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Author |
Thread Statistics | Show CCP posts - 70 post(s) |
Seith Kali
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
94
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Posted - 2014.06.03 12:07:00 -
[271] - Quote
Ok, seriously though. Once you are done wrangling would you be so kind as to reply to this? It is fairly pressing. Apprentice Goonswarm Economic Warfare Consultant - Drowning in entitlement and privilege.-á |
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CCP Greyscale
C C P C C P Alliance
2325
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Posted - 2014.06.03 12:46:00 -
[272] - Quote
Seith Kali wrote:Ok, seriously though. Once you are done wrangling would you be so kind as to reply to this? It is fairly pressing.
Waiting for the relevant person to be back in the office. |
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Sales Alt negrodamus
SalesAltCorp
1
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Posted - 2014.06.03 16:16:00 -
[273] - Quote
Now that Kronos is deployed, can we get an ETA for Crius on sisi so we can test the incredibly large volume of knobs and wheels you've turned? |
Kenneth Feld
Habitual Euthanasia Pandemic Legion
65
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Posted - 2014.06.03 16:49:00 -
[274] - Quote
Sales Alt negrodamus wrote:Now that Kronos is deployed, can we get an ETA for Crius on sisi so we can test the incredibly large volume of knobs and wheels you've turned?
They said a few weeks ago, they are shooting for Jun 15th for everything to be on SiSi
No, I won't post a link cause ~effort |
Throwaway Sam Atild
Republic Military School Minmatar Republic
3
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Posted - 2014.06.04 01:37:00 -
[275] - Quote
Me again. More math, more module complaints.
Taking a look at a rank 15.6 T2 module, which is pretty consistent with my examples in the past (warp scrambler, adaptive invul, 10mn afterburner) some changes have been made that appear to decrease the TTM by a significant chunk.
Old TTM 10x rank 15.6 product: 2x (23,976 s Max Copy Time + 9,000 s Invention Attempt) OR 10x (11,000 s build time)
110,000 s Build time bottleneck
New TTM 10x rank 15.6 product: 2x (1,440 s Single Copy Time + 30,900 Invention Attempt) OR 10x (4,680 s build time)
64,680 s Science time bottleneck
Based on this the TTM is cut in half.
The problem is even worse when you take into account the lab bonus to invention time at .5.
New TTM with rank 15.6 product and array bonuses: 2x (.75 x 1,1440 + .5 x 30,900 Invention attempt) OR 10x (.75 x 4,680 s build time)
35,100 s Build time bottleneck
Shoot! Now we have a TTM that's 41% of what it used to be.
Rephrased, a single T2 builder can build over twice the amount he currently can in the same time. Phrased another way, a single producer now uses up more than twice the demand for an item he used to. I'm not certain what the goals of the Dev team for module production are, but my best guess is that you'd like to see more people playing this part of the game.
My interpretation of the way T2 module economy works is that the major determinant of the isk that can be made by doing it is linked to the amount of production time required to fill the demand. Increase the time it takes to build something, and the difference in price between the raw materials and the finished product increase. Decrease the time and the difference drops. When the difference drops, producers walk.
Because the new expansion will likely raise peoples interest in production, and the removal of barriers to the field will do the same, I would suggest being very cautious about lowering the TTM on any items. I believe it would be wise to increase them in most cases, and at the very least maintain the status quo. |
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CCP Greyscale
C C P C C P Alliance
2331
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Posted - 2014.06.04 10:13:00 -
[276] - Quote
Throughput balance is on my to-do list. It gets an awful lot worse if we do end up extending all job times to ~24h as then everyone's always at peak capacity. |
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Gilbaron
Free-Space-Ranger Nulli Secunda
1445
|
Posted - 2014.06.04 10:57:00 -
[277] - Quote
just reduce the base success then :)
did anyone already mention that ~20hour cycles are pretty damn convenient ? GRRR Goons |
Apelacja
Caldari Provisions Caldari State
71
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Posted - 2014.06.04 11:38:00 -
[278] - Quote
I have a question to CCP Greyscale:
Are u awarned that like 80 % of BPO`s needed to make BSs and JFs will be not needed anymore? Are u going to buy all those BPO`s back? Otherwise it is just another crash on market for some BPO`s. I have many doubts right now of what u are doing bcs it has to large impact on market. Myabe leave coppy times for bs/capitals? |
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CCP Greyscale
C C P C C P Alliance
2331
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Posted - 2014.06.04 13:13:00 -
[279] - Quote
It's not something that's on the top of my list of concerns right now, but I'm prepared to be persuaded otherwise. |
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Carniflex
StarHunt Mordus Angels
223
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Posted - 2014.06.04 16:24:00 -
[280] - Quote
Apelacja wrote:I have a question to CCP Greyscale:
Are u awarned that like 80 % of BPO`s needed to make BSs and JFs will be not needed anymore? Are u going to buy all those BPO`s back? Otherwise it is just another crash on market for some BPO`s. I have many doubts right now of what u are doing bcs it has to large impact on market. Myabe leave coppy times for bs/capitals?
