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New "lottery" winners spread the smell of 'wrongness'

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Morkt Drakt	Posted - 2004.03.16 00:25:00 - [1] With the continuation of multiple lottery winners with low RPs being now a fixed trait, dominating the majority of all BPs given out; and with it now becomming clear that multiple individuals are being "extraordinarily lucky" not just once, but twice, sometimes with the same agent for the same BP... isnt it about time that CCP actually came out and made a clear and open declaration about the spread of BPs amongst the R&D community? There is now a palpable stench surrounding the entire "Lottery", permeating substantial sections of the player base who, day by day, continue to lose faith in this supposedly fair and flawless system. If there is nothing wrong with the system, and this is simply a statistical glitch or accident of annecdotal evidence, then CCP should takes the steps now to asuage doubts and concerns that are endemic now in the player population. Even if its a pat on the head and a "Now now boy everything is fine"... but even better if CCP actually take time to double check their own figures and make trebily sure there is no***-up in the system. Everybody can believe in somebody with a tiny few RPs getting mnumentally lucky once... when they start getting monumentally lucky twice..and so do other "Lucky people" its less and less believeable all the time. We want some reassurance... not an inquest, not a trial, not a hanging party.. just some plain good customer relations and community management. Is the lottery working properly? Why does it seem that so many BPs are going to people with only a relatively low number of RPs? In plain english** what was the real nature of the "bug" recently noted as being fixed in the patchlog. - - - - - - NB: Thats one of my questions for this Wednesdays CSM.
Tsavong Lah	Posted - 2004.03.16 00:29:00 - [2] BUMP I got a useless bp after 2 days, carried on researching (now with 1900 RP) and haven't even been offered anything. I purposefully chose a non-ship fiend (high energy physics) so i'd have more chance of getting BPs. Now i hear about ppl getting bps after 1 or 2 days. It _really_ annoys me, and I'd like to see a dev reply explaining how it all works. I was under the impression "more RP=more lottery tickets". Selling Bustards @ 70-75m and Impels @ 100m. Contact me!
IZON	Posted - 2004.03.16 01:11:00 - [3] You know, if you had been one of the 'lucky' low RP winners would you even bother posting Morkt? "...master! there's a guy in the south village called IZON, he is a Ninja!"
Morkt Drakt	Posted - 2004.03.16 01:15:00 - [4] Quote: You know, if you had been one of the 'lucky' low RP winners would you even bother posting Morkt? We HAVE been one of the lucky low RP winners... same guy, twice.
Trevedian	Posted - 2004.03.16 01:20:00 - [5] I agree I am very bothered by CCP's secrecy about how this T2 BP drop process works... The whole T2 fiasco is getting very tedious. I spent an incredible amount of time running missions and traing R&D skills, for what? I have gotten nothing yet and most of what has dropped is junk. But guess what guys CCP still collects their monthly subscription fees from everyone... So what incentive does CCP have not to drag this out for as long as they can? I think if these ridiculous delays continue much longer EVE will suffer and subscriptions will get canceled. 1. So hurry up and get all the T1 BP's out there! 2. Start dropping T2 BP's that aren't junk! Sex0r > you're bounty turns me on.. you seem like the kind of amarrian to dominate me
Rinji	Posted - 2004.03.16 01:44:00 - [6] I too would like to see some general stats from CCP about average points of the winners vs what would be statisticly expected. I think it would do a lot to restore confidence that everything is working as it should. Vice Admiral Rinji Morisato Logistics Division Commanding Officer of Logistics Division
Viduus	Posted - 2004.03.16 02:12:00 - [7] I second this... I posted pretty much the same thing in 2 other threads 3 days ago. The lottery is as broken as the implant drops... or worse. * Public Channel: NEA *
Lucas De'Thal	Posted - 2004.03.16 02:34:00 - [8] I'd like to see some stats. Like out of the total bps released how many were awarded multiple times to a "single" individual. don't have to say what was released or to who. I just want to see how "random" these distributions really are. ______________________________________________ Hellmar > sorry for the attitude, playing a n00b character through the current state just left me a bit bitter dev chat: Mar 18, 2004 hellmar> "you lot are just so clever you have a good history for out smarting us :-S " dev chat: Feb 12, 2004
