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Lord Vigo
   |
Posted - 2009.01.09 06:23:00 -
[1]
Currently in the market there seems to be a lot of confusion -- which is highly justified -- about the price of tritanium compared to other minerals. This has made conventional ideas of trading senseless, and is a major issue in the EVE economy.
I want to start this thread as a place for people to discuss why the tritanium status is what it is now, as well as why other minerals seem to be devalued. At this point, the only logical course of action for a miner is to mine Veldspar in empire. While I suppose one could make the argument that miners just aren't mining this ore, it makes no sense as it is by far the safest ore to mine. Meanwhile, going one jump out of empire routinely reveals Veldspar asteroids the size of stations, and more specialty asteroids (e.g., hegdberdite) which are completely untapped.
What is going on here?
Disclosure: Yeah, maybe if there is some revelation here I might make a couple million ISK, but not enough for me to care. I want to know what is going on in the economy as do others. |
Brock Nelson
Caldari
Flux Technologies Inc
|
Posted - 2009.01.09 06:42:00 -
[2]
Edited by: Brock Nelson on 09/01/2009 06:42:36
I don't know what's going on, nor do I know why there's another thread discussion about trit price but I do know that you'll find your answer in the other trit thread |
Ambo
State Protectorate
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Posted - 2009.01.09 06:49:00 -
[3]
It's what makes the Eve market so great. Supply and Demand. |
Dennmoth Ferdier
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Posted - 2009.01.09 07:13:00 -
[4]
People don't mine enough veldspar.
People want tritanium more than the miners can supply.
supply and demand at it's finest.
Also, why people don't mine enough veldspar, is due to the same reason people think the ore they mine is free. I call it ignorance.
They think rarer and harder to get to is better. Eve is more complex than that.
That, or the macros have moved to 0.0. |
Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
|
Posted - 2009.01.09 07:14:00 -
[5]
Hello and welcome to "things Akita T explained 2+ years ago but not many botherered to listen properly, especially not the new economist".
Long story short:
Prices can only go down to 70% of "base price" due to the age-old "insurance scam" trick.
Mining yield kept (and keeps) increasing while mineral distribution in ores (and ore distribution in the cluster) remained unchanged.
There's a pretty strong downwards pressure on the basket price of minerals, the only exceptions being short periods of intense consumption (big alliance rebuilding a capital fleet, new patch brings new ship types in, etc)
Therefore, there's almost always an excess of MOST minerals available on the market at ever decreasing prices (as a whole) except whatever the heck the bottleneck material is at the time being, which keeps on rising up to the level where reprocessing NPC stuff can supply endless units at that price.
Highends and to a lesser degree midends are being shat into existance in massive amounts in the drone regions by belt-ratting.
People want to make as much ISK as possible, so they mine/rat/whatever as much as possible on whatever is most profitable at the moment.
The bottleneck is therefore lowends, particularly tritanium.
Several measures were put in place to lift any NPC-driven pricecaps on Tritanium. One can only assume that CCP intends to eventually remove any and all NPC refineables from the market, so no more caps would exist.
Tritanium unavoidably spiked, then just as unavoidably fluctuated, then resumed climbing again.
Tritanium will ONLY stop climbing for good (in case all caps are removed) when mining Veldspar will be pretty damned close (not equal, but close, as in "at least half") in ISK/hour with mining Arkonor/Bistot/Crokite.
That is, unless somebody at CCP wakes the frak up and smells the rotten coffee beans already.
___
Happy ? "Discuss"...
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Steve Celeste
Caldari
Moonbow.
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Posted - 2009.01.09 09:20:00 -
[6]
Blaming Dr. Eggnogg is the best course of action here.
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.01.09 10:23:00 -
[7]
 Originally by: Steve Celeste
Blaming Dr. Eggnogg is the best course of action here.
Now, don't get me wrong... the idea to "free" the market of artificial constraints (NPC sell order refinables imposed caps on mineral prices) is a GOOD idea.
