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New "lottery" winners spread the smell of 'wrongness'

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Morkt Drakt	Posted - 2004.03.16 00:25:00 - [1] With the continuation of multiple lottery winners with low RPs being now a fixed trait, dominating the majority of all BPs given out; and with it now becomming clear that multiple individuals are being "extraordinarily lucky" not just once, but twice, sometimes with the same agent for the same BP... isnt it about time that CCP actually came out and made a clear and open declaration about the spread of BPs amongst the R&D community? There is now a palpable stench surrounding the entire "Lottery", permeating substantial sections of the player base who, day by day, continue to lose faith in this supposedly fair and flawless system. If there is nothing wrong with the system, and this is simply a statistical glitch or accident of annecdotal evidence, then CCP should takes the steps now to asuage doubts and concerns that are endemic now in the player population. Even if its a pat on the head and a "Now now boy everything is fine"... but even better if CCP actually take time to double check their own figures and make trebily sure there is no***-up in the system. Everybody can believe in somebody with a tiny few RPs getting mnumentally lucky once... when they start getting monumentally lucky twice..and so do other "Lucky people" its less and less believeable all the time. We want some reassurance... not an inquest, not a trial, not a hanging party.. just some plain good customer relations and community management. Is the lottery working properly? Why does it seem that so many BPs are going to people with only a relatively low number of RPs? In plain english** what was the real nature of the "bug" recently noted as being fixed in the patchlog. - - - - - - NB: Thats one of my questions for this Wednesdays CSM.
Tsavong Lah	Posted - 2004.03.16 00:29:00 - [2] BUMP I got a useless bp after 2 days, carried on researching (now with 1900 RP) and haven't even been offered anything. I purposefully chose a non-ship fiend (high energy physics) so i'd have more chance of getting BPs. Now i hear about ppl getting bps after 1 or 2 days. It _really_ annoys me, and I'd like to see a dev reply explaining how it all works. I was under the impression "more RP=more lottery tickets". Selling Bustards @ 70-75m and Impels @ 100m. Contact me!
IZON	Posted - 2004.03.16 01:11:00 - [3] You know, if you had been one of the 'lucky' low RP winners would you even bother posting Morkt? "...master! there's a guy in the south village called IZON, he is a Ninja!"
Morkt Drakt	Posted - 2004.03.16 01:15:00 - [4] Quote: You know, if you had been one of the 'lucky' low RP winners would you even bother posting Morkt? We HAVE been one of the lucky low RP winners... same guy, twice.
Trevedian	Posted - 2004.03.16 01:20:00 - [5] I agree I am very bothered by CCP's secrecy about how this T2 BP drop process works... The whole T2 fiasco is getting very tedious. I spent an incredible amount of time running missions and traing R&D skills, for what? I have gotten nothing yet and most of what has dropped is junk. But guess what guys CCP still collects their monthly subscription fees from everyone... So what incentive does CCP have not to drag this out for as long as they can? I think if these ridiculous delays continue much longer EVE will suffer and subscriptions will get canceled. 1. So hurry up and get all the T1 BP's out there! 2. Start dropping T2 BP's that aren't junk! Sex0r > you're bounty turns me on.. you seem like the kind of amarrian to dominate me
Rinji	Posted - 2004.03.16 01:44:00 - [6] I too would like to see some general stats from CCP about average points of the winners vs what would be statisticly expected. I think it would do a lot to restore confidence that everything is working as it should. Vice Admiral Rinji Morisato Logistics Division Commanding Officer of Logistics Division
Viduus	Posted - 2004.03.16 02:12:00 - [7] I second this... I posted pretty much the same thing in 2 other threads 3 days ago. The lottery is as broken as the implant drops... or worse. * Public Channel: NEA *
Lucas De'Thal	Posted - 2004.03.16 02:34:00 - [8] I'd like to see some stats. Like out of the total bps released how many were awarded multiple times to a "single" individual. don't have to say what was released or to who. I just want to see how "random" these distributions really are. ______________________________________________ Hellmar > sorry for the attitude, playing a n00b character through the current state just left me a bit bitter dev chat: Mar 18, 2004 hellmar> "you lot are just so clever you have a good history for out smarting us :-S " dev chat: Feb 12, 2004
Agent Shield	Posted - 2004.03.16 03:32:00 - [9] A little concerned here, we had friends tell us to give T2 a try, stay around; thus we did. But with all our work so far, nothing has shown up, and I don't mind. What I do mind is the extremely odd occurance of multiple bp's issued to some players. Let's not forget the corp the other day who somehow insuates they know how to beat the system and can calculate when they will get their next bp. How does this system work? Is it borked? I would also like to know how the bp distribution is handled with regard to issuing and when. Is it Nanotech this week get a bp, then next week ElectronicEngineering, the following week Caldari Starship, etc...; thus if you chose HydromagneticPhysics; you have to wait until the other 11 weeks are done before your turn; and if you missed a bp in Nanotech; you have to wait until each other skillset has been given one. How does CCP determine what item is given out and when? Is it computer generated, at the will of CCP, or some other method? We all know it was a lottery, but when you start seeing abnormalities that don't really sit well with statistical probability; you have to wonder if there isn't something really wrong with this picture. We have been chasing the carrot since Castor; this rabbit is running out of energy physics. Agent Shield
Golgrath	Posted - 2004.03.16 05:46:00 - [10] I know it's statistically possible for all the BPs go to researchers with very few points but it does makes you wonder when all you see is posts about a BP gotten @ 86 RPs and no posts about RP gotten @ ~20k points.
Ertai Vodalion	Posted - 2004.03.16 07:47:00 - [11] just to get some oil into the fire: We got 4 Research Projects running in our Corporation - 3 of them started in the week Castor went live - the 4th Project started at the end of January. The 4th Project turned into success 2 weeks after it has been started - the pilot then started another project - same skill same agent - and was awarded the same BP again 2 days later ... so within 3 weeks of research 2 BPOs for one Pilot - within 3 Months no BPO for the other 3 Players ... collosal bad luck anyone ??
IZON	Posted - 2004.03.16 08:07:00 - [12] Edited by: IZON on 16/03/2004 08:08:37 Isn't that the whole point of lotteries? You have a 'statistical' chance of winning, not a 'guranteed' chance. Generally I aggree, it's odd that low RP's seem to be winning the lion share of BP's Has anyone with very high RP's actually tried 'restarting' their R&D research with the same agent (or even moving to a new agent)? - You might be pleasantly surprised. "...master! there's a guy in the south village called IZON, he is a Ninja!"
Lucas De'Thal	Posted - 2004.03.16 08:50:00 - [13] Quote: Edited by: IZON on 16/03/2004 08:08:37 Isn't that the whole point of lotteries? You have a 'statistical' chance of winning, not a 'guranteed' chance. Generally I aggree, it's odd that low RP's seem to be winning the lion share of BP's Has anyone with very high RP's actually tried 'restarting' their R&D research with the same agent (or even moving to a new agent)? - You might be pleasantly surprised. i can understand statistical chance, but when several people, keep getting the same bp or multiple bp's..... then something tells me the "coding" is not generating enough random choices or is not randoming selecting a varied enough range from the amount of RP's in the pool. EX. player X gets an elite frigate bp with total 500k RP's collected over every player researching in that pool. player X then starts researching right away and again gets an elite frigate. now, you figure out the chances of that happening with more than 1 person, which it has. I can count 5 people on these boards who have gotten multiple bp's from the same research. That's not random my friend. That's a broken system. ______________________________________________ Hellmar > sorry for the attitude, playing a n00b character through the current state just left me a bit bitter dev chat: Mar 18, 2004 hellmar> "you lot are just so clever you have a good history for out smarting us :-S " dev chat: Feb 12, 2004
Drutort	Posted - 2004.03.16 09:16:00 - [14] the sad thing is we will probably never get to know that info, and probably never know what the real issues/bugs were. support Idea: QuickInfo an alternative to ShowInfo my MoBlog
Galban Hunter	Posted - 2004.03.16 09:27:00 - [15] OK lets get this straight: If your researching a starship project your RP get multiplied by 3, so these people will have very high RP totals and as only 2 interceptors (per starships skill) has been released onto the market (i do not know how many bpo's but i'd suspect very low) you are likely to have a very small chance at gaining a ship bpo! Many people chose to research a starship field thinking they would immediately get a bpo within say 10k points... don't be naive! If your researching a weapons tech field your RP get multiplied by 2, no weapons have been released at all yet therefore those people researching weapons will not be at all likely to have gotten a bpo yet! The only thing you guys will get is modules which have a link to the weapons science skill e.g. Rockets and Afterburners, Smartbombs with appropriate damage types etc. If your researching anything else your RP is multiplied by 1 meaning what you see is what you get! A lot of 'useless junk' has already been released and now the duplicates and triplicates etc. are being released, this means you will have a high chance of getting one of these bpo's. And many people do get them, the majority of people on the forum posting that they have got such and such bpo have spent around a month to two months researching, the rest who get a bpo after >99RP have had trememdous luck (not to mention one right after the other!) However most of these bpo's are so called 'junk' as no-one uses them at all. There are more than 8 copies of each of these blueprints out i can assume, giving a good market. Summary over I would also like to see some statistics on the bp drop system and the average etc for whatever. -------------------------------------------- [2005.02.08 13:58:16] Your Mega Beam Laser II perfectly strikes Sansha's Beast, wrecking for 709.6 damage.