Agent Shield	Posted - 2004.03.16 03:32:00 - [9] A little concerned here, we had friends tell us to give T2 a try, stay around; thus we did. But with all our work so far, nothing has shown up, and I don't mind. What I do mind is the extremely odd occurance of multiple bp's issued to some players. Let's not forget the corp the other day who somehow insuates they know how to beat the system and can calculate when they will get their next bp. How does this system work? Is it borked? I would also like to know how the bp distribution is handled with regard to issuing and when. Is it Nanotech this week get a bp, then next week ElectronicEngineering, the following week Caldari Starship, etc...; thus if you chose HydromagneticPhysics; you have to wait until the other 11 weeks are done before your turn; and if you missed a bp in Nanotech; you have to wait until each other skillset has been given one. How does CCP determine what item is given out and when? Is it computer generated, at the will of CCP, or some other method? We all know it was a lottery, but when you start seeing abnormalities that don't really sit well with statistical probability; you have to wonder if there isn't something really wrong with this picture. We have been chasing the carrot since Castor; this rabbit is running out of energy physics. Agent Shield
Golgrath	Posted - 2004.03.16 05:46:00 - [10] I know it's statistically possible for all the BPs go to researchers with very few points but it does makes you wonder when all you see is posts about a BP gotten @ 86 RPs and no posts about RP gotten @ ~20k points.
Ertai Vodalion	Posted - 2004.03.16 07:47:00 - [11] just to get some oil into the fire: We got 4 Research Projects running in our Corporation - 3 of them started in the week Castor went live - the 4th Project started at the end of January. The 4th Project turned into success 2 weeks after it has been started - the pilot then started another project - same skill same agent - and was awarded the same BP again 2 days later ... so within 3 weeks of research 2 BPOs for one Pilot - within 3 Months no BPO for the other 3 Players ... collosal bad luck anyone ??
IZON	Posted - 2004.03.16 08:07:00 - [12] Edited by: IZON on 16/03/2004 08:08:37 Isn't that the whole point of lotteries? You have a 'statistical' chance of winning, not a 'guranteed' chance. Generally I aggree, it's odd that low RP's seem to be winning the lion share of BP's Has anyone with very high RP's actually tried 'restarting' their R&D research with the same agent (or even moving to a new agent)? - You might be pleasantly surprised. "...master! there's a guy in the south village called IZON, he is a Ninja!"
Lucas De'Thal	Posted - 2004.03.16 08:50:00 - [13] Quote: Edited by: IZON on 16/03/2004 08:08:37 Isn't that the whole point of lotteries? You have a 'statistical' chance of winning, not a 'guranteed' chance. Generally I aggree, it's odd that low RP's seem to be winning the lion share of BP's Has anyone with very high RP's actually tried 'restarting' their R&D research with the same agent (or even moving to a new agent)? - You might be pleasantly surprised. i can understand statistical chance, but when several people, keep getting the same bp or multiple bp's..... then something tells me the "coding" is not generating enough random choices or is not randoming selecting a varied enough range from the amount of RP's in the pool. EX. player X gets an elite frigate bp with total 500k RP's collected over every player researching in that pool. player X then starts researching right away and again gets an elite frigate. now, you figure out the chances of that happening with more than 1 person, which it has. I can count 5 people on these boards who have gotten multiple bp's from the same research. That's not random my friend. That's a broken system. ______________________________________________ Hellmar > sorry for the attitude, playing a n00b character through the current state just left me a bit bitter dev chat: Mar 18, 2004 hellmar> "you lot are just so clever you have a good history for out smarting us :-S " dev chat: Feb 12, 2004
Drutort	Posted - 2004.03.16 09:16:00 - [14] the sad thing is we will probably never get to know that info, and probably never know what the real issues/bugs were. support Idea: QuickInfo an alternative to ShowInfo my MoBlog