Too bad it completely fails to take into account the fact that just like NPC refineables set a price cap, the distribution of minerals in ore, and the distribution of ore across the galaxy, combined with the typical manufacture needs lead to YET ANOTHER nasty limitation, which is actually worse than the price cap for the reasons explained in the other post above.
However, "the good doctor"... well... he's *either* still too tainted by real-world economics and too far out of touch with game mechanics to give a full solution to the problem, even if it's being shoved in his face repeatedly... *or* there's a hidden reason why he refuses the idea of implementing a proper solution in case he does "get" it (no idea, some kind of experiment with all EVE players as guinea pigs, how should I know).
I don't know wether he considers the MD regular's advice below his level, or wether he acknowledges the advice but simply disagrees, he doesn't spend much time talking to the people over here... and it's not like we haven't repeatedly invited him to participate in discussions in the past, but after half a year you kind of start to stop trying, and after almost a year you kind of stop caring altogether.
So, don't mind if I do blame him for the current situation - he was the man fronted as the initiator of the described changes, changes that had the effects you see nowadays, effects which several MD regulars not only could have had predicted, but actually DID predict.
_
Create a character || Fit a ship || Get some ISK |
Kazzac Elentria
|
Posted - 2009.01.09 12:05:00 -
[8]
Originally by: Akita T
effects which several MD regulars not only could have had predicted, but actually DID predict.
And made billions of isk off of.
....that's it, that's the reason the good doctor got hired, to help us make more isk.  |
Xabier
Amarr
THE SORORITY
|
Posted - 2009.01.09 13:07:00 -
[9]
Originally by: Lord Vigo
What is going on here?
Less competition for me and higher profits as high ends continue to decrease in value.
Dynasty Investments Manager
Xabiers Capital Bond #1/2 (FINISHED)
Xabiers Capital Bond #3/4 |
vanBuskirk
Caldari
|
Posted - 2009.01.09 16:35:00 -
[10]
This is a very old subject, and the answer is always the same. Miners don't usually want to take risks, with their expensive equipment with the defenses of the average paper bag. So the moon-sized roids in low-sec and 0.0 are irrelevant - they are never going to make a difference.
Some ideas to get people mining veld and scord in 0.0, and therefore slowing the trit price inflation:
Make it possible to actually protect the mining ships; examples include anchorable shield bubbles and a way of locking down gates - if you have sovereignty of course, at least at some level. This might allow a particular system, deep in sovereign territory, to be relatively safe - at least until someone removes sovereignty in the systems surrounding the system you're mining in.
Yes, it is possible to lock down a system with a military force - but this means you have maybe 20-30 ships in the mining group, with hundreds of gate-camping ships (and a rat defence force near the miners) in system. Not very economical of manpower. A real star nation might do this sort of thing, if there was such a thing - but EVE is a game. It stays easier and more cost-effective to mine veld in Empire and ship minerals to 0.0, compressed in some way - or just make stuff in high-sec.
Low-sec is even worse in this respect, because most people won't just randomly shoot everything coming through. You don't get blown up, but you do still lose sec status.
Another way of helping might be to create a specialised module (or a skill in the industrial/refining tree) that makes a refining POS less like the useless, inefficient POS (different meaning for the TLA  ) that it currently is. The skill is already in the database (sort of): Mobile Refinery Operation. This makes high-sec systems without stations viable for mining ops. Incidentally, conceivably it might actually make that supercomputer that runs every industrial ship in EVE actually useful! The graphic effects for deploying a mobile refinery might be quite cool, too.
Another way of accomplishing the same thing might be to give the Orca a special module - working in the same way as cloaking devices, impossibly high CPU use except when fitted to an Orca - that gives the ship a single compressing factory slot a la Rorqual. Of course, this would mean that even more Orcas would be wanted than there is demand for now.
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Venomae
Federal Defence Union
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Posted - 2009.01.09 17:11:00 -
[11]
Originally by: Lord Vigo
Currently in the market there seems to be a lot of confusion -- which is highly justified -- about the price of tritanium compared to other minerals. This has made conventional ideas of trading senseless, and is a major issue in the EVE economy.