Gariuys	Posted - 2004.03.16 09:59:00 - [16] Junk? junk, do you even keep track of what's been released, cause there are some not often used bps in there but most of them are used, and used often. And why in heavens name do people keep on insisting there is nothing wrong when everything we hear and see points in the direction that there is something mayorly wrong. The only "proof" that the system is working as intended is vague assumptions and fictional numbers. For me there is no problem yet, the bps I'm researching for have yet to be released, but people that get a couple of tech2 bps with a couple 100 of RP is sickening. And if it is indeed the result of the system working proper that system should get another look at. ~{When evil and strange get together anything is possible}~ A tool is only useless when you don't know how to use it. - ActiveX The grass is always greener on the other side. - JoCool
Temujin Destovai	Posted - 2004.03.16 10:05:00 - [17] I have to agree. Im starting to lose count of how many times the same person has gotten a second blueprint right after his first with next to no points while those with high amounts are getting nothing. Although it might be plausible for people with nearly no points to get blueprints it is absurd to consider that 7-8 people get "lucky" twice against astronomical odds, while others go out empty. CCP looking at their code or method for releasing these would really be great since something is obviously not so random. The Chronicles of Xanadu
Lucas De'Thal	Posted - 2004.03.16 10:06:00 - [18] Edited by: Lucas De'Thal on 16/03/2004 10:10:58 Quote: OK lets get this straight: If your researching a starship project your RP get multiplied by 3, so these people will have very high RP totals and as only 2 interceptors (per starships skill) has been released onto the market (i do not know how many bpo's but i'd suspect very low) you are likely to have a very small chance at gaining a ship bpo! Many people chose to research a starship field thinking they would immediately get a bpo within say 10k points... don't be naive! If your researching a weapons tech field your RP get multiplied by 2, no weapons have been released at all yet therefore those people researching weapons will not be at all likely to have gotten a bpo yet! The only thing you guys will get is modules which have a link to the weapons science skill e.g. Rockets and Afterburners, Smartbombs with appropriate damage types etc. If your researching anything else your RP is multiplied by 1 meaning what you see is what you get! A lot of 'useless junk' has already been released and now the duplicates and triplicates etc. are being released, this means you will have a high chance of getting one of these bpo's. And many people do get them, the majority of people on the forum posting that they have got such and such bpo have spent around a month to two months researching, the rest who get a bpo after >99RP have had trememdous luck (not to mention one right after the other!) However most of these bpo's are so called 'junk' as no-one uses them at all. There are more than 8 copies of each of these blueprints out i can assume, giving a good market. Summary over The Stilleto Elite frigate bp was given to Rizz twice doing Mechanical Engineering (a 1 multiple) Nightfang - "Rocket Science: 10MN AB2 - gotten it twice too from the same agent. So yes, it's confirmed " Rizz = "640RP In mechanical engineering gave me my second Stiletto Frigate BP Original :) I gave up doing research missions after first few days and ignored him until today I received an email saying he had a breakthrough. Maybe I should sell this one ;)" thread here how's you statistics on that ______________________________________________ Hellmar > sorry for the attitude, playing a n00b character through the current state just left me a bit bitter dev chat: Mar 18, 2004 hellmar> "you lot are just so clever you have a good history for out smarting us :-S " dev chat: Feb 12, 2004
Zinjan	Posted - 2004.03.16 11:16:00 - [19] Edited by: Zinjan on 16/03/2004 11:21:06 Deleted
AtoningUnifex	Posted - 2004.03.16 11:43:00 - [20] Edited by: AtoningUnifex on 16/03/2004 11:45:12 Quote: OK lets get this straight: If your researching a weapons tech field your RP get multiplied by 2, no weapons have been released at all yet therefore those people researching weapons will not be at all likely to have gotten a bpo yet! The only thing you guys will get is modules which have a link to the weapons science skill e.g. Rockets and Afterburners, Smartbombs with appropriate damage types etc. Matches my experience... I started Plasma Physics research a week ago... (9th)... Last night I got a Small Plasma Smartbomb II bp... at 500RPs approx. ------------------------ Collector and flyer of starships
Arthur Guinness	Posted - 2004.03.16 14:16:00 - [21] How many ppl got offered a BP they didn't like and turned it down? How many rp did they have? It might look dodgy in the first, but guys keep in mind, we have nowhere near enough information to make any valid statements about it. You can't do statistics with incorrect/incomplete data.
Papa Smurf	Posted - 2004.03.16 14:26:00 - [22] A very significant proportion of the points in the lottery are owned by people with few RPs. Thus it's going to be a regular occurance that somebody with a low number of RPs is going to get some of the BPs. There are a very large number of researchers, alot of whom think that they are the king of the hill and thus should be getting a BP any day now. Few realize how small their kingdom is and how many their neighbors are. The "overflow bug" disabled the lottery entirely in a few fields until it was fixed. The BPs just waited until the bug was fixed to be dished out. About 6 BPs got queued up where the problem was at it's worst. It's been hotfixed and nothing's queued up now. a few points: 1. The number of participants in each lottery is huge. 2. Even the king-of-the hill is merely an ant in this huge swarm. A big ant, yes, but still an ant. 3. A very large number of points belong to people with low RPs, not to people with large RPs. 4. Only a small part of the winners are actually telling what BPs they got and how many RPs they had. 5. No field has dropped a large enough number of BPs to make it even remotely "gauranteed" that the king-of-any-hill would get a BP. Not that any gaurantee would ever be appropriate as this is a case of simple statistics. 6. High RP researchers often reject 'lousy blueprints', which thus often end up in the hands of low RP researchers. Nothing is heard from the former, but the latter boasts. 7. The number of BPs per field varies. 8. The number of RPs per field varies, and thus RP comparisons between fields are a moot point. So as far as I'm concerned these rumours make as much sense as people raving about the injustice of never having won in the State Lottery in spite of having played for years, but their friend won it after only 3 weeks. I will neither participate in any discussions about how the lottery must be broken because so-and-so-won-but-I-didn't, nor even bother reading them, as the fact of the matter is that no player has or ever will have sufficient data to participate in a meaningful discussion about this. That being said, I'll add some more logging and do some number crunching over the next few weeks to verify that all's well, which I'm quite sure it is from all I've seen so far.
Doppleganger	Posted - 2004.03.16 14:37:00 - [23] Edited by: Doppleganger on 16/03/2004 14:52:49 Quote: Edited by: IZON on 16/03/2004 08:08:37 Isn't that the whole point of lotteries? You have a 'statistical' chance of winning, not a 'guranteed' chance. Generally I aggree, it's odd that low RP's seem to be winning the lion share of BP's Has anyone with very high RP's actually tried 'restarting' their R&D research with the same agent (or even moving to a new agent)? - You might be pleasantly surprised. The whole point is there should be no reason to have to 'restart' their R&D research because from what I thought doing long term research should give me a higher chance of getting a bp. If I knew that restarting my research would give me a higher chance to get a bp dont you think most ppl would do it? We are just curious how random the bp system is after all I know it can happen but most likely lightning shouldn't strike twice and that sounds like what it has been doing more often then not. I personally dont have a prob not getting a bp yet cause I knew when I started this my chances of getting one were small, but 2 bpos for 1 person... and from the same agent.... its stories like this that make ppl question the system. :edit: removed the word 'broken' since this post started before papa smurf posted ....
Morkt Drakt	Posted - 2004.03.16 14:42:00 - [24] Edited by: Morkt Drak on 16/03/2004 14:48:43 Thanks Papa. The logging/data checking is what we really need to assuage any fears. This issue of repeat wins for low-RP researcher is the most difficult issue - given your data here and on IRC it seems evenless likely they should get repeat wins.
Temujin Destovai	Posted - 2004.03.16 14:52:00 - [25] Ya I agree.. its not that I find it weird how people with low amount of RP get blueprints.. thats rather logical.. what I find weird is that ive now heard of 8-10 people who have gotten 2 blueprints from the same agent with next to little or no RP. If this happens to one guy id think "wow colossal good luck" but when it turns into a regular occurence it does seem a bit strange. The Chronicles of Xanadu
Morkt Drakt	Posted - 2004.03.16 15:02:00 - [26] PapaSmurf is looking into a specific instance right now Temujin. He's good like that
Doppleganger	Posted - 2004.03.16 15:13:00 - [27] Actually hearing about stories from 8-10 ppl isnt that bad on a server of thousands.... it just for every story you hear from 1 person on the forum there probably another 100 or more ppl that dont post their same story on forum cause either they dont use the forums or just dont want to post it .... or maybe not. The Devs just have to be going nuts from us on the forums questioning everything they come up with.
Teeth	Posted - 2004.03.16 15:18:00 - [28] Edited by: Teeth on 16/03/2004 18:29:19 ok, clarified by papa smurf.
Athule Snanm	Posted - 2004.03.16 15:34:00 - [29] I posted this in general about lack of specialisation options for people, but as it mirrors what PS just said I'll repeat it here: "Every man and his dog has a research project. Proportionately most of the BPs go to those with only a few RPs. Whilst a research specialist may be able to increase their chances over an individual by at most about x12 (x2 for doing the missions, x6 for RPM at level 5) - which sounds impressive - in fact against the whole picture you're not changing your odds by that much. Specialists are simply out-competed by the huge numbers of low points projects. Whilst this helps out a few lucky soloists and small corps, a soloist or small corp that wants to actually rely on something more than chance in order to give themselves an edge is out of luck." Obviously this has now been confirmed as the game design - but is it a good thing? Are people training up science skills and getting RPM really only fooling themselves that they're changing a low chance of winning eventually to a high chance of winning? Personally I think that after a certain period (nothing too short, maybe 6 months or so) you should be extremely likely or certain to win something. The way things are currently though I'm not sure this is the case. It'd be very interesting to see estimated research times before you get to an 95% confidence level of winning - and how much training RPM and starting multiple projects changes that. I'm beginning to suspect that RPM doesn't significantly change your chances of winning as opposed to the huge amount of opposition, and that you have to wait a huge amount of time before starting to feel unlucky - certainly more than 3 months. _______________________________ Doomheim - EVE's only hygiene!
Viduus	Posted - 2004.03.16 15:38:00 - [30] Papa Smurf, you missed the point. It is not that Joe Bagadonuts won and I didn't. It's that Joe Bagadonuts won TWICE IN A ROW, and so did his cousin BareLee Jellyfilled, and his sister-in-law Tina Cookies.... It's a highly improbable scenario. I don't mind not winning the lottery - after all, it's pretty unlikely. What I mind is the same people winning over and over -- you yourself just said how unlikely it is that any 1 person will win --> now do the statistics on the likelyhood that the same people win twice, or 3 times... * Public Channel: NEA *
Morkt Drakt	Posted - 2004.03.16 15:55:00 - [31] Quote: Papa Smurf, you missed the point. It is not that Joe Bagadonuts won and I didn't. It's that Joe Bagadonuts won TWICE IN A ROW, and so did his cousin BareLee Jellyfilled, and his sister-in-law Tina Cookies.... It's a highly improbable scenario. That's what he is looking into.
Harisdrop	Posted - 2004.03.16 16:41:00 - [32] The fact is, this is the Lottery that has always been. It was debated before and it is debated now. Nothing has changed. What I find comical is if you choose not to accept a BPo Tech II you really lost. Your pain is not felt. You only make yourself look foolish because you did not "win". The choice is yours if you find a certain BPo is not worthy of you. The more RP you have does not mean you are more likely to get a BPo it was stated before the release and it has been stated again. I hope you all look at yourselves and wish you never posted here. I would not doubt more delete thier posts!!!! When will those "elite" players realize that its a game!!!! -------------------------- Garsh ma it soo cool killing people in there space thingies
SkyQuake	Posted - 2004.03.16 16:56:00 - [33] And second. Can we expect tech3 bps to be handed out in the same way? Or will people (that try focusing on something in this game) with RPM and a ton of wasted skillpoints become obsolete??? SkyQuake
Lucas De'Thal	Posted - 2004.03.16 17:00:00 - [34] Quote: The fact is, this is the Lottery that has always been. It was debated before and it is debated now. Nothing has changed. What I find comical is if you choose not to accept a BPo Tech II you really lost. Your pain is not felt. You only make yourself look foolish because you did not "win". The choice is yours if you find a certain BPo is not worthy of you. The more RP you have does not mean you are more likely to get a BPo it was stated before the release and it has been stated again. I hope you all look at yourselves and wish you never posted here. I would not doubt more delete thier posts!!!! When will those "elite" players realize that its a game!!!! look at the post right above your's and you'll see what us "elite" players are really talking about. do you really think people were refusing "elite frigate bps", "10MN afterburner bps", "armor repair bps", "med. shield booster bps" to the point where the bp eventually round robined it's way back to people who had already gotten the exact same bp's before??? i think you need to delte your post before YOU embarass yourself too much ______________________________________________ Hellmar > sorry for the attitude, playing a n00b character through the current state just left me a bit bitter dev chat: Mar 18, 2004 hellmar> "you lot are just so clever you have a good history for out smarting us :-S " dev chat: Feb 12, 2004
Harisdrop	Posted - 2004.03.16 18:39:00 - [35] Quote: 6. High RP researchers often reject 'lousy blueprints', which thus often end up in the hands of low RP researchers. Nothing is heard from the former, but the latter boasts. OK where do I go wrong on this statement. When BPo tech II sell for 300 million isk for an interceptor. I sold 20 run BPC of Medium Armor repairer II for upto 20 million isk and as low as 500k isk. My point is the value is precieved by the whole. If one has a choice to accept an offered bp what does he do. He checks how much its worth, looks for a tech I bp, values what its been sold for before, trys to sell it on the market before accepting it........ The issue is not if you got a BP offer its if its the one you want. The offer for BP has many factors which was stated before Castor came out. If you dont know those then you should find out what gets a BP to a certain field or npc Corp. -------------------------- Garsh ma it soo cool killing people in there space thingies
Lurk	Posted - 2004.03.16 18:56:00 - [36] I got a BP with about 300 RP and was offered (but declined) one lately at 6000 RP, so i think there is no bug, it's just random. Field is High Energy Physics.