The problem is the POS arrays. With the price of these prints it would be silly to expect people to put the BPO's into POS so making only station production viable for these items would kinda screw over small time / casual produces in a pretty bad way. And while it migth be hard to believe there are actually casual capital and BS produces out there. You know, people doing perhaps 2 carriers a month or so.
Here, sanity... niiiice sanity, come to daddy... okay, that's a good sanity... *THWONK!* GOT the bastard. |
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Apelacja
Caldari Provisions Caldari State
71
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Posted - 2014.06.04 18:00:00 -
[281] - Quote
Carniflex wrote:Apelacja wrote:I have a question to CCP Greyscale:
Are u awarned that like 80 % of BPO`s needed to make BSs and JFs will be not needed anymore? Are u going to buy all those BPO`s back? Otherwise it is just another crash on market for some BPO`s. I have many doubts right now of what u are doing bcs it has to large impact on market. Myabe leave coppy times for bs/capitals? The problem is the POS arrays. With the price of these prints it would be silly to expect people to put the BPO's into POS so making only station production viable for these items would kinda screw over small time / casual produces in a pretty bad way. And while it migth be hard to believe there are actually casual capital and BS produces out there. You know, people doing perhaps 2 carriers a month or so.
It can look like casual job for u but there are ppl who cook more then 30-50 capitals per month. And ppl are making most of the capitals in station right now so the BPO by itself is still busy. After patch it still be busy but just coppied before making cap ( or made in null stations if there will be - 5 % me in outpost).
I have a concern about JFs bcs i`m one of the builders. Only reducing coppy time made around 80 % of my BPOs useless. And it is visible even right now on market. Just look at all thoose BPC of freighters being sold on contracts for lol prices. And believe there is no growing market to adopt those freighter`s bpos for propoduction purpose.
And now imagine situation of positive me invented bpc`es. If the difference will be up to 2 % between one run and 5 run even it will be not worth to do anyother invention than 5 run. ( RIght now u have 8 runs and 2 runs which are only 1 % ME worse).
So according to my calculations ( and yea i build JF`s) like 90 % of freighters bpos will be useless in the best optimistic case. In worse 97% will be out of use.
Another story is when the - 50 % -60% coppy time will be set up then capitals coppies will flood market even more.
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Apelacja
Caldari Provisions Caldari State
71
|
Posted - 2014.06.04 18:26:00 -
[282] - Quote
CCP Greyscale wrote:It's not something that's on the top of my list of concerns right now, but I'm prepared to be persuaded otherwise.
Let`s make some calculations ( with fully skilled characters everything lvl 5)
Now coppy time is 54 days after patch it will be 13 days. All freighters are built from 1 run invention run due to 10 % difference for 1 ME, and chance is 40% ( 42 in theory, but after 2 000 invention for me it below 40 %, i will assume it is 40%).
So u need around 2,5 coppy of Freighter BPO to make one JF. so it is around 50 coppies to make 20 JF`s. It is 5 characters coppying and building per month when u count small queue on slots in hs and when u don`t build freighters.
Altogher u need 50 coppies so it is 50 BPO`s.
To achive the same state after patch u will need only 18 BPO`s under coppy all the time in hs station. In outpost 9 BPO`s. When invention will be changed to positive ME and difference will be only 1% between 8 run and 1 run then u will need only 1,2 BPO........