Galban Hunter	Posted - 2004.03.16 09:27:00 - [15] OK lets get this straight: If your researching a starship project your RP get multiplied by 3, so these people will have very high RP totals and as only 2 interceptors (per starships skill) has been released onto the market (i do not know how many bpo's but i'd suspect very low) you are likely to have a very small chance at gaining a ship bpo! Many people chose to research a starship field thinking they would immediately get a bpo within say 10k points... don't be naive! If your researching a weapons tech field your RP get multiplied by 2, no weapons have been released at all yet therefore those people researching weapons will not be at all likely to have gotten a bpo yet! The only thing you guys will get is modules which have a link to the weapons science skill e.g. Rockets and Afterburners, Smartbombs with appropriate damage types etc. If your researching anything else your RP is multiplied by 1 meaning what you see is what you get! A lot of 'useless junk' has already been released and now the duplicates and triplicates etc. are being released, this means you will have a high chance of getting one of these bpo's. And many people do get them, the majority of people on the forum posting that they have got such and such bpo have spent around a month to two months researching, the rest who get a bpo after >99RP have had trememdous luck (not to mention one right after the other!) However most of these bpo's are so called 'junk' as no-one uses them at all. There are more than 8 copies of each of these blueprints out i can assume, giving a good market. Summary over I would also like to see some statistics on the bp drop system and the average etc for whatever. -------------------------------------------- [2005.02.08 13:58:16] Your Mega Beam Laser II perfectly strikes Sansha's Beast, wrecking for 709.6 damage.
Gariuys	Posted - 2004.03.16 09:59:00 - [16] Junk? junk, do you even keep track of what's been released, cause there are some not often used bps in there but most of them are used, and used often. And why in heavens name do people keep on insisting there is nothing wrong when everything we hear and see points in the direction that there is something mayorly wrong. The only "proof" that the system is working as intended is vague assumptions and fictional numbers. For me there is no problem yet, the bps I'm researching for have yet to be released, but people that get a couple of tech2 bps with a couple 100 of RP is sickening. And if it is indeed the result of the system working proper that system should get another look at. ~{When evil and strange get together anything is possible}~ A tool is only useless when you don't know how to use it. - ActiveX The grass is always greener on the other side. - JoCool
Temujin Destovai	Posted - 2004.03.16 10:05:00 - [17] I have to agree. Im starting to lose count of how many times the same person has gotten a second blueprint right after his first with next to no points while those with high amounts are getting nothing. Although it might be plausible for people with nearly no points to get blueprints it is absurd to consider that 7-8 people get "lucky" twice against astronomical odds, while others go out empty. CCP looking at their code or method for releasing these would really be great since something is obviously not so random. The Chronicles of Xanadu
Lucas De'Thal	Posted - 2004.03.16 10:06:00 - [18] Edited by: Lucas De'Thal on 16/03/2004 10:10:58 Quote: OK lets get this straight: If your researching a starship project your RP get multiplied by 3, so these people will have very high RP totals and as only 2 interceptors (per starships skill) has been released onto the market (i do not know how many bpo's but i'd suspect very low) you are likely to have a very small chance at gaining a ship bpo! Many people chose to research a starship field thinking they would immediately get a bpo within say 10k points... don't be naive! If your researching a weapons tech field your RP get multiplied by 2, no weapons have been released at all yet therefore those people researching weapons will not be at all likely to have gotten a bpo yet! The only thing you guys will get is modules which have a link to the weapons science skill e.g. Rockets and Afterburners, Smartbombs with appropriate damage types etc. If your researching anything else your RP is multiplied by 1 meaning what you see is what you get! A lot of 'useless junk' has already been released and now the duplicates and triplicates etc. are being released, this means you will have a high chance of getting one of these bpo's. And many people do get them, the majority of people on the forum posting that