Morkt Drakt	Posted - 2004.03.16 19:24:00 - [37] Edited by: Morkt Drak on 16/03/2004 19:42:40 Quote: I hope you all look at yourselves and wish you never posted here. I would not doubt more delete thier posts!!!! When will those "elite" players realize that its a game!!!! As a result of this, and IRC conversations, PapaSmurf is investigating certain aspects, specifically the incidents of "double wins". Get some facts before trying to preach. Quote: The more RP you have does not mean you are more likely to get a BPo. Actually that is exactly what it does mean. The more RPs you have the higher the chance of you getting a BPO. I really think you ought to go away and consider your own comments before making a further ass of yourself. Highest R&D field = 5396681 points Highest individual RP = 41232 You should be able to apply simple math to work out the differences between that chance he will win and a guy with 1RP - it isn't rocket science afterall. What you might not be able to work out, as you have shown no willingness to read the posts in this thread that discuss it, is that the same "1 point guy" winning twice in a row isn't just highly unlikely but unbelieveably, stupidly, no-way-jose, high. And PS is agreeable enough on that point to specifically investigate it. I think the likelyhood of any of US wanting to delete our posts given the above, is next to zero. You, on the other hand, have free choice to do so at your leisure...and far more reason.
Harisdrop	Posted - 2004.03.16 19:56:00 - [38] Quote: 5. No field has dropped a large enough number of BPs to make it even remotely "gauranteed" that the king-of-any-hill would get a BP. Not that any gaurantee would ever be appropriate as this is a case of simple statistics. Stop trying to read into more than it has been said. Big ants get squashed first. -------------------------- Garsh ma it soo cool killing people in there space thingies
Harisdrop	Posted - 2004.03.16 20:00:00 - [39] Quote: What you might not be able to work out, as you have shown no willingness to read the posts in this thread that discuss it, is that the same "1 point guy" winning twice in a row isn't just highly unlikely but unbelieveably, stupidly, no-way-jose, high. I would like to point out it depends on your NPC corp who get the BP. No one would actually tell you who that is cause we dont want you to get them. I like both my Medium Armor Repairer II and Reactive Plating II -------------------------- Garsh ma it soo cool killing people in there space thingies
Morkt Drakt	Posted - 2004.03.16 20:03:00 - [40] Do you ever, actually, read what people post.. or do you just look at it and chose to see just the bits you want to?
Agent Shield	Posted - 2004.03.16 20:06:00 - [41] Quote: Highest R&D field = 5396681 points Highest individual RP = 41232 Where does this data come from? Is there a post/page where this information is kept up to date on the different research fields? Is there a page/post that describes in full how the lottery actually takes place and when? Agent Shield
Harisdrop	Posted - 2004.03.16 20:11:00 - [42] Complaining does not get you a BP its those that work the system. If your npc Corp has not given out the latest batch of BPo do you think its likely you will get a BPo in that corp. Those that are playing for the long haul will get thier rewards if they soo please. I dont know if I can get you to understand its not about a system distribution but a NPC corp distribution. Papa stated that its works as planned. Making justification on why it does not, does not mean your right. -------------------------- Garsh ma it soo cool killing people in there space thingies
Harisdrop	Posted - 2004.03.16 20:13:00 - [43] Quote: Highest R&D field = 5396681 points Highest individual RP = 41232 Is 0.0076 chance you win. -------------------------- Garsh ma it soo cool killing people in there space thingies
Morkt Drakt	Posted - 2004.03.16 20:23:00 - [44] Edited by: Morkt Drak on 16/03/2004 20:25:29 Quote: Complaining does not get you a BP its those that work the system. If your npc Corp has not given out the latest batch of BPo do you think its likely you will get a BPo in that corp. Those that are playing for the long haul will get thier rewards if they soo please. I dont know if I can get you to understand its not about a system distribution but a NPC corp distribution. Papa stated that its works as planned. Making justification on why it does not, does not mean your right. Look, Im trying to be nice about this - but i will be blunt. You are clueless and you don't even have the courtesy to read what people are writing. I have six tech 2 BPs - three times more than yours and all a damn sight more useful. Im not complaigning you nit, Im trying to see if something is broken. Papa, on IRC is investigating whether certian aspects are working properly. That comversation and that information comes from PapaSmurf following this thread and his post herein. Quote: Is 0.0076 chance you win. Well done - now what is it for a person with 1 RP? You stated CLEARLY that more RPs does not mean a higher chance to win. You are wrong. FACT. Quote: If your npc Corp has not given out the latest batch of BPo do you think its likely you will get a BPo in that corp. You are now claiming your divine choice of NPC Corp is why you have the almightily huge number of 2 BPs. Well, hate to break it to you but the truth of that is already in the public domain. Im not even going to bother telling you because you don't listen. Let me repeat this one more time: PapSmurf is looking into the issue of repeat-winners in close succession within the same agent. Why? I don't know... Harisdrop - you tell me why he is doing that eh? Let me give you a clue though - it has lots to do with people asking questions to ensure a system is working as intended, and nothing to do with other people running about spweing rubbish about things they don't have a clue about. WOrk it out for yourself.. but please stop embarassing yourself with all these claims of yours. Its really not helpful, its not what we are discussing and you weren't even party to most of it.
Wraeththu	Posted - 2004.03.16 20:54:00 - [45] Quote: Look, Im trying to be nice about this - but i will be blunt. You are clueless and you don't even have the courtesy to read what people are writing. Don't sweat it Morkt. The rest of us understand what you're saying, and appreciate your intentions, post, and effort. -- TomB: End the speed-race. 1 propulsion mod allowed, make turrets affect ship attributes like +speed/+ab speed +agil for progressivly smaller/lighter turrets, -speed/-ab speed -agil for long-range.
Doppleganger	Posted - 2004.03.16 22:20:00 - [46] Quote: Don't sweat it Morkt. The rest of us understand what you're saying, and appreciate your intentions, post, and effort. Nods Your always make perfect sense to me Morkt even if I'm argueing against you.
Athule Snanm	Posted - 2004.03.16 22:21:00 - [47] Quote: Quote: Is 0.0076 chance you win. Well done - now what is it for a person with 1 RP? You stated CLEARLY that more RPs does not mean a higher chance to win. You are wrong. FACT. The 0.0076 (equivalent to 0.76% chance) which someone worked out is for the person in that field with the most RPs. Someone simply idling their agent (but training up the same science skills) will have about half the RPs, thus the someone who has (most probably) done agent missions for that agent every day since before Christmas has done it for an extra 0.38% chance of getting a BP. I don't know about you, but it may be higher, but I wouldn't call it significantly higher...even compared to someone with just the bare minimum skills who's idling the agent his/her chances of winning aren't exactly significantly different - it's all within a percentage point. The more I think about it the more I think that specialising in science doesn't really exist in any real sense yet. _______________________________ Doomheim - EVE's only hygiene!
Morkt Drakt	Posted - 2004.03.16 22:27:00 - [48] Edited by: Morkt Drak on 16/03/2004 22:33:10 Quote: I don't know about you, but it may be higher, but I wouldn't call it significantly higher...even compared to someone with just the bare minimum skills who's idling the agent his/her chances of winning aren't exactly significantly different - it's all within a percentage point. My math isnt exactly crash hot but didnt they double their chances.. and with RPM even more so... and compared to someone with 35 RPs its a far far higher chance. Edit - btw the R&D missions are actually 1.3/day apparently, so you can do better than double your points.
Athule Snanm	Posted - 2004.03.16 23:03:00 - [49] Twice not much, is still not much - it's like buying (real) lottery tickets, buy 1000 doesn't significantly increase your chances of winning the jackpot, despite the fact that your chances are about 1000x greater. _______________________________ Doomheim - EVE's only hygiene!
Morkt Drakt	Posted - 2004.03.16 23:39:00 - [50] The point is it does generate a better chance. Harisdrop stated there was no better chance. He was wrong. - - Players can chose to increase their chances or not. What people want to know is if the system is working as intended. Whether or not it is a good system remains, now, largely irrelevant as we are stuck with it. As pointed out to both IZON and Harisdrop I'm hardly whinging at the outcome; having a fistful of Tech2 myself. I remain exasberated by people who insist on trying to sow divisiveness or expose imaginary alterior motives behind any questioning. Its childish. 41,000 RPs set against 1 RP is a big difference in chances. If the 1 RP guy wins twice in a row I wonder how and why. It doesn't require me to ask why the 41k guy hasn't won anything. Is this so difficult to comprehend?
Turin	Posted - 2004.03.16 23:50:00 - [51] Quote: So as far as I'm concerned these rumours make as much sense as people raving about the injustice of never having won in the State Lottery in spite of having played for years, but their friend won it after only 3 weeks. The problem ISNT my friend who won the lottory after playing 3 weeks. Its that he won the lotto TWICE in 3 weeks.
IZON	Posted - 2004.03.17 00:53:00 - [52] Edited by: IZON on 17/03/2004 00:58:17 We shouldn't really be comparing it to a lottery if we can't accept that Joe Bloggs can win it twice with two tickets in two weeks, and Joe Smith never wins after a hundreds of tickets in two years (this happens in RL). As pointed out by Papa Smurf, the Big Ant is offset by the mass of Smaller Ants (the Smaller Ants collectively forming the bigger ant). "...master! there's a guy in the south village called IZON, he is a Ninja!"
Morkt Drakt	Posted - 2004.03.17 01:26:00 - [53] Edited by: Morkt Drak on 17/03/2004 01:29:16 Quote: Edited by: IZON on 17/03/2004 00:58:17 We shouldn't really be comparing it to a lottery if we can't accept that Joe Bloggs can win it twice with two tickets in two weeks, and Joe Smith never wins after a hundreds of tickets in two years (this happens in RL). As pointed out by Papa Smurf, the Big Ant is offset by the mass of Smaller Ants (the Smaller Ants collectively forming the bigger ant). As stated by papasmurf on IRC, concerning the double wins "I'll investigate that seperately." I find it odd he isn't certain and will check whilst you are absolute in your total belief. Then again, given your first reply to this thread, it doesn't really surprise me.