I want to start this thread as a place for people to discuss why the tritanium status is what it is now, as well as why other minerals seem to be devalued. At this point, the only logical course of action for a miner is to mine Veldspar in empire. While I suppose one could make the argument that miners just aren't mining this ore, it makes no sense as it is by far the safest ore to mine. Meanwhile, going one jump out of empire routinely reveals Veldspar asteroids the size of stations, and more specialty asteroids (e.g., hegdberdite) which are completely untapped.
What is going on here?
Disclosure: Yeah, maybe if there is some revelation here I might make a couple million ISK, but not enough for me to care. I want to know what is going on in the economy as do others.
Supply and demand my friend.
Since latest improvements in lagless eve has made clear that lots of bigger fights are being done. Also everyone wants to have Orca. Remember how many Orca BPO's was sold at the first week after QR? Over 1000 of them.
Tritanium is needed the most and that's why the price goes up.
Also, there is lot's of miners wasting their time right now with Omber, Plagioclase and other not so needed ores.
Tritanium price will start coming down after the supply is starting to meet demand and there is starting to be oversupply.
Also up coming expansion is also affecting the market. Nobody knows what you need to build T3 ships. Everyone wants to be as ready as possible to get the highest profits during first weeks after T3.
We live interesting times in New Eden right now and by the summer, tritanium price will drop. |
Venomae
Federal Defence Union
|
Posted - 2009.01.09 17:14:00 -
[12]
Originally by: Akita T
...
You seem to forget that it doesn't matter what is needed to make supply and demand work in free market. It doesn't matter what is it what is needed.
If cap recharger demand suddenly goes up by some odd FOTM, price will rise since supply doesn't meet the demand.
That's what free market is all about. |
Kazzac Elentria
|
Posted - 2009.01.09 17:19:00 -
[13]
Originally by: Venomae
Originally by: Akita T
...
You seem to forget that it doesn't matter what is needed to make supply and demand work in free market. It doesn't matter what is it what is needed.
If cap recharger demand suddenly goes up by some odd FOTM, price will rise since supply doesn't meet the demand.
That's what free market is all about.
And you fail at understanding that every single mineral is intrinsically linked in price because of the way insurance, ore, and loot yields work. We work under the auspice of a free market that really has very large and subtle strings attached to it. |
nether void
Caldari
Shrapnel Industries
|
Posted - 2009.01.09 17:33:00 -
[14]
Trit is high because a lot of capitals are going pop lately. Big wars in the south and now about to be one in Fountain...although not sure how many caps will be involved, but probably a noticable amount.
BoB/EXE/AAA/-A- vs Goon/TCF/Etc in the south - Massive capital losses over the last 2 or 3 weeks. |
Richard Kitan
United Space Republic Research
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Posted - 2009.01.09 17:50:00 -
[15]
Trit is still cheap(ish) if you know where to look. I just saw a sell order for something like 400m units of trit at around 3 isk per unit in lowsec Khanid. Actually, I've got about 30m in lowsec Khanid I'd sell for 2.75 because I'm too lazy to ship it out. heh.
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.01.09 19:23:00 -
[16]
Originally by: Venomae
You seem to forget that ...
You seem to be unable to read, or you are able to read but unable to comprehend.
You're not saying anything I haven't already said, but out of 10+ steps presented you get hung up on step #2 and just stall there.
I suggest you re-read that post of mine you quoted until the realisation sinks in as to why exactly I'm 100% right about everything I say in there.
_
Create a character || Fit a ship || Get some ISK |
Richard Kitan
United Space Republic Research
|
Posted - 2009.01.09 22:01:00 -
[17]
Originally by: Akita T
No, that's not cheap at all. If anything, it's a damned bad deal.
You'd have to serve me Tritanium at nearly 3 ISK per unit to make me even consider bothering picking it up from another highsec system nearby (for at most 15 ISK/m^3 actual max profit on the haul, I certainly hope it's barely a couple of jumps away from where I need it).
