. Try and raise the price as high as it can go. This tritanium could triple or quadruple in price until macro miners and other miners can switch gears and try to fill the inflated prices.
Tommy TenKreds Animal Mercantile Executive	Posted - 2008.04.16 19:31:00 - [64] Originally by: Shadarle Sorry, that just doesn't hold water. The entire idea behind supply/demand curves is that prices gravitate to the point at which the level of supply equals the level of demand. Well we're gonna disagree on this point, but that's nothing new. You are correct and you state basic economic principles which are hard to disagree with. But your statement only holds true when the price is unrestricted. People may choose to charge more for their goods simply because they now have that freedom and this may lead to a supply/demand equilibrium being established at a higher level. It's about a change in perceived value. Bandures > Tommy, you like a cowboy harry )
cosmoray	Posted - 2008.04.16 19:34:00 - [65] Nuts! 1. Yes, the shuttles were a top end cap 2. No, the trit cap wasn't being breached recently so, I can ssume: All production before the patch was occuring without the need for shuttle reprocessing, so I can equally assume that post patch production the trit amount used would stay the same. There is enough trit in the marketplace that is required, without injections from NPC purchasing. Therefore some speculation is occuring, which means that miners will just switch back to trit and fill those lovely buy orders!
Venkul Mul Gallente	Posted - 2008.04.16 21:10:00 - [66] Edited by: Venkul Mul on 16/04/2008 21:14:51 Originally by: Tommy TenKreds Edited by: Tommy TenKreds on 16/04/2008 18:51:34 Originally by: Robacz ... trit price before they removed shuttles was under shuttle cap. It was like 3.4-3.5. So when tritanium is traded at this price and shuttles are removed, it shouldn't have any significant effect (as they were not used as source for trit anyway). The reason that the price remained in the range it did was the price shadowing effect caused by the existence of the hard cap. That is to say that no-one would attempt to engineer the price upwards of 3.6 because it would have been pointless. With the cap removed, there is nothing to dictate trit prices except supply vs demand. It would be easy to assume that supply and demand kept the price around 3-3.4 before the removal of the cap and that it should therefore have remained in that range, but this is not the case. The hard cap kept the price at that level. When demand or market manipulation force the price up, it is quite possible that it will find a new stable range at a far higher level, since all parties may become content to pay/receive the higher price and, in the long term, we cannot predict how much cash committed miners will want to be paid for their efforts, now that they are not forced to accept a price below 3.6. In short, the upper price before the cap removal was meaningless, regardless of supply levels not necessitating the widespread use of shuttles. It is possible you are right, but then it mean that people was not willing to pay for transportation of the tritanum in proportion to what the haulers did feel was a right reward, so if the builder was lacking some tritanium to build his stuff he did felt it was more efficient to reprocess shuttles that import tritanium from several systems and pay a premium for the delivery. If a player is willing to put a buy order whit some range and limited minimum quantity he can easily gather tritanium under the standard market price. What has a big influence is the cost of transportation. If I have to move 4 millions unit of tritanium for several jumps with a iteron V I want at least 1 million for my trip. That could mean an increase of 25 to 40% for the tritanium cost (i.e. going from 3 isk to 4 for example). So transport costs and time have an heavy influence on tritanium cost. The availability of shuttles was influencing the price as, when the cost of transportation was high, it was convenient to recycle the shuttle in loco.
Selene D'Celeste Caldari The D'Celeste Trading Company	Posted - 2008.04.16 22:10:00 - [67] Originally by: Aceoil Tritanium is the hot topic of the week. With the price cap removed, so is the hesitation in the market. In the next few weeks we should see people jumping into the trit market to try and manipulate prices . Squash supply. Try and raise the price as high as it can go. This tritanium could triple or quadruple in price until macro miners and other miners can switch gears and try to fill the inflated prices. Right idea, except this entire cycle happened in under a day and is well on its way to winding down already. Got to be quick around here =D
SonOfAGhost Minmatar Corporate Research And Production Pty Ltd Zzz	Posted - 2008.04.16 22:43:00 - [68] Originally by: Alex Redwidth I can't believe the number of people who claim this won't affect trit prices much Then you should go back and read WHY we're saying that again. Since we weren't at the price cap, and hadn't been in months, the price of shuttles has no bearing on the price of trit. Now that the NPC orders have been removed you'll soon find that the opposite will become the norm. Originally by: Brisco Smiley holding back all their produced units for a week...This will happen within 48 hours. How much to buy your Caramilk secret? As a side note, someone asked me in a channel last night if people rushing to build shuttles to cash in on the lack of NPC orders wouldn't drive trit prices up. Ignoring unlimited free noob ships for the moment, I pointed out that the trit I use to build 1 Fenrir could build over 37,000 shuttles, so no, shuttle production would have no impact on the greater market
Lady Arthe Global Tech Solutions	Posted - 2008.04.17 02:14:00 - [69] Refine Undock Dock Refine Undock Dock Refine Repeat with multiple clients. OMGAD ISK SHUTTLE FARMING !