GardenerOfEden	Posted - 2004.03.17 01:35:00 - [54] If my memory serves me correctly then one of the ideas that was discussed with R&D agents when they were originally proposed was a requirement that the character have the skill pre-requisites for the lottery item in order to be able to "win" it. This could be rationalised on the basis that you would need to know something about using the item in order to invent it. The game balance aspect was that it countered research alt characters doing better than main characters. I had thought that this was not implemented - the alt research character aspect being countered by the benefit of doing research missions, which main characters are better suited for, and because of the outcry from players who would be hard done by in having previously diverted training time to alt researchers. However, if it was implemented, even if partially (say by only needing primary skill level - 1), then it would explain why more established characters with more skill points, such as Morkt Drak, are doing better in the lotteries even though they don't necessarily have a lot of research points. Another matter that would be worth checking is the algorithm for selecting the winning ticket - as all computer programmers know, random numbers are really only pseudo-random and it might be flawed if it relies on something like an elapsed time based random seed with the regular reboot of the servers etc. Unfortunately Papa Smurf never responds directly to any of my posts on these forums so we may never know EVE is a massive social experiment of human interaction facilitated by computer technology
Morkt Drakt	Posted - 2004.03.17 01:42:00 - [55] From Papas input on IRC today it became clear that the lottery is incredibly simple: They lump together every single RP for a given skill... asign a BP to it (BP must require that skill) and draw out a winning ticket. Thats it. NPC Agent, NPC Corp, knowledge of skills, level of agents etc aren't a factor, nor is the backstory designation for BPs, thus you don't need to be with a LaiDai R&D agent to get the "LaiDai" type ships, its not relevant.
Lucas De'Thal	Posted - 2004.03.17 02:34:00 - [56] Quote: Another matter that would be worth checking is the algorithm for selecting the winning ticket - as all computer programmers know, random numbers are really only pseudo-random and it might be flawed if it relies on something like an elapsed time based random seed with the regular reboot of the servers etc. you've touched on what I've been posting about and trying to get attention to for the past couple of days. That the coding to "randomize" the draws seem to have a flaw if people are able to win double, even triple bp's. now as Morkt has said that the system is so simple in choosing who gets what, yet again confirms my suspicion that not much was put into the "randomizing" selection code, which if not done properly would not really randomize anything very often....a computer has no concept of random if you don't properly code it, you will get a pattern. i might not make sense, but this got me worked up. ______________________________________________ Hellmar > sorry for the attitude, playing a n00b character through the current state just left me a bit bitter dev chat: Mar 18, 2004 hellmar> "you lot are just so clever you have a good history for out smarting us :-S " dev chat: Feb 12, 2004
Yukka Detac	Posted - 2004.03.17 03:13:00 - [57] It is abundantly clear that only low skill points receive a BP. Here's a suggestion: Cancel your research and start over. This will improve your chances of getting a Tech II BP. If you haven't received your BP by 200 RP, cancel your research and try again. Repeat until you receive your BP. Note: This is especially relevant if you are researching Quantum Physics.
Bigby	Posted - 2004.03.17 07:44:00 - [58] Quote: It is abundantly clear that only low skill points receive a BP. Here's a suggestion: Cancel your research and start over. This will improve your chances of getting a Tech II BP. If you haven't received your BP by 200 RP, cancel your research and try again. Repeat until you receive your BP. Note: This is especially relevant if you are researching Quantum Physics. Let me guess. You're researching quantum physics, right? Nice troll
IZON	Posted - 2004.03.17 08:13:00 - [59] Edited by: IZON on 17/03/2004 08:54:31 Quote: Edited by: Morkt Drak on 17/03/2004 01:29:16 Quote: Edited by: IZON on 17/03/2004 00:58:17 We shouldn't really be comparing it to a lottery if we can't accept that Joe Bloggs can win it twice with two tickets in two weeks, and Joe Smith never wins after a hundreds of tickets in two years (this happens in RL). As pointed out by Papa Smurf, the Big Ant is offset by the mass of Smaller Ants (the Smaller Ants collectively forming the bigger ant). As stated by papasmurf on IRC, concerning the double wins "I'll investigate that seperately." I find it odd he isn't certain and will check whilst you are absolute in your total belief. Then again, given your first reply to this thread, it doesn't really surprise me. Look Morkt, not everyone was privvy to that IRC chat, so forgive us if you can. And for the love of God stop treating all replies in this thread as though they are personal attacks. Quote: '...whilst you are absolute in your total belief' ...? It's not what you say, it's the condescending diarrhoea that accompanies it that is often unnecessary. Disagreeing is one thing, being offensive with your disagreement detracts your arguments and puts it closer to the realm simple flaming. Lighten up, we're all here for the game. "...master! there's a guy in the south village called IZON, he is a Ninja!"
voogru	Posted - 2004.03.17 09:08:00 - [60] I too have major doubts about the system. I've been doing gallente ship research for a good... let me think... 2 and a half months, I have done 70 to 75% of the missions the agent thrown at me, invested months into training research skills just so I could USE the agent, and as a dedicated researcher, I cant do much in eve, but wait, and frankly waiting with nothing to do is quite, how can I say this... boring. At the time of this post, I have around 16,000 - 17,000 "research points", which has taken me a fair time to obtain, yet I watch, day by day as other people get blueprints, while I just sit here throwing my time, and my money into a game that gives me nothing worth staying for. Why do I stay in eve? Whats here to keep me from going to another game? I'm obviously not able to do anything, I cant do combat, nope, dont have the skills, I can do agent missions, but I already done 2000+ of those and they arent much fun, I could do mining, but I have better things to do, like watch paint dry and count sand. And I highly doubt the system is "flawless", just look at everything in eve, theres bugs, like any piece of software, you can never get a bug free system, and for a game as complex as eve, who knows how many bugs still exist. But, I'd really like to know, what type of game do you play for months on end, and never a reward? I understand the fact that research is random and people spend thier entire lives getting somewhere, but CCP, your forgetting something. this is a game, which shares some things of life, but shouldnt share everything. If the game is just as boring as real life, then whats the point of playing? ------- Your 425mm Prototype I Gauss Gun perfectly strikes Guardian Enforcer, wrecking for 827.3 damage.
Grey Area	Posted - 2004.03.17 10:55:00 - [61] I don't think it was ever intended that research missions become a way of life for players. In general they COST money rather than MAKE it, and any fool can see that regardless of whether or not the lottery is truly random or slightly skewed, the chances of getting a Tech 2 BP are very small indeed. That applies even more if you are fussy and waiting for a "juicy" Tech 2 BP, not just a Tech 2 toilet paper holder. I run missions in EVE...I deliberately switched to a research corp, and moreover, one who had a reasonable quality research agent in the same system as a reasonable quality "normal" agent. This means in general I can do every research mission offered (assuming I play every day, which has not been the case recently) without taking out time to make X jumps to the agent's system. If NOT getting a guaranteed BP from the research agent is a problem for you, then maybe you should consider doing something else instead, or making research a "sideline" as I have done, rather than trying to get the game changed to work as YOU would wish it. This does NOT mean that if the lottery systems is being exploited (by restarting research frequently for example) that it should not be investigated. I trust Papa Smurf on this 100%, as he's one of the few (only?) Devs who bothers to communicate with players on the Forums. If there's something dodgy with the system, he will say so - but for heaven's sake give the bloke a chance - I'm sure it's a lot of data to trawl through, and I'm sure it's not the ONLY job he has to do, nor yet the most important. ========================================= * I'm ALLOWED to cheat. I'm a STARSHIP. * =========================================
Morkt Drakt	Posted - 2004.03.17 12:33:00 - [62] Edited by: Morkt Drak on 17/03/2004 12:50:51 You know what you should do IZON? Go read your first post in this thread, then go read the forum-rules definition of trolling. Apply your own latest rant to it, pour yourself some milk, then go cry into it. Your only contribution to this thread, from start to finish, has been deliberate trolling. Opps - forgot - no it wasn't only trolling: you gave hundreds of people a chuckle in how badly you were caught out whilst trolling.. musn't forget that.
Celt Eireson	Posted - 2004.03.17 12:47:00 - [63] Hmmmm just in reply to a comment someone made - it isn't just those with small numbers of RPs that get the BPs. My first tech 2 bp was gotten at about 4500 rps in mechanical engineering, which if a fair amount for a non-bonus skill. My 2nd bp though was gotten at a massive 86 rps in high energy physics, however I do know that this is totally unrelated as this was obtained through a character on a 2nd account so in my case at least this doesn't corroborate the theory about double bps :-)
IZON	Posted - 2004.03.17 13:01:00 - [64] Quote: Edited by: Morkt Drak on 17/03/2004 12:50:51 You know what you should do IZON? Go read your first post in this thread, then go read the forum-rules definition of trolling. Apply your own latest rant to it, pour yourself some milk, then go cry into it. Your only contribution to this thread, from start to finish, has been deliberate trolling. Opps - forgot - no it wasn't only trolling: you gave hundreds of people a chuckle in how badly you were caught out whilst trolling.. musn't forget that. Get a life Mortk, really. "...master! there's a guy in the south village called IZON, he is a Ninja!"
PinkPanther	Posted - 2004.03.17 13:50:00 - [65] lol @ the sad people who's only method of feeling special of cleaver is to flame... Your lives must be so empty outside these forums
Athule Snanm	Posted - 2004.03.17 14:45:00 - [66] Quote: ...and because of the outcry from players who would be hard done by in having previously diverted training time to alt researchers... If this is true then it's a shame that such an important aspect of the game doesn't reward specialists much and is so dominated by alts and people with a (relatively) tiny number of RPs. Personally I stopped doing research missions several weeks ago due to the suspicion that it didn't actually have a significant impact on the results of the lottery. What I have done is buy RPM, and now I think that may have been a reasonable thing to do after all... An interesting calculation using the 'top' researcher figures is that, on average and assuming he maintains a proportionate position to the opposition throughout the project, it will take 131 lottery draws for him to win a ticket. Obviously those of use with less successful projects have to wait considerably longer. One wonders how many draws occur and how often? Assuming there are 5 draws a week, on average this ³ber researcher will have to wait 6 months before starting to feel a little unlucky in not getting a BP, and considerably longer before he can feel very unlucky. One way to get involved in the most draws is to start multiple research projects in different, and presumably overlapping, fields. Possibly this is the correct strategy then - get involved in as many draws as you can. _______________________________ Doomheim - EVE's only hygiene!
Harisdrop	Posted - 2004.03.17 15:51:00 - [67] It is a stair system. You have a level 1 type research skill you have chances above your level. So if you are doing a agent that has starship but you are doing Mechanical engineering you still have a chance to get the starship. The key is that its distributed by NPC corp and its agents. If few are doing the npc corp then you have a better chance with that agent, unless Papa says otherwise. I remeber him saying something to this effect when the Lottery started. Would you want to work for a company that treats you like a number or a few where your actions mean more? -------------------------- Garsh ma it soo cool killing people in there space thingies
Rinji	Posted - 2004.03.17 16:58:00 - [68] Edited by: Rinji on 17/03/2004 17:00:07 LOL @ all the flames. Can't say it's surprising, as people in general seem to have a poor intuitive understanding of Stat & prob. Toss in the consperacy theorists and the "my experiance must be representative of the whole" people and you get lots of amusing posts. However, I would not be surprised if there was a mutliple-bp bug. (Note I didn't say "I know", or "If you go to XYZ corp at 23:23 GMT then...") Our corp has not one but two multiple-bp winners, and both of them experienced the winnings fairly close together. We could just be lucky, of corse, but it is a little suspicious. EDIT: Harris, PoPa has said, and it was repeated in this thread, that NPC corp means nothing. Only feild. Vice Admiral Rinji Morisato Logistics Division Commanding Officer of Logistics Division
Morkt Drakt	Posted - 2004.03.17 17:08:00 - [69] Quote: The key is that its distributed by NPC corp and its agents. If few are doing the npc corp then you have a better chance with that agent, unless Papa says otherwise. I remeber him saying something to this effect when the Lottery started. For crying out loud - read what people post. PapaSMurf quite clearly stated, and the information quite clearly repeated in this thread: the RP pool is for the SKILL.. it has nothing to do with the agent or NPC corp at all.