And you have to be in a pretty bad mental shape to buy trit in lowsec far away from a hub AT ALL unless you are planning to use it right there, on the spot (either to build stuff for sale, or to attempt to cheaply compress it before hauling).
You're better off doing anything else and just buying trit locally at the "inflated" local price instead.
Or hell, buy low-meta junk and melt it, silly people sell it even below mineral buy order prices at perfect refine.
Anything except buying junkloads of dirt-cheap trit dozens of jumps away from where you actually need it.
I suppose it depends on what you're planning to do with it. Back when I lived in Lowsec Khanid, my CEO had a jump freighter and made quite a few billion buying the cheap trit that the macro haulers were dumping on the market for 2 isk per unit (no clue why they were doing it - but a good deal is a good deal) and taking it up to jita to sell for 3 isk. Prices are higher now, but when I was in Jita a few hours ago, I saw it going for >4 per unit. There were 400m units on the market for 3 per unit when I looked in Khanid earlier today. If you have a jump freighter (and preferably standings with the locals so you don't lose said jump freighter), that's a potential 400m isk profit just for moving some junk from Baratar to Jita. I don't have a jump freighter, or even a regular freighter, so the 30m in my hangar is staying there until I move back.
--
Richard Kitan
Builder of Stuff |
Clair Bear
Perkone
|
Posted - 2009.01.09 23:00:00 -
[18]
The cheap trit was a result of L4 "Insane Industrialist" mission. Anyone running "courier" missions for Gallente is well aquantied with that bad boy since most other Gallente courier missions are 5 m^3 and well suited to being run in a covops or inty.
You got to deliver 2.5M units of trit to your starting station. The most expedient way to complete this mission was to stocking up on trit via freighter (or melting L4 rat loot) and then simply placing the trit you got far away on the market.
That mission is gone now.
BTW, looks like the upward trend of trit pricing has stalled. |
nether void
Caldari
Shrapnel Industries
|
Posted - 2009.01.09 23:25:00 -
[19]
More Trit sink action hehe: 01/09/09 fleet battle - CAOD thread
--------------------
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Chribba
Otherworld Enterprises
Otherworld Empire
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Posted - 2009.01.10 00:18:00 -
[20]
There is nothing going on with the Tritanium... really... --really--. |
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Kazzac Elentria
|
Posted - 2009.01.10 02:19:00 -
[21]
Originally by: Clair Bear
The cheap trit was a result of L4 "Insane Industrialist" mission. Anyone running "courier" missions for Gallente is well aquantied with that bad boy since most other Gallente courier missions are 5 m^3 and well suited to being run in a covops or inty.
You got to deliver 2.5M units of trit to your starting station. The most expedient way to complete this mission was to stocking up on trit via freighter (or melting L4 rat loot) and then simply placing the trit you got far away on the market.
That mission is gone now.
BTW, looks like the upward trend of trit pricing has stalled.
I think we're seeing the current demand lull and spike right now between 3.9 to 4.2 a unit and we should see rise and falls between those two as factory slots are fired up for this and that.
Taking into account only 10% of toons ever have a full production run going at any given time, and it takes at a minimum of a single account to have a small 24/7 capital chain going, you can honestly picture the scene as prints come out of lock down once or twice a month and get thrown into the cooker for replacement mods and or ships. |
Owin Forsyth
|
Posted - 2009.01.12 15:08:00 -
[22]
Originally by: Venomae
Also, there is lot's of miners wasting their time right now with Omber, Plagioclase and other not so needed ores.
I don't think it is because miners don't know what to mine. I have moved to 5 different systems in 3 different regions in the last 2 weeks because Veldspar asteroids were either non-existent or so small you could mine all of the Veldspar in a belt with two hulk trips at 17,199 m3 cargo. Of course the systems I go to are in 0.5 and 0.6 space and other systems may be different.
If a miner gets the opportunity to mine an entire belt by himself, he will notice that Veldspar volume is much lower than all of the other ore's. Is it suppose to be this way? Maybe corps who use the Orca in mining ops can say if they noticed this also. They usually mine an entire belt, then move to the next.