Alex Redwidth	Posted - 2008.04.17 03:00:00 - [70] Originally by: SonOfAGhost Then you should go back and read WHY we're saying that again. Since we weren't at the price cap, and hadn't been in months, the price of shuttles has no bearing on the price of trit. Now that the NPC orders have been removed you'll soon find that the opposite will become the norm. Well that's fine, but I'm very much a subscriber to Tommy TenKreds' view regarding how the cap affected trading. Given trit's steady rise and sudden tapering off around 3.4-3.45, to me that looks directly like what he's describing (especially as units traded didn't increase) in that the 'threat' of the 3.6 cap was influencing pricing and that removing that will see trit regain the steady price increase. 4.0 might be a little optimistic, but I think 3.7-3.8 is realistic once the panic buying wears off.
Daeva Vios New Eden Credit Bureau	Posted - 2008.04.17 04:01:00 - [71] Originally by: Alex Redwidth Originally by: SonOfAGhost Then you should go back and read WHY we're saying that again. Since we weren't at the price cap, and hadn't been in months, the price of shuttles has no bearing on the price of trit. Now that the NPC orders have been removed you'll soon find that the opposite will become the norm. Well that's fine, but I'm very much a subscriber to Tommy TenKreds' view regarding how the cap affected trading. Given trit's steady rise and sudden tapering off around 3.4-3.45, to me that looks directly like what he's describing (especially as units traded didn't increase) in that the 'threat' of the 3.6 cap was influencing pricing and that removing that will see trit regain the steady price increase. 4.0 might be a little optimistic, but I think 3.7-3.8 is realistic once the panic buying wears off. There was no 'threat' of hitting the ceiling that was preventing tritanium from hitting that ceiling. If demand dictated that prices rise to the ceiling and stay there, they would never have dropped below the ceiling, barring poor mathematical skills. The fact is, demand was not that great and is not that great now. This also is not 'panic buying'. Trit's rise was driven more by cold speculation than easily excitable manufacturers. ------------------------------------- NECB
Selene D'Celeste Caldari The D'Celeste Trading Company	Posted - 2008.04.17 04:03:00 - [72] Originally by: Lady Arthe Refine Undock Dock Refine Undock Dock Refine Repeat with multiple clients. OMGAD ISK SHUTTLE FARMING ! Except you get nub ships, not shuttles, and you can't refine them to anything. Good story.
Danari Viper Squad Triumvirate.	Posted - 2008.04.17 04:31:00 - [73] Gawd I wish Professor Bunsen's site had caught on...
Shadarle	Posted - 2008.04.17 05:00:00 - [74] Originally by: Alex Redwidth Originally by: SonOfAGhost Then you should go back and read WHY we're saying that again. Since we weren't at the price cap, and hadn't been in months, the price of shuttles has no bearing on the price of trit. Now that the NPC orders have been removed you'll soon find that the opposite will become the norm. Well that's fine, but I'm very much a subscriber to Tommy TenKreds' view regarding how the cap affected trading. Given trit's steady rise and sudden tapering off around 3.4-3.45, to me that looks directly like what he's describing (especially as units traded didn't increase) in that the 'threat' of the 3.6 cap was influencing pricing and that removing that will see trit regain the steady price increase. 4.0 might be a little optimistic, but I think 3.7-3.8 is realistic once the panic buying wears off. Except the cap wasn't really 3.6 like you claim. If anyone actually started buying shuttles in quantity the price would have gone up. So the threat was really not at 3.6 but over 4. Kinda throws your theory out the window if you ask me. I want to know which buyers were not buying or were buying more because they were afraid of the shuttle cap on trit. Do you think even 1% of the player base even knows it exists? I don't.
Ava Santiago Minmatar	Posted - 2008.04.17 05:19:00 - [75] the current demand for trit has everything to do with everyone and their brother suddenly buying trit to make shuttles. Give it a week.. trit will drop. What is fascinating is how fast industrialists switch gears to supply new markets.
abraheam Dirty Denizens	Posted - 2008.04.17 05:42:00 - [76] Edited by: abraheam on 17/04/2008 05:43:43 I personaly believe that the 3.6 shuttle price was somewhat of a deterent. The traders that I do know dont bother with anything under a 10% margin, especial when they are taking a chance on manipulation. It is true that the ceiling was more like 4, but who are you going to bag at that price when any hardcore buyer is just going to buy shuttles. The profit margin due to the volume you needed to sell(and move, just as important when dealing with trit IMO) made trit untouchable before. The main reason is because you had an unlimited source of trit in every station system in empire. The price, and MOVEMENT was not a problem. Now both of those factors are out the window. IMO movement of trit now, because time is money for large producers, and traders will cause a rise in trit price by itself. ninja edit- however, I do not think the sky is falling.