Rancid Mare	Posted - 2004.03.17 17:14:00 - [70] TomB > semp: are you an owner of a Tech2 blueprint? semp > 4 so far tomB :p TomB > You own an elite frig bp as well? lucky sods allready got 4 tech2 bps and Tombs asking if he has an elite frigate as well ? bah i wish my rd agent whould show even the slightest hint of giving out a bp..or 4 Rancid Mare of the EveMarshals. Our Webby Recruitement Videos here
Harisdrop	Posted - 2004.03.17 17:34:00 - [71] Morkt: 1) it was stated its by field. I give you that but have you noticed some corps have better agents in certain fields. 2) Morkt is everything in the agent system bugged? I have looked over many weeks of forums and this is your greatest effort. -------------------------- Garsh ma it soo cool killing people in there space thingies
Morkt Drakt	Posted - 2004.03.17 18:29:00 - [72] Edited by: Morkt Drak on 17/03/2004 18:51:24 Quote: Morkt: 1) it was stated its by field. I give you that but have you noticed some corps have better agents in certain fields. Field IS Skill Hari. E.g. Field= Caldari Staship, skill required = Caldari Starship Engineering. Makes not odds if your agent is with Bob the Builder or LaiDai... they just total up the RPs and pull out a winner. There is no breakdown by Agent or NPC Corp as you claimed. Thats why PapaSmurf gave the figures quoted above: Total RPs and highest player RPs in that field. I do not wish to pick fault with you over this, but your earlier claims were totally contrary to this. There's no point in proliferating such when it appears to be incorrect. At the end of the day though only CCP have the information needed to verify any of this. We're not asking to change the system, we're not asking for all that info. We're simply asking them to double and triple check some instances of multiple winners that "feel" wrong and statistically look wrong. Its not a witch hunt, its a pretty simple question and one which PapaSmurf IS looking into. Why? Because he thinks it's a bit odd also, not impossible, just "maybe" odd. Why so much bruhaha is caused by asking him to do that is a mystery. - - - Some people believe that the only way you can support a MOG is to praise it at every step, never question the devs and always believing they are inviolate and incapable of error. Others realise the stupidity of the former viewpoint. Having benefitted from the current system, and likely to benefit further given no changes, how and why my motives appear to be questioned and chastised at every step is beyond me. Luckily I don't give a toss. I want to know the system is working correctly, I believe implicitly in the right to question that it is working properly; anybody with issues over that belief - tough. People like IZON who join these discussion with nothing but intent to troll from their first post onwards just make the effort more worthwhile...and life on IRC more fun. It is, afterall, good to laugh.
Harisdrop	Posted - 2004.03.17 19:52:00 - [73] I will have the last word. That is I think the devs have done a wonderful job. True its not perfect and we can have a forum about it. I think its not fair to say that there is a bug and flaw and they have to check it. Why do ther put in thier post that somethings will not be understood by the community? not completly -------------------------- Garsh ma it soo cool killing people in there space thingies
IZON	Posted - 2004.03.17 20:37:00 - [74] Edited by: IZON on 17/03/2004 21:07:46 Quote: People like IZON who join these discussion with nothing but intent to troll from their first post onwards just make the effort more worthwhile...and life on IRC more fun. Oxymoron, the point has been made (repeatedly) we understand the issues and the devs are looking into it. With any luck PS will tweak Castor and the odds on high RP earners might be improved by X% & low RP earners shouldnÆt get so lucky, touche! "...master! there's a guy in the south village called IZON, he is a Ninja!"
Doppleganger	Posted - 2004.03.17 21:18:00 - [75] Quote: Toss in the consperacy theorists Oh I hear someone talking about me.... if you dont believe in consperacy theories then you are not looking hard enough. hehehe This was thread just wondering if there was any errors in the distrubtion of t2 bpos... I guess I remember the devs saying once they wanted to make it so the winners of t2 bpos will have a chance of monopolies on them and by giving ppl multiple bpos this will happen. j/k I mean after all we were just questioning the system trying to make sure it was working correctly.... for all the hard work CCP puts in they have been known to make mistakes. Some never get caught until players speak up and question the system.
Temujin Destovai	Posted - 2004.03.17 23:21:00 - [76] Quote: I will have the last word. That is I think the devs have done a wonderful job. True its not perfect and we can have a forum about it. *I think its not fair to say that there is a bug and flaw and they have to check it.* Why do ther put in thier post that somethings will not be understood by the community? not completly OUCH The quality of trolling in this thread makes CA vs evolm0otion troll and flamefests look like a convention of Mensa members discussing world peace The Chronicles of Xanadu
Phaethon	Posted - 2004.03.18 00:22:00 - [77] Edited by: Phaethon on 18/03/2004 00:23:43 @ Ayane If any bug's existed their presence would be a matter of galactic security, and would therefore fall under the category of plausible denial. Or is it just simple denial? I can't seem to remember. Anyway. All the tech II's BP's roumored to exsist is just ppl. seeing the refraction of a tech I bp through their pod goo. WTB. Infifitrator I drones
Astrid Tron	Posted - 2004.03.18 00:32:00 - [78] Maybe it is some bug... The same kind responsible for some people being unable to recieve implants. I have been playing 10 months (about) and mainly running agents - never seen an implant, and I doubt that any of my 5 R&D-agents will ever be lucky, event though they are the top lvl3 researchers from 3 different corps. Some claim to recieve more than 1 implant in a day - what is that all about? I know of colossal bad luck, and I dont think I am entitled to anything. But I am puzzled - is the system really working? If I could be assured that it was just bad luck, I would be more at ease, but I am really beginning to doubt that the random functions really work... The outcome seems too not random. I dont mind loosing, but every once in a while, I need to know if the lottery is fair and working. --------------------------------------------- When you have to kill a man, it takes nothing to be polite
Doppleganger	Posted - 2004.03.18 04:20:00 - [79] Quote: Maybe it is some bug... The same kind responsible for some people being unable to recieve implants.I have been playing 10 months (about) and mainly running agents - never seen an implant Do missions for me and I can say for sure you will recieve an implant, once you get a t2 frigate bp for me I can give you an implant or 2.
Jon Ogden	Posted - 2004.03.18 07:36:00 - [80] Quote: Ya I agree.. its not that I find it weird how people with low amount of RP get blueprints.. thats rather logical.. what I find weird is that ive now heard of 8-10 people who have gotten 2 blueprints from the same agent with next to little or no RP. If this happens to one guy id think "wow colossal good luck" but when it turns into a regular occurence it does seem a bit strange. Exactly, I am concerned/confused about the seemingly high number of double-hits people are getting in rapid succession. Dunno what will be found, but it smells funny.
Mned Graydroggen	Posted - 2004.03.18 09:42:00 - [81] My 2 isk. When I started to indulge myself in research I assummed that getting more rp's would bring me to a better position to get an bp. Like in a lottery one buys multiple tickets. Reading through this thread I don't see any indication that there is some system of "multiple tickets" i.e. for every x rp's one gets one ticket in the next lottery. If this is the case this kinda sks. I mean my corp has invested alot of isk in the first stages of research so that we would be gathering rp's asap. As the system seems to be now, all one has to do is talk to an agent, do one or two missions for him/her and then basicaly ignore him/her till a bp drops. That doesn't make sence. I dont mind not winning the lottery, I do however mind that even if I buy multiple tickets ( do research extensivly ), only one of those tickets takes part in this lottery. .
Discorporation	Posted - 2004.03.18 09:52:00 - [82] 1 RP = 1 ticket [Heterocephalus glaber]
Albar Gray	Posted - 2004.03.18 13:05:00 - [83] Just to let you know a friend of mine also got 2 BP's. However in this case, I belive the distribution is not at issue. Having just recieved a BP, and restarted the project my friend was offered a 'Small Capacitor Booster II' which I suspect being so completely worthless had probably been refused a hubderd times already. As my friend only had a hundred or so RP's having just restarted researching the BP was accepted and taken out of circulation to do everyone else a favour ----------------------------------------------- IÆm not schizophrenic... ThatÆs my alt
Mned Graydroggen	Posted - 2004.03.18 13:29:00 - [84] Quote: As my friend only had a hundred or so RP's having just restarted researching the BP was accepted and taken out of circulation to do everyone else a favour
Mifune	Posted - 2004.03.18 14:32:00 - [85] My simple 2 cents... The quality of bp should be limited to what your doing/working for your agent... while lv of agent should go into this calculation.. so should your science lv... In all common sense it seems to me that if a slew of **y reaserchers do work they will get a slew of **ty bp's. While the rare/uber scientist are the only ones able to even fathom the rare and special bp''s like elite frigates and such. This is how almost all work in any RL situation progresses... A. number of Rp's should give you a better chance for a bp B. Your lv of skill should unlock better quality in rewards. Its helps game mechanics as well... think of it this way a huge corp could have all their peons get a few rp's a piece and because they have so many combined rp''s they get the "uber" bp.... sigh no thats just stupid game mechanics... A small specialized corp of scientist should be able to get less Rp''s than the uber corp of peons but because they are such high quality they can find/invent bpO''s out of the peons league. I mean if you look at current events why would the entire world of eve focus are two scientist for a 2months time period.. because those 2 scientist can create wonders no one else can. This is a natural work flow that the writers of CCP obviously understand, I just hope the game dev''s see this as well. --And if this is how the system works it is having issues because I have seen players with low rp''s and low lv's in skills get very nice bpo's while ive known ppl with a lot more rp's and higher lv's get low end bpO's... That makes no sense. Sure more ppl=more chances but there should be a limit on quality to quality... cause as it stands quantity to quality is the current status. Look at any other skills... higher the LV = more bonus's.. there are even more requierments on skills with this new patch.. I.E torp's need more skills... well make TL2 bp's have scientific requierments to invent... I guess thats the easiest way to solve the issue thats forming... and makes perfect sense while giving an actual reward for scientist to train their skills...
Sarena Sparrow	Posted - 2004.03.18 20:28:00 - [86] Edited by: Sarena Sparrow on 18/03/2004 20:51:41 PAPA SMURF, this is why running missions SUX. Until you give those that do more greater rewards, that is. Until then, they are nothing more than an annoyance that has to be dealt with in order to get BP's. Until you make it a tiered system where those with the most RP have the only chance of being in the highest teir for the best BP's, it is RETARDED. Tier 1 - small modules - for peeps with low RP Tier 2 - med modules - for people with medium RP Tier 3 - Large modules - for peeps with lots of RP Tier 4 - Ship BP's - ONLY FOR UBER RP's. To reward someone with 100 RP the best BP in the game is kinda DUMB.
Adliger Krieger	Posted - 2004.03.18 20:33:00 - [87] Edited by: Adliger Krieger on 18/03/2004 20:36:54 Papa Smurf Said: "I will neither participate in any discussions about how the lottery must be broken because so-and-so-won-but-I-didn't, nor even bother reading them, as the fact of the matter is that no player has or ever will have sufficient data to participate in a meaningful discussion about this." You know what? I dont't have sufficient data to have a meaningful discussion about the molecular structure of cow cr@p, but that doesnt mean it doesnt stink.
Bodhisattva	Posted - 2004.03.18 23:22:00 - [88] I accepted an offered T2 BPO but the agent didn't give it to me. When I checked my RP's they were gone. Now when I try to do reserch with the same agent or any other agent of any corp (I have acsess to many different agents of various corps) they all tell me I have an ongoing reserch somewhere and can't start a new one. Now I seem to be out of the lottery and even though I filed a petition on the 9th of march I have got no reply from CCP.