I think there needs to be more Veldspar in the belts and less Pyroxeres and Scordite in Caldari space.
|
Tasko Pal
Heron Corporation
|
Posted - 2009.01.12 16:34:00 -
[23]
Owin, this is an intended game mechanic. Belts do not pop full strength asteroids, but build up over several days. Selectively cleaning out veldspar means those roids will be smaller than their counterparts. |
Kazzac Elentria
|
Posted - 2009.01.12 16:37:00 -
[24]
Originally by: Tasko Pal
Owin, this is an intended game mechanic. Belts do not pop full strength asteroids, but build up over several days. Selectively cleaning out veldspar means those roids will be smaller than their counterparts.
What Tasko said, its honestly better to clean the entire belt and move on than just to focus on a single roid. Even better if you move between constellations cleaning the belts |
Xabier
Amarr
THE SORORITY
|
Posted - 2009.01.12 16:55:00 -
[25]
As Joseph hasn't posted the weekly report yet thought I'ld post this snapshot.
Mineral Market Analysis: The Forge
Tritanium:
Date, Price (Quantity)
04th, 4.11 (17.5bn units)
05th, 4.11 (13.9bn units)
06th, 4.10 (16.0bn units)
07th, 4.09 (13.1bn units)
08th, 4.09 (12.7bn units)
09th, 4.10 (21.4bn units)
10th, 4.08 (13.4bn units)
Trend: 4.20->4.08 (Price Downwards)
Total: 108bn Units (Quantity upwards 94.6bn to 108bn)
Dynasty Investments Manager
Xabiers Capital Bond #1/2 (FINISHED)
Xabiers Capital Bond #3/4 |
Tasko Pal
Heron Corporation
|
Posted - 2009.01.12 20:19:00 -
[26]
Originally by: Xabier
As Joseph hasn't posted the weekly report yet thought I'ld post this snapshot.
Mineral Market Analysis: The Forge
Tritanium:
Date, Price (Quantity)
04th, 4.11 (17.5bn units)
05th, 4.11 (13.9bn units)
06th, 4.10 (16.0bn units)
07th, 4.09 (13.1bn units)
08th, 4.09 (12.7bn units)
09th, 4.10 (21.4bn units)
10th, 4.08 (13.4bn units)
Trend: 4.20->4.08 (Price Downwards)
Total: 108bn Units (Quantity upwards 94.6bn to 108bn)
Since I'm thinking of it, the January 9 volume is an annual high too for The Forge region. |
rubico1337
Caldari
nefarious badgers inc
|
Posted - 2009.01.14 21:01:00 -
[27]
Originally by: Akita T
Edited by: Akita T on 09/01/2009 07:27:16
Hello and welcome to "things Akita T explained 2+ years ago but not many botherered to listen properly, especially not the new economist".
Long story short:
Mining yield kept (and keeps) increasing while mineral distribution in ores (and ore distribution in the cluster) remained unchanged.
There's a pretty strong downwards pressure on the basket price of minerals, the only exceptions being short periods of intense consumption (big alliance rebuilding a capital fleet, new patch brings new ship types in, etc)
Prices can only go down to 70% of "base price" due to the age-old "insurance scam" trick.
Therefore, there's almost always an excess of MOST minerals available on the market at ever decreasing prices (as a whole) except whatever the heck the bottleneck material is at the time being, which keeps on rising up to the level where reprocessing NPC stuff can supply endless units at that price.
Highends and to a lesser degree midends are being shat into existance in massive amounts in the drone regions by belt-ratting.
People want to make as much ISK as possible, so they mine/rat/whatever as much as possible on whatever is most profitable (and available) at the moment.
The bottleneck is therefore lowends, particularly tritanium.
Several measures were put in place to lift any NPC-driven pricecaps on Tritanium. Trit goes up even more.
This means trit goes up, Veld goes up, other trit-heavy ores go up, all other ores go down like a rock.
Tritanium unavoidably spiked, then just as unavoidably fluctuated, then resumed climbing again.