Carniflex Caldari Fallout Research Fallout Project	Posted - 2008.04.17 08:29:00 - [77] Originally by: Letrange "Please allow me to introduce myself, I'm a man of wealth and taste" Hehe. Thats a pretty good song from Tiamat actually. Pretty proper one even for this thread. On subject itself I do not see tritanium in long term going at a lot higher prices as we still have insurance system in place and that in turn sets certain limits on mineral baskets (altho in the wrong end of it setting lower cap for for mineral basket). What I'm getting at is, that if tritanium goes up a lot it would mean that higher end ones come even lower and more and more miners move into veld mining increasing supply. Unless some cough Raven cough ships move away from insurance induced lower price cap allowing for whole mineral basket to increase in value. I find it somewhat unlikley tho bcos 'i mine it and it's free crowd' who (if tritanium gets more expencive by a wide margin) see it as lower construction cost for their Ravens (as they usually buy only high ends and semiafk mine the low ends).
SonOfAGhost Minmatar Corporate Research And Production Pty Ltd Zzz	Posted - 2008.04.17 10:30:00 - [78] Originally by: Carniflex Originally by: Letrange "Please allow me to introduce myself, I'm a man of wealth and taste" Hehe. Thats a pretty good song from ~~Tiamat~~ The Rolling Stones actually. Fixed!
Tommy TenKreds Animal Mercantile Executive	Posted - 2008.04.17 10:34:00 - [79] Edited by: Tommy TenKreds on 17/04/2008 10:35:56 Originally by: SonOfAGhost Originally by: Carniflex Originally by: Letrange "Please allow me to introduce myself, I'm a man of wealth and taste" Hehe. Thats the first line from a pretty good song from ~~Tiamat~~ The Rolling Stones actually. Fixed! Fixed more! Funny how an elephant's behind will always look like an elephant's behind and nothing more to some.
Hoshi Blackguard Brigade	Posted - 2008.04.17 11:01:00 - [80] Originally by: Selene D'Celeste Originally by: Lady Arthe Refine Undock Dock Refine Undock Dock Refine Repeat with multiple clients. OMGAD ISK SHUTTLE FARMING ! Except you get nub ships, not shuttles, and you can't refine them to anything. Good story. You still get 1 trit each time :)
Midas Man Caldari Dzark Asylum	Posted - 2008.04.17 11:02:00 - [81] think one point people are missing is the point of convieniance. That is to say lots of systems are around that have limited on no supply of trit on the market due to every man and his dog moving goods to the trade hubs. If I am 8 jumps from the closest supply of trit at a reasonable price then it would make more sence to me to buy shuttles and reprosses and not have to make a 16 jump round trip to save .2isk per trit. Time is an important factor in the market value of any product how many of you out there sell products away from trade hubs at upto a 50% mark up. I do all the time. So the huge spike in the shuttle sales was due to the universal price of trit going higher than 3.6 I would bet that of the 200K caldari shuttles sold each day 50% upwards were bought to reprocess for quick access to mats. but i suppose even if all 200k were being used for trit it is still only a small amount of daily traded amounts so it wouldn't affect prices too drasticly. what will affect the price is manipulation and panick buying. I bet lots of maufactures have bought up vast quanties of trit now for fear of a rising price in future.
Avon Caldari Black Nova Corp Band of Brothers	Posted - 2008.04.17 11:52:00 - [82] I think the point that a lot of people miss with the 3.6isk price cap is that prices approaching the cap are still constrained by it. People want to sell their Trit. If demand drives prices towards 3.6 then you have to sell under that level, otherwise people use shuttles. The market price would not reach or exceed the cap, otherwise mined Trit would never sell. When you factor in convenience and movement costs, the price must remain well under the cap, otherwise people will choose shuttles over the time cost of hauling. I think it is fair to say that the trit market probably was already capped by shuttles, and that upward price movement is likely. This may be somewhat negated by short term relocation of cheap Trit, but I think long term miners will price their trit somewhat above the prior level. After all, even at 4isk the profit per hour is not amazing, and the people who buy trit are unlikely to start mining themselves to undercut that price - the can invest their time far more profitably. I think, if anything, prices will rise again once cheap trit has been relocated - until miners find a comfortable selling price. The potential price rise on produced goods if you inflate trit by 20% would easily be absorbed by the buyers, the ISK is certainly out their to afford it. It will also be interesting to see how the prices of other minerals will be effected if miners switch to trit in favour of previously more profitable rocks. As for market manipulation, I think that will continue for some time. The Trit market is actually quite easy to corner for a region, and resellers still have a large margin before they get near another cap. If they are hoarding trit, keeping it out of the hands of manufacturers, ultimately they can control supply to raise demand, and thus prices. Some people with already very fat wallets are probably dancing around with glee.