Gan Howorth	Posted - 2004.03.19 16:49:00 - [89] Just a thought..is anyone aware that computers cannot generate truly random numbers, it will create the same "random" number in a given situation. I think the C64 could because it used its on board sound chip's white sound (analogue) generator to do so. Don't mean to stir anything up but could this explain why the same people are getting the same rare BPs twice over.
Wraeththu	Posted - 2004.03.19 18:16:00 - [90] Quote: Just a thought..is anyone aware that computers cannot generate truly random numbers, it will create the same "random" number in a given situation. If you go back about 2 months you'll find a rather long discussion we've already had on computer's psuedo randomization. The long and short is, without knowing how and when a seed is created and the table generated, it's all idle banter. -- TomB: End the speed-race. 1 propulsion mod allowed, make turrets affect ship attributes like +speed/+ab speed +agil for progressivly smaller/lighter turrets, -speed/-ab speed -agil for long-range.
McWatt	Posted - 2004.03.21 08:35:00 - [91] any news? important topic!
Phaethon	Posted - 2004.03.22 17:26:00 - [92] Bump WTB. Infifitrator I drones
NoNamium	Posted - 2004.03.23 19:54:00 - [93] found out anything smurf? oh, and bump!
Lady Madonna	Posted - 2004.03.23 19:56:00 - [94] 12 days ago, my agent rewarded me with a Claw Interceptor BP. I had ~16k RP at that time. Today I got a second Claw BP from the same agent (4.6k RP). Colossal luck ?
Morkt Drakt	Posted - 2004.03.23 20:00:00 - [95] Quote: 12 days ago, my agent rewarded me with a Claw Interceptor BP. I had ~16k RP at that time. Today I got a second Claw BP from the same agent (4.6k RP). Colossal luck ? Apparently neither yourself not the others who have achieved this singular feet are in anyway at al "Lucky" - its just inevitable given the statistics of the lottery (apparently).
Athule Snanm	Posted - 2004.03.23 20:36:00 - [96] I can't believe it's just down to statistics. Best researcher in the field with the most points (presumably a starship field) had a probability of winning a lottery of 0.76%. Of winning two - and this has to a massive overestimate as I'm assuming that person has the same RP in both draws - would be roughly 0.76% * 0.76% = 0.006% (or under one in 17,000). Heaven knows how small the actual chances are - and for the whole thing to be repeated more than once for different pilots given the small number of ship BPs that seem to be out there is to me inconceivable. Maybe my logic is very flawed, but if so it'd be nice to have some solid explanation from PapaSmurf so that we can stop worrying about it. _______________________________ Doomheim - EVE's only hygiene!
Viduus	Posted - 2004.03.23 21:38:00 - [97] Edited by: Viduus on 23/03/2004 21:44:11 Quote: Quote: 12 days ago, my agent rewarded me with a Claw Interceptor BP. I had ~16k RP at that time. Today I got a second Claw BP from the same agent (4.6k RP). Colossal luck ? Apparently neither yourself not the others who have achieved this singular feet are in anyway at al "Lucky" - its just inevitable given the statistics of the lottery (apparently). OMG that is such BS I can smell it all the way from Canada. Statistically speaking, it's nigh unto impossible that so many receive duplicates, most especially from the same agents. Morkt, talk to Papa Smurf for us, would you please? I mean how stupid do they think the customers are....? CCP - you'll get more respect from your customers by admitting something is wrong than you will from trying to cover it up (read: lying)... especially with such a lame excuse as "inevitable"... One.. TWO... OK, not probable, but plausible. Last count of duplicates (unofficial, of course) was over a dozen, just from these forums. And most people don't post here, so then what is the actual number of duplicate recipients versus total recipients? * Public Channel: NEA *
Morkt Drakt	Posted - 2004.03.23 21:40:00 - [98] Papa said he would look into it - so i assume that's what he's doing atm. I doubt we will hear if there has been a problem though so we may never know if a fix was made or even a problem found.
Ciber Wulf	Posted - 2004.03.23 23:20:00 - [99] Quote: Statistically speaking, it's nigh unto impossible that so many receive duplicates, most especially from the same agents. Must be at least 10 or 20 ppl that have had a bp twice. Either they have something the rest don't, or the system is broken.
NightDragon	Posted - 2004.03.24 00:43:00 - [100] Edited by: NightDragon on 24/03/2004 00:46:53 Edited by: NightDragon on 24/03/2004 00:45:59 i have gotten 2 Bpc from my lvl2 agent, the first one took a week, and was really useless, explotion shield booster(added like 15% to explotion restance, second a week later micro shield extinder 2 decent adds 42 shields(well better than the 1's) but now its been about 3 weeks and i havent gotten a thing Yonal Janonah researching hydromag, agent has lvl 2 in it and currently have 1963 rp points, with about 38.52 per day, with a agent quality of -9 effective of 7
Lucas De'Thal	Posted - 2004.03.24 04:31:00 - [101] Edited by: Lucas De'Thal on 24/03/2004 04:34:32 Quote: 12 days ago, my agent rewarded me with a Claw Interceptor BP. I had ~16k RP at that time. Today I got a second Claw BP from the same agent (4.6k RP). Colossal luck ? d8mn you!!! (really, though, I don't blame you at all......edited this part cause I don't want papa smurf to nuke my chances personally) ______________________________________________ Hellmar > sorry for the attitude, playing a n00b character through the current state just left me a bit bitter dev chat: Mar 18, 2004 hellmar> "you lot are just so clever you have a good history for out smarting us :-S " dev chat: Feb 12, 2004
Trinity Prime	Posted - 2004.03.24 14:03:00 - [102] This is really BS. I have over 5k RP's been doing research missions religiously every day for over a month and not a a whiff of a BP. I have shelled out millions of isk for trade goods, Science Grads, Homeless etc with no friggin return. A friend of mine has close to 20K RP and no BP has been offered. Not everyone wants to play Eve for PVP CCP. Fix this.
ghoo	Posted - 2004.03.24 16:45:00 - [103] Eve has got 30k+ subscribers. If we listened to you and gave out a blueprint to each person doing missions, the blueprints would be worth nothing. I am also very tired of people hering about someone who has gotten 2-4 tech 2 blueprints, and equals that with the person having got the blueprints from an agent. I know a few persons that has gotten 2-4 tech 2 blueprints; do you wanna know how they got the blueprints? Bought them and traded.
Harisdrop	Posted - 2004.03.24 16:52:00 - [104] Just a question to my solution. I wonder how many get thier second tech II bp, third tech II bp from the same agent and npc corp? I did! -------------------------- Garsh ma it soo cool killing people in there space thingies
Maud Dib	Posted - 2004.03.24 17:39:00 - [105] I got a crap tech 2 bp a couple of weeks ago and haven't gotten one since. ( Well my alt did) So at least everyone can feel better about me not getting multiples. To the person who complained about having 5k Rp's and not getting a BP. I have bad news for you. If it was only based on numbers of RP's you still wouldn't get one. 5k is not a lot of RP's so really you are better off with the lottery style.
Morkt Drakt	Posted - 2004.03.24 19:25:00 - [106] Quote: Just a question to my solution. I wonder how many get thier second tech II bp, third tech II bp from the same agent and npc corp? erm.. 'lots' did who did... not hard to work out why either.
Rancid Mare	Posted - 2004.03.24 20:57:00 - [107] From the CSM.......... TomB > Wait a minute, these people weren't researching ships? Morkt Drak > ship field has over 5million RPs - I win a frigate BPO this week i go to ZERO RPS, whats my chance sof winning ANOTHER one next week? Morkt Drak > and, yes, one was doing mechanical engineering Morkt Drak > (which replaced astronautical engineering btw) kieron > Ok guys, we've been doing well so far. Let's keep the side comments to a minimum and keep rolling along. TomB > Ok ... then I understand the problem TomB > We'll look into this TomB > didn't know that it was a week between so now it needs investigating....was only lile 6 pages ago Morkt started this post. dosnt fill you with confidence does it. Rancid Mare of the EveMarshals. Our Webby Recruitement Videos here
Wraeththu	Posted - 2004.03.24 21:40:00 - [108] Quote: so now it needs investigating....was only lile 6 pages ago Morkt started this post. dosnt fill you with confidence does it. TomB isn't the agent's guy. Papa is. I don't see why he'd even know about it. Either way, All he's going to do is go tell Papa, who's going to say "I know already, I'm looking at it". -- TomB: End the speed-race. 1 propulsion mod allowed, make turrets affect ship attributes like +speed/+ab speed +agil for progressivly smaller/lighter turrets, -speed/-ab speed -agil for long-range.
PhamNuwen	Posted - 2004.03.24 21:57:00 - [109] Edited by: PhamNuwen on 24/03/2004 21:59:29 Quote: From the CSM.......... TomB > Wait a minute, these people weren't researching ships? Morkt Drak > ship field has over 5million RPs - I win a frigate BPO this week i go to ZERO RPS, whats my chance sof winning ANOTHER one next week? Morkt Drak > and, yes, one was doing mechanical engineering Morkt Drak > (which replaced astronautical engineering btw) kieron > Ok guys, we've been doing well so far. Let's keep the side comments to a minimum and keep rolling along. TomB > Ok ... then I understand the problem TomB > We'll look into this TomB > didn't know that it was a week between so now it needs investigating....was only lile 6 pages ago Morkt started this post. dosnt fill you with confidence does it. CCP is ignoring the forum...?! It seem's so :( Btw: have a look to the number (and quality) of the Dev-Postings - it is also a little bit frustrating... Link to DevPostFinder --- FSR in EVE Other Characters: EVE: PhamDaCowa EVE: SmilingMurder Mankind: [FSR]Lord BuilderOne (retired)
Lucas De'Thal	Posted - 2004.03.25 02:37:00 - [110] Quote: Eve has got 30k+ subscribers. If we listened to you and gave out a blueprint to each person doing missions, the blueprints would be worth nothing. I am also very tired of people hering about someone who has gotten 2-4 tech 2 blueprints, and equals that with the person having got the blueprints from an agent. I know a few persons that has gotten 2-4 tech 2 blueprints; do you wanna know how they got the blueprints? Bought them and traded. you are not paying attention and are obviously clueless to the situation....maybe you should actually read the thread and get a clue ______________________________________________ Hellmar > sorry for the attitude, playing a n00b character through the current state just left me a bit bitter dev chat: Mar 18, 2004 hellmar> "you lot are just so clever you have a good history for out smarting us :-S " dev chat: Feb 12, 2004
Sabahl	Posted - 2004.03.25 03:20:00 - [111] This is utterly pathetic. We started raising queries regarding the BP distribution code within a few days of the BPs being handed out. how long has it taken for something to actually be done about it?