So as u see from 50 BPO`s constatnly being used in POS u will land into 1,2 in the worst case and 18 at the best without changed to invetion.
Now look at market in Jita:
charons - around 40 per day Rhea - around 9 per day.
to create Rhea u needed number of BPO`s enough to build 4,5 charons.
And as long as there will be no more BPO`s needed to create base coppy for invention u will get only from that step enough BPO`s to build additoional 40 charons per day.
In summary after changes there WILL BE 2 TIMES MORE BPO`s of freighters then currently needed.
Aproximately around 2 000 freighters BPO`s will be not used anymore and become totally useless.
And freighters BPO cost u 2 b per. Problem is somehow smaller with BS`s bcs number of involved BPO`s is much much smaller but for some industrialists still can exist.
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Aluka 7th
161
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Posted - 2014.06.04 20:53:00 -
[283] - Quote
So you made investment that will still be profitable but will leave you with couple of unused BPOs that you can still sell through forums and contracts but you can't be bothered and want buy back program to cash out asap?
Hahahahahaha!
Its like I buy 20 battleship BPOs when there is high demand and then ask CCP to buy them back when demand drops because of some ship stat nerfing change. |
Throwaway Sam Atild
Republic Military School Minmatar Republic
4
|
Posted - 2014.06.04 21:33:00 -
[284] - Quote
CCP Greyscale wrote:Throughput balance is on my to-do list. It gets an awful lot worse if we do end up extending all job times to ~24h as then everyone's always at peak capacity.
Yeah, you make a great point here and I borked this up a bit conceptually by assuming everyone was a production robot instead of a human being. So at a glance and roughly taking into account the affect of skills and labs, we're looking at a 3.5-4.5 hour science time on the new Rank 15.6 modules. The old limit was more like 15 hours or so build time.
The implication here is that there's a range of possibilities for TTM depending on how active the player is.
Old TTMs: A player puts in 2x invention attempts over roughly two hours and installs a build, producing 10x a day.
New TTMs: A player has to put in 2x invention attempts a day over roughly 4 hours to get 10x a day. A player can put in 4x invention attempts and 2x builds over roughly 12 hours to produce 20x units a day.
The opportunity exists to make invention both more appealing to people, building off of Gilbaron's point that 20 hr cycles are pretty damn convenient.
I stand by the concept that if you decrease TTM you'll see an upward force on material prices and a downward force on sale prices. Eventually the margin, or paycheck for the producer, will shrink enough that it hits a "so what" factor where its no longer worth building. This is the magic spot where the effort and reward are enough for someone to play the production game. It's also where the prices gap will stabilize at. In my day to day work, there are maybe 2-6 15.6 rank modules that meet the "so what" factor for me. I expect that if TTM decreases, POS access increases and general manufacturing interest this margin is going to shrink to the point that you'll lose a lot of the potential 'new' manufacturers Krius brings in as they decide there just isn't any isk in the field.
Now on the other hand if you increase TTM you'll see a downward force on mat prices and an upward force on sale prices. Because this increases the pay-check for producers, I expect you would have to severely increase TTM before you out-run the available production force. In the doomsday scenario where you increase TTM too much, the affect would be a significant enough rise in T2 modules to where people thought twice about buying them. Honestly I don't consider that scenario completely awful. I'm not suggesting you pump up TTM through the roof, but if you did you might breathe some relevance back into the T1 module market, or make corporations consider in-house production rather than the market.
Looping back to my suggestion
Use the 15.6 module (off of rank 6 bpo) as a base-line and set the invention to 20hrs like Gilbaron suggested. Set the build time to ~40-44 hours. This allows 10x modules (100x across the standard 10 slots) to be made every two days by a production character who is doing one install a day. The 20 hours, like the recent jump clone reduction, gives some lee-way so that people don't have to get home at the exact same time each day. It doesn't give an advantage to people for engaging in a grindy/painful experience by logging in 8x times a day to do installs. I feel people should be rewarded for effort, but effort in production should be thoughtful planning, not a punishing clickfest.
For smaller items, (crystals/ammo/drones) use the same install cycle and adjust upward the runs on the output T2 BPC. If you want, crank up the mats consumed, but I don't know it will make a huge difference either way.