they have got such and such bpo have spent around a month to two months researching, the rest who get a bpo after >99RP have had trememdous luck (not to mention one right after the other!) However most of these bpo's are so called 'junk' as no-one uses them at all. There are more than 8 copies of each of these blueprints out i can assume, giving a good market. Summary over The Stilleto Elite frigate bp was given to Rizz twice doing Mechanical Engineering (a 1 multiple) Nightfang - "Rocket Science: 10MN AB2 - gotten it twice too from the same agent. So yes, it's confirmed " Rizz = "640RP In mechanical engineering gave me my second Stiletto Frigate BP Original :) I gave up doing research missions after first few days and ignored him until today I received an email saying he had a breakthrough. Maybe I should sell this one ;)" thread here how's you statistics on that ______________________________________________ Hellmar > sorry for the attitude, playing a n00b character through the current state just left me a bit bitter dev chat: Mar 18, 2004 hellmar> "you lot are just so clever you have a good history for out smarting us :-S " dev chat: Feb 12, 2004
Zinjan	Posted - 2004.03.16 11:16:00 - [19] Edited by: Zinjan on 16/03/2004 11:21:06 Deleted
AtoningUnifex	Posted - 2004.03.16 11:43:00 - [20] Edited by: AtoningUnifex on 16/03/2004 11:45:12 Quote: OK lets get this straight: If your researching a weapons tech field your RP get multiplied by 2, no weapons have been released at all yet therefore those people researching weapons will not be at all likely to have gotten a bpo yet! The only thing you guys will get is modules which have a link to the weapons science skill e.g. Rockets and Afterburners, Smartbombs with appropriate damage types etc. Matches my experience... I started Plasma Physics research a week ago... (9th)... Last night I got a Small Plasma Smartbomb II bp... at 500RPs approx. ------------------------ Collector and flyer of starships
Arthur Guinness	Posted - 2004.03.16 14:16:00 - [21] How many ppl got offered a BP they didn't like and turned it down? How many rp did they have? It might look dodgy in the first, but guys keep in mind, we have nowhere near enough information to make any valid statements about it. You can't do statistics with incorrect/incomplete data.
Papa Smurf	Posted - 2004.03.16 14:26:00 - [22] A very significant proportion of the points in the lottery are owned by people with few RPs. Thus it's going to be a regular occurance that somebody with a low number of RPs is going to get some of the BPs. There are a very large number of researchers, alot of whom think that they are the king of the hill and thus should be getting a BP any day now. Few realize how small their kingdom is and how many their neighbors are. The "overflow bug" disabled the lottery entirely in a few fields until it was fixed. The BPs just waited until the bug was fixed to be dished out. About 6 BPs got queued up where the problem was at it's worst. It's been hotfixed and nothing's queued up now. a few points: 1. The number of participants in each lottery is huge. 2. Even the king-of-the hill is merely an ant in this huge swarm. A big ant, yes, but still an ant. 3. A very large number of points belong to people with low RPs, not to people with large RPs. 4. Only a small part of the winners are actually telling what BPs they got and how many RPs they had. 5. No field has dropped a large enough number of BPs to make it even remotely "gauranteed" that the king-of-any-hill would get a BP. Not that any gaurantee would ever be appropriate as this is a case of simple statistics. 6. High RP researchers often reject 'lousy blueprints', which thus often end up in the hands of low RP researchers. Nothing is heard from the former, but the latter boasts. 7. The number of BPs per field varies. 8. The number of RPs per field varies, and thus RP comparisons between fields are a moot point. So as far as I'm concerned these rumours make as much sense as people raving about the injustice of never having won in the State Lottery in spite of having played for years, but their friend won it after only 3 weeks. I will neither participate in any discussions about how the lottery must be broken because so-and-so-won-but-I-didn't, nor even bother reading them, as the fact of the matter is that no player has or ever will have sufficient data to participate in a meaningful discussion about this. That being said, I'll add some more logging and do some number crunching over the next few weeks to verify that all's well, which I'm quite sure it is from all I've seen so far.