Rancid Mare	Posted - 2004.03.25 09:30:00 - [112] Edited by: Rancid Mare on 25/03/2004 09:38:02 Quote: TomB isn't the agent's guy. Papa is. I don't see why he'd even know about it. Either way, All he's going to do is go tell Papa, who's going to say "I know already, I'm looking at it". and your point is what exactly ? that we sould be happy with this **** poor performance because of what ? i dont care who has been told Tomb/Papa/the Tooth Fairy/Santa claus/The Yeti/aliend that crashed in rosewell.....i dont care at all, ccp were told and its their job to get on top of it. if here at work some one reported a problem to my workmate and he blanked it becasue it was my AREA and not his then we would most probably both get shot. as the post above states we were questioning this situation weeks and weeks ago and as per usal no one from ccp pays a blind bit of notice. so you have a smart arse reply for why we should find that acceptable ? Rancid Mare of the EveMarshals. Our Webby Recruitement Videos here
Harisdrop	Posted - 2004.03.25 13:22:00 - [113] I have a solution: Stop dreaming of Tech II bp go do some mining!!! Ciber tell me it aint soo. It is not about the individual but the group. -------------------------- Garsh ma it soo cool killing people in there space thingies
Beldaws	Posted - 2004.03.25 13:42:00 - [114] Edited by: Beldaws on 25/03/2004 13:44:20 I've gotten 3 tech II bps so far and they have all been from the same level 2 agent and I've never had more than 500 RP at the time. I've gotten a Small Armor Repairer II bp and two Medium Armor Repairer II bps. I recently sold the Small and Medium Armor Repairer II bp and received my 2nd Medium Armor Repairer II bp a couple days after the sale. Guess I was meant to produce those. And no, I'm not telling which agent it is. I'm still waiting to get that Large Armor Repairer II bp.
Wraeththu	Posted - 2004.03.25 16:26:00 - [115] Edited by: Wraeththu on 25/03/2004 16:29:06 Quote: if here at work some one reported a problem to my workmate and he blanked it becasue it was my AREA and not his then we would most probably both get shot. That's not what you're talking about though. You're talking about at your work, if someone(Morkt) comes and tells you(papa) you have a problem, and you start working on it, then that person(morkt) goes and tells one of your co-workers(TomB), who then comes and tells you (Papa). First of all, you're mad at your mythical co-worker(TomB), because he didn't know what was going on in your job? Why should he, it's not his job Second of all, when your coworker comes and tells you, what are you going to say to him? "uh yeah, thanks, I know already". And he'll go "oh, ok" and be done with it. Programmers have a defect tracking system for a reason. Defects get assigned to the person who's job it is. I can have up to hundreds defects assigned to me at any point. I don't expect the guy sitting next to me, even if he's my teammate, to know which defects are on my list. It's not his job. -- TomB: End the speed-race. 1 propulsion mod allowed, make turrets affect ship attributes like +speed/+ab speed +agil for progressivly smaller/lighter turrets, -speed/-ab speed -agil for long-range.
Finderne	Posted - 2004.03.25 17:14:00 - [116] Quote: First of all, you're mad at your mythical co-worker(TomB), because he didn't know what was going on in your job? Why should he, it's not his job The software programming analogy only goes so far. Eve is a very dynamic product - most software work is on much more static products. If this problem is real (and it sounds that way to me) it means that the T2 distribution was fubar. CCP knew how critical equitable T2 was in advance, and what they promised to deliver that with an unbiased lottery system. So a potentially major flaw like this should have been escalated by now. My guess on what is going on is basically CYA. Someone is hoping to not have to report "oops, my work was buggy", and is working on it under the radar so they can instead sound better by reporting "there was a bug, but here's how we fix it".
Harisdrop	Posted - 2004.03.25 17:16:00 - [117] Still, what is a bug? There are many definition of bugs. 1) where the user demands a result based on what he expects and the program does not do it. This is based on data the user has. Example: I need addresses that have 2 people households and 3 cars. When the list comes out you get 3 people and 3 cars. 2) where the program makes other things not work. The programmer designed a flaw into the code. The result makes other data messed up.Example: The 2 people 3 cars data is sent to program and makes a mailing list. The mailing list does not produce the correct names on the report. There are others. What I want some on this topic to understand is, If the programmer believes his program is doing the right thing and can show its doing the right thing even if others question its results cause those results are not what they want, the programmer is right. Remeber if you dont have the data to check against the programmers data you loose. -------------------------- Garsh ma it soo cool killing people in there space thingies
Lao Tzu	Posted - 2004.03.25 18:23:00 - [118] This post from a thread in General sort of summs it up Quote: But since it's obviously broken, what I do is restart my research with my agents everytime I get to around 1000 points. I've been able to collect 5 BPs by doing this, all but one of them within 24 hours of restarting(starting back from 0) on each agent. The other one I got at around 300 points with an agent I had for 6 days. Got my very first one when I was sick of my 20k points in starship research going to waste and restarted research on my first agent. Got a BP a few hours later with less than a hundred points. It's broken, take advantage of it now.
Morkt Drakt	Posted - 2004.03.25 18:36:00 - [119] Quote: What I want some on this topic to understand is, If the programmer believes his program is doing the right thing and can show its doing the right thing even if others question its results cause those results are not what they want, the programmer is right. Remeber if you dont have the data to check against the programmers data you loose. We know all that hari - we know it and understand it. Its not the point. You keep arguing something nobody really cares about and has been dealt with. We "know" it isnt working right from anecdotal evidence alone. We know it isnt working right as nobody is supposed to keep stopping and restarting R&D to get new BPs. We know it isnt working right because multiple people have gotten repeat uber-rare frigate BPOs from teh same agent twice within very short epriods of time.. and that isnt supposed to happen.
Morkt Drakt	Posted - 2004.03.25 21:23:00 - [120] And.....another person has just goten their second Elite Frigate BPO now.. bringing the total (that i know of) to four. Claw BPO - second time around, under two weeks between the two BPOs, same agent.
Morkt Drakt	Posted - 2004.03.25 21:26:00 - [121] Make that five people - got a double Taranis winner reported also now
Igwilve	Posted - 2004.03.25 21:27:00 - [122] But that's not true, Morkt. It's not that it isn't supposed to happen - it just isn't supposed to be likely. And we don't know that it is - we can't draw conclusions about probablity without a much larger sample size. Because you can't know anything at all just from anecdotal evidence. Anecdotes show that something can happen, not that it happens a lot or is likely to happen. We cannot have enough information to answer these questions.
Athule Snanm	Posted - 2004.03.25 21:49:00 - [123] Actually I would argue that PapaSmurf has provided enough data to highlight a potential problem. We know that the draw is a simple pull a number from a list affair, and we know what the highest RP total in the highest researched field was. Probability of someone winning one was 0.76% (0.0076). Chances of it happening to the same person twice at the same probability (which of course is a massive over-estimate) is 0.0076^2 or 0.006%. That's one in 17,000. I don't think there have been 17,000 interceptors released yet. Of course it's possible for something like this to happen anyway - but when it happens on numerous occasions it starts to stretch credulity to the extreme. Note that this applies to other fields as much as to the starship ones. _______________________________ Doomheim - EVE's only hygiene!
Mjolnir	Posted - 2004.03.25 22:41:00 - [124] Quote: Edited by: PhamNuwen on 24/03/2004 21:59:29 Quote: From the CSM.......... TomB > Wait a minute, these people weren't researching ships? Morkt Drak > ship field has over 5million RPs - I win a frigate BPO this week i go to ZERO RPS, whats my chance sof winning ANOTHER one next week? Morkt Drak > and, yes, one was doing mechanical engineering Morkt Drak > (which replaced astronautical engineering btw) kieron > Ok guys, we've been doing well so far. Let's keep the side comments to a minimum and keep rolling along. TomB > Ok ... then I understand the problem TomB > We'll look into this TomB > didn't know that it was a week between so now it needs investigating....was only lile 6 pages ago Morkt started this post. dosnt fill you with confidence does it. CCP is ignoring the forum...?! It seem's so :( Btw: have a look to the number (and quality) of the Dev-Postings - it is also a little bit frustrating... Link to DevPostFinder From what that snippet from the CSM sounds like they are more intrested in making sure the right skills are assinged the right blueprint types then they are with the utter improbability of double and triple winners in the same feild. The standoffness of them when someone critsizes their code is sort of depressing too. I know it can be hard to accept there is a problem with your own design implmentation espically if a programmer has worked hard on figuring something out. But when your presented with these kind of reports from your player base you have got to accecpt facts that there is something wrong. Some things cant be shrugged off as just some player turning down a blueprint just to wait for something better. Which PA character are you?
Morkt Drakt	Posted - 2004.03.25 23:08:00 - [125] Quote: But that's not true, Morkt. It's not that it isn't supposed to happen - it just isn't supposed to be likely. And we don't know that it is - we can't draw conclusions about probablity without a much larger sample size. Because you can't know anything at all just from anecdotal evidence. Anecdotes show that something can happen, not that it happens a lot or is likely to happen. We cannot have enough information to answer these questions. Thats the point though - we havent been given anything at all. We will never have anything more than anecdotal evidence because anything I (or anybody else) can gather relies on being told the truth to start with. There is no way I could ever verify what these people tell me... its all suspect evidence and I know that. My point is simple - no matter how unlikely one or two instances might be they "could" be possible given chance. 3, 4 and now 5 is not chance. That simply isnt chance. Chance doesnt work like that. It isn't an "artifact"... artifacts don't show discernible patterns. And when we can go no further looking into something the devs surely must. I remain deeply concerned about the entire affair, both form the bottom line potential bugs to the stunning silence, reticence and lack of communication from CCP HQ. We all "Know" nothing. BUt when the people who should know it all are clammed up and hiding what are we supposed to think then?
Naal Morno	Posted - 2004.03.26 01:40:00 - [126] I won 10MN AB II blueprint with 4,000 points in Rocket Science.... it surely looks ok to me... This is with 2 characters and a total of 6 projects going. Just FYI if it helps. Your Heavy Neutron Blaster II perfectly strikes Serpentis Chief Sentinel, wrecking for 660.4 damage.
Morkt Drakt	Posted - 2004.03.26 01:45:00 - [127] Quote: I won 10MN AB II blueprint with 4,000 points in Rocket Science.... it surely looks ok to me... This is with 2 characters and a total of 6 projects going. Just FYI if it helps. Not really Naal. THe part of the lottery with "who wins waht" int erms of RPs doesn't seem borken to me. Its just this issue of repeat winners within very short periods of time (two weeks or so) for the rarest of all and most sought after BPs (Elite Frigates) that smells wrong.
MalFunction	Posted - 2004.03.26 06:54:00 - [128] 20k research points in amarrian starship engineering bpo offered 2 days ago just fyi :)
Hardin	Posted - 2004.03.26 09:01:00 - [129] Just to add to the anecdotal evidence someone else I know told me last night that he had got two BP's within the space of 24hrs from the same agent. The second 'win' was from a mere 87 RP points. Possible - yes... Likely - no!