It appears larger items have already received a TTM extension in general based on others analysis. I don't have the experience or understanding to comment intelligently on items larger than the module market. |
Apelacja
Caldari Provisions Caldari State
71
|
Posted - 2014.06.04 21:34:00 -
[285] - Quote
Aluka 7th wrote:So you made investment that will still be profitable but will leave you with couple of unused BPOs (in your current setup) that you can still sell through forums and contracts but you can't be bothered and you want buy back program instead to cash out asap?
Hahahahahaha!
Its like I buy 20 battleship BPOs when there is high demand and then ask CCP to buy them back when demand drops as result of some ship nerfing change they did.
U don`t understand anything i see. Many ppl will loose and it will be spread between them, and i dont talk about this. This is not just a demand drop - which will be natural fluctuation. And such as change should be in the case of capitals ships commited partially not braking down the whole system in one patch.
Another story that i propsed that BPO`s will be by back by NPC ( so also BSs etc bpos) 10-15% below so still ppl loose on them.
CCP is changing totally S&I and i just pointed issue what it cause and which wasn`t mentioned before. It is not aboud demand but changes. Market in EVE always try to stabilize. And proposed changes can be compared to country changings taxes from 30 % to 80 %. If u still don`t see nothing wrong with it there sry but there is something wrong with You.
EVE online is paritally an economic game. AT least for many ppl involved in S&I it is. And changing so vital part of eve just like that can destroy everything quite fast. Consider that i own also T2 BPO`s and i don`t complain about them. More i`m afraid about teams but without exact data right now its hard to say anything. When changes will be avaible on Sis then we start to talk. |
Firvain
Wildly Inappropriate Goonswarm Federation
14
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Posted - 2014.06.05 00:16:00 -
[286] - Quote
Are people really complaining that you suddenly need less BPO's to do the same after crius? Really?? You just got a way to double your production and you are complaining about that?? Its like you got handed a free BPO and then moan that your old bpo isnt worth as much now anymore ><
If you realy want to sell your BPO's im sure there are plenty of new people going into Industry that want your BPO's |
Sabriz Adoudel
Mission BLITZ
3043
|
Posted - 2014.06.05 00:27:00 -
[287] - Quote
Firvain wrote:Are people really complaining that you suddenly need less BPO's to do the same after crius? Really?? You just got a way to double your production and you are complaining about that?? Its like you got handed a free BPO and then moan that your old bpo isnt worth as much now anymore ><
If you realy want to sell your BPO's im sure there are plenty of new people going into Industry that want your BPO's
This.
Not to mention that every balance change hurts some people.
Go ahead with the changes. Then, you've set a precedent of being willing to nerf existing BPOs, which is a good starting point for addressing T2 BPOs in future. https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=346564 - a proposal to overhaul the Logistics skill https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=238931 - an idea for a new form of hybrid PVE/PVP content. www.minerbumping.com - ganking miners and causing chaos |
Sizeof Void
Ninja Suicide Squadron
436
|
Posted - 2014.06.05 02:32:00 -
[288] - Quote
Since it is only 7 weeks until Crius is released, isn't it about time for this stuff to migrate into an updated devblog on the changes to the industry changes, as described in earlier devblogs, which were originally supposed to come out with Kronos?
This new "10 releases per year" schedule is going to be tough to get used to... for everyone, I think. :) |
Sales Alt negrodamus
SalesAltCorp
1
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Posted - 2014.06.05 02:50:00 -
[289] - Quote
The time to market discussion brought up a really interesting point I didn't considder about driving item sale and material sale prices.
Leaving the invention/manu time really high will severely adjust the TTM upwards, which is a good thing for industrialists but a bit less so for players.
Not sure where the balance lies. |
Throwaway Sam Atild
Republic Military School Minmatar Republic
4
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Posted - 2014.06.05 03:49:00 -
[290] - Quote
Sales Alt negrodamus wrote: Leaving the invention/manu time really high will severely adjust the TTM upwards, which is a good thing for industrialists but a bit less so for players.