Carniflex Caldari Fallout Research Fallout Project	Posted - 2008.04.17 12:15:00 - [83] Originally by: SonOfAGhost Originally by: Carniflex Originally by: Letrange "Please allow me to introduce myself, I'm a man of wealth and taste" Hehe. Thats a pretty good song from ~~Tiamat~~ The Rolling Stones actually. Fixed! Tiamat, 'Skeleton Skeletron' album, song 'Symphaty For The Devil' first lines. Not aware of the rolling stones versions as I'm not that old to be familiar with their albums. The Tiamat version of the song seemed pretty suitable for the thread in that sense that it kinda hints 'I have seen a lot and know more, so hey, trust me. Buy tritanium, buy it a lot and fast and do it above 4.0 isk/unit'. Ofc most regular readers of Market discussions section have their own saltbox with them when reading as anything going in here has usually some agenda buried in it somewhere.
Jaeger Orlofsson VentureCorp Imperial Republic Of the North	Posted - 2008.04.17 12:28:00 - [84] Originally by: Carniflex Tiamat, 'Skeleton Skeletron' album, song 'Symphaty For The Devil' first lines. Not aware of the rolling stones versions as I'm not that old to be familiar with their albums.... Sympathy for the Devil
Cardo Fescio Trident Future Technologies	Posted - 2008.04.17 12:46:00 - [85] Originally by: Avon As for market manipulation, I think that will continue for some time. The Trit market is actually quite easy to corner for a region, and resellers still have a large margin before they get near another cap. If they are hoarding trit, keeping it out of the hands of manufacturers, ultimately they can control supply to raise demand, and thus prices. Some people with already very fat wallets are probably dancing around with glee. They might try it, but don't forget many (ex-)miners are sitting on large quantities of tritanium (as in serveral freighterloads of trit) located in places where selling was/is pointless due to low prices. I'd say the first market manipulation attempts would only suck up that "idle" tritanium (which now even won't show on the market).
BlondieBC Minmatar Ardent Industrial Hydra Alliance	Posted - 2008.04.17 14:38:00 - [86] The forge region has a trit price of 3.64 yesterday, so the shuttles were a cap. The next few days are important to see if the price settles back to around 3.5 or goes up on a daily basis. I think the latter, but either way is possible.

CCP Lingorm C C P	Posted - 2008.04.17 16:03:00 - [87] Originally by: Carniflex Originally by: SonOfAGhost Originally by: Carniflex Originally by: Letrange "Please allow me to introduce myself, I'm a man of wealth and taste" Hehe. Thats a pretty good song from ~~Tiamat~~ The Rolling Stones actually. Fixed! Tiamat, 'Skeleton Skeletron' album, song 'Symphaty For The Devil' first lines. Not aware of the rolling stones versions as I'm not that old to be familiar with their albums. The Tiamat version of the song seemed pretty suitable for the thread in that sense that it kinda hints 'I have seen a lot and know more, so hey, trust me. Personally I have always preferred the Natalie Merchant Cover. Not as heavy as Gunz n Roses but not as 'dirge like' as teh Rolling Stones Original. CCP Lingorm CCP Quality Assurance QA Engineering Team Leader Originally by: Lord Fitz Eve is to WoW as Wow is to an 8 player game of Unreal Tournament.

Dr Brains Boli Me Kurc	Posted - 2008.04.17 16:21:00 - [88] I just see more people moving to high sec to mine trit. After the initial price explosions, the miners will catch up and we'll see the usual prices going up and down a bit at a normal level. But this is another step backwards in the effort to make lowsec more appealing.
Cynosural Theorist	Posted - 2008.04.17 16:32:00 - [89] I predict large volumes of destroyed Ibis'
Harisdrop Gallente EnTech Brutally Clever Empire	Posted - 2008.04.17 17:26:00 - [90] This is last remnant of the old EVE style market. Thank goodness. I look forward to factional warfare. Hopefully camping in a NPC corp and playing the same EVE I play will come to a flaming end.

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