NoNamium	Posted - 2004.03.26 10:46:00 - [130] This is nasty if it is true. How would CCP go about "fixing" the wrongness of the R&D-lottery. When BPO's were given out by agents for Cruisers and Battleships they quickly fixed it so that only BPCs were given out. If they were to something similar to players who have recieved multiple tech 2 BPOs then there would be an outcry, but the outcry would be the same if they just fixed it and told that there was a bug. My guess is that if it is indeed broken as many multiples at low RP-averages suggests, then they will fix it but not tell the community (too much hazzle) From a strategic point of view that would be the smartest thing CCP could do, it's what would do, but that just leaves me angry because I'm not one of the chosen few to get double/triple tech 2 BPOs
NoNamium	Posted - 2004.03.26 11:19:00 - [131] Ok, I've been thinking and now I'm getting really angry... to a point that sets of my "quit eve"-alarms. The reportings suggests that there are about 50-100 dublicate or more winners of tech 2 blueprints. An at least half of them have gotten the blueprints with under 1k RP. IF the handout of blueprints occur as stated by Papa Smurf then that shouldn't happen even if EVE ran throughout the entire lifetime of the universe with everyone on the planet playing. What really gets under my skin is that there is nothing they could do about it which would satisfy me. The ONLY thing I would accept would be impossible to implement: Roll-back of all RP dealt by agents Roll-back of all BPO handouts of tech 2 BPs Roll-back of all trades with tech 2 BPs Roll-back of all production of tech 2 items Roll-back of all use of tech 2 components used in tech 2 item production Roll-back of all trades with tech 2 items Roll-back of all missions involving R&D agents including cost for items used in these missions Roll-back of all payment for lease involving factorys and research facilities used for tech 2 blueprints Roll-back of all sales on the market involving tech 2 blueprints, tech 2 items and components Roll-back of all escrow missions involving tech 2 components, tech 2 items or blueprints Roll-back of all courrier missions involving tech 2 components, tech 2 items or blueprints Roll-back of any ship-travel that involved the use of tech 2 modules (this one can't be done) IE. start from scratch again. Its the only way to be completely fair, but unfortunately impossible. I know this must sound insane, but the market has been completely warped by tech 2 technology and all that follows from it. Players who were lucky to get the benefit of the broken R&D double and triple handouts are harvesting great sums of money which people who were treated "according-to-algorithm" can only gaze with envy. Please ignore all this if someone proves statistically that I'm wrong or that the algorithms ARE working as Papa Smurf suggested.
Methos	Posted - 2004.03.26 12:08:00 - [132] I myself have over 20k in starship R&D, I dont mind the fact that I am not getting a Tech2 bpo. I do mind thet fact that there are ppl getting multiple bpo's in my field with little to no rp's and not even being in the ship field they are getting the bpo's for the field. As I recall there was to be only a slight chance for someone outside the field of starship enginering to get a ship bp but, it sounds like from these posts that this IS more of a probability than being in the Ship field itself. I am not taking anything CCP has to say on faith. Give me facts, show me that the "lottery" is working as it should. I don't believe in santa or the tooth fairy and right now I dont believe the "lottery" is working as it should otherwise we would all be here gripping about something else. "We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit." ARISTOTLE
Athule Snanm	Posted - 2004.03.26 12:14:00 - [133] Statistically the BPs going to non-specialists is not a suprise, given the evidence we have. People who go on about things like 'I have 10 times the chance, twice the chance, etc' are looking at it from the wrong point of view. The highest R&D researcher a few weeks ago had a probability of winning in their field of 0.76%. That is, roughly 99.24% chance of not winning. If the same researcher had just idled their agent then they'd have a chance of 0.29% - ie 99.71% of not getting one. Let's say that a lowish earner is getting a 10th of their R&D (I suspect the ratio when you discount multipliers is less, but let's say it's a 10th) then the chances of winning are 0.03% - ie 99.97% not going to get a BP. So let's look at those figures: 99.24, 99.71, 99.97 - no matter if you work your guts out or sit back sipping G&Ts all day you are basically unlikely to get a BP in any given draw. Because there are tonnes of small projects, odds are that most of the BPs will go to them. It's like buying 100 lottery tickets in the thoughts that you will then be guaranteed to win the jackpot - it just doesn't work like that. This is the world of ants that PapaSmurf was talking about. The only significant difference is whether you're in a lottery or not - as if you're not you'll never win. My personal opinion is that with the current setup doing R&D agent missions is probably a waste of time. The other side of the issue is the duplicate winners - this is phenomenally unlikely, especially for the rarer BPs where people probably aren't turning them down. The fact that it appears to have happened on several occasions already screams out for further and careful investigation - or at least some very solid counters to the speculations on the forums which are likely to just get louder and louder as time goes by. _______________________________ Doomheim - EVE's only hygiene!
NoNamium	Posted - 2004.03.26 12:21:00 - [134] Athule you're not writing anything that isn't already well known. Perhaps clearing things up a bit, but if you are responding to my posts then it should be made clear that I'm not refering to anything BUT multiple winners.
Athule Snanm	Posted - 2004.03.26 12:27:00 - [135] Quote: Athule you're not writing anything that isn't already well known. Perhaps clearing things up a bit, but if you are responding to my posts then it should be made clear that I'm not refering to anything BUT multiple winners. I'm not responding specifically to your posts, and I'm really just reposting what I've already being saying for a while now. What I'm trying to do is make it clear that the concerns aren't just based on pure speculation, and also making it as explicit as possible for the people with 30K RP who think that they're somehow unlucky not to have had a BP yet. Personally, at this stage, I think the solution to the problem is to add either new advanced science skills requiring the existing skills at 5 that give huge bonuses, or make R&D agent missions give out huge bonuses. There are issues with both suggestions, but I can't see what else can be done to the system without completely tearing it down and really annoying everyone who's invested a lot of time in it so far. _______________________________ Doomheim - EVE's only hygiene!
Dan Daro	Posted - 2004.03.26 13:21:00 - [136] Another one for you Morkt, A member of my corp got one of the energised platings a couple of weeks ago, and got another yesterday. same agent, same research skill.
Morkt Drakt	Posted - 2004.03.26 15:49:00 - [137] Quote: Another one for you Morkt, A member of my corp got one of the energised platings a couple of weeks ago, and got another yesterday. same agent, same research skill. Thats not necessarily a problem Dan. Lots of people WILL get repeat wins via the same agent, as LOTS of people only have one agent.
Phaethon	Posted - 2004.03.26 15:49:00 - [138] Congrats to this thread on it's 10 day birthday. Too bad there hasn't been any followups on papa's first post on page 2. WTB. Infifitrator I drones
Ruffles	Posted - 2004.03.26 17:33:00 - [139] Just to add another to the List Morkt. One of our fighters got our first blueprint. He also got our second blueprint, and he really doesn't do agents, just started it for the 'off-chance'. No one else has, and there are some with quite decent RP totals in some fields.
Rancid Mare	Posted - 2004.03.26 19:06:00 - [140] if u have not heard CCP has spoken. there is no problem with the lottery. as reported by comical ali only moments ago, befor he fell under a large pile of tech2 BPO's his new agent is repeatingly chucking at him. Rancid Mare of the EveMarshals. Our Webby Recruitement Videos here
NoNamium	Posted - 2004.03.27 17:04:00 - [141] That just means that one of two things are true: The lottery works fine or The lottery is broken and CCP would rather say that it is working fine than have an uproar from many of the players
Mr Popov	Posted - 2004.03.28 04:45:00 - [142] Or that the lottery doesn't work fine, and CCP has no idea about it
Booky	Posted - 2004.03.28 14:22:00 - [143] Or that the Lottery is broke and CCP is going to do an inhouse fix and tell everyone it was working right all alone. I personally hope that is the case. It will fix the issues at hand and will also stop everyone and thier brother from crying about not getting a BPO in the error times. I just stopped researching a item after haveing 11k rp points simply because I wanted to research something else. If I never get a BPO, who cares, I have more fun doing other things in eve than worry about a BPO. Spelling corrections welcome, but don't expect me to edit my post.
Lucre	Posted - 2004.03.29 12:05:00 - [144] Quote: As I recall there was to be only a slight chance for someone outside the field of starship enginering to get a ship bp but, it sounds like from these posts that this IS more of a probability than being in the Ship field itself. Well, AIUI if you are researching, say, Mechanical Engineering then you get entered in all race's ship bpo lotteries, whereas if researching Starship Engineering you only get entered in bpo lotteries for one race. Given research points in Starship Engineering are trebled but that there are four races (plus Mech Eng etc. being eligible for other bpos as well as Starships), I think the conclusion should be obvious...
Methos	Posted - 2004.03.29 16:29:00 - [145] Edited by: Methos on 29/03/2004 16:32:25 I believe that was my quote, but what I meant by that is simple. Starship enginering has a x3 multiplyer. The highest person to date has 40k or rp's built up. Lets say we use the one person who got an elite frig bpo 1 week after he got his first. He may have 100-200 rp built up in mechanical enginering so, what your telling me it is very possible for that person to get ANOTHER elite frig bpo over the person who has 40,000 rp's. Once is unlikley but probable, twice and were some where in the vicinity of the tooth fairy and Santa Clause make belive. Owing upto the issue at hand is one thing but trying to treat us like were stupid and ill informed is quite another. You dont need to be a math wiz to tell that statistically this is about as likely as santas sleigh landing on you, given the huge amounts of "ants" working on the same thing. To use Papa Smurfs own agument against him the odds do favor the little guy but the the odds do not favor the same little guy every time or every other time around. I am not a child and resent being treated like one by CCP. If there is a problem fess up and fix it. If not give us difinative proof. As in some numbers to crunch, it is not like were asking for much other than what we were promised and what we are paying for. "We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit." ARISTOTLE
Lucre	Posted - 2004.03.30 12:36:00 - [146] Quote: I believe that was my quote, but what I meant by that is simple.... snip Sorry, I think we're at cross-purposes. I agree entirely that the reported repeat awards appear to make a mockery of the system - I wasn't defending that or attacking you, so apologies if I gave that impression! What I was saying was if anything more depressing in that AIUI even if the lottery is working 'correctly' then you still have more of a chance of winning a starship bpo with a generic science than with starship engineering...
Methos	Posted - 2004.03.30 14:33:00 - [147] I am sorry if I appeared standoffish, and no offense taken. I whole heartedly agree with you. It just does seem that I have a better chance of getting a Ship bpo in some other field rather than in the Starship field. I would like to reiterate that I donÆt mind that I am not getting a bpo, to say I donÆt want one would be a lie, I would love one, but I can wait if thatÆs what it takesto get one, but I feel that ppl not in my field with a slight chance of getting one in the first place getting multiple bpoÆs of the same rare bp is a travesty and grave injustice to those that have spent the time and energy doing missions trying to boost their next to non-existent chances of getting one. "We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit." ARISTOTLE
Phaethon	Posted - 2004.04.20 17:52:00 - [148] Has there been any more double drops lately? Or is there just nothing dropping at all. WTB. Infifitrator I drones
Rancid Mare	Posted - 2004.05.29 10:30:00 - [149] Originally by: Phaethon Has there been any more double drops lately? Or is there just nothing dropping at all. if you have a look thru the mission section youll see the whole agent systems is falling apart. with no apparent care from ccp on the issue. very worrying indeed. Rancid Mare of the EveMarshals. Our Webby Recruitement Videos here
CodeFreeze	Posted - 2004.05.29 11:32:00 - [150] Originally by: Gan Howorth Just a thought..is anyone aware that computers cannot generate truly random numbers, it will create the same "random" number in a given situation. I think the C64 could because it used its on board sound chip's white sound (analogue) generator to do so. Don't mean to stir anything up but could this explain why the same people are getting the same rare BPs twice over. In fact, it's rather easy to generate a truly random number from a pseudo-random one. The trick I use all the time is to get the current date-time and Exclusive-Or (combine) the number with the pseudo-random one. Since the exact time of the event right down to a hundredth second was chosen by a human, the number is almost perfectly random. There are other semi-random things you can easily factor in, such as, say, the current number of players online etc.
Sherkaner	Posted - 2004.10.30 08:49:00 - [151] I had hoped this thread was dead for sure Please do not bump old threads, thanks forum rules \| [email protected]
Sherkaner	Posted - 2004.10.30 08:49:00 - [152] I had hoped this thread was dead for sure Please do not bump old threads, thanks forum rules \| [email protected]

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