Because the universe conspiring against a certain coin toss making it have a 0% probability to flip heads and 100% probability to flip tails is so much more believable.

Because the universe conspiring against a certain coin toss making it have EXACTLY a 0% probability to flip heads and EXACTLY 100% probability to flip tails is so much more believable.

Exactly.

To state that it is impossible to achieve any number of consecutive heads is to state that at some point, the odds of the coin flip become something other than 50/50.

He doesn't understand that, and refuses all attempts to demonstrate it.

I never said anything of the sort

[...]it is less likely that you will flip another heads after you have flipped a number of them in a row. The external and time contingent forces acting on the coin are forever changing. So you are not just factoring in the pure random chance of the coin anymore you are now also taking into account the external and independent factors. So with each flip it becomes less and less likely that you will get another because of the external and time contingent forces that are forever changing.

1) Can we agree that EVERY coin toss has a 50% chance of landing on heads?

Yea but that does not mean it drops to 0 by any means.

You didn't get it either. The forces acting on the coin were never 50:50, the shape of the coin converts them to a 50:50 output. There is a huge difference between these two ideas. Read better.... please

You don't seem to understand the idea of a multitude of forces acting upon the coin and how the very shape of the coin acts like a machine designed to convert them to a 50:50 output.

You have to try and NOT think like a calculator and more like a human being.

It only appears that I am foundering because you are not grasping what I am saying. You are so stuck looking at the averages that you are not paying attention to the many minute variables.



1. A Coin is acted upon by a sphere of forces
2. Those forces are forever changing and presumably never repeat
3. Those forces are time contingent
4. Those forces can also be influenced by the very impact of the coin itself



A sphere of interactionGǪ translated into an output that you see as two sides. The value does not have to drop to 0 probability because the forces acting on the coin are spherical in nature. In order for that coin to turn up heads 1,000 times a bizarre and unnatural alignment of EXTERNAL VARIABLES would have to interact with the coin in order to generate that result.

The universe is more chaotic and evenly distributed then that. The values should not translate to 1,000 or 1,000,000 heads or tails in a row because that is not the nature of the universe. But on the smaller scale it may appear that this is so because the external factors are time contingent.

But that being said, I have never seen any random output that generated 100 consecutive anything. Ever. Have you? I find that very interesting.

I don't find it even remotely interesting. And it was thoroughly explained why that is not interesting. Hint : there's not enough storage space on this planet to represent the length of the tries needed for that to have a good chance of happening.

At this moment I have no more proof of that exact boundary then you have proof that you can roll 1 billion heads in a row. But I suggest that you are looking at it from the wrong perspective entirely and opening your mind might yield unexpected rewards.

But that being said, I have never seen any random output that generated 100 consecutive anything. Ever. Have you? I find that very interesting.

You may fail at programing is all. As stated the total output does not have to be recorded.

I believe that I clearly stated "the burden of proof is on you" (tm).


And then I added...




Ya know... just to be 100% clear for the reading comprehension disabled portion of the forum. You're welcome!

I thought through the basic logic for such a program on my drive home. All you'd have to do is count the total number of coin tosses and record the current streak and the highest streak. The data storage would be minute.

The problem comes with the time required to produce the volume of flips necessary to yield the results you expect. Post #2 again...at 10,000 flips per second, it would take the current age of the universe just to yield a run of 60 consecutive heads.

So the reality of it may be different then the math do to unexpected variables. If you are unwilling to account for such a possibility, then you are simply beneath me sir. I prefer the purer arts of science over the religious version. Anything that is unproven may be questioned and nothing is fact until it is observed. Welcome to the real world.

Well sir, then it remains a theory to some of us.

I am not prepared to put my "faith" in any single equation, because there is always room for the unexpected. For example, perhaps a 100% perfectly fair coin flipped in a closed environment might behave the way that the math says it would... but is there even such a thing? It's just like infinity, it is imaginary. Fairy dust and pixies expressed in numbers.

So the reality of it may be different then the math do to unexpected variables. If you are unwilling to account for such a possibility, then you are simply beneath me sir.

From what I know about computers and mathematics (limited as it may be) a random sequence of 1 and 0 spit out of a computer will never render a perfect rendered and functioning EVE Online as we see it today. I donGÇÖt think that you could even expect to see pong.

blah blah blah blah

However, that doesn't change that fact that you are claiming that it's impossible for randomness to generate a pattern simply because that pattern looks nonrandom to a certain observer