I tried to give both sides of this some consideration when I wrote my earlier post. The number that an increased TTM expands is the difference between the price of the materials and the sale of the product. This number has a floor of sorts, below which people stop wanting the job. You get less producers in the field and that keeps the prices in this range. If you look at the T2 module market, it usually doesn't make a lot of difference what you make, everything pays the same. The exception are short little spikes in demand.
What this leads me to believe is that there is a surplus of producers, who given the right motivation may rejoin the production fold.
So what's the effect on a real life module price? I've been using both the Warp Scram II and the Adaptive invul as examples frequently, so I'll take a look at a glance. An adaptive invul costs ~1M to build and sells at ~1.6M as this is written. So the production price is 600k. Meanwhile a Warp Scram costs around 600k to build and sells at ~1M.
When I'm fitting ships, I can say that I honestly don't care whether the warp scram cost 1M or 3M to buy. I'm not super rich, but these decisions just aren't anything that is going to break the bank for an average player. Let's hypothetically say that we break production with these changes by increasing TTM to the point where a warp scram costs 3M to buy at market. The producers in heaven, his profits have quintupled. The buyer is probably not going to rage quit over the price hike. I expect that more people will be inclined to join in production to get a share of the isk there, or even to manufacture their own equipment.
The more I think about it, the more I see TTM as the 'minimum wage' for T2 production. I'll be the first to admit that as a low-level producer with only 6 months or so behind me, I lack a lot of the insight that the oldbies, Devs, and market folk have. It could very well be that there is some horribly game breaking consequence of increasing TTM, but I don't see it. What I do see is an opportunity to make bproduction an option worth bothering with for the many folks who have an interest in this style of gameplay. |
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Apelacja
Caldari Provisions Caldari State
71
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Posted - 2014.06.05 08:27:00 -
[291] - Quote
Firvain wrote:Are people really complaining that you suddenly need less BPO's to do the same after crius? Really?? You just got a way to double your production and you are complaining about that?? Its like you got handed a free BPO and then moan that your old bpo isnt worth as much now anymore ><
If you realy want to sell your BPO's im sure there are plenty of new people going into Industry that want your BPO's
U cannot product with income more than market demand. Some basics for you: http://www.investopedia.com/university/economics/economics3.asp
And google 'residual demand curve'.
And i doubt that in nearest future eve will have 2 times more players to cover additional free BPO`s |
Gilbaron
Free-Space-Ranger Nulli Secunda
1446
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Posted - 2014.06.05 13:39:00 -
[292] - Quote
In order to discuss ttm implications we need the data on what is currently build, using how many characters, how many lines, how much (active) capacity is actually used and how much potential capacity is remains unused by active and potential industrialists.
And even If CCP actually releases that data some serious numbers crunching is required before one could make an educated and good statement. And I'm not talking about some excel files here, but spss/stata or some other professional tools GRRR Goons |
Retar Aveymone
BUTTECORP INC Goonswarm Federation
407
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Posted - 2014.06.05 16:55:00 -
[293] - Quote
Apelacja wrote:Firvain wrote:Are people really complaining that you suddenly need less BPO's to do the same after crius? Really?? You just got a way to double your production and you are complaining about that?? Its like you got handed a free BPO and then moan that your old bpo isnt worth as much now anymore ><
If you realy want to sell your BPO's im sure there are plenty of new people going into Industry that want your BPO's U cannot product with income more than market demand. Some basics for you: http://www.investopedia.com/university/economics/economics3.aspAnd google 'residual demand curve'. And i doubt that in nearest future eve will have 2 times more players to cover additional free BPO`s any economics graph that looks like those is econ 101 crap that is utterly unrelated to the real world and intended only to get people thinking in a certain way and have an extremely rough and erroneous grasp of certain concepts, and should never, ever, be applied to the real world or even something as simple as eve |
Firvain
Wildly Inappropriate Goonswarm Federation
15
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Posted - 2014.06.05 17:46:00 -
[294] - Quote
Apelacja wrote:Firvain wrote:Are people really complaining that you suddenly need less BPO's to do the same after crius? Really?? You just got a way to double your production and you are complaining about that?? Its like you got handed a free BPO and then moan that your old bpo isnt worth as much now anymore ><
If you realy want to sell your BPO's im sure there are plenty of new people going into Industry that want your BPO's U cannot product with income more than market demand. Some basics for you: http://www.investopedia.com/university/economics/economics3.aspAnd google 'residual demand curve'. And i doubt that in nearest future eve will have 2 times more players to cover additional free BPO`s
No but you can sell it, coz plenty of people still want new BPO's and can invest that ISK and the freed up industry slot into a diffrent market.