Doppleganger	Posted - 2004.03.16 14:37:00 - [23] Edited by: Doppleganger on 16/03/2004 14:52:49 Quote: Edited by: IZON on 16/03/2004 08:08:37 Isn't that the whole point of lotteries? You have a 'statistical' chance of winning, not a 'guranteed' chance. Generally I aggree, it's odd that low RP's seem to be winning the lion share of BP's Has anyone with very high RP's actually tried 'restarting' their R&D research with the same agent (or even moving to a new agent)? - You might be pleasantly surprised. The whole point is there should be no reason to have to 'restart' their R&D research because from what I thought doing long term research should give me a higher chance of getting a bp. If I knew that restarting my research would give me a higher chance to get a bp dont you think most ppl would do it? We are just curious how random the bp system is after all I know it can happen but most likely lightning shouldn't strike twice and that sounds like what it has been doing more often then not. I personally dont have a prob not getting a bp yet cause I knew when I started this my chances of getting one were small, but 2 bpos for 1 person... and from the same agent.... its stories like this that make ppl question the system. :edit: removed the word 'broken' since this post started before papa smurf posted ....
Morkt Drakt	Posted - 2004.03.16 14:42:00 - [24] Edited by: Morkt Drak on 16/03/2004 14:48:43 Thanks Papa. The logging/data checking is what we really need to assuage any fears. This issue of repeat wins for low-RP researcher is the most difficult issue - given your data here and on IRC it seems evenless likely they should get repeat wins.
Temujin Destovai	Posted - 2004.03.16 14:52:00 - [25] Ya I agree.. its not that I find it weird how people with low amount of RP get blueprints.. thats rather logical.. what I find weird is that ive now heard of 8-10 people who have gotten 2 blueprints from the same agent with next to little or no RP. If this happens to one guy id think "wow colossal good luck" but when it turns into a regular occurence it does seem a bit strange. The Chronicles of Xanadu
Morkt Drakt	Posted - 2004.03.16 15:02:00 - [26] PapaSmurf is looking into a specific instance right now Temujin. He's good like that
Doppleganger	Posted - 2004.03.16 15:13:00 - [27] Actually hearing about stories from 8-10 ppl isnt that bad on a server of thousands.... it just for every story you hear from 1 person on the forum there probably another 100 or more ppl that dont post their same story on forum cause either they dont use the forums or just dont want to post it .... or maybe not. The Devs just have to be going nuts from us on the forums questioning everything they come up with.
Teeth	Posted - 2004.03.16 15:18:00 - [28] Edited by: Teeth on 16/03/2004 18:29:19 ok, clarified by papa smurf.
Athule Snanm	Posted - 2004.03.16 15:34:00 - [29] I posted this in general about lack of specialisation options for people, but as it mirrors what PS just said I'll repeat it here: "Every man and his dog has a research project. Proportionately most of the BPs go to those with only a few RPs. Whilst a research specialist may be able to increase their chances over an individual by at most about x12 (x2 for doing the missions, x6 for RPM at level 5) - which sounds impressive - in fact against the whole picture you're not changing your odds by that much. Specialists are simply out-competed by the huge numbers of low points projects. Whilst this helps out a few lucky soloists and small corps, a soloist or small corp that wants to actually rely on something more than chance in order to give themselves an edge is out of luck." Obviously this has now been confirmed as the game design - but is it a good thing? Are people training up science skills and getting RPM really only fooling themselves that they're changing a low chance of winning eventually to a high chance of winning? Personally I think that after a certain period (nothing too short, maybe 6 months or so) you should be extremely likely or certain to win something. The way things are currently though I'm not sure this is the case. It'd be very interesting to see estimated research times before you get to an 95% confidence level of winning - and how much training RPM and starting multiple projects changes that. I'm beginning to suspect that RPM doesn't significantly change your chances of winning as opposed to the huge amount of opposition, and that you have to wait a huge amount of time before starting to feel unlucky - certainly more than 3 months. _______________________________ Doomheim - EVE's only hygiene!
Viduus	Posted - 2004.03.16 15:38:00 - [30] Papa Smurf, you missed the point. It is not that Joe Bagadonuts won and I didn't. It's that Joe Bagadonuts won TWICE IN A ROW, and so did his cousin BareLee Jellyfilled, and his sister-in-law Tina Cookies.... It's a highly improbable scenario. I don't mind not winning the lottery - after all, it's pretty unlikely. What I mind is the same people winning over and over -- you yourself just said how unlikely it is that any 1 person will win --> now do the statistics on the likelyhood that the same people win twice, or 3 times... * Public Channel: NEA *

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