Veldspar slowly becomes one of the best ores to mine after "the ABCs" (at least on par with everything else except the ABCs, that is).
One can only assume that CCP intends to eventually remove any and all NPC refineables from the market, so no more caps would exist.
Tritanium will ONLY stop climbing for good (in case all caps are removed) when mining Veldspar will be pretty damned close (not equal, but close, as in "at least half") in ISK/hour with mining Arkonor/Bistot/Crokite, and the 4th best ore to mine, period.
That is, unless somebody at CCP wakes the frak up and smells the rotten coffee beans already.
BROKEN DESIGN FOR MINING, made increasingly worse by "free market" measures suggested by EyjoG and accepted by the rest of the CCP staff WITHOUT fixing the underlying problem, that of the broken design of ore distribution and mineral composition.
That's the problem. The reason why Trit/Veld is "so good". CCP's fault 100%.
The players are just doing what they should be doing, given the circumstances.
Here's one possible fix.
Been around for 1.5+ years.
Anybody cared ? Not really.
Start caring now ? Probably not yet.
Happy ?
"Discuss"...
akita... i hate to say it and i dont usually result to ad hominem, but after seeing all your "ideas" and "guides" i have been forced to come to the conclusion that you are a megalomaniac who feeds off of you self-precived intellectual superiority, the nerd rage is stong with you 
Originally by: Blind Man
okies so liek when u warp in on them u shod target them... and stuff k.then u FIRE ZE MISSILES and use your heavy nos cause it drain their cap then u click the jhammer and dampenener |
Waseem
The Graduates
Morsus Mihi
|
Posted - 2009.01.15 05:39:00 -
[28]
So I keep seeing all these doomsday posts about not enough trit in high sec. There are posts about moon sized roids going unused in low sec and 0.0 space. I thought hey, I am out in 0.0 maybe there is a legitimate problem with roids in high sec. People keep saying they are mined out. They say you need to go over 25 jumps from trade hubs..
So I fired up the good ole probe with a survey scanner and went to one of my old mining haunts. It has a station in system. It even has a 50% refinery one jump out if you don't have the skills for the one on site. It is a dead end system. It is less then 15 jumps from Jita.
Look what I found....
Massive Roids of Veldspar
Something like..11 belt all just like this one. A couple had been slightly touched. But on average there was over a million veld in each belt just waiting to be popped.
I guess people just aren't looking hard enough? |
Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
|
Posted - 2009.01.15 07:19:00 -
[29]
8 jumps out of a trade hub and it's almost not worth mining, 15 jumps out is really out of the question.
_
Create a character || Fit a ship || Get some ISK |
PaddyPaddy Nihildarnik
Gallente
aurorae pacificas
|
Posted - 2009.01.15 07:47:00 -
[30]
Edited by: PaddyPaddy Nihildarnik on 15/01/2009 07:49:00
Originally by: Akita T
8 jumps out of a trade hub and it's almost not worth mining, 15 jumps out is really out of the question.
I hear this alot, why?
Freighter services used to put a tag of 1mil per system. At the very most you are looking at 15mil to have someone else haul it for you. An entire freighter load of trit is what 80-90mil units? At current prices thats approx 360mil per freighter load. Im not a miner so im not sure, isnt the ores more compressed then the refined amounts, therefore wouldnt profits be more?
If veld is honestly THAT low in supply (which I dont believe but for arguments sake ill bite) close to trade hubs surely the 15mil MAX you would pay someone else to haul it would be a worthy investment? You could always frieght it with an alt/corp op/ freight to a system say 4jumps from hub and lug it there yourself if its THAT much of a problem.
The major complaint I always here is that the time it takes to compete with ore thieves/ can flippers/ other miners is a major costing issue. Surely then the systems beyond the hubs, away from the competition is still a viable source of trit.
Going further down this road, anyone willing to mine, refine and sell large quantities of trit for a LOWER price, lets say 2.5-3isk/u at these outlying systems should contact me IMMEDIATELY. I will definitely take it off your hands at that price, and move it to the hubs myself. |
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