And there are always people looking to get new BPO's just to have em, **** im one of those :D |
Soldarius
Deadman W0nderland Test Alliance Please Ignore
696
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Posted - 2014.06.05 19:34:00 -
[295] - Quote
Aryth wrote:mynnna wrote:Theng Hofses wrote:mynnna wrote:You seem to be operating under the flawed assumption that this is it for invention changes when it's been said many times over that a full rework for invention is still coming after Crius. The purpose of these changes is on the first page of the thread, if you would be so good as to educate yourself. I would note they while it has not been mentioned, these changes also have the upsides of a) closing the competitive gap between T2 BPOs and invention and perhaps more significantly and certainly more importantly b) placing a greater emphasis on the higher skill parts of invention (the actual inventing) as opposed to the copying. After all, specialization should be rewarded. Having 20+ characters that can do invention with at least 4s, but mostly 5s in the relevant skills where I invent, I still fail to see the reward. Maybe I am just really bad at this game. Wouldn't be the first time, won't be the last time. Aight, so I have to spell it out for you. That's fine. The reward is that with an emphasis on invention rather than copying, you are (going to be) on a higher footing with 20+ invention characters than someone who has five invention characters being fed by 15 copy alts. I don't know why you bother. At this point we should just have an black obelisk and ape graphic for these threads.
I have a screen cap of the obelisk in a mission space if you want it. GÇ£I personally refuse to help AAA take space from itself so it can become an even shittier version of itselfGÇ¥
-Grath Telkin, 2014. |
Soldarius
Deadman W0nderland Test Alliance Please Ignore
697
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Posted - 2014.06.05 20:30:00 -
[296] - Quote
Double post, yeah. Didn't want serious stuff in the same post.
Looking at the relationship of current invented BPC ME levels to the proposed new ME levels and how it has been stated that the new levels will accomodate the need for a -2 modifier to ME and the percentage change to efficiency that requires, does this mean that all ME0 BPs are going to require 70% more materials? Or will all BPOs come with a base ME of .... whoops we're off the scale.
Numbers:
Currently an ME-6 invented BPC has 70% waste, assuming base 10% waste. Eliminating negative MEs requires the lowest new ME level of 0 to require 70% more materials than current base levels.
This also puts the base level of invented BPC at ME+2. However, ME+2 is only a 2% difference from ME0, not the 20% difference it is between the current ME-4 and ME-6.
Or are we simply scrapping all that invention waste and saying invented BPCs will all start with ME2, 2% more efficient than the new (current*1.11) base? Because that is a massive reduction in demand for T2 supplies.
GÇ£I personally refuse to help AAA take space from itself so it can become an even shittier version of itselfGÇ¥
-Grath Telkin, 2014. |
Ereshgikal
Pigs and Sows Gentlemen's Agreement
27
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Posted - 2014.06.05 21:49:00 -
[297] - Quote
Soldarius wrote: Or are we simply scrapping all that invention waste and saying invented BPCs will all start with ME2, 2% more efficient than the new (current*1.11) base? Because that is a massive reduction in demand for T2 supplies.
And that is why all the T2 BPOs will be rebased to new values (besides the extra 11% that happens when 'waste' is removed). CCP Greyscale has posted on this...in this thread or the other, can't keep track of it. Go find it. The aim is to keep the T2 component consumption across the whole market the same as today.
My guesstimate is that the rebase will be between 10% and 20%; depending on how the T2 component consumption is spread across the various existing ME-levels (including T2 BPOs). The higher proportion of the total consumption of T2 components that is made by T2 BPOs, the lower the adjustment will be...and if a lot of components are used for building from ME -6 BPC the adjustment factor goes way up.
HTH |
Gilbaron
Free-Space-Ranger Nulli Secunda
1447
|
Posted - 2014.06.06 07:07:00 -
[298] - Quote
Soldarius wrote:2. However, ME+2 is only a 2% difference from ME0, not the 20% difference it is between the current ME-4 and ME-6.
Or are we simply scrapping all that invention waste and saying invented BPCs will all start with ME2, 2% more efficient than the new (current*1.11) base? Because that is a massive reduction in demand for T2 supplies.
components will be adjusted. GRRR Goons |
Carniflex
StarHunt Mordus Angels
224
|
Posted - 2014.06.06 09:06:00 -
[299] - Quote
I can sort of understand the complaint about potentially needing much less BPO's for JF invention as it will lover the barrier of entry into that segment invention substantially. Meaning that currently established serious producers would face potentially much higher competition. At the moment needing substantial pile of the T1 freighter BPO's for copy needs is significant barrier of entry.
However, While I can be sympathetic with having all the sudden 50 - 100 bil tied up in "excess" BPO's in my opinion it is not a huge problem as the manufacturer can keep doing exactly what he has done with smaller number of BPO's and over time will be able to liquidate excess with quite minimal losses (or with small profit, assuming the BPO's have been bought pre price rebalance at ~10% under market value). Only problem is dropping margins when more people start doing it but given that the upcoming patch pretty much nukes the status quo in every imaginable manner I do not see a reason to expect that for some reason JF production should be spared.
In general the currently established mass producer for these ships would keep good chunk if its edge as majority of the hurdle of producing these ships in a profitable way is not in invention unless something has changed recently. I mean the library of reasonably researched adv capital component prints (which will be somewhat harder to push to very high levels after the ME research changes as far as I understand) and established supply lines for the needed moon minerals. Here, sanity... niiiice sanity, come to daddy... okay, that's a good sanity... *THWONK!* GOT the bastard. |
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CCP Greyscale
C C P C C P Alliance
2332
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Posted - 2014.06.06 16:48:00 -
[300] - Quote
Apelacja wrote:CCP Greyscale wrote:It's not something that's on the top of my list of concerns right now, but I'm prepared to be persuaded otherwise. Let`s make some calculations ( with fully skilled characters everything lvl 5) Now coppy time is 54 days after patch it will be 13 days. All freighters are built from 1 run invention run due to 10 % difference for 1 ME, and chance is 40% ( 42 in theory, but after 2 000 invention for me it below 40 %, i will assume it is 40%). So u need around 2,5 coppy of Freighter BPO to make one JF. so it is around 50 coppies to make 20 JF`s. It is 5 characters coppying and building per month when u count small queue on slots in hs and when u don`t build freighters. Altogher u need 50 coppies so it is 50 BPO`s. To achive the same state after patch u will need only 18 BPO`s under coppy all the time in hs station. In outpost 9 BPO`s. When invention will be changed to positive ME and difference will be only 1% between 8 run and 1 run then u will need only 1,2 BPO........ So as u see from 50 BPO`s constatnly being used in POS u will land into 1,2 in the worst case and 18 at the best without changed to invetion. Now look at market in Jita: charons - around 40 per day Rhea - around 9 per day. to create Rhea u needed number of BPO`s enough to build 4,5 charons. And as long as there will be no more BPO`s needed to create base coppy for invention u will get only from that step enough BPO`s to build additoional 40 charons per day. In summary after changes there WILL BE 2 TIMES MORE BPO`s of freighters then currently needed.Aproximately around 2 000 freighters BPO`s will be not used anymore and become totally useless. And freighters BPO cost u 2 b per. Problem is somehow smaller with BS`s bcs number of involved BPO`s is much much smaller but for some industrialists still can exist. To solve this problem i will suggest:- a way to repackage BPO - Let npc station to buy back BPO at 'old' BPO prices ( before patch ages ago) which were 10-15 % lower then currant. From what i remeber charon BPO for example was going for 1,8 b. Another problem i see in this. In general it was proposed to balance coppy/invention to production time - in crusis this ratio will be far at the edge of illness for T2 bs/freight
This is a reasonable argument. In isolation I'd probably lean towards some method of... I don't want to say reimbursement necessarily, but a way to cash out that investment without taking too much of a haircut would be plausible. We'd have to think through all the consequences of doing so, though, and I can't guarantee where that line of thought would end up yet. |
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